Securing the food systems of Asian Mega- Deltas for climate and livelihood resilience (AMD) Lead: Bjoern Ole Sander (b.sander@irri.org) Co-Lead: Shakuntala Thilsted (s.thilsted@cgiar.org) Proposal November 23, 2021 Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 h Table of contents Summary table 4 1. General information 4 2. Context 6 2.1 Challenge statement 6 2.2 Measurable 3-year (end-of-Initiative) outcomes 6 2.3 Learning from prior evaluations and impact assessments (IA) 7 2.4 Priority-setting 8 2.5 Comparative advantage 9 2.6 Participatory design process 9 2.7 Projection of benefits 11 3. Research plans and associated theories of change (TOC) 16 3.1 Full Initiative theory of change 16 3.1.1 Full Initiative TOC diagram 18 3.2 Work Packages and Work Package TOCs 19 Work Package 1: Adapting deltaic production systems 19 Work Package 2: Nutrition sensitive deltaic agrifood systems 23 Work Package 3: De-risking delta-oriented value chains (VCs) 27 Work Package 4: Joined-up, gender equitable, inclusive deltaic systems governance 31 Work Package 5: Evidence-based delta development planning 35 4. Innovation Packages and Scaling Readiness Plan 39 5. Impact statements 39 5.1 Nutrition, health and food security 39 5.2 Poverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs 40 5.3 Gender equality, youth and social inclusion 41 5.4 Climate mitigation and adaptation 43 5.5 Environmental health and biodiversity 45 6. Monitoring, evaluation, learning and impact assessment (MELIA) 47 6.1 Result framework 47 6.2 MELIA plan 57 6.3 Planned MELIA studies and activities 59 7. Management plan and risk assessment 60 7.1 Management plan 60 7.2 Summary management plan Gantt table 61 7.3 Risk assessment 63 8. Policy compliance, and oversight 64 8.1 Research governance 64 Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 2 h 8.2 Open and FAIR data assets 64 9. Human resources 65 9.1 Initiative team 65 9.2 Gender, diversity and inclusion in the workplace 66 9.3 Capacity development 66 10. Financial resources 67 Annexes 68 References 69 Glossary Acronyms Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 3 h Summary table Initiative name Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and livelihood resilience (AMD) Primary Action Area Resilient Agrifood Systems Geographic scope Ganges Delta (Bangladesh, India) (Regional) Irrawaddy Delta (Myanmar) Mekong Delta (Cambodia, Vietnam) Budget US$30,000,000 1. General information Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and livelihood resilience (AMD) Proposal Lead: Bjoern Ole Sander (b.sander@irri.org) Proposal Co-Lead: Shakuntala Thilsted* (s.thilsted@cgiar.org) Initiative Design Team Name Gender Organization & duty station Role Bjoern Ole Sander M CGIAR, Vietnam Core (Lead) Shakuntala Thilsted F CGIAR, Malaysia Core (Deputy Lead) Benjamin Belton M CGIAR, Malaysia Core Deepa Joshi F CGIAR, Sri Lanka Core Timothy Joseph Krupnik M CGIAR, Bangladesh Core Paul Pavelic M CGIAR, Laos Core Cornelis Swaans M CGIAR, Vietnam Core Stephan Weise M CGIAR, Vietnam Core Sudhir Yadav M CGIAR, Philippines Core Veronica Doerr F Australian Centre for International Agricultural Core Research (ACIAR), Australia (External Advisory) Dagmar Wittine F Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Core Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Germany (External Advisory) Melinda Limlengco F CGIAR, Philippines IDT support Sanjiv De Silva M CGIAR Sri Lanka Reference group Michael Akester M CGIAR, Myanmar Reference group Amjath Babu M CGIAR, Bangladesh Reference Group Angelica Barlis F CGIAR, Vietnam Reference group Humnath Bhandari M CGIAR, Bangladesh Reference group Marie Charlotte-Buisson F CGIAR, Sri Lanka Reference group Mark Dubois M CGIAR, Cambodia Reference group Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 4 h Rica Flor F CGIAR, Cambodia Reference group James Garrett M CGIAR, Vietnam Reference group James Giles M CGIAR, Vietnam Reference Group Tuyen Huynh F CGIAR, Vietnam Reference group Nozomi Kawarazuka F CGIAR, Vietnam Reference group Alice Laborte F CGIAR, Philippines Reference group Samarendu Mohanty M CGIAR, Philippines Reference group Manoranjan Mondal M CGIAR, Bangladesh Reference group Hung Van Nguyen M CGIAR, Vietnam Reference group Nurmi Pangesti F CGIAR, Cambodia Reference group Ahmad Salahuddin M CGIAR, Bangladesh Reference group * During full proposal development Benjamin Belton assumed Shakuntala Thilsted’s responsibilities Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 5 h 2. Context 2.1 Challenge statement Home to 177 million people – 36% of them poor1 – the densely populated Asian Mega Deltas are biodiverse, fertile and productive food baskets dominated by rice, fisheries and aquaculture that also support millions beyond the deltas. Asian Mega Deltas are the world´s most important rice-growing areas. In Vietnam, 52% of rice2 (and 95% of exported rice), 60% of fruits and 70% of seafood3, the world’s major staple foods, are produced in the Mekong Delta. The Ayeyarwady Mega-Delta is where Myanmar grows about 70% of its rice and aquaculture4. Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta in Bangladesh and the Indian state of West Bengal is known as the Green Delta because it is one of the most fertile regions in the world. However, delta food systems are reaching a significant tipping point5. At the same time that governments look to deltas to achieve national development goals for food security, nutrition and poverty alleviation6, the tens of millions of small-scale producers who they hope will achieve this also face grave risks from the impacts of climate change, aggravated by the effects of inappropriate development pathways7. Recent data8 reveals that the Asian Mega Deltas are likely to be hit by serious impacts of climate change, including more frequent and more intense floods, salinization, water shortages and climate extremes that will slow down economic growth, further erode food security, and trigger new poverty traps and emerging hotspots of hunger9. As an example, saltwater intrusion, related to rising sea level, is becoming progressively more severe and affecting increasing areas of crop production. The GBM Delta is already impacted by sea level rise and saltwater intrusion has also been reported to impact agricultural productivity. Furthermore, in 2019–20, saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta resulted in estimated production losses of about 460,000 hectares. These and other stresses have led to an annual loss of GDP of 6% in Southeast Asia – over twice the global average and could severely cripple the vital economic activities linked to these systems. The challenge addressed by the AMD Initiative is to remove system barriers at community, national and regional levels to facilitate scaling of existing/emerging technologies and practices for transforming food systems towards greater climate resilience. This is the underlying precept of One CGIAR’s Securing the Food Systems of the Asian Mega-Deltas for Climate and Livelihood Resilience (AMD) Initiative, which aims to support the creation of resilient, inclusive, and productive deltas. At the same time, transformed food systems need to provide pathways out of poverty for millions, as they have done previously in certain parts of the Asian Mega-Deltas. As accelerated change is risky, the AMD Initiative also addresses challenges to nutrition security, financial investment, gender equity and social inclusion, and to the natural resources on which the resilience of the entire system depends10. It does so by building strong policy-science partnerships working with diverse actors and aligning them towards common goals. 2.2 Measurable 3-year (end-of-Initiative) outcomes Assuming full budget allocation for each year of the Initiative, AMD Initiative aims to achieve the following outcomes: EoI Outcome 1: By 2025, a network of inclusive Learning Alliances comprised of at least 200 stakeholder communities and 30 organizations in each delta and supported by at least three national/sub-national policies, will scale up diversification of agrifood systems in deltas, to Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 6 h accelerate adaptation by 150,000 smallholders and improve management of 100,000 hectares of land. EoI Outcome 2: By 2025, national ministries and major NGOs in at least three countries use AMD co-produced knowledge and evidence to table at least three nutrition sensitive interventions to reduce mortality, DALYs and micronutrient deficiencies, for 20,000 producers (80% women) and 100,000 consumers. EoI Outcome 3: By 2025, digital climate advisory and bundled services provided by public and private sector partners will be used by ≥ 0.8 million smallholders (≥ 29% women), with at least one financing partnership plan established to assure sustainability for further scaling. EoI Outcome 4: By 2025, at least three national governments or international development partners work with grassroots actors including marginalized women and youth to co-design gender equitable and socially inclusive joined-up natural resources and food systems governance policies or strategies. EoI Outcome 5: By 2025, high-level policymakers and development partners in at least two deltas involved in knowledge integration networks make public statements on the importance of One CGIAR and AMD and engage with AMD to help design climate adaptation-oriented policies, projects and investment plans with the nominal value of at least US$1.8 billion. The EoIs will further be refined during the inception phase when budget allocation is definite and detailed activities will be determined. 2.3 Learning from prior evaluations and impact assessments (IA) The design of One CGIAR’s AMD builds on evaluations of and learnings from the former CGIAR Research Programs, especially the Research Programs on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE), Rice (RICE) and Fish Agri-Food Systems (FISH). It responds to the recommendations of the CGIAR Research Program 2020 Reviews and 2021 Synthesis of Evaluative Evidence: Toward One CGIAR. Examples of major findings and responses include: ● A highly inclusive Initiative design process and structure designed to avoid research silos through inter-center teams in each WP and enables outcomes of other Initiatives by acting as a knowledge integrator. ● Purposeful inclusion of local partners in co-design and implementation of all research activities to ensure intrinsic capacity development. ● Incorporation of key successes of the CRPs in order to achieve fast outcomes and advance the most relevant science for development, e.g., CCAFS climate risk maps. ● Embracing MELIA as a dynamic research tool for adjusting and improving the impact pathway. ● Fostering partnerships for impact with national governments and strategic development partners by nurturing trust and operating “eye-to-eye”, e.g., through learning alliances. One CGIAR’s AMD further builds on partnerships and learnings from various bilateral projects in the focus regions. Key projects include: Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Collaborative Research on Sustainable Intensification in the Polders of Coastal Bangladesh (SIIL-Polder); De-RISK Southeast Asia funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU); Development of Rice-Fish Systems in the Ayeyarwady Delta and Mekong Delta funded by ACIAR; Closing the Yield Gaps in Asian With Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 7 h Reduce Environmental Footprints (CORIGAP) funded by the Swiss Agency for Development Cooperation (SDC) in six countries including Myanmar and Vietnam; the Feed the Future IPM Innovation Lab research on Ecologically based participatory IPM for rice in Cambodia. 2.4 Priority-setting Prioritizing the Mega Deltas of Asia As a regional Initiative, AMD was designed to ensure close alignment with the new CGIAR research strategy of “transforming food, land and water systems in a climate crisis”. The Mega- Deltas of Asia were selected as a geographical priority, as an exemplar of food systems in a highly threatened environment where land, water management and food production cannot be separated. Coastal agricultural land and ecosystems in the region account for some of the world’s major food production areas, providing livelihoods for rural communities and contributing very significantly to domestic food supplies, as well as being a major source of exports11. These coastal areas and deltas in Asia are becoming increasingly vulnerable to the growing threat of climate change, and experience frequent flooding, sea level rise, saline intrusion, cyclones, and coastal inundation. Country and delta selection prioritization AMD identified deltas and countries in Asia with the highest potential for generating significant outcomes, particularly taking into consideration: (1) Significance to national and regional food security, (2) Vulnerability to climate change impacts, (3) Level of economic development, (4) Linkages to previous CGIAR work and research upon which to build, (5) Alignment with donor priorities and interests, (6) Availability of national and CGIAR experts in country, and (7) Strong willingness of stakeholders to collaborate and partner with AMD. Based on these criteria, the Ganges, Irrawaddy and Mekong mega deltas, located in Bangladesh and India, Myanmar, and Vietnam and Cambodia, respectively, were chosen. These deltas and countries are considered a crucial food resource at the national and regional levels and are highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change12 as illustrated in the table below. There is also a strong CGIAR presence in these countries (availability of at least two CGIAR offices per country) and their selection takes into account previous and ongoing Agriculture Research for Development (R4D) studies and learnings on which AMD will build. Main Delta Country agriculture Main challenges Climatic Vulnerability due product risks to sea-level rise Bangladesh, Rice, Urbanization, Ganges India aquaculture salinity, water Extreme Extreme management Irrawaddy Myanmar Rice, aquaculture Water management Extreme Low Rice, Mekong Cambodia, aquaculture, Saltwater intrusion, Vietnam vegetables and water management Moderate Extreme fruits Note: Table adapted from Schneider, 2020. Work Package and Innovation prioritization Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 8 h The design of the different Work Packages including the development of research questions, methods, and innovations was an iterative process. This involved comprehensive reviews of scientific literature, alignment with national priorities and strategy documents, as well as conducting surveys and consultations with national and regional partners, and reference group members within the CGIAR. Work Packages were continually reviewed to ensure responsiveness to the key challenges of the different deltas while taking into account the capabilities, knowledge, and assets of the CGIAR. Further detail on the prioritization process and justification for the development of Work Packages can be found in Annex 2.4.. 2.5 Comparative advantage AMD is well positioned to address the defined challenge and achieve impact through its innovations and partnerships as illustrated by: ● Strong buy-in achieved from local and regional stakeholders through nine engagement events in 2020 and 2021, totaling more than 400 participants, from multiple sectors spanning demand, innovation and scaling. With stakeholder inputs incorporated and by building on established partnerships with governments and development partners, AMD is ready to initiate impactful joint adaptive research immediately. ● Working in established networks with government, civil society, financial institutions and development partners to identify targeted financial investment opportunities to promote adoption of inclusive, climate resilient, environmentally responsible practices. These include the initial operation of digitally driven agro- climatic advisories and proven options for circular agro-economy. ● Working in advancing economies with stable institutions and demonstrated implementation capability will ensure rapid diffusion of innovations and impact. R4D in Vietnam will address challenges in a middle-income country context that will be relevant for current low-income countries in the near future. ● Strong emphasis on the co-production of knowledge and co-design and implementation of interventions and policies through multi-stakeholder processes to build individual and institutional capacity, and enhance uptake of new science outputs. ● The CGIAR has a broad range of expertise across disciplines and strong convening capabilities, enabling lessons learnt elsewhere in the region to be effectively transferred to the integrated food-land-water context of the Mega-Deltas. 2.6 Participatory design process National stakeholder consultations The design of the AMD proposal is strongly demand-driven. AMD was initially built on the Two Degree Initiative (2DI), a CGIAR Initiative to accelerate research and development on climate change through nine regional challenges. With the Asian Mega-Deltas challenge identified as one of the nine regional challenges, five demand-mapping and priority-setting workshops were held in 2020 with 168 participants involved in activities in the Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mekong and Ayeyarwaddy Deltas. Stakeholders from these workshops and consultation processes confirmed the identification of increasing climate resilience in the mega deltas as a core research problem. Key insights gained from the listening events were summarized in a 2DI AMD report and include local partners requesting a strong emphasis on adaptive research focusing on new technologies and practices, purposeful inclusion of local communities in research activities (e.g. to leverage local knowledge) and a coherent research-development-deployment approach through which Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 9 h targeted reforms meet needs on the ground. These insights and the proposed R4D strategy were used to build the AMD pre-concept note. After adjustment of the pre-concept, the value proposition was validated in four national consultation workshops with more 250 participants organized in 2021 for (1) Cambodia, (2) Vietnam, (3) Bangladesh and India and (4) Myanmar. Workshops consist of presentations and breakout sessions. The first three workshops brought together a range of stakeholders including policymakers, development workers, researchers, and academicians working for agricultural R4D while the latter consultation involved only those from NGOs and civil society and was done in coordination with the Resilient Aquatic Food Systems (RAqFS) IDT. Stakeholders re-confirmed their endorsement and commitment to the AMD Initiative during these workshops, with key stakeholders from the five focus countries providing letters of support, compiled in Annex 2.6.1. IDT core and reference group member writeshops Taking into account the inputs from the national consultation workshops, three writeshops were held with core IDT members and expanded reference groups for the Ganges, Irrawaddy, and Mekong deltas, comprising 16 colleagues representing eight CG centers, to synthesize key insights and provide an initial theory of change (TOC) for the different Work Packages. Potential innovation and scaling partners were engaged during the development of the TOCs of individual Work Packages. The proposal was also developed ensuring alignment with national development plans, strategies and priorities, which are specified and included in Annex 2.6.2. Bilateral and multilateral donor consultations AMD had coordination calls with multilateral and bilateral institutions to present the proposal and obtain initial feedback. Donors shared their development priorities in the different deltas and provided recommendations on how to ensure the AMD proposal aligns well with their ongoing and planned Initiatives, details of which can be found in Annex 2.6.3. Potential investors engaged by AMD Bilateral donors Multilateral donors & foundations ● Australia (ACIAR) ● Asian Development Bank ● Germany (GIZ/BMZ) ● Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation ● South Korea (RDA) ● World Bank ● Switzerland (SDC) ● USA (USAID) Coordination with other CGIAR Initiative Design Teams AMD held initial discussions with 16 IDTs across the three different Action Areas, considered to be most relevant to AMD, to identify geographic and thematic synergies and potential modalities for cooperation. IDTs engaged by AMD are outlined in the table below and potential areas for collaboration as outlined in Annex 2.6.4. CGIAR IDTs engaged by AMD Resilient Agrifood Systems Systems Transformation Genetic Innovation High synergies ● RAqFS ● HER+ ● EiA ● Digital Technologies ● TAFSSA ● ClimBeR ● MITIGATE+ Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 10 h ● Resilient Cities ● NPS ● NEXUS Gains ● Foresight and Metrics ● ShiFT Medium-low synergies ● One Health ● SeEdQUAL ● Plant Health ● Market Intelligence and ● Ukami Ustawi Product Profiling Note: Full CGIAR IDT titles are found in Annex 2.6.4 High profile events Awareness of the AMD IDT and the key challenges it addresses is high among country partners and internationally due to participation in high-profile events in partnership with the ‘Living Deltas Hub’. Side-events at three international conferences have been organized at (1) Gobeshona 2021, (2) Amsterdam Water Week and (3) COP26. Interaction and discussions during these events helped to further promote the Initiative. 