SPM9 Africa Coordinating Lead Authors: Christopher H. Trisos (South Africa), Ibidun O. Adelekan (Nigeria), Edmond Totin (Benin) Lead Authors: Ayansina Ayanlade (Nigeria), Jackson Efitre (Uganda), Adugna Gemeda (Ethiopia), Kanungwe Kalaba (Zambia), Christopher Lennard (South Africa), Catherine Masao (Tanzania), Yunus Mgaya (Tanzania), Grace Ngaruiya (Kenya), Daniel Olago (Kenya), Nicholas P. Simpson (Zimbabwe/South Africa), Sumaya Zakieldeen (Sudan) Contributing Authors: Philip Antwi-Agyei (Ghana), Aaron Atteridge (Sweden/Australia), Rachel Bezner-Kerr (Canada/USA), Timothy Breitbarth (USA/South Korea), Max Callaghan (UK/Germany), Tamma Carleton (USA), Colin Carlson (USA), Hayley Clements (South Africa), Declan Conway (UK), Sean Cooke (South Africa), Matthew Chersich (South Africa), David Chiawo (Kenya), Romy Chevalier (South Africa), Joanne Clarke (Australian/UK), Marlies Craig (South Africa), Olivier Crespo (South Africa), James Cullis (South Africa), Jampel Dell’Angelo (Italy/USA), Luleka Dlamini (South Africa) Hussen Seid Endris (Kenya), Christien Engelbreht (South Africa), Aidan Farrell (Trinidad and Tobago/Ireland), James Franke (USA), Thian Yew Gan (Malaysia/Canada), Christopher Golden (USA), Kerry Grey (South Africa), Toshihiro Hasegawa (Japan), Ryan Hogarth (Canada/UK), Hassan O. Kaya (South Africa), Nadia Khalaf (UK), Mercy Kinyua (Kenya), Scott Kulp (USA), William F. Lamb (UK/Germany), Charne Lavery (South Africa), Johan Maritz (South Africa), Guy Midgley (South Africa), Danielle Millar (South Africa), Jan Minx (Germany), Glenn Moncrieff (South Africa), Rachid Moussadek (Morocco), Mzime Ndebele-Murisa (Zimbabwe), Emily Nicklin (South Africa), Michelle North (South Africa), Mary Nyasimi (Kenya), Elizabeth Nyboer (Canada), Romaric Odoulami (Benin/South Africa), Andrew Okem (South Africa/Nigeria), Gladys Okemwa (Kenya), Kulthoum Omari (Botswana/South Africa), Esther Onyango (Kenya/Australia), Birgitt Ouweneel (the Netherlands/South Africa), Indra Øverland (Norway), Lorena, Pasquini (South Africa), Laura Pereira (South Africa), Belynda Petrie (South Africa), Alex Pigot (UK), Wilfried Pokam (Cameroon), Bronwen Powell (Canada/USA), Jeff Price (UK), Heather Randell (USA), Maren Radeny (Kenya), Jonathan Rawlins (South Africa), Kanta Kumari Rigaud (Malaysia/USA), Carla Roncoli (USA), Olivia Rumble (South Africa), Elisa Sainz de Murieta (Spain), Georgia Savvidou (Sweden/Cyprus), Lucia Schlemmer (South Africa), Laura Schmitt Olabisi (USA), Chandni Singh (India), Thomas Smucker (USA), Nicola Stevens (South Africa), Anna Steynor (South Africa), Bamba Sylla (Rwanda/ Senegal), Arame Tall (Senegal/USA), Richard Taylor (Canada/UK), Meryem Tenarhte (Morocco/ 1285 Chapter 9 Africa Germany), Mia Thom (South Africa), Jessica Thorn (Namibia/South Africa), Maria Tirado (USA/ SPAIN), Katharina Waha (Germany/Australia), Hitomi Wakatsuki (Japan), Edna Wangui (Kenya/ USA), Portia Adade Williams (Ghana), Kevin Winter (South Africa), Caradee Wright (South Africa), Luckson Zvobgo (Zimbabwe/South Africa) Review Editors: Stuart Mark Howden (Australia), Robert (Bob) J. Scholes (South Africa), Pius Yanda (Tanzania) Chapter Scientists: Michelle North (South Africa), Luckson Zvobgo (Zimbabwe/South Africa) 9 This chapter should be cited as: Trisos, C.H., I.O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N.P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen, 2022: Africa. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1285–1455, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.011. 1286 Africa Chapter 9 Table of Contents Executive Summary �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1289 9.6 Ecosystems �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1332 9.6.1 Observed Impacts of Climate Change on African 9.1 Introduction ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1294 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services ����������������������� 1332 9.1.1 Point of Departure �������������������������������������������������������������� 1294 9.6.2 Projected Risks of Climate Change for African 9.1.2 Major Conclusions from Previous Assessments 1294 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services ����������������������� 1334 9.1.3 What’s New on Africa in AR6? ������������������������������������ 1295 9.6.3 Nature-based Tourism in Africa ���������������������������������� 1338 9.1.4 Climate Change Impacts Across Africa ������������������ 1298 9.6.4 Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Africa ������������������� 1339 9.1.5 Climate Data and Research Gaps Across Africa 1298 Box 9.3 | Tree planting in Africa ������������������������������������������������ 1341 9.1.6 Loss and Damage from Climate Change 9 �������������� 1299 9.7 Water ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1342 9.2 Key Risks for Africa ������������������������������������������������������������������ 1299 9.7.1 Observed Impacts from Climate Variability and Climate Change ���������������������������������������������������������� 1342 9.3 Climate Adaptation Options �������������������������������������������� 1301 Box 9.4 | African cities facing water scarcity ����������������� 1343 9.3.1 Adaptation Feasibility and Effectiveness �������������� 1301 9.7.2 Projected Risks and Vulnerability ������������������������������ 1344 9.3.2 Adaptation Co-Benefits and Trade-Offs with 9.7.3 Water Adaptation Options and Their Feasibility 1346 Mitigation and SDGs ��������������������������������������������������������� 1304 Box 9.5 | Water–energy–food nexus �������������������������������������� 1347 9.4 Climate Resilient Development ������������������������������������� 1304 9.8 Food Systems �������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1349 9.4.1 Climate Finance �������������������������������������������������������������������� 1305 9.8.1 Vulnerability to Observed and Projected Impacts 9.4.2 Governance ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1309 from Climate Change �������������������������������������������������������� 1350 9.4.3 Cross-sectoral and Transboundary Solutions ����� 1310 9.8.2 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks to Crops 9.4.4 Climate Change Adaptation Law in Africa and Livestock ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1350 ���������� 1312 9.4.5 Climate Services, Perception and Literacy ������������ 1313 9.8.3 Adapting to Climate Variability and Change in Agriculture �������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1356 Box 9.1 | Vulnerability Synthesis ���������������������������������������������� 1318 9.8.4 Climate Information Services and Insurance for Agriculture Adaptation ��������������������������������������������� 1357 9.5 Observed and Projected Climate Change ������������� 1320 9.8.5 Marine and Inland Fisheries ����������������������������������������� 1357 9.5.1 Climate Hazards in Africa ����������������������������������������������� 1320 9.5.2 North Africa ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1322 9.9 Human Settlements and Infrastructure ������������������ 1360 9.5.3 West Africa ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 1325 9.9.1 Urbanisation, Population and Development 9.5.4 Central Africa ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1326 Trends ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1360 9.5.5 East Africa �������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1327 9.9.2 Observed Impacts on Human Settlements and 9.5.6 Southern Africa Infrastructure ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1360 ��������������������������������������������������������������������� 1328 9.5.7 Tropical Cyclones ����������������������������������������������������������������� 1329 9.9.3 Observed Vulnerabilities of Human Settlements to Climate Risks ������������������������������������������������������������������� 1363 9.5.8 Glaciers �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1329 9.9.4 Projected Risks for Human Settlements and 9.5.9 Teleconnections and Large-Scale Drivers of Infrastructure ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1363 African Climate Variability ��������������������������������������������� 1329 9.9.5 Adaptation in Human Settlements and for 9.5.10 African Marine Heatwaves �������������������������������������������� 1329 Infrastructure ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1368 Box 9.2 | Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1330 9.10 Health �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1371 9.10.1 The Influence of Social Determinants of Health on the Impacts of Climate Change ��������������������������� 1371 9.10.2 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks ������������������ 1372 Chapter 9 Africa Box 9.6 | Pandemic risk in Africa: COVID-19 and future threats ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 1375 Box 9.7 | The health–climate change nexus in Africa ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1380 9.10.3 Adaptation for Health and Well-being in Africa 1380 9.11 Economy, Poverty and Livelihoods ����������������������������� 1385 9.11.1 Observed Impacts of Climate Change on African Economies and Livelihoods ������������������������������������������� 1385 9.11.2 Projected Risks of Climate Change for African Economies and Livelihoods ������������������������������������������� 1387 9.11.3 Informality ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1387 9 9.11.4 Climate Change Adaptation to Reduce Vulnerability, Poverty and Inequality ���������������������� 1388 9.11.5 COVID-19 Recovery Stimulus Packages for Climate Action ����������������������������������������������������������������������� 1390 Box 9.8 | Climate change, migration and displacement in Africa ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1391 9.12 Heritage ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1393 9.12.1 Observed Impacts on Cultural Heritage. ��������������� 1393 Box 9.9 | Climate Change and Security: Interpersonal Violence and Large-scale Civil Conflict ������������������������������� 1394 9.12.2 Projected Risks ���������������������������������������������������������������������� 1395 9.12.3 Adaptation ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1396 Frequently Asked Questions FAQ 9.1 | Which climate hazards impact African livelihoods, economies, health and well-being the most? ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1399 FAQ 9.2 | What are the limits and benefits of climate change adaptation in Africa? ������������������������������������������������������ 1401 FAQ 9.3 | How can African countries secure enough food in changing climate conditions for their growing populations? ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1401 FAQ 9.4 | How can African local knowledge serve climate adaptation planning more effectively? ���������� 1402 References ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1403 1288 Africa Chapter 9 Executive Summary resources can provide more actionable insights on climate risks and adaptation options in Africa. {9.1,5 9.4.5, 9.5.2} Overall Key Messages Adaptation generally is cost-effective, but annual finance Africa is one of the lowest contributors to greenhouse gas flows targeting adaptation for Africa are billions of US dollars emissions causing climate change, yet key development sectors less than the lowest adaptation cost estimates for near-term have already experienced widespread losses and damages climate change (high confidence). Finance has not targeted more attributable to human-induced climate change, including vulnerable countries (high confidence). From 2014–2018 more finance biodiversity loss, water shortages, reduced food production, commitments were debt than grants and—excluding multilateral loss of lives and reduced economic growth (high confidence1). development banks—only 46% of commitments were disbursed {9.1.1, 9.1.6, 9.2, 9.6.1, 9.8.2, 9.10.2, 9.11.1, Box 9.4} (compared to 96% for other development projects). {9.4.1} Between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming—assuming localised Adaptation costs will rise rapidly with global warming (very and incremental adaptation—negative impacts are projected high confidence). Increasing public and private finance flows to become widespread and severe with reduced food by billions of dollars per year, increasing direct access to 9 production, reduced economic growth, increased inequality multilateral funds, strengthening project pipeline development and poverty, biodiversity loss, increased human morbidity and shifting more finance to project implementation would help and mortality (high confidence). Limiting global warming realise transformative adaptation in Africa (high confidence). to 1.5°C is expected to substantially reduce damages to Concessional finance will be required for adaptation in low-income African economies, agriculture, human health, and ecosystems settings (high confidence). Aligning sovereign debt relief with climate compared to higher levels of global warming (high confidence). goals could increase finance by redirecting debt-servicing payments to {9.2, 9.6.2, 9.8.2, 9.8.5, 9.10.2, 9.11.2} climate resilience. {9.4.1} Exposure and vulnerability to climate change in Africa Governance for climate resilient development includes long- are multi-dimensional with socioeconomic, political and term planning, all-of-government approaches, transboundary environmental factors intersecting (very high confidence). cooperation and benefit-sharing, development pathways that Africans are disproportionately employed in climate-exposed sectors: increase adaptation and mitigation and reduce inequality, and 55–62% of the sub-Saharan workforce is employed in agriculture and implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) 95% of cropland is rainfed. In rural Africa, poor and female-headed (high confidence). {9.3.2, 9.4.2, 9.4.3} households face greater livelihood risks from climate hazards. In urban areas, growing informal settlements without basic services increase Cross-sectoral ‘nexus’ approaches provide significant oppor- the vulnerability of large populations to climate hazards, especially tunities for large co-benefits and/or avoided damages (very women, children and the elderly. {9.8.1, 9.9.1, 9.9.3, 9.11.4, Box 9.1} high confidence). For example, climate change adaptation benefits pandemic preparedness, ‘One Health’ approaches benefit human and Adaptation in Africa has multiple benefits, and most assessed ecosystem health, and ecosystem-based adaptation can deliver adap- adaptation options have medium effectiveness at reducing tation and emissions mitigation (high confidence). {9.4.3, 9.6.4, 9.11.5; risks for present-day global warming, but their efficacy at Box 9.6} future warming levels is largely unknown (high confidence). {9.3, 9.6.4, 9.8.3, 9.11.4} Without cross-sectoral, transboundary and long-term planning, adaptation and mitigation response options in one sector can Enabling Climate Resilient Development become response risks, exacerbating impacts in other sectors and causing maladaptation (very high confidence). For example, Climate-related research in Africa faces severe data constraints, maintaining indigenous forest benefits biodiversity and reduces as well as inequities in funding and research leadership that greenhouse gas emissions, but afforestation—or wrongly targeting reduces adaptive capacity (very high confidence). Many countries ancient grasslands and savannas for reforestation—harms water lack regularly reporting weather stations, and data access is often security and biodiversity, and can increase carbon loss to fire and limited. From 1990–2019, research on Africa received just 3.8% of drought. Planned hydropower projects may increase risk as rainfall climate-related research funding globally: 78% of this funding for changes impact water, energy and food security, exacerbating trade- Africa went to EU and north American institutions and only 14.5% to offs between users, including across countries. {9.4.3, Boxes 9.3, 9.5} African institutions. The number of climate research publications with locally based authors are among the lowest globally and research led Robust legislative frameworks that develop or amend laws to by external researchers may focus less on local priorities. Increased mainstream climate change into their empowerment and plan- funding for African partners, and direct control of research design and ning provisions will facilitate effective design and implemen- 1 In this Report, the following summary terms are used to describe the available evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement: low, medium, or high. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence. For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence. 1289 Chapter 9 Africa tation of climate change response options (high confidence). Africa), increasing exposure to pluvial and riverine flooding {9.4.4} (high confidence). {9.5.3–7, 9.7} Climate information services that are demand driven and Glaciers on the Rwenzoris and Mt Kenya are projected to disappear context specific (e.g., for agriculture or health) combined with by 2030, and by 2040 on Kilimanjaro (medium confidence). {9.5.8} climate change literacy can be the difference between coping and informed adaptation responses (high confidence). Across In east and southern Africa, tropical cyclones making landfall 33 African countries, 23–66% of people are aware of human-caused are projected to become less frequent but have more intense climate change—with larger variation at sub-national scales (e.g., rainfall and higher wind speeds at increasing global warming 5–71% among states in Nigeria). Climate change literacy increases (medium confidence). {9.5.7} with education level but is undermined by poverty, and literacy rates average 12.8% lower for women than men. Around 71% of Africans Heat waves on land, in lakes and in the ocean will increase that are aware of climate change agree it should be stopped. Production considerably in magnitude and duration with increasing global of salient climate information in Africa is hindered by limited availability warming (very high confidence). Under a 1.5°C-compatible 9 of and access to weather and climate data. {9.4.5, 9.5.1, 9.8.4, 9.10.3} scenario, children born in Africa in 2020 are likely to be exposed to 4–8  times more heat waves compared to people born in 1960, Ecosystem-based adaptation can reduce climate risk while increasing to 5–10  times for 2.4°C global warming. The annual providing social, economic and environmental benefits (high number of days above potentially lethal heat thresholds reaches 50– confidence). Direct human dependence on ecosystem services in 150 in west Africa at 1.6°C global warming, 100–150 in central Africa Africa is high. Ecosystem protection and restoration, conservation at 2.5°C, and 200–300 over tropical Africa for >4°C. {9.5.2, 9.5.3, agriculture practices, sustainable land management, and integrated 9.5.4, 9.5.5, 9.5.6, 9.7.2.1} catchment management can support climate resilience. Ecosystem- based adaptation can cost less than grey infrastructure in human Most African countries will enter unprecedented high temperature settlements (e.g., using wetlands and mangroves as coastal protection). climates earlier in this century than generally wealthier, higher {9.6.4, 9.7.3, 9.8.3, 9.9.5, 9.12.3, Box 9.7} latitude countries, emphasising the urgency of adaptation measures in Africa (high confidence). {9.5.1} Observed Impacts and Projected Risks Compound risks Climate Multiple African countries are projected to face compounding Increasing mean and extreme temperature trends across risks from reduced food production across crops, livestock Africa are attributable to human-caused climate change (high and fisheries, increased heat-related mortality, heat-related confidence). {9.5.1, 9.5.2} loss of labour productivity and flooding from sea level rise, especially in west Africa (high confidence). {9.8.2, 9.8.5, 9.9.4, Climate change has increased heat waves (high confidence) 9.10.2, 9.11.2} and drought (medium confidence) on land, and doubled the probability of marine heatwaves around most of Africa (high Water confidence). Multi-year droughts have become more frequent in west Africa, and the 2015–2017 Cape Town drought was three times more Recent extreme variability in rainfall and river discharge likely2 due to human-caused climate change. {9.5.3–7, 9.5.10} (around −50% to +50% relative to long-term historical means) across Africa have had largely negative and multi-sector Increases in drought frequency and duration are projected over impacts across water-dependent sectors (high confidence). large parts of southern Africa above 1.5°C global warming {9.7.2, 9.10.2} Hydrological variability and w ater scarcity have induced (high confidence), with decreased precipitation in North Africa cascading impacts from water supply provision and/or hydroelectric at 2°C global warming (high confidence), and above 3°C global power production to health, economies, tourism, food, disaster risk warming, meteorological drought frequency will increase, and response capacity and increased inequality of water access. {Box 9.4} duration will double from approximately 2 months to 4 months in parts of North Africa, the western Sahel and southern Africa Extreme hydrological variability is projected to progressively (medium confidence). {9.5.2, 9.5.3, 9.5.6.} amplify under all future climate change scenarios relative to the current baseline, depending on region (high confidence). Frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events will increase at Projections of numbers of people exposed to water stress by the 2050s all levels of global warming (except in north and southwestern vary widely—decreases/increases by hundreds of millions, with higher numbers for increases—with disagreement among global climate 2 In this Report, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: Virtually certain 99–100% probability, Very likely 90–100%, Likely 66–100%, About as likely as not 33–66%, Unlikely 0–33%, Very unlikely 0–10%, and Exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (Extremely likely: 95–100%, More likely than not >50–100%, and Extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely). This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% probability range. 1290 Africa Chapter 9 models on the major factor driving these large ranges. Populations in Climate change threatens livestock production across drylands are projected to double by 2050. Projected changes present Africa (high agreement, low evidence). Rangeland net primary heightened cross-cutting risks to water-dependent sectors, and require productivity is projected to decline 42% for west Africa by 2050 at 2°C planning under deep uncertainty for the wide range of extremes global warming. Vector-borne livestock diseases and the duration of expected in future. {9.7.1, 9.7.2, 9.9.4} severe heat stress are both projected to become more prevalent under warming. {9.8.2} Economy and livelihoods Climate change poses a significant threat to African marine and Climate change has reduced economic growth across Africa, freshwater fisheries (high confidence). Fisheries provide the main increasing income inequality between African countries source of protein for approximately 200  million people in Africa and and those in temperate northern hemisphere climates (high support the livelihoods of 12.3 million people. At 1.5°C global warming, confidence). One estimate suggests gross domestic product (GDP) marine fish catch potential decreases 3–41%, and decreases by 12–69% per capita for 1991–2010 in Africa was on average 13.6% lower at 4.3°C by 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 levels, with the highest than if climate change had not occurred. Impacts manifest largely declines for tropical countries. Under 1.7°C global warming, reduced fish through losses in agriculture, as well as tourism, manufacturing and harvests could leave 1.2–70 million people in Africa vulnerable to iron 9 infrastructure. {9.6.3, 9.11.1} deficiencies, up to 188 million for vitamin A deficiencies, and 285 million for vitamin B12 and omega-3 fatty acids by mid-century. For inland Climate variability and change undermine educational attainment fisheries, 55–68% of commercially harvested fish species are vulnerable (high agreement, medium evidence). High temperatures, low to extinction under 2.5°C global warming by 2071–2100. {9.8.5} rainfall and flooding, especially in the growing season, may mean children are removed from school to assist income generation. Early life Health undernutrition associated with low harvests or weather-related food supply interruptions can impair cognitive development. {9.11.1.2} Climate variability and change already negatively impacts the health of tens of millions of Africans through exposure to non- Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is very likely to positively optimal temperatures and extreme weather, and increased impact GDP per capita across Africa. Increasing economic damage range and transmission of infectious diseases (high confidence). forecasts under high emissions diverge from low emission pathways {9.10.1} by 2030. Inequalities between African countries are projected to widen with increased warming. Across nearly all African countries, GDP per Mortality and morbidity will escalate with further global capita is projected to be at least 5% higher by 2050 and 10–20% higher warming, placing additional strain on health and economic by 2100 if global warming is held to 1.5°C compared with 2°C. {9.11.2} systems (high confidence). Above 2°C of global warming, distribution and seasonal transmission of vector-borne diseases is expected to Food systems increase, exposing tens of millions more people, mostly in west, east and southern Africa (high confidence). Above 1.5°C risk of heat-related In Africa, climate change is reducing crop yields and productivity deaths rises sharply (medium confidence), with at least 15 additional (high confidence). Agricultural productivity growth has been reduced deaths per 100,000 annually across large parts of Africa, reaching by 34% since 1961 due to climate change, more than any other 50–180 additional deaths per 100,000 people annually in regions region. Maize and wheat yields decreased on average 5.8% and 2.3%, of North, West, and East Africa for 2.5°C, and increasing to 200–600 respectively in sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change in the period per 100,000 people annually for 4.4°C. Above 2°C global warming, 1974–2008. Farmers and pastoralists perceive the climate to have thousands to tens of thousands of additional cases of diarrhoeal changed and over two-thirds of Africans perceive climate conditions for disease are projected, mainly in west, central and east Africa (medium agricultural production have worsened over the past 10 years. Woody confidence). These changes risk undermining improvements in health plant encroachment has reduced fodder availability. {9.4.5, 9.6.1, 9.8.2} from future socioeconomic development (high agreement, medium evidence). {9.10.2, Fig. 9.35} Future warming will negatively affect food systems in Africa by shortening growing seasons and increasing water stress Human settlements (high confidence). By 1.5°C global warming, yields are projected to decline for olives (north Africa) and sorghum (west Africa) with a Exposure of people, assets and infrastructure to climate hazards decline in suitable areas for coffee and tea (east Africa). Although yield is increasing in Africa compounded by rapid urbanisation, declines for some crops may be partially compensated by increasing infrastructure deficit, and growing population in informal atmospheric CO2 concentrations, global warming above 2°C will result settlements (high confidence). in yield reductions for staple crops across most of Africa compared to 2005 yields (e.g., 20–40% decline in west African maize yields), High population growth and urbanisation in low-elevation even when considering adaptation options and increasing CO2 coastal zones will be a major driver of exposure to sea level rise (medium confidence). Relative to 1986–2005, global warming of 3°C in the next 50 years (high confidence). By 2030, 108–116 million is projected to reduce labour capacity in agriculture by 30–50% in sub- people in Africa will be exposed to sea level rise (compared to Saharan Africa. {9.8.2, 9.8.3, 9.11.2} 1291 Chapter 9 Africa 54 million in 2000), increasing to 190–245 million by 2060 (medium and vegetation distributions (high confidence). Impacts include confidence). {9.9.1, 9.9.4} repeated mass coral bleaching events in east Africa, and uphill (birds) or poleward (marine species) shifts in geographic distributions. For Africa’s rapidly growing cities will be hotspots of risks from vegetation, the overall observed trend is woody plant expansion, climate change and climate-induced in-migration, which could particularly into grasslands and savannas, reducing grazing land and amplify pre-existing stresses related to poverty, informality, water supplies. {9.6.1, 9.6.2, 9.8.2} social and economic exclusion, and governance (high confidence). Urban population exposure to extreme heat is projected to increase from The outcome of the effect of the interaction of increasing 2 billion person-days per year in 1985–2005 to 45 billion person-days CO2 and aridity that operate in opposing directions on future by the 2060s (1.7°C global warming with low population growth) and biome distributions is highly uncertain. Further increasing CO2 to 95  billion person-days (2.8°C global warming with medium-high concentrations could increase woody plant cover, but increasing aridity population growth), with greatest exposure in west Africa. Under relatively could counteract this, destabilising forest and peatland carbon stores low population growth scenarios, the sensitive populations (people under in central Africa (low confidence). Changes in vegetation cover could 5 or over 64 years old) in African cities exposed to heat waves of at least occur rapidly if tipping points are crossed {9.6.1, 9.6.2, 9.8.2} 9 15 days above 42°C in African cities is projected to increase from around 27  million in 2010 to 360  million by 2100 for 1.8°C global warming African biodiversity loss is projected to be widespread and (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1 (SSP1)) and 440  million (SSP5) for escalating with every 0.5°C increase above present-day global >4°C global warming. Compared to 2000, urbanisation is projected to warming (high confidence). Above 1.5°C, half of assessed species increase urban land extent exposed to arid conditions by around 700% are projected to lose over 30% of their population or area of suitable and exposure to high-frequency flooding by 2600% across west, central habitat. At 2°C, 36% of freshwater fish species are vulnerable to and east Africa by 2030. {9.9.1, 9.9.2, 9.9.4, Box 9.8} local extinction, 7–18% of terrestrial species assessed are at risk of extinction, and over 90% of east African coral reefs are projected Migration to be destroyed by bleaching. Above 2°C, risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses becomes widespread in west, central and east Most climate-related migration observed currently is within Africa. Climate change is also projected to change patterns of invasive countries or between neighbouring countries, rather than to species spread. {9.6.2, Figure 9.19} distant high-income countries (high confidence). Urbanisation has increased when rural livelihoods were negatively impacted by low rainfall. Climate security Over 2.6  million and 3.4  million new weather-related displacements occurred in sub-Saharan Africa in 2018 and 2019. {Box 9.8} There is increasing evidence linking increased temperatures and drought to conflict risk in Africa (high confidence). Climate change is projected to increase migration, especially Agriculturally dependent and politically excluded groups are internal and rural to urban migration (high agreement, medium especially vulnerable to drought-associated conflict risk. However, evidence). With 1.7°C global warming by 2050, 17–40 million people climate is one of many interacting risk factors, and may explain could migrate internally in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing to 56– a small share of total variation in conflict incidence. Ameliorating 86 million for 2.5°C (>60% in west Africa) due to water stress, reduced ethnic tensions, strengthening political institutions and investing in crop productivity and sea level rise. This is a lower-bound estimate economic diversification could mitigate future impacts of climate excluding rapid-onset hazards such as floods and tropical cyclones. change on conflict. {Box 9.9} {Box 9.8} Heritage Infrastructure African cultural heritage is already at risk from climate hazards, Climate-related infrastructure damage and repairs will be a including sea level rise and coastal erosion. Most African financially significant burden to countries (high confidence). heritage sites are neither prepared for, nor adapted to, future Without adaptation, aggregate damages from sea level rise and coastal climate change (high confidence). {9.12} extremes to 12 major African coastal cities in 2050 under medium and high emissions scenarios will be USD 65 billion and USD 86.5 billion, Adaptation respectively. Potential costs of up to USD  183.6  billion may be incurred through 2100 to maintain existing road networks damaged With global warming increasing above present-day levels, the from temperature and precipitation changes due to climate change. ability of adaptation responses to offset risk is substantially Increased rainfall variability is expected to affect electricity prices in reduced (high confidence). Crop yield losses, even after adaptation, countries highly dependent on hydropower. {9.9.4, Boxes 9.4, 9.5} are projected to rise rapidly above 2°C global warming. Limits to adaptation are already being reached in coral reef ecosystems. Ecosystems Immigration of species from elsewhere may partly compensate for local extinctions and/or lead to local biodiversity gains in some regions. Increasing CO2 levels and climate change are destroying marine However, more African regions face net losses than net gains. At 1.5°C biodiversity, reducing lake productivity, and changing animal 1292 Africa Chapter 9 global warming, over 46% of localities face net losses in terrestrial scenario planning, monitored groundwater use, waterless on- vertebrate species richness with net increases projected for under 15% site sanitation, rainwater harvesting and water re-use, reducing of localities. {9.6.1.4, 9.6.2.2, 9.8.2.1, 9.8.2.2, 9.8.4} risk to human settlements, food systems, economies and human health (high confidence). {9.8, 9.9, 9.10, 9.11} Technological, institutional and financing factors are major barriers to climate adaptation feasibility in Africa (high con- Water sector adaptation measures show medium social and fidence). {9.3, 9.4.1} economic feasibility but low feasibility for most African cities due to technical and institutional restrictions, particularly for There is limited evidence for economic growth alone reducing large supply dams and centralised distribution systems (medium climate damages, but under scenarios of inclusive and sustainable confidence). {9.3.1, 9.7.3} Use of integrated water management, development, millions fewer people in Africa will be pushed water supply augmentation and establishment of decentralised water into extreme poverty by climate change and negative impacts management systems can reduce risk. Integrated water management to health and livelihoods can be reduced by 2030 (medium measures including sub-national financing, demand management confidence). {9.10.3, 9.11.4} through subsidies, rates and taxes, and sustainable water technologies can reduce water insecurity caused by either drought or floods (medium 9 Gender-sensitive and equity-based adaptation approaches reduce confidence). {9.7.3, Box 9.4} vulnerability for marginalised groups across multiple sectors in Africa, including water, health, food systems and livelihoods Agricultural and livelihood diversification, agroecological (high confidence). {9.7.3, 9.8.3, 9.9.5, 9.10.3, 9.11.4, Boxes 9.1, 9.2} and conservation agriculture practices, aquaculture, on-farm engineering and agroforestry can increase resilience and Integrating climate adaptation into social protection pro- sustainability of food systems in Africa under climate change grammes, such as cash transfers, public works programmes and (medium confidence). However, smallholder farmers tend to address healthcare access, can increase resilience to climate change short-term shocks or stresses by deploying coping responses rather (high confidence). Nevertheless, social protection programmes may than transformative adaptations. Climate information services, increase resilience to climate-related shocks, even if they do not spe- institutional capacity building, secure land tenure, and strategic cifically address climate risks. {9.4.2, 9.10.3, 9.11.4} financial investment can help overcome these barriers to adaptation (medium confidence). {9.3.1, 9.4.5, 9.8.3, 9.8.5} The diversity of African Indigenous Knowledge and local knowl- edge systems provide a rich foundation for adaptation actions African countries and communities are inadequately insured at local scales (high confidence). African Indigenous Knowledge against climate risk, but innovative index-based insurance systems are exceptionally rich in ecosystem-specific knowledge used schemes can help transfer risk and aid recovery, including for management of climate variability. Integration of Indigenous in food systems (medium confidence). Despite their potential, Knowledge systems within legal frameworks, and promotion of In- uptake of climate insurance products remains constrained by lack of digenous land tenure rights can reduce vulnerability. {9.4.4, Boxes affordability, awareness and product diversity. {9.4.5, 9.8.4, 9.11.4.1} 9.1, 9.2} Human migration is a potentially effective adaptation strategy Early warning systems based on targeted climate services across food systems, water, livelihoods and in climate-induced can be effective for disaster risk reduction, social protection conflict areas, but can also be maladaptive if vulnerability is programmes, and managing risks to health and food systems increased, particularly for health and human settlements (high (e.g., vector-borne disease and crops) (high confidence). {9.4.5, confidence). Migration of men from rural areas can aggravate the 9.5.1, Box 9.2, 9.8.4, 9.8.5, 9.10.3, 9.11.4} work burden faced by women. The more agency migrants have (i.e., degree of voluntarity and freedom of movement) the greater the Risk-sensitive infrastructure delivery and equitable provision potential benefits for sending and receiving areas (high agreement, of basic services can reduce climate risks and provide net medium evidence).{9.3, 9.8.3, 9.9.1–3, 9.10.2.2.2, Boxes 9.8, 9.9, financial savings (high confidence). However, there is limited Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7} evidence of proactive climate adaptation in African cities. Proactive adaptation policy could reduce road repair and maintenance costs by 74% compared to a reactive policy. Adapting roads for increased temperatures and investment in public transport are assessed as ‘no regret’ options. In contrast, hydropower development carries risk of regrets due to damages when a different climate than was expected materialises. Energy costs for cooling demands are projected to accumulate to USD 51.3 billion by 2035 at 2°C global warming and to USD 486.5 billion by 2076 at 4°C. {9.8.5} Reduced drought and flood risk, and improved water and sanitation access, can be delivered by water sensitive and climate 1293 Chapter 9 Africa 9.1 Introduction The five regions of Africa used in Chapter 9 9.1.1 Point of Departure This chapter assesses the scientific evidence on observed and projected climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation options in Africa. The assessment refers to five African sub-regions—north, west, central, east and southern—closely following the African Union (AU), but including Mauritania in west Africa and Sudan in north Africa because much of the literature assessed places these countries in these regions (Figure 9.1). Madagascar and other island states are addressed in Chapter 15. Estimated population density in 2019 The contribution of Africa is among the lowest of historical greenhouse Number of people per km2 9 gas (GHG) emissions responsible for human-induced climate change >10,000 and it has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions currently 5,001–10,000 (high confidence) (Figure  9.2). Yet Africa has already experienced 2,501–5,000 1,001–12,500 widespread impacts from human-induced climate change (high 501–1,000 confidence) (Figure 9.2; see Table 9.1). 101–500 51–100 21–50 Since AR5 (Assessment Report 5), there have been notable policy 11–20 changes in Africa and globally. The Paris Agreement, 2030 Sustainable 5–10 <5 Development Goals (SDGs), the Sendai Framework and Agenda 2063 emphasise interlinked aims to protect the planet, reduce disaster risk, end poverty and ensure all people enjoy peace and prosperity (AU, Figure 9.1 |  The five regions of Africa used in this chapter, also showing 2015; UNFCCC Paris Agreement, 2015; UNISDR Sendai Framework, estimated population density in 2019. The population of Africa was estimated 2015; United Nations General Assembly, 2015). To match these at 1.312 billion for 2020, which is about 17% of the world’s population but this is interlinked ambitions, this chapter assesses risks and response options projected to grow to around 40% of the world’s population by 2100 (UNDESA, 2019a). Although 57% of the African population currently live in rural areas (43% urban), Africa both for individual sectors and cross-sectorally to assess how risks is the most rapidly urbanising region globally and is projected to transition to a majority can compound and cascade across sectors, as well as the potential urban population in the 2030s, with a 60% urban population by 2050 (UNDESA, feasibility and effectiveness, co-benefits and trade-offs and potential for 2019b). The 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in constant 2010 USD maladaptation from response options (Simpson et al., 2021b; Williams averaged USD  2250 across the 43  countries reporting data, ranging from USD  202 et al., 2021). (Burundi) to USD 8840 (Gabon), with 40% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa living below the international poverty line of USD 1.90 per day in 2018 (World Bank, 2019). The highest life expectancy at birth is 67 (Botswana and Senegal) and the lowest is 52 (Central African Republic) World Bank (2019). Grid-cell population density data for 9.1.2 Major Conclusions from Previous Assessments mapping are from Tatem (2017); WorldPop (2021). Based on an analysis of 1022 mentions of Africa or African countries across the three AR6 Special Reports, the following main conclusions pollutants are projected from further warming (IPCC, 2018c; Shukla emerged. et al., 2019). • The largest reductions in economic growth for an increase from • Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent; 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming are projected for low- and middle- heatwaves have also become longer (high confidence). Drying income countries, including in Africa (IPCC, 2018c). is projected particularly for west and southwestern Africa (high • Climate change interacts with multi-dimensional poverty, among confidence) (IPCC, 2018c; Shukla et al., 2019). other vulnerabilities. Africa is projected to bear an increasing • Climate change is contributing to land degradation, loss of proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population at 2°C biodiversity, bush encroachment and spread of pests and invasive and 3°C of global warming (IPCC, 2018c). species (IPCC, 2018b; IPCC, 2019a; IPCC, 2019b). • Poverty and limited financing continue to undermine adaptive • Climate change has already reduced food security through losses capacity, particularly in rapidly growing African cities (Shukla et al., in crop yields, rangelands, livestock and fisheries, deterioration in 2019). food nutritional quality, access and distribution, and price spikes. • Large-scale afforestation and bioenergy can reduce food Risks to crop yields are substantially less at 1.5°C compared with availability and ecosystem health (IPCC, 2018c; IPCC, 2019a). 2°C of global warming, with a large reduction in maize cropping • Transitioning to renewable energy would reduce reliance on wood areas projected even for 1.5°C, as well as reduced fisheries catch fuel and charcoal, especially in urban areas, with co-benefits potential (IPCC, 2018b; IPCC, 2019b; IPCC, 2019a). including reduced deforestation, desertification, fire risk and • Increased deaths from undernutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, heat stress improved indoor air quality, local development and agricultural and diseases related to exposure to dust, fire smoke and other air yield (Shukla et al., 2019). 1294 Africa Chapter 9 Historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends for Africa compared to other world regions (a) Regional per capita GHG emissions (b) Regional GHG emission trends Asia Africa 25 North America Asia 20 Australasia Europe Central and 15 Africa S. America 1990 Europe 10 Central and South America 2019 North America Region Australasia average 5 Small Islands Single Small Islands countries 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 1990 2000 2010 2019 GHG Emissions per capita (tCO₂eq/capita) 9 (c) Country GHG emissions (Africa) (d) Total GHG emissions by gas and sector (Africa) South Africa Nigeria 3 Egypt, Arab Rep. CH₄ Agriculture Algeria Ethiopia Buildings Sudan 2 Morocco Kenya Energy Angola CO₂ systems Libya Tanzania 1 Chad Industry Uganda 1990 Congo, Dem. Rep. 2019 N₂O Transport Tunisia 0 0 200 400 600 1990 2000 2010 2019 1990 2000 2010 2019 GHG Emissions (MtCO₂eq) Figure 9.2 |  Historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends for Africa compared to other world regions: (a) Per person GHG emissions by region and their change from 1990 to 2019 (circles represent countries, diamonds represent the region average). (b) Total GHG emissions by region since 1990. (c) The total GHG emissions in 1990 and 2019 for the 15 highest emitting countries within Africa. (d) Total emissions in Africa since 1990, broken down by GHG (left) and sector (right). Methane and CO2 emissions comprise an almost equal share of GHG emissions in Africa, with the largest emissions sectors being energy and agriculture (Crippa et al., 2021). Agriculture emissions in panel (d) do not include land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF CO2). One-hundred-year global warming potentials consistent with WGI estimates are used. Emissions data are from Crippa et al. (2021), compiled in Working Group III (WGIII) Chapter 2. • Sustainable use of biodiversity, conservation agriculture, reduced 9.1.3 What’s New on Africa in AR6? deforestation, land and watershed restoration, rainwater harvesting and well-planned reforestation can have multiple • Increased confidence in observed and projected changes in climate benefits for adaptation and mitigation, including water security, hazards, including heat and precipitation food security, biodiversity, soil conservation and local surface • Increased regional, national and sub-national observed impacts cooling (IPBES, 2018; Shukla et al., 2019). and projected risks • Climate resilience can be enhanced through improvements to • Loss and damage assessment early warning systems, insurance, investment in safety nets, secure • Increased quantification of projected risks at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and land tenure, transport infrastructure, communication, access to 4°C of global warming (see Section 9.2; Figure 9.6) information and investments in education and strengthened local • Improved assessment of sea level rise risk (Sections 9.9; 9.12) governance (Shukla et al., 2019). • Increased quantification of risk across all sectors assessed • Scenarios of socio-environmental change are under-used in • Expanded assessment of adaptation feasibility and effectiveness decision making in Africa (IPBES, 2018). and limits to adaptation (see Figure 9.7) • Africa’s rich biodiversity together with a wealth of Indigenous • Assessment of adaptation finance (Section 9.4.1) Knowledge and Local Knowledge (IKLK) is a key strategic asset for • Increased assessment of how climate risk and adaptation and sustainable development (IPBES, 2018). mitigation response options are interlinked across multiple key development sectors (Section 9.4.3; Boxes 9.4; 9.5). 1295 GHG Emissions (Gt CO2eq/year) GHG Emissions (Gt CO2eq) Chapter 9 Africa Funding for climate-related research on Africa is a very small proportion of global climate-related research funding (a) Funding for climate research on Africa and on whole world (b) Percentage of total research funding spent on climate research 3500 12% Africa Million 3000 World Climate 10% Africa 2015 2500 research World USD funding as 8% 2000 percentage of general 6% 1500 research 1000 funding 4% 500 2% 9 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 (c) Countries financing Africa-related climate research (d) Top 10 country locations of institutions receiving funding for before and after the Paris Agreement, million 2010 USD climate change research on Africa, 1990–2020, million 2010 USD UK United States EU USA United Kingdom Germany Germany Sweden Sweden Norway France France Canada Netherlands Finland Norway Switzerland China Italy Poland Kenya Japan South Africa 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990–2015, Total 2016–2020, Total (e) Distribution of funding across risk categories, 1990–2020 (f) Funding for climate impact, mitigation and adaptation research on Africa 140 120 Million Mitigation 2010 100 17% Other climate change research (3%) USD 80 Impact 60 40% 40 20 Adaptation 40% 0 Food Eco- Fresh- Health Poverty Cities/ Security systems systems water and urban and livelihoods areas conflict Figure 9.3 |  Climate-related research on Africa has received a very small percentage (around 4%) of global climate research funding (a). (b) As a percentage of all research funding allocated to a region, climate research has, since 2010, made up 5% of Africa-related research funding compared to a 3% share for climate research in global research funding. (c) Major funders are the UK, EU, USA, Germany and Sweden. (d) Most funding for climate-related research on Africa flows to institutions based in Europe and the USA. Funding comes mainly from government organisations with private philanthropy providing only around 1% (Overland et al., 2021). (e) Africa-related climate research funding focuses mostly on food systems, ecosystems and freshwater, while health, poverty, security and conflict, and urban areas have received the least. (f) Research on climate mitigation received only 17% of funding while climate impacts and adaptation each received 40%. A greater proportion of Africa-focused climate funding has gone to social sciences and humanities (28%) than is the case globally (12%) (Overland et al., 2021). Data are from an analysis of 4,458,719 research grants in the Dimensions database with a combined value of USD 1.51 trillion awarded by 521 funding organisations globally (Overland et al. 2021). The Dimensions database is the world’s largest database on research funding flows (Overland et al. 2021). It draws on official data from all major funding organisations in the world, mainly government research councils or similar institutions. Note: The South African National Research Foundation is the only African research funding body that is sufficiently large to be included in Dimensions. 1296 Africa Chapter 9 Major gaps in climate change research funding, participation and publication exist within Africa, and for Africa compared to the rest of the world (a) Climate change research funding focused on African countries (b) Climate change studies with locally-based authors Funding amount Percentage 9 in USD millions of studies with (1990–2020) locally-based authors 51 61% 41–50 41–60% 31–40 21–40% 21–30 1–20% 11–20 0 1–10 No data (c) Climate change adaptation research focused on individual countries Adaptation research on individual countries (number of papers) >1,000 601–1,000 401–600 201–400 101–200 1–100 No data Figure 9.4 |  Major gaps in climate change research funding, participation and publication exist within Africa, and for Africa compared to the rest of the world. (a) Funding: Amount of climate change research funding focused on African countries 1990–2020 (Overland et al., 2021). Considering population size, research on Egypt and Nigeria stands out as particularly underfinanced. (b) Participation: Percentage of peer-reviewed climate change papers on impacts and adaptation published on a given country that also include at least one author based in that country (Pasgaard et al. 2015). (c) Number of publications of climate change adaptation research focused on individual countries identified from a global sample of 62,191 adaptation-relevant peer-reviewed articles published from 1988–2020 (Sietsma et  al., 2021). There is a general lack of adaptation-related research on many vulnerable countries in Africa. Topic biases in adaptation-relevant research also exist where research focuses more on disaster and development-related topics in global south countries (but published by authors from the global north), while research on global north countries focuses more on governance topics (Sietsma et al., 2021). 1297 Chapter 9 Africa 9.1.4 Climate Change Impacts Across Africa Climate impacts on human and natural systems are widespread across Africa, as are climate trends In many parts of southern, east and west Africa, temperature or attributable to human-caused climate change precipitation trends since the 1950s are attributable to human- caused climate change and several studies document the impacts of Attributable to Human Climate induced climate change these climate trends on human and natural systems (high confidence) trends (Figure  9.5; Sections  9.5.6; 9.5.7). Nevertheless, research into Attributable to other causes attribution of trends to human-caused climate change or climate Low High Robust impacts remains scarce for multiple regions, especially in north and Evidence for climate impacts central Africa. This illustrates an ‘attribution gap’ where robust evidence for attributable impacts is twice as prevalent in high- compared to low-income countries globally (Callaghan et al., 2021). Most studies on climate impacts in Africa have focused on terrestrial ecosystems or water, with fewer on marine ecosystems, agriculture, migration, and 9 health and well-being (Callaghan et al., 2021). Specific factors driving these knowledge gaps include limited data collection, data access and research funding for African researchers (see next section). 9.1.5 Climate Data and Research Gaps Across Africa Since AR5, there have been rapid advances in climate impact research due to increased computing power, data access and new developments in statistical analysis (Carleton and Hsiang, 2016). However, sparse and intermittent weather station data limit attribution of climate trends to human-caused climate change for large areas of Africa, especially for precipitation and extreme events, and hinder more accurate climate change projections (Section 9.5.2; Figure 9.5; Otto et al., 2020). Outside of South Africa and Kenya, digitally accessible data on biodiversity is limited (Meyer et al., 2015). Lack of comprehensive socioeconomic data also limits researchers’ ability to predict climate change impacts. Ideally, multiple surveys over time are needed to identify effects of a location’s changing climate on changing socioeconomic conditions. Twenty-five African countries conducted only one nationally representative survey that could be used to construct measures of poverty during 2000–2010 Temperature or precipitation Temperature and precipitation and 14 conducted none over this period (Jean et al., 2016). Because of these challenges, much of what is known about climate impacts Figure  9.5 |   Observed climate change impacts on human and natural systems are widespread across Africa, as are climate trends attributable and risks in Africa relies on evidence from global studies that use to human-induced climate change. This machine-learning-assisted evidence map data largely from outside Africa (e.g., Zhao et al., 2021). These studies shows the presence of historical trends in temperature and precipitation attributable to generate estimates of average impacts across the globe, but may not human-induced climate change (pinks compared to greys) and the amount of evidence have the statistical power to distinguish whether African nations display (shown by intensity of colours) documenting the impacts of these climate trends on differential vulnerability, exposure or adaptive capacity. In sections human and natural systems (e.g., ecosystems, agriculture, health) across Africa. ‘Robust’ indicates more than five studies documented impacts per grid cell. A ‘High’ amount of of this chapter, we have relied, when necessary, on such studies, as evidence indicates more than 20 studies documented impacts for a grid cell. Climate they often provide best available evidence for Africa. Increasing data impact studies from the literature were identified and categorised using machine coverage and availability would increase the ability to discern important learning. A language representation model was trained on a set of 2373 climate impact differences in risk both among and within African countries. studies coded by hand. This supervised machine learning model identified 102,160 published studies predicted to be relevant for climate impacts globally; references to places in Africa were found in 5081 studies (5% of global studies). Temperature trends Climate-related research in Africa faces severe funding constraints were calculated from 1951–2018 and precipitation from 1951–2016. Attribution of with unequal funding relationships between countries and with climate trends to human induced climate change is limited in some regions of Africa research partners in Europe and North America (high confidence). due to insufficient data (see Section 9.5.1, Figure 9.15). Hatching shows regions where Based on analysis of over 4  million research grants from 521 trends in both temperature and precipitation are attributable to human-induced climate funding organisations globally, it is estimated that, from 1990–2020, change. Data from Callaghan et al. (2021). USD  1.26  billion funded Africa-related research on climate impacts, mitigation and adaptation. This represents only 3.8% of global funding climate research originates outside Africa and goes to research for climate-related research—a figure incommensurate with Africa’s institutions outside Africa (Blicharska et  al., 2017; Bendana, 2019; high vulnerability to climate change (see Figure 9.3; Box 9.1; Chapter 8 Siders, 2019; Overland et al., 2021). From 1990–2020, 78% of funding Figure 8.6; Overland et al., 2021). Almost all funding for Africa-related for Africa-related climate research flowed to institutions in Europe 1298 Africa Chapter 9 and the USA—only 14.5% flowed to institutions in Africa (Figure 9.3; Key risks for Africa Overland et al., 2021). Kenya (2.3% of total funding) and South Africa increase with increasing global warming (2.2%) are the only African countries among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of hosting institutions receiving funding for climate- 4°C related research on Africa (Overland et al., 2021). 3°C ••• These unequal funding relations influence inequalities in climate-related research design, participation and dissemination between African 2°C ••• ••• researchers and researchers from high-income countries outside Africa, in 1.5 °C ••• ••• •• ways that can reduce adaptive capacity in Africa (very high confidence). 1°C •• Recent Those empowered to shape research agendas can shape research ••• ••• climate (2010–2020) answers: climate research agendas, skills gaps and eligible researchers 0°C are frequently defined by funding agencies, often from a global north Biodiversity Mortality and Reduced perspective (Vincent et  al., 2020a). Larger funding allocations for loss and morbidity from food production ecosystem heat and from crops research focused on Ghana, South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia disruption infectious fisheries 9 are reflected in higher concentrations of empirical research on impacts disease and livestock and adaptation options in these countries, and there is a general lack of adaptation research for multiple of the most vulnerable countries in Level of Confidence level Africa (Figure 9.4) (Callaghan et al., 2021; Overland et al., 2021; Sietsma impact or risk for transiti•o•n•• et al., 2021; Vincent and Cundill, 2021). The combination of northern-led Very high Very high ••• High High identification of both knowledge and skills gaps can result in projects •• Moderate Medium where African partners are positioned primarily as recipients engaged Undetectable Transition • range Low to support research and/or have their ‘capacity built’ rather than also leading research projects on an equal basis (Vincent et al., 2020a; Trisos et al., 2021). Analysis of >15,000 climate change publications found for Figure  9.6 |   Risks increase with increasing levels of global warming, as shown by this Burning Embers figure for selected key risks from climate over 75% of African countries 60–100% of climate change publications change in Africa. Increases in risk are assessed for the levels of global warming above on these countries did not include a single local author, with authorship pre-industrial (1850–1900). All three risks are assessed to have already transitioned to dominated by researchers from richer countries outside Africa (Pasgaard moderate risk by the recent level of global warming 2010–2020 (1.09°C). Risks are et al., 2015). This can reduce adaptive capacity in Africa as researchers characterised as undetectable, moderate, high, or very high, and the transition between at global north institutions may shape research questions and outputs risk levels as a function of global warming is represented by the colour change of each bar (IPCC, 2021). Vertical lines show the range of global warming for a change in the for a northern audience rather than providing actionable insights on risk level. The dots indicate the confidence level for a given transition in risk and are priority issues for African partners (Pasgaard et  al., 2015; Nago and placed at the level of global warming that is the assessed best estimate for that increase Krott, 2020). Moreover, in order to access research publications in a in the risk level. For the range of global warming levels for each risk transition used to timely manner, many researchers in Africa are forced to use shadow make this figure see Supplementary Material Table SM 9.1. websites bypassing journal paywalls (Bohannon, 2016). Ways to enhance research partnerships to produce actionable insights on climate United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) impacts and solutions in Africa include: increased funding from African as stated in its Article 2 (Oppenheimer et al., 2014). The process for and non-African sources, increasing direct control of resources for identifying key risks for Africa included reviewing risks from Niang African partners, having African research and user priorities set research et  al. (2014) and assessing new evidence on observed impacts and questions, identify skills gaps, and lead research, and having open access projected risks in this chapter. policies for research outputs (ESPA Directorate, 2018; Vogel et al., 2019; Vincent et al., 2020a; IDRC, 2021; Trisos et al., 2021). Several key risks were identified for both ecosystems and people including species extinction and ecosystem disruption, loss of food production, reduced economic output and increased poverty, increased 9.1.6 Loss and Damage from Climate Change disease and loss of human life, increased water and energy insecurity, loss of natural and cultural heritage and compound extreme events Assessment of impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation highlights climate harming human settlements and critical infrastructure (Table 9.2). In change is leading to loss and damage across Africa, that breach current order to provide a sector- and continent-level perspective, the key risks and projected adaptation limits (Table 9.1; Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in aggregate across different regions and combine multiple risks within Chapter 17). sectors. For detailed assessments of observed impacts and future risks within each sector and each sub-region of Africa, see the sector-specific sections of this chapter (Sections 9.6 to 9.12). 9.2 Key Risks for Africa Several expert elicitation workshops of lead and contributing authors A key risk is defined as a potentially severe risk. In line with AR5, were held to develop ‘burning embers’ assessing how risk increases ‘severity’ relates to dangerous anthropogenic interference with the with further global warming for a subset of key risks, specifically risk climate system, the prevention of which is the ultimate objective of the of food production losses, risk of biodiversity loss and risk of mortality 1299 Global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial Chapter 9 Africa Table 9.1 |   Loss and damage from climate change across sectors covered in this report. Loss and damage arise from adverse climate-related impacts and risks from both sudden-onset events, such as floods and cyclones, and slower-onset processes, including droughts, sea level rise, glacial retreat and desertification and include both include both economic (e.g., loss of assets and crops) and non-economic types (e.g., loss of biodiversity, heritage and health) (UNFCCC Paris Agreement, 2015; IPCC, 2018a; Mechler et al., 2020). Sections marked with * and in bold highlight Loss and Damage attributed to human-induced climate change (16.1.3). Sector Loss and damage from climate change Observed Projected Local, regional and global extinction 9.6.2 9.6.2 Reduced ecosystem goods and services 9.6.1; 9.6.2 9.6.2 Declining natural coastal protection and habitats 9.6.1; 9.6.2 Ecosystems 9.6.2 Altered ecosystem structure and declining ecosystem functioning 9.6.1 9.6.2 Nature-based tourism 9.6.3 9.6.3 Biodiversity loss 9.6.2* Declining lake and river resources 9.7.1 9.7.2 Reduced hydroelectricity and irrigation 9.7.2; 9.9.1 9.7.2; 9.9.3; Box 9.5 Water Disappearing glaciers 9.5.9*; 9.7.1 9.5.9 Reduced groundwater recharge and salinisation – 9.7.2 Drought Box 9.4* 9 Reduced crop productivity and revenues 9.7.2*, 9.8.1; 9.8.2; 9.11.1; Box 9.5 9.8.2; 9.8.3; Box 9.5 Increased livestock mortality and price shocks 9.8.2 9.8.2 Food systems Decreased fodder and pasture availability 9.8.2 9.8.2 Reduced fisheries catch and fisher livelihoods 9.6.1; 9.8.5 9.8.5 Loss or damage to formal and informal dwellings 9.9.2 9.9.4 Damage to transport systems 9.9.2 9.9.4 Human settlements and Damage to energy systems 9.9.2 9.7.2; 9.9.4 infrastructure Water supply, sanitation, education and health infrastructure 9.9.2; 9.10; 9.11.1 9.7.3; 9.9.4; 9.10; 9.11.1 Migration 9.9.1; Box 9.8 9.9.4; Box 9.8 Loss of life 9.9.2*; 9.10.2; Box 9.9 9.9.4; 9.10.2 Health Loss of productivity 9.10.3; 9.11.1 9.10.2; 9.11.2 Reduced nutrition 9.8.1; 9.10.2 9.10.2 Loss of livelihoods, jobs and income 9.9.2; 9.10.2; 9.11.1 9.10.2; 9.11.2 Reduced productive land 9.8.2 9.8.2 Reduced economic growth and increased inequality 9.11.1*; Box 9.5 9.11.2 Economy, poverty and Community and involuntary displacement 9.9.3; Box 9.8 9.9.4; Box 9.8 livelihoods Reduced labour productivity and earning potential 9.11.1 9.11.2 Delayed and poorer education progress 9.11.1 9.11.1 Reduced tourism 9.6.3 9.5.9, 9.6.3, 9.12.2 Increased urban in-migration 9.8.1; 9.9.1; Table Box 9.8 9.9.4; Table Box 9.8 Loss of traditional cultures and ways of life Box 9.2; 9.12.1 9.12.2 Heritage Loss of language and knowledge systems – 9.12.1 Damage to heritage sites 9.12.1 9.12.2 and morbidity from heat and infectious disease (Figure 9.6). These key 9.8.2.2) and reduced fisheries catches due to increased temperatures, risks were selected in part because of underlying assessment work in especially in tropical regions (Section 9.8.2). For health, climate change the chapter to connect multiple studies to observed impacts and/or impacts include increased mortality and morbidity from changes in the risk at increasing global warming levels (Sections 9.6.2; 9.8.2; 9.8.5.2; distribution and incidence of malaria and cholera and the direct effects 9.10.2). of increasing temperatures (Section 9.10.2). All three of these key risks are assessed to have already transitioned In scenarios with low adaptation (that is largely localised and completely into moderate risk—that is, negative impacts have been incremental), the transition to high risk—widespread and severe detected and attributed to climate change—before the 2010–2020 impacts—has already begun at the current level of global warming level of global warming (1.09°C) above pre-industrial times (IPCC, for biodiversity loss (high confidence), and begins below 1.5°C global 2021), with medium confidence for increased mortality and morbidity warming for both food production (medium confidence) and mortality and high confidence for losses of food productivity and biodiversity and morbidity from heat and infectious disease (high confidence). (Figure  9.6). For biodiversity, these impacts include repeated mass Across all risks, the best estimate for the transition to high risk is at die-offs of coral reefs due to marine heat (Section 9.6.1.4), reductions 1.5°C of global warming, with transition to high risk completing before in lake productivity due to warming (Section  9.6.1.3), and woody 2°C (Figure 9.6). Projected impacts considered high risk around 1.5°C encroachment of grasslands and savannas due to increased atmospheric include: across more than 90% of Africa, more than 10% of species are CO2 concentrations (Section  9.6.1.1), with negative impacts on at risk of local extinction (Figure 9.6; Table 9.1); the further expansion livelihoods (Section  9.6.2). For food production, climate change of woody plants into grass-dominated biomes (Section 9.6.2.1); 9% impacts include up to 5.8% mean reduction in maize productivity due declines in maize yield for west Africa and 20–60% decline in wheat to increased temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa (Sections  9.8.2.1; yield for southern and northern Africa, as well as declines in coffee 1300 Africa Chapter 9 and tea in east Africa and sorghum in west Africa (Figures 9.22; 9.23; 9.3 Climate Adaptation Options Sections 9.8.2.1; 9.8.2.2), and >12% decline in marine fisheries catch potential for multiple west African countries, potentially leaving 9.3.1 Adaptation Feasibility and Effectiveness millions at risk of nutritional deficiencies (Figure 9.25; Section 9.8.5); tens of millions more people exposed to vector-borne diseases in east Based on a systematic assessment of observed climate adaptation and southern Africa (malaria), and north, east and southern Africa responses in the scientific literature covering 827 adaptation response (dengue, zika), increased risk of malnutrition in central, east and west types in 553 studies (2013–2021), and expert elicitation process, 24 Africa, and more than 15 additional deaths per 100,000 annually due categories of adaptation responses in Africa were identified (Williams to heat in parts of west, east and north Africa (Figures  9.32; 9.35; et  al., 2021; Figure  9.7). This assessment excluded autonomous Sections 9.10.2; 9.9.4.1). adaptation in ecosystems, such as migration and evolution of animal and plant species. The transition from high to very high risk—that is severe and widespread impacts with limited ability to adapt—begins either at or At the current global warming level, 83% of adaptation response just below 2°C for all three risks (Figure 9.6). The assessed temperature categories assessed showed medium potential for risk reduction range for the transition to very high risk is wider for food production (that is, mixed evidence of effectiveness). Bulk water infrastructure 9 than for biodiversity and health. Projected impacts for food include: (including managed aquifer recharge, dams, pipelines, pump stations, 10–30% decline in marine fisheries catch potential for the Horn of water treatment plants and distribution networks), human migration, Africa region and southern Africa and more than 30% decline for west financial investment for sustainable agriculture, and social infrastructure Africa at 2°C global warming, with greater declines at higher levels (including decentralised management, strong community structures of warming (Section  9.8.2). Beyond 2°C global warming, over 50% and informal support networks) show high potential for risk reduction of commercially important freshwater fish species across Africa are (high evidence of option’s effectiveness)  (Sections  9.6.4; 9.7.3; Boxes projected to be vulnerable to extinction (Figure  9.26). Between 2°C 9.8; 9.9; 9.10; 9.11). However, there was limited evidence to assess and 4°C, wheat, maize and rice yields are projected, on average, to be the continued effectiveness of these options at higher global warming lower than 2005 yields across all regions of Africa. From 2°C global levels (Williams et  al., 2021) with some options, such as bulk water warming, over 40% losses in rangeland productivity are projected for infrastructure (particularly large dams), expected to face increasing risk western Africa. By 3.75°C, severe heat stress may be near year-round with continued warming with damages cascading to other sectors (see for cattle across tropical Africa (Figure 9.24). Multiple countries in west, Box 9.5), while others, such as crop irrigation and adjusting planting central and east Africa are projected to be at risk from simultaneous times, may increasingly reach adaptation limits above 1.5°C and 2°C negative impacts on crops, fisheries and livestock (Sections  9.8.2; global warming (Sections 9.8.3; 9.8.4). 