Uganda Brief 2018 - The African Seed Access Index Edward Mabaya Mainza Mugoya Emmanuel Mubangizi Chris Ibyisintabyo June 2018 Copyright © The African Seed Access Index Page 1 Uganda Brief 2018 – The African Seed Access Index INTRODUCTION A competitive seed sector is key to ensuring timely avail- ability of high quality seeds of improved, appropriate va- rieties at affordable prices to smallholder farmers in Uganda. This country brief summarizes the key findings of The African Seed Access Index (TASAI) study conducted to appraise the structure and economic performance of Uganda’s seed sector in 2017. With a focus on four grain and legume crops important to food security in Uganda — maize, beans, millet, and sorghum — the study evalu- ates the enabling environment for a vibrant formal seed sector. These four crops account for about 35% of arable land in Uganda (FAOSTAT, 2017). The study covers 20 in- dicators divided into the following categories: Research and Development, Industry Competitiveness, Seed Policy and Regulations, Institutional Support, and Service to Smallholder Farmers. Appendix 1 summarizes all 20 indi- cators and compares Uganda to 12 other countries where similar studies were conducted. TASAI seeks to encourage public policymakers and development agencies to create and maintain enabling environments that will accelerate the development of competitive formal seed systems serving smallholder farmers. Overview Like most other African countries, the seed industry in Uganda consists of two systems: the informal sector and the formal sector. This policy brief focuses almost exclu- sively on the formal seed sector. The informal sector broadly refers to the system where farmers produce, obtain, maintain, develop and distribute seed resources, from one growing season to the next (FAO, 1998). Because of limited exposure, low availability of varie- ties, inability to purchase seeds, limited access to agro-deal- ers, or other reasons, most smallholder farmers in Uganda still rely at least in part on informal seed systems. In cases where the farmer is unable to retain part of the harvest, or where a farmer decides to plant a different variety, seed is generally acquired from the local community, including mar- kets and farmers’ social networks. This is true particularly for crops other than maize. Standards in the informal seed sys- tems are not monitored or controlled by government poli- cies and regulations; rather, they are guided by indigenous knowledge and standards, and by social structures. The formal sector focuses on breeding and evaluating im- proved varieties and producing and selling seed of these va- rieties that is certified by the National Seed Certification Ser- vice (NSCS). NSCS is the government entity under the Minis- try of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) re- sponsible for regulating Uganda’s seed industry. As shown in Table 1, Uganda’s formal seed sector comprises many insti- tutions including government (e.g. NSCS, NARO, MAAIF, agro-dealers, seed companies, and county extension agents), private sector (MNCs and local seed companies), and development agents (NGOs and CBOs). The apex seed association, the Uganda Seed Trade Association (USTA) plays an important role in sharing information and advancing members’ interests. Table 1: Role of key players in Uganda’s formal seed sector ROLE KEY PLAYERS Research and breeding NARO, NaCRRI, NaSARRI, CGIAR, AATF Variety release & regulation NSCS, MAAIF, NSB Breeder and foundation seed production NARO, NaCRRI, NaSARRI; local seed companies, MNCs, AATF Seed production Seed companies, local seed businesses Processing and packaging Seed companies Education, training, extension Seed companies, extension agents, farmers’ organizations, NGOs, agro-dealers, USTA Distribution and sales Seed companies, rural agro-dealers, NGOs Key Acronyms: AATF – Africa Agricultural Technology Foundation, CIMMYT – International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, DCIC – Department of Crop Inspection and Certification, DUS – Distinctness, Uniformity, and Stability, ISTA – International Seed Testing Association, LSBs – Local Seed Businesses, MAAIF – Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, MNCs – Multinational Corporations, NAADS – National Agricultural Advisory Services, NaCRRI - National Crop Resources Research Institute, NARO – National Agricultural Research Organization, NaSARRI - National Semi-Arid Resources Research Institute, NGOs – Non-Governmental Organizations, NSCS – National Seed Certification Service, NSB – National Seed Board, OWC – Operation Wealth Creation, OPVs - Open Pollinated Varieties, QDS – Quality Declared Seed, UPHIA – Uganda Plant Health Inspectorate Agency, USTA – Uganda Seed Traders Association, VCU – Value for Cultivation and Use, VRC – Variety Release Committee. Copyright © The African Seed Access Index Page 2 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Number of active breeders For the four priority crops in Uganda – maize, beans, fin- ger millet1, and sorghum – there are 15 active breeders. Most of the breeders (7 of 15) focus on maize, while four breeders focus on beans, and two each on millet and sor- ghum. Several foreign-owned companies use the breed- ing capacity of their regional headquarters outside Uganda. Of the 15 breeders, two are from the private sec- tor while 13 are from the two National Agricultural Re- search Organization (NARO) institutes: the National Crop Resources Research Institute (NaCRRI) has nine breeders focused on maize and beans, while the National Semi-Arid Resources Research Institute (NaSARRI) has four breeders focused on sorghum and millet. NaCRRI has more breed- ers than NaSARRI in part because it has received technical and financial support from the Africa Agricultural Tech- nology Foundation (AATF), Alliance for a Green Revolu- tion in Afrca (AGRA)Pan-African Bean Research Alliance (PABRA), and CGIAR institutions, namely the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) under the Drought-Tolerant Maize for Africa project, and the In- ternational Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). On the other hand, NaSARRI lacks the financial means to main- tain a comprehensive breeding program. On average, seed companies’ rate their satisfaction with the number of active breeders as good (69%). The highest level is sat- isfaction is for beans (80%) and maize (72%), while the satisfaction with sorghum breeders is fair (55%). The low- est satisfaction is with millet breeders: 40%.2 Varieties released in the last three years Between 2015 and 2017, a total of 40 varieties were re- leased across the four crops. Of these, 26 were maize, five each were bean and millet, and four were sorghum varie- ties. Unsurprisingly, the number of varieties released cor- relates strongly with the number of active breeders. Fig- ure 1 shows the trend for variety releases (using three- year moving averages) for the four crops between 2000 and 2017. Variety releases for maize outnumber the com- bined variety releases for beans, millet, and sorghum. There was a notable increase in the number of maize va- riety releases from 2012. This was partly due to the entry 1 Herein referred to as millet 2 All scores reported in this brief are based on industry self-reporting of sat- isfaction ranging from 0% (completely dissatisfied) to 100% (completely sat- isfied). of foreign companies and the development and release of Water Efficient Maize for Africa varieties by AATF. By con- trast, there were no releases for millet between 2000 and 2016, and no sorghum releases between 2000 and 2011. One reason for the low number of sorghum releases is be- cause there is no hybrid sorghum breeding program in the country. Availability of basic seed Most seed companies source their foundation seed from the NARO institutes: NaCRRI for maze and bean seed and NaSARRI for sorghum and millet. All the millet and bean seed-producing companies source foundation seed from these institutions. Three of the 18 maize seed-producing companies and two of the 11 sorghum seed-producing companies are foreign-owned and source their founda- tion seed from their regional/continental breeding pro- grams. The main sources of maize foundation seed from outside Uganda are Kenya (for five companies), Tanzania (for one company), and Zimbabwe (for four companies), while one company sources sorghum foundation seed from India and another from Zimbabwe3. All bean and millet foundation seed is sourced from within Uganda. On average, seed companies rate the availability of basic seed for the four crops as good (62%). The companies are more satisfied with the availability of basic seed for maize (72%), and less satisfied with the availability for the other three crops - beans (59%), millet (50%), and sorghum (55%). This is logical, given the greater investment in maize breeding programs by national and international agricultural research organizations. 3 Note that these country sources also apply for basic seed sourced from CGIAR centers based outside Uganda. 