2.7 Projection of benefits AMD will contribute to all five CGIAR Impact Areas during 2022–2030, in keeping with our systemic approach to deltaic development and resilience. Moreover, the Initiative brings together key elements of development in deltas to enhance synergies and reduce trade-offs: WP1 establishes adaptation processes that recognize local synergies; WP2 ensures that gains in productivity do not prejudice nutrition; WP3 supports investment by the poor and by women; WP4 pursues ‘joined up’ governance of food systems, as well as equitable gains for marginalized women, youth and smallholders relying on diverse natural resources (NR); WP5 provides strategic oversight of multiple drivers of change in deltas. We have not included these in our assessment of projected benefits. We also anticipate synergies with other Initiatives as mentioned in the TOC (section 3) as well as in Annex 2.6.4. However, we have not assumed additional impact from these synergies in this set of projections, to ensure estimates are conservative and to avoid double counting between Initiatives. All details of the calculations and other references used can be found in Annex 2.7. The projections below transparently estimate reasonable orders of magnitude for impacts which could arise as a result of the impact pathways set out in the Initiative’s theories of change.  Initiatives contribute to these impact pathways, along with other partners and stakeholders. For each Impact Area, projections consider breadth (numbers reached), depth (expected intensity of effect per unit) and probability (a qualitative judgement reflecting the overall degree of certainty or uncertainty that the impact pathway will lead to the projected order of magnitude of impact). Projections will be updated during delivery to help inform iterative, evidence-driven, dynamic management by Initiatives as they maximize their potential contribution to impact. Projected benefits are not delivery targets, as impact lies beyond CGIAR’s sphere of control or influence. Nutrition, health and food security # of people benefiting from relevant CGIAR innovations: People in AMDs are anticipated to benefit from improved nutrition via 3 pathways: (1) directly, via nutrition sensitive interventions (WP2); (2) indirectly, via nutrition sensitive policies (WP2); (3) indirectly, via higher incomes and averted income losses from enhanced agricultural performance (WP1), adoption of Digital Climate Advisory Services (DCAS) (WP3), and Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 11 h more inclusive cross-sectoral governance (WP4). We limit estimates to the direct pathway due to insufficient data. Estimates are therefore at the lower bound of the Initiative’s sphere of influence. Multiple studies demonstrate robustly the direct impacts of nutrition sensitive interventions on human nutrition and health in AMD target geographies13. A nutrition sensitive aquaculture program in Bangladesh is projected to reduce annual deaths by 129 per 100,000, save 9090 DALYs annually, and reduce vitamin A inadequacy prevalence by 16.8% for adopting women (age 15–50) and their children (age <=5)14. We assume three comparable nutrition sensitive interventions are possible and estimate end-of-Initiative (2030) impacts, based on seven years of implementation. The program could save 5,700 lives (lifesaving), 191,00 DALYs (transformative) and ensure vitamin A adequacy for 1.24 million people (substantial), 80% of whom are women aged 15–50 and 20% children <5, all at a high level of certainty. Poverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs # of people benefiting from relevant CGIAR innovations: Climate-smart agricultural practices (WP1), DCAS and bundled services (WP3), and nutrition sensitive interventions (WP2) will contribute to poverty reduction by boosting farm incomes and employment, but due to insufficient data, we estimate only numbers of people benefitting through the direct poverty reduction impacts of improved natural resource governance (WP4). We take involvement in fishing as a livelihood activity as a proxy for natural resource dependence. We estimate the number of fishers in AMDs to be 4.06 million15. This estimate accounts for known populations of fishers in deltas, national estimates of fisher numbers, and ratios of fishing households in deltas to the national population, where fishing activities are particularly heavily concentrated16. In Bangladesh, improved governance dramatically increased both catch volume and value, and raised the incomes of fishing households by 65%17. Assuming that improved natural resource governance could reach a modest 10% of natural resource dependent people in AMDs directly by 203018, we project substantial impacts (50% permanent increase in income) for 406,500 people, with a high level of probability. # of people assisted to exit poverty: Increases in agricultural productivity generate economic spillovers via production, consumption, and labor market linkages19. Economic multipliers from agricultural growth are larger than from other sectors, and more pro-poor20. A 1% increase in agricultural productivity generates a 0.91% fall in the share of the population living below the lower international poverty line (US$1.90/day), while a 1% increase in agricultural GDP results in a 1.61% increase in incomes for the poorest quintile21. We estimate potential to extend improved agronomic practices to 2.6 million ha of cropland (WP1) based on expert elicitation (Annex 2.7). Accounting for average farm size, household size and poverty rates, 14.3 million people will benefit from increased productivity and income, of whom 1.7 million below the lower poverty line. We assume three levels of agricultural productivity gain from the literature on rice production in South and Southeast Asia (low: 4%22, medium: 10%23, high: 20%24), and estimate the potential number of hectares under each (Annex 2.7). Given an elasticity of poverty reduction of 0.91%, we estimate conservatively the number of people assisted to exit poverty to be 175,000. Probability is high given the robustness of the relationship between agricultural growth and poverty reduction, and our rigorous approach to evaluating potential for improved practices and productivity gains. Gender equality, youth and social inclusion # of women benefiting from relevant CGIAR innovations. We hypothesize four pathways by which women will benefit - as: Members of smallholder households gaining income from improved farming practices (WP1); Participants in nutrition sensitive Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 12 h agricultural interventions (WP2); Users of DCAS (WP3); Natural resource users benefitting from improved governance (WP4). We estimate 36% of potential WP1 beneficiaries (2.07 million) and 29% of WP3 (1.41 million) will be women, based on the proportion of women in the farming workforce, adjusted for gender differentiated access to digital communications. 100% of beneficiaries of nutrition sensitive interventions (WP2) will be women aged 15–50 or children under age 5 (children assumed to account for 20%), meaning 80% (1.15 million) will be women. Direct participation in fishing (our proxy for natural resource dependence) by women is low in South Asia (3%) and Southeast Asia (12%)25. 37,000 women stand to benefit directly from improved fisheries governance. However, this figure excludes women benefiting indirectly through fish processing and trading, or directly from other types of improved natural resource governance (WP4). With a high level of confidence, we predict the potential for 4.67 million women (38% of 12.4 million beneficiaries) to benefit directly by 2030, in a gender responsive manner. Climate adaptation and mitigation # of people benefiting from relevant CGIAR innovations: We estimate numbers of people adapting to climate through use of DCAS (WP3). and improved agronomic practices (WP1). Income gains for farms receiving DCAS average 25%26. We estimate the potential number of people in AMDs benefiting from DCAS by 2030 to be 4.8 million, assuming conservatively that DCAS contributed to by the AMD Initiative will be used by 10% of working age delta populations employed in agriculture. This is a low estimate of potential reach as explicitly provided DCAS through digital tools/platforms have adoption rates of 10–30%27. With an average permanent income gain of 25%, depth of impact would fall between significant and substantial. Rates of phone penetration are high in all AMD countries (ranging from 84–143 subscriptions/100 people)28 and smartphone use is increasing rapidly, making a high probability of success likely. However, gendered differences in phone ownership and access persist in South Asia29. Accounting for this gap, we assume women’s uptake of advisories will be somewhat lower than men’s, accounting for 29% of users of information (1.41 million people). In addition, 14.3 million people will benefit from agronomic practices that support climate adaptation (WP1), based on a potential area of 2.6 million ha under improved management, as estimated by expert elicitation, and average farm and household size. # of tonnes CO2 equivalent emissions avoided The Asian Mega-Deltas are agricultural emission hotspots30. WP5 and WP1 will contribute to GHG reduction from rice production through output 5.2, in partnership with MITIGATE+. We have estimated GHG emissions from rice production in four countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Bangladesh) and show in annex 2.7 delta-region emissions as well as national emissions because national mitigation plans (e.g., NDCs) usually do not identify specific sub-national areas. The most important mitigation options are alternate- wetting-and-drying (AWD) and mid-season-drainage (MSD) which are also present in some of the countries’ NDCs. Additionally, we estimate the reduction potential of low- emissions straw management (SM) and site-specific N management. We conducted detailed climatic GIS-based suitability assessments for AWD and MSD in Vietnam and Bangladesh and imputed the suitable area in Cambodia and Myanmar. The assumption for SM is that 50% of straw is currently burnt, while 50% is incorporated into the soil. The resulting upper ceiling of mitigation is reduced by a factor of 0.6 (i.e., “cost-effective mitigation potential” following Roe et al., 202131 and Griscom et al., 201732) to represent economic feasibility of mitigation action. We arrive at an economically feasible mitigation potential of 17 Mt CO2e/yr for the total rice area (of which 7.81 Mt CO2e/yr is in the delta regions) for four countries. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 13 h # $ climate adaptation investments AMD’s climate adaptation benefits follow five pathways. (1) 0.1% (2022) to 10% (2030) of 15.73 million agricultural households in deltas (70.8 million people) are likely to invest in new adaptation activities33,34 (estimated gains at $150 year-1 household-1, i.e., 12.6% of farm income)35,36, as a result of learning alliances on technologies and digital advisories, culminating in $786 million from 2022 to 2030. (2) Adoption of AMD innovations (e.g., insurance, credit schemes)37,38 will offset losses and damage associated with extreme weather, which are projected to be 0.2% (2022) to 20% (2030) of the 0.5% GDP loss year- 1 experienced in the AMDs39, generating US$214 million in funds saved (35% of losses averted by affected households). (3) The Initiative’s catalytic value chain actions in AMDs are anticipated to contribute to 0.01% (2022) to 5% (2030) of private (internal)40 investment in adaptation (~3% of agricultural GDP41,42 in the AMDs), reaching US$122.51 million by 2030. (4) Regional experience43,44 points to an estimated 0.2% (2022) to 20% (2030) contribution to governmental investment (assumed to be 0.5% of agricultural GDP, increasing to 1.5% by 2030)45, worth US$315.6 million by 2030 through adaptation investment planning and creation of diversified deltaic agricultural systems (increasing farm income by 16%). Finally, (5) evidence suggests that AMD’s innovations will shape 2.5% (2022) to 50% (2030) of multilateral agricultural development investments (growing 10% year-1 from US$0.06 billion to US$0.1 billion in the AMDs46), worth $385 million (resulting in 20% increase in farm income). The aggregate benefits from these pathways are anticipated to be worth US$1.82 billion by 2030. Environmental health and biodiversity # of hectares under improved management: AMD addresses soil health, biodiversity, and ecosystem services mainly through WP1, WP4 and WP5. The main pathway for achieving environmental benefits includes fine-scale land suitability assessment47 to identify diverse agri-production options. AMD will target and scale resource conserving practices at the farm- and landscape level through improved agronomy48 (managing soil carbon, nutrient management49, salinity management50, crop choice51, reducing agrochemical use), improved rice-fish systems52, appropriate water management53, sustainable intensification with diverse crops54, and climate-smart adaptation planning tools55. Based on prior project experience, social learning56is to encourage the adoption of innovations57 and reduce trade-offs between environmental objectives and rural livelihoods. With experience from past58 and building on ongoing59 research and development initiatives, we expect to achieve ~100,000 hectares area under improved management by 2024 and at least 2.6 million hectares by 2030. In some deltas, the ongoing initiatives like “1 must 5 reductions” in the Mekong, and the 2100 Delta Plan in Bangladesh assure aligned governmental support that will increase adoption rates with a high certainty for these approaches. However, the medium uncertainties in the Irrawaddy lead to an overall rating of medium to high probability of achieving these targets. Finally, we anticipate a high degree of synergies with other IDTs, especially SeEdQUAL, RAqFS, EiA, Digital Systems, ClimBeR and TAFSSA, to further add to the environmental benefits. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 14 h Impact Area Indicator Breadth Depth Probability 5700 people (80% High: 50%–80% expectation of achieving women) Lifesaving (5,700 mortalities avoided) these impacts by 2030 Nutrition, health & # people benefiting from relevant CGIAR 191,000 people Transformative (191,000 DALYs High: 50%–80% expectation of achieving food security innovations (80% women) averted) these impacts by 2030 1.24 million people Substantial (health benefits from High: 50%–80% expectation of achieving (80% women) reaching vitamin A adequacy) these impacts by 2030 # people benefiting from relevant CGIAR 406,500 Substantial (50% permanent increase Moderate: 30%–50% expectation of Poverty reduction, innovations (9% women) in income) achieving these impacts by 2030 livelihoods & jobs # people exiting poverty 175,000 people - High: 50%–80% expectation of achieving (50% women) these impacts by 2030 Gender responsive to gender transformative (different needs of men Gender equality, youth & social # women benefiting from relevant CGIAR 4.67 million people and women are identified and Moderate: 30%–50% expectation of inclusion innovations (100% women) differentially met across AMD WPs (1,2,3) and key structural barriers to achieving these impacts by 2030 gender equality and social inclusion identified and tackled (WP4)) # tonnes CO equivalent emissions 17 Mt - Moderate: 30%–50% expectation of 2 achieving these impacts by 2030 Climate change # of people benefiting from relevant 4.8 million people Substantial (50% permanent increase High: 50%–80% expectation of achieving adaptation & CGIAR innovations (29% women) in income) these impacts by 2030 mitigation US$1.82 billion # $ climate adaptation investments cumulative to Significant Moderate: 30%–50% expectation of 2030 achieving these impacts by 2030 High: 41–60% expectations of achieving Environmental # of hectares under improved Significant (0.9 million hectares) this impact under “significant and health and management 2.6 million Substantial (1 million hectares) substantial” categories by 2030 biodiversity Transformative (0.7 million hectares) Medium to High: ~60% expectations of achieving this impact under “transformative” category by 2030 Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 15 h 3. Research plans and associated theories of change (TOC) 3.1 Full Initiative theory of change Home to 177 million people (35% of them poor) and food provider for many more, the AMDs are an immensely important element of Asian food systems that are under pressure to produce more, even while threatened by the effects of climate change. The overall goal of this Initiative is to therefore establish accelerated but balanced local adaptation of delta food systems while ensuring gender equitable, inclusive and sustainable growth. We summarize the TOC below. Deltas are strongly interconnected systems. Consequently, the Initiative takes a systemic approach to support accelerated adaptation locally (WP1) while also protecting against threats to nutrition (WP2), investment (WP3) and the natural resources on which the system depends (WP4). WP5 provides regional foresight to advise of longer-term threats and opportunities. Research is embedded locally. Most (~80%) of the activities (WPs 1–4) focus on local food system adaptation, WP5 provides a regional perspective and connects local activities to regional demands and opportunities. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 16 h With fertile soils and available water, deltas can be capable of very high productivity. At the local scale, WP1 (Adapting Deltaic Production Systems) builds networks with partners to establish learning alliances within which communities can explore new agronomy-enabled opportunities for sustainable intensification and engage with new value chains to meet burgeoning demand from within and outside delta regions. The goal is to accelerate growth and realize a substantial if highly variable potential. Acceleration comes with risks, which are addressed by WP2, WP3 and WP4. WP2 (Nutrition sensitive Deltaic Agrifood Systems) works in parallel with WP1 to ensure that these systems do not lose capacity to deliver diverse and nutritious food as they intensify. Food systems need to adapt in ways that enhance, not jeopardize, critical nutritional capabilities of these systems. Investment is essential to rapid adaptation and WP3 (De-risking delta-oriented value chains) is needed to support millions of smallholders and other value chain actors to invest in the face of large uncertainties relating to climate, markets and local variations in land suitability. The final element is provided by WP4 (Joined up, gender equitable, socially inclusive deltaic NR-Food Systems governance) which ensures that investments and innovations in improving food security do not compromise the local NR base and that inclusion, sustainability and resilience are core drivers of change. This WP works to correct the lack of coordination between water, land, environment and food institutions governing different aspects of highly integrated natural resource, water and food systems, which often lead to exclusionary outcomes, with overall outcomes of depleting the NR base. WP5 (Evidence-based delta development planning) delivers region-wide perspectives and cross-basin insights on climate threats, drivers and opportunities. It does so through a network for information exchange and dialogue on which to develop strategies to cope with rapidly changing conditions. The EOI outcomes describe different aspects of processes to put the deltas on a fast-track for adaptation while ensuring balanced development towards the goals of food and nutrition security, gender equity and social inclusion, poverty alleviation, climate adaptation and resilience, and sustainability. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 17 h 3.1.1 Full Initiative TOC diagram Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 18 h 3.2 Work Packages and Work Package TOCs Work Package 1: Adapting deltaic production systems Work Package 1: Adapting deltaic production systems Asian Mega-Deltas are under intense pressure to grow while adapting to threats of flooding, drought, salinity, and heat stress associated with climate change. Farmers and other value chain actors are ready to explore new production practices and Work Package main opportunities for value creation, but what options are best for them locally? This focus and Work Package will synthesize existing research into a fine-scale interactive tool to prioritization explore promising local options with farmers. It will be implemented through learning alliances around value chains to design locally adapted agronomy packages and agri-business models to accelerate the adoption of diversified production systems that are better adapted to the effects of climate change. Geographic scope Ganges delta: Bangladesh, India Regional Irrawaddy delta: Myanmar Mekong delta: Cambodia and Vietnam Work Package 1: The science WP1 will facilitate scaling innovation to support resilient diversified deltaic production systems and reduce environment footprints and climatic risks. This will be done by convening stakeholders in learning alliances, providing technical knowhow on land suitability and agronomy, and enabling value chain development. Specific objective Research questions Methods Objective 1: 1.1. What are the best-bet 1.1.1. Spatial analysis and mixed methods Farm and landscape production systems for deltaic- modelling to assess stakeholders’ risk and level adaptive suitability climate adaptation and vulnerability perceptions, at spatial scale. assessments for mitigation? 1.2.1. Tools and methods including field production system 1.2. How, where and when can experiments, RCTs, econometric modelling, and diversification and low carbon emission pathways policy analysis for measuring multiple impacts of climatic risk reduction. support food system low carbon emission technologies. transformation? (Linked with WP5) Objective 2: Strengthen 2.1 How can learning alliances 2.1.1 Establishing and activating inclusive social learning and best facilitate social learning multistakeholder learning alliances60 innovation through around agricultural innovations inclusive learning to support climate adaptation 2.1.2 & 2.2.1 Mixed methods assessments of alliances to identify and resilience? the role of social learning, stakeholders and opportunities to mitigate institutional change in facilitating innovative and adapt to climate 2.2 Who are the key actors that practices, and their effects. risks need to be involved to scale the diversified production system? Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 19 h Objective 3: Develop 3.1 What existing underutilized 3.1.1 Stakeholder surveys, participatory improved agronomy agronomic innovations and assessment, adaptive trials and comparative packages for diversified knowledge can be modified and analysis of innovations delta production scaled to enhance climate systems, tailored to local resilience? 3.2.1 RCTs, econometric analysis, trade-off contexts for increased analysis, cost-benefit analysis, behavioral climate resilience. 3.2 How can existing production analysis, inclusive food value chain analysis etc. systems be adapted to meet demand for nutritious foods, 3.2.2 Assessing the production systems using sustainability framework61 while mitigating climate impacts? (Linked with WP2) 3.3.1 Inclusive agrifood value chain 3.3 Do current diversification development framework, women empowerment trajectories support outcomes in agrifood value chain, behavioral analysis. that are gender equitable and 3.3.2 Mixed methods and decision support tools socially inclusive, and how can to analyze methods, drivers and constraints for these be strengthened? (Linked scaling up; and use of ASAT tool62 for with WP4) assessing and improving the scaling potential of agricultural technology Objective 4: Develop 4.1 What supply chain actor 4.1.1 and 4.2.1 Participatory market chain input supply chains and roles and capacities are required approaches and mixed methods markets to support to support production systems production and diversification, and how can consumption of these be strengthened? diversified products. 4.2 Can community-based or collective agri-business models be used to facilitate scaling of diversified production systems? Outputs 1. High resolution suitability assessment of agri-production systems in deltas and characterization based on current biophysical and socio-economic profiles to accelerate farmer centric learning and reducing climatic risk. 2. Learning alliances established to facilitate gender inclusive social learning around value chain development within complex and highly variable delta food systems. 3. Improved agronomy packages formulated with stakeholders and designed for delta systems scaled through stakeholder organizations. 4. Agri-business models developed for selected value chains to support diversified production systems trialed with stakeholders. WP1 outcomes 1. Demand and scaling partners mainstream gender inclusive social learning process through learning alliance 2. Partners incorporate “improved agronomy at scale” advisories into their organizational system 3. Scaling partners have improved access to value chain facilities/services Work Package 1: The theory of change Causal process The end-of-Initiative outcome for the WP1 is to facilitate scaling of existing and emerging technologies and practice solutions for diversified production systems through the establishment of learning alliances and national/sub-national policies to benefit at least 150,000 smallholder farmers. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 20 h WP1 identifies, synthesizes, evaluates, adapts, and scales interventions to improve the deltaic production system in order to adapt to and mitigate the effects of salinity, flooding, drought, terminal heats, and sinking land. By 2030, the Initiative is targeting to bring at least 2.6 million hectares under improved management. This Work Package’s TOC considers that addressing production system barriers to scaling (where, what, for whom, and how) as well as capacity to use and scale innovations can improve the delta community’s income and livelihood while mitigating and adapting to climatic risks. The main constraints to system improvement in the deltas include the biophysical and social complexity of the landscape, diverse climate change impact at micro-level, low investment capacity of farmers community and deeply entrenched gender and social inequalities. Low technical and extension capacity is another major obstacle to achieving transformative production system changes, which increase the risk of investments in production systems and hamper scaling. By establishing learning alliances, the WP will bring stakeholders together to identify knowledge gaps, agronomic needs, scaling opportunities and pathways for improved production systems. Interactive tools will communicate local options for agronomy improvement based on biophysical and social profiling of landscape. These will inform farmers, agri-entrepreneurs, extensionists and private companies of the potential production system options in different parts of deltas. The improvement in agronomy of delta production systems will be focused through decision-enabling tools and approaches, e.g., what are the options to manage high salinity at the end of the dry season and where will they apply?’ The establishment of agri-business models will support the value chain of diversified production systems in collaboration with WP3. We assumed the capacity building and support to establish learning alliances will trigger changes in the system to incentivize the stakeholders to be part of the social learning process. Note: TOC assumptions are included in the diagram. Key partners The synthesis of knowledge in the region will rely heavily on collaboration and engagement with demand, scaling and innovation partners to inform system-level barriers and scale potential production options. Further detail can be found in Annex 3. Synergies with other Work Packages and Initiatives WP1 and WP2 will work together to ensure balance between goals of production and nutrition in locally diverse systems. WP3 supports investment under uncertainty through targeted DCAS. The learning alliances will be supported through WP4 work on ‘joined-up governance’. The strategic insights through WP5 on climate change impacts will guide the tailoring and implementation of WP1 innovations. The AMD will work with other thematic IDTs as innovation partners e.g., the suitability assessment with Resilient Aquaculture Food Systems. AMD will work with SeEdQUAL for climate resilient varieties of various crops. Similarly, the advisories for diversified production systems will be built on key outputs and innovations of CRPs as well as innovations from Digital Systems IDTs and Excellence in Agronomy. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 21 h Work Package 1: TOC diagram Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 22 h Work Package 2: Nutrition sensitive deltaic agrifood systems Work Package 2: Nutrition sensitive deltaic agrifood systems Deltaic food systems are transforming extremely rapidly in response to multiple demand and supply side drivers63, resulting in changing consumption and production practices with positive and negative nutrition outcomes that are highly Work Package main socially differentiated, but poorly understood 64. An inadequate knowledge base and focus and limited policy coherence hamper the design of nutrition sensitive actions 65 that can prioritization mitigate negative nutrition outcomes and leverage opportunities for positive change66. This Work Package promotes sustainable production and consumption of nutritious foods in Asian Mega Deltas by involving institutional stakeholders in the co-production of knowledge to support design of nutrition sensitive interventions67 to support well-nourished, healthy people and resilient agro ecosystems Geographic scope Ganges delta: Bangladesh, India Regional Mekong delta: Cambodia and Vietnam Work Package 2: The science WP2 seeks to ensure that deltaic food systems sustain and enhance nutrition security equitably, in a context of rapid change. The first requirement of designing appropriate nutrition sensitive interventions is to understand the characteristics of these systems and their socially differentiated nutrition implications. Specific objective Research questions Methods Objective 1: Assess 1.1 How are deltaic food consumption 1.1.1 Analyze existing datasets to evaluate changes in deltaic patterns changing in a context of changes in food consumption and food consumption rapid socioeconomic and micronutrient adequacy by social group. patterns, in relation to environmental change, and with what Conduct new surveys where existing data demand side drivers of implications for human nutrition? are inadequate. change, to reveal socially differentiated 1.2 How are gendered and 1.1.2 Econometric analysis of relationships nutrition outcomes. generational consumption between changing diets, micronutrient preferences and practices changing intakes, and demand-side drivers69. due to migration, urbanization, changing time constraints and 1.2.1 Ethnographic studies and structured aspirations68? surveys of how and why food consumption preferences and practices are changing for women and men in different age and socioeconomic groups, with what nutrition implications66. Objective 2: Evaluate 2.1 How are climate change, 2.1.1 & 2.2.1 In depth case studies from how deltaic ecosystem modification, and demand purposively selected sites spanning a agroecosystems and shifts altering deltaic agro-ecologies representative range of deltaic food production and cropping patterns72, with what agroecosystems to assess how climatic, practices are implications for supply of nutritious environmental, demographic, and market transforming in foods and nutrition security? drivers have affected nutrition security for response to multiple drivers7071, to reveal 2.2 How is the nutrient yield (quantity different social groups. socially differentiated of micronutrients produced per unit 2.3.1 Statistically representative surveys nutrition outcomes. area of land 73) of land- and water- case study villages to assess nutrient yields based food production systems of different production systems, and access changing in response drivers, with and control by different social groups. what implications for equity and gendered access and control? 2.3.2 Modelling current farming systems nutrient yields at the deltaic scale and estimating changes under future scenarios. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 23 h Objective 3: Identify 3.1 Which forms of business case will 3.1.1 Stakeholder engagement in nutrition sensitive motivate decision makers to support identification and co-design of menu of policies, and appropriate nutrition sensitive actions appropriate nutrition sensitive interventions interventions to support for different deltaic population sub- and policies. equitable and groups?75 sustainable 3.1.2 Cost-benefit analyses of proposed consumption and nutrition sensitive options, including production of nutritious differentiated nutrition outcomes for foods in deltas in the population sub-groups. face of rapid change.74 Outputs (for each delta) 1. Typology of effects of food systems transformation on deltaic consumption and production patterns and practices, differentiated by gender, age, etc. 2. Quantified, socially differentiated evidence of nutrition outcomes of deltaic food systems transformation. 3. Menu of costed nutrition sensitive business cases tailored for AMDs. 4. Guidelines for implementing nutrient sensitive actions in deltaic food systems. WP 2 outcomes 1. Socially differentiated nutrition implications of deltaic food systems transformation better understood by institutional stakeholders 2. Most cost-effective nutrition sensitive actions identified and agreed with key stakeholders 3. Nutrition sensitive thinking and approaches internalized by partner institutions in two mega-deltas 4. Stakeholders in two mega-deltas have committed to implement recommended nutrition sensitive actions. Work Package 2: The theory of change Causal process Nutrition sensitive approaches make nutritionally rich foods and dietary diversity central to overcoming micronutrient deficiencies and malnutrition76. Nutrition sensitive interventions are typically intersectoral and involve coordination among stakeholders such as ministries of agriculture and health to identify nutrition problems among target groups, design ways to increase access to nutritious foods, and design shared indicators for measuring progress. Pathways and entry points include policies, agricultural value chains, producer groups, and innovation hubs77. Deltaic food systems are transforming extremely rapidly in response to complex drivers, and nutrition sensitive policies and interventions are in their infancy. This context makes it important to establish a solid evidence base as the foundation for design of effective nutrition sensitive actions. WP2 will generate a comprehensive quantitative- qualitative understanding of transformations in deltaic food systems from the consumption (demand) and production (supply) sides, drivers of these changes, and their implications for human nutrition. This information will be used to design a menu of nutrition sensitive interventions and build business cases for their adoption ex-ante through cost-benefit analyses incorporating projected nutrition outcomes and accounting for the political economy of the policy environment in each target geography. Robust quantification of projected impacts of nutrition sensitive policies and interventions will bolster support for adoption by key stakeholders. Decision makers and researchers in target geographies will be engaged in Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 24 h active collaboration in research, design, and outreach to build support and buy in and grow the capacity of participating individuals and institutions. Key partners: Will include: (1) key government ministries or agencies; (2) national and international NGOs; (3) donors and multilaterals; (4) researchers at universities and think tanks; (5) agri-businesses; and (6) members of deltaic communities. Further detail can be found in Annex 3. Assumptions: (1) The business case for nutrition sensitive actions is sufficiently compelling for stakeholders to take up recommended actions. (2) Key stakeholders participate in knowledge co-production. (3) Political conditions permit continuation of research activities and policy engagement (except Myanmar). (4) The COVID-19 pandemic attenuates sufficiently to allow a return to face-to-face research activities. Synergies with other Work Packages and Initiatives Strong synergies between WP1 and WP2 will ensure that critical aspects of nutrition are valued by actors as they pursue rapid adaptation of production systems; WP3 will help to de- risk aspects of production systems that are of particular high-nutrition value. WP4 will support inclusive engagement and NR-sensitive governance to ensure that nutrition-valuable facets of production systems are not jeopardized. WP5 will provide strategic insight of drivers of change across all deltas to support balanced and longer-term change. WP2 will collaborate with HER+ around gendered nutrition outcomes; RAqFS around nutrition data generation; TAFSSA, which focuses on determinants of sustainable healthy diets and food systems transformation in dryland areas of South Asia; SHiFT regarding food environments and sustainable healthy diets in Vietnam and Bangladesh; Resilient Cities around urban-rural interactions Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 25 h Work Package 2: TOC diagram Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 26 h Work Package 3: De-risking delta-oriented value chains (VCs) Work Package 3: De-risking delta-oriented value chains (VCs) Digital Climate Advisory Services (DCAS) can help small-scale producers and SMEs78 to prevent losses and recover faster from climate shocks and stresses79. Returns on investment for DCAS are high (1-to-24x), especially with complementary services, and can drive GDP growth80. Access however remains limited, with Work Package main services being fragmented, unsustainable, and not reaching last-mile end-users. To focus and de-risk key VCs81 associated with deltaic systems, and building on WP1 and WP2, prioritization we will, with public-private sector partners: 1) assess the potential of DCAS and complementing services to address climate risks among vulnerable groups; 2) support development of improved and inclusive DCAS and bundled services (financing, input supply, market access, insurance); and 3) identify and develop financing models/partnerships82 to achieve scale. Geographic scope Ganges delta: Bangladesh (and India- scoping studies) Regional Irrawaddy delta: Myanmar Mekong delta: Cambodia and Vietnam Work Package 3: The science WP3 will reduce climate risks among vulnerable groups (especially women and youth) and facilitate investment in deltaic VCs through DCAS and complementary services. Specific Objective Research Questions Methods Objective 1: Assess 1.1 What are the main climate 1.1.1 Scoping review of deltaic VCs and potential of DCAS and risks among vulnerable groups climate risks, vulnerabilities and end-users, complementing services from production to current state of DCAS, and previous research to address climate and consumption? and initiatives relevant to digital services. disaster risks among end-users in key VCs 1.2 How can these be 1.1.2 Generate livelihood and climate risk through climate-smart addressed through DCAS and maps, and vulnerability profiles across VCs and resilient practices. complementing services? through Delphi studies supported by key informant interviews and focus group discussions. 