FOOD POLICY INDICATORS: TRACKING CHANGE DEC IS I O N M A K E R S A N D PO LI C Y A N A LYS T S N E E D SO LI D E V I DE N C E and timely information to develop and implement effective food policies. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) develops and shares global public goods—including datasets, indicators, and indexes—as part of its mission to provide research-based policy solutions that sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. This information can be used to gauge the impact of policy changes and the progress made on specific aspects of development. This section provides updates on data generated by IFPRI research. Indicators include investments in agricultural research, public spending on agriculture, capacity for food policy research, agricultural total factor productivity, and projections for agricultural production, food consumption, and risk of hunger to 2030 and 2050. All indicators are available online with an interactive display of the data. 118 AgriculturAl Science And technology indicAtorS (ASti) 120 StAtiSticS on Public exPenditureS for economic develoPment (SPeed) 125 food Policy reSeArch cAPAcity indicAtorS (fPrci) 130 AgriculturAl totAl fActor Productivity (tfP) 132 ProjectionS of food Production, conSumPtion, And hunger 137 119 Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) Policymakers recognize that increased investment in agricultural research is key to increasing agricultural pro- ductivity. Despite this, many low- and middle-income countries struggle with capacity and funding constraints in their agricultural research systems. Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI), facilitated by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) within the portfolio of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, works with national, regional, and international partners to col- lect time series data on the funding, human resource capacity, and outputs of agricultural research in low- and middle-income countries. Based on this information, ASTI produces analysis, capacity-building tools, and outreach products to help facilitate policies for effective and effi- cient agricultural research. TRENDS IN CAPACITY AND INVESTMENT Global investment in agricultural research, once heav- ily weighted toward the developed world, has shifted dramatically in recent years toward the developing world. Whereas spending growth in high-income countries as a group has stalled since the turn of the millennium, the developing world has accelerated its agricultural research investments at a rapid pace, driven by high growth rates in China and India. Agricultural research spending and capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Asia have grown rapidly since 2000, but considerable differ- ences remain across countries. Brazil’s world-class research infrastructure and outputs contrast sharply with the lagging infrastructure, investment levels, and capacity in many Central American and Caribbean island nations. China accounts for most of the agri- cultural research spending growth in Asia, with India close behind. But underinvestment in countries such as Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Pakistan impedes their ability to respond to the threats to food security associated with widespread poverty, rapid population growth, cli- mate change, and environmental degradation. Although agricultural research spending and human resource capacity in Africa south of the Sahara have grown considerably, this growth has been uneven and trends are driven by large coun- tries such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa. Furthermore, many countries are overly depen- dent on volatile and unsustainable donor funds. The region is dealing with serious challenges on the human capacity side: long-term recruitment restric- tions have left many research agencies with aging pools of researchers. Female scientists remain severely underrepresented in agricultural research, despite their being in a unique position to address the pressing challenges of African farmers, the majority of whom are women. ASTI’s Women in African Agricultural Research Data Portal— developed in partnership with African Women for Agricultural Research and Development (AWARD) and released in 2017—features detailed sex-disaggregated data on human resources in agricultural research, as well as graphic tools for country comparisons and anal- ysis that allow researchers and policymakers to set priorities, establish benchmarks, and monitor progress over time. These data are currently for African coun- tries, with plans to expand to other ASTI countries in the future. Such information is needed to understand the underlying obstacles facing female agricultural researchers, and how to overcome them. The West Asia and North Africa region has made valuable progress in agricultural research investment since the 2008 global food crisis, but inadequate sys- tems, funding, and human resource capacity—coupled with a lack of political stability—hamper food security. Many national agricultural research institutes need to improve pay, working conditions, and incentives to compete with universities and attract, retain, and moti- vate well-qualified researchers. In all regions, the imminent retirement of highly experienced agricultural researchers without adequate plans for their replacement creates concern about the quality of future research outputs. 120 Food Policy indicators: tracking change INDICATORS “Agricultural research” includes government, higher education, and nonprofit agencies, but excludes the private for-profit sector. Total agricultural research spending includes salaries, operating and pro- gram costs, and capital investments for all agencies, excluding the private for-profit sector, involved in agricultural research in a country. Expenditures are adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2011 prices. Purchasing power parities (PPPs) measure the rela- tive purchasing power of currencies across countries by eliminating national differences in pricing lev- els for a wide range of goods. PPPs are relatively stable over time, whereas exchange rates fluctuate considerably. In addition to looking at absolute lev- els of agricultural research investment and capacity, another way of comparing commitment to agricul- tural research is to measure research intensity—that is, total agricultural research spending as a percent- age of agricultural output (AgGDP). “Total agricultural researchers” (excluding the private for-profit sector) are reported in full-time equivalents (FTEs) to account for the proportion of time researchers actually spend on research activities. A critical mass of qualified agricultural researchers is crucial for implementing a viable research agenda, for effectively communicating with stakeholders, and for securing external fund- ing. Therefore, it is important to look at the share of PhD-qualified researchers. Gender balance in agri- cultural research is important, given that women researchers offer different insights and perspectives that can help research agencies more effectively address the unique and pressing challenges of female farmers. Age imbalances among research staff should be minimized to ensure the continuity of future research as researchers retire. MORE INFORMATION Only a fraction of the available ASTI indicators are presented here. The ASTI website offers additional indicators, including national-level time series data on researcher capacity by qualification level, age bracket, discipline mix, and commodity, as well as a detailed breakdown of agricultural research invest- ment. Interactive pages on the ASTI website allow users to access country-level time series data, make cross-country comparisons, create graphs, and download country datasets. The country pages also feature recent ASTI factsheets, other country-level publications, and detailed institutional information on agencies involved in agricultural research. ASTI's regional interactive benchmarking tools are con- venient map-based instruments that allow users to make cross-country comparisons and rankings based on a wide set of financial and human resource indi- cators. The detailed ASTI datasets are available in an easy-to-use data download tool. Detailed infor- mation on definitions, methodology, and calculation procedures are available on ASTI's website. VISIT ONLINE www.asti.cgiar.org CONTACT ASTI (asti@cgiar.org) agricultural science and technology indicators (asti) 121 http://www.asti.cgiar.org mailto:asti%40cgiar.org?subject= Table 1 Agricultural science and technology indicators Countries by region Year Agricultural research spending Agricultural researchers (FTEs) 2011 PPP dollars (million) 2011 US dollars (million) As share of AgGDP (%) Total Govern- ment (%) Female (%) PhD- qualified (%) Older than 50 (%) AfricA south of the sAhArA Benin 2016 30.5 13.8 0.60 201.5 39.2 16.8 62.1 32.7 Botswana 2016 17.5 9.6 2.27 116.0 59.0 29.1 30.3 23.5 Burkina Faso 2014 48.5 21.9 1.01 310.8 88.6 19.3a 52.5 39.1 Burundi 2016 10.9 3.7 0.39 134.0 63.4 15.2 18.7 23.8 Cabo Verde 2016 3.3 2.0 1.17 24.7 89.1 37.2 13.4 72.9 Cameroon 2014 45.9 22.1 0.34 240.1 80.7 20.9 40.8 34.0 Central African Rep. 2016 4.9 2.6 0.40 123.1 64.7 16.0 9.7 25.7 Chad 2016 5.9 3.2 0.05 89.1 79.3 4.3 18.4 22.4 Congo, Dem. Rep. 2016 27.7 15.7 0.24 553.0 64.3 10.7 16.4 26.6 Congo, Rep. 2016 6.3 3.9 0.26 79.2 63.8 18.3 37.9 35.4 Côte d'Ivoire 2014 82.1 39.7 0.53 253.2 62.1 16.9 71.3 36.3 Eritrea 2011 2.9 1.1 0.30 40.8 5.9 7.1 28.4 22.5 eSwatini 