0 2 4 6 8 10 Maize Beans Millet Sorghum Figure 1: Trend in variety releases between 2002-2017 (three-year moving average) Copyright © The African Seed Access Index Page 3 Number of varieties sold in 2017 In 2017, seed companies sold 68 varieties of the four crops. Of these, 41 were maize varieties, 13 were bean varieties, 6 were millet varieties and 8 were sorghum va- rieties. The most popular maize varieties were Longe4, Longe5, Longe5D, and MM3. Longe4 and Longe5 are open pollinated varieties (OPVs) that were released in 2000 and are popular for their early maturing and nutritional char- acteristics, respectively. Longe4 is also popular for its re- sistance to maize streak virus. MM3 is a derivative of Longe4. The most popular bean varieties in 2017 were K132 (re- leased in 1994) and NABE4 (released in 1999). These vari- eties have been left in the market as landraces and are classified as standard seed. The most popular millet vari- eties in 2017 were PESE1 and PESE2, released in 1989 and 1995 respectively, while the most popular sorghum vari- eties were Sekedo and Epuripuri (both released in 1995). These varieties are classified as standard seed and are sold primarily to relief agencies. Number of varieties dropped over the last 10 years Many of the seed companies – 50% of maize companies, 59% of bean companies, 50% of millet companies and 33% of sorghum companies - reported dropping varieties between 2008 and 2017. In total, companies reported dropping 25 varieties for the four crops – nine maize vari- eties, seven bean varieties, three millet varieties, and six sorghum varieties. Interestingly, some of the varieties dropped by some seed companies are still commercialized by others. Dropped varieties include SC407, Longe4, Longe5, Longe10H, YARA41, Victoria2, ZM652, and Ssalongo (for maize); NABE4, NABE5, NABE11, NABE17, K131, and K132 (for beans); PESE1, PESE2, and Seremi1 (for millet), and Sekedo, Epuripuri, Seso1, and Seredo (for sorghum). The reasons for dropping these varieties include the need for replacement with superior varieties, low tolerance to drought, high level of adulteration (especially with maize OPVs), lack of foundation seed (especially for bean varie- ties), degeneration of the variety (for the K132 bean vari- ety) and low yields. Average age of varieties sold in 2017 The average age of the varieties sold in 2017 was as fol- lows: 6 years for maize, 11 years for beans, 16 years for millet, and 12 years for sorghum. The youngest varieties for three of the four crops (maize, bean, and millet) are one-year old. Four sorghum varieties released in 2017 were not yet commercialized by the end of that year. The youngest sorghum variety on the market in 2017 was re- leased in 2011. The oldest varieties were 17 years for maize, 23 years for beans, 28 years for millet, and 22 years for sorghum. The ongoing sale of old varieties suggests a reluctance to switch to new varieties by some farmers. This applies to all four crops. There are 37 varieties of beans, millet, and sorghum released after 2002, yet the oldest varieties on the market were more than 20 years old. Varieties with climate-smart features To be classified as climate-smart, a crop variety must meet at least one of two criteria: early maturity and/or tolerance to extreme weather conditions such as drought, flooding, or frost. For maize, 8 of 26 varieties released be- tween 2015 and 2017 were climate-smart, with drought tolerance being the dominant trait (for 6 of the 8 varie- ties). Only three of the five released bean varieties were climate smart – all early-maturing. All three climate smart sorghum varieties (of the four released) were drought- tolerant. INDUSTRY COMPETITIVENESS Number of active seed companies In 2017, there were 34 registered seed companies in Uganda. Of these, 20 produced and marketed at least one of the four focus crops. Of the 20 companies that pro- duced certified seed for the four crops, 19 produced maize seed, 17 produced bean seed, six produced millet seed, and 12 produced sorghum seed. Five of the 20 seed companies are foreign-owned. On aggregate, the seed companies produced 21,959 MT of maize seed, 3,794 MT of bean seed, 19 Mt of millet seed, and 2,302 MT of sorghum seed in 2017. Total sales of maize seed in 2017, aggregated from individual com- pany sales, were 17,013 MT. This is a notable increase from the 9,500 MT of maize seed sold in 2015. Seed sales for the other crops were 2,957 MT (beans), 12 MT (millet), and 1,857 MT (sorghum). Copyright © The African Seed Access Index Page 4 Market share of top seed companies Market concentration is calculated in two ways. First, by calculating the sales of the top four companies as a per- centage of total industry output for each commodity. Us- ing this method, the volume weighted market share for the top four companies by crop was 69% for maize, 61% for beans, 100% for millet, and 