WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS, 2020 
David F. Nygaard 

2020 BRIEF 5 A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment OCTOBER 1994 

The world's population, today numberi ng some 5.5 bil lion 
people, may approach 12 billion by the end of the next 
century (Figure 1). By the year 2020, 26 years from today, 
it will most likely have increased by about 2.5 bi llion to a 
total of 8 bill ion people, an increase of nearly 100 million a 
year (Table 1). Over 93 percent of this growth wi ll take 
place in the developing countries (Figure 2). 

These estimates of popu lation growth rates are 
drawn from the United Nation's (UN's) World Population 
Prospects: The 1992 Revision. The UN reports three sets 
of projections, wh ich they call the medium variant, the 
high variant, and the low variant. These estimates are 
based on differing assumptions about fertility , and start­
ing from a base year of 1990, show population growth 
over time (Figure 3). By the year 2020, the difference 
between the low and the high estimates is more than 900 
million people. The UN's high and low variants include 
the "plausible" range of future demographic trends. Thus 
by 2020, the medium variant estimates, which are widely 
used internationally, could be too low or too high by as 
many as 450 million people, an error of approximately 5 
percent of the total world population. 

Using the medium variant estimates, the growth rate 
will be highest in Africa where population will more than 
double from 1990 to 2020 (from 643 mill ion people to 
1,421 mill ion). More importantly, growth rates in Africa, 

Figure 1-World population projections, 1750-2150 

Billions 

14.----------------------.,--------------, 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 

o~_. 

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21 00 2150 

Source: J. Bongaarts, The Population Council, 1994. 

Table 1- UN population prOjection, 1990-2020, by 
world and regions, medium variant 

Region 1990 1995 2000 2010 2020 

World 5,295 5,759 6,228 7,1 50 8,050 
Developed countries 1,21 1 1,244 1,278 1,341 1,387 
Developing countries 4,084 4,515 1,278 5,809 6,663 
Africa 643 744 856 1,116 1,421 
Asia 3, 11 8 3,408 3,692 4,214 4,689 
Latin America 441 482 523 600 670 
Europe 509 516 528 536 542 
North America 277 292 306 330 352 
Ocean ia 27 29 31 35 40 
Former U.S.S.R. 281 289 297 317 336 

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 1993. 

while decreasing, are still projected to be at 2.3 percent 
between 2015 and 2020 (they are 2.9 percent today) 
more than double the rates elsewhere and more than four 
times the rate projected for China during the 2015-2020 
period (Table 2). 

Figure 2-Population growth by developed and 
developing countries, 1990-2020, 
medium variant 

Billions 
8~------------------------------------~ 

7 
. 1990 
~ 2005 

02020 
6 

5 

4 

3 

2 

o 
Developed Countries Developing Countries 

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 1993. 

IFPRI .1200 SEVENTEENTH STREET, N.W •• WASHINGTON, D.C. 20036-3006 • U.S.A. 1-2021862-5600. FAX 1-2021467-4439. E-MAIL IFPRI@CGNET.COM 



Figure 3-UN population projection: low, medium, 
and 'high variants, 1990-2025 

Billions 

10~------------------------------------~ 

9 

8 

7 

6 

5+-----r---~----_r----._----r_--~----~ 
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 1993, 

However, the greatest absolute number of these addi­
tional people will live in Asia where population will in­
crease by over 1.5 billion people from 1990 to 2020 (with 
a relative increase of 50 percent). By the year 2020, China 
will have more than 1.5 billion people, and India will be 
close behind with over 1.3 billion people. Seven countries, 
China and India plus three others in Asia-Indonesia, 
Pakistan, and Bangladesh- plus Brazil and Nigeria, com­
prise today and will continue to comprise half the popula­
tion in the world. 

Table 2- Growth rate assumptions for UN 
projection, medium variant 

RegionlCountry 1990-1995 2015-2020 

(percent) 

World 1.68 1.13 
Developed countries 0.54 0.30 
Developing countries 2.01 1,30 
Africa 2.93 2.33 
Belgium 0.13 -0.12 
Brazil 1.59 0.83 
China 1.31 0.55 
India 1.91 0.98 
Nigeria 3.13 2.48 
Tanzania 3.36 2.89 
United States 1.03 0.58 

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 1993. 

Two regions in particular merit attention. South Asia 
and Africa, where large percentages of the poor live today 
and where future food production is of concern, face sub­
stantial increases in their populations. India, Pakistan, and 
Bangladesh plus the continent of Africa will add another 
1.5 billion people to the population roles. 

In sum, continued growth in the world's population, 
about which virtually nothing can be done in a short period 
of 15 to 20 years, will reach a level of at least 7.5 billion and 
perhaps as many as 8.5 billion people by the year 2020. 

David F. Nygaard is research fellow in the director general's office at the International Food Policy Research Institute. 

"A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment" is an initiative of the International Food Policy 
Research Institute (IFPRI) to develop a shared vision and a consensus for action on how to meet future world 
food needs while reducing poverty and protecting the environment. Through the 2020 Vision initiative, IFPRI 
is bringing together divergent schools of Jhought on these issues, generating research, and identifying 
recommendations. The 2020 Briefs present information on various aspects of the issues.