9.8.5; Thiault et al., 2019). The majority of adaptation studies were in west and east Africa The best estimate for the onset of very high risk for biodiversity and (Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania), followed by southern Africa, health is at 2.1°C. Projected impacts considered very high risk for with the least coming from central and north Africa (Figure  9.7; biodiversity include potential destabilisation of the African tropical Williams et al., 2021). Most studies were on adaptation actions in the forest carbon sink, risk of local extinction of more than 50% of plants, food sector, with the least on health (Figure 9.7). The five adaptation vertebrate and insect species across one-fifth of Africa, 7–18% of response categories with the highest number of reported actions were African species at risk of total extinction including, a third of freshwater sustainable water management (food sector), resilient infrastructure fish, and more than 90% warm-water coral reefs lost (Section 9.6.2). and technologies (health sector), agricultural intensification (food For health, projected impacts considered high risk include potentially sector), human migration (poverty and livelihoods) and crop lethal heat exposure for more than 100 days per year in west, central management (food sector). and east Africa, with more than 50 additional heat-related deaths per 100,000 annually across large parts of Africa, and hundreds of millions No adaptation response categories were assessed to have high more people exposed to extreme heat in cities (Section  9.5; 9.10.2; feasibility of implementation. Technological barriers dominate factors 9.9.4.1; Figure  9.35), tens to hundreds of thousands of additional limiting implementation (92% of adaptation categories have low cases of diarrhoeal disease in east, central and west Africa, and tens technological feasibility) followed by institutional barriers (71% of millions more people exposed to mosquito-borne arboviruses like of adaptation categories have low institutional feasibility). This dengue or zika in north, east and southern Africa (Section 9.10.2). assessment matches review studies finding institutional responses to be least common in Africa and highlight inadequate institutional The feasibility and effectiveness of existing adaptation options capacities as key limits to human adaptation (Berrang-Ford et  al., under current levels of warming are assessed in Section 9.10.2 and 2021; Thomas et al., 2021) (Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18). adaptation options considering future levels of warming are assessed Feasibility is higher for the social dimension of adaptation responses in the chapter section for each sector. (with moderate feasibility for 88% of categories). The largest evidence gap is for environmental feasibility for which 67% could not be assessed due to insufficient evidence (Figure 9.7). Sustainable Water Management (SWM) includes rainwater harvesting for irrigation, watershed restoration, water conservation practices 1301 Chapter 9 Africa Table 9.2 |  Key risks from climate change in Africa Key climate change risk Climate impact driver Vulnerability Section Vulnerability highest among poorly dispersing organisms (plants) and Increasing temperatures of freshwaters, species with narrow and disappearing niches (e.g., mountain endemics), Local or global extinction of species and ocean and on land; heatwaves; precipitation and is exacerbated by non-climate hazards (e.g., habitat loss for reduction or irreversible loss of ecosystems changes (both increases and decreases); agriculture or afforestation projects); vulnerability is high for Protected 9.6 and their services, including freshwater, land increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations; Areas surrounded by transformed land preventing species’ dispersal and and ocean ecosystems sea level rise; ocean acidification areas with limited elevational gradients that reduce their potential to act as climate refugia. low-income coastal communities (e.g., artisanal fisherfolk, fishmongers) Risks to marine ecosystem health and to marine heatwaves, increased acidification whose livelihood depends on healthy coral reefs, seagrass beds and 9.6, 9.8 livelihoods in coastal communities and sedimentation/turbidity mangroves High for low-income coastal and riparian communities whose livelihood Increasing temperatures and heat waves depends on healthy ocean and freshwater ecosystems, and for populations Loss of food production from crops, for freshwaters, ocean and on land; reliant on fish for protein and micronutrients. Vulnerability is high for 9.8 9 livestock and fisheries precipitation changes; drought; increased many food producers dependent on rainfall and temperature conditions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations including subsistence farmers, the rural poor, and pastoralists. Lack of access to climate information and services increases vulnerability. Vulnerability is highest for the elderly, pregnant women, individuals with underlying conditions, immune-compromised individuals (e.g., from HIV) and young children. Mortality and morbidity from increased Increasing temperatures; heatwaves; Regions without vector control programmes in place or without detection heat and infectious diseases (including precipitation change (both increases and and treatment regimens. 9.10 vector-borne and diarrhoeal diseases) decreases) Inadequate insulation in housing in informal settlements in urban heat islands. Inadequate improvements in public health systems. Inadequate water and sanitation infrastructure, especially in rapidly expanding urban areas and informal settlements. Conditions underlying severe risk are lower income growth, higher Reduced economic output and growth, and Increased temperatures; reduced rainfall; population levels, low rates of structural economic change with more of 9.11 increased inequality and poverty rates drought; extreme weather events the labour force engaged in agriculture and other more climate-exposed sectors due in part to physical labour outdoors. High reliance on hydropower for national electricity generation, especially east and southern African countries. Planned for high reliance on irrigated Water and energy insecurity due to 9.7; 9.9; Heat and drought food production. Concentrations of hydropower plants within river basins shortage of irrigation and hydropower Box 9.5 experiencing similar rainfall and runoff patterns. Limited electricity trade between major river basins. Coastal and low-lying urban areas and those in dryland regions with rapidly growing populations. People living in informal settlements. Extreme heat; floods; drought; sea level rise Cascading and compounding risks of loss of Increased magnitude of heat waves due to urban heat island effects. and associated coastal hazards; compound life, livelihoods and infrastructure in human Climate shocks to municipal revenues (e.g., from water). Unaffordable 9.9 climate hazards (e.g., coinciding heat and settlements maintenance of transport and protective infrastructure with increasing drought) climate impacts. Greater water resource demand from urban and non-urban populations and key economic sectors. (e.g., efficient irrigation) and less water-intensive cropping (also see feasibility and low institutional and technological feasibility. Bulk Section 9.8.3), and was the most reported adaptation response in the water infrastructure was assessed to have high effectiveness, but low food sector. SWM was assessed with medium economic and social institutional and technological feasibility. Increasing variability in climate feasibility and low environmental, institutional and technological and environmental challenges has made sustainable and resilient feasibility. The feasibility of this adaptation category may depend infrastructure design a key priority (Minsker et al., 2015). RIT is, however, largely on socioeconomic conditions (Amamou et al., 2018; Harmanny generally new in the African context (Cumming et al., 2017) and that and Malek, 2019; Schilling et  al., 2020), as many African farmers may be why there is limited evidence to assess some of its dimensions cannot afford the cost of SWM facilities (Section 9.8.4). (economic and environmental feasibility). Construction of resilient public water infrastructures that include safeguards for sanitation and hygiene Resilient Infrastructure and Technologies (RIT) for health include improved are expensive and, across national and local levels, planning for its housing to limit exposure to climate hazards (Stringer et al., 2020), and construction poses multiple challenges (Choko et al., 2019). improved water quality, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure (e.g., technology across all sectors to prevent contamination and pollution Sustainable agricultural intensification in smallholder farming systems of water, improved water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) approaches (especially agroecological approaches, such as mixed cropping, mixed such as promotion of diverse water sources for water supply, improving farming, no soil disturbance, and mulching) and agroforestry are key health infrastructure) (Section 9.10.3). Overall, RIT had medium social response options to secure food for the growing African population 1302 Africa Chapter 9 Synthesis of adaptation options for Africa Feasibility Dimensions Observations per region Sectors Adaptation options Agroforestry / / Assessment score Sustainable agricultural practices / / Sustainable agricultural intensification / Low Medium High Food fibre Sustainable water management * / and other ecosystem Climate information services / / / / / / products Financial investment / / / / / = insufficient evidence Crop management / na = not applicable 9 Livestock management / / Fisheries management / / / Health governance and planning / / / * water conservation Health, well-being and efficiency and communities Health advisory services and education / / / Resilient infrastructure and technologies / / Risk spreading and sharing / / / Poverty, livelihoods and sustainable development Human migration / / Livelihood diversification / / / / / / Terrestrial, freshwater, Ecosystem restoration and conservation / ocean and coastal ecosystems Ecosystem governance and planning / / Alternative water supply / / / / / Bulk water infrastructure / / / / Water and sanitation Integrated water management / / / Water governance and planning / / Urban governance and planning / / Cities, settlements and key infrastructure Social infrastructure na / / / Infrastructure and built environment / / / Figure 9.7 |  Assessment of the feasibility and effectiveness of observed climate adaptation responses under current climate conditions for 24 categories of adaptation responses across regions of Africa. The assessment comprised evaluation of each adaptation category along six dimensions: for feasibility these were economic viability, environmental sustainability, social validity, institutional relevance, and technological availability; and for effectiveness this was potential for risk reduction (considering current climate conditions) (Williams et al., 2021). Fifty-six experts on the African region were consulted using a structured, expert-driven elicitation process to increase the coverage and robustness of the continent-wide adaptation feasibility and effectiveness assessment in Williams et al. (2021). Assessment included both peer-reviewed articles and grey literature. (Nziguheba et  al., 2015; Ritzema et  al., 2017). Yet many of these when improved seed varieties are available, high price limits access for options currently face low institutional and technological feasibility rural households (Amare et al., 2018; see Sections 9.8.3; 9.8.4). (Figure  9.7). Social and economic feasibility is higher, but barriers include high cost of farm inputs (land, capital and labour), lack of Human migration was assessed to have high potential for risk access to timely weather information and lack of water resources can reduction (Cross-Chapter Box  MIGRATE in Chapter 7, Box  9.8; Rao make this option quite challenging for African smallholder farmers et  al., 2019; Sitati et  al., 2021). However, it had low feasibility for (Sections 9.8.1; 9.11.4; Kihila, 2017; Williams et al., 2019b). economic, institutional and technological dimensions, with limited evidence on environmental feasibility. Institutional factors such Crop management includes adjusting crop choices, planting times, or the as the implementation of top-down policies have been reported as size, type and location of planted areas (Altieri et al., 2015; Nyagumbo limiting options for coping locally, resulting in migration (Brockhaus et  al., 2017; Dayamba et  al., 2018). This option faces environmental, et  al., 2013). Limited financial and technical support for migration institutional and technological barriers to feasibility. Social and limits the extent to which it can make meaningful contributions to economic barriers to implementation are fewer. Factors such as tenure climate resilience (Djalante et al., 2013; Trabacchi and Mazza, 2015). and ownership rights, labour requirements, high investment costs and International and domestic remittances are an important resource that lack of skills and knowledge on how to use the practices are reported can help aid recovery from climate shocks, but inadequate finance to hinder implementation of crop management options by smallholder and banking infrastructure can limit cash transfers (Box  9.8). Male farmers (Muller and Shackleton, 2013; Nyasimi et al., 2017). For instance, migration can increase burdens of household and agricultural work, 1303 Economic Environmental Social Institutional Technological Effectiveness Evidence Western Eastern Southern Northern Central Chapter 9 Africa especially for women (Poudel et al., 2020; Rao et al., 2020; Zhou et al., Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) offers opportunities for smallholder 2020). The more agency migrants have (that is, degree of voluntarity farmers to increase productivity (SDG 2), build adaptive capacity while and freedom of movement), the greater the potential benefits for reducing the emission of GHGs (SDG 13) from agricultural systems sending and receiving areas (high agreement, medium evidence) (Lipper et  al., 2014; Mutenje et  al., 2019). CSA practices including (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7; Box 9.8) conservation agriculture, access to climate information, agroforestry systems, drip irrigation, planting pits and erosion control techniques Adaptation options within a number of categories, including sustainable (Partey et al., 2018; Antwi-Agyei et al., 2021) can improve soil fertility, agriculture practices, agricultural intensification, fisheries management, increase yield and household food security (Zougmoré et  al., 2016; health advisory services and education, social infrastructure, Zougmoré et al., 2018), thereby contributing to the realisation of SDG infrastructure and built environment, and livelihood diversification, 2 in Africa (Mbow et al., 2014). were observed to reduce socioeconomic inequalities (Williams et  al., 2021). Whether adaptation options reduce inequality can be a key In contrast, adaptation actions may induce trade-offs with mitigation consideration enhancing acceptability of policies and adaptation objectives, as well as other adaptation and developmental outcomes, implementation (Box 9.1; Section 9.11.4; Islam and Winkel, 2017). delivering negative impacts and compromising the attainment of 9 the SDGs. For example, increased deployment of renewable energy technologies can drive future land use changes (Frank et al., 2021) and 9.3.2 Adaptation Co-Benefits and Trade-Offs with threaten important biodiversity areas if poorly deployed (Rehbein et al., Mitigation and SDGs 2020). The use of early maturing or drought-tolerant crop varieties may increase resilience (SDGs 1, 2), but adoption by smallholder farmers Synergies between the adaptation to climate change and progress can also be hindered by affordability of seed. Cultivation of biodiesel towards the SDGs present potential co-benefits for realising multiple crops also can hinder food security (SDG 2) at local and national objectives towards climate resilient development in Africa, increasing levels (Tankari, 2017; Brinkman et  al., 2020). Additionally, the use the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of climate actions (Cohen et al., of fertilizers in intense systems can result in increased environmental 2021). However, designing adaptation policy under conditions of degradation (Akinyi et  al., 2021). When farmers migrate, it puts scarcity, common to many African countries, can inadvertently lead to pressure on inadequate social services provision and facilities at trade-offs between adaptation options, as well as between adaptation their destination (SDG 8) and leads to reduced farm labour and a and mitigation options, can reinforce inequality, and fail to address deterioration of the workforce and assets (SDG 2) (Gemenne and underlying social vulnerabilities (Kuhl, 2021). Blocher, 2017a), which negatively affects farm operations and non- migrants, particularly women, elderly and children, at the point of Adaptation options, such as access to climate information, provision origin (Nyantakyi-Frimpong and Bezner-Kerr, 2015; Ahmed et al., 2016; of climate information services, growing of early maturing varieties, Otto et al., 2017; Eastin, 2018). Farmers may also miss critical periods agroforestry systems, agricultural diversification and growing of during the farming season that eventually makes them food insecure drought-resistant varieties of crops may deliver co-benefits, providing (SDG 2) and vulnerable to climate change (SDG 13) (Antwi-Agyei et al., synergies that result in positive outcomes. For instance, in sub- 2018). Migrants should be supported to reduce their overall shocks Saharan African drylands including northern Ghana and Burkina Faso to climate vulnerability at the points of origin and destination. Small- and large parts of the Sahel, migration as a result of unfavourable scale irrigation infrastructure if not managed properly, may lead to environmental conditions closely linked to climate change has negative environmental effects and compromise the integrity of often provided opportunities for farmers to earn income (SDG 1) riparian ecosystems (SDG 15) (Loucks and van Beek, 2017) and serve and mitigate the effects of climate-related fluctuations in crop and as breeding grounds for malaria-causing mosquitoes (SDG 3) (Attu and livestock productivity (SDG 2) (Zampaligré et al., 2014; Antwi-Agyei Adjei, 2018). et al., 2018; Wiederkehr et al., 2018). Renewable energy can mitigate climate effects (SDG 13), improve air quality (SDG 3), wealth and development (SDGs 1, 2). 9.4 Climate Resilient Development Different types of irrigation including drip and small-scale irrigation can Climate resilient development (CRD) is a process of implementing contribute towards increased agricultural productivity (SDG 2), improved GHG mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable income (SDG 1) and food security (SDG 2) and increase resilience to development for all (Denton et  al., 2014; Andrijevic et  al., 2020; long-term changes in precipitation (SDG 13) (Bjornlund et al., 2020). Owen, 2020; Cornforth et  al., 2021). It emphasises equity as a core In Kenya and Tanzania, small-scale irrigation provides employment element of sustainable development as well as conditions for inclusive opportunities and income to both farmers and private businesses (SDGs and sustained economic growth, shared prosperity and decent work 8 and 9) (Lefore et al., 2021; Simpson et al., 2021c). Land management for all, taking into account different levels of national development practices including the use of fertilizers and mulching have also been and capacities as encoded in the SDGs (Section  9.3.2; Chapter 18 highlighted as adaptation options improving soil fertility for better Section 18.1). This section identifies five key dimensions of CRD for yields (SDG 2) and delivering opportunities to reduce the climate Africa: climate finance, governance, cross-sectoral and transboundary change effects (SDG 13) (Muchuru and Nhamo, 2019). solutions, adaptation law, and climate services and literacy. 1304 Africa Chapter 9 9.4.1 Climate Finance specific contexts, adaptation generally is cost-effective (high confidence). The Global Commission on Adaptation estimated the benefits and costs Access to adequate financial resources is crucial for climate change of five illustrative investments and found benefit–cost ratios ranging adaptation (Cross-Chapter Box  FINANCE in Chapter 17). Since the from 2:1 to 10:1. However, it also noted that ‘actual returns depend on Copenhagen Accord (UNFCCC, 2009), and then extended by the Paris many factors, such as economic growth and demand, policy context, Agreement (UNFCCC Paris Agreement, 2015 see Article 4.4, and also 4.8, institutional capacities and condition of assets’ (The Global Commission 4.9), developed countries are expected to scale up climate finance for on Adaptation, 2019). A review of ex-ante cost–benefit analyses for 19 developing countries toward a collective goal of USD 100 billion per year adaptation-focused projects in Africa financed by the Green Climate by 2020, with a balanced allocation between adaptation and mitigation. Fund (GCF) shows benefit–cost ratios in a similar range. Using a 10% discount rate, as used by many of GCF’s accredited entities, the 9.4.1.1 How Much Adaptation Finance is Needed? benefit–cost ratio for individual projects ranges from 0.9:1 to 7.3:1, the median benefit–cost ratio is 1.8:1 and total ratio across all 19 projects is There is limited research providing quantitative estimates of 2.6:1. When using lower discount rates, as some entities do for climate adaptation costs across Africa. Adaptation costs in Africa have been projects, the benefit–cost ratio is even higher, reflecting the front-loaded estimated at USD  7–15  billion per year by 2020 (Schaeffer et  al., costs and back-loaded benefits of many adaptation investments. Using 9 2013), corresponding to USD  5–11 per capita per year. The African a 5% discount rate, the overall benefit–cost ratio of the GCF projects Development Bank estimates costs of near-term adaptation needs is 3.5:1, with a range from 1:1 to 11.5:1 and a median ratio of 2.4:1 identified in the Intended NDCs (INDCs) of African countries as (Breitbarth, 2020). In addition, many proposals have activities for which USD 7.4 billion per year from 2020, recognising INDCs describe only further benefits were not estimated due to the difficulty of attributing a limited subset of adaptation needs (AfDB, 2019). Many African benefits directly to the intervention. The benefits of adaptation measures countries, particularly Least Developed Countries (LDCs), express for infrastructure and others with clear market impacts are often easier a stronger demand for adaptation finance—a study of financial to estimate than for policy interventions and where markets may not demands in INDCs for 16 African countries suggests a ratio around exist, such as ecosystem services (Li et al., 2014). 2:1 for adaptation to mitigation finance with demand for Eritrea and Uganda approximately 80% for adaptation (Zhang and Pan, 2016). 9.4.1.3 How Much Finance is Being Mobilised? Adaptation costs in Africa are expected to rise rapidly as global The amounts of finance being mobilised internationally to support warming increases (high confidence). A meta-analysis of adaptation adaptation in African countries are billions of US dollars less than costs identified in 44 NDCs and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) adaptation cost estimates, and finance has targeted mitigation more from developing countries estimated a median adaptation cost around than adaptation (high confidence). The Organisation for Economic Co- USD 17 per capita per year for 2020–2030 (Chapagain et  al., 2020). operation and Development (OECD (2020) estimates an average of Adaptation cost estimates for Africa increase from USD 20–50 billion USD  17.3  billion per year in public finance targeting mitigation and per year for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 in 2050 adaptation from developed countries to Africa in 2016–2018, with (around 1.5°C of warming), to USD 18–60 billion per year for just over adaptation expected to be a small share of this amount. Of the global 2°C, to USD 100–437 billion per year for 4°C of global warming above total, only 21% in 2018 targeted adaptation (there is no breakdown pre-industrial levels (Schaeffer et al., 2013; UNEP, 2015; Chapagain et al., provided for Africa). Analysis of OECD data that is reported by the 2020). Focusing on individual sectors, the average country-level cost is funders, covering bilateral and multilateral funding sources, estimated projected to be USD 0.8 billion per year for adapting to temperature- international public finance (grants and concessional lending) committed related mortality under 4°C global warming (Carleton et al., 2018), with to Africa for climate change for 2014–2018 at USD 49.9 billion: 61% cumulative energy costs for cooling demand projected to reach USD (30.6 billion) for mitigation, 33% (16.5 billion) for adaptation and 5% 51 billion by 2°C and USD 486 billion by 4°C global warming (Parkes (2.7 billion) for both objectives simultaneously (Figure 9.8a; Savvidou et  al., 2019). Transport infrastructure repair costs are also projected et  al., 2021). This equates to an average of USD 3.8 billion per year to be substantial (Section  9.8.2) More precise estimates are limited targeting adaptation (Savvidou et al., 2021). In per capita terms, only by methodological difficulties and data gaps for costing adaptation, two countries (Djibouti and Gabon) were supported with more than uncertainties about future levels of global warming and associated USD 15 per person per year, most were supported with less than USD 5 climate hazards, and ethical choices such as the desired level of per person per year (Savvidou et al., 2021). protection achieved (Fankhauser, 2010; Hallegatte et al., 2018; UNFCCC, 2018) (Cross-Chapter Box  FINANCE in Chapter 17). As such, existing The multilateral development banks (MDBs) report 43% of their climate- estimates are expected to substantially underestimate eventual costs related commitments to sub-Saharan Africa in 2018 targeted adaptation with adaptation costs possibly 2–3  times higher than current global (EBRD et al., 2021). Sources other than international public finance are estimates by 2030, and 4–5 times higher by 2050 (UNEP, 2016a). more difficult to track and there is limited data on Africa (Cross-Chapter Box  FINANCE in Chapter 17). Considering a wider range of finance 9.4.1.2 Benefit–Cost Ratios in Adaptation types (including private flows and domestic mobilisation), an estimated annual average of roughly USD 19 billion in climate finance for 2017– Although analysts face challenges related to the nature of climate 2018 went to sub-Saharan Africa, of which only 5% was for adaptation change impacts (Sussman et  al., 2014) and data limitations (Li et  al., (CPI, 2019; Adhikari and Safaee Chalkasra, 2021). The mobilisation of 2014) when estimating all costs and benefits for adaptation measures in private finance by developed country governments, through bilateral and 1305 Chapter 9 Africa Climate finance commitments targeting African countries and regions (a) Total adaptation-related finance (commitments) to African countries and regions, by source and recipient regions, 2014-2018 Adaptation 16,489 Multilateral sources World Bank 5,825 Millions of USD 5,630 Eastern (constant prices) Africa Multilateral development banks African Development Bank 2,612 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 441 4,816 Western European Investment Bank 188 Africa Green Climate Fund 1,041 Climate funds Global Environment Facility 376 Climate Investment Funds 178 Adaptation Fund 127 9 Other International Fund for 754 multilaterals Agricultural Development 2,619 Northern EU Institutions (excl. EIB) 1,466 Africa Bilateral sources France 1,572 2,059 Southern United Kingdom 1,313 Africa United States 900 1,443 Central Germany 697 Africa Sweden 308 Norway 273 Canada 231 Ireland 153 Netherlands 150 Adaptation and mitigation 2,663 Regional Other 624 simultaneously allocations 2,742 (b) Trend of adaptation-related finance (c) Total African adaptation- and mitigation-related finance commitments to African regions over time commitments by country, 2014–2018 1,871 Tunisia 5,000 Regional 5,916 allocations Morocco 53 Adaptation-related 0 Algeria Libya 6,906 finance Egypt 4,000 Western 189 Africa Senegal 2,008 775 41 Eritrea Mauritania Mali 666 135 Gambia 346 Niger 193 Sudan 157 Chad Djibouti Guinea-Bissau 157 Burkina 732 Faso Guinea 311 1,897 43 3,323 3,000 Southern 801 Nigeria Central 101 Ethiopia Africa Sierra Leone 136 850 African Republic South Sudan Ghana Cameroon Liberia 330 588 166 1,650 Somalia Northern 825 158 Uganda 3 216 Kenya Africa Benin 208 118 843 Côte d’Ivoire Togo Gabon Congo Democratic 966 Rwanda Republic of the 2,000 Congo 6 1,775 Adaptation 426 Burundi and mitigation Equatorial Tanzania Guinea (5.5%) 215 759 Malawi Eastern Adaptation Mitigation Angola 671 Africa (33.1%) (61.4%) Zambia 121 1,000 Total 221 Zimbabwe 164 allocations 5,936 Namibia 932 Mozambique Botswana 49,876 TMotailll iaolnlosc aotifo nUsSD Regional allocations 64 Eswatini (constant prices) Central Africa including financial commitments 1,814 98 Lesotho 0 that were reported separately from allocations to individual countries South Africa 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Figure 9.8 |  Total adaptation-related finance (commitments) to African countries and regions from 2014–2018 (USD millions, constant prices) as reported to OECD. (a) Flows of committed finance targeting adaptation by source and recipient region; (b) trend over time in international development finance commitments targeting adaptation in Africa; and (c) country-level shares of total climate finance commitments that targeted adaptation or mitigation or both simultaneously. Source: Savvidou et al. (2021). 1306 Millions of USD (constant prices) Africa Chapter 9 Adaptation finance commitments for Africa focused most on agriculture and water, and disbursement ratios for climate-related finance were very low (a) Sectoral distribution of adaptation finance commitments to Africa 2014–2018 (% of amounts committed) Agriculture (30%) 5,715 Water supply and sanitation (20%) 3,770 Values in millions of USD Agricultural Agricultural policy Water supply - large systems Sanitation - large systems Transport Other social development and administrative 996 868 and storage (3%) infrastructure 1,450 management and services (4%) 1,401 Water sector policy and Water supply Other Development administrative management and sanitation - 435 food 976 large systems assistance (2%) Disaster 494 preparednes (4%) Government and civil society (2%) 9 Agricultural Livestock Agri- Environmental policy Rural development land resources 269 cultural and administrative 903 472 research management 226 1283 Urban Disaster development Risk and management Reduction 503 489 Agricultural water resources Other Bio-diversity Other 1,082 813 239 296 Other 325 Other sectors (15%) General environment Other multisector (12%) 2,221 protection (9%) 1,818 (b) Disbursement ratios for Africa compared to global average (c) Disbursement ratios for adaptation finance broken down by sub-region Total 85% development 96% 71% Regional allocations 33% Western Africa 51% Adaptation 67% Southern Africa 46% 15% Northern Africa 48% Eastern Africa 64% Mitigation World Africa 33% Central Africa 56% 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 20% 40% 60% 80% Ratio of disbursements to commitments Ratio of disbursements to commitments Figure 9.9 |  Adaptation finance for Africa has focused most on agriculture and water, and disbursement ratios for climate-related finance are very low (a) The amounts of finance targeting adaptation committed to different sectors across Africa from 2014–2018 in millions of USD as reported to OECD and including multilateral development banks (Savvidou et al., 2021). (b) Disbursement ratios (disbursements expressed as percentage of commitments) for finance targeting mitigation and adaptation, and for total development finance; showing disbursement ratios for Africa compared to global average; and (c) disbursement ratios for adaptation finance broken down by each African sub-region for 2014–2018 (for all funders reporting to OECD except multilateral development banks). Source: Savvidou et al. (2021). multilateral financial support, is lower in Africa relative to other world but decreased in central Africa (Savvidou et  al., 2021) (Figure  9.8b). regions. Globally, in 2016–2018, Africa made up only 17% of mobilised Climate-related finance was >50% for adaptation in 19 countries, while private finance relevant for climate change (OECD, 2020). 26 received >50% for mitigation (Savvidou et al., 2021). Strong differences exist among African sub-regions. Finance commitments African countries expect grants to play a crucial role in supporting targeting adaptation increased from 2014–2018 for east and west Africa adaptation efforts because loans add to already high debt levels that 1307 Chapter 9 Africa exacerbate fiscal challenges, especially in light of high sovereign debt regions (Fonta et  al., 2018). This suggests the quality of proposals levels from the COVID-19 pandemic (Bulow et al., 2020; Estevão, 2020). and therefore the capacity to develop fundable proposals remains From 2014–2018, more finance commitments targeting adaptation inadequate in the region. in Africa were debt instruments (57%) than grants (42%) (Savvidou et al., 2021). Even when accredited, some countries experience significant institutional and financial challenges in programming and implementing activities to For Africa combined, the sectors targeted with most support for support concrete adaptation measures (Omari-Motsumi et al., 2019). Low adaptation are agriculture and water supply and sanitation, which disbursement ratios suggest inadequate capacity to implement projects account for half of total adaptation finance from 2014–2018 once they are approved (Savvidou et al., 2021). Systemic barriers have (Figure 9.9a). The sectoral distribution has changed little over these been highlighted in relation to the multilateral climate funds, including years, suggesting adaptation planners and funders are maintaining a funds not providing full-cost adaptation funding, capacity barriers in relatively narrow view of where support is needed and how to build the design and implementation of adaptation actions (including the climate resilience (Savvidou et al., 2021). development of fundable project proposals) and barriers in recognising and enabling the involvement of sub-national actors in the delivery and 9 However, to understand actual expenditure on adaptation, it is necessary implementation of adaptation action (Omari-Motsumi et al., 2019). As to look at disbursements (that is, the amounts paid out compared to of 2017, most GCF disbursements to Africa (61.9%) were directed to committed amounts). Low ratios of disbursements to commitments support national stakeholders’ engagement with regards to readiness suggest difficulties in project implementation. Disbursement ratios for activities, with only 11% directed to support DAEs in implementation climate-related finance from all funders other than MDBs (for which of concrete projects/pipeline development (Fonta et  al., 2018). While data is not published) in Africa are very low (Figure 9.9b; Savvidou et al., supporting readiness activities is important for strengthening country 2021). Only 46% of 2014–2018 commitments targeting adaptation ownership and institutional development, research suggests adaptation were dispersed (Savvidou et al., 2021). Regions faring worst are north finance needs to shift towards implementation of concrete projects and Africa (15%), central Africa (33%) and west Africa (33%) (Figure 9.9c). more pipeline development if the goal of transformative and sustained These disbursement ratios for adaptation and mitigation finance in adaptation in Africa is to be realised (Fonta et  al., 2018; Omari- Africa are lower than the global average (Savvidou et al., 2021), which Motsumi et al., 2019). The source of these problems needs to be better suggests greater capacity problems in implementing climate-related understood so that the prospects for future climate-related investments projects and, in turn, means lost opportunities to build resilience and can be improved and institutional strengthening and targeted project adaptive capacity and a wider gap in adaptation finance for Africa preparation can be supported (Omari-Motsumi et al., 2019; Doshi and (Omari-Motsumi et al., 2019). Garschagen, 2020; Savvidou et al., 2021). 9.4.1.4 What Are the Barriers and Enabling Conditions for Some progress has been made in supporting developing countries Adaptation Finance? to enhance their adaptation actions. The process to formulate and implement NAPs was established by parties under the UNFCCC to The present situation reflects not only an insufficient level of finance support developing countries in identifying their vulnerabilities, and being mobilised to support African adaptation needs (Section 9.4.1) determine their medium- and long-term adaptation needs (UNFCCC but also problems in accessing and using funding that is available. Paris Agreement, 2015). NAPs provide a means of developing and The direct-access modality introduced by the Adaptation Fund implementing strategies and programmes to address those needs. In and GCF, whereby national and regional entities from developing 2016, the parties agreed the GCF would fund up to USD 3 million per countries can be accredited to access funds directly, is aimed at country for adaptation planning instruments, including NAPs. However, reducing transaction costs for recipient countries, increasing national accessing funding through the GCF for NAP formulation is challenging ownership and agency for adaptation actions, and enhancing decision- (Fonta et al., 2018) and, as of October 2020, 4 years after the decision making responsibilities by national actors, thereby contributing to to fund NAPs, only six African countries had completed their NAPs strengthening local capacity for sustained and transformational (UNFCCC NAP central). The next step is to convert adaptation planning adaptation (CDKN, 2013; Masullo et al., 2015). Indeed, direct-access documents into programming pipeline projects that are fundable projects from the Adaptation Fund tend to be more community and implementable, which presents a significant barrier to enhanced focused than indirect-access projects (Manuamorn and Biesbroek, adaptation action (Omari-Motsumi et al., 2019). 2020). Country institutions in Africa, however, are struggling to be accredited for direct access because of the complicated, lengthy Adaptation finance has not been targeted more towards more and bureaucratic processes of accreditation, which requires, for vulnerable countries (Barrett, 2014; Weiler and Sanubi, 2019; Doshi example, strong institutional and fiduciary standards and capacity and Garschagen, 2020; Savvidou et al., 2021). Reasons for this include to be in place (Brown et al., 2013; Omari-Motsumi et al., 2019). As fast-growing middle-income countries offering larger gains in emission of December 2019, over 80% of all developing countries had no reductions, so finance has favoured mitigation in these economies, national direct access entities (DAEs) (Asfaw et al., 2019). Capacity even within sub-Saharan Africa, and as more climate finance uses debt to develop fundable projects in Africa is also inadequate. An analysis instruments, mitigation projects are further preferred because returns of proposals submitted to the GCF up to 2017 revealed that, while are perceived to be more certain (Rai et al., 2016; Lee and Hong, 2018; African countries were able to submit proposals to the GCF, they Carty et al., 2020; Simpson et al., 2021c). had the lowest percentage of approvals (39%) compared to all other 1308 Africa Chapter 9 Many adaptation interventions for most vulnerable countries and yet there is often a lack of coordination, clear leadership or governance communities provide no adequate financial return on investments mandates (Shackleton et al., 2015; Leck and Simon, 2018) and unequal and can therefore only be funded with concessional public finance power relations between African countries and developed countries can (Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17). Yet, public funds alone hinder progress on governance of financial markets, budget allocations are insufficient to meet rapidly growing adaptation needs. Public and technology transfer to address addressing climate technology gaps mechanisms can help leverage private sector finance for adaptation by in Africa (Rennkamp and Boyd, 2015; Olawuyi, 2018). reducing regulatory, cost and market barriers through blended finance approaches, public–private partnerships, or innovative financial Policy implementation can be slow due to the absence of support instruments and structuring in support of private sector requirements mechanisms and dependency on funding by international partners for risk and investment returns, such as green bonds (Cross-Chapter (Leck and Roberts, 2015; Ozor and Nyambane, 2020). In many countries, Box FINANCE in Chapter 17). Sub-national actors can be core agents commitment to climate policy objectives is low (Naess et al., 2015), to conceptualise, drive and deliver adaptation responses, and unlock particularly in light of competing development imperatives and post- domestic resources in the implementation of adaptation action (CoM COVID-19 recovery efforts (Caetano et al., 2020), although COVID-19 SSA, 2019; Omari-Motsumi et al., 2019), provided they are sufficiently recovery efforts offer significant opportunities for health, economic resourced and their participation and agency are supported. and climate resilience co-benefits (Sections  9.4.3; 9.11.5; Cross- 9 Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7). Another challenge relates to long- Many African countries are at high risk of debt distress, especially due term planning and decision making which is hampered by uncertainty to the COVID-19 pandemic, and will need to decrease their debt levels related to future socioeconomic and GHG emissions scenarios (Coen, to have the fiscal space to invest in climate resilience (Estevão, 2020; 2021), political cycles and short-term political appointment terms Dibley et al., 2021). As of mid-2021, the G20’s Debt Service Suspension (Pasquini et al., 2015). Initiative is providing temporary relief for repayment of bilateral credit, but this has largely not been taken up by private lenders (Dibley et al., Lack of community agency in climate governance affects the capacity 2021; World Bank, 2021). The total external debt-servicing payments for citizen-led climate interventions in Africa (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2015; combined for 44 African countries in 2019 were USD 75 billion (World Mersha and Van Laerhoven, 2016). This is attributed partly to low civic Bank, 2019), far exceeding discussed levels of near-term climate education, limited participation power of citizens and tokenism due finance. Aligning debt relief with Paris Agreement goals could provide to perceived lack of immediate benefits (Odei Erdiaw-Kwasie et  al., an important channel for increased financing for climate action, for 2020), as well as low rates of climate change literacy in many regions example, by allowing African countries to use their debt-servicing (Section 9.4.3; Simpson et al., 2021a). Participation in climate policy payments to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation (Fenton also extends to the private sector, which has been relatively uninvolved et al., 2014). Governments can disclose climate risks when taking on in adaptation discussions to date (Crick et al., 2018). sovereign debt, and debt-for-climate resilience swaps could be used to reduce debt burdens for low-income countries while supporting Africa requires substantial resources and support to adapt to the adaptation and mitigation (Dibley et al., 2021). unavoidable consequences of climate change, a pertinent climate justice concern for governments. However, the mechanisms needed to redress current power imbalances, structural and systemic inequality 9.4.2 Governance are often absent (Saraswat and Kumar, 2016; see Section  9.11.4) and policies that underpin environmental justice concerns, including 9.4.2.1 Governance Barriers distributive justice, participation, recognition and capability (Shi et al., 2016; Chu et al., 2017) are also needed. Overcoming governance barriers is a precondition to ensure successful adaptation and CRD (Pasquini et  al., 2015; Owen, 2020).  Despite 9.4.2.2 Good Governance the ambitious climate targets across African countries and renewed commitments in recent years (Zheng et al., 2019; Ozor and Nyambane, Good governance can contribute to positive climate outcomes and 2020), governance barriers include, among others, slow policy CRD in Africa through long-term planning, development-focused policy implementation progress (Shackleton et  al., 2015; Taylor, 2016), environments, the development of robust and transformational policy incoherent and fragmented approaches (Zinngrebe et  al., 2020; architecture, inclusive participation and timely implementation of NDCs Nemakonde et al., 2021), inadequate governance systems to manage (Bataille et al., 2016; Werners et al., 2021; see Table 9.3 for examples). climate finance (Granoff et al., 2016; Banga, 2019), poor stakeholder participation (Sherman and Ford, 2014), gender inequalities (Andrijevic African governments are developing and revising ambitious adaptation et  al., 2020), unaligned development and climate agendas (Musah- policies that are enforceable and aligned with wider societal Surugu et al., 2019; Robinson, 2020), elite capture of climate governance development goals, including an enabling environment for finance and systems (Kita, 2019), hierarchical and complex state bureaucracy investment in the jobs and skills development necessary to support (Meissner and Jacobs, 2016; Biesbroek et  al., 2018) and weak, non- a just transition (Section 9.4.5; ILO, 2019). If appropriately designed, existent or fragmented sub-national institutions (Paterson et al., 2017; such institutions offer the opportunity to foster adaptive governance Musah-Surugu et  al., 2019). Further, adaptation planning involves that is collaborative, multi-level and decentralised, offering integration cross-cutting themes, multiple actors and institutions with different of policy domains, flexibility and an emphasis on non-coerciveness and objectives, jurisdictional authority and levels of power and resources, adaptation (Ruhl, 2010). 1309 Chapter 9 Africa Table 9.3 |  Characteristics and examples of governance that contribute towards CRD in Africa. Governance characteristic Example Countries are mainstreaming adaptation into their long-term development cycles (UNFCCC Adaptation Committee, 2019). For example, Burkina Faso’s Long-term development planning National Adaptation Plan elaborates its perspective to 2050 and links to its development pathways (Government of Burkina Faso, 2015). Many African countries are also enhancing the adaptation components of their long-term low emissions strategies. Climate policies can be designed to include specific policy mechanisms (e.g., carbon taxes, renewable energy subsidies) to maximise developmental Climate justice and gains while reducing inequality (Andrijevic et al., 2020). For example, revenues from a carbon tax can be used to increase social assistance inequality-focused policies programmes that benefit poor people and reduce their vulnerability to climate change (Hallegatte et al., 2016). Climate risk management can be integrated into social protection and assistance programmes, such as public works programmes that increase climate resilience (Section 9.11). Cross-sectoral and multi-level governance approaches can harness synergies with the SDGs, Paris Agreement and Agenda 2063 aspirations, helping Interlinkages between adaptation to counter the adaptation deficit, promote sustainable resource use and contribute to poverty reduction (Niang et al., 2014; IPBES, 2018; Roy et al., and development pathways 2018b). Ghana, Namibia, Rwanda and Uganda all link adaptation with disaster risk reduction in their NDCs (UNFCCC Adaptation Committee, 2019). Climate policies, traditionally overseen by environment ministries, are increasingly receiving priority from finance and planning ministries. Zambia’s High-level engagement Climate Change Secretariat is currently led by the Ministry of Finance (Government of the Republic of Zambia, 2010), while Tanzania’s environmental division sits in the office of the Vice-President (Governmet of the United Republic of Tanzania, 2011). 9 In Kenya, the Climate Change Directorate is the secretariat for the National Climate Change Commission, serving as an overarching mechanism to coordinate sectoral and county-level action (Government of the Republic of Kenya, 2018). In South Africa, the National Committee on Climate All-of-government approach Change, the Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change and the Presidential Climate Change Commission have been established to enhance intergovernmental and multi-sectoral coordination on climate action (Climate Action Tracker, 2021). Polycentric, bottom-up and locally implemented approaches are more able to include the emergence of new actors (e.g., city networks, multinational companies and sub-state entities), new instruments and levels (soft law instruments or transnational dynamics) and new guiding principles and values (fairness, transparency and co-participation) (Leal Filho et al., 2018; Sapiains et al., 2021). Case studies include the community-based, Participatory engagement participatory scenario planning approach used in Malawi to generate information for farmers from seasonal forecasts, as well as the integration of climate risk into Lusaka’s Strategic Plan through engagement with city planners (Conway and Vincent, 2021; Vincent and Conway, 2021). Many innovative solutions have been designed to promote participation, such as Pamoja Voices toolkits in pastoralist communities in northern Tanzania (Greene et al., 2020). Kenya’s Climate Change Directorate has a designated team to integrate gender into its national climate policies (Murray, 2019), while Seychelles’ National Climate Change Council has allocated a seat exclusively for a youth candidate (Government of The Seychelles, 2020). Tanzanian Inclusive and diverse stakeholders Climate-Smart Agriculture Alliance supports the integration of farmers and builds strategic alliances to support climate processes (Nyasimi et al., 2017). Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Zambia are developing anticipatory scenarios for low-carbon CRD pathways for the agricultural sector, aimed at informing input into national climate policy (Balié et al., 2019). This science to policy to practice interface is bridged through the inclusion of policymakers, Partnerships practitioners and academics (Dinesh et al., 2018). In Lusaka, Durban and other African cities, processes of engagement and learning have built the trust and capacities needed to inform city-scale, climate-resilient decisions and associated actions (Taylor et al., 2021a; Taylor et al., 2021b). Nationally Determined Rwanda has developed an indicator-based monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework for tracking its NDC implementation and Contributions (NDC) associated financial flows (Government of Republic of Rwanda, 2020). Zambia has also integrated gender indicators into its NDC implementation implementation plan and is incorporating gender considerations into its MRV framework (Murray, 2019). Coordination across multiple sectors, supported with leadership from community members in decision making, increasing the capacity of the highest levels of government, has shown to improve implementation these communities to respond to climate change (Reid, 2014). effectiveness and anticipated scaling up (Rigaud et al., 2018). This high- level engagement promotes the inclusion of climate resilience and Specific indicators can be included in the performance metrics and adaptation targets in national planning and budgeting. Financial and monitoring frameworks for each sector, policy intervention and budget capacity support is essential (Adenle et  al., 2017; UNEP, 2021), as is planning cycle (Wojewska et al., 2021). Many countries in Africa are also the tracking of national progress towards development goals (Box 9.6). revamping their institutional coordination mechanisms to reflect an all- of-government approach and partnership with non-state stakeholders In Africa, climate governance occurs in a context of deep inequality with diverse capabilities and expertise (see examples from Rwanda and asymmetric power relations—both within countries and between and Zambia in Table 9.3). This includes Cape Town’s drought response countries—making adequate mechanisms for multi-stakeholder in 2017/2018 where non-state actors actively partnered with the state participation essential (Sapiains et al., 2021). This requires the creation response around water management/savings practices (Simpson et al., of avenues for the voices of marginalised groups in policy processes 2020a; 2020b; Cole et al., 2021b). and enabling policy environments that can catalyse inclusive action and transformational responses to climate change (Totin et al., 2018; Revi et  al., 2020; Ziervogel et  al., 2021), safeguarding protection 9.4.3 Cross-sectoral and Transboundary Solutions against the climate harms of the most vulnerable in society, particularly of women and children (see also Box 9.1). Community-based natural Climate change does not present its problems and opportunities resource management in pastoral communities was observed to conveniently aligned with traditional sectors, so mechanisms are improve institutional governance outcomes through involving needed to facilitate interactions and collaborations between people 1310 Africa Chapter 9 working in widely different sectors (Simpson et al., 2021b). Traditional and risk pathways across country boundaries and regions (although risk assessments typically only consider one climate hazard and one with different levels of impact) accelerate the urgency for integrated sector at a time, but this can lead to substantial misestimation of risk approaches to manage and benefit from shared resources and promote because multiple climate risks can interact to cause extreme impacts their security for populations and economies (Namara and Giordano, (Zscheischler et al., 2018; Simpson et al., 2021b). 2017; Frame et al., 2018; Carter et al., 2021). At the same time, natural resources such as water generate economic benefits shared across Because multiple risks are interlinked and can cascade and amplify boundaries, such as hydroelectric power generation and regional food risk across sectors, cross-sectoral approaches that consider these security (Dombrowsky and Hensengerth, 2018). interlinkages are essential for CRD, especially for managing trade-offs and co-benefits among SDGs, mitigation and adaptation responses Poor governance, particularly at the transboundary level, can undermine (Liu et al., 2018a). water security and climate change is likely to add new challenges to pre- existing dynamics, emphasising the necessity of formal transboundary In Africa, placing cross-sectoral approaches at the core of CRD provides arrangements (Jensen and Lange, 2013; UNECA, 2016). Further, it can significant opportunities to deliver large benefits and/or avoided constrain access to critical financial resources at a time when it is damages across multiple sectors including water, health, ecosystems needed most. This is particularly the case when climate impact pathways 9 and economies (very high confidence) (Boxes 9.5; 9.6; 9.7). They can manifest at the transboundary level (Challinor et  al., 2018; Simpson also prevent adaptation or mitigation action in one sector exacerbating et al., 2021b), but where the need to protect sovereign interests can risks in other sectors and resulting in maladaptation, for example, from block regionally integrated institutional arrangements that are pivotal large-scale dam construction or large-scale afforestation (e.g., water– for accessing the multilateral climate funds for transboundary climate energy–food nexus and large-scale tree planting efforts) (Boxes 9.3; investments that include resilient infrastructure and greater water 9.5). benefits across Africa’s shared river basins (Cross-Chapter Box INTEREG in Chapter 16; Carter et al., 2021). Cross-sectoral or ‘nexus’ approaches can improve the ability of decision makers to foresee and prevent major climate impacts. Barriers In response, the African Development Bank is supporting two of the to developing nexus approaches arise from rigid sectoral planning, most climate-vulnerable and larger African river basins to leverage GCF regulatory and implementation procedures, entrenched interests, and and Global Environment Facility (GEF) funds to finance Programmes for power structures and established sectoral communication structures. Integrated Development and Adaptation to Climate Change (PIDACC). Opportunities for overcoming these barriers include creating a PIDACC finance is approved at the multinational level in the Niger basin dedicated home for co-development of nexus risk assessment which is shared by nine west and central African States (AfDB, 2018c; and solutions, promoting co-leadership of projects by multiple GCF, 2018a), while a PIDACC proposal is currently under development sectors, specific budget allocations for nexus projects, facilitating for the Zambezi basin (Zambezi Watercourse Commission, 2021). and coordinating services, compiling useful strategies into toolkits, ameliorating inequitable power relations among participants and Stakeholders across Africa are recognising the scale and severity of measuring progress on nexus approaches through metrics (Palmer transboundary risks to water. Such risks are two-fold in nature, arising et al., 2016; Baron et al., 2017). both from potential impacts due to climate change and from responses to climate change (Simpson et  al., 2021b). This awareness among Beyond cross-sectoral collaboration, international cooperation is vital stakeholders is leading to increasingly progressive approaches to natural to avert dangerous climate change as its impacts reach beyond the resource development that can also reduce risk across boundaries jurisdiction of individual states. International good practice and regional within regions. For example, river basin organisations in Southern Africa agreements, protocols and policies together recognise that regional such as the Orange-Senqu and the Okavango River Basin Commissions integration, cooperative governance and benefit-sharing approaches are revising treaties considered to pre-date the interrelated issues of are cornerstones of effective resource security and climate change climate change, growing populations and water scarcity (OKACOM, responses in Africa (Jensen and Lange, 2013; World Bank, 2017a; 2020). In parts of west Africa, where climate change is characterised by Dombrowsky and Hensengerth, 2018). Natural resource development, reduction of precipitation (Barry et al., 2018), regionally integrated and particularly governance of shared river basins, exemplifies opportunities climate-resilient economic investments for water resource development for governance responses for African nations that can be cooperative, are enabled by the Senegal River Basin Organisation (OMVS) which regionally integrated and climate resilient. emphasises programme and project development, financing and implementation in ensuing work plans (World Bank, 2020e), as does In Africa, climate vulnerability crosses geopolitical divides as regional the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in north and east Africa (Schmeier, 2017; clusters of fragile and high vulnerability countries exist, emphasising Blumstein and Petersen-Perlman, 2021). the need for transboundary cooperation (Birkmann et al., 2021; Buhaug and von Uexkull, 2021). Natural resource security is increasingly reliant Enhanced transboundary governance arrangements suggest that on transboundary governance, regional integration and cooperation countries are joining forces to coherently manage and protect natural (Namara and Giordano, 2017). There are 60 international or shared river resources (Spalding-Fecher et  al., 2014; AfDB, 2021). Underlying basins on the continent, a function of colonial divides and topography, governance issues and political economy interests block or advance with some basins shared by four or more countries (UNECA, 2016; such transitions to regionally integrated resource management and Popelka and Smith, 2020). Climate changes which result in impact benefit-sharing, the market drivers of water security (AMCOW, 2012; 1311 Chapter 9 Africa Soliev et al., 2015). Angola, for example, outlines regional adaptation Progress in development of climate change as a priority and one of its unconditional adaptation strategies (which framework law in Africa is already funded) is enhancing resilience in the Benguela fisheries system, a project shared with Namibia and South Africa (GEF and FAO, 2021). Another example is The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and Sahel Initiative, which was launched in 2007 with the aim of tackling land degradation in Africa (UNCCD, 2020). This transboundary project, led by the African Union Commission, is being implemented in more than 20  countries across Africa’s Sahel region, in cooperation with international partners including UNCCD, GEF and the World Bank. Approximately USD 10 billion have been mobilised and/or promised for this initiative (UNCCD, 2020). Such statements demonstrate the increasing identification of transboundary risks and approaches Cape Verde to manage and adapt to them as areas of ‘common concern’ that São Tome and Principe Seychelles 9 require cooperative adaptation actions. Accelerating strengthened St. Helena Mauritius transboundary water and climate governance needs to integrate these Réunion climate drivers of compromised water security. The role of institutions Law contains dedicated Comoros Mayotte such as OMVS and the NBI have demonstrated they can influence climate change references or considerations economic behaviour among riparian countries of shared river basins Framework Law enacted highlighting that institutions are an integral part of climate governance Framework Bill in draft form in evolving economic systems (Hodgson, 2000). Framework Bill under discussion No or limited information available 9.4.4 Climate Change Adaptation Law in Africa 9.4.4.1 The Rise of Climate Change Adaptation Law Figure 9.10 |  Progress in development of climate change framework law in Africa derived from an analysis of public databases of African laws, Robust legislative frameworks, both climate change specific and non- data drawn from Government of Niger (1998); Government of Liberia (2002); Government of Algeria (2004); Government of Tanzania (2004); Government of specific, can foster adaptive responses to climate change, particularly Central African Republic (2008); Government of Lesotho (2008); Government of Togo in LDCs (Nachmany et  al., 2017). As discussed in Chapter 17, there (2008); Government of Guinea Bissau (2011); Government of Ivory Coast (2012); are many reasons for this. The successful implementation of policy Government of Rwanda (2012); Government of Sierra Leone (2012); Government of objectives across the continent is often contingent upon or at least Cape Verde (2014); Government of Morocco (2014); Government of Mozambique supported by an underlying legislative framework (Averchenkova and (2014); Government of Madagascar (2015); Government of the Seychelles (2015); Government of Gabon (2016); Government of Kenya (2016); Government of Mali Matikainen, 2017; Scotford et al., 2017). There are also wider systemic (2016); Government of Zambia (2016); Government of Malawi (2017); Government and structural reasons for developing climate change legislation, of Nigeria (2017); Government of Benin (2018); Government of Ghana (2018); including the promotion of coordination within government, its policy Government of South Africa (2018); Government of Uganda (2018); Government of entrenching role, its symbolic value and its potential to support climate Zimbabwe (2019) sources quoted as of September 2019. finance flows (Nachmany et al., 2017; Scotford and Minas, 2019). appropriate body of law with a strong focus on adaptation responses Legal systems, however, also have the potential to be maladaptive. (Rumble, 2019). As discussed in Chapter 17, however, there remains the Laws may be brittle, often assuming and reinforcing a static state, and need for in-country expert input on how the domestic legal landscape the boundary of the law may not align to the relevant location, scale or may influence their operation, and for each jurisdiction to independently impact (Craig, 2010; Arnold and Gunderson, 2013; Wenta et al., 2019). interrogate its adaptation needs and objectives (Scotford et al., 2017). This necessitates the review and revision of existing laws to remove such barriers and foster adaptive management (Craig, 2010; Ruhl, Numerous African states have also included dedicated climate change- 2010; Cosens et al., 2017) and, where necessary, the promulgation of related provisions within various existing statutes that regulate new laws. the environment or disaster management. For example, Tanzania’s Environmental Management Act 20 of 2004 contains dedicated There has been a rise in framework and sectoral climate change laws provisions to address climate change. Rwanda’s Law on Environment across Africa, as illustrated in Figure  9.10. The map illustrates the 48/2018 also contains detailed provisions on mainstreaming climate two framework statutes which have been promulgated in Benin and change into development planning processes, education on climate Kenya, as well as the three framework bills which have been drafted change, vulnerability assessments and the promotion of measures in Nigeria, South Africa and Uganda. There are also discussions taking to enhance adaptive capacity. Some countries have also developed place in Zimbabwe and Ghana regarding the potential development of laws dedicated to a specific aspect of adaptation. For example, the a draft framework climate change bill. A review of the climate change Conservation and Climate Adaptation Trust of Seychelles Act 18 of 2015 framework laws indicates evidence of cross-pollination in design across establishes a trust fund to finance climate change adaptation responses African jurisdictions, creating the potential for a unique and regionally in Seychelles. Similarly, many countries including Algeria, Burkina Faso, 1312 Africa Chapter 9 Djibouti, Ghana, Namibia, Malawi, Mauritius, Madagascar, Mozambique, of climate change considerations within the local sphere of government, Tanzania and South Africa have dedicated disaster management laws. and a willingness to foster such practices (Mwanga, 2019). At this stage, it is still too early to determine whether these laws are having any substantive influence in strengthening resilience and In addition to the advancement of Indigenous knowledge in adaptive reducing vulnerability and, as discussed in Chapter 17, this is identified responses, it has been suggested that the protection of the rights of as a knowledge gap requiring further research. Indigenous Peoples can have adaptive benefits, in particular through the protection of land tenure rights (Ayanlade and Jegede, 2016). It 9.4.4.2 Common Themes in Framework Laws has been argued that doing so will protect Indigenous Peoples’ lands and resources from overconsumption, secure the recognition of their Laws are now being developed to formalise and entrench institutional cultural stewardship over the environment, provide the financial structures, specifying their mandate, function, membership and related incentive for land stewardship and promote the application of their procedures. A useful example of such an approach can be found in the unique knowledge on the sustainable development of that land Nigerian Climate Change Bill which establishes the National Climate and its preservation (Jaksa, 2006; Ayanlade and Jegede, 2016). Not Council on Climate Change headed and chaired by the Vice-President, only can a lack of protection of Indigenous legal tenure undermine with a wide membership of ministers, the Chairmen of the Governors’ these objectives, but a number of African laws may actively work 9 Forum and Association of Local Governments, as well as the private against them. For example, a review of Tanzanian and Zambian laws sector and non-governmental organisation (NGO) representatives. highlighted existing provisions that empowered the state to terminate or criminalise the occupation of vacant, undeveloped or fallow lands, Climate change framework laws can play an instrumental role in which undermined the occupation by Indigenous peoples of forests achieving mainstreaming by directing relevant actors to integrate and other uncultivated lands (Ayanlade and Jegede, 2016). adaptation considerations into existing mandates, operations and planning instruments (Rumble, 2019). By way of example, the South African Draft Climate Change Bill contains a general duty to 9.4.5 Climate Services, Perception and Literacy ‘coordinate and harmonise the policies, plans, programmes and decisions of the national, provincial and local spheres of government’ Policy actors across Africa perceive that human-caused climate to achieve, among other things, the climate change objectives of the change is already impacting their locales through a range of negative Bill and national adaptation objectives. socioeconomic and environmental effects (Pasquini, 2020; Steynor and Pasquini, 2020). They are highly concerned about and motivated to Another common theme is the requirement to develop national climate address these impacts (Hambira and Saarinen, 2015; Pasquini, 2020). change adaptation strategies and plans. Many laws further entrench Transformative responses to the impacts of climate change facilitate their longevity by requiring them to be subject to strong community CRD and are informed by perceptions of climate variability and change participation and consultation, as demonstrated by the Kenyan Climate and climate change literacy (Figure 9.11). Change Act and the Nigerian Climate Change Bill. 9.4.5.1 Climate Information and Services 9.4.4.3 Local Climate Change Laws and Indigenous Knowledge Systems Climate services (CS) broadly include the generation, tailoring and provision of climate information for use in decision making at all levels The Paris Agreement acknowledges, in Article 7.5, that adaptation of society (Street, 2016; Vaughan et al., 2018). There is a range of climate should be based on and guided by, among other things, ‘traditional service providers in Africa, including primarily National Meteorological knowledge, knowledge of indigenous peoples and local knowledge and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and partner institutions, systems’. The accumulated knowledge within Indigenous knowledge complemented by NGOs, the private sector and research institutions systems is particularly important as it can assist governments in (Snow et al., 2016; Harvey et al., 2019), which offer the potential for determining how the climate is changing, how to characterise these public–private partnerships (Winrock, 2018; Harvey et al., 2019). impacts and provide lessons for adaptation (Salick and Ross, 2009). In this context, Indigenous knowledge systems can play an important International development funding has progressed the provision of role in the effective design of local laws (Mwanga, 2019), as well CS and, together with technological advances and capacity-building as national laws. Doing so can contribute to the success of climate initiatives, has increased the reliability of CS across Africa (Vogel change response strategies, including enhancing local participation et al., 2019). Most CS investments have been towards the agricultural and the implementation of community-based and ecosystem-based sector, with other focal sectors, including pastoralism, health, water, adaptations (Chanza and de Wit, 2016; Mwanga, 2019). For example, energy and disaster risk reduction, having only small CS initiatives the Makorongo Village Forest Management By-Law in Tanzania codifies directed towards them (Nkiaka et al., 2019; Carr et al., 2020). Despite local customary practices relating to forest management and sustainable this focus and investment, however, there remains a mismatch harvesting with associated dual adaptation and mitigation benefits and between the supply and uptake of CS in Africa as information is includes all villagers in the decision-making processes relating to forest often inaccessible, unaffordable, not relevant to context or scale, management (Mwanga, 2019). The inclusion of beneficial Indigenous and is poorly communicated (Singh et  al., 2018; Antwi-Agyei et  al., knowledge systems within local by-laws is contingent on the active 2021) (Table 9.4; Sections 9.4.1.5.1 and 9.13.4.1). Observational data involvement of members of the Indigenous community and awareness required for effective regional CS, including trend analyses, seasonal 1313 Chapter 9 Africa The importance of climate services and climate change literacy for more transformative responses to climate change in Africa (a) Perception of change Transformative Climate services affects risk perception Climate Response provide information that and urgency informs response Experience and Climate change perception of changes literacy 9 (b) Agreement/ Agreement/ Climate Change no agreement of no agreement of Literacy Rate perception and local perception and local 60–69% temperature records precipitation records 50–59% No agreement No agreement 40–49% Agreement Agreement 30–39% No data No data 20–29% No studies No studies No data Figure 9.11 |  Climate services and climate literacy are important for informing transformative responses to climate change (including adaptation and mitigation responses) (a) The importance of climate services and climate change literacy for more transformative responses to climate change in Africa adapted from Simpson et al. (2021a). Climate services promote climate resilient development by providing climate information for adaptation decision making (Street, 2016; Vaughan et al., 2018). Scalable uptake of climate services relies partly on climate risk perception of users, which is largely driven in Africa by experience and perception of local climate changes (Jacobs and Street, 2020; Steynor et al., 2020b; Steynor and Pasquini, 2020). Perception of climate change can occur without knowledge of its human-induced causes and its effects (Lee et al., 2015; Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017; Andrews and Smirnov, 2020). This can lead to coping responses to climate change which fall short of adaptation. Climate change literacy encompasses being aware of climate change and its anthropogenic causes and, together with climate services, can strengthen responses to climate change through better understanding of future risk (IPCC, 2019b; Simpson et al., 2021a). (b, c) Percentage of studies that have recorded that perception of temperature changes and precipitation changes agreed with local meteorological or climate records across 33 African countries (size of bubble indicates number of studies per country for both b and c. In b, agreement with temperature changes is indicated for all studies within a country in red, and articles indicating no agreement in orange; while in c, agreement with precipitation changes is indicated per country in dark blue and articles indicating no agreement in light blue. A total of 144 studies assessed across the 33 countries). (d) Country-level rates of climate change literacy for 33 African countries (i.e., percentage of the population that have heard about climate change and think that human activity is wholly or partly the cause of climate change) Simpson et al. (2021a). climate assessment, modelling and model evaluation, is sparse and 2019; Carter et  al., 2020). Co-production of CS involves climate in- often of poor quality (Figure 9.11) and usually requires payment which formation producers, practitioners and stakeholders, and other knowl- renders it unaffordable (Winrock, 2018). edge holders participating in equitable partnerships and dialogues to collaboratively identify climate-based risk and develop scale-relevant A number of these challenges can be addressed through the transdis- climate information to address this risk (Table  9.4) (Vincent et  al., ciplinary co-production of CS (Alexander and Dessai, 2019; Vogel et al., 2018; Carter et al., 2020). 