72% for sorghum. Figure 2 illustrates the market shares. Market concentration was also analyzed using the Her- findal-Hershman Index (HHI). The HHI measures market concentration by squaring the market share of each firm competing in a market and then summing the resulting numbers. HHI can range from close to zero (perfect com- petition) to 10,000 (monopoly). HHI was calculated for each of the four crops. The HHI for three crops - maize (1,425), beans (1,214), and sorghum (1,703) - is good. Due to the low number of active companies producing millet seed, the HHI score for millet is extremely poor (5,139). The market shares of the top four companies and the HHI results both indicate that the seed market for three crops – maize, beans, and sorghum – is competitive, with many active seed companies, none of which is dominant. The millet seed market is less competitive due to the low number of active seed companies. Market share of government parastatal There is no active government parastatal involved en- gaged in the production and marketing of certified seed in Uganda. Length of import/export process for seed The time it takes to import/export seed is calculated as the number of days from of application for an import/ex- port permit, to the time when the consignment reaches the border point of entry/exit. NSCS only issues import and export permits to entities registered as seed mer- chants. Of the 20 seed companies, four (all foreign-owned) im- ported seed into Uganda in 2017. The main seed im- ported into Uganda in 2017 was maize (967 MT from Kenya and Zimbabwe) and sorghum (200 MT through Kenya). The main border point of entry was Malaba, on the Uganda-Kenya border. Seed companies reported that it took an average of 14.5 days to import seed into Uganda. Most of the time (8 days) was spent obtaining the relevant documentation including the import permit and phytosanitary certificate, and about 4 days was spent clearing the seed at the border point of entry. The main causes of delay were clearing of documents and cargo traffic at the border. Nevertheless, seed companies rate the import process as good (70%). Five of the 20 active seed companies exported seed in 2017. A total volume of 2,207 MT of seed was exported, equal to 10% of total sales in 2017. Companies exported 1,305 MT of maize seed (8% of total maize seed sales), 56 MT of beans (2% of total bean seed sales), 4 MT of millet seed (33% of total millet seed sales), and 842 MT of sor- ghum seed (45% of total sorghum seed sales). The main export destination was South Sudan (1,937 MT or 88% of total exports). Exports to South Sudan were mainly to emergency relief agencies. Other destinations were Bu- rundi (100 MT), Tanzania (80 MT), Democratic Republic of Congo (45 MT), and Kenya (45 MT). The main border points of exit were Nimule (to South Sudan), Malaba (to Kenya), Bunagana (to DRC) and Port Bell (to Tanzania). Seed companies reported that it took 15 days to export seed and rated the exportation process as good (60%). SEED POLICY AND REGULATIONS Length of variety release process The length of the variety release process is the duration of time from when the application for variety release is submitted to the Variety Release Committee (VRC), to when the variety is approved for released by NSCS. Prior to the release of a crop variety, the variety is evaluated for distinctness, uniformity, and stability (DUS) and value for cultivation and use (VCU). According to the seed reg- ulations, DUS tests should be carried out for at least two seasons, while VCU tests should be conducted in at least 68% 61% 100% 72% 32% 39% 28% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Maize Beans Millet Sorghum Market share (top four) Market share (others) Figure 2: Market Share (%) of Top Four Companies Copyright © The African Seed Access Index Page 5 four agro-ecological zones. There are normally two sit- tings of the VRC every year. According to seed companies and breeders, the average time for variety release is 28 months. The official cost for DUS tests is UGX 350,000 (or USD 100)4 per variety while VCU tests cost UGX 800,000 (USD 220) per variety. In addition, breeders pay UGX 100,000 (USD 30) to have a variety listed in the National Variety Catalogue. However, seed companies and breeders re- ported incurring higher costs of USD 1,200 to USD 5,000 during the variety release process. These costs include transport and living costs for staff that travel to different sites during the on-farm trials, site management, crop as- sessments, and evaluation. Similarly, research institutes reported paying USD 350 (UGX 1,225,000) for the DUS test, as opposed to the official