2016 6.7 3.6 0.70 26.2 39.7 27.9 38.2 34.7 Ethiopia 2016 162.1 47.2 0.29 3,024.6 88.4 10.5 7.8 6.7 Gabon 2016 1.6 1.1 0.10 65.0 73.7 21.4 25.2 29.4 Gambia 2016 4.8 1.6 0.88 58.8 84.4 13.4 11.5 21.2 Ghana 2016 178.6 82.6 0.91 598.9 66.9 21.3 44.8 36.2 Guinea 2016 3.9 1.5 0.17 262.4 85.2 8.1 14.7 57.8 Guinea-Bissau 2011 0.2 0.1 0.02 9.0 100.0 – – 66.7 Kenya 2016 222.4 85.9 0.48 1,156.2 69.5 29.8 39.6 45.8 Lesotho 2016 2.8 1.5 0.94 33.2 81.3 54.2 13.9 15.1 Liberia 2011 6.7 3.5 0.51 45.1 71.0 20.4 10.6 24.6 Madagascar 2016 10.4 3.4 0.14 214.3 72.4 36.7 44.9 56.2 Malawi 2014 28.1 13.7 0.53 158.3 55.5 20.5 32.8 na Mali 2016 57.8 25.7 0.44 295.6 85.2 14.5 39.1 60.5 Mauritania 2016 18.5 7.6 0.49 102.0 85.7 17.4 20.0 3.5 Mauritius 2016 37.3 20.7 4.82 141.8 70.7 42.0 15.2 43.9 Mozambique 2016 31.8 17.5 0.43 386.1 76.1 37.0 13.0 18.5 Namibia 2014 38.8 24.9 3.09 99.7 70.0 44.0 13.8 22.2 Niger 2016 22.2 10.4 0.32 199.9 77.5 14.9 39.1 33.6 Nigeria 2014 433.5 209.5 0.22 2,975.5 na 29.4b 23.7b 21.7b Rwanda 2016 27.3 11.8 0.44 148.9 63.1 23.7 24.1 14.6 Senegal 2016 51.5 25.8 0.89 144.7 71.5 22.7a 76.5a 38.2a Sierra Leone 2014 15.3 5.5 0.24 123.7 88.1 20.2b 13.7 24.8b South Africa 2014 417.4 274.4 2.78 811.3 76.5 na na na Tanzania, United Rep. 2016 68.5 23.0 0.17 785.0 69.8 29.4 26.9 32.0 Togo 2016 8.7 3.9 0.20 109.6 69.8 6.8 35.5 36.8 Uganda 2016 99.4 32.8 0.62 558.7 60.4 29.9 35.5 19.6 Zambia 2014 26.9 13.2 0.51 245.6 76.7 28.5a 14.1 18.1 Zimbabwe 2014 43.4 21.9 1.44 208.7 57.5 31.0 17.6 15.8 122 Food Policy indicators: tracking change Countries by region Year Agricultural research spending Agricultural researchers (FTEs) 2011 PPP dollars (million) 2011 US dollars (million) As share of AgGDP (%) Total Govern- ment (%) Female (%) PhD- qualified (%) Older than 50 (%) AsiA Bangladesh 2012 250.6 78.2 0.37 2,121.0 78.0 12.4 35.3 28.8 Cambodia 2010 22.4 7.4 0.18 284.4 55.1 21.9 5.9 4.0 China 2013 9,366.2 5,081.5 0.62 na na na na na India 2014 3,298.4 1,067.8 0.30 12,746.6 38.7 18.3 73.2 32.8 Lao PDR 2010 na na na 227.2 84.1 na 6.5 21.8 Malaysia 2010 592.3 282.5 0.99 1,609.4 84.1 49.2 24.9 29.3 Nepal 2012 53.4 17.8 0.28 403.4 85.8 12.5 14.8 43.0 Pakistan 2012 332.5 93.7 0.18 3,678.3 85.5 10.8 20.7 27.6 Sri Lanka 2009 61.8 21.6 0.34 618.8 88.5 46.9 24.2 na Viet Nam 2010 136.0 44.5 0.18 3,744.2 74.4 na 17.8 na LAtin AmericA And the cAribbeAn Antigua and Barbuda 2012 1.0 0.7 2.98 7.5 93.3 27.2 31.6 47.4 Argentina 2013 732.1 474.7 1.29 5,824.5 50.2 45.2 20.8 38.7 Barbados 2012 1.3 1.3 2.01 9.9 70.7 na na na Belize 2012 2.3 1.3 0.66 12.6 35.7 23.0 1.6 23.3 Bolivia 2013 58.9 25.0 0.93 190.3 28.0 17.7 11.0 33.3 Brazil 2013 2,704.0 2,377.9 1.82 5,869.4 71.3 37.1 72.5 44.4 Chile 2013 186.4 134.1 1.65 715.7 66.7 33.3 36.8 29.2 Colombia 2013 253.7 159.5 0.79 1,102.9 40.3 36.1 22.5 25.5 Costa Rica 2012 37.1 25.5 1.06 241.5 25.9 34.3 14.0 53.1 Dominica 2012 0.2 0.1 0.18 3.0 – 33.3 33.3 66.7 Dominican Rep. 2012 20.3 10.3 0.30 199.6 75.5 24.2 10.3 44.5 Ecuador 2013 27.3 14.4 0.18 149.4 72.6 17.3a 9.6 23.4a El Salvador 2006 6.6 0.4 0.15 76.9 78.0 na na na Grenada 2012 0.4 0.3 0.71 1.8 83.3 na na na Guatemala 2012 15.6 7.3 0.14 141.8 54.3 20.0 9.6 41.5 Honduras 2012 7.5 3.9 0.17 87.6 24.3 13.6 5.7 34.1 Jamaica 2012 11.8 7.4 0.89 62.1 66.2 47.2 21.6 na Mexico 2013 710.4 438.8 1.05 3,967.4 38.7 25.3 47.5 54.8 Nicaragua 2012 17.5 7.0 0.38 131.5 60.9 29.7 8.8 35.8 Panama 2012 15.5 8.5 0.74 133.0 87.8 17.7 7.5 56.1 Paraguay 2013 26.8 14.2 0.26 209.5 57.8 37.2 5.4 28.1b Peru 2013 83.4 46.1 0.35 339.1 34.3 27.2 13.1 52.9 St. Kitts and Nevis 2012 0.8 0.5 5.13 4.5 2.2 82.2 4.4 41.1 St. Lucia 2012 0.3 0.2 0.63 2.2 – 9.1 – 50.0 St. Vincent and the Gren. 2012 0.7 0.5 1.07 2.5 80.0 na na na Trinidad and Tobago 2012 18.0 11.0 7.82 83.0 58.1 43.3 22.7 25.7b Uruguay 2013 77.4 61.3 1.40 371.9 50.9 40.5 26.1 36.3 Venezuela 2013 86.2 54.5 0.31 503.1 83.1 48.2 16.3 39.9 Table 1 continued agricultural science and technology indicators (asti) 123 Countries by region Year Agricultural research spending Agricultural researchers (FTEs) 2011 PPP dollars (million) 2011 US dollars (million) As share of AgGDP (%) Total Govern- ment (%) Female (%) PhD- qualified (%) Older than 50 (%) West AsiA And north AfricA Algeria 2012 91.6 38.3 0.21 593.4 69.8 51.3 23.0 37.5b Egypt 2012 528.4 144.7 0.44 8,419.7 86.1 36.3 67.6 na Jordan 2012 36.2 15.0 1.84 272.3 72.5 18.3 35.5 39.7 Lebanon 2012 38.2 21.3 0.95 209.2 58.4 48.2 44.6 13.0 Morocco 2012 147.3 442.3 0.49 556.3 72.4 23.3 40.0 39.0 Oman 2012 110.0 2.6 6.51 243.6 91.5 31.1 25.5 10.1 Sudan 2012 57.3 26.3 0.14 932.8 72.9 na 36.9 20.3b Tunisia 2012 63.0 97.1 0.64 541.6 80.0 32.7 61.8 38.3 Turkey 2012 537.3 376.7 0.51 3,009.4 60.4 32.5 41.6 11.1 Yemen 2012 38.7 13.7 0.56 526.7 78.7 7.1 28.7 27.0 Notes: na = not available. PPP = purchasing power parity. AgGDP = agricultural gross domestic product. (–) = zero. FTE = full-time equivalent. Table only includes countries where ASTI has conducted survey rounds since 2002 (with the exception of China, for which data is based on official Science and Technology statistics). Agricultural research includes government, higher education, and nonprofit agencies, but excludes the private for-profit sector. a = data exclude the nonprofit sector. b = data exclude the higher education sector. Table 1 continued 124 Food Policy indicators: tracking change Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED) The Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED) database is a resource of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) that contains information on agricultural and other sectoral public expenditures in 147 countries from 1980 to 2016. Policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders can use this robust database to examine both histori- cal trends and the allocation of government resources across sectors. It also allows for comparisons among countries within a region or at a similar level of devel- opment. Because the SPEED database covers many countries for a long time period, it allows analysts of government spending to examine national pol- icy priorities, as reflected in the allocation of public expenditures, and track development goals and the cost-effectiveness of public spending both within and across countries. In addition to the dataset in the form of spreadsheets, SPEED includes user-friendly tools that enable stakeholders to generate charts and geo- graphic expenditure maps using menu-driven options. Indicators reported include total agricultural expen- diture, agricultural spending per capita, and the ratio of agricultural spending to agricultural gross domes- tic product (GDP) for the period 1980 to 2016. IFPRI researchers have compiled data from multiple sources, including the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, United Nations, and national governments, and conducted extensive data checks and adjustments to ensure consistent spending measurements over time that are free of exchange-rate fluctuations and currency denomination changes. Agricultural spending in recent years has been highest in East Asia and the Pacific, largely driven by rapid growth in agricultural spending in China since 2005, as reflected by three key indicators of govern- ment expenditures: per capita agricultural spending, agricultural spending as a share of agricultural GDP, and agricultural spending as a share of total spend- ing (Table 2). The Middle East and North Africa as well as Europe and Central Asia regions have spent large amounts on agriculture both per capita and as a share of agricultural GDP, but not as a share of total spending. Among developing countries, agricultural spending per capita and as a share of agricultural GDP in 2016 was lowest in Africa south of the Sahara; as a share of total spending, agricultural spending was lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean. DOWNLOAD DATA https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/F7IOM2 CONTACT Ifpri-speed@cgiar.org statistics on Public exPenditures For economic develoPment (sPeed) 125 https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/F7IOM2 mailto:Ifpri-speed%40cgiar.org?subject= Table 2 Agricultural public expenditure for economic development, by country Region/country Agricultural expenditure (billions 2011 constant US dollars) Agricultural expenditure (billions 2011 PPP dollars) Per capita agricultural expenditure (2011 constant US dollars) Per capita agricultural expenditure (2011 PPP dollars) Ratio of agricultural expenditure to agricultural GDP (%) Share of agriculture in total expenditure (%) 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 eAst AsiA And the PAcific 30.78 63.55 280.49 65.43 123.60 523.02 18.30 34.26 170.66 38.91 66.64 318.22 6.44 9.20 26.02 8.11 6.08 9.28 China 15.71 52.92 269.25 28.96 97.54 496.28 13.04 40.59 195.30 24.03 74.82 359.97 4.79 11.24 29.18 8.43 7.22 9.90 Fijic 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.02 42.32 38.49 15.24 72.81 66.21 26.22 6.74 7.45 3.31 4.01 3.26 1.24 Indonesiaa 6.74 2.83 5.32 16.39 6.89 12.94 34.22 12.50 20.61 83.21 30.41 50.12 8.07 3.40 3.57 9.43 2.53 2.71 Malaysia 1.60 1.88 1.33 3.36 3.95 2.79 78.09 73.37 42.65 163.75 153.86 89.44 8.66 10.02 4.04 5.10 3.83 2.04 Mongolia 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.12 7.87 12.26 16.55 18.53 28.89 38.99 1.34 2.41 2.93 2.12 1.90 0.90 Myanmar 0.28 0.36 1.40 0.64 0.84 3.24 6.39 7.46 26.45 14.82 17.27 61.29 1.63 4.54 14.90 9.25 5.37 Papua New Guinea 0.13 0.08 0.17 0.11 27.27 13.19 34.77 16.82 3.26 3.97 1.63 Philippines 1.41 0.78 2.31 3.42 1.88 5.61 20.20 9.00 22.38 