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Policy Brief No. 16 
October, 2023
Nying'uro P, Craparo A.C.W, Diji C, Driouech F, Lukorito C, 
Minoarivelo H.O, Okem, A.E,  Thiam M
CLIMATE DATA, 
CLIMATE MODELS AND KEY MESSAGES
OBSERVATIONAL 1. Insufficient observational networks, data
INFRASTRUCTURE management systems and maintenance of
weather observational infrastructure
result in deficiency of climate data and
information availability for risk
management, vulnerability assessment
and adaptation in Africa.
2. African climate modeling capabilities and
tools need improvement for enhanced
understanding of climate variability and
change; and improved climate
predictions and projections.
3. Africa needs investments in observation
Weather station at the Kenya Meteorological Department stations, data management, processing
Introduction infrastructure and human resources to
support the production, dissemination
Climate data plays a crucial role in climate and uptake of context-relevant climate
change adaptation and mitigation efforts. Climate information and services.
data provides valuable insights into historical 
climate patterns, long-term trends, and variability in 
key climate variables. This information helps 
scientists understand the nature and extent of 
climate change, including its causes, impacts, Weather observational infrastructure
vulnerability, and potential future scenarios. Although Africa covers a fifth of the world’s 
Moreover, climate data is also used to monitor land mass, it has the lowest number of 
and verify the effectiveness of climate stations by comparison. Africa’s density of 
adaptation and mitigation efforts. This helps weather observing stations constitutes only 
policymakers and stakeholders evaluate the an eighth of the minimum density stipulated 
success of their initiatives, identify areas for by the World Meteorological Organization 
improvement, and make informed decisions (WMO) . It is estimated that only 10% of 
about future actions. the world’s ground-based observation 
In Africa, where compound extreme events  networks are in Africa, and a little more 
are identified as a key risk from climate change , than half of Africa’s surface weather stations 
climate data can be crucial for disaster risk cannot capture data accurately. Most African 
management. It also serves as a fundamental regions are sparsely gauged, even with 
input in designing climate change impact models. respect to basic climatic and hydrological 
Reliable climate data is essential in assessing the variables. They often lack regular reporting 
vulnerabilities of different regions, ecosystems, of quality-controlled data (Figure 1 panel a). 
and sectors to extreme climate events such as sea- In some countries, the data collection and 
level rise, heat waves, droughts, or floods; and maintenance of previously installed stations 
aiding in the development of reliable early have lapsed for an extended period. Since 
warning systems and in detection and attribution the 1980s, there has been a decline in the 
studies. A good knowledge of prevailing climatic number of weather stations that are in 
conditions allows for better planning and decision operation and/or quality-controlled data has 
making to reduce and manage climatic risks. been declining (Figure 1 panel b). Most 
Developing and refining global and regional weather stations are in cities, while rural 
climate models that simulate the current and areas, where people are arguably vulnerable 
future Earth’s climate system rely on good-quality to climate variability and change, experience 
climate data. These models are essential for poor coverage. 
precise climate projections used in developing 
evidence-based policies and effective climate action. 
Policy Brief No. 16
Weather observational infrastructure
Since the 1980s, there has been a decline in 
Although Africa covers a fifth of the world’s the number of weather stations that are in 
land mass, it has the lowest number of stations operation and/or quality-controlled data has 
by comparison. Africa’s density of weather been declining (Figure 1 panel b). Most 
observing stations constitutes only an eighth of weather stations are in cities, while rural 
the minimum density stipulated by the World areas, where people are arguably vulnerable 
Meteorological Organization (WMO) . to climate variability and change, 
Most African regions are sparsely gauged, even experience poor coverage. It is estimated that 
with respect to basic climatic and hydrological only 10% of the world’s ground-based 
variables. They often lack regular reporting of observation networks are in Africa, and a little 
quality-controlled data (Figure 1 panel a). In more than half of Africa’s surface weather 
some countries, the data collection and stations cannot capture data accurately. The 
maintenance of previously installed stations diversity of Africa’s landscape calls for 
have lapsed for an extended period. increased investment in the number of 
observation stations to cater for the wide-
ranging climatic zones. 
