TRANSFORMATIVE ADAPTATION OPTIONS December 10, 2022 Colombo Abdelkader Ait El Mekki , Upali Amarasinghe, Rathinasamy Maria Saleth, Giriraj Amarnath, Youssef Brouziyne Authors Abdelkader Ait El Mekki 1, Upali Amarasinghe2, Rathinasamy Maria Saleth2, Giriraj Amarnath2, Youssef Brouziyne3 1 Department of Agricultural Economics, National School of Agriculture in Meknes (ENA), Morocco 2 International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Colombo, Sri Lanka 3 International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Egypt Suggested Citation Ait El Mekki A., Amarasinghe U., Saleth R.M., Amarnath G., Brouziyne Y. 2022. Polycentric Governance Model for Transformative Adaptation in Morocco. CGIAR Climate Resilience. This work is licensed under Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Acknowledgments This work was carried out with support from the CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience, ClimBeR. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund. 2 Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 3 2. AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................. 5 2.1 A PROPOSED CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 CROPPING SYSTEM ............................................................................................................................................ 6 2.3 LIVESTOCK ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 3. AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ................................................................................................. 9 3.1 THE 2020 RURAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY ........................................................................................................ 10 3.2 GREEN MOROCCO PLAN (2008 -2020) ............................................................................................................. 10 3.3 GENERATION GREEN STRATEGY GG (2020 – 2030) ............................................................................................. 12 4. WATER RESOURCES IN MOROCCO ............................................................................................................... 13 5. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES ............................................................................... 14 6. MAIN TRANSFORMATIVE ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE OPTIONS ............................................................. 16 6.1 THE 2020 RURAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY ........................................................................................................ 18 6.1.1 National Irrigation Water Saving program (PNEEI) ................................................................................... 18 6.1.2 National Irrigation Water Saving program (PNEEI) ................................................................................... 20 6.1.3 Public-Private Partnership in irrigation program ....................................................................................... 20 6.2 ADOPTION OF RESILIENT CROPPING SYSTEMS ........................................................................................................ 22 6.2.1 Crop pattern conversion ............................................................................................................................. 23 6.2.2 Promotion of land PPP ............................................................................................................................... 24 6.2.3 Adoption of resilient techniques (No-tillage) ............................................................................................. 25 6.3 IMPROVEMENT OF INVESTMENT CLIMATE ............................................................................................................. 26 6.3.1 Agricultural Development Fund instruments ............................................................................................. 27 6.3.2 Multi-risk insurance programs ................................................................................................................... 28 7. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 29 1. Introduction Morocco's climate is characterized by the variability of rainfall and the recurrent droughts, which have become a structural phenomenon affecting the country's production system. These extreme climate conditions contribute more or less to the degradation of water resources in natural ecosystems (watersheds, forests, pasture areas) and managed ecosystems (irrigated and rainfed agriculture). Other institutional factors relating to governance and land use also have an impact on the fragility of natural resources, particularly on water. State intervention in water and soil conservation dates back to the beginning of the last century with forestry and erosion prevention laws. During the 1970s and 1980s, integrated development implemented 3 to control upstream erosion and the protection of downstream hydro-agricultural structures. Given the shortcomings noted in those development projects, a vision more oriented toward the population has been adopted since the end of the 1990s. It is part of the new concept of sustainable development which considers both the protection of the environment and the economic and social development of the beneficiaries. Socio-economic impact studies of actions related to environmental management then become necessary for planning and evaluating investment programs financed by the State or in partnership with the private sector. The dependence on climatic conditions, the problems of recurrent drought, the diversity and complexity of land structures, and the overall low level of productivity directly affected the performance of the agricultural sector. This sector has gone through several development stages, which led it successively from the period of massive intervention during the 1960s and 1970s, structural adjustments during the 1980s, opening up to the world market from the mid-1970s to 1990, and finally, that of new agricultural development strategies, in particular the Green Morocco Plan (PMV) and Generation Green (GG) since 2008. Currently, the question of water resources that are necessary for agricultural development has become more important than ever. According to the "White Paper" recently published by the Water Group (2022)1, Morocco's water resources have experienced a remarkable decline in recent decades due to the drop in rainfall, the overexploitation of non-renewable water resources, the lack of coherence of development programs in relation to available water resources and a significant deficit in terms of governance. Global warming has increased the national average temperature of more than 1.5°C from 1982 to 2020 with higher records inside Morocco than in coastal areas. Similarly, rainfall recorded a drop of around 20% between 1960 and 2018, especially in winter, with 24% between December and February, compared to 14% over the entire rainy season (October to March). The territories in the South and Center of the country are more affected by these adverse climate conditions than the areas in the North-West. As water resource degradation considerations can negatively impact people's well-being, governments have designed and adopted policies aimed at supporting climate change adaptation and resilience. In this context, the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) is conducting reseaech on the multi-scale and polycentric governance can enhance the resilience from theadaptation options to climate change in Morocco through two research activities, namely: 1 Groupe Eau (2022), Livre Blanc sur Les Ressources en Eau au Maroc. Pour une Gestion Durable Assurant La Sécurité Hydrique pour le Pays. Document Préparé par un Groupe d’Experts, lauréats de l’Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II, Rabat. 4 • “Preparing an innovation inventory, mapping relevant institutions, and assessing the performance of a selected number of innovations, • Developing a conceptual and operational understanding of multiple polycentric governance (MPG) structure based on intrinsic functional connections among institutions, infrastructures, and governance using institutional economics definitions, terminologies, and stylized facts”. Both research activities are under Work package 4 (Multiscale governance for transformative adaptation) of the “Building Systemic Resilience Against Climate Variability and Extremes (ClimBer)” project in a sample of developing countries, including Morocco. This document corresponds to the first deliverable of this study that reports the main transformative adaptation options (TAO). It starts with an overview of the Moroccan agricultural sector (Section 1). Section 2 presents Moroccos’ agricultural development strategies implemented over the past 20 years.. Section 3 and Section 4, respectively report data on water resources and the impact of climate change on these resources. The last section describes the main innovative adaptation options for resilience to climate change in Morocco. 