1.1.3. Assess existing digital climate advisory and services in key VCs focused on key characteristics, achievements and challenges. 1.1.4 Stakeholder workshops to co-design inclusive de-risking strategies, assess trade- offs, and prioritize options for VCs through DCAS and bundled services. Objective 2: Support 2.1 How can DCAS be bundled 2.1.1 Competitive calls for partner proposals to development of inclusive with other services (financing, co-develop innovative and inclusive digital DCAS and bundled input supply, market access, tools/platforms for DCAS and bundled services to reduce insurance) to create viable services. climate and disaster business models? risks in delta-oriented 2.1.2 Linking of public and private sector VCs 2.2 How can DCAS and bundled partners (based on interest, capacity, services be tailored to and activities), and creating business cases for tool targeted to last-mile end-users and platform development. (especially women, youth)? 2.1.3 Interactive user-centered design to co- develop, test, and improve inclusive DCAS and bundled services with public-private partnerships for key VCs. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 27 h 2.1.4 Modelling and validation of tailored digital climate and early warning information products to address identified risks. 2.1.5 Behavioral experiments filling knowledge gaps on end-user willingness to pay for DCAS and bundled services. 2.1.6 Business model development to enhance uptake and scaling of DCAS among vulnerable groups. 2.1.7 Participatory learning and action, including regular monitoring and evaluation through key informant interviews, surveys, and workshops. Objective 3: Identify and 3.1 How can existing climate 3.1.1 Systematic literature review of climate develop innovative and disaster risk financing risk financing, and institutional and policy financing models be adapted to scale analysis, to identify opportunities and barriers. models/partnerships to inclusive DCAS and bundled support scaling of DCAS services? 3.1.2 Co-develop inclusive financing models and bundled services with public and private sector partners tailored to specific climate risks and vulnerable groups. 3.1.3 Engagement with investors, financiers, and insurers to create interest and modify financing models based on willingness to invest. Outputs 1. VC climate risk and vulnerability assessments to identify inclusive intervention strategies and options for DCAS and complementary services. 2. Business models for inclusive DCAS and bundled services to reduce risks in specific delta-oriented VCs. 3. Inclusive and sustainable financing models/partnerships to support DCAS and bundled services scaling. WP 3 outcomes 1. Public and private sector partners access and use improved DCAS and bundled services to promote inclusive and resilient VCs. 2. Public and private investors/financiers/insurers participate in financing models to prevent and mitigate the impact of climate and disaster risks in delta-oriented VCs. Work Package 3: The theory of change Causal process WP3 will develop inclusive DCAS and bundled services and facilitate investment (EoI outcome). We commence with a climate risk and vulnerability assessment (based on multiple socio-economic and environmental criteria) across delta-oriented VCs, including a review of digital tools/platforms and previous DCAS related research and initiatives to identify crucial knowledge gaps. We will focus on VCs where DCAS can stimulate development through adaptation planning in the context of unique risks (e.g., flooding, droughts, extreme storms) associated with deltas. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 28 h We will work closely with public-private sector partners to assess opportunities for DCAS and complementary services (Output 3.1). For this, WP3 will build on its experience with VC climate risk and vulnerability assessments83, and review of digital tools84, and align with WP1,2 and 5 and relevant Initiatives (UU, ClimBeR, RAqFS, TAFSSA). These profiles will inform two main pathways to de-risk VCs: (1) business model development for DCAS and bundled services (financing, input supply, market access, insurance) based on a competitive innovation fund; this includes strengthening public-private partnerships and a focus on how to reach underrepresented groups (especially women, youth) (Output 3.2). We will collaborate with other Initiatives on similar tools/services (UU, ClimBeR) or interest (RAqFS, HER+, TAFSSA), while partnering with national hydromet, universities and research centers; and (2) the development of inclusive and innovative financing models to support inclusive DCAS and bundled services in line with national institutional and policy contexts (Output 3.3). The involvement of public and private sector partners will be critical for scaling DCAS and bundled services. Innovation partners (e.g., IRI, RIMES) will play a cross-country role to provide technical support, build capacity and engagement with demand and scaling partners, building opportunities for south-south learning. To enhance access and use of digital services (Outcome 1), results will be shared through workshops and media, while scaling strategies will be developed with partners (and aligned with TAFSSA). We will also engage with investors when developing financing models (Outcome 2). This will build strong linkages with key persons among public and private sector partners with social capital to encourage institutional change. Note: TOC assumptions are included in the diagram. Key partners We engage with public sector partners (especially MoA, national hydro-meteorological system, NGOs) and private sector partners (through competitive challenge fund granting) to develop and scale business cases for DCAS and bundled services. Key innovation partners include national and international research institutes, universities, and technology centers. We will engage with national partners, donor initiatives and other investors for innovative financing models/partnerships to support and scale inclusive services. Further detail can be found in Annex 3. Synergies with other Work Packages and Initiatives WP3 will build on information from production systems (WP1), nutrition (WP2) and climate risk mapping (WP5) in developing bundled DCAS services; this will then inform agribusiness models (WP1). Information on nutrition (WP2) and local governance/institutions (WP4) will be considered in financial models to scale DCAS among vulnerable groups. WP3 contributes to and makes use of the knowledge integration ecosystem (WP5). WP3 will also interact with other IDTs such as ClimBer and UU on risk management, climate advisories and bundled services. Similarly, digital tools/platforms will build on innovations from Digital Systems. We align services with aquatic food systems through RAqFS in Cambodia/Myanmar, with TAFSA on overcoming DCAS scaling constraints in the Ganges delta and HER+ on women inclusiveness. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 29 h Work Package 3: TOC diagram Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 30 h Work Package 4: Joined-up, gender equitable, inclusive deltaic systems governance Work Package 4: Joined-up, gender equitable, inclusive deltaic systems governance Policy disconnects between various natural resources (NR) and food systems sectors, and lack of capacity within institutions have impeded effective climate resilient food systems governance. Marginalized communities in the AMDs will benefit from more horizontally and vertically integrated “joined-up” governance that Work Package main underpins resilient food systems and gender equitable and socially inclusive (GESI) focus and approaches and interventions. Working with other WPs, WP4 will use prioritization transdisciplinary research evidence, local, experiential knowledge, and political economy insights, to coordinate multi-stakeholder dialogues towards more: (1) Coherent water-agriculture-environment policies and strategies. (2) Collaborative, networked (public, private, and grassroots) implementation practices. (3) Gender equitable and socially inclusive governance innovations. Geographic Scope Ganges Delta (Bangladesh) and Mekong Delta (Cambodia, Vietnam), Irrawaddy delta Regional (Provisional) Work Package 4: The science WP4 will strengthen capacities of national, provincial and local actors to plan, design and implement NR-informed, inclusive food systems governance, also by improving accountability of public, private and development agriculture and NR-related investments and interventions in the AMDs. Specific objective Research questions Methods Objective 1: Facilitate 1.1 Can transdisciplinary evidence 1.1.1 Comparative syntheses of joined up policy stakeholders in and improved networking and siloed approaches to food systems AMDs to engage incentivize better alignment of NR, governance with respect to climate collaboratively in water, and agricultural policies, resilience and GESI. identifying actionable regulatory frameworks and strategies for more implementation strategies? 1.1.2 Convene stakeholder dialogues to integrated NR-water- distil learning from 1.1.1 and relevant WP food systems 1.2 Will vertically and horizontally 1, 2, 3 and 5 outputs, to collaboratively governance to support “joined up” governance approaches identify actionable strategies for integrated climate resilient, GESI support more climate resilient and food systems governance. food system outcomes. GESI-informed NR, water, and agricultural policy outcomes than traditional siloed approaches? Objective 2: Facilitate 2.1 What entry points do 2.1.1 Review decentralization policies, and build capacity of decentralization policies, strategies, capacities and formal and customary sub-national and local and formal and informal institutions governance institutions in focal deltas to institutions in diverse provide for facilitating joined up NR- identify most promising entry points for delta climate hotspots to water-agriculture governance? facilitating climate resilient outcomes. implement decentralized cross-sectoral 2.2 What forms of intervention and 2.1.3 Develop and pilot GESI-informed governance initiatives capacity strengthening in specific governance capacity building modules designed for climate local contexts, will support more collaboratively with key actors identified in resilience and GESI. GESI and resilient food systems 2.1.1. governance outcomes? Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 31 h Objective 3: Build 3.1 What forms of cross-sectoral, 3.1.1 Capacity strengthening of key capacity and agency of decentralized, institutional models provincial and local actors through civil society grassroots and coordination can enhance the collaborative partnerships and cross- actors in the three mega efficacy, agency and inclusiveness of learning between institutions and key deltas to influence food systems governance coalitions actors, to facilitate delivery of GESI- design of more inclusive in specific local contexts? informed food systems governance. NR-water-agriculture governance innovations. 3.1.2 Design and apply a participatory MEL system to track inclusion and gender equality interventions and outcomes, map institutional performance and accountability, and identify scalable best practices. Outputs 1. Comparative case study syntheses of joined up approaches to water, agriculture, environment governance 2. Collaboratively identified entry points and actionable strategies for improving NR- informed food systems governance with potential for scale up 3. GESI-informed governance capacity building modules developed and piloted at national, provincial, and local scales 4. Capacity and agency strengthening strategies for engaging women and marginalized groups in the design and implementation of joined-up NR-water-food systems governance processes. 5. Participatory MEL system to track GESI, climate resilience and institutional performance and accountability of WP4-supported interventions WP 4 outcomes 1. Policies and investment plans of two key national or international stakeholders demonstrate attention to joined-up GESI NR-water-food systems governance strategies. 2. Capacity of provincial and local public, private and civil society stakeholders to plan, finance, implement GESI-informed food systems governance enhanced in five Initiatives linked to ongoing land, water, environment projects. 3. More inclusive and climate resilient food systems through increased representation and agency of grassroots actors, particularly women in the design and implementation of joined-up land-water-environment governance Initiatives in ongoing projects. Work Package 4: The theory of change Causal process The climate crisis accelerated by an increasing population and rapid urbanization in the Asian Mega-Deltas puts at risk the livelihoods, food, and nutrition security of more than 100 million marginalized, small-scale producers. Past irrigation and flood control interventions have reshaped the region’s biodiverse and fertile landscapes, impacting multiple other food systems, including fisheries and aquaculture85. Uncoordinated investments and interventions exacerbate sectoral incoherence between agriculture, land, environment, livestock, fish, forests sectors. Assuming delta-specific, national, and local cultural, socioeconomic, and socio-political contexts allow uptake of AMD transdisciplinary science, our focus will be to increase coherence across NR and food systems sectors. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 32 h The high levels of poverty, marginality and vulnerability in the AMDs require governance processes that can tackle deep-rooted and intersectional inequalities of marginalized producers and consumers. Where decentralization policies empower secondary and tertiary institutions to sufficiently reform, we will identify more joined-up pathways to restoring sustainability and equity of food systems. WP4 facilitates a shift from prescriptive and generalized governance solutions to enabling policy and implementation actors at national, provincial, and local levels, including private sector, civil society, and formal and informal community-based organizations to collaboratively analyze ecological, economic, and political challenges, and co-design governance arrangements for more inclusive and climate-resilient natural resources-informed food systems. Finally, IDT timeframes and budgets allowing, WP4 will build capacity and agency of grassroots actors, including marginalized women and youth to inform, implement and evaluate food systems governance and accountability of key stakeholders. This Initiative will support other AMD WPs to achieve more inclusive outputs: WP1 (Outputs 1.2 and 1.3), WP2 (Outputs 2.1.1, 2.1.2 and 2.1.3), and WP3 (Output 3.3) by working closely with other IDTs, particularly NPS, RaqFS, HER+, TAFSSA and NEXUS Gains. WP4 will also enable a more robust assessment of institutional capacities at scale, and the co-design of actionable pathways to change that are intentionally inclusive and gender equitable. A key output will be MEL systems that track planned processes of engagement to demonstrate their comparative relevance to current practices of top-down and fragmented governance interventions. Note: TOC assumptions are included in the diagram. Key partners A major entry point for achieving more joined-up governance will be ministries of local government, national and provincial irrigation and water resources institutions, national and regional governance / climate Initiatives. In each country, policy think tanks and institutions shaping sectoral policies and strategies will be key demand partners. We will work closely with the private sector, civil society, grassroots actors who focus on inclusive and sustainable NR- and food systems governance. Further detail can be found in Annex 3. Synergies with other Work Packages and Initiatives Synergies with: WP1 in establishing Learning Alliances to facilitate inclusive social learning around improved production system (Output 1.1), and in enabling stakeholder organizations across the delta to design improved agronomy packages (Output 1.2); with WP2 in generating evidence of effects of food systems transformation on deltaic consumption and production (Outputs 1.1 and 1.2); and with WP3 in facilitating policy dialogues and strategies to enhance climate risk management approaches to adaptation (Output 3.4). WP4 also aligns strategically with the IDTs NPS (Output 1) and with HER+ (all outputs). There are shared objectives with RAqFS on governance of deltaic food systems transformation, with TAFSSA on sustainable food systems transformation in South Asia; and with Resilient Cities around urban-rural interactions. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 33 h Work Package 4: TOC diagram Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 34 h Work Package 5: Evidence-based delta development planning Work Package 5: Evidence-based delta development planning WP5 will focus on delta development planning at the macro-level to ensure plans/policies incorporate inclusive and climate-proof approaches to food systems transformation. This will be achieved through projecting climate-risks, and defining inclusive approaches that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. Adaptive Work Package main solutions identified throughout all WPs will be integrated and shared through a focus and network of practice to facilitate knowledge exchange, to strengthen delta policy prioritization planning and to address capacity needs. National and subnational delta development plans will be assessed to deliver science-based recommendations for interventions that lead to more adaptive food systems, more resilient communities, and more investment in sustainable delta development. Geographic scope Ganges delta: Bangladesh, India Regional Irrawaddy delta: Myanmar (limited activities) Mekong delta: Cambodia and Vietnam Work Package 5: The science WP5 will improve the development of climate-resilient and inclusive food systems in Asian Mega-Deltas through evidence-supported policy-dialogue and strategic planning. Specific objective Research questions Methods Objective 1: To support 1.1 What are the future trends 1.1.1 CS-Map approach86 strategic planning and for climatic risks and social investments with vulnerability risks in Mega- 1.2.2 Projection of trends/ risk map 87 predicted trends of Deltas? foresighting climate change impacts and vulnerability risks on 1.2 How can vulnerability risk 1.2.3 Identification of hotspots, challenges maps capture dynamic changes and opportunities based on IPCC scenarios deltaic food systems over time? Objective 2: To include 2.1 How can mitigation in 2.1.1 Cross-sectoral policy analyses to dual adaptation-mitigation agricultural landscapes be integrate agriculture in existing or new development options in incorporated as an economic jurisdictional approaches (PES, REDD+) national and sub-national development strategy in national planning for deltas to climate action plans? 