rate of UGX 350,000. De- spite the high costs, seed companies rate the variety re- lease process as good (75%), while NSCS and NARO rated the process as excellent (80% and 90%, respectively). Status of seed policy framework Uganda’s national seed policy was most recently updated in 2016 but has yet to be passed by the Cabinet. Under the current institutional arrangement, NSCS is under the Department for Crop Inspection and Certification (DCIC). In addition, NSCS serves as the secretariat for the National Seed Board (NSB), which advises the Ministry on all seed- related issues. The policy proposes to transform the DCIC into a semi-autonomous agency called Uganda Plant Health and Inspectorate Agency (UPHIA). UPHIA will be responsible for all plant health services, seed regulatory services, and agricultural and plant related chemical reg- ulatory services (MAAIF, Uganda National Seed Policy - Draft 7, 2016). The Seeds and Plant Act of 2006 is the main law governing the seed industry. The law establishes the NSB and NSCS. The Seeds and Plant Regulations of 2017 were developed as implementing instruments for the Act. The Regulations provide details related to plant breeding, variety release, seed multiplication, seed conditioning, seed marketing, seed importation and exportation, and quality assurance of seeds and other planting materials. MAAIF has also de- veloped the National Seed Strategy (MAAIF, 2016) 4 Exchange rate: USD 1 = UGX 3,500 Uganda is a member of both the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the East Afri- can Community (EAC). Uganda’s seed regulations have been amended to conform to COMESA’s harmonized seed regulations, the goal of which is to facilitate the movement of certified seed within the region. However, none of the Ugandan seed companies have yet listed any varieties in the COMESA seed catalogue. MAAIF intends to apply for International Seed Testing Agency (ISTA) accreditation of the national seed labora- tory in 2018. Prior to submitting this application, MAAIF plans to increase staffing levels at the laboratory to meet ISTA requirements. Quality of seed regulations and enforcement Seed companies have a favorable opinion of the quality of the seed law and regulations in Uganda, rating them as good (60%). Companies are less satisfied with their en- forcement, which was rated as fair (48%). Seed compa- nies cited a need for the recruitment, training, and de- ployment of more qualified seed inspectors to monitor seed companies’ production and processing activities, to ensure seed quality throughout the value chain. Adequacy of seed inspectors Seed inspection is the mandate of NSCS. Unfortunately, NSCS has a significant shortage of inspectors, employing just seven in 2017. This shortage is due to the inadequate financial means at the institution’s disposal. In 2014, NSCS had a budget shortfall of 70% for staffing of inspectors (Naluwairo & Barungi, 2014). Seed companies rate their satisfaction with seed inspection services as fair (59%). In addition to the seven seed inspectors, MAAIF has trained phytosanitary inspectors who are stationed at the major border points. These inspectors handle both phytosanita- tion and seed imports. Several seed companies have supported a private initia- tive that aims to verify the seed quality at the production and processing stages. The initiative, called Ag-Verify, was initially financed under a USAID-funded project and now has a management team in place. Under this arrange- ment, Ag-Verify would provide two core services, namely: (i) training and deploying private seed inspectors and (ii) verifying the quality of seed produced by seed companies. For the latter, samples from the seed companies’ fields Copyright © The African Seed Access Index Page 6 are tested at an ISTA-accredited laboratory, managed by a private company called Chemiphar. These services are intended to complement the mandatory services of seed inspection and certification provided by NSCS. However, NSCS is yet to harmonize the proposed roles of Ag-Verify under the current arrangement of seed certification and inspection. As such, seed companies can opt to use the services of Ag-Verify at their own cost, and in comple- ment to NSCS services. Lack of an agreement on the work- ing model has led to questions about the viability of the model. Efforts to stamp out fake seed Seed companies reported 14 cases of fake seeds in 2017. This is likely to be an under-estimate as most cases go un- reported. Seed companies rate the government’s efforts to stamp out fake seed as fair (53%). According to the seed companies, the main sources of fake seed are seed companies, seed