1314 Africa Chapter 9 Table 9.4 |  Challenges and opportunities for Climate Services in Africa for the supply and uptake of climate services. Examples of programmes that address these Challenges Opportunities/solutions References challengesa Supply of Climate Services East Africa and the West African Sahel (ENACTS programme) Poor infrastructure (e.g., – International funding for observation Working with NMHS to provide enhanced services by Snow et al. (2016); World Bank non-functioning observational networks; networks, data rescue and data sharing overcoming the challenges of data quality, availability and Group (2016); Winrock (2018); limited Internet bandwidth; lack of – Regular NMHS budgets from access. Cullmann et al. (2020); Meque climate modelling capacity; issues of governments Creating of reliable climate information suitable for national et al. (2021) keeping pace with changing technology) – Public–private partnerships and local decision-making using station observations and satellite data to provide greater accuracy in smaller space and time scales. – Greater collaboration between the NMHS Rwanda (RCSA programme) and sector-specific specialists to create a Winrock (2018); Hansen et al. Improving CS and agricultural risk management at local and Fragmented delivery of Climate Services central database of sector-based climate (2019a) national government levels in the face of a variable and 9 services changing climate. Burkina Faso (BRACED project) Mismatch in time scales: short-term Jones et al. (2015); Vincent Strengthening technical and communication capacities information more desirable (e.g., et al. (2018); Hansen et al. – Co-production of climate service products of national meteorological services to enable partners seasonal predictions as opposed to (2019a); Carr et al. (2020); to jointly develop forecasts tailored to support decadal or end of century projections) Sultan et al. (2020) agro-pastoralists. Burkina Faso (BRACED project) Development funding interventions – Co-production of climate service products Actors recognised the need to ensure continuation of CS operate on time scales that inhibit – Endogenously driven climate services Vincent et al. (2018); Vogel post-project. Burkina Faso NMHS (ANAM) and National or restrict effective adaptation and (services that are developed by regional et al. (2019) Vincent et al. Council for Emergency Assistance and Rehabilitation neglect to build in considerations actors, not by remote, usually developed (2020a) (CONASUR) budgeted for the continued communication of for sustainability post the funded nation actors) CS and training of focal weather intermediaries. Local radio intervention stations agreed to continue transmitting CS. Use of Climate Services Jones et al. (2015); Winrock – Capacity development initiatives for (2018); Hansen et al. (2019a); Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Niger and Malawi (ALP Insufficient access to usable data, Climate Services providers, intermediaries Hansen et al. (2019c); Mercy Programme) including station data, and information (including extension agents, NGO workers Corps (2019); Nkiaka et al. Co-production of relevant information for decision making suited to the decision context (including and others) and users (2019); Carr et al. (2020); and planning at seasonal time scales. The methods and accessibility limitations based on gender – User needs assessments Cullmann et al. (2020); media for communication and messages differ between and social inequalities) – Consistent monitoring and evaluation of Gumucio et al. (2020); Sultan different users. Strong emphasis on participation by women. Climate Services interventions et al. (2020) Figure 9.11 Cities in Zambia, Namibia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Malawi and South Africa (FRACTAL programme) Snow et al. (2016); Singh et al. Limited capacity of users to understand Repeated interactions between each represented sector – Co-production of climate service products (2018); Vincent et al. (2018); or request appropriate Climate Services to learn and more completely understand the different – Capacity development Nkiaka et al. (2019); Daniels products contexts of each represented party and build understanding et al. (2020) through an ethic of collaboration for solving climate-related problems in each unique city. – Co-production of climate service products Tanzania (ENACTS programme) Vincent et al. (2018); Nkiaka – Combine scientific and Indigenous Co-production to inform malaria decisions systematically et al. (2019); Vaughan et al. Lack of user trust in the information forecasts and change relationships, trust, and demand in a manner (2019); Vogel et al. (2019); – Demonstrate added value of the climate that had not been realised through previous singular and Nyadzi et al. (2021) service siloed approaches. – Regular NMHS budgets from Socioeconomic, and institutional Snow et al. (2016); World Bank governments barriers (limited professional mandates, Group (2016); Winrock (2018); – Public–private partnerships financing limitations, institutional Harvey et al. (2019); Vincent – Supportive institutions, policy frameworks cooperation) et al. (2020b) and individual capacity and agency Notes: (a) Reproduced from Carter et al. (2020) with permission. 1315 Chapter 9 Africa However, the effectiveness of co-production processes are hindered increased drought frequency, shorter rainy season and rainy season by aspects such as inequitable power relationships between different delay, and increased temperatures (Figure 9.11; Rurinda et al., 2014; types of knowledge holders (e.g., scientists and practitioners), Boansi et al., 2017; Ayanlade et al., 2018), but not in all cases or not for inequitable distribution of funding between developed country and all perceived changes, with common discrepancies in perceived lower African partners that favours developed country partners, an inability rainfall totals (Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017; Ayal and Leal Filho, 2017; to develop sustained trust relationships as a result of short-funding Simpson et al., 2021a). cycles, a lack of flexibility due to product-focused engagements and the scalability of co-production to enable widespread reach across Africa Farming experience, access to extension services and increasing as the process is usually context specific (high confidence) (Vincent age are the most frequently cited factors positively influencing the et al., 2018; Vogel et al., 2019; 2020a). perceptions of climate changes (Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017; Oduniyi and Tekana, 2019). Personal experience of climate-related changes Despite these challenges, the inclusive nature of co-production has and their impacts appears to be an important factor influencing had a positive influence on the uptake of CS into decision making perceptions through shaping negative associations, for example, where it has been applied (Table 9.4; Figure 9.12; Vincent et al., 2018; experience of flash floods (Elshirbiny and Abrahamse, 2020) or direct 9 Vogel et al., 2019; Carter et al., 2020; Chiputwa et al., 2020) (medium effect on economic activity, indicating that perception is not restricted confidence), through sustained inter/transdisciplinary relationships to crop farmers (Liverpool-Tasie et  al., 2020). However, perceptions and capacity development (Norström et al., 2020), strategic financial show common misconceptions about the causes of climate change, investment, fostering of ownership of resulting products and the which has implications for climate action (Elshirbiny and Abrahamse, combining of scientific and other knowledge systems (Carter et  al., 2020), highlighting the importance of climate change literacy. 2020; Steynor et  al., 2020a). There is high confidence that together with improved institutional capacity building and strategic financial 9.4.5.3 Climate Change Literacy investment, CS can help African stakeholders adapt to projected climate risks (Figure 9.11). Understanding the human cause of climate change is a strong predictor of climate change risk perception (Lee et  al., 2015) and a 9.4.5.2 Community Perceptions of Climate Variability and critical knowledge foundation that can affect the difference between Change coping responses and more informed and transformative adaptation (Figure 9.11; Oladipo, 2015; Mutandwa et al., 2019). At a minimum, Perceptions of climate variability and change affect whether and how climate change literacy includes both having heard of climate change individuals and institutions act, and thus contribute to the success or and understanding it is, at least in part, caused by people (Simpson failure of adaptation policies related to weather and climate (Silvestri et  al., 2021a). However, large inequalities in climate change literacy et al., 2012; Arbuckle et al., 2015; Simpson et al., 2021a). exist between and within countries and communities across Africa. A recent Afrobarometer study covering 34 African countries found 67% The average national climate change literacy rate in Africa is only 39% of Africans perceive climate conditions for agricultural production to (country rates range from 23–66%) (Figure 9.11). Of 394 sub-national have worsened over time, and report drought as the main extreme regions surveyed by Afrobarometer, 8% (37 regions in 16  countries) weather event to have worsened in the past decade (Selormey et al., have a climate change literacy rate lower than 20%, while only 2% 2019). Of these participants, across all socioeconomic strata, 71% of (8 regions) score higher than 80%, which is common across European those who were aware of the concept of climate change agreed that it countries (Simpson et  al., 2021a). Striking differences exist when needs to be stopped, but only 51% expressed confidence about their comparing sub-national units within countries. Climate change literacy ability to make a difference. East Africans (63%) were almost twice as rates in Nigeria range from 71% in Kwara to 5% in Kano, and within likely as north Africans (35%) to report that the weather for growing Botswana from 69% in Lobatse to only 6% in Kweneng West (Simpson crops had worsened. Additionally, people engaged in occupations et al., 2021a). Education is the strongest positive predictor of climate related to agriculture (farming, fishing or forestry) were more likely to change literacy, particularly tertiary education, but poverty decreases report negative weather effects (59%) than those with other livelihoods climate change literacy and climate change literacy rates average (45%) (Selormey et al., 2019). Similar perceptions have been reported 12.8% lower for women than men (Simpson et al., 2021a). among a diversity of rural communities in many sub-Saharan African countries (Mahl et al., 2020; Simpson et al., 2021a). As the identified factors driving climate change literacy overlap with broader developmental challenges on the continent, policies Rural communities, particularly farmers, are the most studied targeting these factors (e.g., increased education) can potentially yield groups for climate change perception. They perceive the climate co-benefits for both climate change adaptation as well as progress to be changing, most often reporting changes in rainfall variability, towards SDGs, particularly education and gender equality (Simpson increased dry spells, decreases in rainfall and increased temperatures et al., 2021a). Progress towards greater climate change literacy affords or temperature extremes. They perceive these changes to bring a range a concrete opportunity to mainstream climate change within core of negative socioeconomic and environmental effects (Alemayehu and national and sub-national developmental agendas in Africa towards Bewket, 2017; Liverpool-Tasie et al., 2020; Simpson et al., 2021a). In more CRD pathways. Synergies with CS can also overcome gendered some cases, farmers’ perceptions of changes in weather and climate deficits, for example, although women are generally less climate frequently match climate records for decreased precipitation totals, change aware and more vulnerable to climate change than men in 1316 Africa Chapter 9 Selected examples of the co-production of climate services and the sectors involved SENEGAL 1 CHAD BURKINA FASO SUDAN 2 1 2 3 2 ETHIOPIA 5 13 17 UGANDA 2 8 21 22 24 KENYA 2 5 13 16 18 RWANDA 19 20 21 23 24 9 4 10 21 TANZANIA 7 11 12 14 15 19 21 24 Agriculture Flood risk ZAMBIA 9 MALAWI Cities Gender 6 9 14 ZIMBABWE Climate finance Health NAMIBIA 6 9 9 BOTSWANA MOZAMBIQUE Disaster Risk 6 9 Management Livestock 8 9 Energy Transport Fishing Water SOUTH AFRICA 8 9 Figure 9.12 |  The inclusive nature of co-production has had a positive influence on the uptake of climate services into decision making in Africa. Selected examples of the co-production of climate services and the sectors involved. Icons indicate sectors and numbers show the programmes under which the co-production engagements occurred. Programmes listed are (1) AMMA-2050: Combining Scenario Games, Participatory Modelling and Theatre Forums to Co-produce Climate Information for Medium-term Planning, (2,3) BRACED: Sharing Lessons on Promoting Gender Equality through a ‘Writeshop’, (4) RCSA: Bringing Climate Services to People Living in Rwanda’s Rural Areas, (5) ALP: Participatory Scenario Planning for Local Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Advisories, (6) Climate Risk Narratives: Co-producing Stories of the Future, (7) ENACTS: Developing Climate Services for Malaria Surveillance and Control in Tanzania, (8) FATHUM: Forecast for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action, (9) FRACTAL: Learning Labs, Dialogues and Embedded Researchers in Southern African Cities, (10) FONERWA: Climate Risk Screening Tool, (11) MHEWS: Multi-hazard Early Warning System for Coastal Tanzania, (12) Resilient Transport Strategic Assessment for Dar es Salaam, (13) RRA: Climate Attribution for Extreme Weather Events in Ethiopia and Kenya, (14) UMFULA: Co-producing Climate Information for Medium-term Planning in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus, (15) IRRP: Building Resilience in Tanzania’s Energy Sector Planning, (16) PRISE: Co-exploring Relevant Evidence for Policy Change in Kenya, (17) NMA ENACTS: An Example of a Co-produced Climate Service Fit for Purpose, (18) REACH: Improving Water Security for the Poor in Turkana County, Kenya, (19) DARAJA: Co-designing Weather and Climate Information Services for and with Urban Informal Settlements in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, (20) ForPAc: Co-producing Approaches to Forecast-based Early Action for Drought and Floods in Kenya, (21) HIGHWAY: Co-produced Impact-based Early Warnings and Forecasts to Support Fishing Communities on Lake Victoria, (22) HyCRISTAL: Using Video to Initiate Farmer Dialogue with Local Government in Mukono, Uganda, (23) SCIPEA: Co-produced Seasonal Forecasts for More Effective Management of Hydropower Supply in Kenya, (24) Weather Wise: Co-producing Weather and Climate Radio Content for Farmers, Fishermen and Pastoralists in East Africa. See Carter et al. (2020) for details and outcomes of each engagement. Source: Carter et al. (2020). 1317 Chapter 9 Africa Box 9.1 | Vulnerability Synthesis Vulnerability in Africa is socially, culturally and geographically differentiated among climatic regions, countries and local communities, with climate change impacting the health, livelihoods and food security of different groups to different extents (Gan et al., 2016; Onyango et al., 2016a; Gumucio et al., 2020). This synthesis emphasises intersectionality within vulnerable groups as well as their position within dynamic social and cultural contexts (Wisner, 2016; Kuran et al., 2020), and highlights the differential impacts of climate change and restricted adaptation options available to vulnerable groups across African countries (see also Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18). Vulnerability and exposure to the impacts of climate change are complex and affected by multiple, interacting non-climatic processes, which together influence risk, including socioeconomic processes (Lwasa et al., 2018; UNCTAD, 2020), resource access and livelihood changes (Jayne et al., 2019b) and intersectional vulnerability among social groups (Figure Box 9.1.1; Rao et al., 2020). Socioeconomic processes encompass broader social, economic and governance trends, such as expanded investment in large energy and transportation infrastructure projects (Adeniran and Daniell, 2020), rising external debt (Edo et al., 2020), changing role of the state in social development 9 (Wunsch, 2014), environmental management (Ramutsindela and Büscher, 2019) and conflict, as well as those emanating from climate change mitigation and adaptation projects (Beymer-Farris and Bassett, 2012; van Baalen and Mobjörk, 2018; Simpson et al., 2021b). These macro trends shape both urban and rural livelihoods, including the growing diversification of rural livelihoods through engagement in the informal sector and other non-farm activities, and are mediated by complex and intersecting factors like gender, ethnicity, class, age, disability and other dimensions of social status that influence access to resources (Luo et al., 2019). Research increasingly highlights the intersectionality of multiple dimensions of social identity and status that are associated with greater susceptibility to loss and damage (Caparoci Nogueira et al., 2018; Li et al., 2018). Arid and semi-arid countries in the Sahelian belt and the greater Horn of Africa are often identified as the most vulnerable regions on the continent (Closset et al., 2017; Serdeczny et al., 2017). Particularly vulnerable groups include pastoralists (Wangui, 2018; Ayanlade and Ojebisi, 2019), fishing communities (Belhabib et al., 2016; Muringai et al., 2019a), small-scale farmers (Ayanlade et al., 2017; Mogomotsi et al., 2020; see Section 9.8.1) and residents of formal and informal urban settlements (see Section 9.9). Research has identified key macro drivers, as well as multiple dimensions of social status that mediate differential vulnerability in different African contexts. For example, the contemporary vulnerability of small-scale rural producers in semi-arid northern Ghana has been shaped by colonial economic transformations (Ahmed et al., 2016), more recent neoliberal reforms reducing state support (Fieldman, 2011) and the disruption of local food systems due to increasing grain imports (Nyantakyi-Frimpong and Bezner-Kerr, 2015). Age interacts with other dimensions of social status, shaping differential vulnerability in several ways. Projected increases in mean temperatures and longer and more intense heat waves (Figure Box 9.1.1) may increase health risks for children and elderly populations by increasing risks associated with heat stress (Bangira et al., 2015; Cairncross et al., 2018). Temperature extremes are associated with increased risk of mortality in Ghana, Burkina Faso, Kenya and South Africa, with greatest increases among children and the elderly (Bangira et al., 2015; Amegah et al., 2016; Omonijo, 2017; Wiru et al., 2019; see Section 9.10.2.3.1). Rural African women are often disadvantaged by traditional, patriarchal decision-making processes and lack of access to land—issues compounded by kinship systems (that, is matrilineal or patrilineal), migrant status, age, type of household, livelihood orientation and disability in determining their adaptive options (Ahmed et  al., 2016; see Section  9.8.1; 9.11.1.2; Box  9.8). Differential agricultural productivity between men and women is about 20–30% or more in dryland regions of Ethiopia and Nigeria (Ghanem, 2011) and challenges women’s ability to adapt to climate change. Limited access to agricultural resources and limited benefits from agricultural policies, compounded by other social and cultural factors, make women more vulnerable to climatic risks (Shukla et al., 2021). Kinship systems can contribute to their vulnerability and capacity to adapt. Women in matrilineal systems have greater bargaining power and have access to more resources than those in patrilineal systems (Chigbu, 2019; Robinson and Gottlieb, 2021; See section 9.8.1; 9.11.1.2). 1318 Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.1 (continued) 9 Figure  Box  9.1.1 |   Factors contributing to the progression of vulnerability to climate change in African contexts considering socioeconomic processes, resource access, livelihood changes, and intersectional vulnerability among social groups. This figure reflects a synthesis of vulnerability across sections of this chapter and highlights how the interactions of multiple dimensions of vulnerability compound each other to increase overall vulnerability (Potts, 2008; 1319 Human dimensions of climate change vulnerability in Africa Socio-Economic Processes Resource Access and Livelihood Changes Intersectional and Compounding Vulnerabilities Among Social Groups Colonial Legacies and Postcolonial CCCChanging Patterns of Resource Access and Age: Elderly populations and young children are most vulnerable to health consequences of heat Development Pathways OOOOwnership waves, poor air quality, and climate disasters (Cairncross et al. 2018 (Drivdal 2016; Buyana et al. 2019) (Box 9.1). These groups might not get appropriate food, their mobility might be reduced,  Dependency on commodity exports and  Large-scale land acquisitions and transformation education options impaired, and their dependence on others, especially women caregivers may volatility of extractive economies (Hufe and Heuermann 2017) (9.6; 9.8). increase (Popoola, 2021) (Box 9.1; 9.8) (UNCTAD 2019).  Growing inequality in rural land distribution and Gender: Women farmers have limited access to state agro-advisory extension services and financial resources, and experience fewer benefits from technology adoption (Cundill et al. 2021;  Unintended consequences of investments in declining land availability within smallholder systems large-scale energy, water, and infrastructure (Jayne et al. 2019) (9.8). Theis et al. 2017) (9.3; 9.8). Discriminatory health policies, poverty, and cultural norms including projects (Adeniran and Daniell 2020; employment and household roles increase the vulnerability of women to extreme weather events Higginbottom et al. 2021).  Land fragmentation and land use intensification and impair their adaptive capacity (Ajibade et al. 2013; Djoudi and Brockhaus 2011; among smallholder farmers (Cholo et al 2018; Frick-Trzebitzky et al. 2017) (9.7; 9.8; 9.10; 9.11).  Rising external debt and debt service costs Clay and Zimmerer 2020; Rasmussen et al. 2018) Ethnicity: Ethnicity may be a factor that limits the range of adaptation options of some groups, (Edo et al. 2020) (9.11) (9.6; 9.8). either due to historical marginalization or cultural preference for specific livelihood orientations (Nielsen and Reenberg 2010; Azong and Kelso 2021; Tesfamariam and Zinyengere 2017).  Rapid urbanization (9.9; Box 9.8).  Fragmentation of dryland landscapes, constricted livestock mobility, and sedentarization among Physical ability: People with disabilities are more likely to be excluded from provision of Governance pastoralists (Mabhuye 2018; Suleiman and Young agricultural, health and education services, and livelihood options that could reduce vulnerability 2013) (9.6; 9.8). (Lunga et al. 2019; Alexander 2020; Kuper et al. 2016).  Uneven progress toward democratic decentralization and civil society LLLivelihood Diversification and Change Migrant status: Many international migrants in the region experience greater cultural and economic development (Dickovick and Wunsch, 2014; barriers to more resilient livelihoods (Anderson 2017; Adepoju 2019; Anderson et al. 2017), and Makara, 2018) (9.4.2).  Growing engagement in rural, peri-urban and urban frequently reside in poorly serviced areas that are more exposed to climate hazards (see Migration informal sector activities (Adom 2014; Allard 2017; CCB; Box 9.8).  Securitization of environmental governance Potts 2008; Chihambakwe et al. 2019; Dolislager et (Ramutsindela and Büscher 2019) (9.4.2). al. 2021) (9.9)). Wealth: Poor households are less capable of coping with climate shocks (Drivdal 2016; Buyana et al. 2019; Grasham et al. 2019) and frequently are more exposed to hazards through inadequate  Civil conflict, inadequate peacebuilding and  Rural deagrarianization with landless and land poor infrastructure, service provision, and dwelling in high-risk areas (Box 9.8; 9.11). conflict resolution structures (Adetula et al. entering low return non-farm activities (Asfaw et al. 2016; van Baalen and Mobjörk, 2018; 2017; Bryceson 2019; Headey and Jayne 2014) Examples of intersectional vulnerability: Box 9.9). (9.8; 9.11). Age-wealth intersection: many children in poor households in urban informal settlements face severe health and educational consequences when flooding halts education and produces acute  Corruption and ‘illicit’ financial flows  Stress-related and opportunistic rural out-migration (UNCTAD 2020) (9.4.2) and mobility (see Migration CCB) (Kaczan and infectious disease risks (Drivdal 2016). Orgill-Meyer, 2020; Tierney et al. 2017; Waha et al. Age-gender-ethnicity intersection: elder women experienced heightened vulnerability under Adaptation and Mitigation Actions 2017; Serdeczny eta l 2017; Lassailly-Jacob and patriarchal cultural conditions (Azong and Kelso 2021). Peyraut 2016) (Box 9.8).  Top down and exclusionary mitigation Gender-wealth intersection: women from poor households were denied access to healthcare strategies (Beymer-Ferris and Bassett 2012)  Livelihood diversification among smallholder farmers unless accompanied by a man willing to donate blood (Ajibade et al. 2013). and fishing communities (9.8)  Pathways of urban growth (Lwasa et al. Vulnerability 2018; van der Zwaan et al. 2018) (9.4.2)  Increasing variability and overall decline in catches aggregate bbii--ddirectional uni-directional in marine and inland fisheries, eroding rural  Social protection (9.11) diversification options for some (Lammers et al. Ability 2020; Lowe et al. 2019) (9.8)  Unequal access to coping mechanisms Migrant status bolstered by locally-driven, inclusive and HHaazard gender responsive adaptation (Eriksen et al. Wealth Risk 2011; Ng’ang’a and Crane 2020) Ethnicity Gender EEExposure Age Effect of driver on vulnerability increases vulnerability decreases vulnerability Response Chapter 9 Africa Box 9.1 (continued) Nielsen and Reenberg, 2010; Akresh et al., 2011; Eriksen et al., 2011; Beymer-Farris and Bassett, 2012; Davis et al., 2012; Adom, 2014; Akello, 2014; Headey and Jayne, 2014; Otzelberger, 2014; Wunsch, 2014; Conteh, 2015; Huntjens and Nachbar, 2015; Spencer, 2015; Adetula et al., 2016; Djoudi et al., 2016; Kuper et al., 2016; Stark and Landis, 2016; Allard, 2017; Anderson, 2017; Asfaw et al., 2017; Hufe and Heuermann, 2017; Hulme, 2017; Paul and wa Gĩthĩnji, 2017; Rao et al., 2017; Serdeczny et al., 2017; Tesfamariam and Zinyengere, 2017; Tierney et al., 2017; Waha et al., 2017; Chihambakwe et al., 2018; Cholo et al., 2018; Jenkins et al., 2018; Keahey, 2018; Lwasa et al., 2018; Makara, 2018; Nyasimi et al., 2018; Petesch et al., 2018; Schuman et al., 2018; Theis et al., 2018; van Baalen and Mobjörk, 2018; van der Zwaan et al., 2018; Adepoju, 2019; Adzawla et al., 2019b; Bryceson, 2019; Grasham et al., 2019; Jayne et al., 2019a; Lowe et al., 2019; Lunga et al., 2019; OGAR and Bassey, 2019; Onwutuebe, 2019; Ramutsindela and Büscher, 2019; Sulieman and Young, 2019; Torabi and Noori, 2019; Adeniran and Daniell, 2020; Alexander, 2020; Clay and Zimmerer, 2020; Devonald et al., 2020; Dolislager et al., 2020; Edo et al., 2020; Kaczan and Orgill-Meyer, 2020; Lammers et al., 2020; World Bank, 2020b; Asiama et al., 2021; Azong and Kelso, 2021; Birgen, 2021; Paalo and Issifu, 2021; Simpson et al., 2021b). Knowledge gaps on Vulnerability in Africa and Uneven Acces to Resources 9 The differential impacts of climate change and adaptation options available to vulnerable groups in Africa are a critical knowledge gap. More research is needed to examine the intersection of different dimensions of social status on climate change vulnerability in Africa (Thompson-Hall et al., 2016; Oluwatimilehin and Ayanlade, 2021). More analysis of vulnerability based on gender and other social and cultural factors is needed to fully understand the impacts of climate change, the interaction of divergent adaptive strategies, as well as the development of targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies, for example, for women in patrilineal kinship systems, people living with disabilities, youth, girls and the elderly. Finally, there is an urgent need to build capacity among those conducting vulnerability assessments, so that they are familiar with this intersectionality lens. Additional information and capacity development through education and early warning systems could enhance vulnerable groups’ ability to cope and adapt their livelihoods (Jaka and Shava, 2018). However, some groups of people may struggle to translate information into actual changes (Makate et al., 2019; McOmber et al., 2019). Lack of access to assets and social networks, for example, among older populations, are critical limitations to locally driven or autonomous adaptation and limit potential benefits from planned adaptation actions (e.g., adoption of agricultural technologies or effective use of early warning systems). There is an urgent need for societal and political change to realise potential benefits for these vulnerable groups in the long term (Nyasimi et  al., 2018). There is a need for gender-sensitive climate change policies in many African countries and gender-responsive policies, implementation plans and budgets for all local-level initiatives (Wrigley-Asante et al., 2019). Africa, they are generally more likely to adopt climate-resilient crops (Figure  9.13b), and in some regions different observed precipitation when they are climate change aware and have exposure to extension datasets disagree on the direction of rainfall trends (Panitz et al., 2013; services (Acevedo et al., 2020; Simpson et al., 2021a). Sylla et al., 2013; Contractor et al., 2020). The uncertainty of observed rainfall trends results from a number of sources, including high interannual and decadal rainfall variability, different methodologies 9.5 Observed and Projected Climate Change used in developing rainfall products, and the lack of and poor quality of rainfall station data (Figure 9.15; Gutiérrez et al., 2021). This section assesses observed and projected climate change over Africa. In Working Group I of the IPCC AR6 (WGI), four chapters make regional With increased GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to assessments of observed and projected climate change (Doblas-Reyes increase over the whole continent, as are temperature extremes et al., 2021; Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Seneviratne over most of the continent (Figure 9.16a, b). Increased mean annual et  al., 2021), which facilitates a more nuanced assessment in this rainfall is projected over the eastern Sahel, eastern east Africa and section of climate and ocean phenomena that impact African systems. central Africa (Figures 9.14; 9.16c). In contrast, reduced mean annual rainfall and increased drought (meteorological and agricultural) are projected over southwestern southern Africa and coastal north Africa, 9.5.1 Climate Hazards in Africa with drought in part as a result of increasing atmospheric evaporative demand due to higher temperatures (Figure 9.16e; Ukkola et al., 2020; Temperature increases due to human-caused climate change are Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021). The frequency and detected across Africa and many regions have warmed more rapidly intensity of heavy precipitation are projected to increase across most of than the global average (Figure  9.13a; Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). A Africa, except northern and southwestern Africa (Figures 9.14; 9.16d). signal of increased annual heatwave frequency has already emerged from the background natural climate variability over the whole Most African countries are expected to experience high temperatures continent (Figure  9.14; Engdaw et  al., 2021). However, detection of unprecedented in their recent history earlier in this century than generally statistically significant rainfall trends is evident in only a few regions wealthier, higher latitude countries (high confidence). As low latitudes 1320 Africa Chapter 9 Observed climate trends calculated for 1980–2015 (a) Temperature trend (b) Precipitation trend 9 Figure 9.13 |  Temperature increases due to human-caused climate change are detected across Africa and many regions have warmed more rapidly than the global average. Mean observed trends in (a) average temperature (°C per decade) and (b) average precipitation in (mm per decade) for 1980–2015. Trends were calculated with respect to the climatological mean over 1980–2015. The Climate Research Unit Time Series data (CRU TS) are used to compute temperature trends using 2-m temperature and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre data (GPCC) precipitation trends. Regions with no cross-hatching indicate statistically significant trends over this period and regions in grey indicate insufficient data. The figures are derived from Gutiérrez et al. (2021). have lower internal climate variability (e.g. low seasonality), the low- measured; development and running of early warning systems; latitude African countries are projected to be exposed to large increases climate projection and impact studies; and extreme event attribution in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of their studies (Harrison et al., 2019; Otto et al., 2020). historical records) earlier in the 21st century compared to generally wealthier nations at higher latitudes (Harrington et  al., 2016; Chen However, production of salient climate information in Africa is et al., 2021; Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021; Gutiérrez et al., 2021). Although hindered by limited availability of and access to weather and climate higher warming rates are projected over high latitudes during the first data, especially in central and north Africa (Figure  9.15; Coulibaly half of this century, societies and environments in low-latitude, low- et  al., 2017; Hansen et  al., 2019a). Existing weather infrastructure income countries are projected to become exposed to unprecedented remains suboptimal for development of reliable early warning climates before those in high latitude, developed countries (Frame systems (Africa Adaptation Initiative, 2018; Krell et  al., 2021). For et al., 2017; Harrington et al., 2017; Gutiérrez et al., 2021). For example, example, it is estimated only 10% of the world’s ground-based beyond 2050, in central Africa and coastal west Africa, 10 months of observation networks are in Africa, and that 54% of Africa’s surface every year will be hotter than any month in the period 1950–2000 weather stations cannot capture data accurately (Africa Adaptation under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) (Harrington et  al., 2017; Initiative, 2018; World Bank, 2020d). Some programmes are trying to Gutiérrez et al., 2021). Ambitious, near-term mitigation will provide the address this issue, including the trans-African hydro-meteorological largest reductions in exposure to unprecedented high temperatures observatory (van de Giesen et  al., 2014), the West African Science for populations in low-latitude regions, such as across tropical Africa Service Centre on Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (Harrington et al., 2016; Frame et al., 2017). (WASCAL) (Salack et al., 2019), the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change, Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) 9.5.1.1 Station Data Limitations (Kaspar et  al., 2015) and the AMMA-CATCH National Observation Service and Critical Zone Exploration Network (Galle et  al., 2018). Sustained station observation networks (Figure  9.15) are essential However, the sustainability of observation networks beyond the for the long-term analysis of local and regional climate trends, life of these programmes is uncertain as many African National including for temperature and rainfall, as well as: the calibration of Meteorological and Hydrology Services experience structural, financial satellite-derived climate products; development of gridded climate and technical barriers to maintaining these systems (Section 9.4.5). datasets using interpolated and blended station–satellite products that form the baseline from which climate change departures are 1321 Chapter 9 Africa Summary of confidence in direction of projected change in climate impact drivers in Africa Climate impact drivers Regions Heat Wet Snow Coastal MED* and cold and dry Wind and ice and oceanic Other SAH WAF NEAF CAF SEAF * North Africa is not an official region of IPCC AR6, but assessment WSAF ESAF MDG here is based upon the African portions of the Mediterranean region. 9 North Africa (MED)* 3 – 4 Sahara (SAH) – – 4 Western Africa (WAF) 1 1 1 1 – – 4 Central Africa (CAF) – – 4 North Eastern Africa (NEAF) 1, 2 1 1 1 – 4 South Eastern Africa (SEAF) 1 1 1 1 3 4 West Southern Africa (WSAF) – – 4 East Southern Africa (ESAF) 3 – 4, 5 Madagascar (MDG) 3 – 4, 5 High confidence of increase Already emerged in the historical period Medium confidence of increase Emerging by 2050 at least in scenarios RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 Low confidence in direction of change 1 = Contrasted regional signal: drying in western portions and wettening in eastern portions Medium confidence of decrease 2 = Likely increase over the Ethiopian Highlands High confidence of decrease 3 = Medium confidence of decrease in frequency and increase in intensity 4 = Along sandy coasts and in the absence of additional sediment sinks/sources or any physical barriers to shoreline retreat – = Not broadly relevant 5 = Substantial parts of the ESAF and MDG coasts are projected to prograde if present-day ambient shoreline change rates continue Figure 9.14 |  Summary of confidence in the direction of projected change in climate impact drivers (CIDs) in Africa. Projected changes represent the aggregate changes characteristic for mid-century for a range of scenarios, including: medium emission scenarios RCP4.5, SSP3-4.5, Scenario A1B from Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), or higher emissions scenarios (e.g., RCP8.5, SSP5-RCP8.5), within each AR6 WGI region (inset map) approximately corresponding to global warming levels between 2°C and 2.4°C (for CIDs that are independent of sea level rise). CIDs are drivers of impacts that are of climatic origin (that is, physical climate system conditions including means and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. The table also includes the assessment of observed or projected time-of-emergence of the CID change signal from the natural interannual variability if found with at least medium confidence (dots). Emergence of a climate change signal or trend refers to when a change in climate (the ‘signal’) becomes larger than the amplitude of natural or internal variations (the ‘noise’). The figure is a modified version of Table 12.3 in Chapter 12 of WGI (Ranasinghe et al., 2021), please see this chapter for definitions of the various climate impact drivers and the basis for confidence levels of the assessment. Please note these WGI regions do not directly correspond to the regionalisation in this chapter nor do we assess climate risks for Madagascar. 9.5.2 North Africa over the Sahara and the Sahel (Fontaine et  al., 2013; Moron et  al., 2016). Trends in mean maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures 9.5.2.1 Temperature range between +2°C and +3°C per century over north Africa, and the frequencies of hot days (TX > 90th percentile, TX90p) and tropical nights 9.5.2.1.1 Observations (TN > 20°C), as well as the frequencies of warm days and nights, roughly follow these mean TX and TN trends (Fontaine et al., 2013; Moron et al., Mean and seasonal temperatures have increased at twice the global rate 2016; Ranasinghe et  al., 2021; Seneviratne et  al., 2021). Warm spell over most regions in north Africa due to human-induced climate change duration has increased in many north African countries (Donat et  al., (Ranasinghe et  al., 2021; Figures  9.13a and; 9.14) (high confidence). 2014a; Filahi et al., 2016; Lelieveld et al., 2016; Nashwan et al., 2018) Increasing temperature trends have been particularly strong since the and heatwave magnitude and spatial extent have increased across north 1970s (between 0.2°C per decade and 0.4°C per decade), especially in Africa since 1980, with an increase in the number of events since 2000 the summer (Tanarhte et al., 2012; Donat et al., 2014a; Lelieveld et al., that is beyond the level of natural climate variability (Russo et al., 2016; 2016). Similar warming signals have been observed since the mid-1960s Ceccherini et al., 2017; Engdaw et al., 2021). 1322 Mean air temperature Extreme heat Cold spell Frost Mean precipitation River flood Heavy precipitation & pluvial flood Landslide Aridity Hydrological drought Agricultural & ecological drought Fire weather Mean wind speed Severe wind storm Tropical cyclone Sand and dust storm Snow, glacier and ice sheet Hail Relative sea level Coastal flood Coastal erosion Marine heatwave Ocean acidity Air pollution weather Atmospheric CO2 at surface Radiation at surface Africa Chapter 9 Large regions of Africa lack regularly reporting and quality-controlled weather station data (a) Distribution of weather stations since 1950 (b) Number of weather stations since 1950 1,800 1,600 1,400 9 x Stations that were still active in 2017 1,200 1,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Figure 9.15 |  Large regions of Africa lack regularly reporting and quality-controlled weather station data. This figure shows stations in Africa with quality-controlled station data used in developing the Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network (REGEN) interpolated rainfall product (Harrison et al., 2019). (a) A spatial representation of stations across the continent since 1950 shown as black dots and red crosses, where red crosses represent stations that were still active in 2017. (b) The decline in operational stations or stations with quality-controlled data since circa 1998, which is largely a function of declining networks in a subset of countries. Figure is derived from Carter et al. (2020). 9.5.2.1.2 Projections 9.5.2.2 Precipitation At 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, 9.5.2.2.1 Observations mean annual temperatures in north Africa are projected to be on average, 0.9°C, 1.5°C and 2.6°C warmer than the 1994–2005 average, Mean annual precipitation decreased over most of north Africa respectively (Figure  9.16a). Warming is projected to be stronger in between 1971–2000 (Donat et al., 2014a; Hertig et al., 2014; Nicholson summer than winter (Lelieveld et al., 2016; Dosio, 2017). The number et al., 2018; Zittis, 2018), with a gradual recovery to normal or wetter of hot days is likely to increase by up to 90% by the end of the century conditions in Algeria and Tunisia since 2000 and over Morocco since under RCP8.5 (global warming level [GWL] 4.4°C) (Gutiérrez et  al., 2008 (Nouaceur and Murărescu, 2016). Since the 1960s days with more 2021; Ranasinghe et  al., 2021) and hot nights and the duration of than 10 mm of rainfall have decreased and the number of consecutive warm spells to increase in the first half of the 21st century in both dry days have increased in the eastern parts of north Africa, while in the intermediate and high-emission scenarios (Patricola and Cook, 2010; western parts of north Africa heavy rainfall and flooding has increased Vizy and Cook, 2012; Lelieveld et al., 2016; Dosio, 2017; Filahi et al., (Donat et  al., 2014a). Aridity, the ratio of potential evaporation to 2017). Heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and intense precipitation, has increased over the Mediterranean and north Africa even at 1.5°C of global warming (Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe due to significant decreases in precipitation (Greve et al., 2019). et  al., 2021). Children born in 2020, under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario will be exposed to 4–6  times more heatwaves in their 9.5.2.2.2 Projections lifetimes compared to people born in 1960; this exposure increases to 9–10 times more heatwaves for emission reduction pledges, limiting Mean annual precipitation is projected to decrease in north Africa at global warming to 2.4°C (Thiery et al., 2021). warming levels of 2°C and higher (high confidence) with the most pronounced decreases in the northwestern parts (Figures 9.13a and; 9.14; Schilling et al., 2012; Filahi et al., 2017; Barcikowska et al., 2018; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). Meteorological drought over Mediterranean north Africa in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are projected to increase in duration from approximately 2  months during 1950–2014 to approximately 4 months in the period 2050–2100 under RCP8.5 and 1323 Chapter 9 Africa Projected changes + 1.5°C + 2.0°C + 3.0°C of climate variables and hazards (relative to 1995–2014 average) at 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial (1850–1900) (a) Mean temperature change (°C) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 (b) 9 Change in the number of days per year above 35°C 1 16 31 46 60 75 90 105 (c) Mean annual precipitation change (%) -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 (d) Change in heavy precipitation represented by annual maximum 5-day precipitation change (%) -20 -5 10 25 40 55 70 (e) Change in drought represented by six-month standardised precipitation index change (%) -65 -50 -35 -20 -5 10 25 40 55 70 85 (f) Mean sea surface temperature change (°C) 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 > 2.5 Figure 9.16 |  Projected changes of climate variables and hazards at 1.5°, 2° and 3° of global warming above the pre-industrial period (1850–1900). 1324 Africa Chapter 9 Changes shown here are relative to the 1995–2014 period. Rows are (a) Mean temperature change (°C); (b) Change in the number of days per year above 35°C (days); (c) Mean annual rainfall change (%); (d) Heavy precipitation change represented by annual maximum 5-day precipitation (%); (e) Change in drought represented by the six-month standardised precipitation index (SPI) (%) – negative changes indicate areas where drought frequency, intensity and/or duration is projected to increase and positive changes show the opposite; (f) Mean sea surface temperature change (°C). All figures are derived from the WGI Interactive Atlas and show results from between 26 to 33 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) global climate models depending on the climate variable. CMIP6 models include improved representations of physical, biological, and chemical processes as well as higher spatial resolutions compared to previous CMIP5 models (Eyring et al., 2021). Robustness of the projected change signal is indicated by hatching – no overlay indicates high model agreement, where at least 80% of models agree on sign of change; diagonal lines (/) indicate low model agreement, where fewer than 80% of models agree on sign of change. NOTE: Model agreement is computed at a gridbox level and is not representative of regionally aggregated results over larger regions (Gutiérrez et al., 2021). SSP5-85 (Ukkola et  al., 2020). Extreme rainfall (monthly maximum be almost double the 1981–2010 average at GWL 2°C (Dosio, 2017; 1-day rainfall – RX1 day) in the region is projected to decrease (Donat Bathiany et al., 2018; Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). 9 et al., 2019). Heatwave frequency and intensity are projected to increase under all scenarios, but limiting global warming to 1.5°C leads to a decreased During 1984–2012, north Africa experienced a decreasing dust trend heatwave magnitude (–35%) and frequency (–37%) compared to 2°C with north African dust explaining more than 60% of global dust global warming (Dosio, 2017; Weber et  al., 2018; Nangombe et  al., variations (Shao et al., 2013). Dust loadings and related air pollution 2019). Children born in 2020, under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario will hazards (from fine particles that affect health) are projected to be exposed to 4–6 times more heatwaves in their lifetimes compared decrease in many regions of the Sahara as a result of decreased wind to people born in 1960; this exposure increases to 7–9  times more speeds (Evan et al., 2016; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). heatwaves at GWL 2.4°C (Thiery et al., 2021). The number of dangerous heat days (TX >40.6°C) is projected to 9.5.3 West Africa increase from approximately 60 per year in 1985–2005 to approximately 110, 130 and 140 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, in 9.5.3.1 Temperature the 2060s and to 105, 145 and 196 in the 2090s (Rohat et al., 2019). Over tropical west Africa, heat-related mortality risk through increased 9.5.3.1.1 Observations heat and humidity is 6–9 times higher than the 1950–2005 average at GWL 2°C, 8–15 times at GWL 2.65°C and 15–30 times at GWL 4.12°C Observed mean annual and seasonal temperatures have increased (Ahmadalipour and Moradkhani, 2018) (Coffel et al., 2018). The number 1–3°C since the mid-1970s with the highest increases in the Sahara and of potentially lethal heat days per year is projected to increase from <50 Sahel (Figures 9.13a; Cook and Vizy, 2015; Lelieveld et al., 2016; Dosio, during 1995–2005 to 50–150 at GWL 1.6°C, 100–250 at GWL 2.5°C 2017; Nikiema et  al., 2017; Gutiérrez et  al., 2021; Ranasinghe et  al., and 250–350 at GWL 4.4°C, with highest increases in coastal regions 2021) and positive trends in mean annual maximum (TX) and minimum (Mora et al., 2017). Increasing urbanisation concentrates this exposure (TN) of 0.16°C and 0.28°C per decade, respectively (Mouhamed et al., in cities, such as Lagos, Niamey, Kano and Dakar (Section 9.9.3.1; Coffel 2013; Moron et al., 2016; Russo et al., 2016; Barry et al., 2018). The et al., 2018; Rohat et al., 2019). frequency of very hot days (TX > 35°C) and tropical nights has increased by 1–9 days and 4–13 nights per decade between 1961–2014 (Moron 9.5.3.2 Precipitation et al 2016), and cold nights have become less frequent (Fontaine et al., 2013; Mouhamed et al., 2013; Barry et al., 2018). In the 21st century, 9.5.3.2.1 Observations heatwaves have become hotter, longer and more extended compared to the last two decades of the 20th century (Mouhamed et al., 2013; Negative trends in rainfall accompanied by increased rainfall variability Moron et al., 2016; Russo et al., 2016; Barbier et al., 2018). were observed between 1960s–1980s over west Africa (Nicholson et  al., 2018; Thomas and Nigam, 2018), caused by a combination 9.5.3.1.2 Projections of anthropogenic aerosols and GHGs emitted between the 1950s and1980s (Booth et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2016; Giannini and Kaplan, At 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, 2019; Douville et al., 2021). Declining rainfall trends ended by 1990 mean annual temperatures in west Africa are projected to be on due to the growing influence of GHGs and reduced cooling effect average, 0.6°C, 1.1°C and 2.1°C warmer than the 1994–2005 average, of aerosol emissions, with a trend to wetter conditions emerging in respectively (Figure  9.16a). Under mid- and high-emission scenarios the mid-1990s accompanied by more intense, but fewer precipitation end of century summer temperatures are projected to increase by 2°C events (Sanogo et al., 2015; Sylla et al., 2016; Kennedy et al., 2017; and 5°C, respectively (Sylla et  al., 2015a; Russo et  al., 2016; Dosio, Barry et  al., 2018; Bichet and Diedhiou, 2018a; 2018b; Thomas and 2017). The annual number of hot days is projected to increase at all Nigam, 2018). A shift to a later onset and end of the west African global warming levels with larger increases at higher warming levels monsoon is also reported in west Africa and Sahel (low confidence) (Figure  9.16b). By 2060 the frequency of hot nights is projected to (Chen et  al., 2021; Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). Between 1981–2014 1325 Chapter 9 Africa the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel have experienced more intense 9.5.4 Central Africa precipitation events (Panthou et al., 2014; Bichet and Diedhiou, 2018a; Panthou et al., 2018) and the frequency of mesoscale storms has tripled 9.5.4.1 Temperature (Taylor et al., 2017; Callo-Concha, 2018). Extreme heavy precipitation indices show increasing trends from 1981–2010 (Barry et al., 2018), 9.5.4.1.1 Observations increasing high flow events in large Sahelian rivers as well as small to mesoscale catchments leading to pluvial and riverine flooding Mean annual temperature across central Africa has increased by (Douville et  al., 2021). Meteorological, agricultural and hydrological 0.75°C–1.2°C since 1960 (Aloysius et al., 2016; Gutiérrez et al., 2021). drought in the region has increased in frequency since the 1950s The number of hot days, heatwaves and heatwave days increased (medium confidence) (Seneviratne et al., 2021). between 1979–2016 (Hu et  al., 2019) and cold extremes have decreased (Figure 9.14; Aguilar et al., 2009; Seneviratne et al., 2021). 9.5.3.2.1 Projections Uncertainties associated with the poor ground-based observation networks in the region and associated observational uncertainties West African rainfall projections show a gradient of precipitation decrease (Section 9.5.1.1) result in an assessment of medium confidence in an 9 in the west and increase in the east (medium confidence) (Figure 9.14; increase in the number of heat extremes over the region. Dosio et al., 2021; Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). This pattern is evident at 1.5°C of global warming and the magnitude of 9.5.4.2 Projections change increases at higher warming levels (Figure  9.16c; Schleussner et al., 2016b; Kumi and Abiodun, 2018; Sylla et al., 2018). A reduction in At 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, length of the rainy season is projected over the western Sahel through mean annual temperatures in central Africa are projected to be on delayed rainfall onset by 4–6 days at global warming levels of 1.5°C average, 0.6°C, 1.1°C and 2.1°C warmer than the 1994–2005 average, and 2°C (Kumi and Abiodun, 2018; Douville et al., 2021; Gutiérrez et al., respectively (Figure  9.16a). By the end of the century (2070–2099), 2021). Although there are uncertainties in rainfall projections over the warming of 2°C (RCP4.5 ) to 4°C (RCP8.5) is projected over the region Sahel (Klutse et al., 2018; Gutiérrez et al., 2021), CMIP6 models project (Aloysius et al., 2016; Fotso-Nguemo et al., 2017; Diedhiou et al., 2018; monsoon rainfall amounts to increase by approximately 2.9% per Mba et al., 2018; Tamoffo et al., 2019) and the number of days with degree of warming (Jin et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020a), therefore, at maximum temperature exceeding 35°C is projected to increase by higher levels of warming and towards the end of the century, a wetter 150 days or more at GWL 4.4°C (Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe monsoon is projected in the eastern Sahel (medium confidence). et al., 2021). According to CMIP6 and CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) models, the annual average number The frequency and intensity of extremely heavy precipitation are projected of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35°C will increase to increase under mid- and high-emission scenarios (Figures 9.13a; 9.14; between 14–27 days at GWL 2°C and 33–59 days at GWL 3°C above Sylla et al., 2015b; Diallo et al., 2016; Akinsanola and Zhou, 2019; Giorgi the 61–63  days for 1995– 2014 (Gutiérrez et  al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2019; Dosio et al., 2021; Li et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021). et  al., 2021) (high confidence). The number of heatwave days is However, heavy rainfall statistics from global and regional climate models projected to increase and extreme heatwave events may last longer may be conservative as very-high-resolution, convection-permitting than 180 days at GWL 4.1°C (Dosio, 2017; Weber et al., 2018; Spinoni climate models simulate more intense rainfall than these models (Stratton et al., 2019). Children born in 2020, under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario et al., 2018; Berthou et al., 2019; Han et al., 2019; Kendon et al., 2019). will be exposed to 6–8  times more heatwaves in their lifetimes compared to people born in 1960; this exposure increases to 7–9 times At 2°C global warming, west Africa is projected to experience a drier, more heatwaves at GWL 2.4°C (Thiery et  al., 2021). The number of more drought-prone and arid climate, especially in the last decades of potentially lethal heat days per year is projected to increase from <50 the 21st century (Sylla et al., 2016; Zhao and Dai, 2016; Klutse et al., during 1995–2005 to 50–75 at GWL 1.6°C, 100–150 at GWL 2.5°C 2018). The duration of meteorological drought in the western parts of and 200–350 at GWL 4.4°C (Mora et al., 2017). West Africa is projected to increase from approximately 2 months during 1950–2014 to approximately 4 months in the period 2050–2100 under 9.5.4.2 Precipitation RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 (Ukkola et al., 2020). Increased intensity of heavy precipitation events combined with increasing drought occurrences will 9.5.4.2.1 Observations substantially increase the cumulative hydroclimatic stress on populations in west Africa during the late 21st century (Giorgi et al., 2019). The severe lack of station data over the region leads to large uncertainty in the estimation of observed rainfall trends and low confidence in changes in extreme rainfall (Figure  9.13b; Creese and Washington, 2018; Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). There is some evidence of drying since the mid-20th century through decreased mean rainfall and increased precipitation deficits (Gutiérrez et  al., 2021), as well as increases in meteorological, agricultural and ecological drought (medium confidence) (Seneviratne et  al., 2021). However, there is spatial heterogeneity in annual rainfall trends between 1983– 2010 ranging from −10 to +39 mm per year (Maidment et al., 2015), 1326 Africa Chapter 9 with a decline in mean seasonal April–June precipitation of −69 mm > 40.6 °C) compared to 1985–2005 including Blantyre-Limbe, Lusaka per year in most regions except in the northwest (Zhou et al., 2014; and Kampala (Mora et al., 2017; Rohat et al., 2019). Children born in Hua et al., 2016; Klotter et al., 2018; Hu et al., 2019). Southern and 2020, under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario will be exposed to 3–5 times eastern central Africa were identified as drought hotspots between more heatwaves in their lifetimes compared to people born in 1960; 1991–2010 (Spinoni et al., 2014). this exposure increases to 4–9 times more heatwaves at GWL 2.4°C (Thiery et  al., 2021). The number of potentially lethal heat days per 9.5.4.2.2 Projections year is projected to increase from <50 during 1995–2005 to <50 at GWL 1.6°C, 50–120 at GWL 2.5°C and 150–350 at GWL 4.4°C with Under low emission scenarios and at GWL 1.5°C and GWL 2°C there largest increases at the coast (Mora et al., 2017), highlighting the new is low confidence in projected mean rainfall change over the region emergence of dangerous heat conditions in these areas. (Figure 9.16c). At GWL 3°C and GWL 4.4°C, an increased mean annual rainfall of 10–25% is projected by regional climate models (Coppola 9.5.5.2 Precipitation et al., 2014; Pinto et al., 2015) and the intensity of extreme precipitation will increase (high confidence) (Figure  9.16c, d; Sylla et  al., 2015a; 9.5.5.2.1 Observations Diallo et al., 2016; Dosio et al., 2019; Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe 9 et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021). This is projected to increase the Over equatorial east Africa the short rains (October–November– likelihood of widespread flood occurrences before, during and after the December) have shown a long-term wetting trend from the 1960s until mature monsoon season (Figure 9.14). present (Manatsa and Behera, 2013; Nicholson, 2015; 2017), which is linked with western Indian Ocean warming and a steady intensification Convection-permitting simulations (4.5 km spatial resolution) simulate of Indian Ocean Walker Cell (Liebmann et al., 2014; Nicholson, 2015). increased dry spell length not apparent at coarser resolutions, suggesting drying in addition to more intense extreme rainfall (Stratton et  al., In contrast, the long rainfall season (March–April–May) has experienced 2018). Although reduced drought frequency is indicated in Figure 9.16e, a long-term drying trend between 1986 and 2007, with rainfall declines the SPI metric does not account for the effect of increased temperature in each of these months and a shortening of the wet season (Rowell et al., on drought (increased moisture deficit), and metrics that account for 2015; Wainwright et  al., 2019). Unlike previous decades, since around this indicate slightly increased drought frequency or no change (Spinoni 2000, the long rains have exhibited a significant relationship with the El et al., 2020). Therefore, there is low confidence in projected changes of Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Park et al., 2020), as multiple droughts drought frequency over the region (Figure 9.14). have occurred during recent La Niña events and when the western to central Pacific sea surface temperature gradient was La Niña-like (Funk et al., 2015; Funk et al., 2018a). Wetter-than-average rainfall years within 9.5.5 East Africa this long-term drying trend are often associated with a stronger amplitude of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (Vellinga and Milton, 2018). 9.5.5.1 Temperature In the northern, summer rainfall region (June–September), a decline 9.5.5.1.1 Observations in rainfall occurred in the 1960s and rainfall has remained relatively low, while interannual variability has increased since the late 1980s Mean temperatures over the region have increased by 0.7°C–1°C (Nicholson, 2017); the cause of this drying trend is uncertain. from 1973 to 2013, depending on the season (Ayugi and Tan, 2018; Camberlin, 2018). Increases in TX and TN are evident across the region Since 2005, drought frequency has doubled from once every 6 to accompanied by significantly increasing trends of warm nights, warm once every 3  years and has become more severe during the long days and warm spells (Russo et al., 2016; Gebrechorkos et al., 2019; and summer rainfall seasons than during the short rainfall season Nashwan and Shahid, 2019). The greatest increases are found in (Ayana et al., 2016; Gebremeskel Haile et al., 2019). Several prolonged northern and central regions. droughts have occurred predominantly within the arid and semi-arid parts of the region over the past three decades (Nicholson, 2017). 