2. Agricultural sector overview Agriculture is considered one of the main pillars of the Moroccan economy. Its contributes to 13% of the GDP but grasp almost 40% of the workforce for employment. The total agricultural area is about 9 million hectares, of which nearly 85% are in the rainfed production system. Irrigated agriculture, practiced in the rest of the 15% or in about 1.6 million hectares of agricultural land, on average, contributes to 45% of the value added of the agricultural sector. Incentives for investment in agriculture are mainly grants and subsidies provided by the State under the Agricultural Development Fund (AFD). The main components of the State intervention are farm equipment mechanics, soil amelioration and hydro-agriculture management, animal production intensification, agricultural products valuation, export enhancement, and protection against climatic hazards including drought. 5 2.1 A proposed conceptual framework Land sizes of agriculture vary significantly in Morocco. According to the results of the last general census of agriculture undertaken in 2016, Moroccan agriculture is practiced by 1,629,139 farms covering a total Utilizable Agricultural Area (UAA) of nearly 9 million hectares. Land units less than 5 ha represent 72% of the total number of farms and occupy only about 24% of the total UAA. Those who occupy the largest part of the area (43.2%), with land sizes between 5 and 20 ha, account for 25% of the total number of farms. The large estates (> 50 ha) cumulate 15.9% of the UAA even if their number is limited to 13,133 farms, which means an average of 109.5 ha UAA per unit. This imbalance in the structure of agricultural land is a serious handicap to developing effective land tenure in Morocco (Ministry of Agriculture, 2020)2. Besides, land tenure shows that the property status is for 76% of the total UAA. The remaining area is allocated to the collective land (17.7%), Guich land ceded to the tribes who used to fight in the favor of Moroccan Sultans (2.8%), Habous wich is the land of religious brotherhoods (0.6%), and land that belongs to the state (3.1%). Except for the property status, the common factor in other statutes is that the beneficiaries are just profiting from the usufruct right. Therefore, those land statutes raise serious problems that limit the investment incentives to improve production systems within farms that are mostly of small acreage because of heritage considerations. 2.2 Cropping system During the cropping year of 2019-2020 for which the most recent official data are available, the climatic conditions were considered medium for most production areas. The average rainfall recorded a national roll of 265 mm against 357 mm in normal years (30 years average). The most important areas of rainfed agriculture, in the plains of Sais, Chaouia, Haouz, Doukkala, and Tadla, suffered a rainfall shortage ranging between -4% and -30% compared to the normal average. Irrigated areas were also affected due to a 19% drop in the quantities of surface water stored in the dams. The effect on the level of grain production - which is the best indicator of the performance of the agricultural sector - has been very negative (Ministry of Agriculture, 2022)3. Cereals are the major crops of the production system in Morocco. They cover nearly 55% of the total UAA, an area of about 5 million hectares, annually. Soft wheat remains the most widely grown cereal, with nearly 2 Ministère de l’Agriculture, de la Pêche Maritime, du Développement Rural et des Eaux et Forêts (2020), Atlas de l’Agriculture Marocaine. Troisième édition. Conseil Général du Développement Agricole. 3 Ministère de l’Agriculture, de la Pêche Maritime, du Développement Rural et des Eaux et Forêts (2022), Situation de l’Agriculture Marocaine No 15, Campagne 2019-2020. Conseil Général du développement Agricole. 6 42% of the cereal area, followed by barley (34%) and durum wheat (18%). The level of grain production is strongly linked to climatic conditions, especially rainfall. Yields per hectare are relatively low, with an average of 20 quintals for soft wheat, 19 quintals for durum wheat, and 13 quintals for barley. The average annual production of the three cereal s during the 2015–2020 period reached 4 million tons, 2.1 million tons, and 1.8 million tons, respectively. As for pulses, their average acreage reached 300,000 hectares in 2015-2020. Bean is ranked first with 44.7% followed by chickpea (24.0%), peas (12.3%), and lentils (12.0%). Total production is estimated at 0.22 million tons. It should be noted that the production of pulses has remained relatively stable over the considered period, with higher levels during the years of good rainfall. For sugar crops, the cultivation of sugar beet covers around 56,000 ha, total production reached 3.7 million tons with an average yield of 68 tons/ha. In 2019-20, the area was relatively limited, and the main reason was the bad weather that occurred early in the season. Indeed, the rainfall that fell in planting season, especially in the Tadla and Doukkala regions negative affected cropping acreage. As for sugar cane, its total area averaged 9,000 hectares annually. The average yield amounted to 68 t/ha, that allowed the harvest time close to 610,000 T. For oil crops, we have to distinguish between olive oil production and that of oilseeds. Since 2008 and thanks to the Morocco Green Plan incentives, the area covered by the olive tree has grown to reach 1,117,000 ha in 2020. This extension is mainly due to the intervention of the Agricultural Development Fund (ADF) which grants olive plants of different varieties at a rate of 80% of the purchase price and allows drip irrigation subsidies up to 100% rate. In 2020, the production was estimated at 1.7 million tons which allowed the processing of nearly 165,000 t of olive oil and 130,000 t of preserved olives. On the other hand, the achievement of sunflower area records depends on the weather and especially the spring rainfall. During the two past decades, it peaked at 118,000 ha in 2003, allowing the collection of 85,000 T harvest. Since then, the acreage has dropped to reach roughly 19,500 ha in 2020 mainly because of weather conditions. Average yields are generally low and rarely exceed 1.5 tons/ ha, which lead to an annual production of 30,000 tons. The average area reserved to vegetable crops is nearly 258,000 ha in 2015-2020. Potato, onion and tomato are the main species with respectively about 60,000 ha, 30,000 ha and 17,000 ha. Total vegetable production reached nearly 7.3 million tons in 2020. Nearly 76.5% of this production corresponds to the season crops while the rest is for early crops (20%) and for agro-industry crops (3.5%). 7 Seasonal crops have covered almost 220,000 ha. They concern a wide range of vegetable species dominated by potatoes with 25.7% of total production, followed by melon and watermelon (23.5%), onions (15.5%), carrot and turnip (7.7%), tomato (6%), and green beans (5%). With a total acreage of nearly 38,000 ha, early crops that are mostly grown in greenhouses are mainly represented by the tomato with 20% of the total area and 48% of the harvested production. Area and production of other export-oriented crops are increasing, namely the green beans, peppers and zucchini. Agro-industry crops are dominated by tomato and sweet pepper (Niora) with a production share of 88% and 11.7% respectively. The tree crops area covers nearly 1.75 million hectares or just over 18% of the total agricultural area. It has increased in average by nearly 20,000 ha each year since 2009. The olive tree is by far the most dominant species as it covers almost 62% of the area tree (1.1 million ha). The area occupied by the almond tree is second with 209,000 ha followed by that of citrus with nearly 130,000 ha. The viticulture sector covers nearly 40,000 hectares while the area occupied by the Rosaceae crops (other than almond) amounts to around 110,000 ha. The level of fruit production varies from year to year depending on weather conditions and from one species to another depending on technical conduct and sensitivity to the phenomenon of alternation. Obviously irrigated crops such as citrus, pome Rosaceae, plum and apricot highlight some regularity in production. Instead the olive, almond and vine crops that are mainly conducted in rainfed areas show varying levels of production and are more difficult to control by the farmer. For citrus fruits, total production is around 2 million