2.1.2 Design carbon offset interventions that leverage climate finance attract private climate investments and 2.2 How can economic, encourage increased public ambitions to environmental and social leverage funding for at-risk delta communities benefits of adaptation-mitigation (link to WP3) options (WP1) be maximized in deltaic food systems? 2.2.1 Cost/ benefit and MACC assessments 2.2.2 Contextualizing MRV systems and enhancing transparency by tracking progress88 2.2.3 Financial and technical capacity building for planning and implementing at scale Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 35 h Objective 3: To 3.1 How do adaptation-mitigation 3.1.1 Analysis of migration behavior (from synthesize risks, risk- options affect risk response WP2) and relationship to socio-economic responses and climate behavior (link WP1&2)? impacts of adaptation options action opportunities for inclusive development 3.2 What are de-risking 3.2.1 Foresight approach to assess risk pathways strategies for migration? profiles of vulnerable groups and define low- 3.3 How can development risk adaptation strategies pathways be more inclusive and 3.3.1 Analyze existing delta development climate-responsive? plans with a lens on inclusivity and demographic projections Objective 4: To integrate 4.1 What are the most relevant 4.1.1 Develop an ‘Innovation Matrix’ ranking knowledge across innovations to increase the suitability and scalability of different networks that facilitate resilience of deltaic agrifood T&Ps89 exchange, capacity systems from across the CGIAR building and cross- and other institutions? 4.2.1 Develop communities of practice with country learning to localized and specialized subsets of networks accelerate delta 4.2 What capacity is needed for for cross-fertilization of ideas and rapid development planning applying knowledge at scale to iterative design and testing 90 progress towards development goals that enhance resilience? 4.2.2 Capacity gap analysis and “match-making” 4.2.3 Facilitate policy dialogues and workshops with experts, local leaders, private sector and policy makers Outputs 1. High resolution climate change risk vulnerability maps to inform strategic planning 2. Climate action plans for leveraging both adaptation and mitigation financing from public and private sector 3. Inclusive climate-responsive delta development pathways to guide transformative policies and investments 4. Knowledge integration network established to integrate One CGIAR science with partnerships in delta development planning WP 5 outcomes* *generated entirely through this WP or contributed to an outcome generated through outputs of other WP 1. Governments develop three policy interventions to facilitate inclusive climate- responsive delta development 2. Development partners establish three new projects (or adjust current ones) to maximize climate adaptation and mitigation outcomes in delta development Work Package 5: The theory of change Causal process WP5 will provide proven scientific outputs and expand decision-making support systems across deltas and food systems for policy development following the approach of Cash et al. (2003; “credibility, salience and legitimacy”)91. Climate mapping has proven its transformational power in Vietnam through close engagement with local stakeholders to build necessary ownership92. Such approaches will be improved by forecasting trends and layering socio-economic data and expanded across deltas to accelerate decision-making and impact assuming they will also have strong national buy-in as in Vietnam. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 36 h Although considerations for GHG reduction are not prioritized in most developing countries, there are significant financial opportunities for international investment through the NDCs and the new US-EU Methane Reduction Pledge. Rice, especially in AMD countries, represents one of the most promising opportunities for methane mitigation as it has the highest mitigation density potential (tCO2e/ha) and highest cost-effective mitigation potential (<$100/tCO2e) in Asia (36% mitigation potential vs. 6% in livestock)93. As international investments become conditional on climate outcomes, building capacity to attract funding for dual adaptation- mitigation activities and developing climate action plans with transparent MRV systems will be necessary. WP5 aims to inform and improve existing development plans by delivering new knowledge from WP1 and 2 and co-creating food system adaptation strategies with local partners. Outputs 5.1 and 5.2 add climatic assessment criteria and risk foresighting that will be built on strong integrated data sets allowing other WPs to contribute specialist insight (e.g., demographic changes- WP2,4, inclusive governance models- WP4, nutritional attributes- WP2) for developing inclusive and climate-responsive delta development pathways (Output 5.3). Our logic is to engage NARES partners already during technology development to create ownership. Good communication channels with decision makers and DPs will be created to establish effective scaling partnerships. Thus, new policy interventions and investment programs will be co-developed for improved climate and livelihood resilience. WP5 will also act as knowledge integrator between thematic One CGIAR Initiatives, local actors, and DPs in Mega-Deltas (Output 5.4). The WP will connect experts in key scalable technologies to the right scaling partners in AMD countries (“match-making”) and support partnership building and roadmap development with solution-oriented communities of practice. We anticipate that proactive creation of opportunities for other One CGIAR Initiatives and follow-up events will create new partnerships and result in recognition of AMD focus countries as broadened scope for impact by other Initiative leaders. Note: TOC assumptions are included in the diagram. Key partners WP5 will closely engage with local stakeholders, national governments, and DPs to climate- proof their Initiatives and programs with outputs co-developed with NARES partners. WP5 will also funnel science outputs of other WPs into relevant strategies and plans and proactively support scaling of other One CGIAR innovations through ‘match-making’ and exchange events between scientists and local stakeholders. Further detail can be found in Annex 3. Synergies with other Work Packages and Initiatives WP5 will synthesize detailed insights from all WPs to aid decision making for food system adaptation, including community-based exploration of agronomic technologies (WP1); nutrition sensitive needs (WP2); investment de-risking (WP3); and inclusive and natural resource-sensitive institutions (WP4). In exchange, WP5 provides strategic insight for WPs to perceive and respond to broader scale change in deltas. WP5 will also interact with ClimBeR for climate risk management; MITIGATE+ for low- emission plans, DX1 on data sharing platforms, NEXUS for integrated resource management and Foresight & Metrics, amongst others. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 37 h Work Package 5: TOC diagram Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 38 h 4. Innovation Packages and Scaling Readiness Plan Scaling will progress the AMD innovations along identified trajectories towards projected benefits identified in section 2.7 in all five Impact Areas. AMD anticipates 18 core innovations developed within AMD WPs plus a further 20+ innovations from 10 other Initiatives with which AMD will collaborate. Innovation Packages will be developed during the inception phase in the first year following Sartas et al. (2020)94 and will focus on change with partner organizations at three geographical scales (local, delta and regional). They will address different challenges and opportunities as delta systems strive to accelerate adaptation. Coordination and monitoring of innovation trajectories towards AMD Initiative goals will be undertaken by WP5. While some innovations (e.g., DCAS from WP3) are relatively advanced – largely on account of prior innovations under trial elsewhere – others, (e.g., Nutrition WP2, GESI, INRFS WP4) are further upstream and require capacity and awareness building. Details are listed in Annex 4, which also specifies the 10 other Initiatives with which AMD will collaborate. AMD should be prioritized for First Wave scaling backstopping and start Light Track from Quarter 3 2022 onwards, Standard Track from Quarter 2 2023 onwards, and Advanced Track for the Initiative in Quarter 1 2024, aiming to cover 26–50% of its Innovations. The AMD Initiative allocated US$390,000 to implement the Innovation Packages and Scaling Readiness plan (2022: US$140,000 (for seven innovations), 2023: US$150,000 (three Innovation Packages), 2024: US$100,000). Dedicated activities, deliverables, indicators and line-items are included in MELIA (Section 6) and Management Plan (Section 7). 5. Impact statements 5.1 Nutrition, health and food security Challenges and prioritization: Deltaic food systems are transforming rapidly in response to multiple drivers, resulting in changing consumption and production practices, with nutrition outcomes that are variable, highly socially differentiated, and poorly understood. Inadequate knowledge and limited policy coherence hamper design of nutrition sensitive actions to mitigate negative nutrition outcomes and leverage positive impacts. The Initiative will enroll institutional stakeholders in co-production of foundational knowledge to support design and uptake of nutrition sensitive interventions and policies that promote sustainable and equitable production and consumption of nutritious foods in Asian Mega-Deltas Research questions: (1) How are deltaic food consumption patterns changing in a context of rapid socioeconomic and environmental change, and with what implications for human nutrition? (WP2) (2) How is the nutrient yield (quantity of micronutrients produced per unit area of land) of land- and water-based food production systems changing in response to drivers, with what implications for equity and gendered access and control? (WP2). (3) Which forms of business case will motivate decision makers to support appropriate nutrition sensitive actions for different deltaic population sub-groups? (WP2, WP1) Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 39 h WP Research/Activities Outputs Intermediate outcomes 2025 outcomes and metrics 2 Assess changes in deltaic Typology of effects Socially differentiated By 2025, national food consumption patterns, in of food systems nutrition implications of ministries and major relation to demand side transformation on deltaic food systems NGOs in at least three drivers of change, to reveal deltaic consumption transformation better countries use AMD socially differentiated nutrition and production understood by co-produced outcomes patterns and institutional stakeholders knowledge and practices, evidence to table at differentiated by least three nutrition gender, age sensitive interventions to reduce mortality, 2 Evaluate how deltaic Quantified, socially Socially differentiated DALYs and agroecosystems and food differentiated nutrition implications of micronutrient production practices are evidence of nutrition deltaic food systems deficiencies, for transforming in response to outcomes of deltaic transformation better 20,000 producers multiple drivers to reveal food systems understood by (80% women) and socially differentiated nutrition transformation institutional stakeholders 100,000 consumers outcomes 2 Identify nutrition sensitive (1) Menu of costed (1) Most cost-effective policies, and interventions to nutrition sensitive nutrition sensitive support equitable and business cases actions identified and sustainable consumption and tailored for mega- agreed with key production of nutritious foods deltas. stakeholders. (2) in deltas in the face of rapid Nutrition sensitive change. (2) Guidelines for thinking and approaches implementing internalized by partner nutrient sensitive institutions in two mega- actions in deltaic deltas. (3) Stakeholders food systems. in two mega-deltas have committed to implement recommended nutrition sensitive actions. Key partners in this Impact Area are found in Annex 5. Note the key demand, innovation and scaling partners in delivering this Impact Area. Human resources and capacity development: Team members include nutritionists, agricultural economists, anthropologists, gender specialists, food systems experts. Transdisciplinary, integrated mixed methods, and collaborative approaches to co-production of knowledge with a broad set of stakeholders will be prioritized under this Impact Area. 5.2 Poverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs Challenges and prioritization: Asian Mega-Deltas are home to 177 million people, 36% of them poor. Urbanization, climate change and increasing mobility are transforming the human geography of Asian mega-deltas and their food systems, creating new livelihood opportunities and new vulnerabilities. COVID-19 has caused a massive decline in welfare across the region, suppressing demand, reversing migration and remittance flows, and undermining financial security for millions. Climate change and anthropogenic stressors (e.g., hydropower, habitat conversion), threaten millions working in agriculture and fisheries with reduced incomes due to eroding productivity, lost livelihoods, or permanent displacement. The Initiative will counteract these trends by supporting the dissemination of sustainable agricultural practices and water management to raise farm productivity and incomes and employment in value chains, contributing to improved natural resource governance to protect livelihoods, and by Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 40 h promoting bundled digital climate information and financial services to facilitate successful adaptation. Research questions: (1) What supply chain actor roles and capacities are required to support production systems diversification, and how can these be strengthened? (WP1). (2) How can DCAS be bundled with other services (financing, input supply, market access, insurance) to create viable business models? (WP3). (3) What forms of cross-sectoral, decentralized, institutional models and coordination can enhance the efficacy, agency and inclusiveness of food systems governance coalitions in specific local contexts? (WP4). WP Research/ Outputs Intermediate 2025 outcomes and Activities outcomes metrics 1 Developing input Agri-business models Scaling partners At least 200 stakeholders supply chain and agri- developed for selected have improved and 30 organizations in business models for value chains to support access to value each delta scale up farmer market penetration diversified production chain capability to diversify and supporting systems trialed with facilities/services agrifood systems through a diversified production stakeholders network of LAs, supported systems by at least three national/subnational policies 3 Support the By 2025, digital climate development of Business models for Public and private advisory and bundled inclusive DCAS and inclusive DCAS and sector partners services provided by public bundled services to bundled services (financing, access and use and private sector partners reduce climate and input supply, market improved DCAS will be used by ≥ 0.8 million disaster risks in delta- access, insurance) to and bundled smallholders (≥ 29% oriented VCs reduce risks in specific services to promote women), with at least one delta-oriented VC inclusive and financing partnership plan resilient VCs established to assure sustainability for further scaling. 4 Build capacity and Capacity and agency Participation and At least three national agency of civil society strengthening strategies for agency of governments or grassroots actors in engaging women and marginalized actors international development the three mega deltas marginalized groups in the in the design and partners work with to influence design of design and implementation implementation of grassroots actors including more inclusive NR- of joined-up NR-water-food decentralized land- marginalized women and water-agriculture systems governance water governance youth to co-design gender governance processes. initiatives in at least equitable and socially innovations. five initiatives linked inclusive joined-up natural to ongoing projects resources and food increased. systems governance policies or strategies. Key partners in this Impact Area are found in Annex 5. Note the key demand, innovation and scaling partners in delivering this Impact Area. Human resources and capacity development: Team members include agribusiness, digital innovation and rural finance specialists, gender specialists and other social scientists. Work will involve a mix of policy analyses, co-design of digital tools and agribusiness tools, and theoretically informed intersectional analyses of inequalities and marginality. 5.3 Gender equality, youth and social inclusion Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 41 h Challenges and prioritization: South Asia, is the second-lowest performer on gender equality in the 2021 Global Gender Gap Report 202195. The situation is somewhat better in Southeast Asia, but with wide variances regionally. For example, polders in Bangladesh have reduced livelihood vulnerability of coastal communities96. However, the design and governance of water resources and related food systems institutions have been historically masculine97, and the gender gap that persists is crosscut by intersecting inequalities98. Food security is a national priority in the heavily populated Asian Mega-Deltas, and “the historical and contemporary importance of these projects” is evident in the investments in improving water resources and irrigation. These institutions – both formal and informal – are also recognized as spaces where cultural norms of masculinity are reiterated99. Conversely, these institutions also offer the highest opportunity for unpacking and tackling deep-rooted gender inequalities. Informed by the HER+ Initiative’s approach to more transformative outcomes, AMD adopts a gender transformative and socially inclusive lens in WP4, and varying degrees from gender- aware to gender responsive approaches in WPs 1, 2 and 3. This will require putting in place a diverse set of gender and social inclusion tools, methodologies, and building capacity of AMD WP teams, key partners as well as target outreach stakeholders across the hierarchy of various NR – agriculture, irrigation, water, land, local government and related sectoral departments – to facilitate reflexive self-analysis on what needs to change, where and how. Research questions: (1) How can learning alliances best facilitate inclusive social learning around agricultural innovations to support climate adaptation and resilience? (WP1). How is the nutrient yield (quantity of micronutrients produced per unit area of land) of land- and water- based food production systems changing in response to drivers, with what implications for equity and gendered access and control? (WP2) (3) How can DCAS and bundled services be tailored to and targeted to last-mile end-users (especially women) (WP3) (4) What forms of intervention and capacity strengthening in specific local contexts, will support more GESI and resilient food systems governance outcomes? (WP4) WP Research/ Outputs Intermediate 2025 Outcomes and metrics Activities outcomes 1 Establishing and Learning Alliances Demand & Scaling At least 200 stakeholders and activating inclusive established to facilitate partners 30 organizations in each delta multistakeholder gender inclusive social mainstream gender scale up farmer capability to learning alliances learning around value inclusive social diversify agrifood systems chain development learning process through a network of inclusive within complex and through learning learning alliances, supported highly variable delta alliances by at least three national/sub- food systems national policies 2 Evaluate how deltaic Typology of effects of Socially National ministries and major agroecosystems and food systems differentiated NGOs in at least three food production transformation on deltaic nutrition countries use AMD co- practices are consumption and implications of produced knowledge and transforming in production patterns and deltaic food evidence to table at least response to multiple practices, differentiated systems three nutrition sensitive drivers to reveal by gender, age transformation interventions to reduce socially better understood mortality, DALYs and differentiated by institutional micronutrient deficiencies, nutrition outcomes stakeholders for 20,000 producers (80% women) and 100,000 consumers Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 42 h 3 Develop business Business models for Public and private By 2025, digital climate models for DCAS inclusive DCAS and sector partners advisory and bundled services and bundled bundled services access and use provided by public and private services tailored to (financing, input supply, improved DCAS sector partners will be used vulnerable end-user market access, and bundled by ≥ 0.8 million smallholders groups (especially insurance) to reduce services to (≥ 29% women), with at least women) risks in specific delta- promote inclusive one financing partnership plan oriented VCs and resilient VCs established to assure sustainability for further scaling 4 Facilitate and build GESI-informed Improved capacity At least three national capacity of sub- governance capacity of provincial and governments or international national and local building modules local public, private development partners work institutions in diverse developed and piloted at and civil society with grassroots actors delta climate national, provincial and actors to plan, including marginalized women hotspots to local scales finance and and youth to co-design implement implement GESI- gender equitable and socially decentralized cross- informed food inclusive joined-up natural sectoral governance systems resources and food systems initiatives designed governance in governance policies or for climate resilience ongoing land, strategies and GESI water, environment projects Key partners in this Impact Area are found in Annex 5. Note the key demand, innovation and scaling partners in delivering this Impact Area. Human resources and capacity development: Team members include gender specialists and other social scientists, nutritionists, digital innovation specialists and agronomists. 