Mario Herrero Sustainable livestock Challenges, misconceptions and solutions https://animalhealthmetrics.org https://animalhealthmetrics.org Global economic value of farmed animals (2018) Schrobback et al. 2023 GFS Value of crops 2.57 trillion Over 1 billion people employed https://animalhealthmetrics.org/ The demand for livestock products 1990 - 2015 3 storylines of per capita demand: Pork, and poultry especially, growing at an accelerated pace everywhere, but mostly in low and middle income countries Dairy growing in low and middle income countries, stagnating in OECD Red meats stagnating everywhere source: Willett et al 2019, The Lancet Current food availability vs EAT-Lancet diet variation in under- / over- consumption of products within & between regions Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock BEHIND THE NUMBERS 65-78% from cattle 45% enteric methane 40% feed production are the main sources & ~60% of GHG come from mixed crop- livestock systems Herrero et al. 2016, Nature Climate Change ~1/3 of global cropland 3.5B ha of grasslands Gonzalez-Fischer and Herrero 2023 (submitted) 2010 - 2020 Cattle numbers still driving production in the places that matter most Ruminant livestock production growth still mostly driven by increases in animal numbers Gonzalez-Fischer and Herrero 2023 (submitted) SWEET SPOT A quick note on methane and metrics Garnett et al. 2017 Animal numbers constant Animal numbers increasing Mitigation practices in livestock systems IPCC SRCCL 2020 Lots of options Technical potential about 2.4 GtC02eq... ... but economic potential about: 0.4 Gt C02EQ Novel technologies for enteric methane mitigation Economic potential? Reis inger et al. 2022 Phil Trans R. Soc. Impacts of climate change on livestock value chains (Godde et al 2021 GFS) Circularity: Livestock fed on waste can produce up to 35% of human protein requirements Van Zanten et al. 2018 Global Change Biology Animal protein produced from food waste Pikaar et al. 2017 Env Sci Tech Alternative protein sources can replace of feed protein sources & reduce of GHG from feed production 11-19% 8% UNEP 2023, adapted from GFI 2023 Biggest barriers, worries & solutions • Lots of options for improvement • Low adoption of improved practices ⚬ Naive economics - need to be at low cost and profitable ⚬ Private industry engagement • Demand growth leading to additional problems (infectious diseases, etc.) • Increases in investment of an order of magnitude necessary Mario Herrero, Professor of food systems & global change at Cornell University & a Cornell Atkinson Scholar Warren Hall 250C Thank you WEBSITE cals.cornell.edu/food-systems-global-change SOCIALS LinkedIn | X/Twitter | Instagram | YouTubemario.herrero@cornell.edu EMAIL https://www.linkedin.com/company/cornell-food-systems-global-change/ https://twitter.com/GlobalFoodTeam https://www.instagram.com/foodsystemsglobalchange/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrtpBWS24wc3khmrs7CepgA mailto:mario.herrero@cornell.edu Slide 1 Slide 2: Global economic value of farmed animals (2018) Slide 3 Slide 4: Current food availability vs EAT-Lancet diet Slide 5 Slide 6 Slide 7 Slide 8 Slide 9 Slide 10 Slide 11: Impacts of climate change on livestock value chains (Godde et al 2021 GFS) Slide 12 Slide 13 Slide 14 Slide 15 Slide 16