Figure 1: Large regions of Africa lack regularly reporting and quality-controlled weather station data. This figure shows stations in Africa with 
quality-controlled station data used in developing the Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network (REGEN) interpolated rainfall product (Harrison 
et al., 2019). (a) A spatial representation of stations across the continent since 1950 shown as black dots and red crosses, where red crosses 
represent stations that were still active in 2017. (b) The decline in operational stations or stations with quality-controlled data since circa 1998, 
which is largely a function of declining networks in a subset of countries. Figure is derived from Carter et al. (2020).  
Declining investment in climate infrastructure is a The operation, maintenance and upgrading of 
major impediment to the operation current and future monitoring systems is one 
and maintenance of weather observation of the challenges facing the development and 
networks and related infrastructure for many management of weather observation 
weather observing stations in Africa. This may infrastructures in the continent. More often than 
reflect the lack of understanding of the benefits not, inadequate funding of NMHSs in Africa has 
of climate measurements and observations in been due to the low priority given to its services, 
socioeconomic development processes. The lack of awareness about the economic value of 
lack of climate information poses risks to hydro-meteorological data, and limited studies 
African countries, including a lack of critical demonstrating the importance of hydro-
understanding of issues underpinning Loss and meteorological data.
Damage.
Financial sustainability ensures continuity in the The coordinated exchange of meteorological data 
delivery of climate services. Limited and products through the Global 
and unsustained funding for National Telecommunication System (GTS) of the WMO 
Meteorological and Hydrological Services enables real-time and varied time-scale forecasting 
(NMHSs) and other stakeholders responsible activities. However, the inadequate observation 
for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating networks in some countries impede the delivery of 
climate data and information. Their effort is these functions. This inadequacy contributes to poor 
representation of weather systems, climate patterns 
2 complemented by the private sector and other 
stakeholders who invest in weather stations, and status of water resources affecting countries, and 
collect and disseminate data. consequently adversely impacts the quality and 
range of climate services in Africa. 
CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE -OCTOBER 2023
Policy Brief No. 16
In addition, inadequate and often obsolete observational data to validate and support the 
telecommunication facilities and networks for modeling process, scarcity of dedicated climate 
exchanging data and products used by NMHSs in modeling centers, and limited funding for requisite 
Africa hampers the efficient flow of observations research. 
and products, including multi-hazard early 
warnings. Africa’s unique climate requires customised models 
that are suitable for application in the continent. 
Given the important role of the NMHS in the This inadequacy in African climate models is a 
national infrastructure for supporting vital crucial missing link in the continent’s adaptation 
socioeconomic functions such as disaster risk planning and resilience building. In response to 
reduction, agriculture and food security, water these challenges, the first African Earth system 
resources, health, energy and transportation, model  is currently under development to enable 
their capacity to provide better early warning more reliable projections of future climate change 
services to reduce disaster risks, supporting over Africa and the Southern Indian Ocean. A few 
national development and life-supporting other centers are likewise undertaking works 
activities that are sensitive to weather, climate including in Morocco (UM6P) for the development 
and water outcomes needs to be strengthened. and improvement of climate models and related 
Achieving these goals requires systematically expertise across the continent.
observing and collecting data that form the 
foundation for monitoring and projecting 
weather, climate, water and related Use of climate models 
environmental conditions and issuance of Climate models serve as tools for researchers to 
warnings, alerts and advisories in a timely and analyze historical climate and gain a profound 
effective manner for planning and decision understanding of past climate variability and lay a 
making. sound basis for projecting future climate due to 
Increasingly, satellite  based platforms are being climate change. By simulating various components 
used to augment ground-based observations to of the Earth system, including the atmosphere, 
contribute to climatological information.  The oceans, cryosphere, and land surface, these models 
usefulness of data derived from these platforms possess the ability to recreate past climate conditions 
depends on how well they have been validated with precision. They also provide invaluable insights 
against the ground based observed datasets. into the underlying mechanisms driving climate 
Generally, the degree of automation of climatic fluctuations, unraveling the complex interplay of 
and hydrometric networks remains very low, factors that shape the evolution of the earth’s 
and telemetry is not used in most countries. Sub- climate and its variability. In retrospective analysis, 
Saharan Africa NMHS lack adequate or modern climate models play a crucial role in identifying the 
data acquisition and management systems for drivers of climate change. By simulating different 
receiving, processing, storing, disseminating, and scenarios encompassing natural and human-induced 
transmitting climate data and water resource forcings, these models facilitate a comprehensive 
data and information. Therefore, the assessment of the anthropogenic responses on the 
development of data management systems, climate system. Through quantifying the 
being one of the highest leverage activities for contributions of greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, 
making climate information available for solar radiation, and other relevant variables, climate 
research and decision making is urgent for models enable scientists to identify the primary 
African countries. factors responsible for climate change, thus shedding 
light on the intricate dynamics of our global climate 
Climate models system.
