Climate, peace, and security in fishery management: a participatory appraisal of August 2023 Nairobi Leonardo Medina Santa Cruz, Anna Belli, Victor Villa, Ignacio Madurga-López, Benson Kenduiywo, Grazia Pacillo, Peter Läderach, Joh Hellin, Stefan Sieber, Michelle Bonatti Authors Leonardo, Medina Santa Cruz1,2, Anna, Belli1, Victor, Villa1, Ignacio Madurga-López1, Benson Kenduiywo1, Grazia Pacillo1, Peter Läderach1, Joh Hellin3, Stefan Sieber1,4, Michelle Bonatti1,4 1 Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Germany 2 International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) 3 International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) 4 Faculty of Life Sciences Thaer-Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany Suggested Citation Medina Santa Cruz, L., Belli, A., Villa, V., Madurga-López, I., Kenduiywo, B., Pacillo, G., Läderach, P., Hellin, J., Sieber, S., Bonatti, M. 2023. Climate, peace, and security in fishery management: a participatory appraisal of Kenya’s Lake Victoria fishery. In Shaping the Future of Climate Change Action Plans for Sustainable Development in Eastern Africa. Nairobi, Kenya. This work is licensed under Creative Commons License CC BY-4.0. Acknowledgments This work was carried out with support from the CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience, ClimBeR. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund. 2 Table of Content Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 3 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 2. Materials and Methods ........................................................................................................... 5 2.1. Methods ......................................................................................................................................... 5 2.2. Case Study ...................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1. Climate Exposure and Vulnerability .............................................................................................. 7 3.2. Climate-related security risks ........................................................................................................ 8 Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 14 1. Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 14 Abstract The link between climate change and conflict has been widely studied in the past decade. Despite empirical evidence leading to ambiguous, sometimes contradictory, conclusions, it is generally accepted that climate- related security risks are manifested through a non-linear and complex interplay between climate threats, sources of vulnerability, and drivers of conflict. The effects of this “vicious circle” are underlined by socioeconomic and political factors acting as drivers of insecurity. Settings affected by fragility, high degrees of vulnerability, weak institutions, social fragmentation and reduced coping capacity are most at risk of environmental scarcity, climate variability or extremes compounding with risks of conflict. At the same time, collaborative responses to stress and crisis are well documented, and the potential of local climate adaptation efforts towards fostering social cohesion widely recognized. The literature on climate security in Kenya emphasizes the role of food systems and small-scale agriculture in increasing population vulnerability or enhancing resilience to climate-related security risks. However, the field has for the most part focused on farming and livestock systems. In contributing to this growing body of literature, this article aims to contribute to a better understanding of the interlinkages between climate change, human insecurity and conflict with a focus on fishery-dependent communities. Building upon qualitative participatory appraisal methods, this research aims to develop an understanding of climate-related security risks that better relates to people´s everyday experience of the compounding risks brought about by climate variability and human insecurity in a fishery context. It also intends to advice programmatic practices on conflict-sensitive climate action. Data was gathered through focus group discussions with fisher community members from the Banyala Indigenous peoples in Busia County. This article categorizes climate-related security risks as experienced in everyday lives and presents community-led policy recommendations for conflict-sensitive climate adaptation in the Lake Victoria fishery. 3 1. Introduction The effects of climate change and conflict act as compounding and interrelated stressors over people's wellbeing. Although there is a consensus that climate change interacts with ongoing conflicts by reducing the adaptive capacity of societies and governments, many questions remain around the multiple ways in which climate and conflict are interlinked. Critiques within the climate security field often highlight the limitations of structural approaches in understanding the causal pathways between climate change and conflict. These limitations are frequently related to sampling biases during data collection, a lack of assessments focusing on micro-level insecurity, a failure to account for conflict's spatial and temporal scales, and a disregard for power relations in conceptualizing security, vulnerability, and resilience. (Abrahams & Carr, 2017; Mach et al., 2020). A recent review of the climate security literature by Buhaug & von Uexkull (2021) proposed to conceptualize the link between climate-related impacts and conflict by accounting for three well- established fields of scientific inquiry: the determinants of social vulnerability to climate change and variability; the climatic drivers of human insecurity; and the societal and environmental impacts of conflict and insecurity over vulnerability. These reinforcing dynamics can potentially trap a society in a “vicious circle” of climate and insecurity, made up of climate-insecurity feedback loops, in turn manifested through a non-linear and complex interplay between climate threats, sources of vulnerability, and drivers