T in average. The main production areas are in Souss Massa (30%), Gharb (20%), Berkane (17%), Tadla (13%) and Haouz (13%). The most important varieties are Clementine (43% of the total acreage), Maroc Late (20%) and Navels (18%). During the 2017-2020 period, production of Rosaceae fruit has reached nearly 1.4 million T. The different species share is 54% for apple, 20% for peaches and nectarines, almonds (8%) and apricots (8%). With regard to the palm date, the harvested tonnage amounted to 150,000 T. Morocco Green Plan incentives have contributed to increase the cultivation area out of oasis traditional areas leading to an annual supply of nearly 160,000 T each year. We also note that the improvement of the dates production is registered thanks to the efforts of the growers that have made great efforts in conducting this crop using drip irrigation and proper reasoning fertilization and phytosanitary treatments. Table 1: Cropped area (ha) Crop type 2000 2016 Change (%) Cereals Soft wheat- Durum wheat 8 Barley Pulses Moong Oil crops Sunflower Annual crops Sugar beet Tree crops Olives Oranges Apple 2.3 Livestock During 2015-2020 period, the red meat production totaled 540,000 T in year average, allowing a consumption amount of nearly 17 kg for every individual in Morocco. Beef takes an average of 44% against 30% and 5% respectively for sheep and goat meat. The rest is compound of offals and camel and equine meat. Poultry meat production registered a steady increase since the early 1990s because of the rapid development of the poultry industry in Morocco. In 2020, production reached 685,000 T which means nearly 19 kg/person. Poultry farming has also produced nearly 6.5 billion eggs. This quantity is relatively stagnant since 2018, probably because of saturation of the market demand. Milk production is estimated at nearly 2.5 billion liters produced mainly in irrigated areas of the country. It recorded a relative increase compared to 2008 (1.75 billion liters). This performance is largely due to efforts that have been made to improve milk production within the Dairy Plan launched by the Ministry of Agriculture in 1975 and later mostly within the Morocco Green Plan. 3. Agricultural development strategies Since the early 2000s, Morocco has undertaken reforms in its agricultural development strategy with a view to improving the operating efficiency of the various production sectors. The main objective of these reforms, sometimes initiated in collaboration with international partner institutions (World Bank, FAO, African Development Bank, EU, etc.) is to set up development programs aimed at reinforcing the partnership with the private sector, improvement of the investment climate and allocation of incentive measures to modernize the economic sectors. Three agricultural development strategies or plans have thus 9 been set up since 2000, namely the 2020 Rural Development Strategy (2000-2008), the Green Morocco Plan (2008-2020), and Generation Green (2022-2030). 3.1 The 2020 Rural Development Strategy Designed in 2000, the 2020 Rural Development Strategy aimed to again confirm the undeniable role of agriculture as a pillar of development in rural areas. It was supported by a panoply of integrated rural development (DRI) projects set up at the local level and where the participatory approach with the target population has become a very useful tool. The activities then included in the framework of the “National Initiative for Human Development”(INDH) launched in 2005 aim to strengthen all the programs initiated for rural development. The main objective was to alleviate poverty in rural areas by promoting income- generating activities, preserving natural resources, promoting employment, and creating added value for growth (Ait El Mekki, 2008)4. 3.2 Green Morocco Plan (2008 -2020) Launched in 2008, the Green Morocco Plan (GMP) aimed at applying a new agricultural development strategy which should enable the agricultural sector to most valorize its potential face to the new socio- economic challenges. To reach its goals, the GMP based its strategy on the following foundations (Hajjaji, 2009)5: • The role of agriculture as a key lever of economic growth for the next 10 to 15 years, • The use of aggregation as an organizational tool to encourage partnerships between value chains production upstream and commercial and industrial downstream, • The support for private investment with the objective of mobilizing an annual investment of 10 billion dirhams on selected agricultural projects, • The adoption of the contractual approach between economic operators in the agricultural sector, including public-private- partnership (PPP), 4 Ait El Mekki A. (2008), L’Agriculture, l’Agroalimentaire, la Pêche et le Développement Rural dans les Pays Méditerranéens : Tendances et Politiques. Cas du Maroc. Options Méditerranéennes. Série B : Etudes et Recherches No B61. 5 Hajjaji A. (2009), Le Maroc Vert : Stratégie et Mise en Œuvre. Agence de Développement Agricole. 10 • Safeguarding natural resources for sustainable agriculture, in particular through the preparation of programs with the Global Environment Fund (GEF) and the Hassan II Fund for economic and social development, and • The overhaul of the sectoral framework regarding land policy, water policy, tax policy, and the functioning of the domestic market. For its implementation, the GMP has initiated the following system of drastic changes: • Development of regional agricultural plans (PAR) and creation of regional agricultural directorates (DRA), • Restructuring and strengthening the chambers of agriculture, • Restructuring the central services of the Ministry of Agriculture with the almost total melting of the existing directorates and the creation of new directorates whose actions are better targeted, • Creation of the Food Safety Office, • Creation of the Agricultural Development Agency as a tool for, among others, applying agricultural investment policy; • Conclusion of program contracts with the profession to ensure better co-management of the main agricultural value chains. The GMP targeted the implementation of 1,500 projects for an investment envelope estimated at 147 billion dirhams over 10 years. All of these projects should benefit all farmers in the country through two pillars located at the center of its strategic vision. The first pillar concerns modern agriculture with high- added value practiced by farms located in irrigated areas and areas with favorable rainfall (560,000 farms). The second pillar concerns so-called solidarity agriculture located in mountainous, oasis, and unfavorable rainfall areas (840,000 farms). According to data collected from the Ministry of Agriculture, the implementation of the GMP had the main consequences of an increase in agricultural GDP of nearly 60%, from 79 billion dirhams in 2008 to 125 billion dirhams in 2018, i.e., an average annual growth rate of 7%, on the one hand, and a significant involvement of private investment in the agricultural sector, on the other hand (Ministry of Agriculture, 2020)6. The program contracts signed with the value chains organizations (20 in total, including 14 for the plant sectors, 5 for the animal sectors, and 1 for agro-industry) have led to the modernization of the main 6 Ministry of Agriculture, Sea Fisheries, Rural Development, Water and Forests (2020). Green Morocco Plan: Review and Impacts 2008 – 2018. 11 sectors and the improvement of production globally high rates, between 9% for vegetables and 92% for fruits (Table 2). Table 2: Evolution of the main MGP value chains production Product Initial data New data Evolution (%) Cereals (1000 ql) 53,000 (2000 – 08) 80,000 (2010 – 18) 50.9 Olive oil (T) 85,000 (2009) 150,000 (2016 – 18) 76.5 Sugar (T) 360,000 (2013) 555,000 (2018) 54.2 Citrus (1000 T) 1,300 (2008) 2,440 (2018) 87.7 Other fruits (1000 T) 884 (2009) 1,700 (2018) 92.3 Dates (T) 90,000 (2011) 114,000 (2013 – 17) 26.7 Vegetables (1000 T) 6,700 (2008 – 09) 7,300 (2015 – 17) 9.0 Red meat (T) 400,000 (2008) 590,000 (2017) 47.5 Poultry meat (T) 490,000 (2008) 720,000 (2018) 46.9 Eggs (Billion units) 3.7 (2008) 6.6 (2018) 78.4 Milk (Billion liter) 1.8 (2008) 2.55 (2017) 41.7 Source : Ministry of Agriculture (2020) Improved productivity and production have resulted in higher levels of self-sufficiency in key commodities. Indeed, according to the Ministry of Agriculture data, these levels currently reach almost 100% for fruit and vegetables, red meat, poultry meat and milk, 65% for cereals and 47% for sugar. In addition, the MGP also enabled a sharp increase in agricultural exports (240%). Among the sectors that have recorded high levels of export development are berries (1,800%) and tomatoes (300%). 