Climate models play a crucial role in fostering Furthermore, climate models are extensively 
understanding of current and future climate employed for projecting future climate conditions. 
variability and change. They help identify drivers By incorporating data on greenhouse gas emissions, 
of climate patterns and provide valuable land-use changes, and other influential factors, these 
projections for decision-making processes. Africa models can simulate a range of future scenarios. As a 
lags  behind the rest of the world in developing result, they provide valuable estimates of crucial 
climate models customised for the continent, climate variables, such as temperature, precipitation, 
despite the critical need for climate model wind, and sea level rise. These projections are of 
outputs to address its inherent and deepening immense significance to policymakers and planners, 
vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate because they assist in anticipating and preparing for 
change. potential impacts of climate change. Climate models 
None of the current generation of general are critical in generating tailored information and 
circulation models (GCMs) was built in Africa. assessments for specific sectors and regions. Through 
The few models that are run in the continent a process known as downscaling, these models can 
have been downscaled by a few national or refine global climate projections, offering localized 
regional climate centers including IGAD Climate insights into the potential climate impacts on diverse 
Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in areas. This localized information provides an 
eastern Africa, the University of Cape Town in invaluable understanding of changes in water 
Southern Africa, The University of Mohammed resources, agriculture, coastal regions, ecosystems, 
VI Polytechnic (UM6P, Morocco) and the and other critical domains. Stakeholders and 
General Meteorological Directorate of Morocco. decision-makers can then leverage this information 
3 Several reasons could account for this to develop adaptive strategies and policies that 
shortcoming, including limited climate expertise, address the unique challenges climate change poses. 
lack of computing resources, scarcity of weather
CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE -OCTOBER 2023
Policy Brief No.16
A shortage of observational networks is one of countries, is quite limited and often attracts a fee 
the main obstacles to climate modeling in Africa. when available. This contrasts with the mandate of 
It is challenging to calibrate and evaluate climate NMHSs to freely share data through the WMO’s 
models in Africa due to the continent's Global Telecommunication System (GTS). Data 
comparatively small observational network. This available from Africa is typically only a small subset of 
is a result of insufficient and/or lack of weather the total number of stations (less than 50% of what is 
stations, ocean buoys, and other sensors to expected by WMO) and data types managed by the 
gather the data required to run climate models. NMHS8. 
Climate data and observation networks While data sparsity is prevalent globally, it is 
Climate data, comprising variables such particularly common in Africa, especially over remote 
as temperature, precipitation, humidity, geographies, and conflict zones. For instance, 
wind speed and direction, and atmospheric amongst the climate data reports received by WMO 
pressure at both current and future climates, during 2004-2010, Africa’s contribution was the least, 
constitute a fundamental basis for anchoring with less than 50% of expected data . The challenge 
climate action in a changing climate. Climate of data accessibility in the continent is driven by 
data presents enormous value in presenting several factors, including legal restrictions, low 
and framing climate change, assessing climate- financial investment, lack of dissemination capacity 
related baseline risks, understanding the and tools, and high access costs. In some cases, 
nature of climate variability and trends, historical climate records are available on paper and/
understanding the impacts of climate variability or magnetic tapes that have not been digitised, thus 
and change on different socioeconomic reducing their accessibility. Other impediments are 
activities, and developing and validating linked to issues of lack of trust by the NMHS of how 
climate predictions/projections. Data capture the meteorological data might be used (or misused) 
and management are equally important without their consent, especially through wanton 
because long term observational datasets of high sharing of their data with third parties and the risk of 
quality are the basis for climate risk undermining demand for their products, which may 
assessments, which provide the foundation for potentially lead to private profiteering at their 
low emissions climate resilient development expenses. In addition, data restrictions may also stem 
pathways for Africa. The various facets of from the need to charge fees to cover the cost of 
climate data management such as governance preparing and sharing data services. The lack of data 
of climate data management systems, data sharing slows down the development of climate 
sharing and availability, data analysis, data services for risk reduction and adaptation across the 
presentation and ICT infrastructure in continent.