49.00 21.83 54.29 5.72 3.61 7.76 6.90 2.66 4.30 Singapore 0.04 0.06 0.17 0.06 0.08 0.24 11.76 13.26 30.34 16.59 18.70 42.81 25.51 54.79 173.10 0.24 0.21 0.29 Thailand 4.01 3.00 5.98 9.88 7.40 14.74 67.38 45.87 86.83 166.08 113.07 214.03 19.50 10.67 15.97 11.30 5.42 6.46 Tongab 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 8.63 66.41 52.55 10.27 79.05 62.54 1.12 8.97 7.29 0.80 3.42 3.13 Vanuatu 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.27 22.15 23.38 19.72 5.45 3.39 3.13 4.51 Viet Namd 0.80 1.56 1.50 2.46 4.77 4.57 10.69 18.52 16.54 32.67 56.62 50.56 6.15 8.63 5.45 8.20 5.78 8.37 south AsiA 6.11 10.55 23.97 18.78 32.51 73.87 4.92 6.97 15.58 15.12 21.49 48.02 2.86 3.76 5.18 4.42 4.40 5.37 Afghanistana 0.08 0.24 0.22 0.64 3.30 7.09 8.89 19.11 2.54 5.15 4.68 1.91 Bangladesh 0.37 0.44 1.14 1.18 1.42 3.67 3.11 3.09 7.02 9.97 9.89 22.50 2.54 2.76 4.83 4.93 4.96 5.74 Bhutan 0.04 0.04 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.27 76.64 53.58 121.05 212.20 148.35 335.17 23.75 14.69 24.58 19.69 10.97 11.80 India 4.94 9.30 21.22 15.25 28.72 65.53 5.14 8.13 16.02 15.88 25.10 49.49 3.15 4.43 4.99 5.26 4.98 5.26 Maldives 0.05 0.01 0.09 0.01 200.52 22.44 343.38 38.43 38.51 5.36 12.07 1.07 Nepal 0.15 0.18 0.56 0.46 0.54 1.70 7.17 6.94 19.47 21.54 20.87 58.53 4.08 3.67 8.73 9.64 8.23 9.53 Pakistanb 0.12 0.08 0.95 0.43 0.29 3.38 0.99 0.53 5.14 3.51 1.88 18.24 0.45 0.23 1.68 0.46 0.28 1.90 Sri Lanka 0.44 0.42 0.95 1.26 1.21 2.71 24.18 21.73 44.62 69.17 62.16 127.63 6.68 8.12 14.90 5.28 4.04 5.65 euroPe And centrAL AsiA 1.85 12.88 13.62 5.17 24.80 25.21 9.41 50.90 56.76 26.23 98.04 105.04 2.94 12.15 10.65 0.54 1.90 1.42 Albania 0.07 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.14 0.28 22.33 20.45 41.98 51.36 47.04 96.57 2.16 3.26 4.27 3.95 2.14 2.95 Azerbaijana 0.20 0.24 0.76 0.43 0.52 1.67 25.66 28.17 79.03 56.22 61.73 173.16 6.73 8.42 16.73 8.01 4.63 2.79 Belarus 0.42 1.90 1.46 1.10 5.01 3.85 41.00 196.77 154.00 107.96 518.10 405.49 12.56 54.24 35.06 5.96 9.51 5.97 Bulgaria 0.03 0.45 0.37 0.05 0.90 0.75 3.09 58.54 52.17 6.21 117.44 104.66 0.56 12.97 14.50 0.25 2.56 1.68 Georgia 0.00 0.04 0.12 0.00 0.09 0.23 0.24 10.40 31.96 0.47 20.42 62.76 0.04 2.82 8.75 0.50 1.81 2.27 Kazakhstan 0.97 1.86 1.78 3.41 64.24 104.68 117.49 191.44 11.53 17.92 3.67 4.07 Kyrgyzstan 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.10 6.41 7.76 6.33 16.65 20.17 16.44 2.41 2.99 3.87 3.54 4.50 1.35 Latviaa 0.21 0.83 0.20 0.21 0.84 0.20 83.08 372.06 98.86 83.54 374.10 99.40 12.76 56.07 11.85 2.83 6.25 1.17 Lithuaniaa 0.42 0.12 0.14 2.30 0.68 0.75 115.46 37.04 46.89 633.91 203.33 257.46 68.60 25.38 27.67 29.69 3.22 2.72 Moldova 0.02 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.22 0.17 6.07 28.88 23.17 12.87 61.26 49.15 1.69 11.29 8.18 1.38 4.98 2.77 Russian Federation 0.46 6.85 9.22 0.78 11.60 15.62 3.12 47.73 63.90 5.28 80.85 108.24 0.62 9.83 10.44 0.15 1.32 1.16 Serbiab 0.50 1.00 68.97 139.24 14.33 2.30 Ukraine 1.26 0.34 2.93 0.79 26.83 7.60 62.24 17.64 9.38 2.09 1.97 0.60 middLe eAst And north AfricA 8.28 16.48 11.60 20.43 36.97 20.17 29.82 49.88 122.18 73.58 111.89 212.35 5.91 10.77 16.48 2.44 3.27 2.68 Algeria 0.85 2.01 2.04 4.82 29.55 60.52 70.67 144.71 7.97 15.26 2.42 4.23 126 Food Policy indicators: tracking change Region/country Agricultural expenditure (billions 2011 constant US dollars) Agricultural expenditure (billions 2011 PPP dollars) Per capita agricultural expenditure (2011 constant US dollars) Per capita agricultural expenditure (2011 PPP dollars) Ratio of agricultural expenditure to agricultural GDP (%) Share of agriculture in total expenditure (%) 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 Bahrain 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.03 34.98 21.37 62.41 38.13 16.86 0.54 0.41 Egypt 1.62 1.74 5.93 6.37 25.50 22.73 93.09 82.99 9.42 7.42 4.39 3.33 Iran 2.78 5.40 6.34 12.31 45.90 76.72 104.62 174.87 6.67 17.22 4.22 5.08 Jordan 0.18 0.16 0.07 0.44 0.39 0.17 39.67 28.03 7.21 96.01 67.83 17.45 37.78 27.94 5.49 4.46 1.95 0.72 Kuwaita 0.24 0.27 0.51 0.39 0.43 0.81 149.34 118.51 128.74 239.64 190.16 206.58 56.09 0.59 0.66 0.51 Lebanon 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.10 9.24 6.15 8.91 16.61 11.05 16.01 1.97 2.53 3.50 0.40 0.31 0.42 Morocco 0.57 0.51 1.25 1.13 21.01 16.82 46.22 37.01 8.67 5.76 4.21 2.09 Omanc 0.24 0.13 0.20 0.49 0.26 0.40 110.43 51.85 53.20 221.65 104.07 106.77 20.84 15.53 19.57 1.56 0.72 0.57 Qatar 0.37 0.56 432.73 651.25 445.08 1.89 Syrian Arab Republic 9.03 8.37 10.24 6.06 Tunisiad 0.63 0.57 0.74 1.49 1.36 1.76 68.97 56.42 67.97 163.96 134.13 161.59 23.53 16.62 17.09 8.17 5.22 4.16 Turkey 0.95 5.04 11.48 1.65 8.74 19.91 16.31 74.21 144.41 28.28 128.65 250.36 1.46 8.52 17.07 1.03 3.54 2.79 United Arab Emiratesc 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.10 0.13 34.78 15.47 9.85 50.21 22.32 14.21 2.78 1.74 3.58 0.67 0.69 0.09 Yemen 0.07 0.15 0.20 0.42 4.52 7.25 12.76 20.44 1.77 4.67 1.68 1.43 LAtin AmericA And the cAribbeAn 21.61 18.53 14.54 27.04 24.81 17.82 55.58 37.93 42.80 69.55 50.80 52.47 10.23 7.98 6.72 4.14 2.05 1.59 Argentina 0.31 0.33 0.60 0.48 0.51 0.93 8.87 8.51 13.68 13.68 13.12 21.10 1.84 1.06 1.79 0.58 0.58 0.41 Bahamasa 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.01 85.94 47.75 28.33 90.53 50.30 29.84 11.32 14.58 12.84 1.67 1.26 0.62 Barbados 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 121.67 105.27 120.65 104.39 28.30 41.57 2.80 2.17 Belize 0.01 0.01 40.57 70.57 7.13 4.61 Bolivia 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.15 0.83 7.16 1.95 16.87 0.32 3.05 0.35 1.39 Brazil 16.40 10.93 11.72 18.65 12.43 13.33 101.03 58.48 56.45 114.88 66.50 64.20 20.70 11.62 9.33 5.70 2.55 1.86 Chile 0.26 0.56 1.08 0.36 0.78 1.50 18.20 34.54 60.25 25.30 48.00 83.74 3.35 6.82 9.20 1.18 1.52 1.57 Colombiaa 0.47 0.35 0.79 0.75 0.56 1.25 12.57 8.15 16.31 20.00 12.97 25.94 1.69 1.81 3.31 1.77 0.32 0.90 Costa Rica 0.16 0.10 0.20 0.23 0.15 0.29 44.24 24.52 41.52 64.51 35.76 60.55 5.62 3.74 7.68 3.15 1.33 1.28 Dominican Republic 0.24 0.17 0.24 0.47 0.33 0.48 30.28 18.32 22.88 59.53 36.01 44.97 9.31 5.54 5.50 7.83 2.53 1.93 Ecuadorc 0.25 0.32 0.47 0.61 17.97 20.44 34.16 38.85 4.19 4.15 1.95 1.40 El Salvador 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.10 0.09 6.64 8.47 7.29 13.20 16.84 14.50 2.13 4.60 3.40 1.69 1.15 0.80 Grenada 0.01 0.02 102.99 155.95 30.53 9.65 Guatemala 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.14 0.35 0.23 6.31 12.62 6.38 13.54 27.10 13.69 1.00 3.49 1.86 2.72 3.15 1.54 Jamaicaa 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.14 0.11 0.15 34.76 25.43 32.43 55.16 40.35 51.46 7.60 9.25 10.04 2.13 1.49 2.19 Mexico 3.24 4.77 5.70 5.25 7.73 9.22 34.45 44.00 48.56 55.78 71.24 78.62 9.64 14.67 15.55 3.36 2.58 2.32 Panamac 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.08 0.15 0.21 16.93 23.91 30.23 30.94 43.68 55.24 5.15 6.08 9.68 1.64 1.76 1.35 Paraguay Peru 0.24 0.54 0.44 0.97 8.75 16.90 15.85 30.59 3.04 3.61 1.39 1.91 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 34.98 36.64 55.85 58.49 9.17 11.47 3.46 2.33 Trinidad and Tobagob 0.13 0.18 0.08 0.20 0.29 0.14 99.80 136.78 61.87 162.43 222.63 100.70 54.56 174.04 92.55 4.49 3.38 0.86 Uruguay 0.09 0.16 0.11 0.21 27.39 49.11 34.61 62.07 3.49 5.47 1.04 1.72 AfricA south of the sAhArA 3.59 6.66 9.50 7.84 14.44 19.48 7.44 10.14 12.62 16.27 21.97 25.86 3.15 3.75 3.85 2.74 3.16 2.19 Angola 0.12 0.35 0.28 0.17 0.49 0.38 8.48 18.07 9.66 11.66 24.85 13.29 7.11 1.74 2.00 0.98 Table 2 continued statistics on Public exPenditures For economic develoPment (sPeed) 127 Region/country Agricultural expenditure (billions 2011 constant US dollars) Agricultural expenditure (billions 2011 PPP dollars) Per capita agricultural expenditure (2011 constant US dollars) Per capita agricultural expenditure (2011 PPP dollars) Ratio of agricultural expenditure to agricultural GDP (%) Share of agriculture in total expenditure (%) 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 Benin 0.06 0.07 0.23 0.13 0.15 0.50 10.09 8.34 20.84 22.24 18.38 45.95 4.44 4.28 9.85 7.26 5.47 11.78 Botswana 0.17 0.18 0.31 0.30 0.34 0.57 106.06 99.48 139.91 192.68 180.72 254.18 46.66 85.33 78.86 5.96 4.49 5.07 Burkina Faso 0.39 0.15 0.29 0.86 0.34 0.64 38.67 11.46 15.50 85.41 25.30 34.24 28.75 5.64 7.19 45.68 9.01 8.18 Burundic 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.05 4.58 0.28 1.92 13.57 0.84 5.67 3.71 0.28 1.98 5.10 0.33 2.79 Cabo Verded 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.05 5.04 36.25 65.28 8.22 59.15 106.50 2.48 14.15 21.06 3.32 4.93 Cameroon 2.45 4.17 4.16 3.76 Central African Republicc 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.04 7.05 1.57 4.76 13.00 2.89 8.77 3.47 0.68 3.38 9.94 2.04 9.91 Congo, Rep.d 0.01 0.05 0.12 0.01 0.07 0.19 3.15 12.15 25.68 5.13 19.82 41.88 1.08 9.19 20.25 0.34 1.90 2.20 Côte d'Ivoire 0.17 0.10 0.48 0.36 0.22 1.00 12.01 5.69 20.38 24.83 11.76 42.13 3.46 1.94 5.88 3.56 2.34 4.52 Democratic Rep. of Congod 0.00 0.03 0.42 0.00 0.05 0.74 0.07 0.49 6.06 0.12 0.86 10.68 0.03 0.67 7.39 0.18 0.70 6.16 Equatorial Guinea 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.06 14.68 52.52 23.52 84.13 eSwatini 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.07 0.11 0.16 36.60 55.13 63.90 68.13 102.63 118.97 12.06 13.87 16.29 5.68 5.56 4.07 Ethiopia 0.16 0.63 0.88 0.54 2.16 3.01 2.74 8.20 8.55 9.40 28.18 29.37 3.15 9.34 5.24 9.72 15.93 9.23 Gambia 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 4.85 4.48 5.59 14.36 13.29 16.57 4.68 3.20 6.27 7.88 6.91 3.20 Ghana 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.24 