distributors and retailers (seed stock- ists). The problem of fake seed is partly fueled by the gov- ernment seed distribution program, called Operation Wealth Creation (OWC). This is due to the weak and un- predictable seed procurement arrangements, which do not have sufficient checks for seed quality and seed sources. The industry, led by the Uganda Seed Trade Association (USTA), has been conducting awareness on the problem of fake seed. Seed companies are encouraged to use tam- per-proof labels, provided by MAAIF, on their seed pack- ages. In addition, companies are encouraged to appoint trusted agents who should be forwarded to the Ministry for licensing. Use of smart subsidies Operation Wealth Creation (OWC) is a government initia- tive through which agricultural inputs are procured and distributed to farmers through local governments. OWC was officially launched in June 2014 as an intervention co- ordinated by the army, Uganda Peoples Defense Forces. OWC is being implemented with funding under the Na- tional Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) secretariat and its operation aligns with the new mandate of provid- ing agricultural inputs to farmers. NAADS is an agency un- der MAAIF. Seed companies that sell seed to NAADS are required to produce crop and factory inspection reports from NSCS, seed inventory reports, and evidence of tax clearance from Uganda Revenue Authority. In addition, NSCS advises NAADS on seed companies’ capacity, based on their production returns and inspection reports. Seed companies that meet the criteria are then invited to re- spond to tenders from NAADS. NAADS provides infor- mation on the required seed types and seed volumes for the different local governments. In 2017, nine seed companies sold maize seed, seven companies sold bean seed, and three companies sold sor- ghum seed to NAADS. On aggregate, seed companies sold 8,856 MT of maize seed (52% of overall maize seed sales), 1,359 MT of bean seed (46% of overall bean seed sales), and 180 MT of sorghum seed (10% of overall sorghum seed sales) to NAADS. These volumes indicate that NAADS was a major buyer of seed in 2017. Despite the high volumes of seed sales to NAADS and the explicit procurement procedures, seed companies are not satisfied with the procurement arrangements. Seed com- panies rate the transparency process in seed procure- ment as fair (59%); the clarity in requirements and proce- dures as fair (57%); predictability in the procurement pro- cess as poor (36%); and efficiency in government pay- ments as fair (48%). Seed companies stated that the seed procurement process was marred by numerous uncer- tainties and irregularities. As a result, several seed com- panies had opted out of selling to NAADS. INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT Availability of extension services According to the National Agricultural Extension Strategy, by 2014 the ratio of agricultural extension staff to farmers was estimated to be over 1:5,000 (MAAIF, 2014). The low number of government extension officers is partly due to the restructuring process under NAADS, the agency that used to manage agricultural extension. All extension staff who were recruited under NAADS have been discharged. The seed companies employ a total of 176 extension of- ficers, of whom 49 are male and 127 are female. Seed companies rate their satisfaction with extension services as fair (59%). Quality of national seed trade association Formed in 1999, the Uganda Seed Traders Association (USTA) is a member-based association for all seed mer- chants in Uganda. USTA has 27 members, of which 23 are seed companies and four are associate members. USTA Copyright © The African Seed Access Index Page 7 plays a key role in liaising between private seed compa- nies and the government on all seed industry matters. Figure 3 illustrates seed companies’ level of satisfaction with USTA’s performance in seven service areas. The companies rate their satisfaction with the overall quality of USTA as good (65%). USTA’s highest rating is in democ- racy and governance (71%), while the lowest ratings are in its ability to mobilize resources (51%) and facilitating business opportunities for members (59%). In all other ar- eas – effectiveness in advocacy, activity on important seed sector issues, managerial ability, and providing value to members - USTA’s members rate the association as good (64% to 66%). SERVICE TO SMALLHOLDER FARMERS Concentration of rural agro-dealer network The most recent census for agro-input dealers was con- ducted in 2009 and revealed that there about 2,064 agro- dealers in the country. However, the Uganda National