of conflict. In developing comprehensive understandings of climate-related security risks, research ought to account for the complex web of social-ecological interrelations between drivers of conflict, human security, resilience, and climate vulnerability as experienced by people in their everyday lives (Augsten et al., 2022). The literature on climate security furthermore emphasizes the role of food systems and small-scale agriculture in increasing population vulnerability or enhancing resilience to climate-related security risks (Buhaug et al., 2023). However, the focus of research and interventions has primarily centred on farming and livestock systems thereby omitting the fishing sector. Despite the significant centrality of these fields, it is important to recognize that fisheries in many developing countries also play a crucial role for economic growth, job creation, food security and cultural value (FAO/OECD, 2014; Finegold, 2009). While the transformation and adaptation of fisheries has a great untapped potential to help reduce conflicts and build sustainable peace, it is also true that climate-related security risks in fishery contexts are likely to emerge as the climate crisis intensifies (Mendenhall, 2020; Burden & Fujita, 2019; Hendrix & Lien, 2021). Fisheries also face unique impacts of climate change that pose important challenges and complexities. Climate extremes and variability endanger marine and coastal ecosystems, undermining biodiversity and influencing the distribution, abundance and productivity of fish stocks. Changes in ocean temperatures, water salinity and acidification are already negatively impacting fish stocks in Asia and Africa, putting stress over dwindling resources and undermining livelihoods and food security (IPCC 2022; IPCC 2014). This, in turn, may increase the risk of conflict over resources between different users and across jurisdictional boundaries and augment criminal activities such as piracy and illegal fishing as well as spark territorial disputes between countries and fishing populations due to shifting boundaries and fish movements (Mendenhall et al. 2020; Adewumi et al. 2022). However, these climate-related risks to fisheries remain an unexplored topic. This gap suggests the need for evidence to support activities that ensure the sector's 4 transformation contributes to adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods and fosters peace and social cohesion. This paper aims to address this gap in the climate security literature by examining the challenges posed by climate change to societal instability in Lake Victoria fishery along with the opportunities that climate adaptation action presents towards enhancing social cohesion. The study intends to contribute to knowledge on climate security by expounding the interconnections between climate change, human insecurity, and conflict within fishing communities. Data was gathered through focus group discussions (FGDs) with fishery-dependent members of the Banyala Indigenous peoples in Busia County, Kenya. 2. Materials and Methods 2.1. Methods The appraisal method used in this study facilitates a community-level understanding of perceptions of environmental and conflict-related collective challenges. Moreover, it provides a platform to challenge institutional structures that sustain the underlying causes of vulnerability. The method also examines ongoing community-level responses, identifying adaptive strategies which have most successfully enhanced local capacities towards managing climate risks, along with those which are currently being overwhelmed. This ultimately allows for the collective development of policy recommendations for conflict-sensitive climate adaptation that builds upon local adaptive capacities and accounts for local settings. The method consists of a rapid assessment integrating three phases, each with a goal to: 1) recognize gender-differentiated community knowledge around social-ecological change; 2) define drivers of vulnerability to climate hazards and insecurity that are grounded in local experiences and traditions; and 3) explore meaningful opportunities for collective action that simultaneously fosters resilience and sustainable peacebuilding. The approach is based on three methodological phases, that are further made up by six steps (Appendices - Table 1) each using different appraisal tools to facilitate a joint reflexive dialogue with community members. The first and second phases were conducted through FGDs held separately for women and men, with representatives of various social groups (e.g. youth, people with disabilities, widowed, etc), hence allowing to identify intersectional drivers of vulnerability and different perceptions of community-level responses to risk management strategies. Phase 3 on collective action planning was facilitated through working groups in which women and men were distributed equally. The details of the different phases can be found in the Appendices. 2.2. Case Study 5 The Banyala Indigenous Peoples are a Bantu ethnic community that originated from Uganda and settled in Kenya, mainly in Busia and Kakamega counties. In 2019, the Banyala population surpassed 850,000 members, the majority of which live in Busia County (KNBS, 2019) and rely traditionally on fishing for income (Figure 1). However, the plummeting of fishery stocks, biophysical changes in aquatic ecosystems, and the introduction of more stringent regulation on fishing practices has fostered a livelihood strategy shift towards agriculture and cattle herding. At the same time, more frequent and intense floods have undermined local capacities to develop alternative livelihood strategies (MoALF, 2016). Over the last two decades, intensive fishing and other factors have reduced the Nile perch population in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB), leading to an increase in illegal fishing practices, which has further reduced fish populations and contributed to widespread poverty in these communities. Efforts to address these challenges through locally regulated