2.45 1.96 3.91 5.30 4.23 8.45 0.66 0.44 1.20 0.73 0.53 0.92 Guinea-Bissauc 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 1.05 0.83 0.86 2.26 1.79 0.10 0.38 0.29 1.19 7.77 0.88 Kenya 0.45 0.24 0.31 1.18 0.61 0.80 16.59 6.58 6.34 42.97 17.05 16.41 7.37 3.16 1.75 7.00 3.87 1.77 Lesotho 0.09 0.03 0.06 0.16 0.06 0.11 50.33 16.35 25.93 93.16 30.25 48.00 65.16 27.23 33.75 12.41 3.80 3.75 Liberiad 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.01 0.03 8.04 1.10 4.27 3.97 0.28 1.43 2.76 1.34 1.97 Madagascar 0.07 0.17 0.01 0.20 0.52 0.04 4.94 9.36 0.57 14.86 28.14 1.70 4.28 7.89 0.57 6.10 9.49 1.17 Malawi 0.10 0.08 0.49 0.21 0.17 1.01 10.32 6.20 27.12 21.18 12.73 55.67 9.61 4.62 19.84 8.85 6.86 17.43 Mali 0.22 0.38 0.40 0.50 0.86 0.89 23.02 29.92 22.11 51.69 67.16 49.65 10.47 11.74 6.57 17.28 18.27 12.31 Mauritius 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.13 0.14 0.14 63.56 62.15 60.96 114.46 111.92 109.77 14.07 17.03 17.60 5.86 3.70 1.93 Mozambique 0.15 0.39 0.27 0.72 7.04 13.68 12.76 24.81 7.33 9.78 7.66 7.26 Namibia 0.12 0.14 0.26 0.19 0.21 0.41 71.99 67.91 105.02 112.09 105.75 163.53 19.94 14.03 27.29 6.04 5.14 4.45 Nigerb 0.07 0.19 0.36 0.16 0.42 0.77 7.76 14.29 18.75 16.56 30.50 40.03 5.26 16.17 12.09 13.17 20.02 12.30 Nigeria 0.44 1.82 0.17 0.92 3.77 0.36 4.10 13.10 0.94 8.49 27.11 1.94 1.00 2.02 0.17 3.60 4.99 0.63 Rwanda 0.05 0.27 0.11 0.61 5.08 22.29 11.71 51.32 2.92 9.76 4.85 10.55 Senegal 0.07 0.22 0.51 0.14 0.44 1.03 8.24 19.45 33.31 16.46 38.84 66.53 4.92 12.61 18.44 5.23 7.85 10.60 Seychelles 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 85.62 122.24 137.73 158.45 226.22 254.87 25.15 39.02 49.48 1.99 3.05 2.61 Sierra Leonee 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.14 0.87 1.50 7.35 2.44 4.20 20.57 0.64 0.80 2.60 1.57 0.90 5.93 South Africa 0.35 0.72 2.86 0.53 1.09 4.36 8.22 14.72 51.14 12.51 22.39 77.78 3.91 8.69 29.06 0.51 0.82 1.10 Sudan 0.05 4.74 3.59 6.77 Tanzania, United Rep. 0.19 0.24 0.27 0.58 0.71 0.79 6.49 6.04 4.77 19.35 18.01 14.22 3.33 3.56 1.94 8.55 6.26 2.98 Togo 0.03 0.02 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.18 7.56 3.73 10.87 16.58 8.19 23.86 3.65 1.76 4.14 6.13 3.52 7.39 Uganda 0.01 0.07 0.17 0.04 0.21 0.51 0.58 2.48 4.04 1.77 7.50 12.23 0.43 2.45 3.05 1.87 3.06 3.91 Zambia 0.06 0.31 0.48 0.11 0.63 0.98 6.16 25.67 29.04 12.59 52.46 59.35 4.40 14.49 26.09 2.80 8.30 6.76 hiGh-income euroPeAn countries 102.33 73.59 49.67 95.00 70.95 45.48 215.08 148.58 102.85 199.66 143.26 94.17 25.85 24.65 17.84 1.44 0.89 0.53 Austria 3.94 2.22 1.60 3.41 1.92 1.38 495.73 269.40 182.82 428.94 233.10 158.19 58.80 44.83 32.30 2.32 1.10 0.70 Table 2 continued 128 Food Policy indicators: tracking change Region/country Agricultural expenditure (billions 2011 constant US dollars) Agricultural expenditure (billions 2011 PPP dollars) Per capita agricultural expenditure (2011 constant US dollars) Per capita agricultural expenditure (2011 PPP dollars) Ratio of agricultural expenditure to agricultural GDP (%) Share of agriculture in total expenditure (%) 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 1995 2005 2016 Belgium 0.65 0.33 0.35 0.56 0.28 0.30 64.32 31.15 30.46 55.62 26.94 26.33 13.11 8.09 10.13 0.33 0.13 0.12 Croatia 0.23 0.47 0.42 0.33 0.67 0.60 49.17 106.05 100.51 70.01 151.02 143.14 9.26 18.25 19.16 2.50 2.33 1.39 Cyprus 0.24 0.30 0.20 0.25 0.31 0.20 280.89 296.20 169.06 289.23 305.00 174.07 30.07 46.03 42.04 4.61 3.27 1.98 Czech Republicb 4.08 1.13 0.95 5.41 1.50 1.26 395.37 110.66 90.61 524.26 146.74 120.14 68.66 25.73 16.63 5.27 1.36 0.98 Denmark 0.55 0.59 0.55 0.40 0.43 0.40 105.15 109.40 96.32 75.60 78.66 69.26 7.12 15.41 18.80 0.35 0.34 0.28 Estonia 0.07 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.17 0.17 48.84 89.29 89.26 68.67 125.56 125.51 11.95 17.76 20.25 1.47 1.62 1.10 Finland 8.33 2.94 2.13 6.67 2.35 1.70 1,630.82 560.26 386.87 1,306.29 448.77 309.89 124.67 50.27 33.78 7.75 2.33 1.40 France 10.40 11.26 5.79 8.89 9.63 4.95 174.71 178.27 86.54 149.38 152.42 73.99 19.76 24.85 13.40 0.89 0.79 0.34 Germany 17.93 8.76 7.25 16.36 7.99 6.61 219.56 106.21 88.01 200.25 96.86 80.27 62.86 37.42 32.66 1.09 0.56 0.41 Greece 3.05 0.08 0.65 3.07 0.08 0.66 288.42 6.99 60.77 290.93 7.05 61.29 18.56 0.56 7.32 3.11 0.06 0.51 Hungary 1.89 1.76 0.74 3.06 2.86 1.20 183.35 174.97 75.30 296.64 283.07 121.82 27.29 34.31 12.74 3.51 2.56 1.02 Iceland 0.17 0.14 0.14 0.12 562.80 414.27 482.86 355.43 25.36 15.29 7.22 2.95 1.73 Ireland 1.21 1.28 0.98 1.05 1.11 0.85 335.75 308.30 206.68 290.46 266.72 178.81 19.22 55.45 30.58 2.71 1.72 1.05 Italy 9.17 8.77 5.75 8.69 8.32 5.46 161.23 151.35 94.91 152.87 143.50 89.99 15.57 18.81 13.72 0.89 0.81 0.53 Luxembourg 0.19 0.22 0.20 0.15 0.18 0.16 466.51 480.40 341.59 370.77 381.81 271.49 62.15 121.25 117.99 1.44 1.01 0.68 Malta 0.01 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.11 0.07 35.32 222.44 115.53 44.25 278.70 144.75 8.97 54.62 35.54 0.53 2.50 1.11 Netherlands 2.02 1.67 1.01 1.73 1.43 0.87 130.40 102.13 59.11 112.19 87.87 50.86 10.52 11.28 6.55 0.60 0.48 0.25 Norway 5.28 3.20 3.27 3.26 1.97 2.01 1211.33 692.21 623.78 747.46 427.14 384.91 57.67 48.39 28.12 2.99 1.62 1.18 Poland 2.69 2.91 2.48 4.42 4.79 4.07 69.66 76.30 65.23 114.57 125.49 107.28 18.32 25.19 17.31 2.68 1.65 1.00 Portugal 1.73 1.21 0.59 2.00 1.40 0.68 172.54 115.31 56.83 199.20 133.12 65.61 19.03 21.81 12.75 2.14 1.07 0.54 Romaniab 2.79 2.01 1.61 5.49 3.96 3.16 123.11 94.50 80.73 242.14 185.86 158.77 12.78 15.21 17.08 6.77 3.81 2.32 Slovakia 0.26 0.34 0.37 0.48 49.06 62.49 69.69 88.77 10.81 9.14 0.88 0.73 Slovenia 0.50 0.32 0.24 0.58 0.37 0.28 251.21 158.64 116.97 289.61 182.89 134.85 42.69 29.69 23.95 3.61 1.51 1.00 Spain 6.28 9.06 5.13 6.32 9.13 5.16 158.04 207.62 110.28 159.20 209.14 111.09 16.34 23.44 13.28 1.43 1.66 0.79 Sweden 2.51 1.14 0.83 1.84 0.84 0.61 284.07 126.56 84.00 208.57 92.92 61.68 27.39 22.45 11.53 1.06 0.43 0.27 Switzerland 15.03 5.42 5.45 9.55 3.45 3.47 2,134.22 729.33 651.39 1,356.19 463.46 413.93 198.78 101.97 110.46 9.24 2.59 2.10 United Kingdom 1.56 5.87 3.43 1.38 5.19 3.03 26.94 97.18 52.32 23.82 85.90 46.25 6.40 39.94 21.91 0.22 0.56 0.28 other hiGh- income countries 44.44 62.04 26.51 41.20 58.71 24.74 90.05 115.92 74.43 83.50 109.69 69.47 17.95 19.05 12.09 1.25 1.32 0.58 Australia 3.06 3.71 4.78 1.96 2.38 3.06 169.45 181.89 197.23 108.72 116.70 126.54 11.83 10.39 11.70 1.24 1.14 0.76 Canadab 4.78 5.13 6.44 3.81 4.10 5.14 162.70 158.86 181.13 129.84 126.78 144.55 23.55 1.93 2.14 0.96 Israel 0.90 0.35 0.62 0.82 0.32 0.56 162.51 50.46 72.29 147.41 45.77 65.57 35.87 10.95 17.17 1.49 0.38 0.52 Japanb 13.69 13.31 7.13 10.17 9.88 5.30 109.12 104.15 56.06 81.04 77.35 41.63 14.79 19.27 10.55 1.69 1.33 0.60 Rep. of Koreab 8.39 8.82 10.12 10.88 11.44 13.12 185.99 183.15 199.40 241.20 237.52 258.60 27.27 32.80 36.38 10.02 4.74 2.37 New Zealandd 0.36 0.88 1.03 0.31 0.75 0.88 97.48 213.98 234.67 83.04 182.29 199.91 4.38 10.34 8.28 1.06 1.38 1.32 United States 13.26 29.84 21.12 13.26 29.84 21.12 49.81 100.96 65.30 49.81 100.96 65.30 17.83 12.05 0.64 1.07 0.56 Note: PPP (purchasing power parity) dollars measure the relative purchasing power of currencies across countries by eliminating national differences in pricing levels for a wide range of goods and services. a = last year of data available is 2015; b = last year of data available is 2014; c = last year of data available is 2013; d = last year of data available is 2012; e = last year of data available is 2013, with the exception of the estimated share of agriculture in total expenditure, which is for 2012. Regional totals and averages are calculated for the countries for which observations are available in the years 1995, 2005, and 2016. Averages are weighted by the denominator of the indicator being used (population, agricultural GDP, or total spending). Table 2 continued statistics on Public exPenditures For economic develoPment (sPeed) 129 Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators (FPRCI) Food policy research plays a crucial role in guiding the agricultural transformation of developing coun- tries. To achieve food security goals, countries need to strengthen their capacity to conduct food pol- icy research. Strong local policy research institutions help in shaping an evidence-based policymaking process. Measuring national capacity for food policy research is important for identifying capacity gaps in food policy research and guiding the allocation of resources to fill those gaps. "Food policy research capacity" is defined as any socioeconomic or policy-related research capacity in the area of food, agriculture, nutrition, or natural resources. To measure this capacity, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) developed a set of indicators of the quantity and quality of policy research at the country level. INDICATORS IFPRI created the FPRCI database in 2010 and has con- tinued to expand and refine it. The data presented in Table 3 are currently collected for 33 countries; data for Myanmar was added in 2017. A consistent meth- odology is followed to enable comparison of values across time and countries. The database was most recently updated with numbers for 2018. Analysts/researchers is a head count of professionals employed at local organizations whose work involves food policy research or analysis. To introduce some uniformity, IFPRI also presents a modified quantification of the head- count: full-time equivalent analysts/researchers with PhD. To obtain an indicator of per capita food policy research capacity, this