5.4 Climate mitigation and adaptation Challenges and prioritization: Climate change is already affecting Asian deltas100 Bangladesh, Myanmar and Vietnam are amongst the top 10 countries affected101. Flooding, exacerbated by land subsidence102, salinity, drought, and heat all affect food production. Over half of the coastal area in Bangladesh is now affected by salinity103, jeopardizing 7% of national rice production. Rice production in the Mekong delta- source of 15% of rice traded globally- is threatened104. Rapid adaptation is essential, yet adaptation must also recognize the intense local variation that occurs in deltas. Accordingly, AMD will establish local processes of climate smart adaptation, to explore “best bet” options with communities and seek ways to support investment in the face of uncertainty. The deltas are also hotspots of agricultural emissions105 and thus have high potential for mitigation. Through support in planning for low-emissions production and establishment of transparent MRV systems, national governments can be supported to achieve their NDC goals while those green investments can be coupled with adaptation measures to transform the deltaic production system toward higher resilience. Research questions: How, where and when can low carbon emission pathways support food system transformation? (WP1). How can economic, environmental and social benefits of adaptation-mitigation options be maximized in deltaic food systems (WP5)? What are the main climate risks among vulnerable groups from production to consumption and how can these be addressed through DCAS and complementing services? (WP3). What forms of intervention and capacity strengthening in specific local contexts, will support more GESI and resilient food systems governance outcomes (WP4)? Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 43 h WP Research/ Activities Outputs Intermediate 2025 outcomes and outcomes metrics 1 Farm and landscape High resolution Partners incorporate At least 200 level adaptive suitability suitability assessment of “improved agronomy stakeholders and 30 assessments for agri-production systems at scale” advisories organizations in each production system in deltas and into their delta scale up farmer diversification and characterization based organizational system capability to diversify climatic risk reduction on current biophysical agrifood systems and socio-economic through a network of profiles to accelerate inclusive learning farmer centric learning alliances, supported by and reduce climatic risk at least three national/sub-national policies 5 Include dual adaptation- Inclusive climate- Governments develop Policymakers and mitigation development responsive delta three policy development partners options in national and development pathways interventions to in at least two deltas sub-national planning to guide transformative facilitate inclusive involved in knowledge for deltas to leverage policies and investments climate-responsive integration networks climate finance delta development engage with AMD to help design climate adaptation-oriented policies, projects and investment plans with the nominal value of at least US$1.8 billion 3 Assess potential of VC climate risk and Public and private By 2025, digital climate DCAS and vulnerability sector partners access advisory and bundled complementing assessments to identify and use improved services provided by services to address inclusive intervention DCAS and bundled public and private climate and disaster strategies and options services to promote sector partners will be risks among end-users for DCAS and inclusive and resilient used by ≥ 0.8 million in key VCs through complementary services VCs smallholders (≥ 29% climate-smart and women), with at least resilient practices one financing partnership plan established to assure sustainability for further scaling 4 Facilitate and build GESI-informed Improved capacity of At least three national capacity of sub-national governance capacity provincial and local governments or and local institutions in building modules public, private and civil international diverse delta climate developed and piloted at society actors to plan, development partners hotspots to implement national, provincial, and finance and implement work with grassroots decentralized cross- local scales GESI-informed food actors including sectoral governance systems governance marginalized women initiatives designed for in ongoing land, water, and youth to co-design climate resilience and environment projects gender equitable and GESI socially inclusive joined-up natural resources and food systems governance policies or strategies Key partners in this Impact Area are found in Annex 5. Note the key demand, innovation and scaling partners in delivering this Impact Area. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 44 h Human resources and capacity development of Initiative team: AMD team includes spatial analysts and GIS specialists, agronomists, soil scientists, environmental scientists, social scientists and hydrologist and hydrologic modelers 5.5 Environmental health and biodiversity Challenges and prioritization: Challenges include: Threats from intensification, which already impacts soil health and biodiversity in deltas in SE Asia which started with exceptionally fertile soils, abundant water and high biodiversity; Climate change, which drives intensification harder in order to adapt to Climate Change; Fragmentation of institutions within and around deltas. Unchecked, this leads to “locking in” of deltas resulting in severely inequitable development and uncoupled development pathways for agriculture, ecological and urban systems. Loss of biodiversity of food systems in deltas, which narrows the spectrum of ecosystem services valued locally and loss of livelihood, especially for disadvantaged groups. In response, AMD prioritizes a systemic approach to integrate intensification of food systems locally (WP1), recognizes the value of food system diversity (WP2), while also ensuring inclusive development through joined-up governance (WP4). WP5 provides strategic insight of drivers, threats and opportunities to deltas to support a systemic approach. Research questions: What are the best-bet production systems for deltaic-climate adaptation and mitigation (WP1)? How are climate change, ecosystem modification, and demand shifts altering deltaic agro-ecologies and cropping patterns, with what implications for supply of nutritious foods and nutrition security (WP2)? Will vertically and horizontally “joined up” governance approaches support more climate resilient and GESI-informed NR, water, and agricultural policy outcomes than traditional siloed approaches (WP4)? What are the future trends for climatic risks and social vulnerability risks in Mega-Deltas (WP5)? WP Research/ Activities Outputs Intermediate 2025 outcomes and outcomes metrics 1 Establish adaptive High resolution Partners At least 200 stakeholder and suitability suitability assessment incorporate 30 organizations in each assessment with of agri-production “improved delta scale up farmer local users at farm systems in deltas & agronomy at scale” capability to diversify level, based on characterization based advisories into their agrifood systems through a biophysical and on current biophysical organizational network of LAs, supported by socio-economic and socioeconomic system at least three national/sub- profiles for diversified profiles to accelerate national policies agrifood system farmer centric learning and reduce climatic risk 2 Assess changes in Typology of effects of Socially National ministries and major deltaic food food systems differentiated NGOs in at least three consumption transformation on nutrition countries use AMD co- patterns, in relation to deltaic consumption implications of produced knowledge and demand side drivers and production deltaic food evidence to table at least of change, to reveal patterns and practices, systems three nutrition sensitive socially differentiated differentiated by transformation interventions to reduce nutrition outcomes gender, age better understood mortality, DALYs and by institutional micronutrient deficiencies, for stakeholders 20,000 producers (80% women) and 100,000 consumers Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 45 h 4 Facilitate policy Collaboratively Policies and At least three national stakeholders in identified entry points investment plans of governments or international mega-deltas to and actionable two key national or development partners work engage strategies for international with grassroots actors collaboratively in improving NR-informed stakeholders including marginalized identifying actionable food systems demonstrate women and youth to co- strategies for more governance with attention to joined design gender equitable and integrated NR-water- potential for scale up up and GESI- socially inclusive joined-up food systems informed land- natural resources and food governance to water-environment systems governance policies support climate governance or strategies resilient, GESI food strategies FS-NR system outcomes governance 5 Support strategic Climate change Governments Policymakers and planning and vulnerability risk maps develop three development partners in at investments with identifying hotspots of policy interventions least two deltas involved in predicted trends of productivity, livelihood to facilitate knowledge integration climate change and environmental inclusive climate- networks make public impacts and risks to inform strategic responsive delta statements on the vulnerability risks on planning development importance of One CGIAR deltaic food systems and AMD and engage with AMD to help design climate adaptation-oriented policies, projects and investment plans with the nominal value of at least US$1.8 billion Key partners in this Impact Area are found in Annex 5. Note the key demand, innovation and scaling partners in delivering this Impact Area. Human resources and capacity development of Initiative team: AMD team includes spatial analysts and GIS specialists, agronomists, soil scientists, nutrition scientists, social scientists and hydrologist and hydrologic modelers. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 46 h 6. Monitoring, evaluation, learning and impact assessment (MELIA) 6.1 Result framework CGIAR Impact Areas Nutrition, health and food security Poverty reduction, livelihoods Gender equality, youth and social Climate adaptation and mitigation Environmental health and biodiversity and jobs inclusion Common impact indicators AMD Initiative will contribute to and will be able to provide data towards # of people benefitting from relevant # of people benefitting from # of women benefiting from relevant CGIAR # tons CO2 equivalent emissions # of hectares under improved CGIAR innovations relevant CGIAR Innovations innovations # of people benefitting from relevant management CGIAR innovations SDG targets 2.2, 2.3, 2.4 2.1, 1.5 5.1, 5.c, 13.b 2.4, 13.1, 13.2 6.6, 12.2 Action Area: Resilient Agrifood Systems Action Area outcomes Action Area outcome indicators ST 1 – Farmers use technologies or practices that contribute to improved livelihoods, STi 1.1 – Number of farmers using climate smart practices disaggregated by gender enhance environmental health and biodiversity, are apt in a context of climate change, and sustain natural resources. STi 1.3 – Measurable implications of adoptions such as production, profitability, input use, product quality and associated price, environmental and health damage avoided, livelihood, employment and so forth. ST 2 – Consumers have the information, incentives and wherewithal to choose healthy diets. STi 2.1 – Diet quality score STi 3.1 – Area of land under improved mitigation plans (or area that is decreasing in net carbon ST 3 – Governments and other actors take decisions to reduce the environmental footprint of emissions – more ambitious and longer term) food systems from damaging to nature positive STi 3.2 – Area under improved water use plans (or water use efficiency measures – more ambitious and longer term) RAFS 1 – Smallholder farmers use resource-efficient and climate-smart technologies and RAFSi 1.1 – Number of resource-efficient and climate-smart technologies at stage IV (uptake by next practices to enhance their livelihoods, environmental health and biodiversity. user), disaggregated by type ST & RAFS 2 – National and local governments utilize enhanced capacity (skills, systems and STRAFSi 2.1 – Number of policies/ strategies/ laws/ regulations/ budgets/ investments/ curricula (and culture) to assess and apply research evidence and data in policy making process. similar) at different scales that were modified in design or implementation, with evidence that the change was informed by CGIAR research STi 1.1 – Number of farmers using climate smart practices disaggregated by gender ST & RAFS & GI 1 – Women and youth are empowered to be more active in decision making in food, land and water systems STRAFSGIi 1.1 – Positive trends in the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEIA) at various scales Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 47 h Initiative and Work Package outcomes, outputs and indicators Result type Unit of Data Frequency Baseline Baseline Geographic Data value year Target Target (outcome Result Indicator measure scope source collection of data or output) ment method collection (outcome (outcom value year only) e only) Work Package 1: Adapting deltaic production systems WP1 By 2025, a network of Area under improved agronomy Areas 5 countries Primary Primary - Bi-annual N/A 100,000 2025 EoI inclusive Learning Alliances (disaggregated by practices, (Has) Sub-national and survey; Outcome comprised of at least 200 crops, framing system and secondary Secondary stakeholder communities and geography) - national 30 organizations in each reports delta, and supported by at Number of farmers adopting Generic 5 countries Primary N/A 150,000 2025 least 3 national/sub-national agronomic solutions, number Sub-national/ and policies, will scale up disaggregated by gender Local secondary diversification of agrifood systems in deltas, to Policies (number of policies Generic Sub-national/ Primary N/A 3 2025 accelerate adaptation by developed by government) Number Local 150,000 smallholders and improve management of 100,000 hectares of land WP1 Demand and scaling Number of activities that Generic National and Primary Key Once at the N/A 5 per delta 2024 Outcome 1 partners mainstream social incorporate social learning number sub-national data informant end of the learning process through process through LA source interviews Initiative learning alliance WP1 Partners incorporate Policies (number of Generic National and Primary Key Once at the N/A 5 2024 Outcome 2 “improved agronomy at advisories/strategies/policies number sub-national data informant end of the scale” advisories into their modified in design or source interviews Initiative organizational system implementation) WP1 Scaling partners have Capacity development (change Percentag National and Primary Key Once at the N/A 5 2024 Outcome 3 improved access to value in the utilization of value chain e sub-national data informant end of the chain facilities/ services facilities /services) source interviews Initiative WP1 High resolution suitability Data Assets (maps of production Generic National and Satellite Remote Annual N/A N/A 4 per country 2025 Output 1 assessment of agri-production areas prone to abiotic stresses, Number sub-national images, sensing, updates systems in deltas and i.e., flooding, salinity, drought, weather GIS, characterization based on terminal heat in target countries) data Modelling current biophysical and socio- economic profiles Data Assets (Maps of socio- Secondary Compilation Annual, if 3 per country economic profiles, e.g., data from from available population, poverty rate, income) statistics, statistics, Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 48 h available publications, spatial data or available spatial data Data Assets (maps and reports of High Remote Once 2 per country high-resolution suitability resolution sensing, (depending assessment of target agri- satellite GIS, on prod production systems) imagery modelling systems) Capacity building of institutions Primary Surveys Bi-annual 200 (Number of people trained disaggregated by gender) WP1 Learning alliances established Number of learning alliances Generic National and Primary: Primary - Bi-annual200 N/A 8 2025 Output 2 to facilitate inclusive social established number sub-national MELIA surveys learning around value chain System development within complex Number of stakeholders 200 and highly variable delta food Documentati systems Number of organization/ on of LA stakeholder groups joining LAs meetings 30 Change in knowledge and % and 30 practice in at least two Knowledg stakeholder groups, following e score learning topics of the LA; WP1 Improved agronomy Data assets (knowledge Generic National and Primary Surveys, Bi-annual N/A N/A 10 per delta 2025 Output 3 packages formulated with products) number sub-national inventory stakeholders and designed of for delta systems scaled datasets/ through stakeholder publication organizations Uptake of knowledge products Percentag National and FGD, KII Annual 50% (data assets) e sub-national Number of tested agri-production Generic Sub-national/ Primary Survey Annual 3 systems (disaggregated by number Local and crops, aquaculture, geography, secondary farming system) Number of training courses Generic Sub-national Primary - Bi-annual 10 developed on diversified number survey; systems Secondary - reports Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 