9.5.5.1.2 Projections 9.5.5.2.2 Projections At 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, mean annual temperatures in east Africa are projected to be on Higher mean annual rainfall, particularly in the eastern parts of east average, 0.6°C, 1.1°C and 2.1°C warmer than the 1994–2005 average, Africa are projected at GWL 1.5°C and 2°C by 25 CORDEX models respectively (Figure 9.16a). Highest increases are projected over the (Nikulin et  al., 2018; Osima et  al., 2018). The additional 0.5°C of northern and central parts of the region and the lowest increase warming from 1.5°C increases average dry spell duration by between over the coastal regions (Otieno and Anyah, 2013; Dosio, 2017). The two and four days, except over southern Somalia where this is reduced magnitude and frequency of hot days are projected to increase from by between 2–3  days (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018; Nikulin et  al., GWL 2°C and above with larger increases at higher GWLs (Figure 9.16a, 2018; Osima et al., 2018; Weber et al., 2018). b; Dosio, 2017; Bathiany et al., 2018; Dosio et al., 2018; Kharin et al., 2018). At GWL 4.6°C a number of east African cities are projected to During the short rainy season, a longer rainfall season (Gudoshava have an up to 2000-fold increase in exposure to dangerous heat (days et  al., 2020) and increased rainfall of over 100 mm on average is 1327 Chapter 9 Africa projected over the eastern Horn of Africa and regions of high/complex with low mitigation (Iyakaremye et al., 2021). Children born in 2020, topography at GWL 4.5°C (Dunning et al., 2018; Endris et al., 2019; under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario will be exposed to 3–4  times Ogega et al., 2020). more heatwaves in their lifetimes compared to people born in 1960, although in Angola this is 7–8  times; at GWL 2.4°C this exposure During the long rainy season, there is low confidence in projected increases to 5–9 times more heatwaves (>10 times in Angola) (Thiery mean rainfall change (Gutiérrez et al., 2021). Although some studies et al., 2021). report projected increased end of century rainfall (Otieno and Anyah, 2013; Kent et al., 2015), the mechanisms responsible for this are not 9.5.6.2 Precipitation well-understood and a recent regional model study has detected no significant change (Cook et al., 2020b). Projected wetting is opposite 9.5.6.2.1 Observations to the observed drying trends, giving rise to the ‘east African rainfall paradox’ (Rowell et al., 2015; Wainwright et al., 2019). In other parts Mean annual rainfall increased over parts of Namibia, Botswana and of east Africa, no significant trend is evident (Ogega et  al., 2020), southern Angola during 1980–2015 by between 128 and 256 mm agreement on the sign of change is low, and in some regions, CMIP5 (Figure 9.13b). Since the 1960s, decreasing precipitation trends have 9 and CORDEX data show opposite signs of change (Lyon et al., 2017; been detected over the South African winter rainfall region (high Lyon and Vigaud, 2017; Osima et al., 2018; Kendon et al., 2019; Ogega confidence) and the far eastern parts of South Africa (low confidence) et al., 2020). (Engelbrecht et  al., 2009; Kruger and Nxumalo, 2017b; Burls et  al., 2019; Lakhraj-Govender and Grab, 2019; Gutiérrez et  al., 2021; Heavy rainfall events are projected to increase over the region at Ranasinghe et al., 2021). The frequency of dry spells and agricultural global warming of 2°C and higher (high confidence) (Nikulin et  al., drought in the region has increased over the period 1961–2016 (Yuan 2018; Finney et al., 2020; Ogega et al., 2020; Li et al., 2021). Drought et al., 2018; Seneviratne et al., 2021), the frequency of meteorological frequency, duration and intensity are projected to increase in Sudan, drought increased by between 2.5–3 events per decade since 1961 South Sudan, Somalia and Tanzania but decrease or not change over (Spinoni et al 2019) and the probability of the multi-year drought over Kenya, Uganda and the Ethiopian Highlands (Liu et al., 2018c; Nguvava the southwestern cape of South Africa increased by a factor of three et al., 2019; Haile et al., 2020; Spinoni et al., 2020). (95% confidence interval 1.5–6) in response to global warming (Otto et al., 2018). The number and intensity of extreme precipitation events have increased over the last century (Kruger and Nxumalo, 2017b; 9.5.6 Southern Africa Ranasinghe et  al., 2021; Sun et  al., 2021), and in the Karoo region of southern South Africa, long-term station data show an increasing 9.5.6.1 Temperature trend in annual rainfall of greater than 5 mm per decade over the period 1921–2015 (Kruger and Nxumalo, 2017b). 9.5.6.1.1 Observations 9.5.6.2.2 Projections Mean annual temperatures over the region increased by between 1.04°C and 1.44°C over the period 1961–2015 depending on the Mean annual rainfall in the summer rainfall region is projected to observational dataset (Gutiérrez et  al., 2021) and, in northern decrease by 10–20%, accompanied by an increase in the number of Botswana and Zimbabwe, they have increased by 1.6°C–1.8°C consecutive dry days during the rainy season under RCP8.5 (Kusangaya between 1961–2010 (Engelbrecht et al 2015). The annual number of et  al., 2014; Engelbrecht et  al., 2015; Lazenby et  al., 2018; Maúre hot days have increased in southern Africa over the last four decades et al., 2018; Spinoni et al., 2019). The western parts of the region are (Ceccherini et al., 2017; Kruger and Nxumalo, 2017a; 2017b) and there projected to become drier, with increasing drought frequency, intensity is increasing evidence of increased heat stress impacting agriculture and duration likely under RCP8.5 (high confidence) (Figures 9.16c, e; and human health (Section 9.10.2). The occurrence of cold extremes, 9.14; Engelbrecht et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2018b; 2018c; Ukkola et al., including frost days, have decreased (Figure 9.14; Kruger and Nxumalo, 2020), including multi-year droughts (Zhao and Dai, 2016; Dosio, 2017b). 2017). 9.5.6.1.2 Projections Dryness in the summer rainfall region is expected to increase at 1.5°C and higher levels of global warming (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) and At 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, together with higher temperatures will enhance evaporation from the mean annual temperatures in southern Africa are projected to be region’s mega-dams and reduce soil-moisture content (Section 9.7.1; on average, 1.2°C, 2.3°C and 3.3°C warmer than the 1994–2005 Engelbrecht et al., 2015). Increases in drought frequency and duration average respectively (Figure 9.16a). The annual number of heatwaves are projected over large parts of southern Africa at GWL 1.5°C (Liu is projected to increase by between 2–4 (GWL 1.5°C), 4–8 (GWL 2°C) et  al., 2018b; 2018c; Seneviratne et  al., 2021) and unprecedented and 8–12 (GWL 3°C) and hot and very hot days are virtually certain to extreme droughts (compared to the 1981–2010 period) emerge at increase under 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming (Engelbrecht et al., GWL 2°C (Spinoni et  al., 2021). Meteorological drought duration is 2015; Russo et al., 2016; Dosio, 2017; Weber et al., 2018; Seneviratne projected to increase from approximately 2 months during 1950–2014 et al., 2021). Cold days and cold extremes are projected to decrease to approximately 4 months in the mid-to-late-21st century future under under all emission scenarios with the strongest decreases associated RCP8.5 (Ukkola et al., 2020). Heavy precipitation in the southwestern 1328 Africa Chapter 9 region is projected to decrease (Donat et al., 2019) and increase in the Rouault, 2005). The SAM shows a systematic positive trend over the eastern parts of southern Africa at all warming levels (Li et al., 2021; last five decades (Niang et al., 2014). Seneviratne et al., 2021). There is no clear indication that climate change will impact the frequencies of ENSO and IOD (Stevenson et  al., 2012; Endris et  al., 9.5.7 Tropical Cyclones 2019), although there is some indication that extreme ENSO events and extreme phases of the IOD, particularly the positive phase, may There is limited evidence of an increased frequency of Category 5 become more frequent with implications for extreme events associated tropical cyclones in the southwestern Indian Ocean (Fitchett et al., 2016; with these features, such as drought (Collins et al., 2019; Cai et al., Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021) and more frequent 2021; Seneviratne et  al., 2021). Under high-emission scenarios, a landfall of tropical cyclones over central to northern Mozambique positive trend in SAM is projected to continue through the 21st century, (Malherbe et  al., 2013; Muthige et  al., 2018). There is a projected however, under low emission scenarios, this trend is projected to be decrease in the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in the weak or even negative given the potential for ozone hole recovery region at 1°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming, however, they are (Arblaster et al., 2011). projected to become more intense with higher wind speeds so when 9 they do make landfall the impacts are expected to be high (medium confidence) (Malherbe et al., 2013; Muthige et al., 2018; Ranasinghe 9.5.10 African Marine Heatwaves et al., 2021). Marine heatwaves are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months and can extend up to 9.5.8 Glaciers thousands of kilometres (Hobday et al., 2016; Scannell et al., 2016), negatively impacting marine ecosystems (Section 9.6.1.4). Total glacial area on Mount Kenya decreased by 121 × 103 m2 (44%) during 2004–2016 (Prinz et al., 2016), Kilimanjaro from 4.8 km2 in 1984 The number of marine heatwaves doubled in mediterranean north to 1.7 km2 in 2011 (Cullen et al., 2013) and in the Rwenzori Mountains Africa and along the Somalian and southern African coastlines from from ~2 km2 in 1987 to ~1 km2 in 2003 (Taylor et al., 2006). Declining 1982–2016 (Frölicher et  al., 2018; Oliver et  al., 2018; Laufkötter glacial areas in east Africa are linked to rising air temperatures (Taylor et  al., 2020), very likely as a result of human-caused climate et  al., 2006; Hastenrath, 2010; Veettil and Kamp, 2019), and in the change (Seneviratne et  al., 2021). Marine heatwave intensity has case of Kilimanjaro and Mount Kenya, declining precipitation and increased along the southern African coastline (Oliver et al., 2018). atmospheric moisture (Mölg et al., 2009a; 2009b; Prinz et al., 2016; In the ecologically sensitive region west of southern Madagascar, the Veettil and Kamp, 2019). longest and most intense marine heatwave in the past 35 years was recorded during the austral summer of 2017 in the region, it lasted Glacial ice cover is projected to disappear before 2030 on the Rwenzori 48 days and reached a maximum intensity of 3.44°C above the 35- Mountains (Taylor et al., 2006) and Mount Kenya (Prinz et al., 2018) year average (Mawren et al., 2021). Satellite-derived measurements and by 2040 on Kilimanjaro (Cullen et al., 2013). The loss of glaciers is of coastal marine heatwaves may under-report their intensity as expected to result in a loss in tourism revenues, especially in mountain measured against coastal in situ measurements (Schlegel et  al., tourism (Wang and Zhou, 2019). 2017). Sea surface temperatures around Africa are projected to increase by 9.5.9 Teleconnections and Large-Scale Drivers of African 0.5°C–1.3°C for 1.5°C global warming and increase by 1.3°C–2.0°C Climate Variability for 3°C global warming (Figure  9.16 f). Globally, 87% of observed marine heatwaves have been attributed to human-caused global The ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode warming, and at 2°C of global warming, nearly all marine heatwaves (SAM) are the primary large-scale drivers of African seasonal and would be attributable to heating of the climate caused by human interannual climate variability. The diurnal temperature range tends to activities (Frölicher et al., 2018; Laufkötter et al., 2020). Increases in be greater during La Niña than El Niño in northeastern Africa (Hurrell frequency, intensity, spatial extent and duration of marine heatwaves et al., 2003; Donat et al., 2014a), and in southern Africa, the El Niño are projected for all coastal zones of Africa. At 1°C and 3.5°C of warming effect has been stronger for more recent times (1979–2016) global warming, the probability of marine heatwave days is between compared to earlier period (1940–1978) (Lakhraj-Govender and Grab, 4–15  times and 30–60  times higher compared to the pre-industrial 2019). In east Africa, ENSO and IOD exert an interannual control (1861–1880) 99th percentile probability, with highest increases over on particularly October–November–December (short rains) and equatorial and sub-tropical coastal regions (Figure 9.16; Frölicher et al., June–July–August–September seasons. In southern Africa, El Niño is 2018). These events are expected to overwhelm the ability of marine associated with negative rainfall and positive temperature anomalies organisms and ecosystems to adapt to these changes (Section 9.6.1; with the opposite true for La Niña. The SAM exerts control on rainfall Frölicher et  al., 2018). Reducing emissions and limiting warming to in the southwestern parts of the region and a positive SAM mode is lower levels reduces risk to these systems (high confidence) (Hoegh- often associated with lower seasonal rainfall in the region (Reason and Guldberg et al., 2018). 1329 Chapter 9 Africa Box 9.2 | Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge This box aims to map the diversity of Indigenous Knowledge and local knowledge systems in Africa and highlights the potential of this knowledge to enable sustainability and effective climate adaptation. This box builds on the framing of the IPCC system for which ‘indigenous knowledge (IK) refers to the understandings, skills and philosophies developed by societies with long histories of interaction with their natural surroundings’ (IPCC, 2019b), while ‘local knowledge (LK) refers to the understandings and skills developed by individuals and populations, specific to the place where they live’ (Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18; IPCC, 2019b). Early warning systems and indicators of climate variability In most African Indigenous agrarian systems, local communities integrate IK to anticipate or respond to climate variability (Mafongoya et al., 2017). This holds potential for a more holistic response to climate change, as Indigenous Knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) 9 approaches seek solutions that increase resilience to a wide range of shocks and community stresses (IPCC, 2019b). In Africa, IKLK are exceptionally rich in ecosystem-specific knowledge, with the potential to enhance the management of natural hazards and climate variability (high confidence), but there is uncertainty about IKLK for adaptation under future climate conditions. Common indicators for the quality of the rain season for local communities in Africa include flower and fruit production of local trees (Nkomwa et al., 2014; Jiri et al., 2015; Kagunyu et al., 2016), insect, bird and animal behaviour and occurrence (Jiri et al., 2016; Mwaniki and Stevenson, 2017; Ebhuoma, 2020) and dry season temperatures (Kolawole et  al., 2016; Okonya et  al., 2017). Fulani herders in west Africa believe that when ‘nests hang high on trees, then rains will be heavy; when nests hang low, rains will be scarce’ (Roncoli et al., 2002). In South Africa, LK on weather forecasting is based on the hatching of insects, locust swarm movements and the arrival of migratory birds, which has enabled farmers to make adjustments to cropping practices (Muyambo et al., 2017; Tume et al., 2019). Most of these IK indicators apply to specific communities, and are used for short-term forecasting (e.g., event-specific predictions, such as a violent storm, and onset rain predictions) (Zuma-Netshiukhwi et al., 2013; Mutula et al., 2014). There is evidence of communities that rely heavily on IKLK indicators to forecast seasonal variability across the continent (Kagunyu et al., 2016; Mwaniki and Stevenson, 2017; Tume et al., 2019). However, their accuracy is debatable, due to age-old knowledge losing accuracy because of recent changes in weather conditions (Shaffer, 2014; Adjei and Kyerematen, 2018). There are also some limitations in the transferability of IK across geographical scales, as its understanding is framed by traditional beliefs and cultural practices, and historical and social conditions of each community, which vary significantly across communities. This has direct implications for the adoption of IKLK in national policy and planned adaptation by governments. However, in some parts of Africa, evidence of the integration of IKLK and scientific-based weather forecasting is increasing (Jiri et al., 2016; Mapfumo et al., 2017; Williams et al., 2020). Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge and climate adaptation Communities across Africa have long histories of using IKLK to cope with climate variability, reduce vulnerability and improve the capacity to cope with climate variability (Iloka Nnamdi, 2016; Mapfumo et al., 2017). The adaptation is mostly incremental, such as customary rainwater harvesting practices and planting ahead of rains (Ajibade and Eche, 2017; Makate, 2019), which are used to address the late-onset rains and rainfall variability. Although IKLK adaptation practices implemented by African communities are incremental, such practices record higher evidence of climate risk reduction compared to practices influenced by other knowledge types (Williams et al., 2020). African communities have used IKLK to cope, adapt to and manage climate hazards, mainly floods, wildfires, rainfall variability and droughts (see Box Table 9.2.1; IPCC, 2018b; IPCC, 2019b). Table Box 9.2.1 |  Selected studies where Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge have been used to cope with climate variability and climate change impacts in Africa. Climate Indigenous group, community, Adaptation/coping strategy Evidence hazard country Use IK to predict floods (village Coastal communities in Nigeria; Oshiwambo elders acted as meteorologists) and use LK to prepare communities in the northern region of coping mechanisms (social capital); place valuable goods Namibia; Matabeleland and Mashonaland Fabiyi and Oloukoi (2013); Hooli (2016); Floods on higher ground, raise the floor level, leave the fields provinces in Zimbabwe; communities in Lunga and Musarurwa (2016); Bwambale uncultivated when facing flood/drought, Indigenous Nyamwamba watershed, Uganda; subsistent et al. (2018); Tume et al. (2019) earthen walls used to protect homesteads from flooding, farmers in Mount Oku and Mbaw, Cameroon; planting of culturally flood-immunising Indigenous plants Akobo in South Sudan 1330 Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.2 (continued) Climate Indigenous group, community, Adaptation/coping strategy Evidence hazard country Early burning to prevent the intensity of the late-season Smallholders in Mutoko, Zimbabwe; Khwe and Wildfires Mugambiwa (2018); Humphrey et al. (2021) fires Mbukushu communities in Namibia Communities in Accra, Ghana; small-scale Change crop type (from maize to traditional millet and Codjoe et al. (2014); Nkomwa et al. (2014); farmers in Ngamiland in Botswana; Malawi; Rainfall sorghum); no weeding; forecasting, rainwater harvesting; Lunga and Musarurwa (2016); Rankoana Zimbabwe; women in Dikgale, South Africa, variability women perform rainmaking rituals, seed dressing and crop (2016b); Mugambiwa (2018); Mfitumukiza agro-pastoral smallholders in Ntungamo, maintenance as adaptation measures; mulching et al. (2020); Mogomotsi et al. (2020) Kamuli and Sembabule in Uganda Communities in Accra, Ghana; Malawi; Egeru (2012); Gebresenbet and Kefale Traditional drying of food for preservation (to consume South Africa, Uganda; smallholder farmers (2012); Codjoe et al. (2014); Kamwendo and Droughts during short-term droughts); harvesting wild fruits and in Mutoko, Zimbabwe; agro-pastoralists in Kamwendo (2014); Okoye and Oni (2017); vegetables; herd splitting by pastorals Makueni, Kenya; pastoralists in South Omo, Mugambiwa (2018) 9 Ethiopia Traditional rainwater harvesting to supplement both Drought-related irrigation and domestic water; Indigenous water bottle Smallholder farmers in Beaufort, South Africa Ncube (2018) water scarcity technology for irrigation IKLK and adaptation/coping strategies in Table Box 9.2.1 are supportive measures that communities cannot solely rely upon, but which can be used to complement other adaptation options to increase community resilience. African Indigenous language and climate change adaptation The diversity of African languages is crucial for climate adaptation. Africa has over 30% of the world’s Indigenous languages (Seti et al., 2016), which are exceptionally rich in ecosystem-specific knowledge on biodiversity, soil systems and water (Oyero, 2007; Mugambiwa, 2018). Taking into consideration the low level of literacy in Africa, especially among women and girls, Indigenous languages hold great potential for more effective climate change communication and services that enable climate adaptation (Brooks et al., 2005; Ologeh et al., 2018; IPCC, 2019b). African traditional beliefs and cultural practices place great value on the natural environment, especially land as the dwelling place of the ancestors and source of livelihoods (Tarusarira, 2017; see Section 9.12). Limitations of African Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge in climate adaptation Studies on IKLK and climate change adaptation conducted in various African countries and across ecosystems indicate that Indigenous environmental knowledge is negatively affected by several factors. Local farmers who depend on this knowledge system for their livelihoods hold the view that African governments do not support and promote it in policy development. Most government agricultural extension workers still consider IK to be unscientific and unreliable (Seaman et al., 2014; Mafongoya et al., 2017). At the national level, there is a lack of recognition and inclusion of IKLK in adaptation planning by African governments, partly because most of the IK and LK in African local communities remains undocumented, but also because IKLK are inadequately captured in the literature (Ford et al., 2016; IPCC, 2019b). This knowledge is predominantly preserved in the memories of the elderly and is handed down orally or by demonstration from generation to generation. It gradually disappears due to memory gaps, and when those holding the knowledge die or refuse to pass it to another generation, the knowledge becomes extinct (Rankoana, 2016a). The way in which IK is transmitted, accessed and shared in most African societies is not smooth (IIED, 2015). IK is also threatened by urbanisation, which attracts rural migrants to urban areas where IKLK use may be more limited (Fernández-Llamazares et  al., 2015). Further, most African societies that use IK were once colonised, whereby the African Indigenous ways of knowing were devalued and marginalised (Bolden et al., 2018). There are concerns about the effectiveness of both IK indicators and related adaptation responses by communities in predicting and adapting to weather events under future climate conditions (Speranza et al., 2009; Shaffer, 2014; Hooli, 2016). 1331 Chapter 9 Africa Box 9.2 (continued) Indigenous earth wall 9 Figure Box 9.2.1 |  Indigenous earth walls (hayit) built by Indigenous people in Akobo, Jonglei Region, South Sudan, to protect their houses and infrastructure from the worst flood in 25 years that occurred in 2019. The wall is 1–2 m high. Photo credit: Laurent-Charles Tremblay-Levesque. 9.6 Ecosystems in the Sahel, appear transitory and localised rather than widespread and permanent (Dardel et al., 2014; Pandit et al., 2018; Sterk and 9.6.1 Observed Impacts of Climate Change on African Stoorvogel, 2020). Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Shifts in demography, geographic ranges, and abundance of plants 9.6.1.1 Terrestrial Ecosystems and animals consistent with expected impacts of climate change are evident across Africa. These include uphill contractions of elevational The overall continental trend is woody plant expansion, particularly range limits of birds (Neate-Clegg et  al., 2021), changes in species in grasslands and savannas, with woody plant cover increasing at distributions previously reported in AR5 (Niang et al., 2014) and the a rate of 2.4% per decade (see Figure  9.17; Stevens et  al., 2017; death of many of the oldest and largest African baobabs (Patrut et al., Axelsson and Hanan, 2018). There is also increased grass cover in 2018). An increase in frequency and intensity of hot, dry weather arid regions in southwestern Africa (Masubelele et al., 2014). There after wildfires has led to a long-term decline in plant biodiversity in is high agreement that this is attributable to increased CO2, warmer Fynbos since the 1960s (Slingsby et al., 2017). Increasing temperatures and wetter climates, declines in burned area and release from may have contributed to the declining abundance and range size of herbivore browsing pressure, but the relative importance of these South African birds (Milne et  al., 2015), including Cape Rockjumper interacting drivers remains uncertain (O’Connor et al., 2014; Stevens (Chaetops frenatus) and protea canary (Serinus leucopterus), from et al., 2016; García Criado et al., 2020). Woody encroachment is the increased risk of reproductive failure (Lee and Barnard, 2016; Oswald dominant trend in the western and central Sahel, occurring over et al., 2020). For hot and dry regions (e.g., Kalahari), there is strong 24% of the region, driven primarily by shifts in rainfall timing and evidence that increased temperatures are having chronic sublethal recovery from drought (Anchang et al., 2019; Brandt et al., 2019). impacts, including reduced foraging efficiency and loss of body mass Remote sensing studies demonstrate greening in southern Africa (du Plessis et  al., 2012; Conradie et al., 2019), and are approaching and forest expansion into water-limited savannas in central and species physiological limits, with heat extremes driving mass mortality west Africa (Baccini et  al., 2017; Aleman et  al., 2018; Piao et  al., events in birds and bats (McKechnie et al., 2021). Vegetation change 2020), with increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO2 the linked to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 has had an probable determinants of change (Venter et al., 2018; Brandt et al., indirect impact on animals. Increased woody cover has decreased the 2019; Zhang et al., 2019). These trends of greening and woody plant occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require grassy expansion stand in contrast to the desertification and contraction habitats (Péron and Altwegg, 2015; McCleery et al., 2018). Decreased of vegetated areas highlighted in AR5 (Niang et al., 2014), but are fruit production linked to rising temperatures has decreased the body based on multiple studies and longer time series of observations. condition of fruit-dependent forest elephants by 11% from 2008–2018 Reported cases of desertification and vegetation loss, for example, (Bush et al., 2020). 1332 Africa Chapter 9 There is high agreement that land use activities counteract or exacerbate water quality and productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish (high climate-driven vegetation change (Aleman et al., 2017; Timm Hoffman confidence). In deeper lakes, warmer surface waters and decreasing et al., 2019). Decreased woody plant biomass in 11% of sub-Saharan wind speeds reduced shallow waters mixing with nutrient-rich deeper Africa was attributed to land clearing for agriculture (Brandt et al., 2017; waters, reducing biological productivity in the upper sunlit zone Ordway et al., 2017). Localised loss of tree cover in Miombo woodlands (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014; Saulnier-Talbot et  al., 2014). In several lakes, and 16.6±0.5 Mha of forest loss in the Congo Basin between 2000–2014 climate change was identified as causing changes in insect emergence was driven largely by forest clearing and drought mortality (McNicol time (Dallas and Rivers-Moore, 2014) and in loss of fish habitats et al., 2018; Tyukavina et al., 2018). (Natugonza et  al., 2015; Gownaris et  al., 2016). This set of changes can harm human livelihoods, for example, from reduced fisheries Vegetation changes interacting with climate and land use change productivity (see Section 9.8.5; Ndebele-Murisa, 2014; Ogutu-Ohwayo have impacted fire regimes across Africa. The frequency of weather et al., 2016) and reduced water supply and quality (Section 9.7.1). conducive for fire has increased in southern and west Africa and is expected to continue increasing in the 21st century under both RCP2.6 9.6.1.4 Marine Ecosystems and RCP8.5 (Betts et  al., 2015; Abatzoglou et  al., 2019). Increased grass cover in arid regions introduced fire into regions where fuel Anthropogenic climate change is already negatively impacting Africa’s 9 was previously insufficient to allow fire spread, such as the arid Karoo marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and services by changing in South Africa (du Toit et  al., 2015; Strydom and Savage, 2016). In physical and chemical properties of seawater (increased temperature, contrast, shrub encroachment, increased precipitation (Zubkova et al., salinity and acidification, and changes in oxygen concentration, ocean 2019), vegetation fragmentation and cropland expansion have reduced currents and vertical stratification) (high confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg fire activity in many African grasslands and savannas (Andela and van et al., 2014; 2018). Coastal ecosystems in west Africa are among the der Werf, 2014; Probert et  al., 2019). These drivers are expected to most vulnerable because of extensive low-lying deltas exposed to sea negate the effect of increasing fire weather and ultimately lead to a level rise, erosion, saltwater intrusion and flooding (Belhabib et  al., reduction in the total burned area under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Knorr 2016; UNEP, 2016b; Kifani et  al., 2018).  In southern Africa, shifting et al., 2016; Moncrieff et al., 2016; Wu et al., 2016). distributions of anchovy, sardine, hake, rock lobster and seabirds have been partly attributed to climate change (Crawford et al., 2015; van 9.6.1.2 Vegetation Resilience der Lingen and Hampton, 2018; Vizy et al., 2018), including southern shifts of 30 estuarine and marine fish species attributed to increased African ecosystems have a long evolutionary association with fire, temperature and changes in water circulation from decreased river large mammal herbivory and drought (Maurin et  al., 2014; Charles- inflow (Augustyn et  al., 2018). Warming sea surface temperatures Dominique et  al., 2016). The maintenance of biodiversity depends inhibiting nutrient mixing have reduced phytoplankton biomass in the on natural disturbance regimes. Natural regrowth of savanna plant western Indian Ocean by 20% since the 1960s, potentially reducing biomass in southern Africa compensated for biomass removal through tuna catches (Roxy et al., 2016). human activities (McNicol et al., 2018), and rapid recovery occurred after the 2014–2016 extreme drought (Abbas et  al., 2019). During Mangroves, seagrasses and coral reefs support nursery habitats for the same drought event, browsing and mixed feeder herbivores fish, sequester carbon, trap sediment and provide shoreline protection were resilient, but grazers declined by approximately 60% and were (Ghermandi et  al., 2019). Climate change is compromising these highly dependent on drought refugia (Abraham et al., 2019). African ecosystem services (medium confidence). Marine heatwaves associated tropical forests remained a carbon sink through the record drought with ENSO events have triggered mass coral bleaching and mortality and temperature experienced in the 2015–2016 El Niño, indicating over the past 20 years (Oliver et al., 2018). Mass coral bleaching in the resilience in the face of extreme environmental conditions (Bennett western Indian Ocean occurred in 1998, 2005, 2010 and 2015/2016 et  al., 2021). This is likely due to the presence of drought-tolerant with coral cover just 30–40% of 1998 levels by 2016 (Obura et  al., species and floristic and functional shifts in tree species assemblages 2017; Moustahfid et  al., 2018). The northern Mozambique Channel (Fauset et  al., 2012; Aguirre-Gutiérrez et  al., 2019). This resilience has served as a refuge from climate change and biological reservoir indicates that there is the capacity to recover from disturbances for the entire coastal east African region (McClanahan et  al., 2014; and short-term change. However, resilience has limits and beyond Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018). A southern shift of mangrove species certain points, change can lead to irreversible shifts to different states has been observed in south Africa (Peer et al., 2018) with loss in total (Figure 9.18). suitable coastal habitats for mangroves and shifts in the distribution of some species of mangroves and a gain for others (Record et al., 2013). 9.6.1.3 Freshwater Ecosystems Mangrove cover was reduced 48% in Mozambique in 2000 from Tropical Cyclone Eline, with 100% mortality of seaward mangroves Small climatic variations have large impacts on ecosystem function dominated by Rhizophora mucronata (Macamo et al., 2016). Recovery in Africa’s freshwaters (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014; Ogutu-Ohwayo et  al., of mangrove species was observed 14  years later in sheltered sites. 2016). Warming of water temperatures from 0.2°C to 3.2°C occurred in There is low confidence these cyclone-induced impacts are attributable several lakes over 1927–2014 and has been attributed to human-caused to climate change owing, in part, to a lack of reliable long-term data climate change (Figure  9.17; Ogutu-Ohwayo et  al., 2016). Increased sets (Macamo et  al., 2016). In west Africa, oil and gas extraction, temperature, changes in rainfall and reduced wind speed altered the deforestation, canalisation and de-silting of waterways have been the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, affecting largest factors in mangrove destruction (Numbere, 2019). 1333 Chapter 9 Africa Observed changes in vegetation and freshwater ecosystems (a) Terrestrial vegetation (b) Freshwater ecosystems Surface water Functional type switch temperature change (°C/decade) Forest cover gain 0.4–0.5 0.3–0.4 9 Forest/woodland/shrub decline 0.2–0.3 0.1–0.2 Grass cover gain 0–0.1 Grass cover loss -0.1–0 -0.2– -0.1 Shrub/woodland cover gain Lake temperature change (°C/decade) Climate driver 0.6–0.76 0.4–0.6 Correlated with 0.2–0.4 climate change driver 0.05–0.2 Proposed climate change driver Observation type Not reported Satellite Not climate change related in−situ Figure 9.17 |  Widespread changes to African vegetation have been reported, especially increasing woody plant cover in many savannas and grasslands, with 37% of these changes proposed to be driven by human-caused climate change and increased CO2 (a). The warming of lakes and rivers has been detected across Africa and is attributed to climate change. Data on vegetation change was gathered from 156 studies published between 1989 and 2021(b). Climatic changes, mostly associated with changes in rainfall, are enhancing grass production in arid grasslands and savannas, and causing grass expansion into semi-desert regions with notable increases in the Sahel and southern Africa. Tropical forest expansion into mesic savannas is occurring on the fringes of the central African tropical forest. Interactions between land use, climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are causing a widespread increase in woody plant cover encroachment in tropical savannas and grasslands. Some tree death and woody cover decline associated with climate and land use change have also been recorded across biomes. Of the reported changes to terrestrial vegetation, 24% were explicitly linked to climate change and a further 13% were proposed to be driven by climate change. In 48% of studies, no climate driver was mentioned and in 15% climate change was ruled out as the driver of change. Annual surface water temperatures in African lakes have warmed at a rate of 0.05°C–0.76°C per decade. Both satellite-based measures spanning 1985–2011 and in situ measurements spanning 1927–2014 agree on this warming trend. Other surface waters across Africa warmed from 1979–2018 at a rate of between 0.05°C and 0.5°C per decade (Woolway and Maberly, 2020). Vegetation change data were taken from a larger, global literature survey of existing databases supplemented with newer studies documenting changes in tree, shrub and grass cover linked to climate and land use change in natural and semi-natural areas (for further details see Section 2.4.3.5; Table SM2.1; Table SM9.2 for Africa vegetation change data and Table SM9.3 for studies reporting lake warming data). 9.6.2 Projected Risks of Climate Change for African reversing climate- and CO2-driven greening in savannas (Aleman Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services et al., 2018; Quesada et al., 2018). 9.6.2.1 Projected Biome Distribution Vegetation growth simulated by dynamic vegetation models is often highly sensitive to CO2 fertilisation. These models project the African The geography of African biomes is projected to shift due to changes in tropical forest carbon sink to be stable or strengthened under scenarios atmospheric CO2 concentrations and aridity (Figure 9.18). Grassland of future climate change (Huntingford et al., 2013; Martens et al., 2021). expansion into the desert, woody expansion into grasslands and In contrast, statistical modelling suggests it has begun to decline and forest expansion into savannas are projected for areas of reduced will weaken further, decreasing from current estimates of 0.66 tonnes aridity, caused by reduced moisture stress from CO2 fertilisation of carbon removed from the atmosphere per hectare per year to 0.55 under medium (RCP4.5) and high (SRES A2) emissions scenarios tonnes of carbon (Hubau et al., 2020). Increasing rainfall seasonality (Heubes et  al., 2011; Moncrieff et  al., 2016). This greening trend and aridity over central Africa (Haensler et  al., 2013) threatens the may slow or reverse with continued temperature increase and/or in massive carbon store in the Congo Basin’s Cuvette Centrale peatlands, areas of increased aridity (Berdugo et al., 2020). The net impact of estimated at 30.6 billion tonnes (Dargie et al., 2019). these effects on vegetation is highly uncertain (Trugman et al., 2018; Cook et  al., 2020a; Martens et  al., 2021). The maintenance or re- 9.6.2.2 Terrestrial Biodiversity establishment of natural fire and large mammal herbivory processes can mitigate projected CO2 and climate-driven changes (Scheiter and Local extinction is when a species is extirpated from a local site. Savadogo, 2016; Stevens et al., 2016). Expansion of croplands and The magnitude and extent of local extinctions predicted across pastures will reduce ecosystem carbon storage in Africa, potentially Africa increase substantially under all future GWLs (high confidence) 1334 Africa Chapter 9 Increases in atmospheric CO2 and changes in aridity are projected to shift the geographic distribution of major biomes across Africa A schematic representing biome distribution across an aridity gradient in Africa. Aridity is an important determinant of these biomes, however the distribution of grasslands, savannas and forests are also strongly shaped by interactions between disturbance and climate and as such changes in disturbances are also important determinants of biomes boundaries. Multiple stable biome states are often possible at the transition between savanna and forest. Shifts in rainfall seasonality are not Desert Shrubland Grassland Savanna Forest depicted here, though through altering disturbance regimes and drought intensity, this is also expected to be an important factor. 9 Forests expand into savannas; CO2 savannas experience densification and tending to become closed canopy systems. As CO2 increases the water use efficiency of trees and grasses increases causing woody proliferation in arid savannas. This may also induce expansion of grasses into arid shrublands. Increasing Aridity Decreasing Aridity In areas with increased aridity in addition to rising CO2 an increase in forest die-off Further expansion of forest into savanna and a significant loss of savanna is likely and a slowing in the rate of woody plant encroachment may occur. Arid grassland to closed canopied forests and thickets. Expansion of savannas into shrublands may experience increases in plant die off. cooler grasslands. Higher CO2 and decreased aridity will promote grass expansion into arid shrublands. Figure 9.18 |  Increases in atmospheric CO2 and changes in aridity are projected to shift the geographic distribution of major biomes across Africa (high confidence). Arrows in the diagram indicate possible pathways of biome change from current conditions resulting from changes in CO2 and aridity. Changes need not be gradual or linear and may occur rapidly if tipping points are crossed. Currently, widespread greening observed in Africa has been at least partially attributed to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Future projected increases in aridity are expected to cause desertification in many regions, but it is highly uncertain how this will interact with the greening effect of CO2. Inset maps show the projected geographical extent of changes in CO2 concentrations and aridity. CO2 is projected to increase globally under all future emission scenarios. Aridity index maps show projected change in aridity (calculated as annual precipitation/annual potential evapotranspiration) at around 4°C global warming relative to 1850–1900 (RCP8.5 in 2070–2099) from 34 CMIP5 models (Scheff et al., 2017). Shaded areas indicate regions where >75% of models agree on the direction of change. (Table 9.5; Figure 9.19). Above 2°C, the risk of sudden disruption or Global extinction is when a species is extirpated from all areas. At 2°C loss of local biodiversity increases and becomes more widespread, global warming, 11.6% of African species (mean 11.6%, 95% CI 6.8– especially in central, west and east Africa (Trisos et al., 2020). 18.2%) assessed are at risk of global extinction, placing Africa second only to South America in the magnitude of projected biodiversity losses (Urban, 2015). At >2°C, 20% of north African mammals may lose all 1335 Chapter 9 Africa Table 9.5 |  Risk of local extinction increases across Africa with increasing global warming. Global warming level Percentage of species Extent across Africa (relative to 1850– Taxa at a site at risk of local (percentage of the Areas at risk References 1900) extinction land area of Africa) Widespread. Hot and/or arid regions Plants, insects, Figure 9.29b; Newbold (2018); 1.5°C >10% >90% especially at risk, including Sahara, vertebrates Warren et al. (2018) Sahel and Kalahari Plants, insects, Newbold (2018); Warren et al. >2°C >50% 18% Widespread vertebrates (2018) Widespread. Higher uncertainty Plants, insects, for central African tropical forests Fig. 9.29c; Newbold (2018); >4°C >50% 45–73% vertebrates due to lower agreement between Warren et al. (2018) biodiversity models 9 suitable climates (Soultan et  al., 2019), and over half of the dwarf warming (very high confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018). At succulents in South African Karoo may lose >90% of their suitable around 2.5°C global warming, an important reef-building coral habitat (Young et al., 2016). Among the thousands of species at risk, (Diploastrea heliopora) in the central Red Sea is projected to stop many are species of ecological, cultural and economic importance such growing altogether (Cantin et al., 2010). By 2.5°C, suitable habitat as African wild dogs (Woodroffe et al., 2017) and Arabica coffee (Moat of >50% of species are projected to decline for coastal lobster et al., 2019). in east and north Africa, with large declines for the commercially important lobster species Jasus lalandii in southern Africa (Boavida- With increasing warming, there is a lower likelihood species can Portugal et  al., 2018). More generally, tropical regions, especially migrate rapidly enough to track shifting climates, increasing global exclusive economic zones in west Africa, are projected to lose large extinction risk and biodiversity loss across more of Africa (high numbers of marine species and may experience sudden declines with confidence). Immigration of species from elsewhere may partly extratropical regions having potential net increases as species track compensate for local extinctions and lead to local biodiversity gains shifting temperatures poleward (García Molinos et al., 2016; Trisos in some regions (Newbold, 2018; Warren et al., 2018). However, more et al., 2020). regions face net losses than net gains. At 1.5°C global warming, >46% of localities face net declines in vertebrate species richness 9.6.2.4 Freshwater Ecosystems of >10%, with net increases projected for less than 15% of localities (Barbet-Massin and Jetz, 2015; Newbold, 2018). At >2°C, 9% of Above 2°C global warming, the proportion of freshwater fish species species face complete range loss by 2100, regardless of their dispersal vulnerable to climate change increases substantially (high confidence) ability (Urban, 2015). With >4°C global warming, a net loss of >10% (Figure 9.19). At 2°C, 36.4% of fish species are projected to be vulnerable of vertebrate species richness is projected across 85% of Africa to local or global extinction by 2100, increasing to 56.4% under 4°C (Barbet-Massin and Jetz, 2015; Mokhatla et al., 2015; Newbold, 2018; warming (average of values from (Nyboer et  al., 2019; Barbarossa Warren et al., 2018). Mountain top endemics and species in north and et al., 2021) (Figure 9.19). Global warming reduces available habitat for southern Africa are at risk due to disappearing cold climates (Milne freshwater species due to reduced precipitation and increased drought et al., 2015; Garcia et al., 2016; Bentley et al., 2018; Soultan et al., leading to increasing water temperatures above optimal physiological 2019). For hot regions such as the Sahara, Congo Basin and Kalahari, limits in floodplains, estuaries, wetlands, ephemeral pools, rivers and no warmer-adapted species are available elsewhere to compensate lakes (Dalu et al., 2017; Kalacska et al., 2017; Nyboer and Chapman, for local extinctions, so the resilience of local biodiversity will depend 2018). Along the Zambezi River, projected flow reductions could cause entirely on the persistence of species (Burrows et  al., 2014; Garcia a 22% reduction in annual spawning habitat and depletion of food et  al., 2014). The capacity for species to avoid extinction through resources for fry and juvenile fish that could impede fish migration behavioural thermoregulation, plasticity or evolution is uncertain but and reduce stocks (Kangalawe, 2017; Martínez-Capel et  al., 2017; will become increasingly unlikely under higher warming scenarios Tamatamah and Mwedzi, 2020). More aquatic species will have the (Conradie et al., 2019). capacity to cope with 2°C compared to 4°C global warming, with more negative effects on physiological performance at 4°C (Dallas, 2016; 9.6.2.3 Marine Ecosystems Pinceel et  al., 2016; Zougmoré et  al., 2016; Nyboer and Chapman, 2017; Ross-Gillespie et  al., 2018). Endemic, specialised fish species African coastal and marine ecosystems are highly vulnerable to will have a lower capacity to adjust to elevated water temperatures climate change (high confidence). At 1.5°C of global warming, compared to hardier generalist fishes (McDonnell and Chapman, 2015; mangroves will be exposed to sedimentation and sea level rise, while Nyboer and Chapman, 2017; Lapointe et al., 2018; Reizenberg et al., seagrass ecosystems will be most affected by heat extremes (high 2019). More work is needed to understand the risk for invertebrates confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) and turbidity (Wong et al., (Dallas and Rivers-Moore, 2014; Cohen et al., 2016), and to understand 2014). These risks will be amplified at 2°C and 3°C (virtually certain) the potential effects of reduced mixing of water and other climate risks (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018). Over 90% of east African coral on freshwater biodiversity. reefs are projected to be destroyed by bleaching at 2°C of global 1336 Africa Chapter 9 The loss of African biodiversity (a) 200% under future climate change 100% is projected to be widespread and increasing Biodiversity 0 substantially with every 0.5°C above the change -20% current (2001–2020) level of global warming -40% -60% -80% -100% >1.0 >2.0 >1.5 >3.0 Global warming (°C) 9 (b) >1.5°C (c) >4.0°C Species 100% locally 75% extinct 50% 25% 0 25% 50% 75% 100% Model agreement 100% Vulnerable (d) 1.5–2°C (e) 2.6–3.2°C freshwater 75% fish species 50% 25% 0 25% 50% 75% 100% Model agreement Figure 9.19 |  The loss of African biodiversity under future climate change is projected to be widespread and increasing substantially with every 0.5° above the current (2001–2020) level of global warming (high confidence). (a) Projected biodiversity loss, quantified as percentage change in species abundance, range size or area of suitable habitat increases with increasing global warming levels (relative to 1850–1900). Above 1.5°C global warming, half of all assessed species are projected to lose >30% of their population, range size or area of suitable habitat, with losses increasing to >40% for >2°C. The 2001–2020 level of global warming is around 1°C higher than 1850 –1900 (IPCC, 2021). Boxplots show the median (horizontal line), 50% quantiles (box), and points are studies of individual species or of multiple species (symbol size indicates the number of species in a study). (b–c) The mean projected local extinction of vertebrates, plants and insects within 100 km grid cells increases in severity and extent under increased global warming (relative to 1850–1900). Local extinction >10% is widespread by 1.5°C. Pixel colour shows the projected percentage of species undergoing local extinction and the agreement between multiple biodiversity models. 1337 Chapter 9 Africa (d–e) The mean projected increase in species of freshwater fish vulnerable to local extinction within 10 km grid cells for future global warming. Around a third of fish species are projected to be vulnerable to extinction by 2°C global warming. Pixel colour shows the projected percentage of species vulnerable to extinction and agreement between multiple vulnerability models. In (a), data were obtained from 22 peer-reviewed papers published since 2012 investigating the impacts of projected climate change on African biodiversity. When a paper provided impact projections for several time periods, climate change scenarios or for more than one species, each impact was recorded as an individual biodiversity impact projection, resulting in a database of 1165 biodiversity impact projections. Data were initially collected by Manes et al. (2021) as part of a larger literature review for Cross-Chapter Paper 1 on Biodiversity Hotspots and then expanded to include areas outside of African priority conservation areas (see Table SM 9.4). The literature review was limited to peer-reviewed publications that reported quantifiable risks to biodiversity, eliminating non-empirical studies. In (b–c), projections are based on intersecting current and future modelled species distributions at ~10 km spatial resolution from two recent global assessments of climate change impacts on terrestrial vertebrates (Newbold, 2018; Warren et al., 2018). In (d-e) projections are based on intersecting future species vulnerabilities from two recent assessments of climate change vulnerability of freshwater fish species (Nyboer et al., 2019; Barbarossa et al., 2021). 9.6.2.5 Climate Change and Ecosystem Services et al., 2017). Climate change is projected to change patterns of invasive species spread (high confidence). The area of suitable climate for Lantana Direct human dependence on provisioning ecosystem services in camara is projected to contract (Taylor et  al., 2012) and to expand for Africa is high (Egoh et  al., 2012; IPBES, 2018). For example, natural Prosopis juliflora (Sintayehu et  al., 2020). Bioclimatic suitability for fall 9 forests provided 21% of rural household income across 11 African armyworm, a major threat to maize, is projected to decrease in central countries (Angelsen et al., 2014) and wild-harvested foods (including Africa but expand in southern and west Africa (Zacarias, 2020), and to fisheries) provide important nutrition to millions of Africans, including expand for coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) in Uganda and through important micronutrients and increased dietary diversity around Mount Kenya (Jaramillo et  al., 2011). Climate suitability for (Sections 9.8.2.3; 9.8.5; Powell et al., 2013; Baudron et al., 2019a). tephritid fruit flies is projected to decrease in central Africa (Hill et  al., 2016). Increased water temperature is projected to favour invasive over Climate change has affected ecosystem services in Africa by reducing local freshwater fish populations and shift the range of invasive aquatic fish stocks, crop and livestock productivity, and water provisioning due plants in South Africa (Hoveka et al., 2016; Shelton et al., 2018). Alterations to heat and drought (see Sections  9.8.2.1; 9.8.2.2; 9.8.2.4; 9.8.5.1). to lake and river connectivity are predicted to modify invasion pathways in Woody encroachment is decreasing cattle production and water Lake Tanganyika and water hyacinth coverage may increase with warmer supply (Smit and Prins, 2015; Stafford et  al., 2017), but can also waters in Lake Victoria (Masters and Norgrove, 2010; Plisnier et al., 2018). provide forage for goat production, as well as resins, fuelwood and charcoal (Reed et al., 2015; Stafford et al., 2017; Charis et al., 2019). Local communities perceive climate change to have decreased crop 9.6.3 Nature-based Tourism in Africa and livestock productivity, reduced wild food availability and reduced forest resources across Africa (see Sections  9.8.2.1; 9.8.2.2; 9.8.2.4; Nature-based tourism is important for African economies and jobs. 9.8.2.3; Onyekuru and Marchant, 2014). Tourism contributed 8.5% of Africa’s 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2019a) with wildlife tourism With global warming >3°C, and with high population growth and contributing a third of tourism revenue (USD 70.6 billion), supporting agricultural expansion (SSP3, 2081–2100), 1.2  billion Africans are 8.8 million jobs (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2019b). projected to be negatively affected by pollution of drinking water from reduced water quality regulation by ecosystems and 27 million people Climate change is already negatively affecting tourism in Africa (high affected by reduced coastal protection by ecosystems (Chaplin-Kramer confidence). The 2015–2018 Cape Town drought caused severe water et al., 2019). The number of people affected reduces to 0.4 billion and restrictions, reducing tourist arrivals and spending with associated job 22  million, respectively, under a sustainable development scenario losses (Dube et al., 2020). Human-caused climate change increased the with global warming below 2°C (SSP1, 2081–2100). The African likelihood of the reduced rainfall that caused the drought by a factor tropical forest carbon sink has been more resilient than Amazonia of three (Otto et al., 2018)(Pascale et al., 2020). Extreme heat days to recent warming but may already have peaked, and this service have increased across South African national parks since the 1990s is predicted to decline with further warming, reducing 14% by the (van Wilgen et  al., 2016). This reduces animal mobility, decreasing 2030s (Hubau et al., 2020; Sullivan et al., 2020). This declining carbon animal viewing opportunities (Dube and Nhamo, 2020). Tourists and storage may be offset by CO2 fertilization (low confidence) (Martens employees also fear heat stress (Dube and Nhamo, 2020). Visitors et  al., 2021). Climate change is projected to shift the geographic to South Africa’s national parks preferred to visit in cool-to-mild distribution of important human and livestock disease vectors (see temperatures (Coldrey and Turpie, 2020). Extreme weather conditions Sections 9.8.2.4; 9.10.2). Changes in rainfall seasonality compounded disrupted tourist activities and damaged infrastructure at Victoria with land privatisation and population growth may adversely impact Falls, Hwange National Park, Kruger National Park and the Okavango nomadic and semi-nomadic pastoralists who follow shifting patterns Delta (Dube et  al., 2018; Dube and Nhamo, 2018; Mushawemhuka of greening vegetation (Van Der Ree et al., 2015). et al., 2018; Dube and Nhamo, 2020). Rainfall variability and drought alter wildlife migrations, affecting tourist visits to the Serengeti 9.6.2.6 Invasive Species (Kilungu et al., 2017). Reduced tourism decreases revenue for national park management (van Wilgen et al., 2016). Invasive species threaten African ecosystems and livelihoods (Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). For instance, economic impacts were estimated at Future climate change is projected to further negatively affect nature- USD 1 billion per year for smallholder maize farmers in east Africa (Pratt based tourism. Decreased snow and forest cover may reduce visits to 1338 Africa Chapter 9 Sectors planning strategies linked to ecosystem-based adaptation Sub-sectors (number of EbA actions) 713 Adaptation actions were identified in (28) Ecosystem and biodiversity 52 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from African countries as of early 2020 (22) Land and soil management (20) Sustainable forest management (18) Coastal zone Sectors (17) Crops 258 (15) Water mmanagement or 36% of these More than 80% Agriculture are Ecosystem-based are in these (14) Sustainable land management adaptation (EbA) four sectors actions Forestry and (12) Climate smart agriculture other land use (12) Watershed and river basin management (10) Energy Environment (9) Reforestation Water (8) Agroforestry (7) Afforestation Coastal zone (7) Water supply Energy (7) Fisheries and aquaculture Disaster Risk Management (DRM) (6) Irrigation 9 Urban (5) Agroecology Cross-cutting area (5) Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Education Social development (5) Land degradation Tourism (5) Urban (5) Water conservation and reuse (5) Food security (5) Livestock (3) Cross-cutting area (3) Water infrastructure (2) Education (1) Social development (1) Tourism (1) Wetlands Figure 9.20 |  Over a third (36%) of all adaptation actions identified in the NDCs of 52 African countries as of early 2020 were ecosystem-based adaptations (EbA). Of these actions ±83% fall within the agriculture, land use/forestry, environment and water sectors. The EbA actions identified from the NDCs span 12 primary sectors and 29 sub-sectors. Kilimanjaro National Park (Kilungu et al., 2019). Woody plant expansion and Bro-Jørgensen, 2016; Smith et  al., 2016; Phipps et  al., 2017). in savanna and grasslands reduce tourist’s game viewing experience and Species ability to disperse between areas to track shifting climates is negatively impact conservation revenues (Gray Emma and Bond William, increasingly impaired by land transformation and fencing, which also 2013; Arbieu et  al., 2017). Visitation rates to South African national impact seasonal wildlife migrations (Lovschal et al., 2017; Sloan et al., parks, based on mean monthly temperatures, are projected to decline 2017). On land, only 0.5% of the African protected area network is 4% with 2°C global warming (Coldrey and Turpie, 2020). Sea level rise connected through low-impact landscapes (Ward et al., 2020). Linear and increased intensity of storms is projected to reduce beach tourism transport infrastructure (e.g., roads, railways, pipelines) and fencing due to beach erosion (Grant, 2015; Amusan and Olutola, 2017). Tourism from proposed ‘development corridors’ are projected to bisect over 400 in the Victoria Falls, Okavango and Chobe hydrological systems may be protected areas and degrade around 1800 more (Laurance et al., 2015). negatively affected by heat and increased variability of rainfall and river Climate change could increase human–wildlife conflict as resultant flow (Saarinen et al., 2012; Dube and Nhamo, 2019). Increased extreme resource shortages cause communities to move into protected areas heat will increase air turbulence and weight restrictions on aircraft, for harvesting or livestock grazing, or wildlife to move out of protected which could make air travel more uncomfortable and expensive to areas and into contact with people (Mukeka et al., 2018; Kupika et al., African destinations (Coffel and Horton, 2015; Dube and Nhamo, 2019). 2019; Hambira et al., 2020). See Section 9.6.4 for the role of land and ocean protected areas in climate change adaptation. 9.6.3.1 Protected Areas and Climate Change African protected areas store around 1.5% of global land ecosystem 9.6.4 Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Africa carbon stocks and support biodiversity (Gray et al., 2016; Melillo et al., 2016; Sala et al., 2018). They also support livelihoods and economies, Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem such as through nature-based tourism and improved fisheries services to assist people to adapt to climate change (Swanepoel and (Brockington and Wilkie, 2015; Mavah et al., 2018; Ban et al., 2019). Sauka, 2019). Africa’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) show 36% of adaptation actions identified by 52  countries are Climate change and land use change will interact to influence the considered to be EbA (Figure 9.20). effectiveness of African protected areas (high confidence). Species representation in the existing African protected area network is EbA can reduce climate impacts and there is high agreement EbA projected to decrease due to species range shifts for mammals, bats, can be more cost-effective than traditional grey infrastructure birds and amphibians (Hole et  al., 2009; Baker et  al., 2015; Payne when a range of economic, social and environmental benefits are 1339 Chapter 9 Africa Table 9.6 |  The beneficial outcomes of ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) actions and assessed confidence in these outcomes. Assessment is provided for EbA options in the four most prevalent EbA sectors identified in the Nationally Determined Contributions of 52 African countries (Figure 9.20). See Chapter 2.6.3 and 3.6.2 of this report for further assessment of EbA approaches in terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems. Sector EbA Action(s) Outcome(s) Confidence Source(s) Improved soil and water conservation High Thierfelder et al. (2017) Conservation agriculture Improved agricultural productivity and drought Pittelkow et al. (2015); Thierfelder et al. (2017); Adenle Medium Agriculture resilience et al. (2019) Improved agricultural productivity and drought Shiferaw et al. (2014); Tesfaye et al. (2016); Thierfelder Diversified crop varieties High resilience et al. (2017) Carbon sequestration and storage High Melillo et al. (2016); Griscom et al. (2017); FAO (2018a) Stepping stones for species migrating due to climate Medium Beale et al. (2013); Roberts et al. (2020) change Ecosystem protection and Environment Anthony et al. (2015); Sierra-Correa and Cantera Kintz restoration Increased ecosystem resilience to disturbance High (2015); Kroon et al. (2016); Roberts et al. (2017) 9 Livelihood diversification opportunities from Lunga and Musarurwa (2016); Bedelian and Ogutu (2017); ecotourism, resource harvesting and rangelands Medium Agyeman (2019); Kupika et al. (2019); Naidoo et al. (2019) (among others) Restoration of degraded ecosystems and enhanced Restoration/ reforestation High Mugwedi et al. (2018) Forestry and carbon sequestration Sustainable forestry and land other land use management Reducing pressure on forests for food and energy Medium Peprah (2017); Zegeye (2018) needs Bradshaw et al. (2007); Mwenge Kahinda et al. (2016); Improved flood attenuation capacity High Integrated catchment Rawlins et al. (2018) Water management Ndebele-Murisa (2014); Natugonza et al. (2015); (2019); Improved resilience of freshwater ecosystems High Tamatamah and Mwedzi (2020) also accounted for (Table  9.6; Baig et  al., 2016; Emerton, 2017; through involving community members in decision making, increasing Chausson et  al., 2020). This is particularly relevant in Africa where the capacity of these communities to respond to climate change (Reid, climate vulnerabilities are strongly linked to natural resource-based 2014). livelihood practices and existing grey infrastructure levels are low in many regions (Dube et al., 2016; Reid et al., 2019). However, financial EbA can also increase ecological resilience. Re-introduction of fire and constraints limit EbA project implementation (Mumba et  al., 2016; large mammals can restore ecosystem services, enhance adaptive Swanepoel and Sauka, 2019). capacity and benefit people by combatting woody encroachment, restoring grazing and increasing streamflow (Asner et al., 2016; Stafford Evidence for EbA in Africa is largely case study based and often anecdotal et al., 2017; Cromsigt et al., 2018). Herbivores can also reduce fuel loads (Reid et  al., 2018). There is high agreement that costs, challenges and in areas facing increased fire risk (Hempson et al., 2017). negative outcomes of EbA interventions are still poorly understood (Reid, 2016; Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2019), despite limited evidence for the efficacy Protected areas can be ‘stepping stones’ that facilitate climate-induced of context-specific applications at different scales (Doswald et al., 2014). species range shifts (Roberts et  al., 2020), preserve medicinal plant diversity despite climate change (Kaky and Gilbert, 2017) and provide 9.6.4.1 Terrestrial Ecosystems livelihood diversification opportunities (Table 9.6). Protecting 30% of sub-Saharan Africa’s land area could reduce the proportion of species Improved ecosystem care and restoration are cost-effective for at risk of extinction by around 60% in both low and high warming carbon sequestration while providing multiple environmental, social scenarios (Hannah et al., 2020). The role of protected areas in EbA can be and economic co-benefits (Griscom et al., 2017; Shukla et al., 2019). strengthened by: (a) increasing coverage of diverse environments and Protecting and restoring natural forests and wetlands reduces flood high carbon storage ecosystems, (b) restoring habitat, (c) maintaining risk across multiple African countries (Bradshaw et al., 2007). In Kenya, intact habitat, (d) participatory, equitable conservation and adaptation enclosures for rangeland regeneration diversified income sources, strategies; (e) cooperating across borders and (f) adequate monitoring which could increase the adaptive capacity of local people (Mureithi (Gillson et al., 2013; Rannow et al., 2014; Midgley and Bond, 2015; Pecl et  al., 2016; Wairore et  al., 2016). Sustainable agroforestry in semi- et al., 2017; Dinerstein et al., 2019; Roberts et al., 2020). arid regions provides income sources from fuelwood, fruit and timber and reduces exposure to drought, floods and erosion (Quandt et al., 9.6.4.2 Freshwater Ecosystems 2017). Forest protection in Zimbabwe maintains honey production during droughts, providing food supply options if crops fail (Lunga and EbA can mitigate flooding and increase the resilience of freshwater Musarurwa, 2016). Community-based natural resource management ecosystems (Table 9.6). Adaptation in African freshwater ecosystems is in pastoral communities improved institutional governance outcomes heavily influenced by non-climate anthropogenic factors, including land 1340 Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.3 | Tree planting in Africa Due to widespread deforestation and forest degradation (Malhi et al., 2014), future scenarios to limit global warming include large-scale reforestation and afforestation (Griscom et al., 2017; Bastin et al., 2019). Africa has been targeted through the AFR100 (https://afr100. org) to plant ~1 million km2 of trees by 2030 (Bond et al 2019). Maintaining existing indigenous forest and indigenous forest restoration is a win–win, maximising benefits to biodiversity, adaptation and mitigation (Griscom et al., 2017; Watson et al., 2018; Lewis et al., 2019) (high confidence). Yet many areas targeted by AFR100 erroneously mark Africa’s open ecosystems (grasslands, savannas, shrublands) as degraded and suitable for afforestation (Figure Box 9.3.1; (Veldman et al., 2015; Bond et al., 2019) (high confidence). These ecosystems are not degraded, they are ancient ecosystems that evolved in the presence of disturbances (fire/herbivory) (Maurin et al., 2014; Bond and Zaloumis, 2016; Charles-Dominique et al., 2016). Afforestation prioritises carbon sequestration at the cost of biodiversity and other ecosystem services (Veldman et al., 2015; Bond et al., 2019). Furthermore, it remains uncertain how much carbon can be sequestered as, compared to grassy ecosystems, afforestation can reduce belowground carbon stores and increase aboveground carbon loss to fire and drought (Yang et al., 9 2019; Wigley et al., 2020b; Nuñez et al., 2021). Thus, afforested areas may store less carbon than ecosystems they replace (Dass et al., 2018; Heilmayr et al., 2020). Afforestation would reduce livestock forage, ecotourism potential and water availability (Gray Emma and Bond William, 2013; Anadón et al., 2014; Cao et al., 2016; Stafford et al., 2017; Du et al., 2021), and may reduce albedo thereby increasing warming (Bright et al., 2015; Baldocchi and Penuelas, 2019). Exotic tree species are often selected for planting (e.g., Pinus spp. or Eucalyptus spp.), but in parts of Africa, they have become invasive (Zengeya, 2017; Witt et al., 2018), increasing fire hazards and decreasing biodiversity and water resources (Nuñez et al., 2021) (high confidence). Negative impacts of afforestation on ecosystems are not restricted to plantations of exotic species; they extend to inappropriate planting of native forest species (Slingsby et al., 2020). (a) (b) (c) Savannas at potential risk from afforestation Antelope species diversity Cattle distribution Antelope species Grassy biomes richness Cattle/km2 18–25 22 Grassy biomes 15–18 18 at risk of 10–15 12 afforestation and forest expansion 5–10 8 4 0–5 1 Figure Box 9.3.1 |  Many proposed tree planting plans in Africa present risks to biodiversity and livelihoods, because they are focused on (a) naturally non-forested ecosystems like savannas, grasslands and shrublands which (b) host uniquely adapted biodiversity and (c) offer important ecosystem services like grazing which supports subsistence and commercial agriculture. Figure adapted from Veldman et al. (2015); Bond et al. (2019). use change, water abstraction and diversion, damming and overfishing ecosystems safeguarding the very water resources they seek to preserve (Dodds et al., 2013; Kimirei et al., 2020; UNESCO and UN-Water, 2020). (Kolding et  al., 2016). Some countries have mandated the protection Wetlands and riparian areas support biodiversity, act as natural filtration of riparian zones, but implementation is low (Musinguzi et  al., 2015; systems and serve as buffers to changes in the hydrological cycle, thereby Muchuru and Nhamo, 2018). Protecting terrestrial areas surrounding Lake increasing the resilience of freshwater ecosystems and the people that Tanganyika benefited fish diversity (Britton et al., 2017). Afforestation rely on them (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014; Musinguzi et al., 2015; Lowe et al., reduces water availability but forest restoration and removing invasive 2019). However, national adaptation programmes of action, NAPs and plant species can increase water flows in regions facing water insecurity national communications rarely consider the ecological stability of from climate change (Chausson et  al., 2020; Le Maitre et  al., 2020). 1341 Chapter 9 Africa Regular, long-term monitoring of African freshwaters would improve increased frequency of heavy rainfall events (see Section 9.5). In west understanding of responses to climate change. General principles for this Africa, declines in river flows have been attributed to declining rainfall type of monitoring were developed for Lake Tanganyika (Plisnier et al., and increasing temperature, drought frequency and water demand 2018) and could be applied to develop harmonised, regional monitoring (Biao, 2017; Thompson et al., 2017; Descroix et al., 2018). In central of African lakes, rivers and wetlands (Tamatamah and Mwedzi, 2020) Africa, the Congo river demonstrates inter-decadal shifts but no long- term trend (Mahe et al., 2013; Alsdorf et al., 2016). However, recently 9.6.4.3 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems observed falling water levels in its upper and middle reaches are attributed to climate change (von Lossow, 2017). Marine and coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, seagrass and coral reefs provide storm protection and food security for coastal A review of river flow and lake level changes in 82 basins in eastern and communities (high confidence) (IPCC, 2019d). Restoring reef systems southern Africa regions for 1970–2010 showed mixed trends: 51% had reduced wave height in Madagascar (Narayan et al., 2016), but there is decreasing trends ranging from 10–49% and 11% increasing trends limited evidence for the efficacy of coral reef restoration at large scales ranging from 7–60% (Schäfer et al., 2015). However, in southern Africa with increased warming (Chapter 3 Section 3.6.3). Populations at risk as a whole, river flows have mostly decreased (high confidence) (Dallas 9 from storm surge and/or sea level rise coincide with areas of high and Rivers-Moore, 2014). In east Africa, large rivers such as the Tana coastal EbA potential from Mozambique to Somalia, and coastlines show increasing flow (1941–2016) related to increased rainfall in the of the Gulf of Guinea, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone (Jones highlands, with little influence of flow regulation by a series of dams et al., 2020). Understanding hotspots of EbA potential is particularly (Langat et al., 2017). The Nile river basin has been experiencing a mainly important for west Africa with some of the highest levels of human increasing rainfall trend upstream and decreasing trend downstream dependence on marine ecosystems at high risk from climate change (Onyutha et al., 2016). The observed changes are driven by a complex and large populations vulnerable to sea level rise (Sections  9.9.3.1; coupling of changes in climate, land use and water demand. 