several cases require enhanced capacity to Challenges of data gaps can be addressed through 
implement, especially in vulnerable regions data rescue approaches and digitisation. This requires 
such as Africa. investment by African countries to fill the missing data 
Satellite-based data, which provide several gaps. Approaches for overcoming the challenge of 
benefits, including improved spatial and data availability would require both short- and long-
temporal resolution,  are provided freely from term solutions. Short-term solutions are approaches 
different global climate satellite monitoring used to overcome the scarcity of historical data 
centres such as the National Aeronautics needed for research and different applications, while 
and Space Administration (NASA) or the long-term solutions aim at addressing the challenges 
European Space Agency (ESA). Similarly, of data availability in future by strengthening the 
the IPCC Interactive Atlas  provides capacities of NMHS, and also through direct efforts 
information on past and future climate changes by various actors to expand collection and 
for regions. Although satellite-based data has dissemination of weather and climate data. 
been increasingly used to complement climate In addition, NMHSs can leverage the efforts and 
data from ground-based weather stations in databases of numerous climate research institutions 
Africa, data gaps still exist in the continent’s across Africa, including the trans-African hydro-
climatic databases. Central and eastern Africa meteorological observatory, the West African Science 
particularly suffer from insufficient long-term in Service Centre on Climate Change and Adaptive Land 
situ measurements, making climate projections Management (WASCAL) , the Southern African 
less accurate . Even where data exists, Science Service Centre for Climate Change, Adaptive 
accessing it from NMHS in Africa remains a Land Management (SASSCAL)  and the AMMA-
major challenge. The gaps in the data records CATCH National Observation Service and Critical 
make the data unsuitable for analysis to generate Zone Exploration Network  as a start to bridge the 
information for many purposes. Many sensors climate data gaps in advance of further investment.
are out of order, and real-time data is 
largely unavailable. Other major challenges In Africa, the low data quality of climate data is also 
related to climatic databases in Africa include principally due to low accuracy and/or precision. 
questionable data quality and limited access Weather observations and measurements are prone 
and use of the available datasets. Gaps in to human, instrumental, station siting and data entry 
spatial coverage and in time series result in errors into computers. This challenge is further 
incomplete understanding and knowledge of compounded by a lack of tools to perform quality 
control coupled with inadequate capacity to use 
4 physical conditions, setbacks in climate 
change impact assessment, development existing tools. Where climate database management 
of early warning systems, and delays in systems with tools for basic quality control exist, lack 
planning and communication of disaster of capacity to utilise the tools is also a major cause of 
risks. low quality climate data. 
 crucial for long-term resilience. 
CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE -OCTOBER 2023
Policy Brief No. 16
Weather station coverage is very sparse and has regional experiments such as CORDEX. They can be 
even been declining . Most weather stations are used for providing more detailed climate model 
in cities, while rural areas where people are information and then better support adaptation and 
arguably the most vulnerable to climate decision making in the continent. Experts  indicate 
variability experience poor coverage. that CORDEX-Africa represents a unique initiative 
Additionally, a notable amount of weather with tremendous potential to change the information 
station data has not yet been digitized in Africa, availability on regional climate change for the African 
reducing their accessibility and usefulness for continent. This is expected to support more regionally 
climate research. Even when data exists, it is and nationally appropriate adaptation strategies.
often of poor quality with inaccuracy and 
missing observations. To address these issues, In conclusion, further to climate models, the 
preliminary efforts have been made to support infrastructure supporting climate data, such as 
observation climate networks across Africa, computing resources and observational infrastructure, 
especially through different initiatives within is essential for supporting climate change policy 
regional climate centres and research development in Africa.
institutions. However significant gaps still Conclusion
remain.