49 h WP1 Agri-business models Number of groups or cooperatives Generic Sub-national Primary and Primary – Annual N/A N/A 30 2025 Output 4 developed for selected value engaged in AVC (men, Women) number secondary surveys; chains to support diversified secondary - farming system developed through trialed with stakeholders local government and extension systems Increase in gross margin %, amount Local Primary and Primary – Annual N/A N/A 10% 2025 (USD/ha) Secondary surveys; increase secondary - increase in diversity of income Income through diversificati local on on government index % and extension systems Capacity building (Number of Generic Sub-national Primary and Primary – Annual N/A N/A 300 2025 people trained on new BM number Secondary surveys; disaggregated by gender) secondary - through local government and extension systems Work Package 2: Adapting deltaic production systems WP2 By 2025, national ministries Capacity building EoI and major NGOs in at least 3 Outcome countries use AMD co- Number of scaling partners Generic National and Primary: Primary - Once at the N/A N/A 3 scaling 2025 produced knowledge and deploying co-produced knowledge number sub-national MELIA surveys end of partners evidence to table at least three system Initiative nutrition sensitive interventions to reduce Innovations mortality, DALYs and micronutrient deficiencies, for Number of nutrition sensitive Generic National and Primary: Primary – Once at the N/A N/A 3 nutrition 2025 20,000 producers (80% interventions informed by number sub-national MELIA surveys end of sensitive women) and 100,000 deployed co-produced knowledge system Initiative interventions consumers. Number of consumers and 20,000 producers reached by deployed producers; co-produced knowledge 100,000 disaggregated by gender consumers Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 50 h Policies Number of policies, strategies, Generic National and Primary: Institutional Once at the N/A N/A 3 institutional 2025 and curricula developed/ modified number sub-national MELIA documentati end of documents to incorporate nutrition sensitive System on Initiative language or commitments WP2 Socially differentiated nutrition Capacity development (Number of Generic National and Primary: Primary - Annually N/A N/A 12 events 2024 Outcome 1 implications of deltaic food events where key institutional number sub-national MELIA MELIA systems transformation better stakeholders participated in co- System System, understood by institutional design of data collection activities attendance stakeholders or events where most cost- sheets and effective nutrition action identified event were presented, disaggregated by recordings; gender, age of participants) Secondary - Publications WP2 Most cost-effective nutrition Data Assets (number of reports, Generic National and Primary: Desk Once at the N/A N/A At least 6 2024 Outcome 2 sensitive actions identified and briefs, other knowledge products number sub-national MELIA Review end of the publications, agreed with key stakeholders identifying most cost-effective System Initiative 3 datasets nutrition sensitive actions) WP2 Nutrition sensitive thinking and Partners internalizing NS Generic National and Primary: Institutional Once at the N/A N/A At 2 partners 2024 Outcome approaches internalized by approaches number sub-national MELIA documentati end of the publish 3 & 4 partner institutions in 2 deltas System on Initiative commitment s to Stakeholders in 2 deltas have implement committed to implement NS recommended nutrition approaches sensitive actions WP2 Typology of effects of food Data Assets (number of Generic National and Primary: Publications Annually N/A N/A At least 6 2024 Output 1 systems transformation on publications, reports, data, and number sub-national MELIA ; datasets publications deltaic consumption and databases) System & 3 datasets production patterns and practices, differentiated by gender, age, etc. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 51 h WP2 Quantified, socially Data Assets (number of Generic National and Primary: Publications Annually N/A N/A At least 6 2024 Output 2 differentiated evidence of publications, reports, data, and number sub-national MELIA ; datasets publications nutrition outcomes of deltaic databases) System & 3 datasets food systems transformation. WP2 Menu of costed nutrition Generic National and Primary: Publications Annually N/A N/A At least 4 2024 Output 3 sensitive business cases Innovations (number of Business number sub-national MELIA ; costed tailored for mega-deltas cases) System business cases WP2 Guidelines for implementing Generic National and Primary: Publications Annually N/A N/A At least 4 2024 Output 4 nutrient sensitive actions in Data Assets (number of number sub-national MELIA ; sets of deltaic food systems. guidelines) System guidelines Work Package 3: De-risking delta-oriented value chains WP3 By 2025, digital climate Number of smallholders who have Generic National and Primary: Survey, Once at the N/A N/A ≥ 0.8 million 2025 EoI Outcome advisory and bundled services used DCAS and bundled services Number sub-national MELIA KIIs, end of the smallholder provided by public and private disaggregated by gender system supporting Initiative sector partners will be used by documents s (≥29% ≥ 0.8 million smallholders women) (≥29% women), with at least one financing partnership plan established to assure Number of financing partnership ≥ 1 sustainability and further plans financing scaling. partnership plan WP3 Public and private sector Number of next users providing Generic National and Primary: KIIs, Once at the N/A N/A ≥ 2 (public 2024 Outcome 1 partners access and use the innovation, disaggregated by number, sub-national MELIA supportive end of the improved DCAS and bundled type disaggrega system documents Initiative or private) services to promote inclusive ted partners per and resilient value chains (VCs) country (except India) WP3 Public and private Number of inclusive financing Generic International, Primary: Support Once at the N/A N/A ≥t 1 major 2024 Outcome 2 investors/financiers/insurers models modified in design or number, national MELIA letter, end of participate in inclusive implementation, disaggregated by disaggrega system meetings Initiative investment financing models to prevent type ted held modified to and mitigate the impact of climate and disaster risks in enhance delta-oriented VCs. DCAS and Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 52 h bundled services WP3 VC climate risk and Number of reports published Generic National and Primary: Self- Beyond year N/A N/A ≥ 1 report 2022/ Output 1 vulnerability assessments to number sub-national MELIA reporting 1 per country 2023 identify inclusive intervention system (total 5) strategies and options for DCAS and complementary services WP3 Business models for inclusive Number of business model Generic National and Primary: Self- By end of N/A N/A Model types 2023, Output 2 DCAS and bundled services innovations, disaggregated by number sub-national MELIA reporting; year 2 and 3 developed 2024 (financing, input supply, type system KII by end of market access, insurance) to 2023, of reduce risks in specific delta- which ≥ 1 oriented VCs has demonstrate d profitability by end of 2024 WP3 Inclusive and sustainable Number of financing innovations, Generic National and Primary: Self- By end of N/A N/A ≥ 2 2024 Output 3 financing models/partnerships disaggregated by type number sub-national MELIA reporting; year 3 innovative to support DCAS and bundled system KIIs financing services scaling models/ partnerships developed Work Package 4: Joined-up, gender equitable, inclusive deltaic systems governance Result Unit of Data Frequency Baseline Baseline type Geographic Data value year Target Target (outcome Result Indicator measure scope source collection of data ment method collection (outcome (outcom value year or output) only) e only) WP4 By 2025, at least 3 national Number of workshops, and Generic National, Primary: KII, self- 2023-2024 N/A Leading ≥ 3 policy 2025 EoI governments or international participants disaggregated by number provincial, MELIA reporting up to workshops in Outcome development partners work gender local system 2022 each AMD; with grassroots actors 40% including marginalized women attendees and youth to co-design gender are women equitable and socially and youth inclusive joined-up natural resources and food systems Number of collaboratively ≥ 5 designed governance strategies, strategies pathways, and innovations Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 53 h governance policies or Number of GESI-informed One strategies governance methodologies and overview toolkits report; ≥ 3 GESI toolkits Number of ongoing programs and National Primary: Primary, By end of Leading ≥ 5 projects applying NR-informed MELIA 2024 up to food systems governance system, 2022 innovations National media Increased donor, bilateral and ≥ 3 national investments promoting capacities for coherent policy formulation and implementation WP4 Policies and investment plans Number of joined-up and GESI- Generic National Primary: Primary, By end of N/A N/A 2 2025 Outcome 1 of 2 key national or informed policies and investment numbers MELIA FGD, KIIs year 2 international stakeholders plans attributable to WP4 system demonstrate attention to joined up and GESI-informed land-water-environment governance strategies WP4 Capacity of provincial and Number of GESI-informed land- Generic Provincial, Primary, Primary, Over the AMD N/A N/A ≥ 3 2025 Outcome 2 local public, private and civil water governance initiatives numbers, local MELIA FGD, KIIs, WP4 period society stakeholders to plan, implemented in specific location qualitative 2021-2024 finance and implement GESI- and informed food systems quantitative governance enhanced in 5 Reports of improved Generic analysis ≥ 2 initiatives linked to ongoing accountability of public, private numbers, land, water, environment and grassroots stakeholders projects WP4 More inclusive and climate Numbers and diversity of local Generic Provincial, Primary, Secondary, Over the AMD N/A N/A ≥ 3 2025 Outcome 3 resilient food systems through stakeholders engaged in numbers local MELIA Primary, WP4 period innovative increased representation and governance initiatives FGD, KIIs, 2021-2024 joined-up agency of grassroots actors, Qual-quant governance particularly women in the analysis models/ design and implementation of Quality of participation, and cross- partnerships joined-up land-water- sectoral design of Initiative developed environment governance and piloted initiatives in ongoing projects WP4 Comparative case study Synthesis reports Numbers National Secondary, Secondary, 2022 N/A N/A ≥ 6 datasets 2025 Output 1 syntheses of joined up and quality Primary Primary, in the AMDM approaches to water, of reports FGDs, KIIs 2 peer reviewed Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 54 h agriculture, environment publications governance & 3 policy briefs WP4 Collaboratively identified entry Number of strategies Generic National MELIA Institutional 2024 N/A N/A At least 2 2025 Output 2 points and actionable numbers documentati entry strategies for improving NR- on interventions informed food systems Qualitative and 2 governance, with potential for Analysis strategies scale up WP4 GESI-informed governance Numbers and content of capacity Generic National, Secondary, Secondary, 2023-2024 NA NA ≥ 5 training / 2025 Output 3 capacity building modules building modules numbers provincial, Primary, Primary capacity developed and piloted at local MELIA strengthenin national, provincial and local g initiatives scales Numbers of participants (disaggregated by gender, age, locations) WP4 Capacity and agency Numbers of women reporting Numbers Provincial, Primary, Primary, 2022-2024 N/A N/A ≥ 10 GESI- 2025 Output 4 strengthening strategies for capacity and agency to inform local MELIA FGD, KIIs, informed engaging women and local planning, design, and Qualitative food marginalized groups in the implementation interventions analysis systems design and implementation of governance joined-up NR-water-food strategies systems governance processes WP4 Participatory MEL system to MEL systems developed for MEL National, Primary, Primary 2022-2024 N/A N/A 1 design 2025 Output 5 track GESI, climate resilience assessing WP4 interventions and systems provincial and Most and institutional performance outcomes local Significant and accountability of WP4- Change supported interventions Stories Work Package 5: Evidence-based delta development planning WP5 By 2025, high-level Number of high-level Generic Regional Primary Media Once at the N/A - 9 2025 EoI policymakers and stakeholders/ partners/ policy Number articles end of the Outcome development partners in at makers making public statements initiative least 2 deltas involved in on the importance of 1CG-AMD knowledge integration networks make public Nominal value of investment USD Regional Primary Proposals, Once at the N/A - 1.8 billion statements on the importance plans informed by 1CG-AMD policy end of the of One CGIAR and AMD and science documents, Initiative engage with AMD to help reports design climate adaptation- oriented policies, projects and investment plans with the nominal value of at least US$1.8 billion. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 55 h WP5 Governments develop 3 policy Policies (number of policies Generic National Primary KII Once at the N/A - 3 policy 2025 Outcome 1 interventions to facilitate developed by government) Number end of the interventions inclusive climate-responsive Initiative delta development WP5 Development partners develop Number of development partners Generic National Primary KII Once at the N/A - 3 new 2025 Outcome 2 3 new projects (or adjust with developed or adjusted Number end of the projects current ones) to maximize projects Initiative climate adaptation and mitigation outcomes in delta development WP5 High resolution climate Data assets (# of climate risk Generic National Primary AMDs Annual N/A N/A 2 maps 2023 Output 1 change risk vulnerability maps maps developed) Number data source managemen for Mega-Deltas to inform t information strategic planning Data assets (# of climate risk system 1 map 2023 maps enhanced WP5 Climate action plans for Data assets (# suitability maps for Generic National Primary AMDs Annual 2 2022 4 2023 Output 2 leveraging financing from adaptation-mitigation options number data source managemen public and private sector developed) t information system Data assets (# MRV systems Primary Annual N/A - 1 2023 enhanced) data source # plans finance-proved Primary Annual 0 2022 2 2023 data source WP5 Inclusive climate-responsive Policy (# policy briefs discussed Generic National Primary AMDs Annual N/A N/A at least 3 2024 Output 3 delta development pathways with decision makers) number data source managemen policy briefs to guide transformative t information policies and investments system outlined WP5 Knowledge integration # new partnerships facilitated Generic Regional Primary and AMD and Annual N/A 2022 at least 3 2023 Output 4 network established which between 1CG Initiatives and AMD number secondary SG partnerships provides effective networks to country partners information integrate CGIAR science in system delta development strategies # scaling opportunities provided Regional Primary and Annual N/A 2022 10 2024 secondary # knowledge exchange events Regional Primary and Annual N/A - 6 2024 organized secondary Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 56 h 6.2 MELIA plan AMD will implement MEL by means of three components: (1) Internal Learning, (2) Proactive monitoring of progress and evolution of theories of change (TOCs), and (3) Impact Assessment Plans Internal learning AMD will track internal learning within WPs by means of six monthly whole-of-Initiative reviews that will cover the following areas in depth: 1. Evolution of TOCs. To evaluate and adjust TOCs in the light of on-going experience within deltas. This will help Ideas and strategies adapt quickly to new evidence and the evolving awareness of partners, while maintaining coherence amongst AMD Work Packages. 2. Scientific review of problems that research addresses. Especially important during early stages of the Initiative to share cross-disciplinary scientific learning amongst WPs to ensure that the research evolves in scope and depth as complex problems are understood better. In some cases, research approaches that appeared appropriate at the outset may require important modification to achieve AMD expectations. 3. Cross-learning to identify entirely new areas of science -sometimes offered to new innovation partners - that promise greater outcomes. For example, rapidly evolving domains such as digital agriculture, high-resolution satellite imagery, phenomics or social media sciences may present unforeseen opportunities to deliver increased outputs. 4. Partner evaluation. We expect institutional learning to present new opportunities to improve TOCs, especially towards the later stages of the Initiative. Reviews will be supported by: (1) an internal management team, (2) an external advisory panel comprising key stakeholders from AMD and CGIAR, (3) internal database of activities, outputs, partners, and scientific literature to ease monitoring and review of progress and adaptive capacity and (4) data describing the trajectories of conditions in deltas. Proactive monitoring of progress and evolution of TOCs Proactive analysis of progress along TOCs will occur by three-monthly updates by WPs to include (1) Progressive tracking of TOCs, (2) Tracking of activities and outputs, (3) Adjustments in TOCs to account for emerging insights of problems, insights and capabilities, and (4) Identification of new opportunities, including new partners, emerging issues of relevance to donors and apparent complementarity / competition with other programs that may advise changes in TOCs. Impact assessment plans Detailed impact assessment plans will be prepared by the final year of the Initiative to include: 1. Trajectory of conditions in deltas: Essential background data to any IA in this dynamic situation, which must take into account the conditions that would exist, were no Initiative undertaken. 2. Analysis of expected impacts from specific WPs: Each WP will conduct specific MELIA studies providing data related to indicators listed in the results framework. WP1 and WP5 will conduct stakeholder surveys to identify scalable agronomic practices as well as extrapolation domains across deltas. WP2 will survey consumption preferences disaggregated by gender and social groups and nutrient yields of different production Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 57 h systems to develop nutrition profiles. WP3 will conduct participatory learning events and provide relevant data through KIIs and workshops. WP3 will further analyze market prospects for DCAS. WP4 will develop a participatory MEL system to track GESI and climate resilience of interventions and institutional performance. WP5 will govern the AMD management information system to track progress across indicators. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 58 h 6.3 Planned MELIA studies and activities Type of MELIA study or activity Result or indicator title that the Anticipated year of Co-delivery of planned MELIA How the MELIA study or activity will inform MELIA study or activity will completion1 study with other Initiatives management decisions and contribute to contribute to. internal learning Number of Initiative Innovation Innovation package linkages with Packages that have undergone Initiatives UU, ClimBer, The study will inform the design, implementation Scaling Readiness Assessment Study evidence-based and quality Rethinking Food Markets and and monitoring of an innovation and scaling (3) controlled/validated Scaling Readiness 2024 Value Chains for Inclusion and strategy; scaling readiness metrics will be used in assessments informing innovation and Sustainability, TAFFSA, and an optional innovation portfolio management scaling strategies LCSR system. Review the TOC, realignment of AMD’s strategy, and seizing emerging Learning webinars (3) opportunities in the dynamic policy One per year Each webinar will end with concrete action points to spaces of climate resilience and be implemented the following year agriculture Surveys related to WP deliverables and indicators (WP1: agronomic Some surveys may be developed Surveys (2+) practices, WP2: nutrition profiles). Area Mid 2024 after discussions with other The surveys will help AMD understand the numbers and extent of surveys will be Initiatives (to be determined reached and find ways to adjust the strategy determined during inception phase. during inception phase) accordingly. Baseline stakeholder surveys/interviews All policy and program outcomes 2022 2022 Inform overall engagement strategy for AMD WPs Track Initiative outcomes Endline stakeholder surveys/interviews All policy and program outcomes 2025 With Foresight Initiative (tbd) Gauge progress towards achievement of outcome indicators Participatory MEL system WP4, output 5 2024 With HER+ (tbd) Track GESI and climate resilience of interventions and institutional performance Other MELIA activity MEL routine data to track progress Regular MEL will track AMD progress based on the against all relevant outcomes and All outputs/outcomes in Section 6.1 2024 None Results Framework. Data collected will be used for outputs (see related methods in WP3 annual internal performance, reviews, reporting and and WP5) planning 1 based on 2022-2024 initiative timeline (based on 2022-24 Initiative timeline) (based on 2022-24 Initiative timeline) Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 59 h 7. Management plan and risk assessment 7.1 Management plan Deltaic food systems are complex and dynamic, making it difficult to predict exactly how planned interventions will play out in practice. AMD will be managed in a flexible manner that supports multiple iterations of experiential learning and systematically tests TOC assumptions to support empirically grounded adaptions and course corrections. The AMD leadership team – comprised of the Initiative lead, co-lead, manager, Work Package leads, and MELIA manager – will meet virtually on a quarterly basis to coordinate Initiative management and address emerging challenges and opportunities. This team will be responsible for revising Initiative and Work Package TOCs and the MELIA plan, scaling readiness process and risk management plan, in conjunction with partners and stakeholders, by month six of project inception. These will be revisited every six months to evaluate progress against milestones and targets and to validate/revise assumptions. Continuous collection of monitoring data, plus periodic studies undertaken as a contribution to MELIA (see Section 6.3) will provide additional detailed evidence of:1) Impacts of agronomic and nutrition sensitive interventions, DCAS and bundled services, and innovative NR-water-food system governance arrangements; 2) The extent to which assumptions made in the TOCs are valid (or not). Reporting on progress against MELIA targets will take place annually. Project activities and budgets, TOCs, MELIA, and scaling readiness plans will be adjusted accordingly. Projected benefits and the assumptions that underpin them will be revised annually based on progress made, additional data, and enhanced understanding of uptake. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 60 h 7.2 Summary management plan Gantt table Initiative start date: Timelines April, 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025 Description of key deliverables Work Packages Q Q Q Q Q1 2 3 Q4 1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 4 Q1 1. Spatial analysis for identification and characterization of Work Package 1: impact zones and technology targeting for production systems Adapting deltaic 1 2 3 2. Learning alliances established to mainstream social learning production system of improved agronomy and VCs for diversified production system 3. Delta-oriented Improved agronomy incorporated at scale 1. Enhanced quantitative and qualitative knowledge base on Work Package 2: nutrition implications of drivers of food systems transformation Nutrition sensitive deltaic agrifood 1 1 2 3 2. Estimates of economic and nutritional costs and benefits of nutrition sensitive policies and practices systems 3. Delta and agro-ecosystem specific guidelines of implementing nutrition sensitive policies and practices 1. VC climate risk and vulnerability assessments to identify inclusive intervention strategies and options for DCAS and complementary services. (India light version) Work Package 3: 2. Business models for inclusive DCAS and bundled services De-risking delta- oriented value 1 2 2 3 (financing, input supply, market access, insurance) for delta- oriented VCs (except India) (concepts year 2; evaluated chains pilots/profitability year 3) 3. Inclusive and sustainable financing models to support scaling of DCAS and bundled services for delta-oriented VCs (except India) Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 61 h 1. DSTs on pathways to NR-informed food systems governance co-designed by public, private and civil society Work Package 4: actors, with an intentional focus on gender equality and Joined-up, gender social inclusion (GESI) equitable, 2. Institutional arrangements within a decentralization inclusive deltaic 1 2 3 framework to enable more joined-up governance of NR- systems informed food system interventions piloted and strategies for governance scale up identified 3. MEL data and evidence on efficacy and uptake of WP4- supported policy and capacity strengthening interventions and scalable recommendations post project Work Package 5: 1. Climate risk maps developed for Cambodia and Bangladesh Evidence-based 1 2 3 2. Climate action plans endorsed by policy makers in Vietnam delta development 3. Ten high-priority One CGIAR innovations supported for planning scaling in focus countries in advanced track 1. Innovation Packages defined Innovation 2. Seven documented scaling ambitions, vision of success and Packages & 2 2 roadmap for use of scaling readiness for selected core Scaling 1 2 3 3 innovations (light track) Readiness 3. Three evidence-based scaling readiness assessment reports and related scaling strategies for Innovation Package (standard track) 1. Initiative reviews and internal learning tracking within Work 1 1 1 Packages MELIA 2 1 2 1 2 3 2. Monitoring reports toward output and outcome goals 3. Impact assessment for end-of-Initiative outcomes and other key components of AMD’s TOC Project 1. Detailed Implementation work plan management 1 2 3 2 3 2 3 2. Annual financial and technical progress reports 3. Program management meetings Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 62 h 7.3 Risk assessment Top 5 risks to achieving Likelihood Impact impact Description Risk Existing Controls/Mitigations Further controls/ Mitigation score actions or mechanisms actions/ mechanisms to be (all Work Packages) taken 1-5 1-5 ● Careful design of planned ● Exploring possible Political instability/ conflict or Continued political instability and activities in Myanmar partnerships with non- adverse political climate sanctions imposed by donor countries in ● Phased start of activities in governmental makes operation in target Myanmar would make it difficult to 4 4 16 Myanmar beginning with remote organizations and countries unviable conduct activities in country work private sector organizations in Myanmar Unable to incentivize Entrenched cultural norms and lack of ● Build on widely tested ● Inclusion of a behavioral adoption of effective buy-in from smallholders, private sector technologies and practices economist in the project adaptation measures in delta partners, policy makers, and other team to explore countries by farmers, value stakeholders would prevent AMD and 3 5 15 innovative incentive chain actors, and policy its proposed adaptation measures from options makers reaching critical mass Pooled funding is the main funding ● Continued requests for ● Request for support Initiative relies on assumption source for AMD given the lengthy assurance that pooled funding from One CGAIR that pooled funding will be the process in mobilizing bilateral funds. will be available Science Group Directors main source compared to Failure to obtain necessary resources 4 3 12 ● Involvement of donor in fundraising bilateral from donors would prevent AMD from organizations in the consultation achieving its intended outcomes. process ● Expanded consultation process ● Strict guideline for AMD Lack of sense of ownership of with broad participation by to involve national the Research and Innovation Failure to engage with critical Strategy by public, private, stakeholders and inability to address stakeholders partners in all R4D ● Deliberate planning for activities and civil society stakeholders local and regional priorities will reduce 3 4 12 involved in foresight and the efficiency of implementing AMD stakeholder involvement in activities and innovations implementation of activities priority-setting processes ● Building on strong existing partnerships and relationships Travel restrictions and quarantine ● Extensive planning for continuity ● Consulting key COVID-19 limits local and measures will reduce the ability to have via virtual meetings and stakeholders on the way international travel and 3 3 9 communications and increased forward and reviewing interaction with stakeholders in-country and in-person meetings, causing delays in implementation use of national consultants preparedness to address risks Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 63 h 8. Policy compliance, and oversight 8.1 Research governance Researchers involved in the implementation of this Initiative will comply with the procedures and policies determined by the System Board to be applicable to the delivery of research undertaken in furtherance of CGIAR’s 2030 Research and Innovation Strategy, thereby ensuring that all research meets applicable legal, regulatory and institutional requirements; appropriate ethical and scientific standards; and standards of quality, safety, privacy, risk management and financial management. This includes CGIAR’s CGIAR Research Ethics Code and to the values, norms and behaviors in CGIAR’s Ethics Framework and in the Framework for Gender, Diversity and Inclusion in CGIAR’s workplaces 8.2 Open and FAIR data assets Researchers involved in the implementation of this Initiative shall adhere to the terms of the Open and FAIR Data Assets Policy. The AMD Initiative will align with the OFDA Policy’s Open and FAIR requirements, ensuring: ● Rich metadata conforming to the CGIAR Core Schema to maximize findability, including geolocation information where relevant. ● Accessibility by utilizing unrestrictive, standard licenses (e.g. Creative Commons for non-software assets; General Public License (GPL))/Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) for software) and depositing assets in open repositories. ● Wider access through deposition in open repositories of translations and requiring minimal data download to assist with limited internet connectivity. ● Interoperability by annotating dataset variables with ontologies where possible (controlled vocabularies where not possible). ● Adherence to Research Ethics Code (Section 4) relating to responsible data (through human subject consent, avoiding personally identifiable information in data assets and other data-related risks to communities). Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 64 h 9. Human resources 9.1 Initiative team Category Area of expertise Short description of accountabilities Cross-cutting Research MELIA manager, specialist Operationalize MELIA system across WPs and countries Research Data Science, GIS specialist, statistician Design and implementation of modeling and scenario analysis Support Initiative Coordinator Management and coordination of AMD across WPs and countries Support Communications manager and specialist Support communication and dissemination activities Work Package 1: Adapting deltaic production systems Research Innovation System, Social science, Partnership Establishing Learning alliances to facilitate inclusive social learning around and Engagement value chain development Research GIS, remote sensing, spatial modelling, geo- Suitability assessment and characterization of agri-production systems spatial programming based on current biophysical and socio-economic profiles Research System Agronomy, Economist, Extension Improved agronomy at scale using decision enabling advisories and Agronomy/Technician approaches for diversified production system Research Mechanization and Post-harvest, Socio-economist, Market linkages, Value chain, Developing agri-business models for selected agriculture value chains Work Package 2: Nutrition sensitive deltaic agrifood systems Research Economist/Nutritionist Provide analysis to improve nutrition attributes in food systems Research Policy engagement, policy analysis and Support in developing nutrition sensitive policies, actions, incentives and outreach investments Research Anthropologist & gender specialist Qualitative evaluation of changing behaviors of food systems actors Research Survey and data collection Designing, conducting and analyzing surveys/ ethnographic studies Research Foresight modelling Cost-benefit analysis and modelling Work Package 3: De-risking delta-oriented value chains Research Value chain climate risk and vulnerability Coordination with public-private sector value chain (VC) partners, co-assessment designing strategies to reduce VC risks and vulnerabilities Research Climate-forecast, climate advisory, digital Prioritize and quantify climate risks, support development of improved and support systems and platforms inclusive DCAS and bundled services Research Financial sector specialist Development of financing models and partnerships Research Research support and data analysis Support in data collection and analysis Support Country coordinator and assistant Lead coordination and project management in country Work Package 4: Joined-up, gender equitable, inclusive deltaic systems governance Social/Political scientist: policy and institutional Research analysis, gender equality and social inclusion, Support analysis, recommendations, and activities in relation to policy, anthro-sociologist gender equality, and social inclusion Research Social scientist with GESI training Promoting inclusive, GESI-informed processes Research Institutional specialist Strengthening capacity of provincial and local stakeholders Research Survey and data collection Designing, conducting and analyzing surveys/ ethnographic studies Work Package 5: Evidence-based delta development planning Research Crop/Climate modeler, GIS specialist, climate Modeling and scenario analysis for climate action plans & climate risk migration specialist vulnerability maps Research Policy/market, innovations, strategy, agriculture Development of inclusive climate-responsive delta development pathways, tech. deployment specialist support in knowledge integration network Support Partnerships and engagement Stakeholder coordination in relation to knowledge integration network Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 65 h 9.2 Gender, diversity and inclusion in the workplace The Initiative team will meet CGIAR’s gender target of a minimum of 40% women in professional roles and will also include researchers from diverse backgrounds. Across the 5 WPs, the Initiative will engage at least 40% women researchers, and around 50% of this will comprise mid-career scientists. AMD will ensure that team members from CG partner institutions and new hires will be done by intentionally bridging the gender and diversity gaps. AMD will also build GESI capacity of WP teams during inception and will use One CGIAR G&D tools and training to address unconscious bias and hierarchies in the planning and design of research and outputs. In addition, the key focus of WP4 is to address social exclusions of marginalized women, youth, and smallholders in food systems innovations at the local community levels, as well as tackle systemic masculinities in NR- and Food Systems institutions. Informed by the CGIAR GENDER Platform and HER+, the AMD adopts a gender transformative lens to ensure that the outcome of AMD is actionable pathways to more inclusive and sustainable NR-Food Systems innovations. This will be achieved by building the capacity of official, non-governmental, private sector and grassroots actors and institutions in the three deltas on Gender Equality and Social Inclusion. 9.3 Capacity development AMD capacity building will focus on AMD team leaders and selected members of our partner network. Within the AMD team, all team leaders and project management will complete training on inclusive leadership within three months of launch. Within six months, Initiative team members (including those described above) and leads from partners will complete additional training in GESI and team building. Training will focus on self-awareness and practices that support women, young people and under-represented minorities in the workplace. Training will include topics related to whistleblowing, power relations and how to escalate concerns to appropriate authorities for review and corrective action. Training will include sessions on CGIAR’s values, research ethics, data management, code of conduct and the role of learning within the CGIAR. Throughout the Initiative, opportunities will be explored to develop the capacity of junior members within AMD and key partner organizations by means of (1) Mentorship programs, (2) Internships for exchange between AMD and partner organizations and (3) a fund for representation at international conferences of junior staff and key partners. These processes will be initiated at a kick-off event for AMD staff and key partners. The management team will be charged with establishing these processes within the first six months and for annual reporting. Finally, we will build research capacity amongst junior scientists through mentoring by AMD scientists and associates to develop insights from research. Using the legitimacy and relevance of research in AMD, junior scientists will be mentored to publish in international journals. Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 66 h 10. Financial resources Breakdown per Work Package USD 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Total Crosscutting across 865,386 1,161,489 1,329,642 3,356,517 Work Packages Work Package 1 1,482,713 2,060,529 2,143,218 5,686,460 Work Package 2 1,356,940 1,781,356 1,973,572 5,111,868 Work Package 3 1,240,321 2,397,976 1,718,630 5,356,927 Work Package 4 1,636,054 1,553,361 1,678,221 4,867,636 Work Package 5 1,278,586 1,895,289 2,056,717 5,230,592 Innovation packages 140,000 150,000 100,000 390,000 & Scaling Readiness Total 8,000,000 11,000,000 11,000,000 30,000,000 Breakdown per Geography USD 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Total Region (Southeast 4,640,275 5,880,978 6,524,139 17,045,392 Asia) Region (South Asia) 3,359,725 5,119,022 4,475,861 12,954,608 Bangladesh 2,084,128 2,388,239 2,765,526 7,237,893 India 1,275,597 2,730,783 1,710,335 5,716,715 Cambodia 1,759,650 2,065,030 2,243,359 6,068,039 Vietnam 1,894,535 2,212,750 2,508,111 6,615,396 Myanmar 986,090 1,603,198 1,772,669 4,361,957 Total 8,000,000 11,000,000 11,000,000 30,000,000 Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 67 h Annexes ● Annex 2.4: Priority setting: Further details ● Annex 2.6.1: Letters of support ● Annex 2.6.2: AMD country strategies and priorities ● Annex 2.6.3: Ongoing and pipeline donor initiatives ● Annex 2.6.4: Interactions with other CGIAR Initiatives ● Annex 2.7: Projection of benefits computations and assumptions ● Annex 3: Partners (Work Package outputs) ● Annex 4: Innovation inventory ● Annex 5: Partners (Impact Area) Securing the food systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for climate and food resilience (AMD), 23 November 2021 68 h References 1 World Bank Global Subnational Atlas of Poverty (2021). 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