research capacity is then divided by the country’s rural population (full-time equivalent researchers per million rural residents). This helps to illustrate the level of effort invested in local food policy research in a country. This indicator was last updated in 2015. The quality of a country’s food policy research capacity is estimated by tallying the number of rel- evant international publications in peer-reviewed journals. IFPRI views this as a reflection of the local enabling environment for food policy research. This indicator allows for comparison across countries, as it ensures an internationally accepted standard of quality for publications. The final indicator is derived by divid- ing the number of international publications by the number of full-time equivalent researchers with a PhD, providing a measure of productivity. TRENDS IN FOOD POLICY RESEARCH Overall food policy research capacity across all coun- tries did not change from last year’s level, but there was substantial variation across countries and regions. For instance, the number of food policy research pub- lications in Colombia had been steadily declining until 2017 but increased in 2018. Other countries, includ- ing Nepal, Bangladesh, and Ghana have seen a steady increase since 2014. Most Asian countries showed little change in number of publications, with the exception of Bangladesh, Lao PDR, and Nepal, which saw an increase in publications in 2018. In Africa, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, and Tanzania saw an increase in the number of publications. In Latin America, apart from Guatemala, all countries experienced either a slight increase or no change in the number of publications. A few countries, notably South Africa, Indonesia, and Kenya, saw a decrease in the num- ber of publications produced. To better understand long-term trends in food policy research, we calculated five-year moving averages of the number of publications for the period 2009–2018. For the Asia region, except China, the moving average for most countries remained unchanged. In Africa, the mov- ing average for all countries increased or remained the same, with the exception of Liberia, Madagascar, South Africa, and Swaziland (eSwatini). IFPRI will continue to update and expand this data- base to include additional countries to better facilitate cross-country comparisons. This will also facilitate iden- tification of the minimum food policy research capacity 130 Food Policy indicators: tracking change Table 3 Food policy research capacity indicators, 2011–2018 Country Analysts/researchers (head count) in 2015 FTE analysts/ researchers with PhD in 2015 International publications produced from 2011–2018 FTE analysts/ researchers with PhD per million rural population in 2017 Publications per FTE researcher with PhD Afghanistan 43 3.0 6 0.11 2.02 Bangladesh 66 22.9 88 0.22 3.84 Benin 38 4.3 31 0.72 7.21 Burundi 39 5.1 5 0.54 0.98 China 2,000 1,332.5 1,632 2.29 1.22 Colombia 85 6.5 33 0.67 5.12 Ethiopia 141 30.4 37 0.36 1.22 Ghana 153 23.3 93 1.81 3.99 Guatemala 45 11.9 4 1.43 0.34 Honduras 33 6.1 6 1.52 0.98 Indonesia 146 42.4 25 0.35 0.59 Kenya 155 31.6 88 0.87 2.78 Lao PDR 9 1.8 13 0.39 7.43 Liberia 34 3.1 2 1.32 0.65 Madagascar 187 11.5 11 0.71 0.95 Malawi 68 18.2 38 1.17 2.09 Mali 60 10.1 13 0.93 1.29 Mozambique 37 3.3 15 0.17 4.51 Myanmar 97 46.5 10 1.25 0.22 Nepal 27 3.7 26 0.15 7.12 Niger 29 8.8 7 0.49 0.79 Nigeria 349 77.4 53 0.80 0.68 Peru 54 7.2 24 1.00 3.36 Rwanda 64 5.5 12 0.54 2.18 Senegal 71 9.3 19 1.10 2.04 South Africa 198 50.3 268 2.60 5.33 Swaziland* (eSwatini) 32 2.9 1 0.27 0.35 Tanzania, United Rep. 91 20.8 51 0.54 2.46 Togo 81 6.8 5 1.49 0.73 Uganda 34 10.9 33 0.33 3.02 Viet Nam 175 32.5 17 0.53 0.52 Zambia 29 5.3 22 0.54 4.15 Zimbabwe 42 8.9 18 0.79 2.03 Note: * = rural population from 2016 is used. FTE = full-time equivalent. threshold for a country. It is hoped that such data will aid in informing national policymakers of the importance of investing in local food policy research capacity. This data will also provide donors with a framework for prioritizing investments to strengthen food policy research capacity across as well as within countries. DOWNLOAD DATA https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QU15AW CONTACT Suresh Babu (s.babu@cgiar.org) and Paul Dorosh (p.dorosh@cgiar.org) Food Policy research caPacity indicators (FPrci) 131 https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QU15AW mailto:s.babu%40cgiar.org?subject= mailto:p.dorosh%40cgiar.org?subject= Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Increasing the efficiency of agricultural produc- tion—getting more output from the same amount of resources—is critical for improving food security. To measure the efficiency of agricultural systems, we use total factor productivity (TFP). TFP is an indicator of how efficiently agricultural land, labor, capital, and materials (agricultural inputs) are used to produce a country’s crops and livestock (agricultural output). It is calculated as the ratio of total agricultural out- put to total production inputs. When more output is produced from a constant amount of resources, meaning that resources are being used more effi- ciently, TFP increases. Measures of land and labor productivity—partial factor productivity (PFP) mea- sures—are calculated as the ratio of total output to total agricultural area (land productivity) and to the number of economically active persons in agricul- ture (labor productivity). Because PFP measures are easy to estimate, they are often used to measure agricultural production performance. These mea- sures normally show higher rates of growth than TFP, because growth in land and labor productivity can result not only from increases in TFP but also from a more intensive use of other inputs (such as fertil- izer or machinery). Indicators of both TFP and PFP contribute to the understanding of agricultural sys- tems needed for policy and investment decisions by enabling comparisons across time and across coun- tries and regions. TRENDS IN PRODUCTIVITY Table 4 presents estimates of TFP and land and labor productivity measures for developing countries and regions for three periods between 1991 and 2015. It uses the most recent data on outputs and inputs from the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA), an internation- ally consistent and comparable dataset on production and input quantities built using data from the FAOSTAT database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), supplemented with data from national statistical sources.1 Average TFP growth for all developing regions in 2011–2015 shows lower values than average growth rates of the previous decade (2001–2010). Sluggish TFP growth in Africa south of the Sahara in 2001–2010 decreased to 0.4 percent in 2011–2015. TFP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is the highest among developing regions in recent years at 1.9 percent in 2011–2015, but below the 2.3 percent growth in the region in 2001–2010, largely because of slower growth in Brazil (1.6 percent in 2011–2015 compared with 3.3 percent in 2001–2010). Growth in Asia and the Pacific and the Middle East and North Africa for 2011–2015 is similar to growth of these regions in 2001–2010, with growth in China slowing to less than 2 percent, and India’s growth accelerating from 1.1 percent in 2001–2010 to 1.7 for 2011–2015. DATA AND METHODOLOGY The output values from the ERS-USDA dataset used to estimate TFP are gross agricultural outputs. Inputs are agricultural land, in hectares of “rainfed cropland equiv- alents,” measured as the sum of rainfed cropland (weight equals 1.00), irrigated cropland (weight varies from 1.00 to 3.00 depending on region), and permanent pasture (weight varies from 0.02 to 0.09 depending on region); a measure of labor is approximated using the number of economically active persons in agriculture; fertilizer is expressed in tons of fertilizer nutrients used; total stock of farm machinery is measured as the number of “40-CV tractor equivalents”; total livestock capital on farms is in “cattle equivalents,” calculated using FAO estimates of animal stocks on farms, with species weighted by their respective size (nondairy cattle taking a weight of 1.00). Finally, total animal feed from crops and crop processing residues is measured in “dry-matter equivalents.” Land and labor productivity measures for the regions (such as Africa south of the Sahara) reflect a DOWNLOAD DATA https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/9IOAKR CONTACT Alejandro Nin-Pratt (a.ninpratt@cgiar.org) 132 Food Policy indicators: tracking change https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/9IOAKR mailto:a.ninpratt%40cgiar.org?subject= Table 4 Average annual growth of agricultural output and total factor productivity (TFP), and levels of land and labor productivity, various years Region/country Land productivity (in constant 2004–2006 US dollars) Labor productivity (in constant 2004–2006 US dollars) Output growth (%) TFP growth (%) 1990 2000 2010 2015 1990 2000 2010 2015 1991– 2000 2001– 2010 2011– 2015 1991– 2000 2001– 2010 2011– 2015 AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA 190 239 319 335 1,084 1,438 1,887 2,078 4.1 3.7 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 Angola 15 24 62 67 252 315 605 567 4.9 9.8 1.6 0.5 4.6 0.0 Benin 471 582 656 669 780 1,109 1,243 1,485 6.0 2.7 4.4 1.8 0.9 3.3 Botswana 9 12 15 14 1,071 1,090 1,264 1,114 3.2 2.5 -1.5 3.1 1.8 5.8 Burkina Faso 111 145 196 207 297 294 387 335 2.8 6.0 0.4 -0.5 1.4 -1.8 Burundi 526 607 693 642 406 344 301 250 -0.4 2.3 -1.4 -0.5 0.2 -1.9 Cameroon 444 534 661 703 713 842 1,398 1,612 3.1 5.7 3.2 0.9 3.9 1.4 Cabo Verde 256 448 543 440 816 1,263 1,468 1,467 4.4 0.6 -2.0 3.7 1.8 -0.4 Central African Republic 148 197 228 235 526 667 754 758 3.6 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 Chad 18 28 46 45 446 553 759 677 4.8 5.5 -0.8 1.3 2.0 0.0 Comoros 596 606 581 547 409 401 346 311 2.2 1.0 0.4 -2.6 -0.1 0.9 Congo, Dem. Rep. 179 159 160 167 493 347 293 281 -1.5 0.2 1.0 -0.4 -1.4 -1.4 Congo, Republic 20 27 39 43 466 550 761 819 2.8 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.8 1.9 Côte d'Ivoire 208 290 295 315 1,520 1,943 2,259 2,717 3.4 0.9 3.8 1.1 -0.3 0.8 Djibouti 39 29 37 42 267 201 236 250 -1.0 3.1 2.8 -2.2 1.6 3.7 Equatorial Guinea 168 181 231 249 363 277 258 244 0.0 1.4 1.1 -1.8 0.8 0.9 Ethiopia 133 146 253 303 255 218 302 324 8.8 6.5 4.1 -1.5 2.0 1.5 Gabon 41 52 60 65 949 1,245 1,550 1,595 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.6 1.5 Gambia 129 256 296 268 233 323 328 210 6.0 3.1 -5.6 2.5 0.0 -4.3 Ghana 178 312 458 536 567 904 1,134 1,191 7.5 4.8 3.4 4.4 0.5 1.0 Guinea 82 114 145 154 415 433 507 498 3.8 3.4 1.9 -1.0 0.1 1.0 Guinea-Bissau 114 160 224 236 450 609 753 742 4.7 3.7 1.8 1.6 2.5 1.7 Kenya 158 177 285 287 513 418 561 523 1.1 5.1 0.7 0.0 2.4 -1.8 Lesotho 56 77 79 75 436 528 529 464 3.1 0.2 -1.8 2.5 0.6 2.9 Liberia 108 153 156 167 457 525 443 437 3.9 0.5 1.4 0.5 -0.9 1.7 Madagascar 70 66 91 88 610 491 497 408 0.5 3.3 -0.9 1.0 1.1 -0.8 Malawi 245 408 540 513 302 495 625 530 6.4 4.6 -0.5 3.5 0.7 -3.5 Mali 44 61 95 114 822 1,052 1,359 1,501 4.3 5.1 4.5 2.8 1.7 1.7 Mauritania 9 12 15 17 767 830 747 756 3.6 1.8 2.9 0.8 -0.5 2.6 Mauritius 2,528 2,749 3,372 3,506 3,174 3,951 5,556 6,437 0.3 0.4 -0.9 -1.2 1.0 0.5 Mozambique 24 37 63 62 221 249 356 303 4.3 5.8 -0.8 0.8 1.7 0.1 Namibia 10 10 11 11 1,689 1,529 1,611 1,596 0.4 0.6 0.6 -1.9 2.5 1.6 Niger 35 49 77 87 500 545 816 747 4.2 7.4 1.9 1.2 3.5 -0.1 Nigeria 291 387 505 500 1,305 2,137 2,480 2,495 5.0 2.6 2.6 3.2 0.3 0.7 weighted average of individual country productivity mea- sures using average outputs (1991–2014) of each country as weights. TFP is calculated using a growth account- ing approach. This approach defines TFP as the ratio of an output index and an input index. As input prices are not available, input shadow prices were obtained for each country and year by estimating the parameters of distance functions through linear programming. agricultural total Factor Productivity (tFP) 133 Region/country Land productivity (in constant 2004–2006 US dollars) Labor productivity (in constant 2004–2006 US dollars) Output growth (%) TFP growth (%) 1990 2000 2010 2015 1990 2000 2010 2015 1991– 2000 2001– 2010 2011– 2015 1991– 2000 2001– 2010 2011– 2015 Réunion (France) 2,061 3,206 3,203 3,023 8,487 16,648 30,201 43,703 2.0 0.8 -0.7 2.6 0.9 0.6 Rwanda 599 675 1,040 1,010 459 424 536 503 0.8 5.1 1.4 0.7 2.3 0.2 Sao Tome and Principe 289 517 572 607 512 926 752 705 7.1 0.5 1.4 4.9 -1.0 -0.6 Senegal 111 146 197 205 374 395 427 384 3.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.5 -0.3 Seychelles 1,773 1,648 2,701 3,375 236 264 143 155 2.2 -4.8 1.6 -0.3 1.5 6.6 Sierra Leone 147 127 297 351 400 330 858 935 -2.5 11.8 2.7 0.2 5.1 3.8 Somalia 33 33 38 39 816 707 654 600 -0.1 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.2 4.1 South Africa 96 110 135 141 5,713 7,280 10,846 12,926 1.6 1.9 0.8 3.4 1.5 0.4 Sudan, former 32 55 95 89 732 1,106 1,168 976 6.4 2.3 -2.1 3.1 -0.1 -5.5 Swaziland (eSwatini) 220 205 249 264 1,958 1,672 2,151 2,342 -1.0 1.9 1.4 -1.6 3.3 2.7 Tanzania, United Rep. 139 144 216 278 374 332 473 606 1.3 5.8 7.7 -0.4 -1.0 3.9 Togo 223 272 329 329 512 579 667 698 3.0 3.3 2.9 1.5 1.4 1.2 Uganda 384 435 447 441 584 591 455 416 2.6 0.2 1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 Zambia 39 46 89 100 339 362 610 587 2.5 7.2 2.1 2.5 3.3 -2.3 Zimbabwe 127 135 108 111 551 574 497 431 1.7 -1.5 -0.4 0.3 -0.3 0.2 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 255 336 468 526 5,710 7,903 12,404 15,447 3.2 3.4 2.5 1.3 2.3 1.9 Argentina 190 251 285 329 16,647 22,096 29,888 35,954 2.8 2.7 3.1 0.2 0.9 3.4 Bahamas 1,656 1,777 2,234 2,522 3,312 4,621 6,702 8,828 1.5 3.7 1.0 0.1 3.7 3.6 Belize 725 1,054 1,062 1,088 5,076 6,544 5,377 4,974 5.4 0.6 0.9 2.6 -0.8 -1.2 Bolivia 48 65 92 113 1,388 1,509 1,719 1,909 3.6 3.7 4.2 0.6 -0.3 2.5 Brazil 253 342 514 568 4,341 6,699 12,710 16,631 3.8 4.5 2.6 1.6 3.3 1.6 Chile 279 414 519 535 4,736 6,487 8,457 8,914 3.4 2.7 0.7 0.9 2.7 -1.7 Colombia 216 255 310 351 2,907 3,184 3,720 4,609 1.6 1.4 3.5 1.6 1.2 2.7 Costa Rica 707 1,234 1,563 1,740 5,292 6,942 8,831 10,197 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.3 Cuba 694 567 442 523 5,594 5,060 4,865 6,190 -2.3 -2.6 2.7 0.3 -1.8 2.2 Dominican Republic 630 750 1,149 1,350 2,563 3,423 5,972 7,670 1.6 3.8 2.9 1.7 2.8 4.4 Ecuador 410 556 869 1,119 2,922 3,652 5,117 5,141 3.3 3.7 -0.1 0.3 2.7 -0.4 El Salvador 599 676 736 681 1,287 1,529 1,905 1,938 1.8 1.1 -0.7 0.5 1.2 -0.6 French Guiana (France) 875 960 897 900 1,671 2,008 1,817 2,347 1.8 -0.1 5.1 1.2 1.2 4.5 Guatemala 469 634 1,168 1,538 1,355 1,901 2,251 2,547 3.4 4.9 4.6 1.7 2.2 4.4 Guyana 105 185 210 284 3,138 5,650 6,656 9,346 5.5 1.1 6.0 3.1 1.1 5.7 Haiti 582 561 703 863 521 479 584 670 0.2 3.3 3.8 -1.5 2.9 4.2 Honduras 355 442 616 674 1,747 1,762 2,982 3,302 1.0 4.3 1.8 0.5 3.5 1.9 Jamaica 1,031 1,117 1,226 1,265 1,785 2,158 2,531 2,754 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.2 2.8 1.8 Lesser Antilles 1,904 2,015 1,567 1,674 3,790 4,169 3,586 3,670 -0.6 -2.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 0.6 Mexico 216 278 341 378 2,640 3,348 4,497 5,289 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 Nicaragua 162 208 299 319 1,667 2,729 4,263 4,882 4.9 3.4 1.4 3.3 3.1 0.3 Panama 383 367 403 434 3,202 3,058 3,515 3,922 0.1 1.1 1.4 -2.0 1.0 2.3 Paraguay 156 143 245 279 4,638 4,070 6,253 6,943 0.9 5.8 3.2 -2.5 1.6 0.6 Peru 156 255 366 415 1,223 1,754 2,364 2,648 5.5 4.0 2.8 2.2 2.1 1.7 Table 4 continued 134 Food Policy indicators: tracking change Region/country Land productivity (in constant 2004–2006 US dollars) Labor productivity (in constant 2004–2006 US dollars) Output growth (%) TFP growth (%) 1990 2000 2010 2015 1990 2000 2010 2015 1991– 2000 2001– 2010 2011– 2015 1991– 2000 2001– 2010 2011– 2015 Puerto Rico (USA) 990 1,433 1,734 1,664 8,790 11,811 20,998 27,417 -2.0 -0.5 -0.4 0.4 3.2 3.6 Suriname 1,343 1,061 1,741 1,623 4,076 3,112 4,132 4,337 -2.4 3.8 1.0 -1.3 4.7 3.2 Trinidad and Tobago 1,743 2,188 2,664 2,674 2,632 2,992 3,061 3,358 0.9 -0.2 0.1 0.9 -0.2 -1.0 Uruguay 146 191 280 302 11,776 14,487 21,719 23,953 2.7 3.5 1.5 0.9 1.3 -0.1 Venezuela 196 261 299 322 4,914 6,945 8,931 10,510 2.8 1.4 1.4 2.7 0.5 1.5 ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 646 909 1,219 1,355 803 1,104 1,738 2,298 3.8 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 Afghanistan 54 68 93 96 823 643 648 599 2.2 3.1 0.6 2.5 -1.6 -0.6 Armenia 560 509 566 854 2,523 1,188 2,146 3,779 -0.6 3.8 7.6 4.6 2.7 5.6 Azerbaijan 558 335 528 627 2,058 1,051 1,522 1,760 -4.0 4.6 3.4 2.6 0.2 0.7 Bangladesh 1,073 1,610 2,332 2,583 355 466 661 747 3.1 3.5 1.9 -0.5 0.7 0.7 Bhutan 229 306 377 387 650 959 636 582 4.4 1.9 0.8 4.3 0.4 -0.9 Cambodia 275 406 698 836 411 489 755 834 4.6 6.8 3.6 2.4 1.7 -0.2 China 433 691 970 1,093 582 1,053 1,921 2,788 5.2 3.5 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.9 Fiji 608 542 443 464 2,150 1,855 1,493 1,529 -0.7 -2.1 0.9 -1.4 -2.4 0.6 India 719 931 1,292 1,473 624 710 874 951 2.6 3.2 2.6 0.3 1.1 1.7 Indonesia 669 811 1,084 1,224 726 806 1,211 1,396 2.4 4.6 2.9 -0.1 2.0 0.2 Kazakhstan 52 26 36 44 6,803 2,903 3,371 6,122 -7.2 3.1 4.1 3.7 1.6 2.3 Korea, DPR 1,532 1,294 1,417 1,554 1,065 995 1,231 1,412 -1.6 1.4 1.5 2.6 1.3 2.7 Korea, Republic 3,661 5,252 5,703 5,997 2,299 4,699 7,899 10,879 2.6 -0.2 0.6 1.9 -0.1 1.7 Kyrgyzstan 152 161 177 194 2,786 1,841 2,692 2,978 0.8 0.9 1.7 5.3 0.2 1.9 Lao PDR 428 647 829 1,247 472 618 754 1,058 5.0 4.5 9.5 2.7 -0.9 2.6 Malaysia 1,100 1,403 1,868 1,961 3,894 5,327 8,904 10,745 2.7 3.5 2.0 1.1 1.8 0.7 Micronesia 392 380 370 390 558 526 542 573 -0.9 -0.4 0.8 0.3 -2.3 0.1 Mongolia 7 7 7 9 3,827 3,991 3,471 4,930 0.1 -2.3 5.9 3.1 -2.3 -2.4 Myanmar 596 1,000 1,671 1,656 401 587 1,030 990 5.5 6.6 0.1 2.2 3.9 -5.9 Nepal 704 912 1,241 1,508 463 470 474 518 2.8 2.8 3.9 0.3 1.3 -0.8 New Caledonia (France) 84 91 113 128 646 698 699 764 1.4 0.0 1.1 0.8 -0.2 1.8 Pakistan 595 808 1,059 1,193 1,398 1,587 1,519 1,628 3.5 2.3 3.0 1.1 0.3 1.2 Papua New Guinea 1,908 2,181 2,248 2,431 1,178 1,271 1,268 1,237 2.7 2.0 1.6 0.8 -0.4 0.3 Philippines 1,150 1,454 1,758 1,769 1,175 1,312 1,584 1,596 2.4 2.6 0.7 0.6 1.5 -1.2 Polynesia 704 749 969 1,011 1,283 1,331 1,790 1,983 0.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.2 Solomon Islands 945 1,110 1,070 1,111 706 709 773 732 2.7 3.1 1.0 0.4 0.5 -0.5 Sri Lanka 900 998 1,156 1,142 589 645 757 782 1.1 2.6 0.7 -1.1 1.2 -1.2 Taiwan (China) 5,958 6,651 6,201 6,384 4,984 7,669 9,166 9,163 0.7 -1.2 0.2 1.3 0.4 1.2 Tajikistan 313 173 320 422 1,687 697 1,035 1,295 -5.8 6.6 5.5 0.6 2.1 4.0 Thailand 844 1,265 1,486 1,515 856 1,265 1,688 1,942 3.3 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.5 Timor-Leste 339 311 396 354 433 441 436 362 -0.3 3.4 -1.9 -1.8 -0.4 -5.5 Turkmenistan 40 54 81 83 2,788 2,117 2,488 2,334 1.1 3.