Robust climate data is critical to understanding trends 
Climate data infrastructure and changes in the climate system and assessing/
Infrastructure for climate data is essential for understanding how the climate will change in the 
solving climate change concerns and guiding future under different socioeconomic conditions. This 
policy decisions. In addition to the creation and information is critical for policy and planning in 
use of climate models and observational responding to climate risks. However, Africa suffers 
infrastructure, it also includes the gathering, from insufficient observational networks, data 
management, and transmission of climate data . management systems and maintenance. Investments 
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects in ground-based observation stations, data 
(CMIP) have been important tools in management systems, computing power and enabling 
strengthening climate data collection and use. access to climate data in Africa will enable the 
By creating cutting-edge multimodel datasets, production and dissemination of context-specific 
CMIP seeks to improve our understanding of climate information to support risk management, 
climate variability and change. This dataset adaptation planning and decision making
contains climate simulations for the twentieth 
century as well as predictions for the twenty- Recommendation
first century and beyond. It is, however, crucial • A hydro-meteorological station master plan,
to note that the resolution is coarse. including Earth observatory system for Africa
Various initiatives to offer regionally would go a long way to address many of the
downscaled data provide improved resolution challenges facing African countries in data issues.
information for better regional context Development of this masterplan would ideally
planning. One such one is CORDEX, take a co-production approach, where users
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling would highlight their weather and climate
Experiment. CORDEX aims to provide climate requirements for informed decision making and
projections with much greater detail and a the impacts of fulfilling those requirements.
more accurate representation of localized • Funding Africa’s weather observation stations
extreme events. Experts  indicate that and processing infrastructure remains a critical
CORDEX-Africa represents a unique initiative and urgent challenge. Developing
with tremendous potential to change the communication capacity at lead institutions for
information availability on regional climate meteorological and hydrological services to
change for the African continent. strengthen and conduct awareness and
Through an integrated but distributed data communication programs targeted at decision
archive, the complete experiment design of makers, data users, and observers is essential for
CMIP and CORDEX makes a variety of model securing sustainable funding.
outputs openly available to researchers. This • Africa needs to build the local capacity needed
accessibility encourages teamwork and makes it to manage, process and disseminate context-
possible for researchers to evaluate and relevant climate information. This can be
validate the performance of the models  . achieved by tapping into and maximising
Policymakers and stakeholders can consider the existing institutions and structures that support
outcomes of such experiments and other climate services on the continent.
climate data infrastructure programs when • A vast amount of historical data in Africa
creating successful policies for coping with and remains undigitised. Rescuing these data through
adapting to climate change.  It is, however, data mining and digitisation will provide
critical to note that these datasets are at a valuable historical data, thus filling gaps that
resolution that may not be effectively used for currently exist in ground-based observation data
local context adaptation planning as it is still on the continent.
coarse.
5 • Enhancing and improving data sharing processes
It is worth noting that we now have new will help progressing climate related research,
interesting computing capacities (in some few model development and climate services
African countries) that may serve for model diversity and quality.
runs including in the context of international or
CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE -OCTOBER 2023
Policy Brief No. 16
Further Reading 
Dinku, T., 2019: Challenges with Availability and Quality of Climate Data in Africa. Extreme Hydrology and Climate 
Variability, Elsevier, pp. 71-80, doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-815998-9.00007-5 
Engelbrecht, F. (n.d). The First African-Based Earth System Model. Natural Environment. 
https://journals.co.za/doi/pdf/10.10520/EJC179979 
Galle, S. et al., 2018: AMMA-CATCH, a Critical Zone Observatory in West Africa Monitoring a Region in Transition. 
Vadose Zone Journal, 17(1), 180062, doi: https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.03.0062. 
Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. 
Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 
2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth 
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, 
S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy,
J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University 
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1927–2058, doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.021. 
Kaspar, F. et al., 2015: The SASSCAL contribution to climate observation, climate data management and data rescue in 
Southern Africa. Advances In Science and Research, 12, 171–177, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-171-2015. 
Kaspar F., Andersson A., Ziese M., Hollmann R. (2022). Contributions to the Improvement of Climate Data Availability 
and Quality for Sub-Saharan Africa. Frontiers in Climate. Vol. 3 DOI=10.3389/fclim.2021.815043    
James, R., et al. (2018). Evaluating Climate Models with an African Lens. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 313–336, 
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0090.1 
Trisos, C.H.  et al. (2022) Africa. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of 
Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge 
Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1285-1455, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.011.  
Salack, S. et al., 2019: Designing Transnational Hydroclimatological Observation Networks and Data Sharing Policies in 
West Africa. Data Science Journal (DSJ), 18(1), doi: http://doi.org/10.5334/dsj-2019-033. 
World Meteorological Organization. State of the Climate in Africa 2019. WMO-No. 1253., 2020. ISBN 978-92-63-11253-
8. https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10421
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012). An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the 
American Meteorological Society, 93(4), 485-498. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/93/4/bams-
d-11-00094.1.xml 
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