3.3 Generation Green Strategy GG (2020 – 2030) This new strategy is based on two foundations centered on the human element, on the one hand, and the continuation of the dynamics of agricultural development in continuity with the PMV, on the other hand (Ministry of Agriculture, 2020)7. The first foundation aims to develop new generations of the agricultural middle class in rural areas, young entrepreneurs, and professional organizations in the agricultural sector. The second foundation aims to strengthen value chains and the development of agricultural sectors, the improvement of distribution circuits for agricultural products, as well as the development of sustainable and resilient agriculture, in particular through the implementation of the national program of drinking and irrigation water supply (2020-2027). Thus, the role of this new strategy in terms of food security is called 7 Ministère de l’Agriculture, de la Pêche Maritime, du Développement Rural et des Eaux et Forêts (2020). Nouvelle Stratégie du Secteur Agricole. 12 upon to consolidate the achievements of the MGP and respond to consumer’s demand which is becoming more and more diversified, in particular with increased consumption of fruit and vegetables and products rich in proteins (meat, fish, eggs, dairy products). For MGP and GG, we hereby will address the main programs that have been implemented in the agricultural sector with particular concern in the adaptation and resilience towards the climate change impact in Morocco. 4. Water resources in Morocco Access to water resources in Morocco is marked by strong annual irregularity, with episodes of drought. The annual amount of precipitation is estimated on average at 150 billion cubic meters, varying from 50 to 400 billion m3 per year, of which only 29 billion m3 can potentially be mobilized in surface water (20.5 billion m3) and groundwater (8.5 billion m3). In an average year, the quantity that can be mobilized is around 22 billion m3, including 18 billion m3 in surface water and 4 billion m3 in groundwater. Surface waters are characterized by significant variability due to their dependence on rainfall, geographical distribution (the importance of flows decreases from North to South), and very irregular hydrological regimes on a seasonal and annual scale. Groundwater is an important part of Morocco's water resources. On the national territory, there are 130 aquifers, including 32 deep aquifers (depths varying from 200 to more than 1000 m), with access difficulties and a fairly high cost of mobilization and exploitation, but they are rich and more durable. The rest of the water tables are superficial (water tables) and are accessible but more vulnerable to pollution and drought. Currently, groundwater abstractions are around 4 billion m3, which means that almost all known renewable groundwater is fully exploited (Ministry of Equipment and Water, 2022)8. Since political independence, Morocco has opted for policies that aim at reducing vulnerability to climatic hazards and drought by storing water from excessive seasons and years. Launched in 1967 by the late His Majesty King Hassan II, "the policy of dams", began with the construction of dams projecting irrigation of one million hectares in 2000, equipment of the perimeters with large hydraulic networks, and supervision of agricultural activities in these areas. With a massive commitment from the State in terms of public investment, this policy aimed more particularly at meeting the needs for irrigation water, drinking water, and industrial water by mitigating the effects of droughts through the establishment a large storage capacity in dam reservoirs. 8 Ministère de l’Equipement et de l’Eau (2022) at http://81.192.10.228/ressources-en-eau/chiffre-de-leau/ 13 Currently, Morocco has 149 large dams with a total capacity of more than 19 billion m3, 16 large dams under construction, 136 small dams in operation, 16 diversion and water transfer structures, thousands of wells and water points, 9 seawater desalination stations and 158 wastewater treatment stations (Ministry of Equipment and Water, 2022)9 . 5. Impact of climate change on water resources According to Balaghi et al (2011)10, the average temperature could increase in Morocco from 1.1 to 1.6°C by 2030, from 2.3 to 2.9°C in 2050 and from 3.2 to 4.1°C in 2080. At the country level, precipitation could decrease by 14% in 2030, by 13 to 30% in 2050, and by 21 to 36% in 2080. Yields of the main crops undergo very significant variations due to the high variability of rainfall and a high frequency of droughts. Indeed, studies on the impact of climate change on Moroccan agriculture carried out by the FAO, the National Institute for Agronomic Research (INRA) and the National Meteorological Department (DMN), predict a significant productivity reduction of main rainfed crops in semi-arid areas. Harbouze et al (2019)11, also report that most forecasts show that over the next few decades, the country will gradually show signs of increasing aridity due to rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall. The impact on water resources would be very significant since the World Resources Institute (WRI) places Morocco among the “extremely risky” countries for water stress (20th out of 167 countries). Similarly, Sadiki (2017)12, then Delegate of Morocco and Vice-President of the International Center for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies (CIHEAM) and current Minister of Agriculture, Maritime Fisheries, Rural Development and Water and Forests, indicates that due to climatic constraints, in particular the scarcity of water resources which has become structural in the Mediterranean, "projections on water stress in the riparian countries are unfavourable, with estimates which predict a contraction in GDP of 6% by 2050 alone due to water scarcity. Water insecurity, a threshold which concerns countries whose water availability per year and per inhabitant is less than 1700 m³, is already affecting 10 Mediterranean States 9 Ministère de l’Equipement et de l’Eau (2022). M. Baraka : La gestion intégrée de l’eau, de l’énergie et de l’agriculture permettra de réaliser le développement durable. http://81.192.10.228/m-baraka-la-gestion-integree-de- leau-de-lenergie-et-de-lagriculture-permettra-de-realiser-le-developpement-durable/ (27/06/2022) 10 Balaghi R., Jlibene M., Kamil H. et Benaouda H. (2011). Projet d’Intégration du Changement Climatique dans la mise en oeuvre du Plan Maroc Vert. Ministère de l'Agriculture et de la Pêche Maritime. Agence pour le Développement Agricole (PICCPMV). 11 Harbouze R., J.-P. Pellissier, J.-P. Rolland & W. Khechimi (2019), Rapport de synthèse sur l’agriculture au Maroc. Projet d’Appui à l’Initiative ENPARD Méditerranée. Rapport de recherche- CIHEAM-IAMM-UE. HAL- 02137637v2. 12 Sadiki M. (2017). La Rareté de l’Eau : Défis et Opportunités : Cas du Secteur Agricole au Maroc. Séminaire de Haut-Niveau, « Rareté de l’eau : Défis et Opportunités » Rome, Italie, 17 Novembre 2017. 14 (Libya, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Malta, Palestine, Syria). Nearly 180 million inhabitants would thus be ‘water poor’ in the region”. In a recent statement in August 2022, the Minister affirmed that the problem of climate change is one of the most important challenges facing Morocco with negative effects felt in recent years on water resources (Finance Hebdo, 2022)13. William (2022)14, reports that in another statement, the Government Chief estimates that the average quantity of water per inhabitant could decrease considerably from the current 620 m3 to 560 m3 in 2030 after being reduced from 2560 m3 registered in the sixties. Thus, given its dependence on climatic conditions, in particular the amount and distribution of rainfall, the agricultural sector would suffer the negative effects of the recurrent droughts observed in recent years. These effects should manifest in different forms, such as the reduction in crop productivity and supply, the reduction in cultivated areas in rainfed areas and the displacement of production areas for certain crops such as fruit growing. On the socio-economic level, the effects of water stress due to climate change could worsen the country's food security situation, increase prices along value chains, reduce agricultural employment, exacerbate poverty in rural areas and encourage rural exodus. These effects began to be observed after the drought that raged during the 2021-2022 agricultural campaign. Indeed, this year recorded a cumulative rainfall of 199 mm in May 2022, down 44% compared to the 30-year average (355 mm) and a drop of 34% compared to the previous campaign ( 303 mm) on the same date (Ministry of Agriculture, 2022)15. This campaign was also marked by poor temporal distribution of rainfall. The very low level of rainfall in several regions of Morocco during the months of January and February 2022 led to a more or less significant drop in yields depending on the region. Cereal production for the 2021- 2022 agricultural campaign was 34 million quintals on 3.6 million hectares, a decrease of 67% compared to 2020-2021 which recorded a total production of 103.2 Million quintals over 4.35 million hectares. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, this drop in performance of cereal crops should contribute to a 14% drop in agricultural value added and a drop of 1.8 points in the country's GDP. 13 Finances News Hebdo (2022), Sadiki: «Le développement de l’aval des filières agricoles demeure une priorité de Generation Green». 19/08/2022. https://fnh.ma/article/actualite-economique/sadiki-le-developpement-de-l-aval-des- filieres-agricoles-demeure-une-priorite-de-generation-green 14 William D. (2022), Ressources hydriques : L’eau ne coule plus sous les ponts. La Quotidienne vendredi 16/12/2022. https://laquotidienne.ma/article/economie/ressources-hydriques-l-eau-ne-coule-plus-sous-les-ponts. 15 Ministère de l’Agriculture, de la Pêche Maritime, du Développement Rural et des Eaux et Forêts (2022). Campagne céréalière 2021-2022. https://www.agriculture.gov.ma/fr/actualites/campagne-cerealiere-20212022-un-bilan- definitif-de-la-recolte-de-34-millions-de-quintaux 15 The specter of drought hangs over the 2022-2023 agricultural campaign due to the delay in rainfall with an estimated deficit of 30% in November 2022. Jaidani (2022)16 reports that, given these unfavorable conditions, following the drought of last year, the Government Chief acknowledged the difficulties in supplying the market with certain products such as milk and meat and affirmed that “Morocco could start importing certain meats to compensate for the drop in local production. As for milk, it is planned to help producers to increase yield despite water stress and the chronic situation of dams”. It should be noted that for these two products, the prices of inputs used by breeders in livestock feed (barley, corn, soybeans, wheat bran, straw, etc.) recorded an increase that exceeded 50% for the most part. In addition, the prices of imported inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides, have also increased on the world market, which has had negative repercussions on supply chains with adverse consequences on crops yields (Forget & Samson, 2022)17. On the other hand, due to forecasts of a decline in the production of olive trees, the main tree crop in Morocco, the prices of olives and olive oil have recorded a considerable increase which is around 80 to 100% for both products, going respectively on average from 5–6 dirhams to 9–11 dirhams/kg and from 40– 60 dirhams to 80–100 dirhams a liter. 6. Main transformative adaptation and resilience options Since the adoption of the Green Morocco Plan, the Ministry of Agriculture has embarked on a strategy of rationalization and recovery of irrigation water by adopting a proactive policy of generalization of water- saving irrigation techniques. Adapting to the water deficit and mitigating the effects of recurrent droughts have become priorities for the Ministry within the framework of the agricultural strategies initiated in 2008 for objectives to be achieved in 2030 (Green Morocco Plan 2008-2020, Generation Green 2020-2030). To deal with the problem of climate change and the scarcity of water resources with a view to improving the resilience of the agricultural sector to drought and ensuring sustainable agriculture, the adaptation options adopted within the framework of these two strategies are (FNH, 2022)18: 16 Jaidani C. (2022). Campagne agricole: face à une sécheresse persistante. Faut-il craindre le pire ? Finance News Hebdo (13/11/2022). https://fnh.ma/article/alaune/campagne-agricole-face-a-une-secheresse-persistante-faut-il- craindre-le-pire 17 Forget E. & J.M Samson (2022). Post-pandémie, Stress hydrique et Transition Ecologique : Quelle Transition Agricole pour le Maroc ? ID3 Policy Paper, Diana Holding. 18 Finances News Hebdo (2022), Sadiki: «Le développement de l’aval des filières agricoles demeure une priorité de Generation Green». 19/08/2022. https://fnh.ma/article/actualite-economique/sadiki-le-developpement-de-l-aval-des- filieres-agricoles-demeure-une-priorite-de-generation-green 16 1. Adoption of i) the National Irrigation Water Saving Program (PNEEI), which has so far made it possible to equip nearly 750,000 ha with drip irrigation, ii) the Irrigation Extension Program (PEI) to extend the irrigation downstream of dams and iii) Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects, in particular seawater desalination projects. These programs have made it possible to save and recover the equivalent of more than 2 billion m3 of irrigation water per year. Their pursuit within the framework of Generation Green will have to be aligned with the objectives of the "National Program for the Supply of Drinking Water and Irrigation Water 2020-2027" with an extension to nearly 510,000 additional ha for the benefit of 160,000 farmers to an objective of doubling water efficiency, 2. Adoption of programs for the restoration and rehabilitation of small and medium hydraulic perimeters (PMH) in all the agro-ecological zones of Morocco, in particular the mountain zones and the oases, 3. Adoption and continuation of the multi-risk climate insurance program to cover the production of cereals, legumes, oilseeds and fruit trees against the adverse effects of climate change (drought, floods, hail). This program has made it possible to cover more than one million hectares per year of cereals, legumes and oilseeds against climatic risks, 4. Reconversion of crops vulnerable to drought such as cereals into crops with high adaptability to the lack of water resources, such as olive trees, palm trees, argan trees, almond trees, fig trees, carob trees, caper trees…; 5. Development and cultivation of genetically improved plant varieties to cope with drought and the scarcity of water resources, particularly for cereals and legumes; 6. Construction of maps that depict the qualifications of agricultural land, soil fertility, conservation and development of plant genetic resources, management and conservation of water and soil...; 7. Supporting resilient practices to water deficit, especially supplemental irrigation and soil conservation techniques, including direct seeding (No tillage); 8. Granting of incentives to farmers within the framework of the Agricultural Development Fund in order to facilitate access to technologies for adaptation to climate change. We underline that the investment budget granted annually to the Department of Agriculture takes into consideration climate change and its effects on the agricultural sector in general and water resources in particular. In 2020, this budget reached nearly 24.4 billion Dirhams with an increase of more than 14% 17 compared to the previous year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (2022)19, this increase aims to consolidate the sustainability of the agricultural development strategy by strengthening the adaptation and resilience of agriculture to climate change, in particular through the use of agricultural techniques, water- saving irrigation, the use of non-conventional water and the use of renewable energies. By referring to the problem of scarcity of water resources in Morocco, a key issue for IWMI, on the one hand, and the efforts undertaken by the administration to mitigate the effects of this problem on the agricultural sector, on the other hand, we focus on three options for adaptation and resilience to climate change, namely, i) Adoption of adaptive programs for the efficient management of irrigation water, ii) the encouragement of more resilient cropping systems and iii) improving the investment climate. 6.1 The 2020 Rural Development Strategy These programs include the national irrigation water saving program (PNEEI), the irrigation extension program (PEI) and the public-private partnership in irrigation (PPP). 6.1.1 National Irrigation Water Saving program (PNEEI) The PNEEI was developed in July 2007 under the "Water Sector Development Policy Loan (PPD-Eau)" from the World Bank to rationalize the use and development of water resources (Ministry of Agriculture, 2007)20. This program consists of the massive conversion of surface and sprinkler irrigation systems to the drip irrigation system in large hydraulic areas (395,090 ha with a conversion rate ranging from 4% for Ouarzazate to 81% for Tadla) and in private irrigation areas (160,000 ha corresponding to 50% of the area irrigated by the gravity system in private irrigation areas). The PNEEI is divided into five main components, namely: • Collective reconversion of 217,940 ha to large hydraulics, including the upgrading of irrigation networks and their modernization to facilitate the conversion to water-saving irrigation techniques (low-pressure networks, densification of pressurized networks, development of ponds, etc.), • Individual reconversion over 337,150 ha, including 177,150 ha in large hydraulic perimeters and 160,000 in private irrigation areas, 19Ministère de l’Agriculture, de la Pêche Maritime, du Développement Rural et de la Pêche Maritime (2022). Situation de l’Agriculture Marocaine No 15. Campagne 2019 – 2020. Conseil Général du Développement Agricole. 