Beach Management Units (BMUs) that increase community participation have been hindered by inconsistent leadership, inadequate power transfer and insufficient capacities (Obiero et al., 2015). As a result, fishery management has shifted to become more centralized and even militarized to combat illegal fishing, increasing in turn the criminalization of fishermen. For decades, Bunyala sub-county in the Lake Victoria Basin has faced prolonged droughts, severe storms, and recurring floods. These environmental challenges have had a detrimental effects on agricultural productivity as well as have hindered community capacity to recover and deploy suitable coping strategies (MoALF, 2016; UNECA, 2014; Gabrielsson et al., 2013). The region's vulnerability to floods is exacerbated by high water levels in Lake Victoria and the River Nzoia, making it the most flood-prone area in Kenya (GoK, 2007). Increasingly more intense flooding has led to numerous threats for livelihood support systems, such as food shortages - usually during rainy seasons - widespread displacement, destruction of property and infrastructure, disease outbreaks, and a disruption of traditional cultural and social practices (Odida & Nabiswa, 2020). 6 Figure 1: The study area - Busia county - consists of seven sub-counties: Budalangi, Funyula, Matayos, Butula, Nambale, Teso South, and Teso North. Budalangi and Funyula sub-counties borders Lake Victoria while Nzoia and Yala rivers pass through Budalangi sub-county only to drain into Lake Victoria. The community is settled in Port Bunyala, Budalangi sub-county. 3. Discussion 3.1. Climate Exposure and Vulnerability The fishing Banyala communities in Port Bunyala have observed significant climatic and environmental changes. These changes mainly include more frequent unpredictable dry seasons and prolonged dry-spells, resulting in crop failure and diminished fish catches. Rainy seasons are also perceived as shorter, but with more concentrated and intense rainfall. Additionally, the traditional indicators that were once relied upon for predicting upcoming rains, such as shifting wind patterns, are no longer deemed reliable method. These changing climatic patterns have significant impacts on the community. Sudden and intense rains are perceived as the main cause of subsequent climatic hazards and increased insecurity among the population. Floods due to heavy rains often result in the displacement of people who are forced to seek shelter in temporary camps, thereby compromising their security. Intense rains also pose several economic threats such as crop destruction, damaged infrastructure, post-harvest losses (rotting fish), and disrupted 7 transportation routes. The resulting floods usually lead to a higher incidence of hunger, the disruption of income-generating activities, a higher incidence of water-borne diseases, as well as a greater dependency on humanitarian aid. While mild floods can sometimes increase catch rates and incomes due to fish migration to freshwater inputs in the lake, more intense flooding and subsequent waterlogging are still viewed as a highly destructive threat that poses numerous challenges to community development. Stagnated water in the locality´s lower zones can frequently exceed one meter in height, leading to the destruction of buildings and commonly used boreholes, thereby representing a significant challenge to water availability. Furthermore, non-receded water is often polluted with organic matter, increasing the incidence of water- borne diseases. It also contains elevated levels of chemical pollutants, such as fertilizers and pesticides, which poses a health challenge to which children are highly vulnerable. Following these climatic changes, members of the Banyala Indigenous Peoples report a reduction in the catches of Nile perch and Nile tilapia from Lake Victoria. Fish sizes and abundances tend to decrease during droughts and increase during floods, with fish movement patterns closely linked to changes in wind and precipitation. Due to stronger and more unpredictable wind patterns, fish populations alter their movement, plus fishers experience more dangerous conditions when going deep into the lake. Adaptive responses to changing fish stocks in the lake are discussed as limited to increasing fishing efforts. Many fishers in Lake Victoria have opted to cover a larger area of the lake in search of fish, or to increase the amount of time they spend fishing. Migrating to new fishing grounds or changing the target species are also common strategies. All these responses, however, aim at increasing catches, hence further overfishing the already strained lake’s fauna. Therefore, climate change is not the primary cause of the lake's declining fish stocks. Overfishing, changing biological conditions in the lake due to wetland and forest degradation, and increased runoff of agricultural inputs from upstream all contribute to catch declines. 3.2. Climate-related security risks Pathway 1: Climate change is forcing Banyala people into a livelihood activity intertwined with cross-border insecurity risks. To preserve fish populations in Lake Victoria, the Ugandan and Kenyan governments have introduced more strict regulations on lake access and fishing equipment. However, due to limited access to necessary resources, the Banyala are unable to adapt to new regulations, leading community members to resort to illegal fishing activities within Kenya and across the Ugandan border, exposing themselves to the risk of arrest, torture, property destruction, forced bribes, and even death at the hands of authorities, pirates, and other fishers. Additionally, conflicts frequently arise between Ugandan and Kenyan fishers, primarily due to competing interests in accessing fishing spots, leading to a growing number of incidents related to equipment theft. Increasing risks from more stringent regulations and criminalization, coupled with dwindling fish populations in Lake Victoria, are among the main drivers for Banyala populations seeking alternative livelihoods in farming and livestock