Agro-Dealers Association estimates that the number of agro-input dealers ranges from 2,500 to 3,000. MAAIF es- timates that only 500 agro-dealers are trained and ac- credited. The Ministry intends to train more than 1,000 agro-dealers over the next two years. Using the lower limit of 2,500 agro-dealers, the ratio of agro-dealers to ag- ricultural households is 1:1,580. Seed companies rate their satisfaction with the rural agro-dealer network as good (61%). Availability of seed in small packages Across the four crops, 25% of seed sold in 2017 was sold in small packages of 2 kg or less, though there are notable differences by crop. All millet seed was sold in packages of 2 kg or less. For the other three crops, less than half of seed was sold in small packages. The percentage sold in small packages was 25% for maize seed, 9% for bean seed, and 48% for sorghum seed. Most of the maize seed (69%) and bean seed (72%) was sold in packages of greater than 2 kg but not more than 10 kg. Despite the low volumes sold in small packages, seed companies are satisfied with the availability of seed in small packages. The rating of satisfaction is good for beans (64%) and millet (72%) and excellent for maize (82%) and sorghum (80%), indicating that there is no need to make changes to the current seed package sizes for the four crops. Figure 4 shows a breakdown of the percentage of seed sold in the different package sizes for each crop. Figure 4. Percentage of seed sold in different package sizes Seed-to-grain price ratio Assuming stable prices at planting time, the seed-to-grain price ratio can reflect the extent to which a variety is im- proved, as reflected in the cost of production; and the costs of transacting in the seed market (Nagarajan & Smale, 2005). Four the four crops, the highest ratio is for hybrid maize (6:1). This is understandable due to the high cost of production and processing associated with hy- brids. The second highest ratio is for OPV maize (3:1). This supports the early findings that some of the OPV maize varieties are the most popular maize varieties due to characteristics such as early-maturity, resistance to maize streak virus, and nutritional benefits. The ratios for the other crops are 1.2:1 (bean), 1:1 (millet), and 1.2:1 (sor- ghum). From a seed company’s perspective, the low seed- to-grain price ratios for these three crops reflect compe- tition from farmer-recycled seed, as the prices are similar. Status of Quality Declared Seed (QDS) Quality Declared Seed (QDS) is a seed class in Uganda’s draft National Seed Policy of 2016. QDS requires mini- 64% 77% 65% 66% 71% 51% 59% 65% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Activity on important seed sector issues Effectiveness in advocacy Managerial ability Providing value to members Democracy in elections and decision… Ability to mobilize resources Facilitating opportunities in seed business Overall level of satisfaction 25% 9% 100% 48% 25% 69% 72% 42% 67% 5% 15% 10% 7% 1% 4% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Maize Beans Millet Sorghum Overall 2kg or less >2kg - 10kg >10kg - 25kg >25kg Figure 3: Members’ satisfaction with USTA Copyright © The African Seed Access Index Page 8 mum field inspection and certification standards for vari- ety, purity, and germination. To promote QDS, an organi- zation called Integrated Seed Sector Development has or- ganized and empowered seed producers, farmer organi- zations, and co-operatives into Local Seed Businesses (LSBs). Of the four focus crops, LSBs only produce beans. In 2017, a total of 107 LSBs were supported to grow 15 different varieties of bean seed. LSBs source foundation seed from NaCCRI and, in 2017, they produced the NABE variety se- ries, NARO series, ROBA1, and K132. Since their inception, LSBs have dropped two bean varieties (NABE11 and NABE20); the latter was dropped due to its physical like- ness to NABE 15, which is preferred in the market. In 2017, LSBs produced 237.1 MT of bean seed, with most production in season B. They sold 160.5 MT of bean seed, of which 96.3MT was sold in season A. No bean seed was sold to the government under the OWC program, mainly because QDS seed can only be sold in the area in which it is produced. QDS beans were sold in two different pack- age sizes: most (60% of volume) was sold in 25 kg pack- ages, while the remaining 40% was sold in small packages of 2kg or less. NSCS intends to develop regulations specif- ically for QDS. In addition, there is a need to amend the Seeds and Plant Act 2006 to include QDS as a seed class. CONCLUSION Uganda’s seed sector is at a critical stage in its growth. Several seed companies opine that local