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 Uzbekistan 259 255 431 568 2,351 2,254 3,684 4,221 -0.5 5.0 5.6 2.0 1.3 2.4 Vanuatu 453 348 418 400 2,296 1,846 2,059 1,920 -1.2 2.5 -0.9 -2.2 0.1 -0.6 Viet Nam 1,590 2,137 2,680 2,890 459 704 960 1,086 5.6 4.3 3.2 -1.0 1.1 1.4 Table 4 continued agricultural total Factor Productivity (tFP) 135 Region/country Land productivity (in constant 2004–2006 US dollars) Labor productivity (in constant 2004–2006 US dollars) Output growth (%) TFP growth (%) 1990 2000 2010 2015 1990 2000 2010 2015 1991– 2000 2001– 2010 2011– 2015 1991– 2000 2001– 2010 2011– 2015 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 1,073 1,344 1,596 1,738 2,565 3,491 4,484 5,240 2.7 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.2 Algeria 74 102 194 224 1,438 1,440 2,417 2,731 3.6 6.8 3.0 2.8 3.9 -1.2 Bahrain 2,424 2,831 2,925 4,933 4,849 8,683 6,290 14,141 2.9 -0.3 10.4 4.0 -0.2 8.7 Egypt 4,179 5,235 5,996 6,399 1,719 2,780 3,455 3,953 4.4 2.5 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 Iran 217 301 531 580 2,568 3,251 3,750 4,035 3.5 2.7 1.5 2.1 0.7 3.8 Iraq 332 313 349 219 4,833 4,861 6,729 5,162 -1.6 1.0 -6.9 -0.2 0.0 -8.9 Jordan 554 722 1,260 1,410 5,760 6,592 10,610 12,845 2.9 4.9 3.3 1.3 4.0 1.3 Kuwait 643 996 1,639 2,412 10,072 13,402 15,574 21,197 4.9 5.2 7.4 3.3 1.5 4.9 Lebanon 1,762 2,082 1,832 1,737 16,654 30,209 40,422 45,724 1.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 Libya 53 65 77 81 6,557 9,904 17,704 24,301 2.1 1.6 0.9 2.6 -0.7 8.7 Morocco 167 170 305 336 1,557 1,552 3,066 3,608 0.3 5.6 2.3 -1.1 4.1 0.7 Oman 173 264 280 337 749 1,091 1,287 1,054 5.1 2.8 3.7 4.8 -0.9 0.8 Qatar 448 708 801 1,014 3,902 11,687 6,560 8,317 5.4 1.2 4.7 5.6 -2.3 1.8 Saudi Arabia 20 16 20 19 2,491 4,109 6,599 8,022 1.2 2.3 -0.3 -0.2 2.7 -1.5 Syria 272 408 448 370 3,803 4,888 4,423 3,824 4.2 1.1 -3.8 2.0 -0.4 2.5 Tunisia 282 302 363 483 3,771 3,780 4,465 5,936 1.7 2.3 5.8 -0.7 0.9 4.9 Turkey 677 785 943 1,115 2,600 3,506 4,594 5,734 1.7 1.5 3.1 1.2 2.0 0.9 United Arab Emirates 880 3,222 2,130 1,995 3,196 13,518 4,508 4,587 16.2 -4.4 -2.1 10.7 -7.2 -0.5 West Bank and Gaza - 1,672 1,873 1,811 - 4,975 4,260 5,343 5.6 -2.9 3.0 -1.9 -0.3 -0.8 Yemen 33 48 79 77 583 606 847 824 3.8 4.9 -0.4 2.2 2.4 1.7 Note: Land productivity is agricultural gross production per hectare of agricultural land; labor productivity is agricultural gross production per economically active person in agriculture. Table 4 continued 136 Food Policy indicators: tracking change Projections of Food Production, Consumption, and Hunger INTERNATIONAL MODEL FOR POLICY ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND TRADE (IMPACT) Policymakers, analysts, and civil society face increas- ing challenges to reducing hunger and improving food security in a sustainable way. Modeling alternative future scenarios and assessing their outcomes can help inform policy choices. The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is an integrated system of linked economic, climate, water, and crop models that allows for exploration of such scenarios. METHODOLOGY At IMPACT’s core is a partial equilibrium, multimarket economic model that simulates national and interna- tional agricultural markets. Links to climate, water, and crop models support the integrated study of changing environmental, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends, allowing for in-depth analysis of a variety of critical issues of interest to policymakers at national, regional, and global levels. IMPACT benefits from close interactions with scientists at all 15 CGIAR research centers through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) pro- gram, and with other leading global economic modeling efforts around the world through the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Tables 5 and 6 summarize results from the latest IMPACT projections to 2030 and 2050. These results update previous projections by incorporating feed- back from the GLOBE general equilibrium model, which captures interactions between the agriculture sector and the wider economy. Results are shown for production, consumption, and trade of major food commodity groups, as well as for the population at risk of hunger, by region and for selected countries. Results are shown for two “baseline” scenarios—one considers the impacts of climate change, while the other assumes no climate change (for comparison). Results for additional countries can be found at the IMPACT website. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE LATEST IMPACT PROJECTIONS The baseline projections from IMPACT indicate that global food production will grow by about 59 percent over 2010 levels by 2050 in the context of climate change—8 percentage points less than would be the case without climate change (Table 5). Production will grow more rapidly in developing countries, par- ticularly in Africa, than in developed countries. Even with population growth and climate change, per capita consumption (assumed equivalent to per cap- ita availability) is projected to increase by about 10 percent globally to more than 3,000 kilocalories per day. But differences in access to food within and between countries mean that nearly 500 million peo- ple will remain at risk of hunger. In Africa south of the Sahara, an additional 41 million people are projected to be at risk of hunger in 2050 as a result of climate change—27 percent more than would be at risk in the absence of climate change. Despite the impacts of climate change, meat pro- duction is projected to grow by 65 percent globally by 2050, and by 77 percent in developing countries. Per capita consumption levels in developing countries, however, will remain under half of those in developed countries (Table 6). Production of fruits and vegeta- bles, pulses, and oilseeds will grow even more rapidly, by about 80 percent globally and more than dou- bling in some regions. Per capita consumption of fruits and vegetables in developing countries is projected to surpass that of developed countries by 2050, with important benefits for nutrition and health. Production of cereals and roots and tubers will grow more slowly, by around 40 percent globally but roughly doubling in Africa south of the Sahara. Developing countries as a group will become larger net importers of food from developed countries. Projections oF Food Production, consumPtion, and hunger 137 Table 5 IMPACT projections of food production, consumption, and hunger to 2050, with and without climate change Aggregate food production (index, 2010 = 1.00) Per capita food consumption (KCAL per capita per day) Hunger (millions of people at risk) Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 World 1.00 1.37 1.67 1.33 1.59 2,795 3,032 3,191 2,979 3,070 838.1 528.2 405.8 598.0 482.6 Developing countries 1.00 1.42 1.77 1.40 1.71 2,683 2,961 3,137 2,904 3,008 823.3 513.3 392.2 582.4 466.9 Developed countries 1.00 1.22 1.42 1.15 1.27 3,384 3,439 3,513 3,407 3,441 14.8 14.9 13.6 15.6 15.7 AsiA And the PAcific 1.00 1.39 1.68 1.39 1.66 2,656 3,003 3,185 2,948 3,057 539.8 249.8 181.8 285.0 207.4 East Asia 1.00 1.26 1.39 1.28 1.43 3,009 3,509 3,628 3,453 3,507 187.2 59.2 54.7 60.3 56.8 China 1.00 1.26 1.38 1.28 1.43 3,044 3,604 3,733 3,545 3,606 173.4 44.8 41.0 44.7 41.0 Japan 1.00 1.20 1.41 1.25 1.53 2,770 2,787 2,842 2,757 2,776 2.3 2.0 1.2 2.3 1.9 Korea, Rep. 1.00 1.26 1.46 1.27 1.45 3,139 3,347 3,429 3,310 3,348 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 South Asia 1.00 1.60 2.10 1.54 1.97 2,361 2,669 2,959 2,617 2,826 268.5 138.3 87.7 165.2 99.0 Afghanistan 1.00 1.37 1.85 1.38 1.87 2,149 2,239 2,452 2,199 2,332 7.0 9.4 7.9 10.3 10.9 Bangladesh 1.00 1.44 1.70 1.36 1.53 2,426 2,714 2,911 2,652 2,776 26.0 11.3 6.9 14.9 8.9 India 1.00 1.68 2.25 1.62 2.11 2,354 2,697 2,998 2,644 2,860 189.7 73.9 45.0 93.1 44.9 Nepal 1.00 1.36 1.69 1.39 1.77 2,425 2,695 3,186 2,613 2,984 2.7 2.0 0.8 2.4 1.6 Pakistan 1.00 1.24 1.45 1.20 1.35 2,379 2,540 2,862 2,507 2,766 37.6 38.0 24.4 40.5 29.2 Southeast Asia and Pacific 1.00 1.47 1.87 1.44 1.81 2,551 2,852 3,051 2,791 2,920 84.1 52.3 39.4 59.5 51.7 Indonesia 1.00 1.62 2.02 1.63 2.03 2,540 2,990 3,281 2,902 3,090 32.4 12.9 7.2 15.6 11.4 Malaysia 1.00 1.83 2.94 1.78 2.81 2,838 3,173 3,462 3,141 3,380 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 Philippines 1.00 1.33 1.68 1.31 1.65 2,503 2,641 2,777 2,598 2,682 12.1 12.2 11.0 13.4 13.3 Thailand 1.00 1.18 1.27 1.12 1.14 2,742 3,012 3,183 2,972 3,099 6.2 3.1 1.8 3.5 2.3 Viet Nam 1.00 1.25 1.36 1.20 1.24 2,512 2,710 2,828 2,649 2,699 12.9 9.5 7.2 11.0 9.9 In addition to the indicators presented here, IMPACT also explores changes in prices, land and water use, greenhouse gas emissions, and other socioeconomic and environmental indicators. For example, when the impacts of climate change are considered, prices are projected to rise by about 50 percent for most food commodity groups by 2050—about double the increase projected in the absence of climate change. MORE INFORMATION More information on these results, and on the results of alternative scenarios exploring different population, income, policy, investment, and technology pathways, can be found online. Results for all 158 countries and regions modeled are available as well as information on IMPACT, the GFSF program, and recent publications. VISIT ONLINE IFPRI IMPACT: https://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model Global Futures and Strategic Foresight: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/ IMPACT documentation: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/international-model-policy- analysis-agricultural-commodities-and-trade-impact-model-0 