9.8.5.2; Selig et al., 2018; Trisos et al., 2020). Observed climate changes in Africa (see Section 9.5) have led to changes Marine protected areas (MPAs) can yield multiple adaptation benefits, in river flow and runoff (Dallas and Rivers-Moore, 2014; Wolski et al., such as buffering species from extinction and increasing fish stocks, as 2014) and high fluctuations in lake levels (high confidence) (Natugonza well as storing large amounts of carbon (Edgar et al., 2014; Roberts et al., 2016; Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016; Gownaris et al., 2018). Shallow et  al., 2017; Lovelock and Duarte, 2019). However, this potential of lakes respond dramatically to hydrological changes, for example, Lake MPAs will reach limits with increased warming (Roberts et al., 2017). Chilwa has dried up completely nine times in the last century (Wilson, For example, MPAs cannot prevent coral bleaching at scale and mass 2014), while Lake Chad shrunk by 90% between 1963 and 2000 (Gao die-offs are well-described from MPAs following climate shocks (Bates et al., 2011). However, recent analyses indicate that Lake Chad’s water et al., 2019; Bruno et al., 2019). However, prioritising MPA coverage of levels have been stable since 2000 due to infilling from groundwater climate refugia, such as the Northern Mozambique Channel, may offer resources (Buma et  al., 2018; Pham-Duc et  al., 2020). Other factors some increased resilience (McClanahan et al., 2014). such as deforestation and increased water use in upstream tributaries also contribute to lake shrinking (Mvula et  al., 2014). Water levels in Kenya’s mostly shallow rift lakes have been rising since 2010, with some 9.7 Water exceeding historical record high levels (Schagerl and Renaut, 2016; Olago et al., 2021). The recent 10-year rising trend is partly attributed to Much of Africa experiences very high hydrological variability in all increased rainfall and changing land uses (Onywere et al., 2012; Olago components of the water cycle, with important implications for people et  al., 2021). Changes in water level fluctuations of 13 African lakes and ecosystems. Most of the continent’s water is stored in groundwater have been positively correlated with primary and overall production (660,000 km3), which is 20  times more than the water stored in the (Gownaris et  al., 2018), and will have important consequences for lakes and 100 times more than the annual renewable water resources freshwater ecosystems and related ecosystem goods and services (see (MacDonald et  al., 2012). The accessible volume of groundwater via Sections  9.6.1.3; 9.8.5). Other effects of observed climate changes in wells and springs is smaller than these estimates (Xu et  al., 2019). Africa include higher episodic groundwater recharge, particularly in Africa has 63 transboundary river basins (UNEP, 2010), 72 mapped drylands, from heavy rainfall events that are in some cases related to transboundary aquifers (Nijsten et  al., 2018) and 33 transboundary ENSO and the IOD (Taylor et al., 2013; Fischer and Knutti, 2016; Cuthbert lakes (ILEC and UNEP, 2016), reflecting a highly water-connected and et  al., 2019; Kotchoni et  al., 2019; Myhre et  al., 2019), reduced soil interdependent socio-ecological system across countries, also extending moisture, more frequent and intense floods, more persistent and frequent to the coastal areas of the continent (see Chapter 4 Section 4.1). droughts (Douville et  al., 2021) and the steady decline and projected disappearance by 2040 of African tropical glaciers (see Section 9.5.9). 9.7.1 Observed Impacts from Climate Variability and The mixed signal in river flow trends (increase/decrease/no change) Climate Change across Africa mirrors the results seen globally for runoff and streamflow (see Chapter 4 Section 4.2.3). Hydrological extremes are, however, of Climate impacts on water are occurring against a backdrop of increasing concern. There has been an increase in drought frequency, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall, with increased severity and spatial extent in recent decades. From 1900–2013, Africa seasonal and interannual variability, droughts in some regions, and suffered the largest number of drought events globally and registered 1342 Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.4 | African cities facing water scarcity Many African cities will face increasing water scarcity under climate change (Grasham et al., 2019). The Cape Town and Dodoma cases illustrate challenges for both surface and groundwater supply and what adaptation responses have been employed. The Cape Town drought (2015–2018) The Cape Town drought illustrates how a highly diverse African city and its citizens responded to protracted and unanticipated water scarcity. Human-caused climate change made the reduced rainfall that caused the drought three times more likely (95% confidence interval 1.5–6) (Otto et al., 2018; Pascale et al., 2020; Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021). After three consecutive years of low precipitation, Cape Town braced for a ‘Day Zero’ where large portions of the city would lose water supply (Cole et al., 2021a). The risk of Day Zero was anticipated to cascade to affect risks to health, economic output and security (Simpson et al., 2021b). The case study highlights the importance of communication, budgetary flexibility, robust financial buffers and insurance mechanisms, disaster planning, 9 intergovernmental cooperation, nature-based solutions, infrastructure transformations and equitable access for climate adaptation in African cities facing water scarcity. A substantial media campaign was launched to inform residents about the severity of the drought and urge water conservation (Booysen et al., 2019; Hellberg, 2019; Ouweneel et al., 2020). Together with stringent demand management through higher water tariffs, this communication campaign played an important role in reducing consumption from 540 to 280 litres per household per day (Booysen et al., 2019; Simpson et al., 2019a). Revenue from water sales contributes 14% of Cape Town’s total revenue, making it the third-largest source of ‘own’ revenue for the city (Simpson et al., 2019b). However, with an unprecedented reduction in water use, the municipal budget was undermined (Simpson et al., 2020b). Collecting less revenue created a financial shock as the city struggled to recover operating finance, even while new capital requirements were needed for the development of expensive new water supply projects (Simpson et al., 2019b). This financial shock was compounded by the economic stress of poor agricultural and tourism performance brought about by the drought (Shepherd, 2019; Simpson et al., 2021b). As wealthy residents invested in private, off-grid water supplies, the risk of reduced municipal revenue collections from newly off-grid households aggregated with the risk of reduced tourism, increasing the risk to the reputation of the incumbent administration (Simpson et al., 2021b). This demonstrates how a population cohort with a high response capability to water scarcity can reduce risk while simultaneously increasing risks to the municipality and its capacity to provide water to vulnerable residents (Simpson et al., 2020b). Given that city populations in Africa pay 5–7 times more for water than the average price paid in the USA or Europe (Adamu and Ndi, 2017; Lwasa et al., 2018), municipal finance needs to delink operating revenue from potential climate shocks (see Box 8.6). The drought led the municipality to consider a broader diversity of water supply options, including groundwater (CoCT, 2019), developing city-scale, slow-onset disaster planning (Cole et al., 2021a) and building an enhanced ‘relationship with water’ (CoCT, 2019; Madonsela et al., 2019). This shift in approach is displayed in the recognition of nature-based solutions as a priority in water resilience-building efforts (Rodina, 2019) and is signalled in Cape Town’s Water Strategy which aims to become a ‘water sensitive city’ that makes ‘optimal use of stormwater and urban waterways for flood control, aquifer recharge, water re-use and recreation’ (CoCT, 2019). The drought required cooperation between multiple spheres of government, and the management of a broad range of stakeholders and political entities (Nhamo and Agyepong Adelaide, 2019; Cole et al., 2021a). The case highlights how a lack of coordination between essential organs of state and political entities can reduce response efficacy (Rodina, 2019). Despite significant investments in water security by public and private entities, one-quarter of Cape Town’s population remains in persistent conditions of water stress, emphasising the challenge and importance of inclusive solutions that address the persistent social and economic stressors which affect vulnerability to water scarcity (Enqvist and Ziervogel, 2019). Sustaining intensive groundwater use in a dryland city under climate change: Dodoma, Tanzania Since 1954, the Makutapora wellfield in semi-arid, central Tanzania has supplied safe water to the city of Dodoma. Substantial rises in wellfield pumping and population growth have increased freshwater demand in Dodoma and dependence upon the Makutapora wellfield, currently the sole perennial source of piped water to the city. Yet, there is high uncertainty of groundwater recharge rates (Nkotagu, 1996; Taylor et al., 2013) which rely on intense seasonal rainfall associated with the ENSO and the IOD modes of climate variability (e.g., 2 to 7 years) to contribute disproportionately to recharge (Taylor et al., 2013; Kolusu et al., 2019). 1343 Chapter 9 Africa Box 9.4 (continued) Defining a sustainable pumping rate for the Makutapora wellfield is complicated by the variable and episodic nature of groundwater replenishment in this dryland environment. For example, groundwater recharge during the 1997/1998 El Niño event, the strongest El Niño event of the 20th century, accounted for nearly 20% of all of the recharge received from 1955–2010 (Taylor et al., 2013), highlighting the vital role interannual groundwater storage plays in enabling adaptation to climate variability and change in drylands. The disproportionate contribution of intense seasonal rainfalls to the replenishment of the Makutapora wellfield, consistent with observations from across sub-Saharan Africa (Cuthbert et al., 2019), suggests that groundwater in drylands are currently naturally resilient to climate change. However, it remains unclear whether climate change will strengthen or weaken the influence of ENSO and IOD on rainfall (Brown et al., 2020) and thereby affect the predictability of groundwater recharge. As freshwater demand in Tanzania’s rapidly growing capital is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades, questions remain as to whether the capacity of the Makutapora wellfield can meet some or all of this demand. Nature-based solutions to improve 9 the resilience of wellfield abstraction to increased pumpage and climate change include managed aquifer recharge (MAR). The sharing of general lessons learned from other cities in dryland Africa employing MAR, such as Windhoek in Namibia (Murray et al., 2018), could prove invaluable. the second largest number of people affected after Asia (Masih et al., In west Africa, significant spatial variability in river flow is projected in 2014). The likelihood of recent severe climate conditions such as the the upper reaches of several rivers, with no clear pattern overall (Roudier multi-year Cape Town drought has increased due to human-caused et al., 2014) and large uncertainties in estimations of change in runoff climate change (Otto et al., 2018; Pascale et al., 2020; see Box 9.4), (Roudier et al., 2014; Bodian et al., 2018). In some higher altitude regions, and regional and urban floods (Yuan et al., 2018; Tiitmamer, 2020) and like the Niger Inland Delta in west Africa, river flows and water levels are droughts (Funk et al., 2018b; Siderius et al., 2018; Uhe et al., 2018) are expected to increase (medium confidence) (Aich et al., 2014; Thompson expected to increase. et al., 2017). In the Lower Niger Basin, combined average annual rainfall and erosivity for all the climatic models in all scenarios shows increasing However, between 2010–2020 more people across Africa have been rainfall amounts are projected to result in an increasing average change impacted by floods (e.g., related to Cyclone Idai in March 2019) in rainfall-runoff erosivity of about 14%, 19% and 24% for the 2030s, compared to droughts (Lumbroso, 2020). Coastal cities are vulnerable 2050s and 2070s, with concomitant increase in soil loss of 12%, 19% to floods related to rainfall and sea level rise (Musa et al., 2014), as and 21% (Amanambu et al., 2019). In the Volta River system, increasing exemplified by the flood disasters experienced in the Niger delta in 2012 wet season river flows (+36% by 2090s) and Volta lake outflow (+5% which displaced more than 3  million people and destroyed schools, by 2090s) are anticipated under RCP8.5 (medium confidence) (Awotwi clinics, markets and electricity installations (Amadi and Ogonor, 2015). A et al., 2015; Jin et al., 2018). In the Volta River basin, compared to From 2000–2015, the proportion of people exposed to floods grew by 1976–2005, drought events are projected to increase by 1.2 events per 20–24%, mostly in Africa and Asia, with Mozambique and multiple decade at around 2°C to 1.6 events per decade at around 2.5°C global countries in West Africa estimated to have had the proportion of their warming, and drought area extent is projected to increase by 24% to populations exposed to flooding increase by more than 50% (Tellman 34% (Oguntunde et  al., 2017). In central Africa, runoff in the Congo et  al., 2021) and these numbers will increase under climate change. river system may increase by up to 50% (RCP8.5), especially in the wet Sectoral impacts from flooding within Africa and globally are further season, enhancing flood risks in the entire Congo Basin, particularly elaborated on in Sections 9.8.2 and 9.8.5.1, Table 9.3 and Chapter 4 in the central and western parts (CSC, 2013). Average river flows are Section 4.3. expected to increase in most parts of central Africa, with expected increases in total potential hydropower production (Ludwig et al., 2013), but see Box 9.5. 9.7.2 Projected Risks and Vulnerability In north Africa, in the upper White Nile basin, Olaka et  al. (2019) 9.7.2.1 Projected Risks project a 25% and 5–10% (RCP4.5) increase in the intensification of future annual rainfall in the eastern and western parts of the Lake By 2050, up to 921 million additional people in sub-Saharan Africa Victoria Basin, respectively, with corresponding variability in future could be exposed to climate change-related water stress, while up river discharge ranging from 5% to 26%. In the upper Blue Nile basin, to 459 million could experience reduced exposure (Dickerson et al., models also indicate up to 15% increase in runoffs in wet season and 2021). This large variance in numbers and direction of change is up to −24% decrease in dry season during 2021–2040 (RCP8.5) (Ayele related to uncertainties in climate models and non-climate factors et al., 2016; Siam and Eltahir, 2017; Meresa and Gatachew, 2018). The like population growth and water withdrawals (Dickerson et  al., increase of precipitation in the wet season indicates a higher possibility 2021). The baseline for most of the projected risks presented here of flash floods, while decreased runoffs in dry season further intensify is 1971–2000. existing shortage of irrigation water demand (Ayele et al., 2016; Siam 1344 Africa Chapter 9 Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of lake heatwaves across Africa (a) Under 1.8°C global warming (RCP2.6 in 2070–2099) (b) Under 4.2°C global warming (RCP8.5 in 2070–2099) Temperature °C per decade 9 0.5 Average intensity 0.25 of future lake heatwaves 0.1 3.97–4.54°C 3.69–3.97°C 0 3.21–3.69°C No data 2.92–3.21°C 2.69–2.92°C Not significant 2.27–2.69°C 1.89–2.27°C Figure 9.21 |  Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of lake heatwaves across Africa. Projected increases in average intensity of lake heatwaves (°C) under (a) 1.8°C global warming (RCP2.6 in 2070–2099) and (b) 4.2°C global warming (RCP8.5 in 2070–2099). Each lake is represented by a point. Data were extracted from Woolway et al. (2021). and Eltahir, 2017; Meresa and Gatachew, 2018). The annual flow and projections of strong early summer drying trends remain uncertain revenues from hydropower production and irrigated agriculture of the (Munday and Washington, 2019). Blue Nile River at Khartoum are projected to increase under maximum but are expected to decrease under minimum and median projected Changes in the amplitude, timing and frequency of extreme events changes in streamflow for 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, respectively such as droughts and floods will continue to affect lake levels, rates of (Tariku et al., 2021). The Middle Draa valley in Morocco is expected river discharge and runoff and groundwater recharge (high confidence) to experience more severe droughts and the estimation of the water (Gownaris et al., 2016; Darko et al., 2019), but with disparate effects balance suggests a lack of supply in the future (Karmaoui et al., 2016). at regional, basin and sub-basin scales, and at seasonal, annual and longer timescales. The increased frequency of extreme rainfall events In east Africa, Liwenga et  al. (2015) project warmer and wetter under climate change (Myhre et  al., 2019) is projected to amplify conditions in the Great Ruaha River region and with increasing groundwater recharge in drylands (Jasechko and Taylor, 2015; Cuthbert seasonal variation and extremes towards the end of the century. A et al., 2019). However, declining trends in rainfall and snowfall in some similar observation is made for the River Pangani, with mean river areas of north Africa (Donat et al., 2014b) are projected to continue flow being about 10% higher in the 2050s relative to the 1980–1999 in a warming world (Seif-Ennasr et al., 2016), restricting groundwater period, associated with a 16–18% increase in rainfall in its upper recharge from meltwater flows, exacerbating the salinisation and catchment (Kishiwa et al., 2018). However, at more local scales, the depletion of groundwater (Hamed et al., 2018) and increasing the risk projections cover a range of slight declines to significant increases of reduced soil moisture (Petrova et  al., 2018) in this region where in mean annual rainfall amounts (Gulacha and Mulungu, 2017). In groundwater abstraction is greatest (Wada et al., 2014). the Tana River basin in Kenya, water yield is projected to increase progressively under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 relative to the baseline period Lake surface temperatures across Africa are expected to rise in tandem 1983–2011 but is characterised by distinct spatial heterogeneity with increasing global warming. Lake heatwaves, periods of extreme (Muthuwatta et al., 2018). warm lake surface water temperature, are projected to become hotter and longer (Figure 9.21), with heatwaves more than 300 days per year In southern Africa, reductions in rainfall over the Limpopo and Zambezi in many lakes for global warming of 4.2°C (Woolway et  al., 2021). river basins under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming could have adverse Lake warming is expected to have adverse consequences for aquatic impacts on hydropower generation, irrigation, tourism, agriculture and biodiversity, habitats, water quality and disruption of current lake physical ecosystems (Figure Box  9.5.1) (Maúre et  al., 2018), although model processes and circulation patterns (Kraemer et al., 2021). 1345 Chapter 9 Africa 9.7.2.2 Vulnerability Stringer et al., 2021). Appropriate ecosystem-based adaptations that are applicable at scale should be identified and strongly embedded in these Climate change is projected to reduce water availability and increase the approaches to deliver multiple benefits while maintaining the integrity of extent of water scarcity (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016), particularly in ecosystems and biodiversity (UN Environment, 2019; see Sections 9.6.4; southern and north Africa, while other regions will be more affected by 9.8.5; Box 4.6). Furthermore, adaptation options are often influenced or increased hydrological variability over temporally short to interannual constrained by institutions, regulation, availability, distribution, price and time scales (see Section 9.6.2). African countries are considered to be technologies (McCarl et al., 2016). Thus, institutional capacity to manage particularly at risk due to their underlying vulnerabilities (IPCC, 2014b; complex water supply systems under rapidly increasing demand and UNESCO and UN-Water, 2020), yet the continents’ water resources climate change stress is critical in achieving water security for African are still inadequately quantified and modelled (Müller Schmied et al., cities, particularly as cities become more dependent on alternative and 2016; Reinecke et  al., 2019), constraining sustainable management distant water sources (Padowski et al., 2016). practices (Cuthbert et al., 2019; Hughes, 2019). 9.7.3.2 Adopting Nexus Lenses Hydrological fluctuations are associated with drought, flood and 9 cyclone events which have had multi-sector impacts across Africa The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus explicitly recognises the strong (Siderius et  al., 2021; see Chapter  4 Sections  4.3; 4.5), including: interdependencies of these three sectors and their high levels of reduced crop production (D’Odorico et  al., 2018), migration and exposure to climate change (Zografos et al., 2014; Dottori et al., 2018; displacement (Siam and Eltahir, 2017; IDMC, 2018), food insecurity see Box 9.5). With increasing societal demands on more variable water and extensive livestock deaths (Nhamo et al., 2018), electricity outages resources under climate change, an intensification of WEF competition (Gannon et  al., 2018), increased incidence of cholera (Olago et  al., and trade-offs are projected (D’Odorico et  al., 2018; Dottori et  al., 2007; Sorensen et al., 2015; Houéménou et al., 2020) and increased 2018). Other interacting factors, for example, the increasing number groundwater abstraction amplifying the risk of saline intrusion from of transnational investments in land resources can lead to localised sea level rise (Hamed et al., 2018; Ouhamdouch et al., 2019). increased competition for water resources (Messerli et  al., 2014; Breu et  al., 2016; Chiarelli et  al., 2016). Understanding such nexus The literature shows significant gender-differentiated vulnerability and interlinkages can help characterise risks to water resource security, intersectional vulnerability to climate change impacts on water in Africa identify co-benefits and clarify the range of multi-sectoral actors (Fleifel et al., 2019; Grasham et al., 2019; Mackinnon et al., 2019; Dickin involved in and affected by development decisions (Kyriakarakos et al., et al., 2020; Lund Schlamovitz and Becker, 2020), although studies are 2020). Major barriers and entry points for greater integration include generally lacking in northern Africa (Daoud, 2021). Women and girls coordination of horizontal policy and integration of climate change are, in most cases, more impacted than men and boys by customary adaptation actions (England et al., 2018), capturing the scarcity values water practices, as adult females are the primary water collectors of water and energy embedded in food/energy products (Allan et al., (46% in Liberia to 90% in Cote d’Ivoire), while more female than male 2015), and inclusion of community-based organisations such as children are associated with water collection (62% compared with water resource user associations (Villamayor-Tomas et al., 2015) and 38%, respectively) (Graham et al., 2016). Women and girls face barriers agricultural cooperatives (Kyriakarakos et al., 2020). toward accessing basic sanitation and hygiene resources, and 71% of studies reported a negative health outcome, reflecting a water–gender– 9.7.3.3 Climate-proofing Water Infrastructure health nexus (Pouramin et al., 2020). These differential vulnerabilities are crucial for informing adaptation, but are still relatively under-researched, While natural variability in the hydrological cycle has always been more so for the urban poor than rural communities (Grasham et  al., considered by water resources planners and engineers (Müller 2019; Mackinnon et al., 2019; Lund Schlamovitz and Becker, 2020). Schmied et al., 2016; Muller, 2018), many countries will have to take into consideration the range of historically unprecedented extremes expected in the future. Increasingly, the provision of urban water 9.7.3 Water Adaptation Options and Their Feasibility security is dependent on the functioning of complex bulk water infrastructure systems consisting of dams, inter-basin transfers, 9.7.3.1 Reducing Risk Through a Systems Approach to Water pipelines, pump stations, water treatment plants and distribution Resources Planning and Management networks (McDonald et al., 2014). Risk-based studies on the potential climate change risks for water security show that there are benefits An integrated systems and risk-based approach to the design and when risks are reduced at the tails of the distribution—floods and management of water resources at scale is generally accepted as a droughts—even if there is little benefit in terms of changes in the practical and viable way of underpinning the resilience of water systems mean (Arndt et  al., 2019). When risk is taken into account in an to climate change and human pressures (Duffy, 2012; García et al., 2014). integrated (national) bulk water infrastructure supply system, the Such approaches confer multiple benefits to nature and society at scale overall impact of climate change on the average availability of water to and enhance efficiency gains through technology and management meet current and future demands is significantly reduced (Cullis et al., improvements, but their full implementation has not yet been realised 2015). Further, stemming leakages and enhancing efficiency through (Weinzierl and Schilling, 2013; McDonald et al., 2014; UN Environment, technology and management improvements is important in building 2019). Drylands are particularly singled out as ignored areas that require climate-resilient water conveyance systems (UN Environment, 2019). integrated water resource management approaches (Section  9.3.1; African cities could leap-frog through the development phases to 1346 Africa Chapter 9 achieve a water sensitive city ideal, reaping benefits such as improved 9.7.3.4 Decision Support Tools for Managing Complex Water liveability, reduced flooding impacts, safe water and overall lower Systems net energy requirements and avoid making the mistakes developed countries’ cities have made (Fisher-Jeffes et al., 2017) (Brodnik et al., Many studies in Africa use the river basin as a unit of analysis at scale 2018). However, the challenge of large proportions of the population and adopt sophisticated model-based techniques to assess climate lacking access to even basic water supply and sanitation infrastructure change impacts on hydrology under different climate and development (Armitage et  al., 2014) must be simultaneously and effectively scenarios, thereby presenting trade-offs between competing uses such addressed, particularly in light of other major exacerbating factors, like as hydropower generation, irrigation and ecosystem requirements the COVID-19 pandemic (Section 9.11.5). (Section  9.12.1; Yang and Wi, 2018; Ahmed, 2020). However, longer Box 9.5 | Water–energy–food nexus The interdependencies in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, coupled with its high exposure to climate change, amplify WEF risks. Risks 9 can be transmitted from one WEF sector to the other two with cascading risks to human health, cities and infrastructure (Conway et al., 2015; Mpandeli et al., 2018; Nhamo et al., 2018; Yang and Wi, 2018; Ding et al., 2019; Simpson et al., 2021b). For example, increasing demand for water for agricultural and energy production is driving an increasing competition over water resources between food and energy industries which, among other effects, compromises the nutritional needs of local populations (Zografos et al., 2014; Dottori et al., 2018). Drought events, such as in southern Africa during the 2015/16 El Niño, have been associated with major multi-sector impacts on food security (over 40 million food-insecure people and extensive livestock deaths) and reduced energy security through disruption to hydropower generation (associated in Zambia with the lowest rate of real economic growth in over 15 years) (Nhamo et al., 2018). The WEF nexus of the Nile and Zambezi river basins, which include many of Africa’s largest existing hydropower dams, have received the most attention. In these two regions, where socioeconomic development is already driving up demand, projections indicate that water scarcity may be exacerbated by drying (Munday and Washington, 2019) and increased flow variability (Siam and Eltahir, 2017). However, for Africa more widely, very few studies fully integrate all three WEF nexus sectors and rarely include an explicit focus on climate change. In Africa, the climate risks that the water, energy and food sectors will face in the future are heavily influenced by the infrastructure decisions that governments make in the near term. The AU’s Programme for Infrastructure Development (PIDA), along with other national energy plans (jointly referred to as PIDA+), aim to increase hydropower capacity nearly six-fold, irrigation capacity by over 60% and hydropower storage capacity by over 80% in major African river basins (Cervigni et al., 2015). The vast majority of hydropower additions would occur in the Congo, Niger, Nile and Zambezi river basins, and the majority of the irrigation capacity additions would occur in the Niger, Nile and Zambezi River basins (Figure Box 9.5.1; Huber-Lee et al., 2015). Climate change risk to the productivity of this rapidly expanding hydropower and irrigation infrastructure compound the overall WEF nexus risk. Future levels of rainfall, evaporation and runoff will have a substantial impact on hydropower and irrigation production. Climate models disagree on whether climates will become wetter or dryer in each river basin. Cervigni et al. (2015) modelled revenues from the sale of hydroelectricity and irrigated crops in major African river basins under different climate scenarios between 2015 and 2050 (Figure Box 9.5.1). The study found that hydropower revenues in the driest climate scenarios could be 58% lower in the Zambezi River basin, 30% lower in the Orange basin and 7% lower in the Congo basin relative to a scenario with current climate conditions. Hydropower revenues in the wettest climate scenario could be more than 20% higher in the Zambezi river basin and 50% higher in the Orange basin. The biggest risk to the production of irrigated crops is in the eastern Nile where irrigation revenue could be 34% lower in the driest scenario and 11% higher in the wettest than in a scenario without climate change (Cervigni et al., 2015). Studies have used the river basin as a unit of analysis and adopted sophisticated techniques to assess and present trade-offs between competing uses. For example, Yang and Wi (2018) consider the WEF nexus in the Great Ruaha tributary of the Rufiji River in Tanzania motivated by an observed decrease in streamflow during the dry season in the 1990s, but without an explicit focus on climate. Yang and Wi (2018) show sensitivity of water availability for irrigated crop production to warming, and sensitivity of hydropower generation and ecosystem health to changes in precipitation and dam development. Understanding of WEF nexus interlinkages can help characterise risks and identify entry points and the relevant institutional levels for cross-sectoral climate change adaptation actions (England et al., 2018). An integrated response can be enhanced through the inclusion of community-based organisations, such as water resource user associations and the wide range of other multi-sectoral actors involved in and affected by development decisions. Capturing the scarcity values of water and energy embedded in food and other products can help identify the co-benefits and costs of integrated adaptation (Allan et al., 2015). 1347 Chapter 9 Africa Box 9.5 (continued) Climate risks to hydropower and irrigation in Africa (a) Distribution of hydropower plants within 7 major river basins (b) Correlation of historical annual river flows negative weak strong Nile (Equatorial) Zambezi Congo Niger Senegal Senegal Niger Nile (Eastern) Nile (Eastern) -0.28 0.29 0.25 0.34 0.52 Nile (Equatorial) 0.03 0.43 -0.18 -0.25 9 Volta Zambezi 0.46 0.52 0.38 Congo 0.43 0.31 Congo Niger 0.74 Nile Approximate areas (Equatorial) of shared rainfall variability & Hydropower concentrated Hydropower plants clustered within the same areas, are likely to 63 existing hydropower capacity experience similar rainfall and run-off patterns, increasing the risk 79 planned (2015–2050) Zambezi that neighbouring states will experience concurrent drought-induced hydropower shortages. Capacity (Megawatts) When historical annual river flows are weakly or negatively 3,052–39,000 correlated, power trade between basins will be more effective in 1,601–3,050 751–1,600 Orange managing the risk of shortages than power trade between those 256–750 experiencing similar patterns. 5–255 (c) Existing hydropower Planned hydropower (d) Forecast revenues from planned hydropower 13,774 MW 80,074 MW under different climate scenarios (2015–2050) Zambezi Nile Congo 200 Highest risk to 4,827 21,392 44,402 hydropower output is Max. revenue in the Zambezi, where Min. revenue Existing + 150 the driest scenarios would see a 58% Net present value in 2012 planned reduction in revenues (without climate change) hydropower relative to a scenario 93,848 100 without climate change Megawatts Niger Zambezi 4,667 8,204 50 0 Congo Zambezi Nile Nile Niger Volta Senegal (Eastern) (Equatorial) (e) Existing irrigation Planned irrigation (f) Forecast revenues from planned irrigation 7,765,688 Ha 4,854,870 Ha under different climate scenarios (2015–2050) Nile Senegal Niger 200 6,220,270 754,460 1,791,457 Highest risk to production of irrigated Existing + crops is in the 150 Eastern Nile, where planned irrigation revenue irrigation Niger could be 34% lower in 12,620,558 738,011 Nile Zambezi 100 the driest scenario than the baseline Hectars 772,350 668,542 scenario 50 Senegal Volta 255,327 177,389 0 Congo Zambezi Nile Nile Niger Volta Senegal (Eastern) (Equatorial) 1348 Billions US$ Billions US$ Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.5 (continued) Figure Box 9.5.1 |  Climate risks to hydropower and irrigation in Africa. (a) The map shows the location and size of existing (blue) and planned (orange) hydropower plants in African governments’ infrastructure expansion plans, 2015–2050. (b) Matrix shows historical correlations in annual river flows between some of the major river basins indicating risk of hydropower shortages where correlations are higher. (c, e) Existing and planned hydropower and irrigation are indicated in charts. Dark blue shows forecasted revenues from 2015–2050 of existing hydropower and irrigation in major African river basins in a scenario without further climate change (i.e., based on historical data). Orange in charts (c, e) shows the expected increase in hydropower and irrigation revenues as new hydropower and irrigation infrastructure is added based on planned infrastructure development (PIDA+) in a scenario without climate change. (d, f) The bar graphs show the forecast revenues for hydropower and irrigation infrastructure in each river basin under 121 different climate scenarios from 2015–2050, highlighting risk to revenues from high variability in river discharge due to climate change. In river basins with a wide range of potential river flow outcomes due to climate change, such as the eastern Nile and Zambezi, there is substantial uncertainty around revenue forecasts and potential for large reductions in future revenue. Hydropower revenues refer to net present value of hydroelectricity produced in each river basin over the period 2015–2050, and irrigation revenues refer to the crop revenues per hectare for each crop multiplied by the number of hectares of each crop across the basin. All figures are estimates of the net present value of revenues, using a discount rate of 3%, and are in 2012 USD billions. The 121 potential climate futures were derived using different General Circulation Models (GCMs), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and downscaling methods. IPCC AR4 and AR5 provided data from 22 and 23 GCMs, respectively. These were evaluated across two or three emissions 9 pathways, including RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation method of downscaling was then used to derive 99 potential climate futures. An additional 22 climate futures (11 GCMs driven by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions pathways) were produced using the Empirical Statistical Downscaling Methods developed at the Climate Systems Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town. Data sourced from Cervigni et al. (2015). (multi-decadal) hydrological datasets and model improvements about water resources, including location, quality and storage methods are required (Taye et  al., 2015), and models should incorporate the because they are primarily responsible for the management of water for quantification of the wider benefits, risks and political opportunities household water supply, sanitation and health, and for productive uses arising from reservoir development to better inform decision makers in subsistence agriculture (UN-Water, 2006). As gender-differentiated to achieve a higher level of (transboundary) cooperation (Digna et al., relationships are complex, adaptation should take into account 2016; Nijsten et  al., 2018). Collaboration between scientists and intersectional differences such as homeownership, employment and policymakers to address the complexity of decision making under age (Harris et al., 2016), educational, infrastructural and programmatic uncertainty (Steynor et al., 2016) (Pienaar and Hughes, 2017), coupled interventions (Pouramin et al., 2020), aspects of protection and safety with community involvement in participatory scenario development and (Mackinnon et al., 2019), barriers to adaptation and gendered differences participatory GIS to aid in collaborative planning that is context specific in the choice of adaptation measures (Mersha and Van Laerhoven, 2016), (Muhati et al., 2018; Álvarez Larrain and McCall, 2019) are powerful the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations tools for more beneficial adaptive and resilience-building actions. (Djoudi et al., 2016; Rao et al., 2017), and inclusion and empowerment of women in the management of environmental resources (Makina and 9.7.3.5 Other Adaptation Options Moyo, 2016). Incorporation of gender and water inequities into climate change adaptation would have a significant impact on achieving the Climate change is projected to increase dependence upon groundwater SDGs (particularly 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6), while failure to incorporate gender withdrawals in most parts of Africa as an adaptive strategy to amplified will undermine adaptation efforts (Bunce and Ford, 2015; Fleifel et al., variability in precipitation and surface water resources, highlighting 2019; Pouramin et al., 2020). the need for conjunctive surface-groundwater management and rainwater harvesting (Cobbing and Hiller, 2019; Taylor et  al., 2019). Alternative water supply options such as desalination, managed 9.8 Food Systems aquifer recharge, stormwater harvesting and re-use (direct and indirect, potable and non-potable), all require significant amounts of Ideally, a systems approach (Ericksen, 2008; Rosenzweig et al., 2020) energy and are complex to operate and maintain. A failure to provide a could be used to assess how global environmental changes affect source of reliable energy and the capacity to implement, maintain and the food sector in Africa, emphasising the complex interactions that operate these systems is a significant contributor to water scarcity risks exist within the components of the food supply system, including its in Africa (Muller and Wright, 2016). Soft adaptation options include enabling socioeconomic and biophysical environment (Ingram, 2011; increasing water use efficiency, changing agricultural practices, more Foran et  al., 2014; Tendall et  al., 2015), and how food is connected appropriate water pricing (Olmstead, 2014) and enhancing capacity to other critical systems such as energy, water and transportation to tackle groundwater overexploitation (Kuper et  al., 2016), among (Albrecht et  al., 2018; see Box 9.5). Production will not be the only others (see Section 9.10.2.4 and Chapter 4 Sections 4.6 and 4.7). aspect of food security that is impacted by climate change. Processing, storage, distribution and consumption will also be affected. Access 9.7.3.6 Mainstreaming Gender Across all Adaptation Options to healthy and adequate food in the face of climate change requires resilience across these components of the food system (Adenle et al., Gender is important in building resilience and adaptation pathways to 2017). However, most studies on climate change impacts on food in global environmental change (Ravera et al., 2016). It is well-established Africa are heavily focused on production only. A significant knowledge that women, in most societies, have accumulated considerable knowledge gap, therefore, exists around the complex ways in which climate 1349 Chapter 9 Africa change will interact with broader components of African food systems, for pastoralist communities in east and southern Africa (Sonwa et al., and strategies for making these systems more resilient, particularly 2017; Basupi et al., 2019). Rural communities often have poor transport in a context of rapid population growth and urbanisation across the networks, limited access to markets or information and fewer livelihood continent (Adenle et al., 2017; Schmitt Olabisi et al., 2018). alternatives, and are less able to be informed of risks or be assisted in the event of extreme climate events (Sonwa et al., 2017; Basupi et al., 2019). 9.8.1 Vulnerability to Observed and Projected Impacts Extreme climate events have been key drivers in rising acute food from Climate Change insecurity and malnutrition of millions of people requiring humanitarian assistance in Africa (high confidence). Between 2015 and 2019, an Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed and subsistence across Africa. estimated 45.1  million people in the Horn of Africa and 62  million The dominant farming system is mixed cereal–livestock (Thornton and people in eastern and southern Africa required humanitarian assistance Herrero, 2015; Nematchoua et al., 2019), with pastoral systems in east due to climate-related food emergencies. Children and pregnant women Africa, and commercial livestock and crop systems also representing a experience disproportionately greater adverse health and nutrition significant proportion of the food system in southern Africa (Thornton impacts (very high confidence) (Gebremeskel Haile et  al., 2019; see 9 and Herrero, 2015). Many African regions are vulnerable to food Chapter 7 Section 7.2.4). insecurity, facing dwindling food production, food access, stocks and income due to low adaptive capacity (Evariste et al., 2018; Fuller et al., Future climate warming is projected to have a substantial adverse 2018; Bang et al., 2019; Gebre and Rahut, 2021). impact on food security in Africa and is anticipated to coincide with low adaptive capacity as climate change intensifies other anthropogenic Across regions with food systems highly vulnerable to climate change, stressors, as 85% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend female farmers, cocoa farmers, pastoralists, plantain farmers, coastal on agriculture for their livelihoods (Adams, 2018; Mahmood et  al., zone communities, rural households and forest communities in central 2019). This highlights the need to prioritise innovative measures for Africa indicate higher vulnerability (Chia et al., 2016; Schut et al., 2016; reducing vulnerabilities in African food systems (Fuller et  al., 2018; Nematchoua et  al., 2019). Their vulnerability is multi-dimensional Mahmood et al., 2019). and affected by low adaptive capacity, location, livelihood system, socioeconomic status, gender, age and ethnicity (Perez et  al., 2015; Climate change impacts could increase the global number of people Weston et al., 2015; Gebre and Rahut, 2021; see also Box 9.1). at risk of hunger in 2050 by 8 million under a scenario of sustainable development (SSP1) and 80  million under a scenario of reduced Across Africa, including west Africa, adverse climate conditions for international cooperation and low environmental protection (SSP3), agricultural and pastoral livelihoods have contributed to rural to urban with populations concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and migration patterns and migration among African regions (see Box 9.8; central America (see Chapter  5 Sections  5.2.2; 5.4.2; 5.4.3). Global Baudoin et  al., 2014; Abbas, 2017; Gemenne and Blocher, 2017b). climate impacts on food availability are expected to lead to higher food Rural to urban migration may increase vulnerability of migrants prices, increasing the risk of hunger for people in African countries, through exposure to additional risks, including food insecurity (Amadi and slowing progress towards eradicating child undernutrition and and Ogonor, 2015; Abbas, 2017). In general, west African countries malnutrition in all its forms (see Chapter 7 Section 7.4). are characterised by the poor adaptive capacity of rural households (Douxchamps et al., 2015; Dumenu and Obeng, 2016). 9.8.2 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks to Crops In north Africa, livelihoods and economies are strongly dependent and Livestock on agriculture. Pressure on water demand due to climate change and variability is threatening income, development processes and 9.8.2.1 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks for Staple Crops food security in the region (high confidence) (Mohmmed et al., 2018; Khedr, 2019). Increased temperatures and droughts have enhanced the Climate change is already negatively impacting crop production and vulnerability of the irrigation sector (Verner et al., 2018; İlseven et al., slowing productivity growth in Africa (high confidence) (Iizumi et al., 2019), and the combined effect of these hazards negatively affects 2018; Ray et al., 2019; Sultan et al., 2019; Ortiz-Bobea et al., 2021). crop and animal production (Mohmmed et  al., 2018; Verner et  al., Climate change has reduced total agricultural productivity growth in 2018). For example, dairy farms in Tunisia are experiencing warmer Africa by 34% since 1961, more than in any other region (Ortiz-Bobea temperatures above the thermoneutral zone of cows for more than et al., 2021). Maize yields have decreased 5.8% and wheat yields 2.3%, 5  months each year, reducing production efficiency and resulting in on average, in sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change in the period significant economic losses (Amamou et al., 2018). 1974–2008 (Ray et al., 2019). Overall, climate change has decreased total food calories across all crops in sub-Saharan Africa by 1.4% on Non-climatic stressors aggravate food insecurity in many parts of average compared to a no climate change counterfactual since 1970, the continent, including lack of access to production inputs and land, with up to 10% reductions in Ghana and Zimbabwe (Ray et al., 2019). lack of education and limited income sources, with adverse climate impacts on agriculture reducing education attainment for children Farmers perceive a wide variety of climate threats to crop production (Section 9.11.1.2; Evariste et al., 2018; Fuller et al., 2018). Geographic including droughts, precipitation variability, a delayed onset and overall and social isolation is another type of social vulnerability, especially reductions in early growing season rainfall and excess heat (Rankoana, 1350 Africa Chapter 9 2016a; Elum et  al., 2017; Kichamu et  al., 2017; Alvar-Beltrán et  al., phosphorus are limiting crop growth. Additional Free-Air Carbon dioxide 2020). Farmers attribute these perceived changes as a major driver Enrichment (FACE) experiments are needed in the tropics, particularly of yield losses (Ayanlade and Jegede, 2016; see Section 9.4.5). Over on the African continent, to better understand the impacts of increased half of surveyed farmers in west Africa perceive increases in crop pests CO2 concentrations on the productivity of crops and cultivars grown in and diseases as due to climate change as the range and seasonality of Africa under additional temperature impacts and water and nutrient many pests and diseases change under warming (Callo-Concha, 2018). limitations (Ainsworth and Long, 2021). Warming and elevated CO2 Pests and diseases contribute between 10–35% yield losses for wheat, may also change the nutritional content of some crops. By 2050 under rice, maize, potato and soybean in sub-Saharan Africa (Savary et al., RCP8.5 (2.4°C global warming), overall wheat yields and grain protein 2019). Recent locust outbreaks in 2019 in east Africa have been linked content may decrease by 10% and 15%, respectively, in north and east to climate conditions caused in part by ocean warming (Wang et al., Africa, and by over 15% in southern Africa (Asseng et al., 2019). See 2020b; see Box 5.8). Chapter 5 for more details on CO2 impacts and uncertainties. Future climate change may increase insect pest-driven losses in Africa 9.8.2.2 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks on Regional Cash for maize, rice and wheat. Compared to 1950–2000, losses may Crops and Food Crops increase by up to 50% at 2°C of global warming (Deutsch et al., 2018). 9 However, many challenges remain in modelling pest and disease under Few studies have attributed changes in yields of cash crops and other climate change with additional research needed expanding the range regionally important food crops in Africa to human-caused climate of crops and diseases studied (Newbery et al., 2016). change, but recent research suggests yields of cash crops in Africa have already been impacted by climate change, in both a negative Agriculture in Africa is especially vulnerable to future climate change and positive manner (Falco et al., 2012; Traore et al., 2013; Ray et al., in part because 90–95% of African food production is rainfed (Adams, 2019). For example, between the period 1974–2008, sugarcane yields 2018). Maize, rice, wheat and soybean yields in tropical regions decreased on average by 3.9% and 5.1% in sub-Saharan Africa and (20°S–20°N) are projected to decrease approximately 5% per degree north Africa, respectively, due to climate change, while sorghum yields Celsius of global warming in a multi-model ensemble (Rosenzweig increased 0.7%, and cassava yield increased 1.7% in sub-Saharan et  al., 2014; Franke et  al., 2020). Dryland agricultural areas are Africa and 18% in north Africa (Ray et al., 2019). especially sensitive to changes in rainfall. For example, without adaptation, substantial yield declines are projected for staple crops There are also limited studies assessing projected climate change impacts in north Africa. A recent meta-analysis of 56  studies indicates that, on important cash crops and food crops other than maize, rice and wheat compared to 1995–2005, economic welfare in the agriculture sector (Jarvis et al., 2012; Schroth et al., 2016; Awoye et al., 2017). These studies in north Africa is projected to decline 5% for 2°C global warming and often represent changes at specific sites in a country or assess changes 20% for 3°C global warming, and in sub-Saharan Africa by 5% (2°C) in the yield and/or suitability for cultivating a specific crop across a larger and 10% (3°C) (Moore et  al., 2017a), both more pessimistic than geographic area. Climate change is projected to have overall positive previous economic estimates. impacts on sugarcane and Bambara nuts in southern Africa, oil palm in Nigeria and chickpea in Ethiopia (low confidence) (Figure 9.23). A synthesis of projected staple crop impacts across 35  studies for nearly 1040 locations and cases shows, on average, decreases in Climate change is projected to reduce sorghum yields in west Africa crop yields with increasing global warming across staple crops in (Figure  9.23). For example, across the west African Sahel savanna Africa, including when accounting for CO2 increases and adaptation sorghum yields are projected to decline on average 2% at 1.5°C and 5% measures. For example, for maize in west Africa, compared to 2005 at 2°C global warming (Faye et al., 2018). For coffee and tea in eastern yield levels, median projected yields decrease 9% at 1.5°C global Africa, olives in Algeria and sunflower in Botswana and Morocco, warming and 41% at 4°C, without adaptation (Figure 9.22). However, studies indicate mostly negative impacts on production systems. uncertainties in projected impacts across crops and regions are driven For example, in Kenya, compared to 2000, optimal habitat for tea by uncertainties in crop responses to increasing CO2 and adaptation production is projected to decrease in area by 27% with yields declining response, especially for maize in east Africa and wheat in north Africa 10% for global warming of 1.8–1.9°C, although yield declines may be and east Africa (Figure 9.22; Hasegawa et al., 2021). reduced at higher levels of warming (Beringer et al., 2020; Jayasinghe and Kumar, 2020; Rigden et al., 2020). Suitable area for tea production There is also growing evidence that climate change is likely beginning may reduce by half in Uganda (Eitzinger et al., 2011; Läderach et al., to outpace adaptation in agricultural systems in parts of Africa (Rippke 2013). In east Africa, the coffee-growing area is projected to shift up et al., 2016). For example, despite the use of adjusted sowing dates and in elevation with suitability decreasing 10–30% between 1.5–2°C of existing heat-tolerant varieties, Sudan’s domestic production share of global warming (Bunn et al., 2015; Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). wheat may decrease from 16.0% to 4.5–12.2% by 2050 under RCP8.5 (2.4°C global warming) (Iizumi et al., 2021). For all other crops, there is at least one study that finds low to highly negative impacts for one or several warming levels (Figure  9.23). Elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere might mitigate some or Mixed results on the direction of change often occur when several all climate-driven losses (Swann et al., 2016; Durand et al., 2018), but contrasting sites with varying baseline climates are studied, and when there is considerable uncertainty around the CO2 response (Deryng et al., a study considers the full range of climate scenarios. For example, 2016; Toreti et al., 2020), especially when nutrients such as nitrogen and there are mixed results on the direction of change for impacts of 1.5°C 1351 Chapter 9 Africa Projected yield changes for major crops in Africa due to climate change Compared to 2005 yield levels Without With adaptation adaptation Maize Rice Wheat Global warming level Global warming level Global warming level >1.5 >2.0 >3.0 >4.0 >1.5 >2.0 >3.0 >4.0 >1.5 >2.0 >3.0 >4.0 50 Northern Africa Yield impact (%) 0 9 -50 -100 50 Western Africa Yield impact (%) 0 -50 -100 50 Eastern Africa Yield impact (%) 0 -50 -100 50 Southern Africa Yield impact (%) 0 -50 -100 Figure 9.22 |  Projected yield changes for major staple crops in Africa due to climate change (compared to 2005 yield levels). Projected impacts are grouped by projected global warming levels. Boxplots show a synthesis of projected staple crop impacts, with and without adaptation measures (e.g., planting date, cultivar, tillage or irrigation). On average crop yields are projected to decrease with increasing global warming across staple crops in Africa. The overall adaptation potential to offset yield losses across Africa for rice, maize and wheat reduces with increasing global warming. On average, in projections including adaptation options, yield losses in the median case are reduced from −33% to −10% of 2005 levels at 2°C of global warming and from −46% to −23% at 4°C. Global warming levels were calculated using a baseline for pre-industrial global mean temperature of 1850–1900 . Data are a synthesis across 35 studies for nearly 1040 locations and cases of projected impacts for regions of Africa for maize, rice and wheat (Hasegawa et al., 2021; Table SM9.5). global warming on cassava, cotton, cocoa and millet in west Africa Asaminew et  al., 2017; Bouregaa, 2019). Occasionally, two studies (low confidence) (Figure 9.23). In general, there is limited evidence in agree on the direction and magnitude of change, for example, for the direction of change, due to single studies being available for most potatoes in east Africa, yields are projected to decrease by 11–17% crop-country combinations (Knox et al., 2010; Chemura et al., 2013; with 3°C of warming (Fleisher et al., 2010; Tatsumi et al., 2011). 1352 Africa Chapter 9 Projected risks at increasing global warming levels for regionally important cash and food crops in Africa Projected changes per global warming level Adaptation Crop Region (country) >1.5°C >2.0°C >3.0°C >4.0°C options Cassava East Africa % change in current West Africa % change % yield real GDP Central Africa - / in climate change (due cost of Magnitude of suitability (biomass, inaction on Southern Africa projected outcome (area) sucrose) adaptation) North Africa / Very positive >40% >40% >4% Sub-Saharan Africa Benificial Highly positive >20% >20% >2% outcome Sahel + Moderately positive >10% >10% >1% Sugarcane Southern Africa* + + Low positive >5% >5% >0.5% Cotton West Africa (Benin and Cameroon) A - Low negative >5% >5% >0.5% East Africa (Ethiopia) Detrimental Moderately negative >10% >10% >1% 9 North AFrica (Sudan) outcome Highly negative >20% >20% >2% Sub-Saharan Africa + Very negative >40% >40% >4% Oil Palm West Africa (Nigeria) / Tobacco Southern Africa (Zimbabwe) - Cocoa West Africa** Level of confidence Coffee East Africa / High Tea East Africa (Kenya and Uganda) Medium Groundnut Sub-Saharan Africa Low West Africa (Benin) North Africa (Sudan) - / = negligible Bambara nut Southern Africa (empty) = insufficient data Chickpea East Africa (Ethiopia) Olive North Africa (Algeria) A = Late planting can reduce the impact of climate change. Millet West Africa / Sorguhm West Africa - B B= Crop modelling suggests that shifts in sowing date and Southern Africa fertilizer rate can be effective in reducing negative impacts on soghum yield in Southern Africa. North Africa (Sudan) Potato Africa - *Southern Africa (South Africa and Swaziland) East Africa - **West Africa (Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire) Southern Africa West Africa - + Sahel Central Africa - Sunflower Southern Africa (Botswana) North Africa (Morocco) Cowpea West Africa (Benin) Figure 9.23 |  Projected risks at increasing global warming levels for regionally important cash and food crops in Africa. Insufficient data indicates there were limited to no published studies that have quantified projected climate change impacts or adaptation options for specific crops under different warming levels (see Table SM9.6). Global warming levels were calculated using a baseline for pre-industrial global mean temperature of 1850–1900. 9.8.2.3 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks for Wild- et al., 2013; Shumsky et al., 2014; Wunder et al., 2014; Baudron et al., Harvested Food 2019b). In Zimbabwe, during lean times, consumption of wild fruits increases, as does their sale to generate income for additional food Wild-harvested foods (e.g., fruits, vegetables and insects) provide expenses in poor, rural households (Mithöfer and Waibel, 2004). In Mali, dietary diversification and for many people in Africa, wild-harvested Tanzania and Zambia, household surveys indicate that forest products food plants may provide a livelihood and/or nutritional safety net including wild foods can play an important role in reducing household when other sources of food fail, such as during drought (Sunderland vulnerability to climate shocks by providing alternative sources of food 1353 Chapter 9 Africa and income during droughts and floods (Robledo et al., 2012). In the of drinking water, direct heat stress and the prevalence of livestock parklands of west Africa, wild trees are a significant source of wild diseases (Nardone et al., 2010; Rojas-Downing et al., 2017; Godde et al., foods and are thus a place where one might expect wild plant foods 2021). Climate change is projected to negatively affect fodder availability to make an important contribution to diets and nutrition (Boedecker (Briske, 2017) because overall rangeland net primary productivity (NPP) et al., 2014; Leßmeister et al., 2015). Non-timber forest products are by 2050 is projected to decrease 42% under RCP4.5 (2°C global warming) consumed by an estimated 43% of all households in Burkina Faso (FAO, and 46% under RCP8.5 (2.4°C global warming) for western sub-Saharan 2019), and wild vegetables accounted for about 50% of total vegetable Africa, compared to a 2000 baseline (Boone et al., 2018). NPP is also consumption in southeastern Burkina Faso (Mertz et al., 2001). projected to decline by 37% in southern Africa, 32% in north Africa and 5% in both east Africa and central Africa by 2050 under RCP8.5 The focus of projected climate change impacts has been almost (2.4°C global warming) (Boone et al., 2018). For example, in Zimbabwe exclusively on agricultural production, yet climate change could by 2040–2070, net revenues from livestock production, compared to a have substantial impacts on the distribution and availability of wild- 2011 survey, are projected to decline by 8–32% under RCP4.5 for 2°C harvested food plants in Africa (Wessels et al., 2021). Non-cultivated and 11–43% under RCP8.5 for 2.7°C global warming due to a decline in species in Africa are vulnerable to current and future climate changes, fodder availability (Descheemaeker et al., 2018). The available literature 9 with widespread changes in woody plant cover already observed does not comprehensively capture the economic implications of climate- (see Section  9.6.1.1). Evidence about the impacts of climate change related impacts on livestock production across Africa. on individual wild food species is less consistent. Communities in the Kalahari (Crate and Nuttall, 2016) and Zimbabwe (Sango and Godwell, Fodder quality, critical for animal health and weight gain, is at risk 2015) report growing scarcity of wild foods (such as wild meat and fruit) from climate change as increases in temperature, elevated CO2 and perceived to be, at least in part, due to drought and climate change. water stress have been shown to reduce dry matter digestibility and Shea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa) nuts provide fats and oils for the diets of nitrogen content for C3 grasses (Augustine et  al., 2018), tropical C4 many rural populations in west Africa. In Burkina Faso, global warming grasses (Habermann et al., 2019) and fodder crops such as Lucerne/ of 3°C is projected to reduce area of suitable habitat for the shea tree Alfalfa (Polley et al., 2013; Thivierge et al., 2016). by 14% (Dimobe et al., 2020). In southern Africa, 40% of native, wild- harvested food plant species are projected to decrease in geographic Climate change is projected to threaten water availability for range extent at 1.7°C global warming with range reductions for 66% of livestock. Droughts in Africa have become more intense, frequent and species projected for 3.5°C (Wessels et al., 2021). widespread in the last 50 years (Masih et al., 2014), and progressive increase in droughts between 3- and 20-fold under climate change 9.8.2.4 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks on Livestock up to 3°C of warming are projected for most of Africa (Section 9.5). In the Klela basin in Mali by 2050, groundwater recharge is projected Livestock systems in Africa are already being affected by changes in climate to decline by 49% and groundwater storage by 24% under RCP8.5 through increased precipitation variability leading to decreasing fodder (2.4°C global warming) compared to the 2006 baseline (Toure et al., availability (Sloat et al., 2018; Stanimirova et al., 2019). More than twice 2017). Water availability for livestock during drought is a major as many countries in Africa have experienced increases in precipitation concern for many African pastoralists including but not limited to those variability in the last century than decreases (Sloat et al., 2018). Fodder in Zimbabwe (Dzavo et al., 2019) and Nigeria (Ayanlade and Ojebisi, availability is also being impacted by woody plant encroachment— 2019). Increased livestock mortality and livestock price shocks have the increase in shrub and tree cover—which has increased by 10% been associated with droughts in Africa, as well as being a potential on subsistence grazing lands and 20% on economically important pathway for climate-related conflict (Catley et al., 2014; see Box 9.9; grazing lands in south Africa in the last 60 years (Stevens et al., 2016), Maystadt and Ecker, 2014). and is driven in part by climatic factors (see Section 9.6.1.1). Increased temperature and precipitation have contributed to the expanding range, Heat stress may already be the largest factor impacting livestock especially in east and southern Africa, of several ixodid tick species which production in many regions in Africa (El-Tarabany et al., 2017; Pragna carry economically important livestock diseases (Nyangiwe et al., 2018). et al., 2018), as the combination of high temperatures and high relative humidity can be dangerous for livestock and has already decreased Pastoralists in Africa perceive the climate as already changing and dairy production in Tunisia (Amamou et al., 2018). Climate change is report more erratic and reduced rainfall, prolonged and more frequent projected to increase heat stress for all types of livestock, especially in droughts and a rise in temperature (Sanogo et al., 2017; Kimaro et al., the tropics (Figure 9.24; Lallo et al., 2018). More studies quantifying 2018). They also report reduced milk production, increased deaths and the impact of heat stress on other types of livestock production loss disease outbreaks in their herds due to malnutrition and starvation are needed in Africa (Rahimi et al., 2021). resulting from the shortages in forage and water (Kimaro et al., 2018). Additional research is required to attribute precipitation variability to Climate change will impact livestock disease prevalence primarily human-induced climate change (see Section 9.5), and to evaluate the through changes in vector dynamics or range (Abdela and Jilo, relative contributions of climate change and management to disease 2016; Semenza and Suk, 2018). African Rift Valley Fever (RVF) and vector extent. trypanosomiasis are positively associated with extreme climate events (droughts and ENSO) (Bett et al., 2017) and are projected to expand in Future climate change will have compounding impacts on livestock, range under climate change (Kimaro et al., 2017; Mweya et al., 2017). including negative impacts on fodder availability and quality, availability More quantitative estimates of projected risk from diseases are needed. 1354 Africa Chapter 9 Severe heat stress duration for cattle in Africa is projected to increase with increased global warming (a) Historical risk (1985–2014) (b) Historical exposure (1985–2014) Annual number of days over threshold More 9 300 cattle 240 180 More severe heat 120 60 0 (c) Global warming 1.5°C (d) Global warming 3.75°C Increase in annual number of days over threshold 300 240 180 120 60 0 Figure 9.24 |  Severe heat stress duration for cattle in Africa is projected to increase with increasing global warming. (a) Number of days per year with severe heat stress in the historical climate (1985–2014). (b) Historical cattle exposure to severe heat. Cattle density data from Gilbert et al. (2018). (c, d) Projected increase in the number of days per year with severe heat stress for a global warming level of 1.5°C and 3.75°C. Severe heat stress for cattle is projected to become much more extensive in the future in Africa at increased global warming levels. Strong mitigation would substantially limit the spatial extent and the duration of cattle heat stress across Africa. Heat stress is estimated using the Temperature Humidity Index with a value greater than 79 considered the onset of severe heat stress (Livestock Weather Safety Index) (Lallo et al., 2018). Global warming of 1.5°C used scenario SSP1–2.6 and global warming of 3.75°C used SSP5-8.5, both for 2070–2099 (12 climate models from O’Neill et al., 2016; Tebaldi et al., 2021). Global warming levels were calculated using a baseline for pre-industrial global mean temperature of 1850–1900. 1355 Chapter 9 Africa 9.8.3 Adapting to Climate Variability and Change in regions of west Africa, small-scale irrigation, including the digging Agriculture of ditches, holes and depressions to collect rainwater (Makondo and Thomas, 2018), is widely adopted and promoted to support national Agricultural and livelihood diversification are strategies used by food security (Dowd-Uribe et al., 2018). African households to cope with climate change, enabling them to spread risks and adjust to shifting climate conditions (Thierfelder et al., African farmers are also diversifying their income sources to offset 2017; Thornton et al., 2018). This includes adjusting cropping choices, reduced yields or crop losses by shifting labour resources to off-farm work, planting times, or size, type and location of planted areas (Altieri et al., or by migrating seasonally or longer term (Kangalawe et al., 2017; Hove 2015; Nyagumbo et  al., 2017; Dayamba et  al., 2018). In southern and Gweme, 2018). Off-farm activities provide financial resources that Africa, changes in planting dates provide farmers with greater yield rural households need to cope with extreme climate variability (Hamed stability in uncertain climate conditions (Nyagumbo et  al., 2017). et al., 2018; Rouabhi et al., 2019). However, in some cases, these off-farm In Ghana, farmers are changing planting schedules and using early activities can be maladaptive at larger scales, such as when households maturing varieties to cope with late-onset and early cessation of the turn to charcoal production, which contributes to deforestation (Egeru, rainy season (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2014; Bawakyillenuo et al., 2016). 2016). Whether off-farm activities constitute maladaptation depends on 9 whether resources are available to upgrade skills or support investments The use of drought-tolerant crop varieties is another adaptation that make a new business more lucrative. Without such resources, this available to African farmers (Hove and Gweme, 2018; Choko et  al., option may lead to impoverishment (see Box 5.8). 