20 Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Pêche Maritime (2007), Plan d’Action 2008-2012 du Domaine du Génie Rural, Secteur d’Irrigation, Secteur des Aménagements Fonciers des Zones Bour. Administration du Génie Rural, 40p. 18 • Agricultural development, in particular the improvement of technical practices at agricultural and value chains downstream steps for better water use (revision of cropping patterns, partnership with agro-industry for the development of new value chains, cultivation contract, labeling, local products, etc.), • Strengthening technical support through the development of local advice on the design of localized irrigation systems (drip irrigation) and support for improving productivity, and • Accompanying measures. The expected main effects of the PNEEI have been (Ministry of Agriculture, 2007)21: • Record water savings of 20% to 50% and increase crop yields by 10% to 100%, • Reduce the cost of the cubic meter of water saved between 34% and 100% of the cost necessary for the development of new water resources, • Increase the income of farmers, which will lead to an improvement in their living conditions, • Promote domestic agricultural production and increase its additional added value by 2.5 billion dirhams per year, • Rebalance the food trade balance through a drop in food imports, • Protect water resources and the environment (control of fertilizer leaching, reduction of overexploitation of groundwater, etc.), and • Create employment during implementation works and after program completion. With the completion of this program, the area equipped with localized irrigation should reach nearly 700,000 ha, or 50% of the area equipped for irrigation. Its overall cost is estimated at 37 billion Dirhams, including both the State's share (80% of the total) and that of the farmers (20%). Remarkable progress has been made within the framework of this program. In particular, more than 750,000 ha of land equipped with drip irrigation, i.e. more than 45% of irrigated areas at the national level against less than 10% only in 2008 (Finance News , 2022)22. It is supported by a vast project to modernize irrigation infrastructure in irrigated areas, facilitate the conversion of farms to drip irrigation and, consequently, improve the efficiency of networks and irrigation water. 21 Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Pêche Maritime (2007), Plan d’Action 2008-2012 du Domaine du Génie Rural, Secteur d’Irrigation, Secteur des Aménagements Fonciers des Zones Bour. Administration du Génie Rural, 40p. 22 Finances News Hebdo (2022), Sadiki: «Le développement de l’aval des filières agricoles demeure une priorité de Generation Green». 19/08/2022. https://fnh.ma/article/actualite-economique/sadiki-le-developpement-de-l-aval-des- filieres-agricoles-demeure-une-priorite-de-generation-green 19 6.1.2 National Irrigation Water Saving program (PNEEI) This program aims to create new perimeters and improve the irrigation system of existing perimeters over an area initially planned for 160,000 ha by 2020. Its main objective is to reduce the gap between hydro- agricultural developments and the capacity of existing dams or dams under construction to remedy the undervaluation of nearly 1.2 billion m3 of water mobilized by dams intended for irrigation (Ministry of Agriculture, 2022)23.In 2020, the achievements completed under this program cover an area of 33,460 ha while the development in progress concerns an area of 48,850 ha (Saiss, Kaddoussa, Dar Khrofa), i.e. 82,310 ha in total (Ministry of Agriculture, 2022)24 . The overall cost of the PEI program is estimated at approximately 21.5 billion Dirhams. 6.1.3 Public-Private Partnership in irrigation program PPP in irrigation is an innovative instrument for financing and managing projects designed to improve the technical, economic and financial conditions of the irrigation water service. Through this program, the Ministry of Agriculture, aims to preserve underground water by using non-conventional sources of water through various projects, including irrigation safeguard projects and seawater desalination projects (Ministry of Agriculture, 2020)25. As a structuring program involving the public sector and private operators, including agricultural producers, the PPP has the following objectives (Ouhsaine & Chati, 2015)26: • Ensure the sustainability and performance of public irrigation schemes at the service of farmers and users, • Improve the hydraulic and energy efficiency of projects, • Optimize the construction and maintenance of irrigation networks, • Reduce state expenditure in the construction and maintenance of irrigation infrastructure. 23 https://www.agriculture.gov.ma/fr/programme/eau-et-irrigation 24 Ministère de l’Agriculture, de la Pêche Maritime, du Développement Rural et des Eaux et Forêts (2022), Situation de l’Agriculture Marocaine No 15, 2019-2020. Conseil Général du Développement Agricole 25 Ministry of Agriculture, Sea Fisheries, Rural Development, Water and Forests (2020). Green Morocco Plan: Review and Impacts 2008 – 2018. 26 Ouhsaine M. & M. T. Chati (2015), Partenariat Public-Privé en Irrigation Au Maroc: Approche stratégique et Programme. Global Development Network’s 16th Annual Global Development Conference, June 11-13, 2015, Casablanca. 20 As part of this program, some projects have been set up or are being implemented with the private sector to improve the efficiency of water resources, which are becoming increasingly scarce. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (2022)27, these projects covered a total area of nearly 68,000 ha, including 13,000 ha already equipped (El Guerdane and Azemmour), 20,000 ha in progress (Chtouka and Dakhla) and 35,000 ha under study (Kaddoussa and Gharb). The total investment committed in the four concluded projects of El Guerdane, Chtouka, Azemmour and Dakhla amounts to nearly 7.8 billion dirhams with a contribution from private partners (private business and farmers) of around 3 billion dirhams, i.e. nearly 38.5% of the total amount. The El Guerdane irrigation project (Souss – Massa Region) was commissioned in 2009, the day after the launch of the Green Morocco Plan. It makes it possible to irrigate an area of 10,000 ha of citrus fruits for the benefit of 600 farmers by transferring water from the Aoulouz-Mokhtar Soussi dam complex on the Oued Souss. While ensuring a better quality of service provided to nearly 600 farmers, this project has made it possible to protect this citrus area threatened with the drying up of groundwater resources due to excessive pumping. It has also allowed increasing citrus production by 22% and preserving nearly 11,000 jobs in the El Guerdane area. The Azemmour - Bir Jdid coastal zone irrigation project (Casablanca - Settat Region) aims to safeguard an area of 3,200 ha of early vegetables led by 600 small producers in this zone against the problems of the drying up of groundwater resources. The irrigation network put into service during the 2020-2021 agricultural campaign is based on surface water replenishment from Oued Oum Er Rbiâ. In addition to safeguarding farms against the scarcity of underground water resources, this project will contribute to the diversification of crops and the increase in their yields, the control of the saline wedge advance and the improvement of the small producers incomes. The seawater desalination project for the irrigation of Chtouka area (Souss – Massa region) is a pioneer in the field of exploitation of unconventional water resources in Morocco. It aims to secure the irrigation of an area of 15,000 ha mainly of early vegetables grown in greenhouses by using water produced by a desalination unit which will also supply the population of the Agadir agglomeration in potable water. The objective is to partly replace groundwater withdrawals which have recorded an alarming deterioration in recent years in an area of agricultural production essentially oriented towards export. The expected effects of the project in terms of foreign exchange earnings and job creation are considerable. For an overall 27 Ministry of Agriculture (2022), https://www.agriculture.gov.ma/fr/investissement/partenariat 21 investment of 4.4 billion dirhams (irrigation and drinking water), the station was commissioned in January 2022. The seawater desalination project for irrigation in Dakhla (Dakhla Region – Oued Eddahab) is an innovative project based on the Water-Energy-Food nexus. Launched in 2019, it is also the first project to be carried out within the new institutional framework introduced by Law 86-12 on public-private partnership contracts. Based on the use of wind energy for the desalination of seawater in a desert area, this project aims to create an irrigated area of 5,000 hectares, in particular for the production of early vegetables for export. With an overall investment estimated at approximately 2 billion dirhams, 25% of which will be borne by private investment partners, the project could generate an annual added value of 500 million dirhams with the creation of nearly 10,000 permanent jobs. The downstream development project of the Kaddoussa dam on Oued Guir (Draa – Tafilalet Region), whose first phase of the feasibility study was completed in 2019, aims to strengthen local water resources to irrigate an area of 5000 ha located in the perimeter of Boudnib. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (2022)28, this hydro-agricultural development project was designed to consolidate water rights in order to promote the existing traditional oases over nearly 1,000 ha and support private promoters to ensure the development of the date palm over an area of nearly 4,000 ha through an allocation of irrigation water from the Kaddoussa dam. Irrigation extension project in the Gharb perimeter (Rabat – Salé – Kénitra Region) is a hydro-agricultural development project which will be implemented within the framework of the National Program for the Supply of Drinking Water and Irrigation 2020-2027. The feasibility study for this major project is being finalized to ensure the irrigation of an area of 30,000 ha using surface water from the Al Wahda dam. For all farmers benefiting from these projects, the cropping system is essentially based on the drip irrigation. 6.2 Adoption of resilient cropping systems To strengthen the resilience of agricultural production face to the drought effects which have become recurrent over the past decade, three adaptive options have been encouraged by the Ministry of Agriculture, namely the reduction of cereal areas (to be compensated by the increase in productivity of the main cereals) in favor of the extension of tree crops, the promotion of investment within the framework of the land public-private partnership and the adoption of resilient production techniques. 28 Ministère de l’Agriculture, de la Pêche Maritime, du Développement Rural et des Eaux et Forêts (2022), Situation de l’Agriculture Marocaine No 15, 2019-2020. Conseil Général du Développement Agricole. 22 6.2.1 Crop pattern conversion According to Badraoui and Balaghi (2012)29, studies regarding the impact of the climate change on Moroccan agriculture carried out by the FAO, the National Institute for Agronomic Research (INRA) and the National Meteorological Department (DMN), predict a decrease in the productivity of the main rainfed crops in semi-arid areas. They also claim that climate change will have negative consequences for Moroccan agriculture, including: • Fall in agricultural productivity, especially for rainfed crops and those for which the technological progress achieved is low, such as barley, durum wheat, soft wheat and food legumes, • Displacement of the cultivation area of certain water-demanding species such as corn, sunflower and broad bean, or that will be affected by the rise in temperatures, in particular fruit tree species with a great need for cold, • Loss of soil fertility due to the decline in organic matter and the water and wind erosion that affect them, • Decline in irrigation water availability. To control the effects of climate change while ensuring a sustainable improvement in farmers' incomes, the Green Morocco Plan has adopted the program of conversion of cereal crops sensitive to climate variability to tree crops, such as olive and almond, considered more resilient and more land rewarding (Ministry of Agriculture, 2020)30. In this context, Groupe Eau (2022)31 argues that the decline in rainfall and water resources should have adverse consequences on the future of agriculture, whether rainfed or irrigated. However, based on simulations relating to climate change, they predict that yields of many rainfed crops such as wheat and barley in particular could decrease by more than 50% in certain production areas in Morocco by 2050. The reconversion program of cereals into tree plantations is carried out in parallel with intensification programs aimed at the rehabilitation and maintenance of existing plantations in order to improve agricultural production. At the same time, farmers are aware of the benefits of combining tree plantations 29 Badraoui M. & R. Balaghi (2012).L’adaptation de l’agriculture marocaine au changement climatique in Zeino- Mahmalat E. & A. Bennis Eds. (2012). Environnement et Changement Climatique au Maroc : Diagnostic et Perspectives. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V., Bureau au Maroc 30 Ministry of Agriculture, Sea Fisheries, Rural Development, Water and Forests (2020). Green Morocco Plan: Review and Impacts 2008 – 2018. 31 Groupe Eau (2022), Livre Blanc sur Les Ressources en Eau au Maroc. Pour une Gestion Durable Assurant La Sécurité Hydrique pour le Pays. Document Préparé par un Groupe d’Experts, lauréats de l’Institut Agronomique 23 and intercropping cereals. The objective is to better promote the efforts undertaken in terms of modernization of irrigation infrastructure, mechanization of farms and improvement of farming practices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (2020)32, the mitigation and adaptation efforts undertaken under the MGP reinforced the resilience of the agricultural sector by reducing its dependence on the cereals sector. Indeed, estimated impact data of MGP depicts a 34.6% drop between 2003-2005 and 2015- 2018 of the cereals share in the agricultural value added in favor of trees cropping (+69.2%) and poultry meats (+25%) (Table 2). Table 2: Evolution of agricultural value added share by sector Subsector 2003-2005 2015-2018 %Evolution Cereals 26 17 -34,6 Red meat 21 21 0,0 Vegetables 18 15 -16,7 Tree crops 13 22 69,2 Poultry meat 8 10 25,0 Milk 6 6 0,0 Others 8 9 12,5 Total 100 100 - Source: Ministry of Agriculture (2020) For the Ministry of Agriculture, the design of all Green Morocco Plan projects takes into account the proactive management of climate change, in particular drought, and the preservation of natural resources. Through improvement of land use, diversification of production, intensification of agricultural activities and encouraging drip irrigation adoption, one of the key objectives is to diversify the sources of income for farmers by reducing the vulnerability of farms to climatic hazards. GG is reinforcing such aim by maintaining close attention to the management of natural resources, in particular land and water for agriculture. 6.2.2 Promotion of land PPP The public-private partnership (PPP) in agricultural land use is based on a contracting scheme with private investors to mobilize their expertise, their know-how and their financing capacities to promote agriculture (Ministry of Agriculture, 2022)33. The partnership contract is established for a 17 to 40 year period 32 Ministry of Agriculture, Sea Fisheries, Rural Development, Water and Forests (2020). Green Morocco Plan: Review and Impacts 2008 – 2018. 33 Ministère de l’Agriculture (2022), https://www.agriculture.gov.ma/fr/investissement/partenariat 24 depending on the type of investment project in which the investor undertakes his/her activity for an optimal valuation of the leased land. Three types of projects are concerned: • Small projects with an area of less than 20 ha, • Medium projects whose surface area varies between 20 ha and 100 ha, • Large projects with an area greater than 100 ha. In addition to improving the land value assets, encouraging investment in the agricultural sector through the mobilization of domestic and foreign private capital and the employment creation, the agricultural land PPP also aims at contributing to the development of agricultural value chains with high added value such as citrus fruits, olive trees, rosaceae, vines, export-oriented vegetables and fruits and certified seeds (Belqat, 2010)34. Investment projects can benefit from aid and subsidies granted under the Agricultural Development Fund, in particular for hydro-agricultural developments, especially drip irrigation equipment. Small producers can also participate in the PPP program for the exploitation of land whose area is less than 5 ha in irrigated areas and 10 ha in rainfed areas. The rental period is 17 years instead of a single year, which allows these farmers to make long-term investments while benefiting from aid and subsidies granted under the ADF. According to available data, the PPP program has made it possible to exploit nearly 145,000 ha, 80% of which is in the private domain of the State, 19% of collective land and 1% of Habous land. The development of this area required the financing of 1,700 contractual projects with a total national and foreign investment of 26.5 billion dirhams, which led to create nearly 76,300 permanent jobs. 6.2.3 Adoption of resilient techniques (No-tillage) The “Triple A” initiative for Africa (Adaptability of African Agriculture to Climate Change) has been proposed by the Moroccan Government at the Climate Summit COP 22 held in Marrakech in 2016 and was accepted. The adoption of conservation agriculture (CA) is one of the key techniques that were recommended within this initiative to enhance adaptability and resilience of agriculture in the African countries (Kassam et al, 2018)35. Later on, Green Plan Morocco has given a large interest to CA since its 34 Belqat S. (2010). Le Partenariat Public-Privé (PPP) : Nouveau mode de gestion et de financement des projets au Maroc. Communication au Troisième Dialogue Euro-Méditerranéen de Management Public. Tunis, 7 et 8 octobre 2010. 