demand for cer- tified seed is growing, the evidence of which is an increase in aggregate seed sales of over 80% between 2015 and 2017. However, this growth is largely driven by the gov- ernment’s OWC initiative. In addition, the country is a net seed exporter for the four crops, though these exports are largely driven by relief agency purchases for South Sudan. In this context, the growth in both the local and export markets should be taken with caution, as the drivers are not sustainable in the long-term. Nevertheless, the pro- gress made towards harmonization of seed regulations across the COMESA region offers the potential to widen the scope for regional trade. Further, the development of the QDS market bodes well for the overall demand for certified seed as it increases farmers’ appreciation for quality seed. Beyond the market growth prospects, there are several notable improvements and opportunities in the seed sec- tor. The process to import and export seed is well-defined and efficient, though efforts can be made to reduce the time spent processing the import/export permits and phytosanitary certificates. The initiative to establish a pri- vate seed company, NARO Holdings, to specialize in the production of basic seed is very positive. If well managed, the company would respond to the seed companies’ chal- lenge of inadequate foundation seed. In line with the Seeds and Plant Regulations (MAAIF, 2010), and the Seeds and Plant Act 2006 (MAAIF, 2006) the Ministry should accredit qualified officials to conduct seed inspection and testing services., which would com- plement the existing NSCS seed inspection services. Effec- tive and transparent inspection services are critical for seed quality assurance along the entire value chain. This is timely given the goodwill among the private sector and the presence of a private company with the professional experience and facilities to run this service. This effort would need to be complemented by strengthening the NSCS via funding increases. Further, seed companies have expressed a high level of satisfaction with their association, USTA, on most fronts. USTA is cementing its position as a relevant platform through which the private sector can engage with the government. This strength needs to be further exploited to drive much-needed industry reforms, most notably in private seed inspection services and combatting counter- feit seed. Lastly, MAAIF should close the remaining gaps in the seed policy environment by passing the National Seed Policy, which should lead to the establishment of UPHIA. The Ministry should also draft the Regulations for the Plant Variety Protection Act and QDS. Despite these opportunities, Uganda’s seed industry faces several notable challenges. The first main challenge is the high incidence of fake seed. The government’s ef- forts to involve the national police force is a step in the right direction, though NSCS is significantly under-funded and the institution does not have sufficient resources to adequately ensure seed quality is maintained at the key stages of seed production, processing, and marketing. An- other challenge pertains to the seed subsidy program un- der OWC and managed by NAADS. Seed companies are not satisfied with the transparency, predictability, and Copyright © The African Seed Access Index Page 9 clarity in the seed procurement process. If not well-man- aged, the program may be abused. More importantly, the subsidy program creates a sense of artificial demand for seed, which is unsustainable in the long-run. REFERENCES MAAIF. (2006). The Seeds and Plant Act. Entebbe: MAAIF. MAAIF. (2010). Seeds and Plant Regulations. Entebbe: MAAIF. MAAIF. (2014). Uganda National Agricultural Extension Strategy. Entebbe: MAAIF. MAAIF. (2016). Uganda National Seed Policy - Draft 7. Entebbe: MAAIF. MAAIF. (2016). Uganda National Seed Strategy 2015/16 - 2020/21. Entebbe: MAAIF. Nagarajan, L., & Smale, M. (2005). Local Seed Systems and Village-Level Determinants in Marginal Environments of India. EPT Discussion Paper 135. Washington DC: IFPRI. Naluwairo, R., & Barungi, J. (2014). Ensuring the Sustainable Availability of Affordable Quality Seeds and Planting Materials in Ugand. A Review of the Uganda's Draft National Seed Policy. ACODE's Policy Research Paper Series No. 63, 2014. Kampala: ACODE. APPENDIX 1. For a comparison of TASAI Indicators across 13 coun- tries, please visit: http://tasai.org/wp-content/up- loads/TASAI-Appendix-CURRENT.pdf The work of TASAI has been supported by: For more information, contact: info@tasai.org www.tasai.org Follow us on Twitter: @TASAIndex Find us on Facebook: The African Seed Access Index