herding. Unfortunately, the loss of livestock and crops due 8 to increasing flooding greatly impairs the capacity of Banyala community to diversify livelihood strategies. As a result, many young men have returned to fishing. Despite the security risks associated with fishing, community members and representatives from the local Beach Management Units (BMUs) have observed an increase in the number of fishers. Thus, climate change is pushing Banyala populations into a livelihood activity directly associated with cross-border insecurity. Pathway 2: The increasing frequency and intensity of rapid onset floods leads to temporary displacement across the community. Despite significant advancements in disaster risk management, many challenges remain to protect Banyala people from recurring floods. The increased frequency and intensity of flooding pose substantial risks, resulting in loss of lives, widespread loss of property and infrastructure destruction. Important community establishments, such as schools, have been frequently relocated due to recurring floods. Waterlogging, which is common after flooding, leads the community to face an increased incidence of diseases, including outbreaks of cholera, typhoid and mosquitoes related disease. The provision of food falls shortly to adequately cover household´s subsistence, hence forcing people, mainly men, to return to their flooded homesteads in pursuit of their daily livelihoods and alternative incomes. Furthermore, temporary settlement in displacement camps introduces various forms of insecurity risks, including an increase in the incidence of crime and sexual abuse, substance abuse, among other concerns. Vandalism among the youth and children is also becoming more widespread, and property loss due to encroachment is a pervasive issue during displacement processes. Due to alarming rates of teenage pregnancies, crime, and early marriages, some parents even choose not to relocate to the camps, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the community. Pathway 3: Increasingly scarce natural resources have led to a higher frequency of intra-community conflicts. In a context of communal land management, the relocation of people to less-prone flooding areas after extreme weather events, as well as the coexistence of livestock and crop production activities, have resulted in an increase in land-based disputes among neighbours. Additionally, the rising water levels of Lake Victoria during recent years have submerged previously used farmland. The ownership of land in relation to the lake, as defined by land deeds, has caused private lands along the lake's edge to be displaced and overlapping with land upstream, intensifying conflicts within the community. The resolution of these conflicts often involves the intervention of community elders, local chiefs, or religious institutions. When this fails, government land surveyors get involved to provide a technical and formal solution to the conflict. However, community members also report that at times these conflicts turn violent. 4. Conclusion and Outlook 9 The effects of climate change on natural resource availability and people´s livelihoods can contribute to perpetuate, and at times exacerbate, broader social conflicts. In this study, community members perceived climate as a driver of intra-community and transboundary disputes over fishing resources and land for subsistence and alternative livelihoods. Participants also anticipated that future climate risks, including increased temperature, rainfall variability, and drought, will further impact food security, livelihoods, indigenous identity, and institutional capacities, thereby increasing potential conflict risks. If left unaddressed, ongoing conflict dynamics may worsen under more challenging climate conditions. Simultaneously, participants recognized that efforts in natural resource management and climate change adaptation might foster cooperation between conflicting groups, assisting in developing resilient institutions capable of mitigating the disruptive effects of insecurity. It is then crucial to deploy conflict- sensitive resilience building actions that align with community priorities and leverage local knowledge. Based on these findings, we summarised policy recommendations developed and prioritised by community members to mitigate climate security risks and create opportunities for resilience and sustainable peacebuilding. Given the nature of the security issues faced by Banyala fishers, participants in Bunyala sub-county proposed solutions to improve state-society relations and protect livelihoods, aiming to reduce the need for cross-border fishing. Community-level solutions focused on increasing the capacity to comply with fishing regulations on both sides of the border, maintaining agricultural and off-farm livelihood strategies in the face of climate change, promoting collective action and participation in decision making spaces for fishery management and safeguarding human rights. A key priority strategy identified was reducing community’s reliance on fishing to discourage illegal border crossing. Five key solutions were proposed namely: (1) diversification of livelihood strategies and food production systems to reduce dependence on fishing, (2) strengthen the capacity of fishers to comply with fishing regulation, as well as empowering local institutions for effective fishery management and enforcement of fishing bylaws, (3) implementation of a swamp restoration programme that facilitates the flow of receded water, and protects surrounding farmland from flooding, (4) fostering community participation in decision making spaces towards the harmonization of fishing regulations between Kenya and Uganda, and (5) increase cross-border collaboration to reduce the instances of corruption, theft, torture and killings. 10 References Abrahams, D., Carr, E.R. 2017. Understanding the Connections Between Climate Change and Conflict: Contributions From Geography and Political Ecology. 