35 Kassam A., T. Friedrich and R. Derpsch (2018), Global spread of Conservation Agriculture. International Journal of Environmental Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2018.1494927 25 launch in 2008 and Generation Green strategy (2020 – 2030) has planned to reinforce it, in particular by adopting no tillage techniques in agriculture. According to Balaghi et al (2011)36, direct seeding protects the soil against water and wind erosion and reduces water loss due to evaporation. By using a special seeder, this operation can be practiced by farmers and that allows them to sow at early dates and thus benefit from all the rainy season from the beginning of the agricultural campaign. Direct seeding is recommended especially for cereals and legumes in regions with annual rainfall that varies between 200 and 400 mm on deep or moderately deep soils. It allows a range of advantages that can benefit farmers by reducing the time and cost of installation and technical management of their crops. In addition, this technique allows a yield gain of 30 to 40% and an improvement in water productivity of up to 60% compared to conventional sowing. For the 2021 – 2022 crop year, the total area affected by direct seeding in Morocco reached 50,000 ha, largely located in the regions of Beni Mellal – Khénifra, Rabat – Salé – Kénitra, Fez – Meknes, Casablanca – Settat, and Marrakesh–Safi (Ghouibi, 2021)37. Given the success recorded with farmers who have adopted this technique, the targeted area by GG for its adoption amounts to 100,000 ha for the 2022-2023 campaign and one million hectares by 2030, i.e. 20% of the yearly average cereal area (Ministry of Economy and Finance, 2022)38. Taking into account the subsidies granted to farmers for the acquisition of seeders under the ADF, the overall support cost for this area is estimated at 1.1 billion dirhams. 6.3 Improvement of investment climate Two main agricultural investment incentives are aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change. The first measure concerns the subsidies and aid granted by the State within the framework of the ADF and the second relates to the multi-risk insurance program. 36 Balaghi R., Jlibene M., Kamil H. et Benaouda H. (2011). Projet d’Intégration du Changement Climatique dans la mise en oeuvre du Plan Maroc Vert. Ministère de l'Agriculture et de la Pêche Maritime. Agence pour le Développement Agricole (PICCPMV). 37 Ghouibi A. (2021), Agriculture Semis direct : Un million d’hectares ciblés en 2030 pour un coût global de 1,1 milliards de dirhams. Medias 24 du 17/11/2021. 38 Ministère de l’Economie et des Finances (2022), Note de Conjoncture No 309, Novembre 2022. Direction des Etudes et des Prévisions Financières. 26 6.3.1 Agricultural Development Fund instruments The ADF is a financing support tool for the private investment with the aim of promoting the agricultural development in Morocco. Its multiple interventions allow the granting of direct aid and subsidies to farmers for the following equipment and activities (Ministry of Agriculture, 2022)39: • Hydro-agricultural management, including the installation of drip irrigation systems and land improvement, • Farm agricultural equipment (agricultural machinery and accompanying equipment, greenhouses, anti-hail nets, etc.); • Intensification of animal production (genetic improvement, livestock buildings, etc.), • Development of fruit arboriculture (Citrus, olive, date palm, rosaceae, etc.), • Use of selected cereal seeds (durum wheat, common wheat, barley, rice) and monogerm seeds of sugar beet, • Laboratory analyzes (soil, water, plants and residues), • Development of organic farming, • Construction and equipment of processing and packaging units for agricultural products, • Promotion and diversification of agricultural exports (citrus fruit, vegetables, olive oil, table olives, processed products, etc.). The granting of aid to support these equipment/activities is managed in collaboration with the Moroccan agricultural bank (Crédit Agricole du Maroc). Other ADF interventions are part of the efforts undertaken by the public authorities to improve production systems and combat the effects of climatic hazards. They include in particular: • Aid granted under the agricultural aggregation system (subsidized rates for mechanization and irrigation and flat-rate subsidy for the aggregator), • Development of the value chains through the program contracts signed conjointly by the Ministry of Agriculture and the various agricultural inter-professions (20 program contracts signed so far), 39 Ministère de l’Agriculture, de la Pêche Maritime, du Développement Rural et des Eaux et Forêts (2022). Fonds de Développement Agricole : Un instrument d’incitation efficace. www.agriculture.gov.ma 27 • Contribution to the Natural Disaster Fund (including drought), and • Promotion of agricultural insurance. The annual allocations of the ADF are around 4 billion dirhams in average. The aid granted to farmers to encourage adoption of the drip irrigation system, the acquisition of direct seeding equipment, the conversion to resilient tree crops (case of the olive tree and the almond tree) and the promotion of agricultural insurance enable farmers to strengthen their adaptation and resilience to climate change. 6.3.2 Multi-risk insurance programs In the context of climate change and in order to protect farmers from climate hazards, the Green Morocco Plan has established, in partnership with the Moroccan Agricultural Insurance Mutual (MAMDA), a climatic multi-risk insurance by setting up a guarantee system. This program benefits from ADF subsidies to help farmers in adopting it as it contributes to foster their resilience in the face of negative climatic effects. Farmers can contract one or both of the following insurance schemes (Ministry of Agriculture, 2020)40: • Climatic multi-risk insurance for cereals, pulse crops and oilseeds. Currently, this program created in 2011, covers risks of drought, water excess, hail, freeze, strong winds and sandstorms on more than 1 million hectares, compared to 65,000 Ha in 2011; • Fruit-growing climatic risk guaranty program set up in 2014. This insurance covers climatic risks of high temperatures, excess water, hail, freeze, strong winds and hot eastern winds (Cherguy in Arabic). The insured acreage for this program reached slightly more than 7000 ha in 2020. In 2020, the amount of the subsidy for agricultural insurance by the FDA reached 377.8 million dirhams, of which 98% for the multi-risk program for cereals, legumes and oilseeds. This amount is expected to increase significantly to cover an area of 1.2 million ha planned for the 2022-2023 campaign (Ministry of Economy and Finance, 2022)41. 40 Ministry of Agriculture, Sea Fisheries, Rural Development, Water and Forests (2020). Green Morocco Plan: Review and Impacts 2008 – 2018. 41 Ministère de l’Economie et des Finances (2022), Note de Conjoncture No 309, Novembre 2022. Direction des Etudes et des Prévisions Financières. 28 7. References Ait El Mekki A. (2008), L’Agriculture, l’Agroalimentaire, la Pêche et le Développement Rural dans les Pays Méditerranéens : Tendances et Politiques. Cas du Maroc. Options Méditerranéennes. Série B : Etudes et Recherches No B61. Balaghi R., Jlibene M., Kamil H. et Benaouda H. (2011). Projet d’Intégration du Changement Climatique dans la mise en oeuvre du Plan Maroc Vert. Ministère de l'Agriculture et de la Pêche Maritime. Agence pour le Développement Agricole (PICCPMV). Badraoui M. & R. 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