2019). Adoption, however, is hindered by lack of information and training, availability or affordability of seed, inadequate labelling and Smallholder farmers’ responses tend to address short-term shocks packaging size for seed supplies and financial constraints (Fisher et al., or stresses by deploying coping responses (e.g., selling labour, 2015). Moreover, drought-tolerant varieties do not address changing reducing consumption and temporary migration), rather than longer- temperature regimes (Guan et al., 2017). term sustainable adaptations (Ziervogel and Parnell, 2014; Jiri et al., 2017). This is partly due to institutional barriers (e.g., markets, credit, Crop diversification enhances crop productivity and resilience and infrastructure and information) and resource requirements that are reduces vulnerability in smallholder farming systems (McCord et  al., unaffordable to smallholder farmers (Pauline et al., 2017). There is a 2015; Mulwa and Visser, 2020). In Tanzania, diversified crop portfolios need for policies that strengthen natural, financial, human and social are associated with greater food security and dietary quality (Brüssow capitals, the latter being key to household and community resilience, et al., 2017). In Kenya, levels of crop diversity are higher in villages especially where government services may be limited (Mutabazi et al., affected by frequent droughts, which are the main cause of crop failure 2015; Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017). There is evidence that collective (Bozzola and Smale, 2020). Crop diversification also helps control action, local organisations and climate information are associated with pest outbreaks, which may become more frequent and severe under higher food security, and that institutional interventions are needed to increased climate variability and extreme events (Schroth and Ruf, ensure scaling up of adaptations (Thornton et al., 2018). 2014). High farming diversity enables households to better meet food needs, but only up to a certain level of diversity (Waha et al., 2018), A range of options is considered potentially effective in reducing future and the viability of and benefits from mixed farming are highly context climate change risk, including plant breeding, crop diversification dependent (Thornton and Herrero, 2015; Weindl et al., 2015). alongside livestock, mixed planting, intercrops, crop rotation and integrated crop–livestock systems (see Chapter 5 Sections 5.4.4; 5.14.1; Agroecological and conservation agriculture practices, such as Thornton and Herrero, 2014; Cunningham et al., 2015; Himanen et al., intercropping, integration of legumes, mulching and incorporation of 2016; Farrell et al., 2018; Snowdon et al., 2021). However, adaptation crop residues, are associated with household food security and improved limits for crops in Africa are increasingly reached for global warming health status (Nyantakyi-Frimpong et al., 2017; Shikuku et al., 2017). above 2°C (high confidence), and in tropical Africa may already be These practices can enhance the benefits of other adaptations, such as reached at current levels of global warming (low confidence). planting drought- and heat-tolerant or improved varieties, although effects vary across soil types, geographical zones and social groups Global warming beyond 2°C will place nearly all of sub-Saharan (Makate et al., 2019; Mutenje et al., 2019). Non-climatic variables, such Africa cropland substantially outside of its historical safe climate as financial resources, access to information and technology, level of zone (Kummu et al., 2021) and may exponentially increase the cost of education, land security and gender dynamics affect feasibility and adaptation and residual damage for major crops (Iizumi et al., 2020). adoption (Makate et al., 2019; Mutenje et al., 2019). Without accounting for CO2 increases, global-scale studies employing ensembles of gridded crop models for 2°C of global warming find To mitigate growing water stress, countries like Ethiopia, Rwanda, that for adaptation using genetic cultivar change in most of Africa net Tanzania and Uganda are striving to improve irrigation efficiency losses are projected, even with adaptation up to 2°C of global warming (McCarl et al., 2015; Connolly-Boutin and Smit, 2016; Herrero et al., for rice, maize, soybean and wheat (Minoli et  al., 2019; Zabel et  al., 2016). The feasibility and effectiveness of this adaptation depend 2021), although model uncertainty is still high (Müller et al., 2021). In on biophysical and socioeconomic conditions (Amamou et  al., contrast, when accounting for CO2 increases, applying new genetics for 2018; Harmanny and Malek, 2019; Schilling et  al., 2020). Irrigation rice under warming is projected to fully counteract all climate change- is unaffordable for many smallholder farmers and only covers a induced losses in Africa up to 3.5°C of global warming, except in west negligible proportion of the total cultivated area. Nonetheless, in some Africa (van Oort and Zwart, 2018). 1356 Africa Chapter 9 However, compared to temperate regions, risks of adaptation shortfalls— Advances in remote sensing and climate analysis tools have allowed that is climate change impacts even after adaptation—are generally the development of weather index insurance products as a potential greater for current agricultural conditions across much of Africa (tropical, adaptation option, with Malawi and Ethiopia being early testbeds arid and semi-arid) (Sun et al., 2019). The overall adaptation potential (Tadesse et al., 2015, Section 9.11.4). These pilot projects were initially to offset yield losses across Africa for rice, maize and wheat reduces sponsored by NGOs, but in the last decade, the private sector has with increasing global warming. On average, in projections including become more active in this sector. The Ghana Agricultural Insurance adaptation options, yield losses, in the median case, are reduced from Pool and Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise (ACRE) in Kenya, −33% to −10% of 2005 levels at 2°C of global warming and from −46% Tanzania and Rwanda are examples. Despite the potential for weather to −23% at 4°C, but estimates vary widely (Figure 9.22; Hasegawa et al., index insurance, uptake by smallholder farmers in Africa remains 2021). Across Africa, the risks of no available genetic varieties of maize constrained by several factors. These include the failure to capture for growing season adaptation are higher for east Africa and southern actual crop loss as in traditional crop insurance products, as well Africa than for central or west Africa (Zabel et al., 2021). To keep pace as the inability of poor farmers to pay premiums (Elum et al., 2017; with expected rates of climate change, crop breeding, development Weber, 2019). Weather index insurance could be part of a wider and adoption must accelerate to meet the challenge (Challinor et  al., portfolio of risk mitigation services offered to farmers (Tadesse et al., 2016). Regional modelling has shown very little efficacy for late sowing, 2015; Weber, 2019). Strategic partnerships between key players (e.g., 9 intensification of seeding density and fertilizers, water harvesting and credit institutions, policymakers, meteorologists, farmer associations, other measures for cereals in west Africa at 2°C of global warming extension services, NGOs) are needed to develop better products and (Sultan and Gaetani, 2016; Guan et al., 2017). Historical climate change build capacity among smallholder farmers to engage more beneficially adaptation by crop migration has been shown in some cases (Sloat et al., with weather index insurance (Singh et al., 2018; Tesfaye et al., 2019). 2020) but poses risks to biodiversity and water resources, and this option may be limited for maize in Africa by suitable climate shifting completely across national borders and available land at the edges of the continent 9.8.5 Marine and Inland Fisheries (Franke et al., 2021). More research is required to evaluate the potential effectiveness and limits of adaptation options in African agriculture under 9.8.5.1 Observed Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on future climate change (see Chapter 5 Section 5.4.4 for more details). Marine and Inland Fisheries Marine and freshwater fisheries provide 19.3% of animal protein intake 9.8.4 Climate Information Services and Insurance for (Chan et al., 2019) and support the livelihoods of 12.3 million people Agriculture Adaptation (de Graaf and Garibaldi, 2015) across Africa. Estimates suggest that fish provides approximately 200 million people in Africa with their main In addition to adaptation in crop, soil and water management, the source of animal protein and key micronutrients (Obiero et al., 2019). combination of (a) Climate Information Services, (b) institutional Although marine fisheries account for >50% of total capture fishery capacity building and (c) strategic financial investment can help production (Obiero et al., 2019), 2.9 million tonnes of fish are harvested African food producers adapt to projected climate risks (Carter et al., annually from inland water bodies constituting the highest per capita 2015; Surminski et  al., 2016; Scott et  al., 2017; Cinner et  al., 2018; inland fishery production of any continent (2.56 kg per person per year) Diouf et  al., 2019; Hansen et  al., 2019a). There is growing evidence (Harrod et al., 2018a; Funge-Smith and Bennett, 2019). of farmers’ use of weather and climate information, especially at the short- and medium-time horizon (Carr et al., 2016; Singh et al., 2018). Climate change already poses a significant threat to marine and Digital services can contribute to the sustainable intensification of food freshwater fisheries and aquaculture in Africa (Blasiak et  al., 2017; production globally (Duncombe, 2018; Klerkx et al., 2019). This points Harrod et  al., 2018a). Severe (>30%) coral bleaching has impacted to the need for the scientific and development communities to better ~80% of major reef areas in the western Indian Ocean and Red Sea understand the conditions that enable widespread adoption in Africa. along Africa’s eastern coast (Hughes et  al., 2018). Biological effects (e.g., changes in primary production, fish distribution) have also Although climate information services have the potential to strengthen occurred (Hidalgo et  al., 2018). Range shifts in marine fish species farmers’ resilience, barriers to accessibility, affordability and utilisation can exacerbate boundary conflicts among fisher communities (Penney remain (Krell et  al., 2021). Often the information offered is not et  al., 2017; Belhabib et  al., 2019). Changes in fish distribution and consistent with what farmers need to know and how they access reductions in catch across inland fisheries are associated with climatic and process information (Meadow et  al., 2015; Singh et  al., 2018). variability by fishing communities (Okpara et al., 2017b; Lowe et al., Production of salient and credible climate information is hindered 2019; Muringai et al., 2019b). Floods and reduced river flow reduces by the limited availability of and access to weather and climate data fish catches (Kolding et al., 2019), which scale positively with discharge (Coulibaly et  al., 2017; Hansen et  al., 2019a). The existing weather rates in rivers across Africa (McIntyre et al., 2016). Warming air and infrastructure remains suboptimal to enable the development of water temperatures have altered water stratification patterns in African reliable early warning systems (Africa Adaptation Initiative, 2018; Krell lakes causing reductions in or redistributions of primary productivity et  al., 2021). Of the 1017 land-based observational networks in the and leading to reduced fish biomass (Section 9.6.1.3). Such changes, world, only 10% are in Africa, and 54% of Africa’s surface weather partially explain reduced fish catches in Lake Tanganyika (Cohen et al., stations cannot capture data accurately (Africa Adaptation Initiative, 2016). In some regions, water scarcity has resulted in conflict within 2018; World Bank, 2020d). and among food production sectors (pastoralists, fishers and farmers) 1357 Chapter 9 Africa in this region (Okpara et al., 2017b). Small-scale and artisanal fisher A and 285 million to vitamin B12 and omega-3 fatty acids by mid-century communities are ill-equipped to adapt to climate impacts because under 1.7°C global warming (Golden et al., 2016). Maire et al. (2021) there are few financially accessible alternative livelihoods (Belhabib assessed the nutritional vulnerabilities of African countries to climate et al., 2016; Ndhlovu and Saito, 2017). change and overfishing, and found that the four most vulnerable countries ranked on a scale from 0 (low vulnerability) to 100 (high vulnerability) 9.8.5.2 Projected Risks of Climate Change to Fisheries were Mozambique (87), Madagascar (76), Tanzania (61) and Sierra Leone (58). Coral reef habitat in east Africa is projected to decrease, resulting At 4.3°C global warming, maximum catch potential (MCP) from marine in negative impacts on demersal fish stocks and invertebrates (Hoegh- fisheries in African Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) would decrease by Guldberg et al., 2018). Central, west and east Africa are projected to be at 12–69% by the end of the 21st century relative to recent decades (1986– the greatest nutritional risk from sea temperature rise, leading to reduced 2005), whereas global warming of 1.6°C would limit the MCP decrease to catch in coastal waters (Figure 9.25; Golden et al., 2016). In north Africa, 3–41% (Cheung William et al., 2016; IPCC, 2019c). By mid-century under a rise in water temperatures is expected to impact the phenology and 2°C global warming, MCP would decrease by 10 to >30% on the western migratory patterns of large pelagic species (e.g., bluefin tuna, Thunnus coast of South Africa, the Horn of Africa and west Africa, indicating these thynnus) (Hidalgo et  al., 2018). Increased sea surface temperatures 9 regions could be at risk to declines in MCP earlier in the century than have been associated with increases in spring and summer upwelling other parts of Africa (Cheung et al., 2016). Declining fish harvests due to intensity reducing the abundance and larval survival of small pelagic sea temperature rise could leave 1.2–70 (median 11.1) million people in fishes and shellfish in west Africa (Bakun et al., 2015; Tiedemann et al., Africa vulnerable to deficiencies in iron, and up to 188 million to vitamin 2017; Atindana et al., 2020). Ocean warming, acidification and hypoxia Climate change risk to marine fisheries in Africa (b) (d) Global warming (a) 1.6°C Present (c) (e) Global warming >4°C 60–70% >23% 51–60% 18–23% 41–50% 7–17% 28–40% 3–7% 13–27% <3% > 13% No data No data Countries with Dependence on Projected decrease in high overlap of marine foods maximum catch potential (MCP) dependence and future threat for nutrition of marine fisheries to fisheries from climate change Figure 9.25 |  Climate change increases risks to the catch potential and nutrition from marine fisheries. (a) The percentage of animal source foods consumed that originate from a marine environment. Countries with higher dependence are indicated by darker shades of green (Golden et al., 2016). (b–c) Projected percentage change in maximum catch potential of marine fisheries compared to the recent past (1986–2005) under 1.6°C global warming and >4°C global warming by end of 21st century (2081–2100) in countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) (Cheung William et al., 2016). Darker red indicates greater percentage reduction (negative values). (d–e) Countries (in purple) that have overlap between high nutritional dependence on marine fisheries and high risk of reduction in maximum catch potential under the two global warming scenarios. Global warming levels were calculated using a baseline for pre-industrial global mean temperature of 1850–1900. 1358 Africa Chapter 9 are predicted to affect the early life history stages of several marine other regions with 2.7°C–3.3°C increase by end of century) based on a food species, including fish and crustaceans (Kifani et al., 2018). Climate 3.9°C global warming scenario (Harrod et al., 2018b). In regions where warming is projected to impact water temperature and horizontal and inland fishery production is derived primarily from lakes, there is a lower vertical mixing on the southern Benguela ecosystem, with marked likelihood of reduced catch, especially where precipitation is projected negative effects on the biomass of several important fishery resources by to increase (e.g., African Great Lakes region) (Harrod et  al., 2018b). 2050 amplified under 2.5°C compared to 1.7°C global warming (Ortega- Regions reliant on rivers and floodplains (e.g., Zambezi and Niger Cisneros et al., 2018). basins) are more likely to experience downturns in catch, as hydrological dynamics may be altered (Harrod et al., 2018b). Projections suggest that For inland fisheries, 55–68% of commercially harvested fish species will opportunistic species that do well in modified systems (Escalera-vázquez be vulnerable to extinction under 2.5°C global warming by the end of et al., 2017) and small pelagic fishes will remain important components the 21st century (2071–2100) compared to 77–97% under 4.4°C global of inland fishery food systems (Kolding et al., 2016; Gownaris et al., 2018; warming (Figure 9.26). This will increase the number of countries that 2019). Climate adaptation responses that rely on freshwater resources are at food security risk due to fishery species declines from 10 to 13 (e.g., hydroelectric power generation, agricultural irrigation) represent (Figure 9.26). Other recent analyses suggest that African countries with threats to inland fisheries (Cowx et al., 2018; Harrod et al., 2018c), by the highest inland fisheries production have low- to mid-range projected changing flow regimes, reducing water levels, and increasing runoff of 9 climate risk (2.4°C–2.6°C local temperature increase compared to pesticides and nutrients (Harrod et al., 2018c). Climate change risk to freshwater fisheries in Africa (a) (b) (d) Present Global warming 2.4°C (c) (e) Global warming >4°C >1.05 (High) >11.2 0.57–1.05 7.8–11.2 0.26–0.55 3.3–7.8 0.05–0.21 0.3–3.2 <0.04 (Low) <0.3 No data No data Countries with Index of current Average number of high overlap of dependence on climate-change vulnerable, dependence and future threat inland fisheries commercially harvested, freshwater fishes species to fisheries from climate change Figure 9.26 |  Climate change risk to freshwater fisheries. (a) Countries’ dependence on inland fisheries for nutrition; darker green shows higher dependence on inland fisheries. (b–c) Projected numbers of freshwater fishery species vulnerable to climate change within freshwater ecoregions under >2°C global warming and >4°C global warming estimated by the end of the 21st century (2071 to 2100). Numbers of vulnerable fish species translate to an average of 55–68% vulnerable at >2°C and 77–97% vulnerable at >4°C global warming. Darker reds indicate higher concentrations of vulnerable fish species. (d–e) Countries (in purple) that have an overlap between high dependence on freshwater fish and high concentrations of fishery species that are vulnerable to climate change under two warming scenarios. Countries’ dependence on inland fisheries for nutrition was estimated by catch (total, tonnes) (FAO, 2018b; Fluet-Chouinard et al., 2018), per capita catch (kg per person per year) (FAO, 2018b), percentage reliance on fish for micronutrients, and percentage consumption per household (Golden et al., 2016). Z-scores of each metric were averaged for each country to create a composite index describing ‘current dependence on freshwater fish’ for each country with darker blue colours indicating higher dependence. Data on vulnerable fish species was from (Nyboer et al., 2019). 1359 Chapter 9 Africa For both marine and freshwater fisheries, climate-related extreme 2016). Much of the rapid rate of urbanisation has resulted from the weather events and flooding may drive the loss of fishing days, cause growth of small towns and intermediary cities (African Development damage and loss to fishing gear, endanger the lives of fishers and Bank et al., 2016). block transportation from damaged roads (Muringai et al., 2021). Fish processing via weather-dependent techniques such as sun drying may Approximately 59% of sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population resides be hampered, causing post-harvest losses (Akintola and Fakoya, 2017; in informal settlements (in some cities up to 80%), and the population Chan et al., 2019). in informal settlements is expected to increase (very high confidence) (Taylor and Peter, 2014; UN-Habitat, 2014; 2016; UNDP, 2019). These 9.8.5.3 Current and Future Adaptation Responses for Fisheries urbanisation trends are compounding increasing exposure to climate hazards, particularly floods and heatwaves (high confidence) (Dodman Patterns of vulnerability and adaptive capacity are highly context et al., 2015). dependent and vary within and among fishing communities in coastal and riparian areas (Ndhlovu and Saito, 2017; Lowe et  al., Globally, the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation are 2019; D’agata et  al., 2020). Interventions that integrate scientific taking place in Africa’s coastal zones (high confidence) (Merkens et al., 9 knowledge and fishers’ local knowledge while focusing on vulnerable 2016). Coastal urban populations account for 25–29% of the total groups are expected to be more successful (Musinguzi et al., 2018; population in west, north and southern Africa (OECD/SWAC, 2020). Muringai et  al., 2019b). Infrastructure improvements (e.g., storage Accounting for a continuing young population, stagnant economies facilities, processing technologies, transport systems) could reduce and migration to regional growth centres, projections indicate that the post-harvest losses and improve food safety (Chan et al., 2019). Fisher low-lying coastal zone population of Africa could increase to over 100 safety can be aided by early warning of severe weather conditions million people by 2030 and over 200 million people by 2060 relative to (Thiery et  al., 2017), enhanced through communication via mass 54 million in 2000 (Neumann et al., 2015; see Figure 9.28). media and mobile phones (Thiery et al., 2017; Kiwanuka-Tondo et al., 2019). Although changing fishing gears and shifting target species Climate-related displacement is widespread in Africa, with increased are important adaptation options for artisanal fishers, many have migration to urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa linked to decreased instead expanded their fishing range or increased effort (Musinguzi rainfall in rural areas, increasing urbanisation and affecting household et al., 2015; Belhabib et al., 2016). Adapting to the impacts of climate vulnerability (see Box 9.9). Much of this growth can occur in informal change on marine fisheries productivity requires management settlements which are growing due to both climatic and non-climatic reforms accounting for shifting productivity and species distributions, drivers, and which often house temporary migrants, including internally such as increasing marine protected areas, strengthening regional displaced people. Such informal settlements are located in areas trade networks, and increasing the investment and innovation in exposed to climate change and variability and are exposed to floods, climate-resilient aquaculture production (Golden et  al., 2021). This landslides, sea level rise and storm surges in low-lying coastal areas, could yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today or alongside rivers that frequently overflow, thereby exacerbating in 50% of African countries with marine territories under 2°C global existing vulnerabilities (Satterthwaite et al., 2020). warming and in 35% under 4.3°C global warming (Free et al., 2020). For inland fisheries, opportunities for adaptation include better Sub-Saharan Africa’s large infrastructure deficit (quantity, quality and integration of inland fisheries into management plans from other access) with respect to road transport, electricity, water supply and sectors (e.g., hydropower and irrigation) (Harrod et al., 2018c; Cowx sanitation places the region at the lowest of all developing regions and Ogutu-Ohwayo, 2019; McCartney et al., 2019). There is growing (AfDB, 2018a; Calderon et  al., 2018). Adequate infrastructure to interest in enhancing the supply of freshwater fishery production support Africa’s rapidly growing population is important to raise living from small water bodies and reservoirs in dryland regions of sub- standards and productivity in informal settlements (AfDB, 2018b; Saharan Africa (Kolding et al., 2016). UN Environment, 2019). Yet planned infrastructure developments, including those related to the AU’s PIDA, along with other energy plans, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, may increase or decrease 9.9 Human Settlements and Infrastructure both climate change mitigation and adaptation depending on whether infrastructure planning integrates current and future climate change This section assesses climate impacts, risks and adaptation options for risks (Cervigni et al., 2015; Addaney, 2020; see Box 9.5). human settlements comprising human populations and infrastructure such as buildings, roads and energy across Africa. 9.9.2 Observed Impacts on Human Settlements and Infrastructure 9.9.1 Urbanisation, Population and Development Trends African human settlements are particularly exposed to floods (pluvial Africa is the most rapidly urbanising region in the world, with an and fluvial), droughts and heat waves. Other climate hazards are annual urban population growth rate of 3.6% for 2005–2015 (UN- sea level rise and storm surges in coastal areas, tropical cyclones Habitat, 2016). About 57% of the population currently lives in rural and convective storms. This sub-section provides an assessment of areas, but the proportion of the population living in urban areas is observed impacts and risks from climate hazards in different sub- projected to exceed 60% by 2050 (UNDESA, 2019b) (UN-Habitat, regions to underscore the relevance of climate-sensitive planning and 1360 Africa Chapter 9 Total people affected by climate hazards across Africa, 2010–2020 (a) Climate hazards between 2010–2020 (c) Total people affected (d) Total people affected by convective storms by floods Total Total people people affected affected Climate hazards 35,001–120,000 1,000,001–7,100,000 Floods 15,001–35,000 450,001–1,000,000 Tropical cyclones 5,001–15,000 150,001–450,000 9 Heat wave 1,501–5,000 50,001–150,000 Convective storm 12–1,500 14–50,000 Droughts (e) Total deaths from (f) Total deaths tropical cyclones from heat waves (b) Total people affected by droughts Total people Total Total affected deaths deaths 5,000,001–10,200,000 251–700 51–150 3,500,001–5,000,000 101–250 16–50 2,000,001–3,500,000 51–100 11–15 1,000,001–2,000,000 21–50 12,000–1,000,000 2–20 Figure 9.27 |  From 2010–2020, over 166 million people were reported to be affected by climate hazards across Africa. Maps show (a) location of all reported climate hazards; (b) people affected by droughts; (c) people affected by convective storms; (d) people affected by floods, (e) total deaths from tropical cyclones, and (f) total deaths from heat waves. Source: EMDAT and CRED (2020). Note: Although extreme weather damage databases under-report heatwaves (which is indicated in panel (f) by very few deaths), the region has experienced a number of heatwaves and will be affected disproportionately by them in the future under climate change (Harrington and Otto, 2020). actions to advance social and economic development, and reduce the major hazard across Africa (Kundzewicz et al., 2014; Douglas, 2017) loss and damage of property, assets and critical infrastructure. and is increasing (Zevenbergen et al., 2016; Elboshy et al., 2019). An increase in extreme poverty and up to a 35% decrease in consumption 9.9.2.1 Observed Impacts on Human Settlements has been associated with exposure to flood shocks (Azzarri and Signorelli, 2020). Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region globally that did The spatial distribution of climate hazards and observed impacts in not show decreasing rates of flood mortality since the 1990s (Tanoue terms of total people affected (displaced persons and deaths) during et  al., 2016). Economic opportunities, transportation of goods and 2010–2020 is shown in Figure  9.27. From 2000–2019, floods and services, and mobility and access to essential services, including health droughts accounted for 80% and 16%, respectively, of the 337 million and education, are greatly hindered by flooding (Gannon et al., 2018). affected persons, and a further 32% and 46%, respectively, of 46,078 Severe impacts from tropical cyclone landfalls have been recorded in deaths from natural disasters in Africa (CRED, 2019). Flooding is a east and southeastern Africa (Rapolaki and Reason, 2018; Cambaza 1361 Chapter 9 Africa Table 9.7 |  Case studies of climate hazard impacts and risks to selected human settlements in Africa Hazard Country/City Impact on Human Settlement and Infrastructure Source December 2010, January 2011 and October 2015: Storm surge of 1.2 m.a.s. l. (metres above sea level) (typical of the Nile Delta coast: 0.4–0.5 m). Coastal flooding and damage to some coastal structures. Kloos and Baumert (2015); Sea level rise and Egypt Moderate flooding of the Nile Delta lowlands. Abutaleb et al. (2018) storm surge (North Africa) Alexandria city: Flooding generated by heavy rainfall (2015). Increased turbidity of water sources affected Eldeberky Y (2015); Yehia et al. efficiency of water treatment plants leading to reduction of water supplies affecting public health systems. (2017) Potable water supply affected by saltwater intrusion. Coastal erosion and property damage. El Niño drought, 2015–2016: Western Cape Region affected 8.6 million people. Losses: Davis-Reddy et al. (2017); >USD 2.2 billion. Power generation reduced by 75% at Kariba dam (Zambia) in 2016, and the Cahora Southern Africa Spalding-Fecher et al. (2017) Bassa dam (Mozambique) reduced to 34% of its capacity with widespread impact on electricity supplies Brooks (2019) across southern Africa. Drought Somalia drought, 2016–2017: 926,000 newly displaced people reported (November 2016–October 2017). Around 40% of total drought-related displacements accommodated in Mogadishu, Baidoa, Somalia Kismayo; 60% hosted in other secondary cities. Increased population density and overcrowding in Government of Somalia (2018) (East Africa) 9 Somalia’s urban areas. Explosion of new shelters and tents for displaced persons within and in outskirts of cities. In Mogadishu, 34% of new settlements developed within 6 months. Floods, 2019: Approximately 975,600 people affected, 672 injured, 60 persons killed and 86,976 people displaced. 288,371 houses damaged. 129 bridges and 68 culverts destroyed. Around 1841 km of road Malawi network estimated at USD 36.1 million destroyed. Total cost of damage and losses: housing sector, USD Government of Malawi (2019) Flooding (East Africa) 106.9 million; energy, USD 3.1 million; water and sanitation, USD 6.4 million; transport, USD 37.0 million. Total cost of destroyed physical assets, USD 157.7 million. Damage and losses in Blantyre city: housing sector, USD 29.87 million; energy sector, USD 0.38 million; transport sector, USD 1.72 million. Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, 2019: Severe flooding of districts in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi; 233,900 houses completely destroyed or damaged in Mozambique. Cyclone Kenneth: about 40,000 houses and 19 health facilities destroyed. Cyclone Idai: destroyed or damaged 1345 km of transmission lines, 10,216 km of distribution lines, two (Cambaza et al., 2019; Mozambique, 90 MW generation plants, 30 sub-stations and 4000 transformers, resulting in estimated damage of Chatiza, 2019; Government of Zimbabwe and USD 133.5 million and loss of USD 47.9 million in the energy sector in Mozambique. 602 and 299 people Mozambique, 2019; Hope, 2019; Tropical cyclone Malawi (southern killed in Mozambique and Zimbabwe, respectively; about 1.5 million people affected in Mozambique and Lequechane et al., 2020; Phiri Africa) 270,000 in Zimbabwe. et al., 2021) In Beira (Mozambique), 60% of city was inundated, 70% of houses damaged or totally destroyed, mostly (Enenkel et al., 2020) in the poorest neighbourhood, and 90% of the city’s power grid affected. Huge losses and damages to infrastructures in the energy, transport, water supply, communication services, housing, health and education sectors were also recorded. August, 2017: At least 500 people killed and over 600 people declared missing, >3000 residents Freetown (Cui et al., 2019) rendered homeless; 349 houses destroyed. Damage to health facilities and educational buildings. (West Africa) (World Bank, 2017b) Landslide Economic cost of landslide and flood, USD 31.6 million. Uganda Slopes of Mt Elgon, 2010: More than 350 deaths and 500,000 people needed to be relocated. (Croitoru et al., 2019) (East Africa) et  al., 2019; Chatiza, 2019; Hope, 2019). Cyclones Idai and Kenneth from flood losses during the period 2000–2015 (UNEP-FI, 2019b; in early 2019 caused flooding of districts in Malawi, Mozambique and Simpson, 2020). Zimbabwe, with substantial loss and damage to infrastructure in the energy, transport, water supply, communication services, housing, Business disruptions from climate impacts have implications for health and education sectors, particularly in Mozambique (Figure 9.27; deepening poverty (Adelekan and Fregene, 2015). Small and medium see also Cross-Chapter Box  DISASTER in Chapter 4; Warren, 2019; enterprises (SMEs) employ 60–90% of workers in many African Dube et al., 2021; Phiri et al., 2021). countries and contribute 40% or more to the GDP in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe (Muriithi, 2017). The From 2005–2020, flood-induced damage over Africa was estimated at viability of businesses and economic well-being of large populations over USD 4.4 billion, with eastern and western Africa being the most employed in SMEs is severely affected by climate hazards as reported for affected regions (EMDAT and CRED, 2020). Total damages in four west local wind storms in Ibadan (Adelekan, 2012), El Niño-related flooding African countries (Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Togo) in 2017 were (Nairobi), drought-induced water supply disruption (Gaborone) and estimated at USD 850 million for pluvial floods and USD 555 million power outages (Lusaka) (Gannon et  al., 2018). High water demand for fluvial floods (Croitoru et al., 2019). Unprecedented economic loss, due to high rates of urbanisation and population growth, coupled with in terms of goods and properties, estimated by the Nigerian insurance drought, reduce groundwater levels in cities (e.g., Bouake, Harare, industry at USD  200  million resulted from floods in Lagos in 2011 Tripoli, Niamey) and increase saltwater intrusion into groundwater (Adelekan, 2016). In southern Africa, the highest costs were incurred in coastal areas, reducing water availability and water security, 1362 Africa Chapter 9 particularly for poorer populations not connected to municipal water people or 55% of global total) (Rentschler and Salhab, 2020). Poverty networks (Aswad et al., 2019; Claon et al., 2020). is a significant factor of flood-induced displacement in Africa, where even small flood exposure can lead to high numbers being displaced Evidence of the impact of heat waves in urban Africa in the current (Kakinuma et al., 2020). Africa’s large population of urban poor and climate is sparse, due in part to low reporting and monitoring marginalised groups and informal sector workers, further contribute (Engelbrecht et  al., 2015; Harrington and Otto, 2020). Knowledge is to high vulnerability to extreme weather and climate change in many also limited on the interaction of climate change, urban growth and settlements (high confidence) (Adelekan and Fregene, 2015; IPCC, the urban heat island effect in Africa (Chapman et al., 2017). In north 2019a; UNDP, 2019). Africa, the present-day number of high heat stress nights is around 10 times larger in urban than rural areas (Fischer et al., 2012). Other non-climatic stressors which exacerbate vulnerabilities, especially in urban areas, include poor socioeconomic development, weak 9.9.2.2 Observed Impacts to Road and Energy Infrastructure municipal governance, poor resource and institutional capacities, together with multi-dimensional, location-specific inequalities (high The highest transport infrastructure exposures are from floods (Koks confidence) (Dodman et al., 2017; Satterthwaite, 2017). et al., 2019), with potentially severe consequences for food security 9 (Fanzo et  al., 2018), communication and the economy of affected regions (high confidence) (Koks et al., 2019). Eight of the 20 countries 9.9.4 Projected Risks for Human Settlements and with the highest expected annual damages to road and rail assets, Infrastructure relative to the country’s GDP, are located in east, west and central Africa (Koks et al., 2019). Transport impacts compound climate impacts, 9.9.4.1 Projected Risks for Human Settlements such as heat stress and air pollution linked to vehicle emissions in Dar es Salaam (Ndetto and Matzarakis, 2014). The extent of urban areas in Africa exposed to climate hazards will increase considerably and cities will be hotspots of climate risks, which African economies that rely primarily on hydropower for electricity could amplify pre-existing stresses related to poverty, exclusion and generation are particularly sensitive to climate variability (Brooks, governance (high confidence) (IPCC, 2018b). 2019). This sensitivity was already felt during the 2015/16 El Niño, in which Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe all experienced 9.9.4.1.1 Flooding widespread and prolonged load shedding due to low rainfall. The impact was felt throughout the economy and reflected in reduced GDP Continuing current population and GDP growth trends, the extent of growth in Zambia (Conway et al., 2017). urban land exposed to high-frequency flooding is projected to increase around 270% in north Africa, 800% in southern Africa, and 2600% in mid-latitude Africa by 2030 when compared to 2000, without 9.9.3 Observed Vulnerabilities of Human Settlements to considering climate change (Güneralp et al., 2015). In addition, global Climate Risks warming is projected to increase frequency and magnitude of river floods in east, central and west Africa (Alfieri et al., 2017; Gu et al., Urban vulnerabilities and exposure to climate change are increasing 2020; Kam et al., 2021). On average, across large African river basins, (medium to high confidence) and are influenced by patterns of urban the frequency of flood events with a current return period of 100 years settlement and housing characteristics (Satterthwaite, 2017; Godsmark is projected to increase to 1 in 40  years at 1.5°C and 2°C global et al., 2019; Williams et al., 2019a). About 70% of African cities are warming, and 1 in 21 years at 4°C warming, with Egypt, Nigeria, Sudan highly vulnerable to climate shocks of which small- and medium-sized and the Democratic Republic of Congo in the top 20 countries globally towns and cities are more at risk (Verisk Maplecroft, 2018). Flooding for projected damages (Alfieri et al., 2017). Compared to population in was perceived as the most prominent water risk in 75% of 36 sampled 2000, human displacement due to river flooding in sub-Saharan Africa cities across African sub-regions, while drought-related water scarcity is projected to increase 600% by 2066–2096 with moderate-to-high was indicated as very important/important in 66.7% of cities (OECD, population growth and 2.6°C global warming, with risk reducing to a 2021). Almost one-third of African cities with populations of 300,000 200% increase for low population growth and 1.6°C global warming or more are located in areas of high exposure to at least one natural (Kam et al., 2021). hazard, including floods (11%) and droughts (20–25%) using natural hazard data for the period 1970s to early 2000s (Gu et al., 2015). The Urban population exposure to tropical cyclone hazards in southeastern coastal cities of east, west and north Africa are particularly vulnerable Africa, in particular Mozambique, is projected to increase due to the to the effects of rising sea levels (Abutaleb et al., 2018; IPCC, 2019a). intensification of cyclones and their extended duration associated From 2000–2015, the proportion of people exposed to floods increased with warmer sea surface temperatures (Fitchett, 2018; Vidya et  al., for most African countries, with Mozambique and multiple countries in 2020). Urban damage assessment based on a 10-year flood protection West Africa estimated to have had the proportion of their populations level for Accra, Ghana, shows that without flood protection, there is exposed to flooding increase more than 50% (Tellman et al., 2021). a 10% probability of a flood occurring annually which could cause USD 98.5 million urban damage, affect GDP by USD 50.3 million and Globally, sub-Saharan Africa has the largest population living in affect 34,000 people (Asumadu-Sarkodie et  al., 2015). Many urban extreme poverty that are exposed to high flood risk (~71  million 1363 Chapter 9 Africa Current and future population exposed to sea level rise in low elevation coastal zone in Africa (a) Population exposed to sea level rise in low elevation coastal zone (LECZ) Year 2000 Year 2030 (+10 cm sea level rise) Year 2060 (+21 cm sea level rise) Baseline A B C D A B C D Africa 54.2 117.6 108.5 116.8 108.9 229.3 190.0 245.2 185.6 Western Africa 17.1 47.1 45.3 47.2 43.6 111.7 95.0 122.3 88.9 Northern Africa 30.3 52.3 46.6 52.3 48.6 72.4 56.3 74.8 61.4 Eastern Africa 5.2 15.1 13.8 14.1 13.8 39.9 34.8 42.5 31.1 Central Africa 1.1 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.8 3.0 4.1 3.0 Southern Africa 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.1 (b) African countries in the global top 25 with highest populations within LECZ and in the 100-year floodplains, under growth scenario C 9 Populations within LECZ Populations within 100-year floodplains Baseline Year Year Growth Baseline Year Year Growth 2000 2030 2060 2000–2060 2000 2030 2060 2000–2060 Egypt 25.5 45.0 63.5 0.25 7.4 13.8 20.7 0.28 Nigeria 7.4 19.8 57.7 0.79 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.84 Senegal 2.9 8.5 19.2 0.66 0.4 1.1 2.7 0.76 Benin 1.4 5.4 15.0 1.06 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.12 Tanzania 0.6 2.8 14.0 2.2 0.2 0.9 4.3 2.3 Somalia 0.6 2.2 9.8 1.68 0.2 0.6 2.7 1.7 Cote d'Ivoire 1.2 3.0 7.6 0.64 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.65 Mozambique 2.3 4.4 7.5 0.33 0.7 1.4 2.5 0.36 Population exposed to sea level rise Population growth scenarios: in low-elevation coastal zones (LECZ) A = growth at high end of forecasts Once in 100-years floodplain 1 million >200 million B = growth at lowest end of forecasts people people C = growth at highest end of forecasts Mean sea level D = growth at low end of forecasts Figure 9.28 |  Tens to hundreds of millions of people in Africa are projected to be exposed to sea level rise, with a major risk driver being increased exposure due to population increase in low-lying areas. (a) Population in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) projected to be exposed to mean sea level rise (SLR) for 2030 (+10 cm SLR) and 2060 (+21 cm SLR). Scenarios A, C have exclusive social, political and economic governance whereas scenarios B and D have inclusive social, political and economic governance. (b) African countries with the highest projected population numbers in the LECZ, and also the additional population projected to be exposed in these countries due to a 1-in-100 year storm surge event. For panel b projections of population exposure used the high population growth socio-economic scenario (scenario C). Data sourced from Neumann et al. (2015). households and Africa’s growing assets could therefore be exposed to In the absence of any adaptation, Egypt, Mozambique, and Nigeria increased flooding (IPCC, 2018b). are projected to be worst affected by SLR in terms of the number of people at risk of flooding annually in a 4°C warming scenario (Hinkel 9.9.4.1.2 Sea level rise and coastal flooding et al., 2012). Recent estimates have explored the potential damages due to SLR and coastal extreme events in 12 major African cities using Africa’s low-lying coastal zone population is expected to grow more a stochastic approach to account for uncertainty (Abadie et al., 2020). than any other region from 2000 to 2060 (see Figure 9.28; Neumann The aggreate of expected average damages to these cities in 2050 et al., 2015). Future rapid coastal development is expected to increase is USD  65  billion for RCP4.5 and USD  86.5  billion for RCP8.5, and existing high vulnerabilities to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal hazards, USD 137.5 billion under a high-end scenario that incorporates expert particularly in east Africa (high confidence) (Figure 9.29; Hinkel et al., opinion on additional ice sheet melting with damages up to (Table 9.8). 2012; Kulp and Strauss, 2019). By 2100, sea levels are projected to When considering low-probability, high-damage events, aggregate rise at least 40 cm above those in 2000 in a below 2°C scenario, and damage risks can be more than twice as high, reaching USD 187 billion possibly up to 1 m by the end of the century under a 4°C warming and USD 206 billion under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, scenario (Serdeczny et  al., 2017; see also Cross-Chapter Box  SLR in and USD 397 billion under the high-end scenario. City characteristics Chapter 3). and exposure play a larger role in expected damages and risk than changes in sea level. The city of Alexandria in north Africa leads the 1364 Africa Chapter 9 Selected regions at risk (a) Dar es Salaam, Bagamoyo and Stonetown (Tanzania) of projected sea level rise Present day 2050 2100 (c) (b) (a) Permanent flooding RCP8.5 9 due to RCP4.5 sea level rise RCP2.6 Area built-up by 2014 Present 50 km sea level (b) Lagos (Nigeria) and Cotonou and Porto-Novo (Benin) (c) Cairo and Alexandria (Egypt) Present day 2050 2100 50 km 50 km Figure 9.29 |  Multiple large African cities will be exposed to sea level rise (SLR), these include the selected examples: (a) Dar es Salaam, Bagamoyo, and Stone Town in Tanzania (east Africa), (b) Lagos in Nigeria, and Cotonou and Porto-Novo in Benin (west Africa) and (c) Cairo and Alexandria in Egypt (north Africa). Orange shows built-up area in 2014. Shades of blue show permanent flooding due to SLR by 2050 and 2100 under low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Darker colours for higher emissions scenarios show areas projected to be flooded in addition to those for lower emissions scenarios. The figure assumes failure of coastal defences in 2050 and 2100. Some areas are already below current SLR and coastal defences need to be upgraded as SLRs (e.g., in Egypt), others are just above mean sea levels and they do not necessarily have high protection levels, so these defences need to be built (e.g., Dar es Salaam and Lagos). Blue shading shows permanent inundation surfaces predicted by Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) given the 95th percentile K14/RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for present day, 2050, and 2100 sea level projection for permanent inundation (inundation without a storm surge event), and RL10 (10-year return level storm) (Kulp and Strauss, 2019). Low-lying areas isolated from the ocean are removed from the inundation surface using connected components analysis. Current water bodies are derived from the SRTM Water Body Dataset. Orange areas represent the extent of coastal human settlements in 2014 (Corbane et al., 2018). See Figure CCP4.7 for projections including subsidence and worst-case scenario projections for 2100. 1365 Chapter 9 Africa Table 9.8 |  Regional relative sea level rise (SLR) for 2050 and 2100, and associated aggregated expected damage risks over the period 2020 to 2050 in 12 major African coastal cities under four SLR scenarios. (a) Regional relative SLR by 2050 and 2100. For SLR, median and 95th percentiles are presented, in centimetres. (b) Probabilistic damage estimations by 2050 include expected average damages (EAD), damages at the 95th percentile (value at risk; VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES), which represents the average damages of the 5% worst cases. Four relative sea level projections were considered under no adaptation: the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios from the (IPCC, 2014a), and a high-end RCP8.5 scenario that incorporates expert opinion on additional ice sheet melting. Note that figures are provided in undiscounted millions of US dollars (2005) and have been rounded off to avoid a false sense of precision (Abadie et al., 2020; Abadie et al., 2021). (a) Regional relative sea level rise (cm) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 High-end City Year Median P95 Median P95 Median P95 Median P95 2050 21 30 22 32 24 34 28 48 Abidjan 2100 44 69 53 86 75 114 86 206 2050 18 26 18 28 21 30 25 43 Alexandria 2100 36 58 46 73 67 102 78 186 9 2050 19 27 19 29 22 31 25 45 Algiers 2100 39 62 47 76 66 98 78 192 2050 20 30 21 31 23 33 27 48 Cape Town 2100 44 69 53 87 75 117 86 199 2050 19 27 20 29 22 31 26 46 Casablanca 2100 39 63 47 78 65 99 77 198 2050 21 31 21 31 23 33 27 48 Dakar 2100 43 69 53 86 73 111 85 209 Dar es 2050 20 29 21 31 24 33 27 47 Salaam 2100 45 70 54 86 76 117 87 206 2050 20 30 22 32 25 34 28 49 Durban 2100 46 72 55 90 78 119 89 207 2050 21 30 22 32 24 34 28 48 Lagos 2100 44 69 54 86 75 113 86 205 2050 21 30 22 32 24 34 28 48 Lome 2100 44 69 53 86 76 115 87 205 2050 21 30 23 32 25 35 29 49 Luanda 2100 45 70 55 88 78 119 90 205 2050 21 31 22 32 24 34 28 49 Maputo 2100 45 71 55 89 78 120 89 209 (b) Expected average damages and risk measures (USD millions) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 High-end scenario City EAD VaR(95%) ES(95%) EAD VaR(95%) ES(95%) EAD VaR(95%) ES(95%) EAD VaR(95%) ES(95%) Abidjan 14,290 33,910 41,690 16,730 38,230 46,390 20,910 42,140 49,550 32,670 77,750 96,570 Alexandria 32,840 74,100 92,470 36,220 83,700 104,270 49,990 99,500 117,580 79,360 180,090 221,390 Algiers 270 620 760 300 700 870 390 810 960 640 1,540 1,920 Cape Town 110 310 400 130 360 450 170 410 490 300 800 1,010 Casablanca 350 1,150 1,520 420 1,340 1,740 610 1,570 1,930 1,230 3,590 4,630 Dakar 590 1,310 1,590 620 1,390 1,690 760 1,530 1,800 1,180 2,880 3,610 Dar es 880 2,100 2,600 1,050 2,440 2,970 1,360 2,760 3,250 2,140 5,120 6,360 Salaam Durban 110 370 470 150 420 530 210 490 590 370 970 1,230 Lagos 3,680 6,790 7,950 4,200 7,660 8,930 4,920 8,270 9,420 6,750 13,820 16,730 Lome 3,230 10,480 13,460 4,280 12,580 15,780 5,980 14,430 17,380 10,720 28,580 36,010 Luanda 160 380 470 200 440 530 260 510 600 400 910 1,130 Maputo 650 1,990 2,530 700 2,080 2,620 980 2,410 2,910 1,790 4,830 6,110 Aggregate damage 57,160 133,510 165,910 65,000 151,340 186,770 86,540 174,830 206,460 137,550 320,880 396,700 and risk 1366 Africa Chapter 9 ranking, with aggregate expected damage of USD  36  billion and population growth (SSP4) by the 2060s, with increases of 20–52 times USD 50 billion under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, and 1985–2005 levels by 2080–2100, depending on the scenario (Rohat USD 79.4 billion under a high-end scenario. et al., 2019). West Africa (especially Nigeria) has the highest absolute exposure and southern Africa the least. Considering the urban heat Sea level rise and associated episodic flooding are identified as key island effect, the more vulnerable populations under 5 and over 64 drivers of projected net migration of 750,000 people out of the east exposed to heat waves of >15 days over 42°C are projected to increase African coastal zone between 2020 and 2050 (IPCC, 2019a). These from 27  million in 2010 to 360  million by 2100 for low population trends, alongside the emergence of ‘hotspots’ of climate in- and growth (SSP1) with 1.8°C global warming, increasing to 440 million for out-migration (Box  9.8), will have major implications for climate- low population growth (SSP5) with >4°C global warming, with west sensitive sectors and the adequacy of human settlements, including Africa most affected (Marcotullio et al., 2021). This portends increased urban infrastructure and social support systems. Actions which could vulnerability to risk of heat stress in big cities of central, east and west help reduce the number of people being forced to move in distress, Africa (very high confidence) (Gasparrini et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2017; include adoption of inclusive and CRD policies, together with Rohat et al., 2019). Shifting to a low urban population growth pathway targeted investments to manage the reality of climate migration; and is projected to achieve a greater reduction in aggregate exposure to mainstreaming climate migration in development planning (Box 9.8). extreme heat for most cities in west Africa, whereas limiting warming 9 through lower emissions pathways achieves greater reductions in 9.9.4.1.3 Drought exposure in central and east Africa (Rohat et al., 2019). Although an increase in drought hazard is projected for north and The African population exposed to compound climate extremes, southwest southern Africa with increased global warming (Figure 9.15), such as coincident heat waves and droughts or drought followed central African countries may have the highest drought risk because of immediately by extreme rainfall, is projected to increase 47-fold high vulnerability and high population growth (Ahmadalipour et  al., by 2070–2099 compared to 1981–2010 for a scenario with high 2019). Among continents, Africa contains the second largest population population growth and 4°C global warming (SSP3/RCP8.5) and only of people living in drylands, which is expected to double by 2050 12-fold for low population growth and 1.6°C global warming (SSP1/ (IPCC, 2019a). Continuing current population and GDP growth trends, RCP2.6), with west, central-east, northeastern and southeastern Africa the extent of urban land in arid zones is projected to increase around especially exposed (Weber et  al., 2020). Coincident heat waves and 180% in southern Africa, 300% in north Africa and 700% in mid-latitude drought is the compound event to which the most people are projected Africa by 2030 when compared to 2000, without considering climate to be exposed: ~1.9 billion person-events (a 14-fold increase) for SSP1/ change (Güneralp et al., 2015). At 1.5°C warming, urban populations RCP2.6 and ~7.3  billion person-events (52-fold increase) for SSP3/ exposed to severe droughts in west Africa are projected to increase RCP8.5 (Weber et al., 2020). (65±34  million) and increase further at 2°C (IPCC, 2018b; Liu et  al., 2018b). Risks associated with increases in drought frequency and 9.9.4.2 Projected Risks to Electricity Generation and Transmission magnitudes are projected to be substantially larger at 2°C than at 1.5°C for north Africa and southern Africa (IPCC, 2018b; Oppenheimer et al., Climate change poses an increased risk to energy security for human 2019). Dryland populations exposed (vulnerable) to water stress, heat settlements in Africa (high confidence). With burgeoning urban stress, and desertification are projected to reach 951 (178) million at populations and growing economies, sub-Saharan Africa’s electricity 1.5°C, 1152 (220) million at 2°C, and 1285 (277) million at 3°C of global needs are growing. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects warming (IPCC, 2019a). At global warming of 2°C under a scenario total generation capacity in Africa must grow 2.5 times from 244 GW of low population growth and sustainable development (SSP1), the in 2018 to 614 GW by 2040 (IEA, 2019). African nations plan to add exposed (vulnerable) dryland population is 974 (35) million and for significant generation capacity from natural gas, hydropower, wind higher population growth and low environmental protections (SSP3) it and solar power. Each of these technologies is associated to a varying is 1.27 billion (522 million), a majority of which is in west Africa (IPCC, degree with climate risk. 2019a). The long lifespan of hydropower dams exposes them to decades of 9.9.4.1.4 Extreme heat climatic change risk. There is a wide range of uncertainty around the future climate of Africa’s major river basins, but in several basins, Projections for 173 African cities show that around 25 cities will have there is the likelihood of increased rainfall variability and a drier over 150 days per year with an apparent temperature above 40.6°C for climate (see Box 9.5). In countries that rely primarily on hydropower, 1.7°C global warming, increasing to 35 cities for 2.1°C and 65 cities climate change could have considerable impacts on electricity prices for 4.4°C warming, with west African cities most affected (Rohat et al., and as a result, consumers’ expenditure (Sridharan et al., 2019). With 2019). Across Africa, urban population exposure to extreme heat was increasing societal demands on limited water resources and future estimated to be 2 billion person-days per year above 40°C for 1985– climate change, it is expected that there will be an intensification 2005 (that is the annual average number of days with a maximum of WEF competition and trade-offs (high confidence) (Section  9.7; temperature above 40.6°C multiplied by the number of people exposed Box 9.5). to that temperature), but this is expected to increase to 45  billion person-days for 1.7°C global warming with low population growth (SSP1), and to 95  billion person-days for 2.8°C and medium-high 1367 Chapter 9 Africa Projected costs for repair and maintenance of 9.9.5 Adaptation in Human Settlements and for pre-2011 road infrastructure as a result of projected Infrastructure climate-change-related damages 9.9.5.1 Solutions and Residual Risk Observed in Human Sub-Saharan Africa Median Max of Settlements Mozambique 22 SRES scenarios Tanzania Autonomous responses to climate impacts in 40 African cities show Ethiopia that excess rainfall is the primary climate driver of adaptation, followed Côte d'Ivoire by multi-hazard impacts, with 72% of responses focused on excess Morocco rainfall (Hunter et al., 2020). Innovation for adaptation in areas such Democratic Republic as home design, social networks, organisations and infrastructure, is of Congo evident (Swanepoel and Sauka, 2019). Social learning platforms also Niger 87% increase communities’ adaptive capacities and resilience to risk (Thorn Algeria et al., 2015). 9 Mali Namibia There is limited evidence of successful, proactively planned climate 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% change adaptation in African cities (Simon and Leck, 2015), particularly Proportion of 2011 GDP for those countries highly vulnerable to climate change (Ford et  al., 2014). Planned adaptation initiatives in African cities since 2006 have Figure 9.30 |  Projected costs for repair and maintenance of pre-2011 road been predominantly determined at the national level with negligible infrastructure in selected African countries as a result of projected climate- participation of lower levels of government (Ford et  al., 2014). change-related damages due directly to precipitation and temperature Adaptation action directed at vulnerable populations is also rare (Ford changes through to 2100. Data sources: Chinowsky et al. (2013). The analysis was et  al., 2014). There are emerging examples of cities planned climate run for 22 SRES climate scenarios and the median, and maximum results of the analyses adaptation measures, such as those advanced by Durban (Roberts, are represented as proportions of the 2011 GDP of each country. 2010), Cape Town (Taylor et al., 2016) and Lagos (Adelekan, 2016). There are also examples of community-led projects such as those in Maputo 9.9.4.3 Projected Risks to Road Infrastructure (Broto et al., 2015), which have seen meaningful help from a range of policy networks, dialogue forums and urban learning labs (Pasquini and Climate change and SLR will result in high economic costs for road Cowling, 2014; Shackleton et al., 2015). These researched cities can be infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa (medium confidence) (Chinowsky lighthouses for wider exchange and the basis for a deeper synthesis of et  al., 2015). Across Africa as a whole, potential cumulative costs evidence (Lindley et al., 2019). However, planned adaptation progress is estimates through 2100 range from USD  183.6  billion (with slow, especially in west and central Africa (Tiepolo, 2014). adaptation) to USD  248.3  billion (no adaptation) to repair and maintain existing roads damaged by temperature and precipitation Ecosystem-based approaches are also being deployed in mitigating changes directly related to projected climate change (see Figure 9.30) and adapting to climate change, with demonstrated long-term health, (Chinowsky et al., 2013). Climate-related road damage and associated ecological and social co-benefits (Section 9.6.4; Swanepoel and Sauka, repairs will be a significant financial burden to countries, but to 2019). The cost–benefit analysis of nature-based solutions, compared varying degrees according to flood risk, existing road asset liability, to purely grey infrastructure initiatives, is discussed in Chapter 6 topography and rural connectivity, among other factors (Chinowsky (Section  6.3.3). Nature-based solutions can also lengthen the life of et  al., 2015; Cervigni et  al., 2017; Koks et  al., 2019). For example, existing built infrastructure (du Toit et al., 2018). Since 2014, an increasing Mozambique is projected to face estimated annual average costs number of EbA projects involving the restoration of mangrove, wetland of USD  123  million for maintaining and repairing roads damaged and riparian ecosystems have been initiated across Africa, a majority of directly by precipitation and temperature changes from climate which address water-related climate risks (Table 9.9). change through 2050 in a median climate change scenario for a policy that does not consider climate impacts during road design For green infrastructure to be successful, however, sustainable landscapes and construction (Chinowsky et al., 2015). Risk of river flooding to and regions require both stewardship and management at multiple bridges in Mozambique under current conditions is estimated to be levels of governance and social scales (Brink et al., 2016). USD 200 million, equal to 1.5% of its GDP per year, and could rise to USD 400 million per year in the worst-case climate change scenario Currently, planned climate change adaptation to coastal hazards by 2050 (Schweikert et al., 2015). in Africa’s large coastal cities has mainly been achieved through expensive coastal engineering efforts such as sea walls, revetments, breakwaters, spillways, dikes and groynes. Examples are found in west Africa (Adelekan, 2016; Alves et al., 2020). Beach nourishment efforts have also been undertaken in Egypt, Banjul and Lagos (Frihy et al., 2016; Alves et al., 2020). However, the use of vegetated coastal ecosystems presents greater opportunities for African cities because of the lower costs (Duarte et al., 2013). 1368 Africa Chapter 9 Table 9.9 |  Examples of ecosystem-based adaptations to climate impacts in African cities. Project City Ecosystem-based Adaptation Reference Mitigating against increased flood risks through restoration of mangrove and IPCC (2019a); CES Consulting Green Urban Infrastructure Beira (Mozambique) other natural habitats along the Chiveve river and the development of urban Engineers Salzgitter GmbH green spaces. and Inros Lackner SE (2020) The Msimbazi Opportunity Plan (MOP) Enhancing urban resilience to flood risk by reducing flood hazard, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Croitoru et al. (2019) 2019–2024 reducing people, properties and critical infrastructure exposed to flood hazard. Dar es Salaam and five Tanzania Ecosystem-based Adaptation Rehabilitation of over 3000 ha of climate-resilient mangrove species. UNEP (2019) coastal districts, Tanzania Building Resilience in the Coastal Zone Restoration of mangrove and riparian ecosystems for flood control and through Ecosystem-based Approaches Maputo, Mozambique GEF (2019) protection from coastal flooding enhanced water supply. to Adaptation Addressing Urgent Coastal Adaptation Five coastal communities Restoration of 561 ha of wetland, mangroves and other ecological habitats to UNEP (2020) Needs and Capacity Gaps in Angola in Angola promote flood defence and mitigate the threat of drought. Green City Kigali Planned neighbourhood of 600 ha, integrating green building and design, 9 Kigali, Rwanda SWECO (2019) 2016 efficient and renewable energy, recycling and inclusive living. Urban Natural Assets for Africa—Rivers Preservation of natural buffers to enhance the protective functions offered by Kampala, Uganda World Bank (2015) for Life natural ecosystems that support disaster resilience benefit. Most (>80%) of Africa’s large coastal cities have no adaptation incur higher economic costs through adaptation policy when compared policies and, where available, these are mostly, except for South to no adaptation policy (Cervigni et al., 2017). Africa, dominated by national plans (Olazabal et  al., 2019). Coastal adaptation actions minimally consider socioeconomic projections and Adaptation measures in the transport sector have focused on the climate are not at all aligned with future climate scenarios and risks, which is resilience of road infrastructure. Modelling suggests that proactive highly limiting for adaptation planning (Olazabal et al., 2019). adaptation of road designs to account for temperature increases is a ‘no regret’ option in all cases, but accounting for precipitation increases 9.9.5.2 Anticipated Adaptation and Residual Risk for Human should be assessed on a case-by-case basis (medium confidence) Settlements (Cervigni et al., 2017). African governments will need climate adaptation financing options to meet the higher capital requirements of resilient Africa’s smaller towns and cities have received far less scholarly and road infrastructure interventions (Hearn, 2016). policy development attention for adaptation (Clapp and Pillay, 2017; White and Wahba, 2019). Smaller towns also have less ability to partner Under the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action programme, effectively with private entities for adaptation initiatives (Wisner et al., investments in public transport and transit-oriented development are 2015). Political will to address climate change and information flows highlighted as desired mitigation–adaptation interventions within between key stakeholders, professional and political decision makers cities of South Africa, Ethiopia and Burkina Faso (UNFCCC, 2020). may be easier to establish in smaller cities than in the megacity context These interventions simultaneously reduce the vulnerability of low- (Wisner et al., 2015). income residents to climate shocks, prevent lock-ins into carbon- intensive development pathways and reduce poverty (high confidence) Exposure and vulnerability are particularly acute in informal areas, (Hallegatte et  al., 2016; Rozenberg et  al., 2019). The combined making coordinated adaptation challenging. Yet, there is growing mitigation–adaptation interventions in the land use transport systems recognition of the potential for bottom-up adaptation that embraces of African cities are also expected to have sufficient short-term co- informality in order to more effectively reduce risk (Figure 9.31; Taylor benefits (reducing air pollution, congestion and traffic fatalities) to be et al., 2021a). This can provide an opportunity for change towards more ‘no regret’ investments (very high confidence) (Hallegatte et al., 2016; risk-sensitive urban development and transformative climate adaptation Rozenberg et al., 2019). Only eight African countries have transport- (Leck et al., 2018). Addressing social vulnerability is particularly important specific adaptation measures in their NDCs (Nwamarah, 2018). Five for ensuring the resilience of populations at risk. Improved monitoring, African countries have submitted NAPs (Table 9.10). modelling and communication of climate risks is needed to reduce the impacts of climate hazards (Tramblay et al., 2020; Cole et al., 2021a). 9.9.5.4 Projected Adaptation for Electricity Generation and Transmission in Africa 9.9.5.3 Anticipated Adaptation for Transport Systems in Africa Most electricity infrastructure in Africa has been designed to account Higher costs will be incurred to maintain and repair damages caused for historical climatic patterns. Failure to consider future climate to existing roads as a result of climate change for countries with no scenarios in power system planning increases the climate risk facing adaptation policy for transport infrastructure (very high confidence) infrastructure and supplies. Yet, energy demand for cooling over Africa, (Chinowsky et  al., 2013; Cervigni et  al., 2017; Koks et  al., 2019). for example, is expected to increase, with a potential increase in heat Countries with a greater percentage of unpaved roads will, however, stress, population growth and rapid urbanisation to 1.2% of total final 1369 Chapter 9 Africa Key elements of adaptation in informal settlements in Africa Hazard Vulnerability Climate hazard affecting the highest Vulnerability context of number of people per country (2000–2019) informal settlements in Africa Currently: Vulnerability • 189 million people (59%) of urban population live in informal settlements • 72% of non-agricultural employment in the informal sector • 78% of residential areas developed between 1990 and 2014 Hazard Risk Exposure Projected: Drought • Cost of water, electricity and transport delays USD300 million per year Extreme temperature Response • 3x urban population by 2050 9 Flood • 4x physical footprint by 2050 Storm • Africa needs to spend USD 130–170 million per year on basic infrastructure delivery • 1.2 billion people will live in informal settlements by 2050 Adaptation Actions to Actions to Actions to Actions to Limits to pathways reduce Hazards reduce Exposure reduce Vulnerability reduce Risks adaptation Such as, • Ecosystem-based • Risk sensitive land use • Comprehensive in situ • Cooling spaces during • Physical • Pooling (e.g. measures to reduce planning community upgrading heatwaves riparian and coastal • Ecological knowledge, care, flooding • Early warning systems • Ameliorate flood desert • Access to clean space, income and drinking water and • Technological labour • Mangroves alleviate • Evacuation routes conditions sanitation • Economic • Diversification of coastal storm energy • Maintained storm • Actions to reduce surface drains discrimination • Effective Disaster • Political livelihoods •Water reservoirs to Risk Reduction • Institutional • Mobility/migration buffer low-flows and • Hazard proof housing • High quality health care water scarcity infrastructure • Insurance • Access to clean, • Psychological and/or • Rationing over reliable renewable socio-cultural time/community saving • Transport • Clarification of land energy schemes infrastructure tenure •Watershed • Intensification (e.g. management crop production) • Material and symbolic exchange • Innovation and reconfiguration of ideologies Figure 9.31 |  Key elements of adaptation in informal settlements in Africa. Adapted from Thorn et al. (2015); Fedele et al. (2019); Satterthwaite et al. (2020). Table 9.10 |  Transport sector references in the National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) of five African countries. Source: Government of Burkina Faso (2015); Government of Cameroon (2015); Government of Togo (2016); Government of Kenya (2017); Government of Ethiopia (2019). Promote transport Transport-specific adaptation measures Identify climate Country as a disaster risk change impacts Climate-resilient Promote public Promote non-mo- Urban land use reduction measure design standards transport torised transport planning Burkina Faso X X X X Cameroon X X Ethiopia X X X X Kenya X Togo X X energy demand by 2100 compared to 0.4% in 2005 (Parkes et  al., For hydropower, adaptations to different climate conditions can 2019). Integrated energy system costs from increased demand for be made at the level of the power plant, turbine size and reservoir cooling to mitigate heat stress are projected to accumulate from 2005 storage capacities, and can be adjusted to projected hydrological to USD 51.3 billion by 2035 at 2°C and to USD 486.5 billion by 2076 at patterns (Lempert et  al., 2015). At the river basin level, integrated 4°C global warming (Parkes et al., 2019). water resource management practices can be implemented across 1370 Africa Chapter 9 Observed climate change impacts and projected risks across African regions for eight key health outcomes Health outcomes Heat-related All-cause mortality Air per region Dengue Diarrhoeal illness and attributed to non- pollution- Malaria and Zika Cholera disease HIV mortality optimal temperatures related >4°C >3°C >2°C – >1.5°C – >1°C Observed 9 Key for criteria used to define the severity of observed impact or projected risk for each health outcome Increase in incidence Increase in Impact People Number Number (cases/ population Cost or risk exposed of cases of deaths deaths) at risk (million USD) Confidence level Projected risk Very high >10 million >100,000 >3,000 >10% 31–50% >100 per global warming level High >1 million >10,000 >1,000 >7% 21–30% >50 Observed impact Low Medium High Very Moderate >100,000 >1,000 >500 >5% 11–20% >10 high Low >1,000 >100 >100 >2% 5–10% >1 – Negligible – – – – – – = Conflicting result Reduced >1,000 >100 >100 >2% 5–10% >1 Empty = Insufficient evidence available Figure 9.32 |  Risks to health in Africa increase with increasing global warming. Observed climate impacts and projected climate change risks across African regions for eight key health outcomes. Global warming levels shown refer to increases relative to pre-industrial values (1850–1900). This list of health impacts and risks is not intended to be exhaustive, but instead focuses on well-documented conditions. This assessment is a synthesis across 58 studies on observed impacts and 29 studies on projected risks for health (see Table SM 9.7). The category of air pollution-related health outcomes includes health impacts from changing particulate matter concentrations due to climate change. sectors that compete for the same water resources (Howells et  al., sectors with other societal and ecological demands under increasingly 2013). At the power system level, the energy mix and the protocol variable climate and hydrological conditions (Section 9.7.3). through which different power plants are dispatched can be adapted to different climate scenarios (Spalding-Fecher et al., 2017; Sridharan et al., 2019). 