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Methodology Table 1: Participatory appraisal method Phase Tool Main goal Understand key social, physical and ecological traits and threats Step 1: Transect Walk in the surrounding area. 1 Step 2: Historical Develop collective understandings on social-ecological change. Timeline Step 3: Seasonal Identify the seasonality of livelihoods, risks and security. Calendar 2 Determine perceived causality between direct and indirect Step 4: Problem Tree causes of insecurity. Identify community responses to different and Responses Tree causes. Step 5: Collective action Develop action plans around a limited number of clustered planning issues and identify requirements of external support. 3 Step 6: Method Evaluate the emergence of social learning throughout the evaluation appraisal. Phase 1 Phase 1 was conducted throughout the first and second days. The main goal was to jointly develop a shared vision of what's already known and understood regarding social-ecological hazards and drivers of vulnerability, their status and recent developments. The phase guided community members through the analysis of the social-ecological landscape in which the community is embedded, its drivers of change, along with challenges and opportunities posed by these changes. This recognition phase was meant to elucidate system dynamics in fragile and highly vulnerable settings. It began by conducting a Transect Walk with community leaders, to gain an understanding of key social, physical and ecological traits in the surrounding area. Transect Walk is a tool intended to make observations about the community, its history, available resources, livelihood strategies and people´s interconnection with territorial traits, along with natural and political boundaries. The tool was useful at this stage to look for evidence of past hazards and change, along with triggering a discussion around intra- and inter-communal relations, both conflictive and cooperative. A FGD was then conducted with community members by using the Historical Timeline as a facilitation tool. The Historical Timeline is designed to foster a collective reflection around social-ecological change as experienced since people's memories allow for, and to create meaning from these perceptions. The session 14 fostered a shared understanding of a changing social-ecological system and its recent developments. Emphasis was made on investigating how conflict-related trends interact with a surrounding territory that is increasingly impacted by climate change. As part of this initial phase, the team held unstructured interviews with village leaders to understand decision-making structures within the community and their relation to formal governance institutions. Phase 2 Phase 2 included the third day of assessment. Two FDGs were conducted to elaborate on a community- articulated vision of relevant climate security concepts, including vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and (in)security. This phase was designed with two goals in mind: 1) develop a more comprehensive view of the impacts of climate change on livelihoods within the community, and the multiple pathways through which climate impacts are related to conflictive or cooperative societal relations within and beyond the community; and 2) examine community level responses to risk management and draw lessons on their functioning and maintenance. The Seasonal Calendar tool was used to guide a discussion around livelihood strategies and how these are adjusted in relation to seasonal variability. The reflection also identified different expressions of risk emerging throughout the year, such as common periods of food insecurity, labour availability and migration, disease, natural resource scarcity, insecurity and conflict patterns, among others. Seasonal Calendars are facilitated to explore the seasonal variation of vulnerability, potentially overlying climatic, livelihood, health and conflict related risks in a place-based setting. The Problem Tree technique was then implemented while focusing on selected security-related issues. The facilitation tool guided a collective reflection over direct and structural drivers of conflict and insecurity. It also allowed to determine, and graphically represent, a simplified vision of correlational linkages between drivers, thereby supporting a conceptualisation of climate-related security risks, while situating this vision within the structural factors that sustain vulnerability and antagonistic relations. Finally, a Responses Tree diagram was developed as a way of identifying ongoing community responses to different drivers. Phase 3 Phase 3 involved focusing on selected key problems prioritised during the previous phases, to identify solutions towards building adaptive capacity in the face of climate-related security risks. Participants were divided in gendered-mixed working groups and asked to think of solutions to address one of the prioritised problems. Solutions were then elucidated through proposed actions for their implementation. These plans were developed through a previously defined framework format, which contains goals that the group wants to achieve, required activities, assigned responsibilities to different social actors, and resources required for implementation. Teams were encouraged to integrate in their analysis the previously identified structures of potential support and those that may impair community agency. Working groups then presented their plans to each other, hence providing an opportunity for reflection around plausible implementation barriers and synergistic strategies. To finalise the assessment, the group was asked to evaluate the method. In triggering a discussion, participants were asked, through a set of yes/no questions, whether their participation in the workshop impacted their capacity to understand the effects of climate change over the community, what needs to happen for their community to adapt to climate change, and 15 their own role in supporting the community in doing so. An open dialogue then allowed them to voice their perception about the method´s impact. 16