9.10 Health Given the uncertainty around future hydroclimate conditions, The health section is organised by disease or health outcome, with hydropower development decisions carry risk of ‘regrets’ (that is, observed impacts and projected risks described for each condition. All damages or missed opportunities) when a different climate than was adaptation options are presented at the end of the section, highlighting expected materialises. ‘Robust adaptation’ refers to an adaptation prevention and preparedness, community engagement and disease- strategy that balances risks across different climate scenarios (Cross- specific adaptation options. Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17; Cervigni et al., 2015). Development bank lending principles require consideration of the regional picture and interactions with other developments along a river when they 9.10.1 The Influence of Social Determinants of Health on determine the social and environmental impacts of the proposed the Impacts of Climate Change hydropower project. However, these principles often do not explicitly consider climate change, so the risk of recurring drought-induced The social determinants of health are ‘the conditions in which people hydropower shortages could be missed (Box 9.5). are born, grow, live, work and age’ as well as the drivers of these, including the social circumstances which profoundly affect health Lastly, given the degree to which hydropower competes with other and drive health disparities (Commission of Social Determinants of sectors and ecosystems for the same water resources, it is critical Health, 2008; Gurewich et  al., 2020). Social features (e.g., health- that hydropower planning and adaptation does not occur in isolation. related behaviours), socioeconomic factors (e.g., income, wealth and As discussed in Section  9.7, it must be part of an integrated water education) and environmental determinants (e.g., air or water quality) management system that balances the needs of different water-reliant are critical for shaping health outcomes. These factors are inextricably 1371 Northern Central Eastern Western Southern Northern Central Eastern Western Southern Northern Central Eastern Western Southern Northern Central Eastern Western Southern Northern Central Eastern Western Southern Northern Central Eastern Western Southern Northern Central Eastern Western Southern Northern Central Eastern Western Southern Chapter 9 Africa linked (Schulz and Northridge, 2004; Moore and Diaz, 2015) and are studies show both positive (Adu-Prah and Kofi Tetteh, 2015; Darkoh largely outside the domain of the health sector. Climate change is et al., 2017) and negative (M’Bra et al., 2018) correlations of malaria already challenging the health and well-being of African communities, incidence with increases in mean monthly temperatures, and an compounding the effects of underlying inequalities (high confidence). abundance of Anopheles gambiae s.s. associated with mean diurnal The interlinkage between climate change and social determinants of temperature (Akpan et al., 2018). health are largely discussed at a global level (Commission of Social Determinants of Health, 2008), or for developed countries (Ahdoot Malaria incidence and outbreaks in east Africa were linked with both et  al., 2015; Levy and Patz, 2015; Department of Economic and moderate monthly rainfall and extreme flooding (Boyce et al., 2016; Social Affairs, 2016), with scant evidence for Africa. Nevertheless, Amadi et  al., 2018; Simple et  al., 2018), and increase 1–2  months there is robust evidence that the health impacts of climate change after periods of rainfall in southern and west Africa (Diouf et  al., disproportionately affect the poorest people and children and, in some 2017; Ferrão et al., 2017; Adeola et al., 2019). The years following La situations, can differ by gender and age (St Louis and Hess, 2008; Niña events (southern Africa) (Adeola et al., 2017)) and high relative Nyahunda et  al., 2020; Ragavan et  al., 2020; see Box 9.1). Unequal humidity (west Africa) (Adu-Prah and Kofi Tetteh, 2015; Darkoh et al., access to health care particularly affects rural communities (Falchetta 2017) have been positively linked with malaria incidence. 9 et  al., 2020), vulnerable women and children (Wigley et  al., 2020a) and challenges the achievement of development priorities such as Projected risks universal health care access (SDG 3) (Weiss et al., 2020). Since AR5, significant progress has been made in understanding how changes in climate influence the seasonal and geographical range 9.10.2 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks of malaria vectors, transmission intensity and burden of disease of malaria across Africa. Yet projecting changes remains challenging given Climate change is already impacting certain health outcomes in the range of factors that influence transmission and disease patterns, Africa (e.g. temperature-related mortality) and risks for most (but and model outputs contain high degrees of uncertainty (Zermoglio not all) health outcomes are projected to increase with increasing et al., 2019; Giesen et al., 2020). Models have limited ability to account global warming (Figure 9.32), with young children (<5 years old), the for population changes and development trends (Kibret et al., 2015; elderly (>65 years old), pregnant women, individuals with pre-existing 2017), investments in health sectors and interventions (McCord, 2016; morbidities, physical labourers and people living in poverty or affected by Colborn et al., 2018; Caminade et al., 2019), and confounders such as other socioeconomic determinants of health being the most vulnerable age, socioeconomic status, employment, labour migration and climate (high confidence). Women may be more vulnerable to climate change variability (Bennett et al., 2016; Karuri and Snow, 2016; Byass et al., impacts than men (Chersich et al., 2018; Jaka and Shava, 2018; Adzawla 2017; Chuang et al., 2017; Colborn et al., 2018). Nevertheless, available et al., 2019a). Contextualising projected impacts of climate change on models do allow for projections of malaria transmission under different health requires an understanding of observed impacts (Figure  9.32). climate change scenarios to be made with high levels of certainty. Without management and mitigation, current and projected morbidities and mortalities will put additional strain on health, social and economic In east and southern Africa and the Sahel, malaria vector hotspots systems (Hendrix, 2017; Alonso et al., 2019). and prevalence are projected to increase under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by 2030 (1.5°C–1.7°C global warming) (high confidence) (Leedale et  al., 9.10.2.1 Vector-borne Diseases 2016; Semakula et al., 2017b; Zermoglio et al., 2019), becoming more pronounced later in the century (2.4°C–3.9°C global warming) (Ryan 9.10.2.1.1 Malaria et  al., 2020). Under RCP4.5, 50.6–62.1  million people in east and southern Africa will be at risk of malaria by the 2030s (1.5°C global Observed impacts warming), and 196–198 million by the 2080s (2.4°C global warming) (Ryan et al., 2020). Northern Angola, southern DRC, western Tanzania and Higher temperatures and shifting patterns of rainfall influence the central Uganda are predicted to be worst impacted in 2030, extending distribution and incidence of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa (high to western Angola, upper Zambezi River basin, northeastern Zambia confidence) (Agusto et  al., 2015; Beck-Johnson et  al., 2017). Up to and the east African Highlands by 2080 (Ryan et al., 2020). Under rising 10.9 million km2 of sub-Saharan Africa is optimally suitable for year-round temperatures, by the 2050s, the greatest shifts in suitability for malaria malaria transmission (Mordecai et al., 2013; Ryan et al., 2015). Current transmission will be seen in east, southern and central Africa (2°C global climate suitability for endemic malaria transmission is concentrated in warming) (Tonnang et al., 2014; Zermoglio et al., 2019; Ryan et al., 2020). the central African region, some areas along the southern coast of west Africa and the east African coast (Ryan et al., 2020). Conversely, in some regions, changing climatic conditions are projected to reduce malaria hotspots and prevalence. With continued GHG In east Africa, there has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector emissions, these include: west Africa by 2030 (1.7°C global warming) into higher altitudes (Gone et  al., 2014; Carlson et  al., 2019) and (high confidence) (Yamana et al., 2016; Semakula et al., 2017b; Ryan increasing incidence of infection with Plasmodium falciparum with et al., 2020), parts of southern central Africa and dryland regions in east higher temperatures (high confidence) (Alemu et al., 2014; Lyon et al., Africa by 2050 (2.5°C global warming) (high confidence) (Semakula 2017). Over southern Africa, changes in temperature and rainfall are et  al., 2017b; Ryan et  al., 2020) and large areas of southern central increasing malaria transmission (Abiodun et al., 2018). In west Africa, Africa and the western Sahel by 2100 (>4°C global warming) (Yu et al., 1372 Africa Chapter 9 2015; Tourre et al., 2019). These reductions in transmission correspond range due to changing environmental suitability, combined with rapid with decreasing environmental suitability for the malaria vector and urbanisation and population growth, suggest that by 2050 populations parasite in these regions (Ryan et al., 2015; Mordecai et al., 2020). Most exposed to these vectors in Africa may double, and by 2080 nearly areas in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, triple at >2°C global warming (Kraemer et al., 2019). Southern limits Sierra Leone, Zambia and Zimbabwe will have almost zero malaria of dengue transmission in Namibia and Botswana, and the western transmission under RCP8.5 (Semakula et al., 2017b; Tourre et al., 2019). Sahel, may show the greatest expansions in environmental suitability under 1.8°C–2.6°C global warming (Messina et  al., 2019). In the The ENSO cycle currently contributes to seasonal epidemic malaria in warmest scenarios (RCP8.5), however, some parts of central Africa epidemic-prone areas (high confidence), and is projected to shift the may become too hot for mosquitoes to transmit dengue, and thus malaria epidemic fringe southward and into higher altitudes by mid- at-risk populations may peak at intermediate warming levels (Ryan to end-century (high confidence) (Bouma et al., 2016; Semakula et al., et al., 2019). Climatic conditions favourable for mosquitoes, combined 2017b; Caminade et al., 2019). More evidence is needed, however, of with the increase of animal trade, may result in the expansion of the climate variability impacts through ENSO cycles in future risk projections, geographic range of zoonotic diseases like RVF (Martin et al., 2008), as well as a deeper understanding of how climate change will impact a threat for human and animal health with strong socioeconomic the length of transmission season for mosquitoes, particularly in areas impacts (Peyre et al., 2015). 9 where increases in spring and autumn temperatures may increase suitability for the reproduction of malaria vectors (Ryan et al., 2020). 9.10.2.2 Diarrhoeal Diseases, HIV and Other Infectious Diseases Other gaps in knowledge include a better understanding of mosquito thermal biology and thermal limits for a variety of species, potential 9.10.2.2.1 Diarrhoeal diseases adaptations to extreme temperatures and how landscape changes contribute to malaria transmission (Tompkins and Caporaso, 2016). Observed impacts 9.10.2.1.2 Mosquito-borne viruses Africa has the highest rates of death due to diarrhoeal diseases in the world (Havelaar et al., 2015; Troeger et al., 2018) and many children have Observed impacts repeated diarrhoeal episodes with impaired growth, stunting, immune dysfunction and reduced cognitive performance (Squire and Ryan, Climate variability has driven a global intensification of mosquito- 2017). High land and sea temperatures (Paz, 2009; Musengimana et al., borne viruses (e.g., dengue, Zika and RVF), including expansion into 2016) and precipitation extremes increase transmission of bacterial and areas with higher altitudes (Leedale et al., 2016; Mweya et al., 2016; protozoal diarrhoeal disease agents (Boeckmann et al., 2019) through Messina et  al., 2019). Concerns centre on diseases vectored by the contamination of drinking water and food preparation and preservation yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti), common throughout most practices (Figure 9.33; Levy et al., 2016; Soneja et al., 2016; Walker, 2018). of sub-Saharan Africa, and the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), currently largely confined to western central Africa (Kraemer et  al., Cholera incidence has been shown to increase with temperature 2019; Mordecai et al., 2020). (Trærup et al., 2011). Outbreaks, however, are most frequent in east and southern Africa following tropical cyclones (Moore et al., 2017b; Although warming temperatures are largely responsible for increasing Troeger et al., 2018; Ajayi and Smith, 2019; Cambaza et al., 2019). environmental suitability for mosquito vectors (Mordecai et  al., 2019), droughts can augment transmission when open water storage Africa’s rapidly urbanising population increases the demand for provides breeding sites near human settlements, and when flooding freshwater and is occurring in places that already have stretched water enables mosquitoes to proliferate and spread viruses further (Mweya and sanitation infrastructure (Howard et  al., 2016). These conditions, et al., 2017; Bashir and Hassan, 2019). Within Africa’s rapidly growing especially during periods of water scarcity, can reduce the frequency and cities, diseases vectored by urban-adapted Aedes mosquitoes pose a adequacy of hand washing and thereby increase disease transmission. major threat, especially in west Africa (Zahouli et al., 2017; Weetman et al., 2018; Messina et al., 2019). Dengue virus expansion may cause Projected risks explosive outbreaks but the burden of dengue haemorrhagic fever and associated mortality is higher in areas where transmission is already Disruptions in water availability, such as during droughts or infrastructure endemic (Murray et al., 2013). breakdown, will jeopardise access to safe water and adequate sanitation, undermine hygiene practices and increase environmental contamination Projected risks with toxins (Howard et al., 2016; WWF-SA, 2016; Miller and Hutchins, 2017). Populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes and epidemics of dengue and yellow fever and other Aedes-borne viruses Climate change is projected to cause 20,000–30,000 additional are expected to increase, including at high altitudes (Weetman et al., diarrhoeal deaths in children (<15  years old) by mid-century under 2018; Messina et al., 2019; Ryan et al., 2019; Gaythorpe et al., 2020; 1.5°C–2.1°C global warming (WHO, 2014), with west Africa most Mordecai et al., 2020). Aedes albopictus may expand beyond western affected, followed by east, central and southern Africa. Cholera central Africa into Chad, Mali and Burkina Faso by mid-century at outbreaks are anticipated to impact east Africa most severely during >2°C global warming (Kraemer et al., 2019). Shifts projected in Aedes and particularly after ENSO events (Moore et al., 2017b). 1373 Chapter 9 Africa 9 1374 Pathways to impact: diarrhoeal disease Climate hazard Pathways to impact Pathogen exposure Vulnerable population groups Health outcomes Increased reproduction & survival of pathogens in water (Box 3.3) & food sources (5.11; 5.12) Increased heat Use of unsafe sources of drinking water (4.2.6) Increased exposure, to bacterial  General population  Disease, including dehydration Reduced hygiene & food safety (cleaning  & processing food (5.11; 7.2.2.3) (e.g. E. coli, Campylobacter, Infants & children (<5 years) with hospital admission, loss of Salmonella & Shigella, Listeria,  Elderly (>65 years) weight, stunting & death (4.3.3; Decreased precipitation Use of rainwater tanks for irrigation of vegetables  (Box 7.2) V. Cholera), protozoal (e.g. Individuals with co-morbidities 7.2.2.2) Cryptosporidium & Giardia) &  Undernourished individuals (5.12; 9.6.1)  Asymptomatic infection other pathogens (2.4.2.9; 5.11;  Urban residents in overcrowded informal 7.2.2.2; 7.2.2.3) settlements (3.4.8; 4.4.1.3; 6) Increased phytoplankton, copepods & V.  Resource-poor segment of the population Cholera (Box 3.3; 3.5.5) with no or limited access to potable water  Displaced people settled in informal Increased sea temperature settlements (Box 9.7) (Box 7.2) Contamination of food & drinking sources (4.2.6; 4.3.3) with human & animal faeces (7.2.2.3) Shedding of pathogens Increased precipitation & flooding (Box 7.2) Damage or disruption of water and sanitation systems, reducing the quality and quantity of water for drinking and hygiene Storms & extreme weather events (4.3.3) (Box 7.2) Figure 9.33 |  Schematic showing the pathways to diarrhoeal disease impacts in Africa as a result of exposure to climate hazards. Numbers in the figure refer to chapter sections of this report. Diarrhoeal disease Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.6 | Pandemic risk in Africa: COVID-19 and future threats Rapid advances in vaccination and other control measures in high-income countries means that the burden of COVID-19 is increasingly concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, including those in Africa. The extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic is influenced by weather or by future changes in climate remains contested (WMO, 2021). In time, COVID-19 may develop seasonal dynamics (Baker et al., 2020; Kissler et al., 2020) similar to other respiratory infections (Carlson et al., 2020b). Early work interpreted low-reported cases of COVID-19 in Africa as suggesting evidence of a protective climatic effect, but increasing evidence indicates the role of climate is secondary to the timing of disease introduction, the pace of implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and surveillance gaps (Evans et  al., 2020; WMO, 2021). Going forward, testing coverage, reporting, governance, non- pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine distribution and uptake are likely to be far more significant for Africa’s COVID-19 trajectory than climate change. Compounding risks, where climate hazards and natural disasters impair outbreak responses, may disrupt interventions or cause additional deaths (Phillips et al., 2020; Salas et al., 2020). 9 Emerging and future pandemic threats Future influenza pandemics are highly likely, as are regional epidemics and pandemics of novel zoonotic viruses (including coronaviruses and flaviviruses) (high confidence). In the next decades, climate change will reshape the risk landscape for emerging zoonotic threats as wildlife-livestock-human interfaces shift, facilitating the emergence of novel zoonotic threats and spillover of known zoonoses into novel geographies (Carlson et al., 2020a; Mordecai et al., 2020). Characteristics of urban development and level of service provision, for example, crowded living spaces and transport facilities, and access to water and sanitation will influence the transmission of COVID-19 and future disease outbreaks (Wilkinson, 2020). Historically, west and central Africa were considered especially at risk of outbreaks given their high biodiversity, high intensity of human–wildlife contact including wild meat trade, vulnerable health systems and history of Ebola virus disease outbreaks (Paige et al., 2014; Allen et al., 2017; Pigott et al., 2017). However, as the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and COVID-19 pandemics have shown, there are multiple hotspots of viruses with pandemic potential globally, many of which are not in Africa. Thus, labelling African rainforests as unique ‘hotspots’ undermines global health work and pandemic preparedness. 9.10.2.2.2 HIV them at high risk for morbidity and death during extreme heat (Abayomi and Cowan, 2014). Moreover, extreme weather events accompanied by Observed impacts damage to health system infrastructure could compromise the continuity of antiretroviral treatment (Weiser et al., 2010; Pozniak et al., 2020). Although levels of new HIV infections declined sharply during the last decade, still more than a million adults and children become 9.10.2.2.3 Other infectious diseases infected each year (UNAIDS, 2020). Climate influences on HIV are predominately indirect such as through heightened migration due to Poor populations in the western Sahel have the highest burden of climate variability, or extreme weather events leading to increased bacterial meningitis worldwide, with seasonal dynamics driven by the transactional sex to replace lost sources of income. Changes in dry Harmattan winds that transport dust long distances across the climate affect each of the main drivers of HIV transmission in women, continent (Agier et al., 2013; García-Pando et al., 2014). In Nigeria, rising including poverty, inequity and gender-based violence (Burke et  al., temperatures are projected to increase meningitis cases by about 50% for 2015a; Loevinsohn, 2015; Fiorella et al., 2019). 1.8°C global warming (RCP2.6 in 2060–2075), and by almost double for 3.4°C global warming (RCP8.5 in 2060–2075) (Abdussalam et al., 2014). Projected risks Bilharzia is also highly climate sensitive, with its distribution influenced by changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as development, ‘Oscillating’ or ‘circular’ migration for migrant workers in urban and such as the introduction of freshwater projects (e.g., canals, hydroelectric mining centres drove HIV transmission in the 1990s and 2000s (Lurie, dams and irrigation schemes) (Adekiya et al., 2019). 2006), and climate-related displacement may have similar effects (See Box 9.7; Gray and Mueller, 2012; Loevinsohn, 2015; Low et al., 2019). 9.10.2.3 Temperature-related Impacts Food insecurity and nutritional deficiencies, projected to increase with increasingly variable climates, has been shown to increase sexual risk- 9.10.2.3.1 Mortality and morbidity taking and migration, as well as increase susceptibility to other infections (Lieber et  al., 2021). Projected increases in exposure to infectious Observed impacts diseases pose considerable threats to HIV-infected people who may already have compromised immune function. Additionally, reduced lung Emergency department visits and hospital admissions have been function in people with HIV from previous tuberculosis infection may put shown to increase at moderate-to-high temperatures (Bishop-Williams 1375 Chapter 9 Africa 9 1376 Pathways to impact: diarrhoeal disease Climate hazard Pathways to impact Vulnerable population groups Health outcomes Reduced crop yields, (5; 9.12)  General population  Heat stress including from increased  Infants & children (<5 years)  Heat exhaustion evaporation & soil drying (4.2; 9.7.2)  Elderly (>65 years)  Heat stroke   Dehydration Increased heat Increased energy use from sweating Individuals with co-morbidities  & higher metabolic rate Undernourished individuals (5.12; 9.12) Direct heat-related  Cardio-respiratory compromise  Outdoor workers morbidity & mortality  Heat-related symptoms e.g. headache Increased outdoor activities &  Resource-poor segment of the (7.2.4; 9.6.1)  Drowsiness, poor concentration, fatigue environmental exposures (7.2) population with no or limited cooling  Reduced work performance systems  Poor educational performance  Urban residents in overcrowded  Accidents informal settlements (3.4.8; 4.4.1.3; 6)  Mortality  Anxiety, anxiety disorders, depression  Increased aggression  Interpersonal violence including Mental health homicide  (7.2.4; 9.6.1) Suicide  Collective violence  Dehydration  Maternal morbidity, prolonged labour  Preterm birth, stillbirth Poor pregnancy outcomes  Adverse long-term outcomes (7.2.4; 9.6.1)  Heat stress exacerbates heat production by placenta, developing foetus & from additional maternal weight, & uterine contractions during labour Figure 9.34 |  Schematic showing the pathways of impact for heat-related morbidities in Africa as a result of exposure to climate hazards. Numbers in the figure refer to chapter sections of this report. Indirect health impacts of heat are not shown. For example, risk of malnutrition from reduced crop yields or reduced fisheries catches (see Section 9.8.5). Heat-related mortality & morbidity Africa Chapter 9 et  al., 2018; van der Linden et  al., 2019), with increased levels of GHG mitigation is projected to save tens of thousands of lives: mortality recorded on days with raised temperatures in Burkina Faso limiting warming to RCP4.5 (2.5°C) rather than RCP8.5 (4.4°C) at the (Kynast-Wolf et  al., 2010; Diboulo et  al., 2012; Bunker et  al., 2017), end of the century is projected to avoid on average 71 deaths per Ghana (Azongo et  al., 2012), Kenya (Egondi et  al., 2012; Egondi 100,000 people annually across Africa with larger reductions in risk et al., 2015), South Africa (Wichmann, 2017; Scovronick et al., 2018), in north, west, central and parts of east Africa (Figure 9.35). The cost Tanzania (Mrema et al., 2012) and Tunisia (Bettaieb et al., 2010; Leone of mitigating heat stress using energy-intensive cooling methods is et al., 2013). Cause of death most commonly involves cardiovascular expected to be unachievable for many African countries (Parkes et al., diseases (Kynast-Wolf et  al., 2010; Scovronick et  al., 2018), but 2019; see Section 9.9.4). increased incidences of respiratory (Scovronick et  al., 2018), stroke (Longo-Mbenza et al., 1999) and non-communicable diseases (Bunker 9.10.2.3.2 Heat stress in specific settings et al., 2017) have also been linked with heat. Heat stress symptoms are prevalent among people in buildings that Excess death rates from non-optimal temperature in sub-Saharan are poorly ventilated or insulated, or constructed with unsuitable Africa are estimated to be nearly double the global average, with 24% materials (e.g., corrugated metal sheeting). These features are of the more than 5 million annual deaths globally associated with non- common to many structures in Africa, including slums, informal and 9 optimal temperature occurring in Africa (Zhao et al., 2021). The region low-income settlements, as well as schools and healthcare facilities had the world’s highest cold-related excess death ratio and lowest (Bidassey-Manilal et al., 2016; Naicker et al., 2017; Wright et al., 2019). heat-related excess death ratio over the period 2000–2019. However, Temperatures inside these structures can exceed outdoor temperatures during this time, cold-related excess deaths declined more rapidly than by 4°C or more and have large diurnal fluctuations (Mabuya and the increase in heat-related excess deaths, resulting in a net decrease Scholes, 2020). Daily wage labourers and residents of urban informal in the excess death ratio from temperature. settlements are among the most vulnerable to heat stress because of the urban heat island effect, with congestion, and inadequate Recent estimates of the burden of mortality associated with the ventilation, shade, open space and vegetation (Bartlett, 2008) being additional heat exposure from recent human-caused global warming associated with impacts of both hot and cold conditions on public suggest approximately 43.8% of heat-related mortality in South Africa health (Ramin, 2009). Temperature extremes are expected to result in was attributable to human-caused climate change from 1991–2018 relatively more deaths in informal settlements than in other settlement (Vicedo-Cabrera et  al., 2021). In many of South Africa’s 52 districts, types (Scovronick and Armstrong, 2012). this equates to dozens of deaths per year. The elderly and children under 5 years are most vulnerable to heat exposure (Sewe et al., 2015; The urban heat island effect exacerbates current and projected heat Scovronick et al., 2018). stress in Africa’s rapidly growing cities (Mitchell, 2016) and is discussed in more detail in Section 9.9.3. Projected risks Escalating temperatures and longer-duration heatwaves are expected Globally, Africa is predicted to suffer disproportionately from higher to heavily affect workers already exposed to extreme temperatures, temperature-related all-cause mortality from global warming, compared for example, outdoor workers (Kjellstrom et  al., 2018) and miners to temperate northern hemisphere countries (Carleton et al., 2018). The (El-Shafei et al., 2018; Nunfam et al., 2019a; Nunfam et al., 2019b). number of days projected to exceed potentially lethal heat thresholds Vulnerability may also be high for women who cook food for a living, per year reaches 50–150 days in west Africa at 1.6°C global warming, and children who accompany them, due to prolonged exposure to up to 200 days in west Africa and 100–150 days in central Africa and high temperatures (Parmar et  al., 2019). Prisons, commonly poorly parts of coastal east Africa at 2.5°C, and over 200 days for parts of west, ventilated and overcrowded, are also high-risk settings (Van Hout and central and east Africa for >4°C global warming (Mora et al., 2017; see Mhlanga-Gunda, 2019). Sections 9.5.3–7; Figure 9.15). Projected rates of heat-related mortality among people in the Middle East and north Africa who are older than 9.10.2.3.3 Maternal and child health 65 years increase by 8–20 fold in 2070–2099, compared with 1951– 2005, based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (both at >2°C global warming) Exposure to high temperatures during pregnancy has been linked with (Ahmadalipour and Moradkhani, 2018). adverse birth outcomes, including stillbirths or miscarriages (Asamoah et al., 2018) and long-term behavioural and developmental deficiencies Temperature-related mortality across Africa is projected to escalate (Duchoslav, 2017; MacVicar et al., 2017). with global warming. Above 1.5°C the risk of heat-related deaths rises sharply, with at least 15 additional deaths per 100,000 annually 9.10.2.4 Impacts of Extreme Weather across large parts of Africa, reaching 50–180 additional deaths per 100,000 people annually in regions of north, west, and east Africa During extreme conditions, for example, Cyclone Kenneth (Codjoe for 2.5°C global warming, and increasing to 200–600 per 100,000 et  al., 2020) and El Niño 2015–2016 (WHO, 2016; Pozniak et  al., people annually for 4.4°C global warming (Figure 9.35; Carleton et al., 2020), direct physical injury, loss of life, destruction of property and 2018). However, some regions that currently experience cold-related population displacement can occur. Flooding and landslides are mortality (e.g., Lesotho and Ethiopian Highlands) are projected to common after extreme rainfall and are the most frequently described have reduced temperature-related mortality risk from warming. impact of climate variability in Africa’s cities currently, with residents 1377 Chapter 9 Africa Temperature-related mortality risk in Africa with increased global warming Period 2020–2039 Period 2040–2059 Period 2080–2099 Changes in temperature-related annual mortality rates per 100,000 (a) Intermediate emissions (RCP4.5) 451–609 311–450 Additional deaths 176–310 46–175 16–45 1.6°C 2.0°C 2.5°C 11–15 6–10 1–5 0 9 1–5 (b) High emissions (RCP8.5) 6–10 Avoided 11–15 deaths 16–45 46–149 1.7°C 2.5°C 4.4°C 46–80 (c) Change in risk from stronger mitigation efforts (RCP4.5 - RCP8.5) 16–45 Additional deaths 11–15 (increased risk) 6–10 1–5 0 1–5 6–10 Avoided 11–15 deaths (reduced risk) 16–45 46–175 176–310 311–419 Figure 9.35 |  Projected temperature-related mortality risk in Africa with increasing global warming. Maps show changes in mortality rates in deaths per 100,000 for global warming in the years 2020–2039, 2040–2059 and 2080–2099 for (a) intermediate emissions scenario (RCP 4.5); (b) a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5); and (c) showing avoidable deaths due to increased emissions mitigation efforts to achieve a lower global warming level (RCP4.5 rather than RCP8.5). These estimates of climate change impacts on mortality rates include temperature-related impacts only. They account for the benefits of income growth and incremental adaptation to climate change, both of which reduce mortality sensitivity to extreme temperatures. Projections were based on income and demographics from Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 (SSP3), with future adaptation based on adaptation actions observed in the global historical record. The estimates do not include the costs of the behaviours and investments required to achieve such adaptation (Carleton et al., 2018). Areas shown in burgundy in (c) have fewer deaths due to temperature under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. This is because cold is currently the greatest driver of temperature-related deaths in these areas, which is projected to be alleviated with increasing levels of global warming (Zhao et al., 2021). of poorly serviced or informal settlements most vulnerable (Hunter The effects of extreme weather on urban health infrastructure depends et  al., 2020). Post-traumatic stress disorders in affected individuals on the characteristics, location and adaptive capacity of cities (see are common, including in children (Rother, 2020). In rural areas, the Section 9.9.4). resulting damage to health facilities, access routes and transport services can severely compromise health service delivery (WHO, 2016). 1378 Africa Chapter 9 9.10.2.5 Malnutrition Paradoxically, despite growing levels of undernutrition, the incidence of overweight and obesity continues to rise in Africa, particularly in 9.10.2.5.1 Observed impacts children under 5  years from the northern and southern parts of the continent (FAO and ECA, 2018). Diabetes is increasingly prevalent Africa has experienced the greatest impacts of climate change on acute and outcomes may worsen if climate change undermines health food insecurity and malnutrition (FAO and ECA, 2018). Adverse climatic infrastructure and the range of available foods (Keeling et al., 2012; conditions exacerbate the impacts of an unstable global economy, Kula et al., 2013; Chersich and Wright, 2019). conflict and pandemics on food insecurity (AfDB, 2018b; Food Security Information Network (FSIN), 2019; Fore et  al., 2020; see Chapter  5 The relationship between cancer and climate change is complex Section 5.12.4). and indirect. Changing temperature and humidity may alter the distribution of aflatoxin-producing fungi, contaminating food (grains, More than 250 million Africans are undernourished, mostly in central maize) and causing cancer (see Box 5.9 in Chapter 5; Sserumaga et al., and east Africa (FAO et al., 2020), which increases childhood stunting, 2020; Valencia-Quintana et al., 2020). Severe storms and flooding may affects cognition and has trans-generational sequelae (IFPRI, 2016; disrupt wastewater treatment or disposal, potentially contaminating UNICEF et al., 2019). Undernutrition is strongly linked with hot climates drinking water with carcinogenic substances. 9 (Hagos et  al., 2014; Tusting et  al., 2020). In Burkina Faso, low crop yields resulted in around 110 deaths per 10,000 children under 5 years, Areas with low service provision (e.g., informal settlements in Africa) with 72% of this impact attributable to adverse climate conditions in suffer from increased infestations of pests such as flies, cockroaches, the growing season (Belesova et al., 2019). rats, bedbugs and lice, which may be controlled by chemical pesticides (Rother et al., 2020) and may become more prevalent with a changing Increasing incidence and expanded distributions of vector-borne livestock climate (Mafongoya et  al., 2019). Inappropriate pesticide use and diseases (e.g., bluetongue, trypanosomiasis and RVF) in response to disposal cause endocrine disruption and increased incidences of some changes in rainfall and increasing temperatures, undermine food security, cancers (Rother et al., 2020). especially among subsistence farmers (Samy and Peterson, 2016; Caminade et al., 2019). Locust infestations linked with changes in climate 9.10.2.6.1 Mental health and well-being (Salih et al., 2020) are a major risk for food security in Africa. Mental health and well-being are affected by local climate conditions 9.10.2.5.2 Projected risks and are therefore sensitive to climate change (Burke et  al., 2018b; Obradovich et  al., 2018). High temperatures are strongly associated Projected risks for malnutrition in Africa are high (FAO, 2016; see with poor mental health and suicide in South Africa (Kim et al., 2019). Section  9.8.1): 433  million people in Africa are anticipated to be Exposure to extreme heat directly influences emotional control, undernourished by 2030 (FAO et al., 2020) and, compared to 1961– aggression and violent behaviour, escalating rates of interpersonal 1990, 1.4  million additional African children will suffer from severe violence, with homicides rising by as much as 18% in South Africa when stunting by 2050 under 2.1°C global warming (WHO, 2014). In Burkina temperatures are above 30°C compared with temperatures below 20°C Faso, the mortality burden due to low crop yields could double by 2100 (Burke et al., 2015a; Chersich et al., 2019b; Gates et al., 2019). with 1.5°C of global warming (Belesova et  al., 2019). Drought risks will include crop and livestock failures (Ahmadalipour et  al., 2019). Extreme weather events are often severely detrimental to mental health Additionally, increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 will affect (Scheerens et al., 2020), with elevated rates of anxiety, post-traumatic the nutritional quality of C3 plant staples, lowering levels of protein stress disorder and depression in impacted individuals (Schlenker and and minerals like zinc and iron (Myers et al., 2014; Weyant et al., 2018). Lobell, 2010; Nuvey et al., 2020). Youths may be at especially high risk Declining fish catches due to ocean warming, illegal fishing and poor (Barkin et al., 2021). stock management are projected to increase deficiencies of zinc, iron and vitamin A for millions of people across Mozambique, Angola and Loss of livestock from disease or lack of pastures is strongly linked multiple west African countries (see Section 9.8.5; Golden et al., 2016). with poor mental health among farmers (Nuvey et al., 2020). Climate change impacts on mental health among refugees is concerning but 9.10.2.6 Non-communicable Diseases and Mental Health remains under-researched (Matlin et al., 2018). Links between climate change and the environmental risk factors for 9.10.2.7 Air Quality-related Health Impacts non-communicable diseases (NCDs) may be direct (e.g., extreme heat exposure in people with cardiovascular disease) or indirect, such as Links between air quality and climate change are complex (Smith via the global agriculture and food industry (Landrigan et al., 2018). et  al., 2014; Szopa et  al., 2021). Increases in particulate matter These effects are largely unreported for Africa (Amegah et al., 2016), concentrations are driven more by vehicle emissions, solid waste, where the burden of many NCDs is growing rapidly with increasing biomass burning and development (Abera et  al., 2021) than by urbanisation and pollution (Rother, 2020). climate change, and these factors vary widely across regions of the continent (West et al., 2013). Women and children who are exposed Many urban poor populations have unhealthy dietary practices, which to high particulate matter concentrations when cooking indoors and present major risks for obesity, type II diabetes and hypertension. HIV-infected people are more vulnerable to the health impacts of air 1379 Chapter 9 Africa pollution (Abera et al., 2021). Information on the direction of change of RCP4.5), anthropogenic sources of particulate matter are projected to air quality in different African regions attributable to climate change are exceed that produced by wildfires (Knorr et al., 2017). contradictory (Westervelt et al., 2016; Silva et al., 2017). Additionally, much uncertainty remains about interactions between air quality and climate change and relative impacts of different modes of development 9.10.3 Adaptation for Health and Well-being in Africa and climate change on pollutants. However, increasing temperatures combined with a reduction in rainfall are likely to increase particulate In this section, we focus on adaptation actions that are well-documented matter concentrations (Abera et al., 2021), particularly in north Africa or shown to have the potential for substantially improving health or (Westervelt et al., 2016; Silva et al., 2017). well-being. These adaptation options are assessed in Figure 9.36 and Table 9.11. Nevertheless, continued dependence on fossil-fuelled power plants will result in tens of thousands of avoidable deaths due to air pollution by In Africa, adaptive responses have begun to be implemented by 2030 (Marais and Wiedinmyer, 2016), and accelerate climate change. local, national and international entities (Ebi and Otmani Del Barrio, Actions to reduce air pollution can both mitigate climate change and 2017). With strong leadership, these initiatives can be used as an 9 have major co-benefits for health (West et al., 2013; Rao et al., 2016; opportunity for comprehensive, transformative change rather than Markandya et al., 2018; Rauner et al., 2020a; Rauner et al., 2020b) see incremental improvements to existing systems. Adaptation responses also AR6 WGIII, Chapters 3, 4, 8 and 10). Investing in renewable energy are necessarily context specific and can focus on providing services resources rather than reliance on the combustion of fossil fuels would for vulnerable and high-risk populations (Dumenu and Obeng, 2016; mark an important step forward for African population health (Marais Herslund et al., 2016). et al., 2019). This is especially important in South Africa which emits approximately half the total carbon emissions for Africa, ranking 12th Adaptation actions in the health sector range from building resilient in the world for carbon emissions (Mohsin et al., 2019). health systems to preparing responses to health impacts of extreme weather events to reducing effects of increasing temperatures in Dust events in west Africa have severe health impacts (cardiorespiratory residential and occupational settings (Kjellstrom et al., 2016; Chersich and infectious diseases, including meningitis) (Ayanlade et al., 2020) and Wright, 2019). A climate-resilient health system involves functional given the proximity of the Sahara, which produces about half of the and effective health systems (WHO, 2015), national and local policy yearly global mineral dust (de Longueville et al., 2013). Wildfires are plans with resources for implementation, and long- and short-term projected to become the main source of particulate matter in west, communication strategies to raise awareness around climate change central and southern Africa under both the lowest and highest future (Nhamo and Muchuru, 2019). emissions scenarios, whereas, under intermediate scenarios (i.e., SSP3/ Box 9.7 | The health–climate change nexus in Africa The intersections between climate change and human health involve interactions of numerous systems and sectors (Lindley et al., 2019; Yokohata et al., 2019). This complexity means that holistic, transdisciplinary and cross-sectoral (systems) approaches like One Health, EcoHealth and Planetary Health can improve the long-term effectiveness of responses to health risks (Zinsstag, 2012; Whitmee et al., 2015; Nantima et al., 2019). More research is needed to identify sustainable solutions (Rother et al., 2020), as recently re-emphasised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity in its report on the COVID-19 pandemic (IPBES, 2020). The close dependency of many Africans on their livestock and surrounding ecosystems forms a context where integrated health approaches are especially critical for addressing climate change risks to health (Figure Box 9.7.1; Watts et al., 2015; Cissé, 2019). Integrated approaches to health in Africa can deliver multiple benefits for humans and ecosystems For example, rather than addressing micronutrient deficiencies with supplements, which may not be accepted culturally and can be disrupted by stockouts or similar, addressing nutrient deficiencies in staple crops by selecting or breeding more nutritious varieties (e.g., orange-fleshed sweet potatoes or ‘golden rice’ for vitamin A deficiency) may prove to be more sustainable options (Datta et al., 2003; Nair et al., 2016; Laurie et al., 2018; Oduor et al., 2019; Stokstad, 2019). Additionally, some micro- or macronutrient deficiencies and food insecurities may be improved by addressing the depletion of soils through better management, including the incorporation of holistic, sustainable principles, such as those promoted by agroforestry or regenerative agriculture (Rhodes, 2017; Elevitch et al., 2018; LaCanne and Lundgren, 2018; Chapter 5 Section 5.12.4). 1380 Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.7 (continued) Interlinkage between human, ecosystem and animal health Food insecurity, malnutrition Reduced provisioning, pollination, seed dispersal Animal starvation Reduced access to phytomedicines / Ecosystem Health traditional remedies Sections 9.6 9 and Chapters 2, 3, 5 Reduced regulation Loss of ecosystem Reduction in quantity services1, 2, 3 of air and and quality of feed Increased water quality and forage4, 7 human-wildlife-livestock interaction Deforestation5, 6 Changing disease Human Health distributions (incl. emerging Animal Health Section 9.10 and Chapter 7 & zoonotic Section 9.8 and Chapter 5 diseases)3 Cardio-respiratory and Increased diarrhoeal diseases chance of spillover diseases in people and livestock Pandemics Increased antimicrobial use Worsening livestock health4, 7 Antimicrobial resistance Reduced income Reduced livestock products & services7 Impaired mental health & wellbeing Food insecurity, malnutrition Synergy ecosystem Synergy ecosystem Synergy ecosystem, Synergy human and human heath and animal heath human, animal heath and animal heath Figure Box 9.7.1 |  Human, ecosystem and animal health are intimately interlinked, and require transdisciplinary approaches such as One Health, EcoHealth and Planetary Health for effective, sustainable, long-term management. This schematic shows some examples of these interlinkages, and how they impact human health, highlighting the complex interactions and the importance of holistic, systems approaches to health interventions, including for climate change adaptation. Supporting literature: (1) (Egoh et al., 2012); (2) (Wangai et al., 2016); (3) (Failler et al., 2018); (4) (Ifejika Speranza, 2010); (5) (Brancalion et al., 2020); (6) (Bloomfield et al., 2020); (7) (Rojas-Downing et al., 2017). 1381 Chapter 9 Africa Many health conditions associated with climate change are not new, Climate and health adaptation indicators are required for Africa and existing evidence-based interventions can be modified to address to strengthen institutional capacity for risk monitoring and early shifting disease patterns (Ebi and Otmani Del Barrio, 2017). Adaptation warning systems, emergency preparedness and response, vulnerability options can build on a long tradition of community-based services in reduction measures, shock-responsive and long-term social protection, Africa (Ebi and Otmani Del Barrio, 2017). Indeed, strengthening many and planning and implementing resilience-building measures (FAO of the services already provided (e.g., childhood vaccinations and and ECA, 2018). National-level progress is assessed through the vector control) will help curtail emerging burdens of climate-sensitive Lancet Countdown indicators (Watts et  al., 2018), however, district- conditions. However, a disproportionate focus on emerging zoonotic and local-level indicators are needed to measure levels of vulnerability and vector-borne viruses could undermine climate change adaptation and response effectiveness at a local level, and for informing planning efforts in Africa if it shifts the focus away from health system local service delivery. Potential indicators include monitoring the strengthening and leaves few resources for addressing other health number of excess health conditions during extreme heat events. impacts of climate change. Indoor temperature monitoring in sentinel houses and health facilities is a related indicator (Ebi and Otmani Del Barrio, 2017), linked with Core components of an adaptation response include rapid impact threshold temperature levels at which health impacts occur, and the 9 packages (e.g., mass drug administration for schistosomiasis), education ability of the built environment to protect against these impacts (e.g., of women and direct poverty alleviation (Bailey et  al., 2019). Where for heatwaves). droughts are more frequent and rainfall patterns have shifted, adaptation support can be provided for strategies developed by communities, Measuring climate-health linkages is challenging due to the considerable including the adaptation of livelihoods and diversification of crops and diversity of the exposures, impacts and outcomes, as well as constraints livestock (Mbereko et al., 2018; Bailey et al., 2019). Continued efforts in key technical areas. Increasing our understanding of this diversity through partnerships, blending adaptation and disaster risk reduction, and how this is influenced by adaptative changes is a major knowledge and long-term international financing are needed to bridge humanitarian gap. This could be facilitated through a pan-African database of climate and sustainable development priorities (Lindley et  al., 2019; Cross- and other environmental exposures, together with real-time statistical Chapter Box HEALTH in Chapter 7). support for analyses of climate and health associations. 9.10.3.1 Risk Assessment and Warning Systems 9.10.3.2 Community Engagement Improved institutional capacity for risk monitoring and early warning Increased awareness can facilitate community engagement and systems is key to support emergency preparedness and responsiveness action (see Section 9.4.3). In Ghana, for example, local communities in Africa, as well as shock-responsive and long-term social protection understand the climate hazards that drive outbreaks of meningitis (FAO and ECA, 2018). Climate risk assessments grounded in evidence and adapt accordingly by improving housing to limit heat and and locally appropriate technologies are important for identifying exposure, changing funeral practices during outbreaks, increased priority actions, the scale of intervention needed and high-risk vaccination uptake and afforestation (Codjoe and Nabie, 2014). geographical areas and populations. Potential tools include those Similarly, participation in community organisations improved child developed by WHO (Ceccato et  al., 2018) and the Strategic Tool for nutrition in vulnerable rural households in Eswatini (Anchang et al., Analysis of Risk (Ario et al., 2019). 2019). Interventions specifically targeting women are beneficial for food security, although they may be undermined by harmful gender Warning systems that predict seasonal to intra-seasonal climate risks norms in communities that are patriarchal, led by chiefs or have high could assist in improving response times to extreme weather events rates of gender-based violence (Jaka and Shava, 2018; Kita, 2019; (such as droughts, flooding or heat waves) and shifts in infectious Masson et al., 2019). The BRACED project in Burkina Faso and Ethiopia diseases. Weather and other types of forecasting provide an advanced specifically adopted a gender-transformative approach as an integral warning—a central tenet of disaster risk reduction (Funk et al., 2017; part of resilience building (McOmber et al., 2019). Improving ‘climate Okpara et  al., 2017a; Lumbroso, 2018). Models encompassing each literacy’ could empower youth, women and men to be active citizens in component of the human–animal–environmental interface, including promoting adherence of governments to international agreements in disease surveillance in humans and animals and remote sensing of climate change (Mudombi et al., 2017; Chersich et al., 2019a). vegetation indexes, water and soil can be used to project patterns of zoonose outbreaks (UNDP, 2016; Bashir and Hassan, 2019; Durand 9.10.3.3 Health Financing et al., 2019). Early warning systems may help better prepare for these and other forms of infectious disease outbreaks (Thomson et al., 2006) Poor and low-income households often are not able to afford high but adaptation is possible in the absence of statistical tools through out-of-pocket costs for medical care, or it consumes a large portion of vaccination and surveillance, for example. their income. As a result, without financial aid, peoples’ health needs may not be met after a climate shock (Hallegatte and Rozenberg, Surveillance systems for diseases and vectors are well-established in 2017). Microfinance (the provision of small-scale financial products many parts of Africa (Ogden, 2017). However, many data gaps remain, to low income and otherwise disadvantaged groups by financial especially in monitoring climate-sensitive conditions such as diarrheal- institutions) and disaster contingency funds can serve to reduce health and arbovirus-related diseases, and morbidity and mortality stemming risks of climate change for low-income communities (Agrawala and from heat exposure (Ogden, 2017; Buchwald et al., 2020). Carraro, 2010; Ozaki, 2016), as can different forms of insurance and 1382 Africa Chapter 9 disaster relief (Fenton et al., 2015; Dowla, 2018). Unconditional cash 9.10.3.4.2 Adaptation to reduce diarrhoeal disease transfers in Kenya, Uganda and Zambia assisted vulnerable groups to absorb the negative impacts of climate-related shocks or stress and to Reducing pathogen concentrations in water and across food chains is prepare for these (Lawlor et al., 2019; Ulrichs et al., 2019). Based on fundamental for controlling diarrhoeal diseases (van den Berg et al., several case studies in Africa, the Food and Agriculture Organization 2019). Diarrhoea prevention and treatment post-disaster, encompass recommends a ‘Cash+’ approach which combines cash transfers with social mobilisation campaigns, water treatment, enhanced surveillance, productive assets, inputs or technical training to address the needs and vaccination and treatment centres for cholera (Cambaza et  al., of vulnerable households in emergency situations, and enhance 2019) and typhoid (Neuzil et al., 2019). livelihoods potential, income generation and food security (FAO, 2017). New economic models have been implemented in north Africa, Improved WASH requires robust water and sanitation infrastructure focused on poor households, youth and women that enable access to (Duncker, 2017; Kohlitz et  al., 2017; Venema and Temmer, 2017) and credit and support the implementation of policies that balance cash technological adaptations (Gabert, 2016; van Wyk et al., 2017), such as and food crops, social safety nets and social protection (Mumtaz and waterless on-site sanitation (Sutherland et al., 2021), diversification of Whiteford, 2017; Narayanan and Gerber, 2017; see also Sections 9.4; water sources (e.g., rainwater harvesting (Lasage and Verburg, 2015) 9.8; 9.11). and groundwater abstraction (MacDonald et al., 2012)), and sharing of 9 best practices across the continent (WASH Alliance International, 2015; 9.10.3.4 Disease-specific Adaptations Jack et al., 2016; see also Section 9.7.3; Chapter 4 Section 4.6.4). Hand hygiene can be improved through the creation of handwashing stations, 9.10.3.4.1 Adaptation to prevent malaria increased access to soap and simple technologies such as the foot- operated Tippy taps (Coultas and Iyer, 2020; Mbakaya et al., 2020). Increasing distribution and coverage of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets, improved diagnostic tests and increasing health service 9.10.3.4.3 Adaptation to reduce conditions related to heat exposure access could mitigate the impacts of climate change on malaria if aligned with the predicted or actual burden of malaria (medium Reducing morbidity and mortality during extreme heat events confidence) (Kienberger and Hagenlocher, 2014; Thwing et al., 2017). requires changes in behaviour and health promotion initiatives, Understanding seasonal shifts in malaria transmission suitability as a health system interventions and modifications to the built and result of climate change can guide more targeted seasonal public health natural environment. Health promotion initiatives include promoting responses and better planning for different types of management and adequate hydration and simple cooling measures, such as drinking control interventions based on the impact. For example, an increase cold liquids, water sprays and raising awareness of the symptoms in the number of months where climate conditions are suitable for and importance of heat stress, including heatstroke (Aljawabra and mosquito survival will require public health responses for an extended Nikolopoulou, 2018). Adaptive measures are especially important period of time (Ryan et al., 2020). for high-risk groups such as outdoor workers, the elderly, pregnant women and infants. Health systems interventions may include In malaria-endemic areas, repeated malaria infections can provide early warning systems, heat health regulation and health workers temporary immunity, which reduces new clinical cases (Laneri et al., providing cooling interventions, such as supplying cool water or 2015; Yamana et  al., 2016). Conversely, where people have little or fans, during heat waves. Changes to the built environment include no immunity, exposure to malaria can lead to epidemics (Semakula painting the roofs of houses white and improving ventilation during et al., 2017a; Ryan et al., 2020). Pregnant women and infants remain extreme heat (Codjoe et al., 2020), the use of insulation materials or at risk of severe malaria, regardless of immunity status. Vector control altering the building materials used for the construction of housing and case management capacity should be rapidly scaled up in newly to improve their ability to moderate indoor temperatures (Mathews affected areas where risks for epidemics are high and populations are et al., 1995; Makaka and Meyer, 2006). especially vulnerable. Poverty-alleviation initiatives underpin malaria control as the malaria burden is strongly tied to socioeconomic status 9.10.3.4.4 Adaptation to prevent malnutrition (Huldén et al., 2014; Degarege et al., 2019). Transformative adaptation requires integration of resilience and Contextualised risk studies on local drivers of transmission are still mitigation across all parts of the food system including production, supply lacking and present a major gap in developing appropriate adaptation chains, social aspects and dietary choices (IPCC, 2019a). Adaptation to strategies (high confidence). Progress has been made identifying and prevent malnutrition goes hand-in-hand with adaptation to prevent ranking vulnerability and exposure indicators (Protopopoff et  al., food insecurity, as is discussed in Section 9.8.3; Chapter 5 Section 5.12.5. 2009; Onyango et al., 2016a), however, better linking of biophysical and socioeconomic determinants of risk in integrated assessment Urban agriculture and forestry can improve nutrition and food models is needed (Caminade et  al., 2019; Zermoglio et  al., 2019), security, household income and mental health of urban farmers as are applied approaches to develop adaptation strategies for risk while mitigating against some of the impacts of climate change, like management (Leedale et  al., 2016; Onyango et  al., 2016b; Sadoine flooding and landslides (by stabilising the soil and reducing runoff, for et al., 2018). example), heat (by providing shade and through evapotranspiration) and diversifying food sources in case of drought (Zezza and Tasciotti, 2010; Lwasa et al., 2014; Battersby and Hunter-Adams, 2020). 1383 Chapter 9 Africa Adaptation options across multiple sectors have potential for reducing risk across multiple health outcomes, considering their potential to reduce vulnerability, and potential barriers to implementation Health outcome/benefit Requires Non- Food- and sensitivity and communicable Heat- Vector- water- Positive consideration diseases related Infectious borne borne Response (NCDs) illnesses diseases diseases diseases Nutrition outcomes of cultural and Potential for vulnerable traditional category Adaptation options risk reduction populations practices Mainstreaming climate change into all health Policy policies x x x x x development Occupational setting interventions (labour laws; avoiding heat during the day; education re x x adaptations) Local knowledge strengthening and education x x x x Education and Community, community health workers, and awareness leadership resilience x x 9 Teaching of climate change risks and behavioural changes in schools and universities x x Health systems Access to healthcare x x x x x x and primary Universal Health Coverage, including of healthcare services for climate-related diseases x x x x x x services Infectious disease surveillance, early warning, outbreak response and control x x Heat health plans x x Vulnerability assessments x x x x x Surveillance, Intervention studies x x x risk Risk assessments x x x x x x assessments, Early warning systems forecasting/disaster monitoring, management for smallholder farmers x x x x and research Disaster Preparedness x x x x x x Health information systems for climate-related diseases x x x x x x Surveillance of health and environmental factors x x x x x x Improved management of environmental determinants of health (water quality; waste x x x x x and sanitation; air quality) Strengthening of health systems and Resource management infrastructure against threat of extreme weather x x x x x x events, and for post-disaster recovery Transport (sustainable; public) (infrastructure) x x Sustainable land use, forestry, water management x x x x x Sustainable farming x x x x x Solar power/biogas for electricity x Tree and seed planting x x x x Vector control Improved housing, including painting roofs white x x x x and disease prevention Insecticide-treated bed nets x Indoor residual spraying x Genetic modification x Key for sectors involved in each response category, and level of confidence (based on the literature) Confidence Policy, governments, environmental health practitioners, community High Forestry Medium Agriculture, terrestrial Low Indigenous and local knowledge Water and sanitation Weather and climate services Research, innovation and development Figure 9.36 |  Adaptation options across multiple non-health sectors have potential for reducing risk for multiple health outcomes, considering their potential to reduce vulnerability. Reduced risk for health may result from targeted actions or as a result of co-benefits (see Table SM9.8 for a full list of references). 1384 Africa Chapter 9 Table 9.11 |  Co-benefits, barriers and enablers of adaptation responses to climate change impacts on human health in Africa (see Table SM9.9 for a full list of references). Inter-sectoral trade-offs and/ Response category Co-benefits Enablers Barriers or drawbacks Policies and plans that facilitate service delivery Willingness of policymakers; and guide national and international funding; political support; politically Lack of implementation; Policy development decreased number of work hours lost; improved willing environment; inter-sectoral poor governance work performance, increased productivity collaboration Guarantee of sustained funding; Lack of implementation; political support; politically Education and Promotion of sustainable living and circular historical and willing environment; increased awareness economy colonisation-related accessibility of learning insensitivities institutions Increased greenhouse gas emissions Health systems and Capacity building in communities; buffered from building health infrastructure; Guarantee of sustained funding; Corruption and fraudulent primary healthcare economic impact of outbreaks/disasters; job increased energy demand; decreased political support; politically willing activities around resource services creation productivity and increased work environment allocation 9 hours lost due to waiting times Requires effective institutional Surveillance, risk Evidence to improve adaptation response; fast arrangements and inter-sectoral May be limited by assessments, post-disaster recovery; increased awareness collaboration; guarantee to uncertainty in modelled monitoring and and disease prevention; improved health system sustained funding; requires skills predictions and thresholds research functioning post-disasters development Improved health system functioning post-disasters; capacity building in communities; Guarantee of sustained funding; promotes economic growth/stability; increases Potential to increase energy demand; political support; politically willing Corruption and fraudulent the tourism potential of the area; increased increased crowding/ population environment; requires effective Resource management activities around resource accessibility/mobility of the community; density; land use; microclimate and institutional arrangements and allocation reduced land degradation, desertification and ecosystem disruption inter-sectoral collaboration; bush encroachment; food security; decreased requires skills development emissions Increased GHG; decreased Decreased mortality; improved work biodiversity; environmental impacts Guarantee to sustained funding; Last-mile access; cost per Vector control and performance; increased productivity; improved of production, packaging, and funding and resources; future capita and capacity for disease prevention mental health delivery; potentially detrimental to planning or retrofit required service delivery health The health sector needs to collaborate and coordinate adaptation had not occurred (Diffenbaugh and Burke, 2019), although impacts activities with other sectors, as well as civil society and international vary substantially across countries (see Figure 9.37). As such, global agencies, to engage communities in health promotion (Irwin et al., warming has increased economic inequality between temperate, 2006; Commission of Social Determinants of Health, 2008; Braveman northern Hemisphere countries and those in Africa (Diffenbaugh and and Gottlieb, 2014). The importance of social determinants of Burke, 2019). Warming also leads to differential economic damages health, such as socioeconomic status, education and the physical within Africa (Baarsch et al., 2020). One estimate found a 1°C increase in environment in which people live and work and their consideration 20-year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage during development are highlighted in Chapter 7 (see Sections 7.1.6; points, with the greatest impacts in Central African Republic, DRC and 7.4.2) Zimbabwe (Abidoye and Odusola, 2015). Changes in rainfall patterns also influence individual and national incomes. Had total rainfall not declined between 1960 and 2000, the gap between African GDP and 9.11 Economy, Poverty and Livelihoods that of the rest of the developing world would be 15–40% smaller than today, with the largest impacts in countries heavily dependent on 9.11.1 Observed Impacts of Climate Change on African agriculture and hydropower (Barrios et al., 2010). Economies and Livelihoods Aggregate macroeconomic impacts manifest through many channels 9.11.1.1 Economic Output and Growth (Carleton et  al., 2016). Macroeconomic evidence suggests aggregate impacts occurred largely through losses in agriculture with a smaller role Increased average temperatures and lower rainfall have reduced for manufacturing (Barrios et al., 2010; Burke et al., 2015b; Acevedo et al., economic output and growth in Africa, with larger negative impacts 2017). Sector-specific analyses confirm that declines in productivity of than other regions of the world (Abidoye and Odusola, 2015; Burke food crops, commodity crops and overall land productivity contribute to et al., 2015a; Acevedo et al., 2017; Kalkuhl and Wenz, 2020). In one lower macroeconomic performance under rising temperatures (Schlenker estimate, GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African and Lobell, 2010; Bezabih et al., 2011; Jaramillo et al., 2011; Lobell et al., countries than it would be if human-caused global warming since 1991 2011; Adhikari et  al., 2015). Labour supply and productivity declines 1385 Chapter 9 Africa Observed aggregate economic impacts and projected risks from climate change in Africa (a) Percentage change in GDP per capita (b) Projected percentage due to observed climate change (1991–2010) decrease in GDP per capita Mauritania for 4°C global warming Mali compared to a scenario Niger with no global warming Sudan Chad after 2010 Burkina Faso Djibouti Percentage 90–92% DRC decrease Côte d'Ivoire in GDP 80–89% per capita Guinea 70–79% Nigeria 60–69% Republic of Congo >5% Senegal No data 9 Sierra Leone Ghana Gambia Benin (c) Percentage change in Cameroon GDP per capita from limiting Togo global warming to 1.5°C Guinea-Bissau Mozambique rather than 2°C Liberia Comoros Central African Republic Percentage 20% Malawi 10% Gabon Namibia 0 Angola -15% Botswana Uganda -30% Zambia No data Tanzania Rwanda Burundi Egypt (d) Probability of economic Equatorial Guinea benefits from limiting global Mauritius warming to 1.5°C Kenya Zimbabwe rather than 2°C Ethiopia Madagascar Swaziland 100 Tunisia Probability Cape Verde 75 South Africa Algeria 50 Morocco 25 Lesotho 0 -30% -20% -10% 0 10% No data Figure 9.37 |  Observed aggregate economic impacts and projected risks from climate change in Africa. (a) Estimated effect of human-caused climate change on GDP per capita for 48 African countries between 1991 and 2010. (b) Projected effect on GDP per capita of global warming of ~4°C by 2100 compared to economic growth with no further global warming after 2010. (c) Projected percentage increase in GDP per capita of holding global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C above pre-industrial level. (d) Probability of realising any economic benefits by holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C. Data sources: Burke et al. (2015b); (2018a); Diffenbaugh and Burke (2019). in manufacturing, industry, services and daily wage labour have been agricultural drought (Hlalele et al., 2016). Drought and extreme heat observed in other regions (Graff Zivin and Neidell, 2014; Somanathan events have also reduced tourism revenues in Africa (Section  9.6.3). et al., 2015; Day et al., 2019; Nath, 2020) and contribute to aggregate Infrastructure damage and transport disruptions from adverse climate economic declines, countering aggregate poverty reduction strategies events reduce access to services and growth opportunities (Chinowsky and other SDGs (Satterthwaite and Bartlett, 2017; Day et al., 2019). In a et al., 2014). In global data sets including Africa, tropical cyclones have case study of a rural town in South Africa, over 80% of businesses (both been shown to have large and long-lasting negative impacts on GDP formal and informal) lost over 50% of employees and revenue due to growth (Hsiang and Jina, 2014). 1386 Africa Chapter 9 9.11.1.2 Human Capital Development and Education 2015b). Depending on the future socioeconomic scenario, this could increase global inequality and leave some African countries poorer Investments in human capital, particularly education, are critical for than at present (Burke et  al., 2015b). Inequalities between African socioeconomic development and poverty reduction providing valuable countries are projected to widen under climate change, with negative skills and expanding labour market opportunities. Much progress has impacts estimated to be largest in west and east Africa (Baarsch et al., been made in improving education access, however, in sub-Saharan 2020). While negative impacts across African economies are highly Africa, 32% of children, adolescents and youth (~97 million people) likely under climate change, precise magnitudes are debated in the remain out of school (UNESCO Institute of Statistics, 2018). Climate literature. Alternative statistical analyses suggest a 12% reduction variability and change can undermine educational attainment with of GDP per capita by 2100 under RCP8.5 across African countries negative impacts on later life earning potential and adaptive capacity relative to a future without climate change (Kahn et al., 2021), while to future climate change (Figure 9.11; Lutz et al., 2014). computable general equilibrium models generate smaller damages as well, ranging from 3.8% reduction across sub-Saharan Africa in 2060 Several studies indicate that experiencing low rainfall, warming under warming of 2.5°C (Dellink et  al., 2019) to 12% across all of temperatures or extreme weather events reduce education attainment Africa in 2100 under warming of 5°C (SSP4) (Takakura et al., 2019). and that future climate change may reduce children’s school participation, 9 particularly for agriculturally dependent and poor urban households. In Substantial avoided economic damages to African countries are west and central Africa, experiencing lower-than-average rainfall during projected from ambitious, near-term global mitigation limiting global early life is associated with up to 1.8 fewer years of completed schooling warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels (high confidence). in adolescence, while more rainfall and milder temperatures during the Increased economic damage forecasts for Africa under high emissions main agricultural season are positively associated with educational scenarios start diverging rapidly from low emissions scenarios by the attainment for boys and girls in rural Ethiopia (Randell and Gray, 2016; 2030s (Baarsch et al., 2020). Across nearly all African countries, GDP Randell and Gray, 2019). In Uganda, low rainfall reduced primary per capita is projected to be at least 5% higher by 2050 and 10–20% school enrolment by 5% for girls (Björkman-Nyqvist, 2013), and in higher by 2100 if global warming is held to 1.5°C versus 2°C (Burke Malawi, in utero drought exposure was associated with delayed school et al., 2018a; Baarsch et al., 2020) (Figure 9.37). The probability of this entry among boys (Abiona, 2017). In rural Zimbabwe, experiencing positive gain to GDP per capita from achieving 1.5°C versus 2°C is drought conditions during the first few years of life was associated with reported as close to 100% (Burke et al., 2018a). While these estimates fewer grades of completed schooling in adolescence, which translates rely on temperature and rainfall-driven damages, SLR also poses a risk into a 14% reduction in lifetime earnings (Alderman et al., 2006). In for Africa. By 2050, damages from SLR across sub-Saharan Africa could Cameroon, warming temperatures have negatively affected plantain reach 2–4% of GDP, depending on the socioeconomic, adaptation and yields, which in turn is linked to lower educational attainment (Fuller emissions scenario (Parrado et al., 2020). et  al., 2018). One suggested mechanism underlying the relationship between climate and schooling is that adverse climatic conditions Heat stress is projected to reduce working hours and work capacity can reduce income among farming households, leading them to pull under climate change, with among the largest declines in sub-Saharan children out of school (Randell and Gray, 2016; Marchetta et al., 2019). Africa and for workers in vulnerable occupation groups, such as those Other potential mechanisms are poor harvests from droughts or supply working outdoors (Kjellstrom et al., 2014; 2016; de Lima et al., 2021; interruptions from extreme weather events leading to undernutrition Chapter 5). Global warming of 3°C is projected to reduce labour among young children, negatively affecting cognitive development and capacity in agriculture by 30–50% in sub-Saharan Africa (relative to schooling potential (Alderman et al., 2006; Bartlett, 2008). the baseline in 1986–2005) (de Lima et al., 2021). These effects lead to substantial aggregate losses, for example, in west Africa, labour More research is needed on climate change impacts on education productivity impacts under a 3°C temperature increase are estimated in Africa. This information can help ensure families keep children in to cost up to 8% of GDP (Roson and Sartori, 2016). Manufacturing school amid climate-related income shocks. For example, in Mexico, a productivity across Africa is projected to decline under RCP8.5 by conditional cash transfer programme mitigated the negative effect of 0–15% by 2080–2099, with the largest effects in the DRC, Ethiopia, natural disasters on school attendance (de Janvry et al., 2006). Somalia, Mozambique and Malawi (Nath, 2020). Large risks to road, rail and water infrastructure are projected from 9.11.2 Projected Risks of Climate Change for African climate change with substantial economic cost implications (see Economies and Livelihoods Section 9.9.3; Box 9.5). Future warming will have negative consequences for economic growth in Africa, relative to a future without additional climate 9.11.3 Informality change and assuming current levels of adaptation (high confidence) (Dell et  al., 2012; 2015a; Burke et al., 2015b; Acevedo et al., 2017; Aggregate GDP data capture formal economic activity but informal Baarsch et  al., 2020). Statistically based empirical analyses project employment is the main source of employment in Africa, accounting that global warming of 2.3°C by 2050 could lower GDP per capita for 85.8% of all employment (71.9%, excluding agriculture), which across sub-Saharan Africa by 12% (SSP2) (Baarsch et al., 2020) and is 21.4% higher than the global average (ILO, 2018b). Estimates of 80% for warming >4°C by 2100 (SSP5, 75% for MENA) (Burke et al., national levels of informal employment range from 30% in South 1387 Chapter 9 Africa Africa, to 94.6% in Burkina Faso (ILO, 2018b), with high variability Schumacher, 2019). Nevertheless, climate change impacts on poverty within countries such as South Africa and Nigeria (Etim and Daramola, in Africa will depend on how socioeconomic development unfolds over 2020). Informal employment is a greater source of employment for the coming decades (medium confidence) (Rozenberg and Hallegatte, women than for men in sub-Saharan Africa and young and old have 2015; Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017; Henseler and Schumacher, especially high rates of informal employment: 94.9% of persons 2019). Climate change by 2030 is projected to push 39.7  million between ages 15 and 24 in employment and 96% of persons aged 65 Africans into extreme poverty3 under a baseline scenario of delayed and older (ILO, 2018b). and non-inclusive growth, with food prices acting as the dominant channel of impact, but this number is cut roughly in half under an Informal sector impacts are omitted from GDP-based impacts inclusive economic growth scenario (Rozenberg and Hallegatte, 2015; projections. Yet, informal sector activity and small to medium-sized Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017; Jafino et al., 2020). enterprises can be highly exposed to climate extremes, as they are often located in low-lying areas, coastal areas, sloped or other hazardous People in Africa are disproportionately employed in highly climate- zones (Thorn et al., 2015; Satterthwaite et al., 2020). Businesses and sensitive sectors: 55–62% of the sub-Saharan African workforce is individuals in the informal sector, including construction workers, employed in agriculture and, although between 90–95% of cropland 9 domestic workers, street vendors and transport workers, often cannot is rainfed (Woodhouse et al., 2017; ILO, 2018a; International Institute operate during climate shocks due to interruptions in transportation of Water Management, 2019; World Bank, 2020c), there has been an and commodity flows and, without the ability to insure against risk, expansion of small-scale ‘farmer-led irrigation’ (Woodhouse et  al., struggle to recover assets from extreme events such as flooding, 2017). Agricultural GDP also appears more strongly affected by landslides and waterlogging (Chen, 2014; Thorn et al., 2015; Roy et al., increasing temperatures than non-agricultural GDP, implying livelihood 2018a). Women are overrepresented in the more poorly remunerated diversification out of agriculture may help minimise future economic sections of the informal economy (Satterthwaite et al., 2020). damage (Bezabih et al., 2011; Burke et al., 2015b; Acevedo et al., 2017; Deryugina and Hsiang, 2017), although such workforce reallocation There is scope for governments to better harness the role of the requires careful management and planning depending on the overall informal sector in mitigation and adaptation (Douxchamps et al., 2015; livelihood portfolios, type of farmer and profitability (Stringer et  al., Satterthwaite et al., 2020). Multi-level governance that includes informal 2020). De-agrarianisation can feed urbanisation, which may exacerbate service providers, such as informal water and sanitation networks, into inequality within and between countries (Stringer et al., 2020). planned adaptation programmes can increase climate resilience, in part because these networks can respond with more flexibility than hard Changes in trade patterns may help mitigate projected aggregate infrastructure projects (Satterthwaite et al., 2020; Peirson and Ziervogel, economic losses by reallocating agricultural production abroad and 2021). Climate risk is often concentrated in urban informal settlements encouraging economic diversification toward less affected sectors. (Section  9.9.4). Here, informal land markets influence development Temperature increases have been shown to lower agriculture and patterns and can help ensure adherence to building codes to ensure manufacturing exports with especially large declines in poor countries safety of informally built structures at high risks of landslides and floods (Jones and Olken, 2010; Roberts and Schlenker, 2013). Further, imports and enforce compliance with regulations relating to planning and land of agricultural products are projected to rise across most of Africa by use (Thorn et  al., 2015; Satterthwaite et  al., 2020). Improving land 2080–2099 under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), with increases management practices of charcoal producers and artisanal gold miners, ranging from ~30% of GDP in the Central African Republic to ~5% combined with appropriate alternative livelihood and energy sources, of GDP in South Africa and Nigeria, although some countries will can reduce emissions and increase resilience (e.g., reduce erosion and experience increases in net agricultural exports (Nath, 2020). While sedimentation, increase water infiltration) and benefit health (Atteridge, these reallocation effects may be large, current evidence is mixed 2013; Paz et al., 2015; Macháček, 2019; Barenblitt et al., 2021; Eniola, regarding whether such adjustment of production will dampen or 2021). Providing concessional loans, commercial financing or equity amplify overall social costs of climate change in Africa (Costinot et al., investment to informal brick makers can boost delivery of low emission 2012; Bren d’Amour et al., 2016; Wenz and Levermann, 2016; Nath, social housing while the use of crop residues or renewable energy for 2020), as food prices are projected to rise by 2080–2099 across all brick making can replace wood biomass and reduce pressure on forests African countries under a scenario with high challenges to mitigation (Alam, 2006; Paz et al., 2015). and adaptation (SSP3 and RCP8.5), with the largest price effects (up to 120%) experienced in Chad, Niger and Sudan (Nath, 2020). Moreover, reallocating production of agriculture abroad could be maladaptive if 9.11.4 Climate Change Adaptation to Reduce it leads to decline or replacement of traditional sectors by industrial Vulnerability, Poverty and Inequality and service sectors, which could lead to land abandonment, food insecurity and loss of traditional practices and cultural heritage (Thorn High temperature-related income losses have been observed in both et al., 2020; Gebre and Rahut, 2021; Nyiwul, 2021). low- and high-income countries, suggesting optimistic economic development trajectories may not substantially reduce climate change African countries have high inequality: the average within-country impacts on aggregate economic performance in Africa (low confidence) share of income accruing to the top 10% of households was estimated (Burke et  al., 2015b; Deryugina and Hsiang, 2017; Henseler and at 50% for 2019 (Robilliard, 2020). However, analysis of INDCs across 54 3 Extreme poverty is defined using a consumption poverty line at USD 1.25 per day, using 2005 purchasing power parity exchange rates. 1388 Africa Chapter 9 African countries suggests current climate policies do not, on average, shocks (Castells-Quintana et al., 2018). Poor households may reduce risk target social inequality in energy, water and food security; proposed or aid recovery by cooperating with other households in their community mitigation and adaptation actions fell about 23% for every 1% rise to adapt collectively to climate change, for example, through informal in social inequality across these sectors (Nyiwul, 2021). In contrast, insurance networks (Paul et al., 2016; Wuepper et al., 2018). Prioritising adaptation actions can be designed in ways that actively work towards poor households for interventions including social protection, EbA, reducing inequality, whether gender, income, employment, education universal healthcare, climate-smart buildings and agriculture, flexible or otherwise (Andrijevic et al., 2020). work hours under extreme heat and early warning systems will increase adaptation to climate shocks (Section  9.6.4; Chapter 6; Angula and In rural Africa, poor and female-headed households face greater Menjono, 2014; Moosa and Tuana, 2014; Hallegatte et al., 2016; Day livelihood risks from climate hazards (high confidence). Women et al., 2019). Pro-poor policies that link mitigation and adaptation, such often constitute a high proportion of the informal workforce and as using renewable energy to increase rural electrification or using are also more likely to be unemployed than men (ILO, 2018a). revenues from a carbon tax, combined with international financial These factors leave women, and particularly female-headed support to increase social assistance, could support sustainable households, at greater risk of poverty and food insecurity from eradication of poverty under near-term climate change (Hallegatte climate hazards. Controlling for multiple factors, income of female- et al., 2016; Aklin et al., 2018; Simpson et al., 2021c). Integrating urban 9 headed households in agricultural districts in South Africa is more green infrastructure into adaptation planning in informal settlements vulnerable to precipitation variability than those headed by men can simultaneously unlock pathways for inclusivity and social justice (Davidson, 2016; Flatø et  al., 2017). Across nine countries in east (Section 9.9.5; Tozer et al., 2020; Wijesinghe and Thorn, 2021). and west Africa women tend to control smaller plots of land that is often of poorer quality, have less access to inputs such as fertilizer, Social protection has been used for decades, particularly in eastern and tools and improved seeds, have lower educational attainment and southern Africa, to safeguard poor and vulnerable populations from benefit less from extension services, government agencies and non- poverty and food insecurity (Niño-Zarazúa et al., 2012). Instruments of governmental organisations (Perez et al., 2015). Gender assessments social protection include public works programmes, cash transfers, in- prior to adaptation programmes can identify disparities in division kind transfers, social insurance and microinsurance schemes that assist of labour and income and socio-cultural norms, hindering women individuals and households to cope during times of crisis and minimise from holding leadership positions or determining livelihood and social inequality. Evidence from Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda indicates resource-use activities, thereby helping ensure equitable benefits national social protection programmes are effective in improving from livelihood diversification and improving women’s working individual and household resilience to climate-related shocks, regardless conditions (ILO, 2018a). Gender-responsive policy instruments can of whether they aim specifically to address climate risks (Ulrichs et al., measure success using sex-disaggregated data to monitor impact 2019). Strengthening social protection and better integrating climate and meaningful participation in decision making (GCF, 2018b). risk management into design of social protection programmes can help build long-term resilience to climate change (Hallegatte et  al., 2016; Exposure to climate hazards can trap poorer households in a cycle of Agrawal et al., 2019). For example, public works programmes can build poverty (Dercon and Christiaensen, 2011; Sesmero et al., 2018) and climate resilience by targeting soil, water and ecosystem conservation poor people in Africa are often more exposed to climate hazards and carbon sequestration, such as South Africa’s Working for Water than non-poor people. For example, poor people live in hotter areas Programme that restores river catchments to reduce fire risk and in Nigeria and in multiple African countries, poor households are increase water supplies (Turpie et al., 2008; Norton et al., 2020). more exposed to flooding (Section  9.9.2; Hallegatte et  al., 2016). Daily wage labourers and residents of urban informal settlements 9.11.4.1 Climate Insurance are vulnerable to heat stress because of the urban heat island effect combined with congestion, little shade and ventilation (Bartlett, 2008). African countries and communities are inadequately insured against Climate change can negatively affect household poverty through climate risk. Insurance penetration is less than 2% of GDP (Swis Re, price spikes, destroying assets or ability to invest in new assets and 2019) and 90% of natural catastrophe losses were uninsured in Africa reducing productivity (Hallegatte et al., 2016) with important impact in 2018 (Swis Re, 2019) leaving a large risk protection gap. The cost of pathways operating through agriculture, ecosystem functioning and reinsurance in Africa’s most mature insurance market—South Africa— health (Sections 9.6; 9.8; 9.10; Chapters 5; 7; 8). Non-poor people can has increased since 2017 due to climate-related payouts (SAIA, 2018; lose more in absolute terms from climate shocks because of having Simpson, 2020), which is expected to further reduce the extent of more assets and higher incomes, but in relative terms, poor people insurance coverage. Emerging trends that seek to address this gap often lose more than the non-poor. These relative losses matter most include innovative weather and drought index-based insurance for livelihoods and welfare (Hallegatte et al., 2016). schemes to transfer risk, forward-looking climate data and models to manage risk and insurers transitioning from risk transfer providers to In Malawi, wealthier households were able to maintain more diversified proactive risk managers. livelihoods, buffering them from extreme weather-related income losses (Sesmero et al., 2018). Poorer households have limited access to The most significant area of climate risk insurance innovation has resources such as savings, credit, irrigation technologies and insurance, occurred in weather and drought index-based insurance schemes that which can lead to larger crop and other income losses from climate pay out fixed amounts based on the occurrence of an event instead hazards, preventing investments to improve resilience to future climate of full indemnification against assessed losses (Table 9.12). However, 1389 Chapter 9 Africa despite the relatively low cost, uptake remains low due to affordability 9.11.5 COVID-19 Recovery Stimulus Packages for Climate constraints, lack of awareness, access to and trust in products, Action distribution challenges, basis risk, poor transparency, challenges regarding the integration of complementary interventions (e.g., access The COVID-19 pandemic recovery effort includes significant opportunities to improved inputs or informal savings/credit) and poor perceptions/ for African countries to reduce future vulnerability to compound climate, norms of insurance and risk transfer. Lack of data and models further economic and health risks. Fiscal recovery packages could set economies hinders insurers’ ability to price risk correctly, which reduces value to on a pathway towards net-zero emissions, reducing future climate risk or clients (Greatrex et  al., 2015; Di Marcantonio and Kayitakire, 2017; entrench fossil-fuel intensive systems, exacerbating risk (Hepburn et al., WEF, 2021). Impact assessments point to potential but remain context- 2020; Dibley et al., 2021; IEA, 2021). Investments in renewable energy, specific (Awondo, 2019; Hansen et al., 2019b; Noritomo and Takahashi, building efficiency retrofits, education and training, natural capital (i.e., 2020). In addition, there is no comprehensive overview of the number ecosystem restoration and EbA), R&D, connectivity infrastructure and of people covered by such schemes, nor of the value they provide in sustainable agriculture can help meet both economic recovery and terms of actual claims payouts. Lastly, donor and/or public funds still climate goals (Hepburn et al., 2020; Dibley et al., 2021). play an outsized role in launching and/or sustaining these schemes 9 and schemes beyond weather and drought remain limited (Table 9.12). The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been substantially worsened by climate hazards in many places. In others, outbreak Insurers and their clients are often unaware of their risk exposure, response has been disrupted (Phillips et  al., 2020; Kruczkiewicz partly due to data and modelling gaps. Climate information services et  al., 2021). These vulnerabilities are rooted in insufficient disaster and related collaborations are increasingly helping to address this preparedness infrastructure but are almost always worsened by social problem (see Section  9.4.5). Climate change attribution methods to and economic inequality. Ensuring the most vulnerable populations estimate the contribution of human-casued climate change to the are properly protected from climate change has co-benefits for cost of parametric insurance offers possibilities for a sharing of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (Manzanedo and Manning, premium between the impacted African country and a global climate 2020). In particular, efforts to reduce syndemic vulnerabilities across fund, such as the GCF (New et al., 2020). Technology companies and key sectors (especially health, livelihoods and food security) will lessen start-ups (including FinTechs) are also emerging as solutions to fill risk climate change impacts and will also reduce the risk and impacts of gaps, leveraging new approaches to data and technology through future epidemics and pandemics, for example, during the pandemic, the use of sensors, drones and satellite imaging to speak to mainly water scarcity has been a barrier to a key risk mitigation behaviour agricultural risks, but also urban risks such as informal settlement fires, (hand washing). In the long-term, development efforts focused on exacerbated by heat and drought (Table 9.12). WASH will reduce this vulnerability and also reduce the health toll of diarrheal disease linked to climate change (Anim and Ofori-Asenso, Ten African insurers formally committed to help manage climate risk on 2020; Zvobgo and Do, 2020). Spending recovery funds on social the continent through the Nairobi Declaration of the UNEP Principles safety nets will reduce inequality and protect the most vulnerable for Sustainable Insurance (PSI) in 2021 (UNEP PSI, 2021). Some communities (especially women and low-income and marginalised early examples of public–private partnerships with municipalities communities) from the social and economic impacts of disasters. Key and governments to better manage climate risk are also emerging among these safety nets is universal health coverage, including low- or (Table 9.12). Table 9.12 |  Insurance opportunities to mitigate climate risk. Drought/ Policyholders/ Initiatives Flood Cyclone Fire Example Reference heatwave beneficiaries Index and ACRE Africa, Pula, R4 Rural Greatrex et al. (2015); CTA (2019); Global parametric Resilience Initiative, KLIP, FISP, Smallholder Index Insurance Facility (2019); WFP X X schemes— Ghana Agricultural Insurance farmers (2020); Fava et al. (2021); OKO Finance smallholder farmer Pool, Oko Crop Assurance (2021); Pula (2021); Tsan et al. (2021) Index and parametric schemes X X X African Risk Capacity Governments ARC (2019) – sovereign and sub-sovereign Index and African and Asian Resilience Individuals and parametric schemes X X in Disaster Insurance Scheme Global Parametrics (2018) smallholder farmers – global (ARDIS) Insurers and Risk management UNEP PSI Santam (2018); Forsyth et al. (2019); reinsurers, local and data X X X X Santam UNEP-FI (2019a); InsurResilience (2020); municipalities, collaboration Tripartite Agreement Simpson (2020) governments Greatrex et al. (2015); Hunter et al. (2018); Lumkani, WorldCover, Econet, Individuals, FinTech X X X CTA (2019); UK Space Agency (2020); Tsan PlaNet Guarantee smallholder farmers et al. (2021) 1390 Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.8 | Climate change, migration and displacement in Africa Climatic conditions are important drivers of migration and displacement with migration responses to climate hazards strongly influenced by economic, social, political and demographic processes (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). Most climate-related migration and displacement observed currently is within countries or between neighbouring countries, rather than to more geographically distant high-income countries (Hoffmann et al., 2020; Kaczan and Orgill-Meyer, 2020). Natural disaster-related displacements in sub-Saharan Africa were over 2.6 million in 2018 and 3.4 million in 2019 (13.9% of the global total and one of the highest historical figures for the region), with east (1,437,7000) and west Africa (798,000) being hotspots in 2018 (Table Box 9.8.1; Mastrorillo et al., 2016; IDMC, 2019; IDMC, 2020). Estimates indicate future climate change effects on internal migration in Africa will be considerable (Table Box 9.8.1;Rigaud et al., 2018). Internal migration, displacement and urbanisation 9 Climate change can have opposing influences on migration flows. Deteriorating economic conditions caused by climate hazards can encourage out-migration (Wiederkehr et al., 2018). However, these same economic losses undermine household resources needed to migrate (Cattaneo and Peri, 2016). The net effect of these two forces leads to mixed results across study methodologies and contexts (Carleton and Hsiang, 2016; Borderon et al., 2019; Cattaneo et al., 2019; Hoffmann et al., 2020). Urbanisation in Africa is affected by climate conditions in rural agricultural areas (high confidence). Urbanisation can increase when reduced moisture availability depresses farm incomes or pastoral livelihoods become unviable (Marchiori et al., 2012; Henderson et al., 2014; Mastrorillo et al., 2016). The influence of rainfall on rural–urban migration increased since decolonisation, possibly due to more lenient legislation on internal mobility, with each 1% reduction in precipitation below a long-term average associated with a 0.45% increase in urbanisation (Barrios et  al., 2006). The rate of rural–urban migration is anticipated to increase (Neumann et  al., 2015) as a result of increasing vulnerability of agricultural livelihoods to climate change (Serdeczny et al., 2017). Nevertheless, rural–urban migration is not a simple one-way process. Peri-urban and rural areas provide developmental feedback loops, helping create a ‘regional agglomeration’ effect, for instance, through growing food demand, family and social connections, and flows back to rural areas of goods and services and financial investments (UN-Habitat, 2016; Dodman et al., 2017). Migration is an important and potentially effective climate change adaptation strategy in Africa and must be considered in adaptation planning (high confidence) (Williams et al., 2021). The more agency migrants have (that is, degree of voluntarity and freedom of movement), the greater the potential benefits for sending and receiving areas (high agreement, medium evidence) (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). In a synthesis of 63 studies covering over 9700 rural households in dryland sub-Saharan Africa, 23% of households employed migration (primarily temporary economic) to adapt to changes in rainfed agriculture (Wiederkehr et  al., 2018). Migration responses to climate change tend to be stronger among wealthier households, as poorer households often lack financial resources necessary to migrate (Kaczan and Orgill-Meyer, 2020). International migration Studies on propensity to emigrate have uncovered conflicting results. Some findings suggest in low-income countries high temperatures ‘trap’ people at home and lower migration rates abroad, but in middle-income countries, these same high temperatures encourage emigration (Cattaneo and Peri, 2016). However, other research finds in poor and agriculturally dependent countries, high temperatures encourage international out-migration, particularly to the OECD (Cai et al., 2016). Some evidence indicates people who leave tend to be more educated, possibly leading to ‘brain drain’ (Mbaye, 2017). Recent evidence suggests hotter-than-normal temperatures across 103 countries, including many in Africa, increased asylum applications to the European Union (Missirian and Schlenker, 2017). Assuming no change in present-day vulnerability, asylum applications are projected to increase 34% across Africa (relative to 2000–2014) at 2.2°C global warming (Missirian and Schlenker, 2017), although this finding has been challenged in the literature (Abel et al., 2019; Boas et al., 2019). International remittances are a vital resource for developing countries that can help aid recovery from climate shocks (Hallegatte et al. 2016). Estimated at USD 48 billion in 2019 their importance is expected to grow further due to foreign direct investment declines during the COVID-19 pandemic (World Bank, 2020a). Furthermore, domestic remittances from rural–urban migration can help rural households respond to climate risks (KNOMAD, 2016). However, adequate finance and banking infrastructure are essential for remittances and, on average, cash transfer costs for sub-Saharan African countries remain the highest globally (World Bank, 2020a). Mobile money technologies 1391 Chapter 9 Africa Box 9.8 (continued) and regulation that promotes competition in the remittances market can reduce transaction costs (World Bank, 2020a). Governments can further address challenges facing internal and international migrants by including them in health services and other social programmes and protecting them from discrimination (World Bank, 2020a). Table Box 9.8.1 |  Reported impacts of climate on migration in Africa. (Findings on the linkages between climatic conditions and migration vary greatly across countries in Africa.) Climate driver Country Climate – Migration linkages Reference Kenya Cool temperatures linked to internal labour migration among males. Gray and Wise (2016) High temperatures linked to increased non-labour migration among females. Uganda Short hot spells linked to increased temporary migration. Long-term heat stress linked to Gray and Wise (2016); Call and Gray (2020) Temperature 9 permanent migration through an agricultural livelihoods pathway. Temperature-induced income shocks linked to decreased long-term rural–urban migration Tanzania Hirvonen (2016) among men. Kenya Increased precipitation linked to decreased rural–urban migration. Mueller et al. (2020) Zambia Increased precipitation linked to increased internal migration. Mueller et al. (2020) Drier regions linked to increased temporary and permanent migrations to other rural Burkina Faso areas. Short-term precipitation deficits linked to increased long-term migration to rural Henry et al. (2004) areas and decreased risk of short-term migration to distant destinations. Drought linked to men’s rural–urban labour migration, especially in land-poor households. Drought linked to decreased marriage-related migration by women. Precipitation variability and drought linked to rural–urban labour migration. Gray and Mueller (2012); Morrissey (2013); Precipitation variability and drought linked to out-migration to communities where Ethiopia Hermans-Neumann et al. (2017); Groth precipitation variability and drought probability are lower. et al. (2021) High precipitation variability linked to increased migration, either through increased non-farm activities, which enable migration through economic resources or through Precipitation insufficient agricultural production, which increase migration needs. Increased severity of drought and household insecurity linked to reduced future migration Ghana Adger et al. (2021) intentions of households. Precipitation shocks linked to rural out-migration to communities where precipitation variability and drought probability are lower. Malawi Lewin et al. (2012); Suckall et al. (2015) Precipitation shocks (flood and droughts) linked to longer-term urban migration and/or reverse (i.e., urban–rural) migration. Decreased precipitation linked to overall increase in out-migration—where farming families or individuals from farming communities will leave their origin community—and Mali Grace et al. (2018) some changes in duration and destination of trips. These moves can be either permanent or short-term, domestic or international. Drought linked to economically induced migration of households from rural areas to Niger Afifi (2011) cities. Drought also linked to temporary international migration. High temperatures linked to negative effects on all migration streams including Burkina Faso international migration, much of which is to neighbouring countries. International Gray and Wise (2016) migration also declines with precipitation. Senegal No detected linkages between climate and migration. Gray and Wise (2016) Nigeria No detected linkages between climate and migration. Gray and Wise (2016) Temperature and Botswana Increased temperatures and precipitation linked to decreased internal migration. Mueller et al. (2020) precipitation Higher temperatures and precipitation extremes linked to increased rural out-migration, South Africa Mastrorillo et al. (2016) especially among black and low-income South Africans. Precipitation variability, drought and increased temperatures linked to seasonal migration Senegal Hummel (2016) from rural to urban areas. Hotter and drier climate linked to inter-district migration of wealthy districts. Poor districts Zambia Nawrotzki and DeWaard (2018) characterised by climate-related immobility. 1392 Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.8 (continued) Table Box 9.8.2 |  Projected numbers and shares of internal climate migrants in 2050 by sub-regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Projections are for internal migration driven by three slow-onset climate hazards (water stress, crop failure and SLR), and excluding rapid-onset hazards such as floods and tropical cyclones. As such, they present a lower-bound estimate of potential climate change impacts on internal migration. Projections are for two warming scenarios: low emissions (RCP2.6) and high emissions (RCP8.5), both coupled with a socioeconomic pathway (SSP4) in which low-income countries have high population growth, high rates of urbanisation, and increasing inequality within and among countries. By 2050, between 17.4 million (RCP2.6) and 85 million (RCP8.5) people (up to 4% of the region’s total population) could be moving as a consequence of climate impacts on water stress, crop productivity and SLR. More inclusive socioeconomic pathways with lower population growth are projected to reduce these risks. West Africa has the highest levels of climate migrants, potentially reaching more than 50 million, suggesting that climate impacts will have a particularly pronounced impact on future migration in the region. In east Africa, out-migration hotspots include coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania, western Uganda and parts of the northern highlands of Ethiopia. Kampala, Nairobi and Lilongwe may become hotspots of climate in-migration, coupled with existing rural to urban migration trends, and a high likelihood of movement toward non-climate-related sources of income in cities. Source: (Rigaud et al., 2018). Global warming around 2.5°C Global warming around 1.7°C Region above pre-industrial by 2050 above pre-industrial by 2050 (RCP8.5) (RCP2.6) 9 Average number of internal migrants by 2050 (million) 10.1 6.9 East Africa Internal climate migrants as percent of population 1.28% 0.87% Average number of internal migrants by 2050 (million) 54.4 17.9 West Africa Internal climate migrants as percent of population 6.87% 2.27% Average number of internal migrants by 2050 (million) 5.1 2.6 Central Africa Internal climate migrants as percent of population 1.31% 0.66% Average number of internal migrants by 2050 (million) 1.5 0.9 Southern Africa Internal climate migrants as percent of population 2.31% 1.40% Average number of internal migrants by 2050 (million) 71.1 28.3 Minimum (left) and maximum (right) million 56.6 85.7 17.4 39.9 Sub-Saharan Africa Internal climate migrants as percent of population 3.49% 1.39% Minimum (left) and maximum (right) percent 2.71% 4.03% 0.91% 2.04% no-cost access to essential medicine, high-quality preventative care, 9.12.1 Observed Impacts on Cultural Heritage. financial protections against medical debt and increased geographic and population coverage for all services (Hallegatte et al., 2016). All of For more than 10,000 years, Africans recorded over 8000 painted and these are key components of climate change adaptation for health and engraved images on rock shelters and rock outcroppings across 800 will reduce both the rate at which future outbreaks start and their total known exceptional rock art sites of incalculable value (Hall et al., 2007; scope and impact (Carlson et al., 2021). The co-benefits of multilateral di Lernia and Gallinaro, 2011; di Lernia, 2017; Clarke and Brooks, 2018; cooperation on the attainment of universal health coverage will be a Barnett, 2019), but which are exceptionally fragile to the elements. key determinant of success or failure in both climate change adaptation Unfortunately, there has been a poor study of direct climate change and pandemic preparedness. impacts on rock art across Africa. Underwater heritage includes shipwrecks and artefacts lost at sea 9.12 Heritage and extends to prehistoric sites, sunken towns and ancient ports that are now submerged due to climatic or geological changes (Spalding, Africa is a rich reservoir of heritage resources and Indigenous 2011). Off the shores of Africa, about 111 shipwrecks have been Knowledge, showcased by about 96 sites inscribed by the United documented, with South Africa having a major share of about 41 Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) sites. The sunken Egyptian city of Thonis-Heracleion and its associated as World Heritage Sites (UNESCO, 2018b). These include 53 sites 60+ shipwrecks reflect the richness of Africa’s waters. Unfortunately, specifically denoted as having great cultural importance and five sites increased storm surges and violent weather currently threaten the with mixed heritage values. Unfortunately, valuable cultural heritage integrity of shipwrecks by accelerating the destruction of wooden in forms of tangible evidence of past human endeavour, and the parts and other features (Harkin et al., 2020). However, climate change intangible heritage encapsulated by diverse cultural practices of many impacts on underwater cultural heritage sites are poorly studied, as communities (Feary et  al., 2016), is under great threat from climate it requires specialist assessment techniques (Feary et al., 2016), and change. marine archaeology studies are not well established in Africa. 1393 Chapter 9 Africa Box 9.9 | Climate Change and Security: Interpersonal Violence and Large-scale Civil Conflict There is substantial evidence that climate variability influences human security across Africa (see Chapter 7 Sections 7.2.7; 7.3.3 7). However, the strength and nature of this link depend on socioeconomic and institutional conditions, and climate is just one of many factors influencing violence and civil conflict (Schleussner et al., 2016a; von Uexkull et al., 2016; Linke et al., 2018; Mach et al., 2019; van Weezel, 2019; Ide et al., 2020). Projections of security implications of long-run climate change in Africa are uncertain, as they rely on extrapolating observed effects of short-run climate variability (Burke et al., 2014). Lack of detection and attribution studies limit assessment of the impacts of observed human-caused climate change on security. Interpersonal violent crime 9 Evidence from across the globe finds that interpersonal violence, ranging from use of profanity to violent crime, increases with temperature and sometimes low rainfall (Hsiang et al., 2013a; Burke et al., 2014; Gates et al., 2019). The effect of temperature may be driven by a physiological mechanism (Morrison et al., 2008; Seo et al., 2008; Ray et al., 2011), while effects of rainfall may operate through an agricultural yield impacts channel (Burke et al., 2014). While few studies link interpersonal violence to climate in Africa, Gates et al. (2019) documents homicide risks increasing under high temperatures in South Africa, and similarity across diverse study settings suggests temperature-induced violent crime likely generalises to Africa (Burke et al., 2014). Large-scale intergroup conflict Climatic conditions also change the risk of large-scale conflicts such as riots, ethnic conflicts and civil war (Burke et al., 2014; Koubi, 2019). The effects of temperature are particularly well-studied in Africa. Risk of violent conflict rises with temperature in Sudan and South Sudan (Maystadt and Ecker, 2014; Maystadt et al., 2014; Scheffran et al., 2014), Kenya (Hsiang et al., 2013b; Scheffran et al., 2014), the east African region (O’Loughlin et al., 2012) and across sub-Saharan Africa (Burke et al., 2009; O’Loughlin et al., 2014; Witmer et al., 2017). Estimates indicate that warming trends since 1980 have elevated conflict risk across sub-Saharan Africa by 11% (Burke et al., 2009; Carleton et al., 2016). Periods of low rainfall or flooding also contribute to social instability and upheaval across Africa (Miguel et al., 2004; Ralston, 2015; von Uexkull et al., 2016; Harari and Ferrara, 2018; van Weezel, 2019; Ide et al., 2020). The link between rainfall and conflict appears likely due to crop losses and declines in economic opportunity. One study found that dry growing seasons increase conflict incidence across 36 African nations, with spillover effects from the location of climate shock to neighbouring communities (Harari and Ferrara, 2018). Conflict-inducing impacts of drought have also been uncovered in Somalia (Maystadt and Ecker, 2014), Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya (Fjelde and von Uexkull, 2012; Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012; Couttenier and Soubeyran, 2014; Ralston, 2015; Linke et al., 2018; van Weezel, 2019), the DRC (von Uexkull et al., 2020) and in a pooled sample of African and Asian countries (von Uexkull et al., 2016). Extremely high rainfall may also incite conflict risk, although results are mixed (Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012; Raleigh and Kniveton, 2012). This uncertainty, combined with large uncertainties in rainfall projections under climate change, render future impacts of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions on rainfall-induced conflict in Africa highly uncertain. While conflict–climate links have been repeatedly identified in Africa, climate is one of many interacting conflict risk factors and appears to explain only a small share of total variation in conflict incidence (von Uexkull et al., 2016; Mach et al., 2019; van Weezel, 2019). Opportunities for adaptation Adaptive capacity with respect to climate and conflict remains low in Africa (Sitati et al., 2021). For example, one study found that, relative to each country’s optimal annual temperature, realised temperatures across sub-Saharan Africa increase the annual incidence of war by 29.3% on average (Carleton et al., 2016). Another finds that rising temperatures due to climate change may lead to higher levels of violence in sub-Saharan Africa if political rights do not improve from current conditions (Witmer et al., 2017). Available studies on adaptation in conflict-affected areas tend to have a narrow focus, particularly on agriculture-related adaptation in rural contexts and adaptation by low-income actors, with little known beyond these contexts (Sitati et al., 2021). Literature on the gender dimension of climate adaptation in conflict-affected countries is also limited (Sitati et al., 2021). 1394 Africa Chapter 9 Box 9.9 (continued) Migration is a common response (Sitati et al., 2021) and may be an effective adaptive response to climate-induced conflict. Bosetti et al. (2018) find that countries with high emigration propensity display lower sensitivity of conflict to temperature, with no evidence of detrimental impacts on the destination countries. IK has also been applied to enable adaptation amidst conflict, for example, in Libya, to deal with erratic rainfall (Biagetti, 2017). Other socioeconomic factors have been identified as adaptive opportunities. Rising incomes may mitigate conflict–climate relationships (Carleton et al., 2016), while weak institutions, lack of political freedom, agricultural dependence and exclusion of ethnic groups increase their strength (Schleussner et al., 2016a; von Uexkull et al., 2016; Witmer et al., 2017; Ide et al., 2020). In particular, agriculturally dependent and politically excluded groups in Africa are especially vulnerable to the impact of drought on conflict (von Uexkull et al., 2016; Koubi, 2019). Household-level resilience to economic shocks has been shown to lower support for violence after drought (von Uexkull et al., 2020). Local-level institutions have also been shown to support non-violence under adverse climate conditions (Bogale and Korf, 2007). 9 These findings suggest that ameliorating ethnic tensions, improving political institutions and investing in economic diversification and household resilience could mitigate future impacts of climate change on conflict. Intangible heritage includes instruments, objects, artefacts and cultural and changing climate that exacerbates decay (Brimblecombe et  al., spaces associated with communities, and are almost always held orally 2011; Bosman and Van der Westhuizen, 2014; Brooks et al., 2020). (UNESCO, 2003). Loss of heritage assets may be a direct consequence of climate change/variability (Markham et al., 2016), or a consequence of indirect factors resulting from climate change, for example, economic 9.12.2 Projected Risks instability and poor decision making in areas of governance. In northern Nigeria, climate change exacerbates the impact of poor land use Sea level rise (SLR) and its associated hazards will present increasing decisions, reducing the flow of the Yobe River and negatively impacting climate risk to African heritage in the coming decades (Figure 9.38; the Bade fishing festival because the available fish species continue Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Reimann et al., 2018; Brito and Naia, to decline (Oruonye, 2010). Similarly, Lake Sanké in Mali has been 2020). Although no continental assessment has quantified climate degraded by a combination of urban development and poor rainfall, risk to African heritage and little is known of near-term exposure to threatening the Sanké mon collective fishing rite (UNESCO, 2018b). hazards such as SLR and erosion, for a handful of coastal heritage sites included in global or Mediterranean studies, 10 cultural sites are Migration related to climate change and climatic events could offer identified to be physically exposed to SLR by 2100 at high emissions openings to women and young people to become de facto family scenarios (RCP8.5) (Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Reimann et al., heads (Kaag et al., 2019). However, such societal changes also increase 2018), of which, seven World Heritage Sites in the Mediterranean are community vulnerability to the loss of cultural knowledge held by village also projected to face medium or high risk of erosion (Figure 9.38; elders. For example, in Mauritius, the Sega tambour Chagos music is at Reimann et al., 2018). Further, Brito and Naia (2020) identify natural risk, as elders familiar with the landscape pass on (Boswell, 2008). heritage sites across 27 African countries that will be affected by SLR by 2100 (RCP8.5), of which 15 sites covering eight countries 9.12.1.1 Case Study: Traditional Earthen ‘Green Energy’ Buildings demonstrated a high need for proactive management actions because of high levels of biodiversity, international conservation relevance and Historically, Africa has had a unique and sustainable architecture (Diop, exposure to SLR (Figure  9.38). These nascent studies highlight the 2018) characterised by area-specific, traditional earthen materials and potential severity of risk and loss and damage from climate change associated Indigenous technology. Key examples include Tiébélé in to African heritage, as well as gaps in knowledge of climate risk to Burkina Faso, Walata in Mauritania, Akan in Ghana, Ghadames in Libya, African cultural and natural, particularly concerning bio-cultural Old Towns of Djenné in Mali (World Heritage Site) and other diverse heritage. earthen architecture across sub-Saharan Africa. Adegun and Adedeji (2017) indicate that earthen materials provide advantages in thermal Although climate change is a significant risk to heritage sites (Brito conductivity, resistivity and diffusivity, indoor and outdoor temperature, and Naia, 2020), there is little research on how heritage management as well as cooling and heating capacities. Moreover, earthen materials is adapting to climate change, and particularly, whether the capacity are recyclable and environmentally ‘cleaner’ (Sanya, 2012) because of of current heritage management systems can prepare for and deal with the absence or small quantity of cement in production, thus reducing consequences of climate change (Phillips, 2015; see also Cross-Chapter carbon emissions. Despite these advantages, the expertise and socio- Box SLR in Chapter 3). cultural ceremonies that accompany building and renewal of earthen architecture are disappearing fast (Adegun and Adedeji, 2017). Further, Worsening climate impacts are cumulative and often exacerbate earthen construction is being threatened by extreme climatic variability the vulnerability of cultural heritage sites to other existing risks, 1395 Chapter 9 Africa Risk to Africa’s cultural and natural coastal heritage sites from sea level rise and erosion by 2100 (RCP8.5) (a) Cultural sites exposed to sea level rise and erosion (b) 15 natural sites of conservation priority exposed to sea level rise 9 * * * * * * * * = Cultural sites exposed to sea level rise and facing medium and high risk of erosion Figure 9.38 |  Risk to Africa’s cultural and natural coastal heritage sites from see level rise (SLR) and erosion by 2100. (a) World Heritage Sites projected to be exposed to flooding from SLR under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) by 2100 (Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Reimann et al., 2018). For north Africa, multiple sites are already identified to be at medium or high risk from erosion under both current and future SLR conditions (Reimann et al., 2018). At the time of assessment erosion risk had not been assessed for other African regions (b) The 15 African natural sites (coastal protected areas) projected to be most exposed to negative impacts from SLR and thus as priority sites for adaptation (Brito and Naia, 2020). including conflict, terrorism, poverty, invasive species, competition 9.12.3 Adaptation for natural resources and pollution (Markham et  al., 2016). These issues may affect a broad range of tourism segments, including beach Research highlights potential in integrating Indigenous Knowledge, vacation sites, safari tourism, cultural tourism and visits to historic land use practices, scientific knowledge and heritage values to co- cities (UNWTO, 2008). Climate change impacts have the potential to produce tools that refine our understanding of climate change and increase tourist safety concerns, especially at sites where increased variability and develop comprehensive heritage adaptation policy intensity of extreme weather events or vulnerability to floods and (Table 9.13; Ekblom et al., 2019). landslides are projected (Markham et al., 2016) (see also Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in Chapter 2). There may also be circumstances where Conservation of heritage may require offsetting the impact of loss interventions required to preserve and protect the resource alter its through partial or total excavation under certain circumstances, like cultural significance (van Wyk, 2017). environment instability, or where in situ heritage preservation is exorbitant in cost (Maarleveld and Guérin, 2013). 1396 Africa Chapter 9 Although many underwater shipwrecks and ruins of cities are currently experiences into memories that can be ‘translated’ into diverse adaptive preserved better in situ than similar sites on land (Feary et al., 2016), practices (Oba, 2014). In coastal Kenya, Mijikenda communities rely preserving such heritage is often financially prohibitive with many on Indigenous Knowledge and practices used in the management of physical and technical challenges. Further, skill capacities of heritage the sacred Kaya Forests to adapt their farming to a changing climate agencies are limited to a few qualified archaeologists in Africa (Wekesa et al., 2015). (Maarleveld and Guérin, 2013). Hence, preservation measures for transforming oral information into For centuries, Africans have drawn on intangible heritage to enhance written records should ensure viability of intangible cultural heritage by their resilience to climatic variability and support adaptation practices. giving due consideration to the confidentiality of culturally sensitive For example, pastoralist communities have historically translated their information and intellectual property rights (Feary et al., 2016). Table 9.13 |  Examples of responses to climate change impacts to heritage sites. Type of Intervention Main Final state 9 Heritage Type Example climate focus or intervention State of materials Literature of heritage impact activity activity Mixed. Fort is in good condition, Building repairs Ounga but other parts of Some aspects to outer walls Byzantine Fort Archaeological the site are under of site well Historic Coastal of fort but other Slim et al. and associated conservation threat of coastal preserved, buildings erosion archaeological (2004) archaeological of fort erosion, particularly other parts areas no remains, Tunisia lesser archaeological damaged. Ancient intervention remains of other periods. Some aspects SLR, local Sabratha, Loss of of site well Archaeological flooding Monitoring of Abdalahh Roman City, None archaeological preserved, sites and coastal condition (2011) Libyan coast remains into the sea. other parts erosion damaged. Lamu Old Town managed by National Museums of Mangrove forests Tangible SLR Kenya the provide protection impacting mangrove forests from storm surges low-lying by Community Draft for and coastal erosion. Lamu Old Town areas and Forest National Policy Changing biodiversity Continuing Wanderi Cities/towns and archipelago, climate Associations for Disaster of mangroves deterioration. (2019) Kenya variability and Forest Management in is threatening impacting Conservation and Kenya mangroves which protective Management Act Living threaten Lamu Old mangroves of 2016 Town. Changes in biodiversity and cultural resilience to climate shocks Improvements Climate to drainage and variability land security, Birabi and Tiébélé, Burkina Local community Current and ongoing Mud buildings causing development of Stable. Nawangwe Faso conservation conservation. flooding, conservation and (2011) erosion. management plans Precipitation and Increasing atmospheric Golden Gate Biodeterioration of loss of rock Viles and changes Monitoring of No known Bio-cultural Rock art Highlands, condition of rock surfaces and Cutler causing condition intervention South Africa surface. images on the (2012) luxuriant rock surfaces. lichen growth 1397 Chapter 9 Africa Type of Intervention Main Final state Heritage Type Example climate focus or intervention State of materials Literature of heritage impact activity activity Climate !Xun and Khwe variability Indigenous causing Enhancement, Bodunrin Groups (youth) Documentation Non-formal, local. Youth of South drought promotion. (2019) Africa and loss of plants Language Indigenous Climate Language Use variability Adeyeye in Agricultural Farmer groups, Research, Promotion, increasing Formal, local et al. Radio communities documentation transmission. frequency of (2020) Programming in drought Nigeria Enkipaata, 9 Climate Eunoto and Maasai Identification, variability Formal, non-formal, UNESCO Rituals Olng’esherr community documentation, Promotion. causing local, foreign. (2018a) Maasai male groups research drought rites of passage Climate Malinkés, Intangible Sanké mon Identification, Customs & variability Bambara Formal, non-formal, UNESCO (Indigenous) fishing festival documentation, Promotion. beliefs reducing and Buwa local. (2009) in Mali preservation rainfall communities Increased Water siltation and Indigenous measurers of sandstorms Research, Mokadem Touat and Tidikelt engineering the Foggara Climate identification, Formal, local. Transmission. et al. communities systems irrigation system variability documentation (2018) in Algeria causing flooding Traditional crafts UNESCO Arts and crafts made from (2003) various parts Residents of Climate Research, of the Date oases, groups, Transmission, variability identification, Palm in Egypt, communities, Formal, non-formal, promotion, causing documentation, Mauritania, agricultural local, foreign. enhancement, Shabani shift in plant preservation, Morocco, Sudan, cooperative revitalisation. et al. habitats protection Tunisia and societies (2012) other countries outside Africa Inclusion of cultural landscapes and intangible heritage in the landscape grounds and places of pilgrimage negate local participation in cultural approach at the regional scale development planning processes may site management (Ndoro, 2015). have significant impacts on protected area management (Feary et al., 2016). For example, at the Domboshava rock art site in Zimbabwe, all In the long term, heritage managers and local authorities could shift management decisions are taken in direct consultation with traditional from planning primarily for disaster response and recovery to strategies leaders and other stakeholders from surrounding communities (Chirikure that focus on disaster preparedness, reducing the vulnerability of et al., 2010). Such adaptation strategies promote a more open-minded sites and strengthening resilience of local communities (UNFCCC, approach to heritage by leveraging local development (UNESCO, 2018b). 2007; Domke and Pretzsch, 2016). This could evolve into innovative approaches that integrate community, government and the research Lack of expertise and resources, together with legislation that privileges sector in productive cultural heritage management partnerships. certain typologies of heritage, seem to limit implementation of approved policies (Ndoro, 2015). Additionally, cultural heritage has least priority There is a need for institutions to establish, maintain and update a in terms of budgetary allocation, capacity building and inclusion into comprehensive inventory of underwater cultural heritage. This can be school curricula. Failure to consider the views of people who attach done using non-intrusive, detailed mapping of the wreck site and a spiritual significance to places is detrimental to the conservation of three-dimensional model from which scientists can reconstruct the site heritage places (Bwasiri, 2011). In particular, documented cases of local in detail (Maarleveld and Guérin, 2013). people having to pay an entrance fee, like tourists, to access burial 1398 Africa Chapter 9 Frequently Asked Questions FAQ 9.1 | Which climate hazards impact African livelihoods, economies, health and well-being the most? Climate extremes, particularly extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall events, impact the livelihoods, health, and well-being of millions of Africans. They will also continue to impact African economies, limiting adaptation capacity. Interventions based on resilient infrastructure and technologies can achieve numerous developmental and adaptation co-benefits. Multi-year droughts have become more frequent in west Africa, and the 2015–2017 Cape Town drought was three times more likely due to human-caused climate change. Above 2°C global warming, drought frequency is projected to increase, and duration will double from approximately 2 to 4 months over north Africa, the western Sahel and southern Africa. Estimates of increased exposure to water stress are higher than those for decreases. By 2050, climate change could expose an additional 951 million people in sub-Saharan Africa to water stress while also reducing exposure to water stress by 459 million people. Compared to population in 2000, human displacement due to river flooding in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to triple for a scenario of low population growth and 1.6°C 9 global warming. Changing rainfall distributions together with warming temperatures will alter the distributions of disease vectors like mosquitoes and midges. Malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase in east and southern Africa and the Sahel under even moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by the 2030s, exposing an additional 50.6–62.1 million people to malaria risk. Increases in the number of hot days and nights, as well as in heatwave intensity and duration, have had negative impacts on agriculture, human health, water availability, energy demand and livelihoods. By some estimates, African countries’ Gross Domestic Product per capita is on average 13.6% lower since 1991 than if human-caused global warm- ing had not occurred. In the future, high temperatures combined with high humidity exceed the threshold for human and livestock tolerance over larger parts of Africa and with greater frequency. Increased average temperatures and lower rainfall will further reduce economic output and growth in Africa, with larger negative impacts than on other regions of the world. Resilient infrastructure and technologies are required to cope with the increasing climate variability and change (Figure FAQ9.1.1). These include improving housing to limit heat and exposure, along with improving water and sanitation infrastructure. Such interventions to ensure that the most vulnerable are properly protected from climate change have many co-benefits, including for pandemic recovery and prevention. 1399 Chapter 9 Africa Box FAQ 9.1 (continued) A schematic illustration of the interconnectedness of different sectors and impacts Wider environment Personal environment 9 Internal Climate hazards Direct influences on Health & wellbeing Extreme weather Food Shelter/housing Extreme temperatures, heat Water Poverty Reduced precipitation, drought Ecosystem Cities/community Figure FAQ9.1.1 |  A schematic illustration of the interconnectedness of different sectors and impacts that spillover to affect the health and well-being of African people. 1400 Africa Chapter 9 Frequently Asked Questions FAQ 9.2 | What are the limits and benefits of climate change adaptation in Africa? The capacity for African ecosystems to adapt to changing environmental conditions is limited by a range of factors, from heat tolerance to land availability. Adaptation across human settlements and food systems are further constrained by insufficient planning and affordability. Integrated development planning and increasing finance flows can improve African climate change adaptation. With increasing warming, there is a lower likelihood species can migrate rapidly enough to track shifting climates, increasing extinction risk across more of Africa. At 2°C global warming more than 10% of African species are at risk of extinction. Species ability to disperse between areas to track shifting climates is limited by fencing, transport infrastructure, and the transformation of landscapes to agriculture and urban areas. Many species will lose large portions of their suitable habitats due to increases in temperature by 2100. Coupled with projected losses of Africa’s protected areas, higher temperatures will also reduce carbon sinks and other ecosystem services. Many nature-based adaptation measures (e.g., for coral reefs, mangroves, marshes) are less effective or no longer effective above 9 1.5°C of global warming. Human-based adaptation strategies for ecosystems reach their limits as availability and affordability of land decreases, resulting in migration, displacement and relocation. The limits to adaptation for human settlements arise largely from developmental challenges associated with Africa’s rapid urbanisation, poor development planning, and increasing numbers of urban poor residing in informal settlements. Further limits arise from insufficient consideration of climate change in adaptation planning and infrastructure investment and insufficient financial resources. There are also limits to adaptation for food production strategies. Increasing climate extreme events—droughts and floods—impose specific adaptation responses which poorer households cannot afford. For instance, the use of early maturing or drought-tolerant crop varieties may increase resilience, but adoption by smallholder farmers is hindered by the unavailability or unaffordability of seed. Adaptation in Africa can reduce risks at current levels of global warming. However, there is very limited evidence for the effectiveness of current adaptation at increased global warming levels. Ambitious, near-term mitigation would yield the largest single contribution to successful adaptation in Africa. Current adaptation finance flows are billions of USD less than the needs of African countries and around half of finance commitments to Africa reported by developed countries remain undisbursed. Increasing adaptation finance flows by billions of dollars (including public and private sources), removing barriers to accessing finance and providing targeted country support can improve climate change adaptation across Africa. Frequently Asked Questions FAQ 9.3 | How can African countries secure enough food in changing climate conditions for their growing populations? Climate change is already impacting African food systems and will worsen food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa in the future. An integrated approach to adaptation planning can serve as a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing African food security challenges. Maize and wheat yields have decreased an average of 5.8% and 2.3%, respectively, in sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change. Among the 135 million acutely food-insecure people in crisis globally, more than half (73 million) are in Africa. This is partly due to the growing severity of drought with increasing temperatures also a severe risk factor. Adding to these challenges, Africa has the fastest-growing population in the world that is projected to grow to around 40% of the world’s population by 2100. Sustainable agricultural development combined with enabling institutional conditions, such as supportive governance systems and policy, can provide farmers with greater yield stability in uncertain climate conditions. It is also widely acknowledged that an integrated approach for adaptation planning that combines (a) climate information services, (b) capacity building, (c) Indigenous and local knowledge systems and (d) strategic financial investment can serve as a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing African food security challenges. 1401 Chapter 9 Africa Frequently Asked Questions FAQ 9.4 | How can African local knowledge serve climate adaptation planning more effectively? A strong relationship between scientific knowledge and local knowledge is desirable, especially in developing contexts where technology for prediction and modelling is least accessible. In many African settings, farmers use the local knowledge gained over time—through experience and passed on orally from generation to generation—to cope with climate challenges. Indigenous Knowledge systems of weather and climate patterns include early warning systems, agroecological farming systems and observation of natural or non-natural climate indicators. For instance, biodiversity and crop diversification are used as a buffer against environmental challenges: if one crop fails, another could survive. Local knowledge of seasons, storms and wind patterns is used to guide and plan farming and other activities. 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