DOWNLOAD DATA https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/impact CONTACT IMPACT (IFPRI-Impact-Model@cgiar.org) 138 Food Policy indicators: tracking change https://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/ http://www.ifpri.org/publication/international-model-policy-analysis-agricultural-commodities-and-trade-impact-model-0 http://www.ifpri.org/publication/international-model-policy-analysis-agricultural-commodities-and-trade-impact-model-0 https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/impact mailto:IFPRI-Impact-Model%40cgiar.org?subject= Aggregate food production (index, 2010 = 1.00) Per capita food consumption (KCAL per capita per day) Hunger (millions of people at risk) Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 AfricA And Middle eAst 1.00 1.60 2.23 1.55 2.10 2,623 2,795 3,002 2,731 2,866 238.7 229.8 185.0 260.2 229.9 Africa south of the Sahara 1.00 1.65 2.36 1.57 2.16 2,358 2,587 2,853 2,513 2,703 209.5 195.7 150.5 224.4 191.5 Congo, Dem. Rep. 1.00 1.72 2.49 1.67 2.38 1,943 2,392 2,998 2,326 2,852 37.6 20.3 6.6 25.1 6.6 Ethiopia 1.00 1.66 2.46 1.66 2.47 2,066 2,307 2,614 2,261 2,519 32.7 32.3 22.5 35.0 27.3 Kenya 1.00 1.69 2.84 1.72 2.84 2,133 2,395 2,708 2,293 2,504 10.2 8.9 5.0 11.0 8.7 Nigeria 1.00 1.62 2.31 1.56 2.15 2,751 2,943 3,136 2,857 2,964 9.7 8.5 11.6 10.9 11.8 South Africa 1.00 1.49 1.84 1.48 1.78 2,962 3,229 3,397 3,155 3,256 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 Sudan 1.00 1.68 2.39 1.48 1.91 2,329 2,465 2,714 2,430 2,635 11.4 12.7 9.0 13.7 10.9 Tanzania, United Rep. 1.00 1.63 2.39 1.55 2.19 2,178 2,396 2,602 2,305 2,432 15.6 17.8 17.8 20.6 23.3 Uganda 1.00 1.88 3.01 1.76 2.66 2,391 2,585 2,796 2,519 2,664 8.5 10.4 11.3 11.8 13.9 Middle East and North Africa 1.00 1.52 2.03 1.51 2.01 3,125 3,250 3,377 3,207 3,275 29.3 34.2 34.5 35.8 38.4 Algeria 1.00 1.55 2.05 1.44 1.77 2,977 3,098 3,163 3,062 3,075 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 Egypt 1.00 1.49 2.00 1.44 1.92 3,395 3,580 3,783 3,518 3,641 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 Iran 1.00 1.47 1.92 1.50 1.99 3,079 3,109 3,228 3,068 3,129 4.7 5.2 4.4 5.7 5.3 Iraq 1.00 1.80 3.19 1.77 3.11 2,342 2,651 2,773 2,616 2,681 7.8 7.5 8.5 7.9 9.6 Morocco 1.00 1.62 2.29 1.44 1.86 3,287 3,592 3,856 3,548 3,744 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 Saudi Arabia 1.00 1.74 2.68 1.73 2.63 2,936 3,055 3,128 3,022 3,054 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.8 Turkey 1.00 1.44 1.68 1.46 1.75 3,596 3,661 3,698 3,620 3,599 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.4 the AMericAs 1.00 1.35 1.65 1.26 1.46 3,188 3,290 3,392 3,244 3,299 42.5 35.7 27.7 39.4 32.8 Latin America and the Caribbean 1.00 1.44 1.79 1.40 1.68 2,878 3,036 3,184 2,984 3,080 39.5 32.1 24.0 35.9 28.8 Argentina 1.00 1.42 1.73 1.42 1.72 3,171 3,327 3,426 3,297 3,355 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 Brazil 1.00 1.51 1.92 1.41 1.65 3,142 3,336 3,492 3,292 3,399 3.7 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 Colombia 1.00 1.37 1.62 1.43 1.76 2,645 2,804 2,957 2,758 2,867 5.0 3.9 2.7 4.5 3.6 Mexico 1.00 1.33 1.56 1.29 1.48 3,040 3,134 3,240 3,055 3,099 5.3 5.4 5.3 6.1 6.1 Peru 1.00 1.47 1.79 1.69 2.38 2,472 2,752 2,886 2,697 2,776 3.6 2.0 1.4 2.3 1.9 Venezuela 1.00 1.39 1.72 1.29 1.49 2,536 2,626 2,763 2,578 2,669 1.4 1.3 0.7 1.6 1.2 North America 1.00 1.28 1.54 1.16 1.28 3,714 3,725 3,735 3,690 3,660 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.6 4.0 euroPe & forMer soviet union 1.00 1.16 1.26 1.13 1.21 3,275 3,390 3,491 3,360 3,417 17.1 13.0 11.4 13.4 12.4 Former Soviet Union 1.00 1.21 1.32 1.17 1.27 3,092 3,321 3,423 3,287 3,339 9.7 5.9 5.2 6.2 5.5 Russia 1.00 1.20 1.32 1.18 1.31 3,227 3,450 3,532 3,417 3,454 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 Ukraine 1.00 1.16 1.23 1.08 1.11 3,201 3,434 3,581 3,399 3,499 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 Uzbekistan 1.00 1.30 1.49 1.28 1.46 2,563 2,849 3,024 2,819 2,934 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 Europe 1.00 1.14 1.24 1.11 1.18 3,370 3,424 3,523 3,396 3,454 7.4 7.0 6.2 7.3 6.9 Note: World and regional figures include other regions and countries not reported separately. Country-level details are available online. Aggregate food production is an index, by weight, of cereals, meats, fruits and vegetables, oilseeds, pulses, and roots and tubers (which are reported separately in Table 6). Per capita food consumption is a projection of daily dietary energy supply. Estimates of the number of people at risk of hunger are based on a quadratic specification of the relationship between national-level calorie supply and the share of population that is undernourished as defined by the FAO. Values reported for 2010 are calibrated model results. Projections for 2030 and 2050 assume changes in population and income as reflected in the IPCC's Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2. Climate change impacts are simulated using the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and the HadGEM general circulation model. Further documentation is available at www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model. Table 5 continued Projections oF Food Production, consumPtion, and hunger 139 http://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model Table 6 IMPACT projections of production, consumption, and net trade to 2050 by commodity group, with and without climate change Total production (million metric tons) Per capita food consumption (kg per capita per year) Net trade (million metric tons) Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 CEREALS WorLd 2,155 2,746 3,235 2,622 2,986 143.5 146.7 148.3 143.4 140.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Developing countries 1,390 1,826 2,154 1,802 2,106 148.7 151.6 153.0 148.0 144.5 -86.6 -124.0 -224.3 -60.8 -93.0 Developed countries 765 920 1,081 820 880 116.3 118.3 120.4 116.7 115.6 86.6 124.0 224.3 60.8 93.0 AsiA And PAcific 859 1,067 1,195 1,048 1,164 148.7 152.1 154.3 148.9 146.1 -39.7 -69.7 -129.4 -28.7 -8.7 East Asia 393 451 479 464 511 145.2 148.2 147.3 145.4 140.3 -43.3 -63.3 -74.5 -6.9 61.9 South Asia 279 384 454 362 414 148.5 150.7 154.1 147.5 145.9 -5.1 -8.3 -52.7 -21.7 -65.9 Southeast Asia and Pacific 187 232 262 221 239 158.1 164.6 167.6 159.7 157.2 8.6 1.9 -2.2 0.0 -4.6 AfricA And middLe eAst 229 337 428 328 408 149.3 151.0 151.5 146.6 142.4 -91.5 -157.6 -261.3 -152.8 -239.1 Africa south of the Sahara 114 184 254 179 239 121.8 129.3 134.4 124.0 124.3 -32.2 -63.5 -119.9 -57.6 -102.4 West 49 79 110 75 99 143.5 152.4 155.3 146.6 144.5 -13.7 -29.8 -60.3 -28.9 -56.5 Central 7 12 18 12 16 59.3 65.4 68.9 62.3 63.0 -3.1 -6.3 -11.8 -5.9 -10.5 East 39 65 91 64 91 115.7 125.6 134.1 119.5 122.8 -8.7 -17.1 -31.9 -13.6 -21.6 Southern 13 18 21 19 23 182.8 194.8 201.5 187.3 187.3 -3.5 -7.1 -12.5 -4.6 -7.2 Middle East and North Africa 114 153 174 149 169 201.4 198.3 194.4 195.9 187.6 -59.3 -94.1 -141.4 -95.1 -136.7 North Africa 42 55 62 49 50 204.7 202.5 198.7 199.6 191.3 -30.6 -46.4 -68.5 -49.9 -73.0 Middle East 78 107 126 108 129 183.2 179.1 175.8 177.1 169.8 -31.8 -50.9 -76.1 -49.7 -70.1 the AmericAs 600 817 1,033 714 806 120.6 121.7 121.5 118.9 115.3 100.8 189.9 312.3 132.5 131.5 Latin America and the Caribbean 164 245 322 236 295 128.0 129.6 129.8 126.0 122.8 -23.4 -18.4 -5.8 -17.6 -57.1 Caribbean 2 2 3 2 3 103.7 104.9 105.3 102.4 100.1 -5.6 -7.3 -9.1 -6.9 -8.0 Central America 38 52 66 51 64 156.9 156.6 155.2 150.2 144.0 -23.4 -28.3 -29.0 -25.0 -25.3 South America 125 191 254 182 227 118.7 120.5 120.9 118.1 115.6 5.6 17.2 32.3 14.3 -23.9 North America 436 572 711 478 511 108.2 108.3 107.8 106.6 102.9 124.3 208.3 318.1 150.0 188.7 euroPe And former soviet union 467 525 579 532 609 135.9 140.6 144.2 139.1 139.1 30.4 37.4 78.4 49.0 116.2 Former Soviet Union 156 206 244 217 271 162.1 170.8 174.5 169.3 168.9 21.5 62.3 101.5 77.2 136.7 Europe 311 319 334 315 338 122.3 125.5 129.6 124.1 124.8 8.9 -24.9 -23.1 -28.2 -20.5 MEATS WorLd 274 381 460 379 453 39.4 45.6 49.5 45.3 48.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Developing countries 174 254 312 252 307 30.5 37.7 41.9 37.4 41.1 -3.6 -14.4 -21.5 -14.0 -19.6 Developed countries 100 127 148 127 145 86.5 91.1 95.8 90.8 95.2 3.6 14.4 21.5 14.0 19.6 AsiA And PAcific 109 150 166 149 164 30.3 39.6 43.3 39.3 42.4 -7.0 -25.3 -34.7 -25.1 -33.3 East Asia 79 99 93 98 91 56.5 76.3 81.3 75.7 80.2 -9.2 -22.5 -25.6 -22.8 -26.0 South Asia 10 19 31 19 31 6.0 10.7 17.8 10.5 17.0 0.2 -2.9 -11.4 -2.6 -9.9 Southeast Asia and Pacific 20 32 43 32 42 28.8 41.6 49.6 41.3 48.8 2.0 0.1 2.3 0.3 2.6 AfricA And middLe eAst 22 40 66 40 65 18.3 23.7 31.3 23.5 30.7 -2.7 -6.1 -12.9 -6.0 -12.1 Africa south of the Sahara 11 20 35 20 34 13.0 18.1 26.8 17.9 26.2 -0.4 -3.6 -13.5 -3.4 -12.6 West 3 6 11 6 11 10.2 16.2 26.6 15.9 25.5 -0.3 -1.9 -7.3 -1.8 -6.6 140 Food Policy indicators: tracking change Total production (million metric tons) Per capita food consumption (kg per capita per year) Net trade (million metric tons) Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 Central 1 1 2 1 2 9.1 12.2 17.0 12.1 16.7 -0.4 -1.0 -2.1 -1.0 -2.0 East 3 6 10 6 10 10.3 14.4 22.5 14.3 22.1 0.0 -1.1 -4.9 -1.1 -4.7 Southern 2 4 5 4 5 45.2 61.0 73.3 60.6 72.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Middle East and North Africa 11 20 31 19 31 28.3 36.0 42.4 35.8 41.9 -2.3 -2.5 0.7 -2.5 0.4 North Africa 5 10 17 10 16 22.6 32.0 42.9 31.8 42.4 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.3 2.0 Middle East 7 13 20 13 20 31.2 38.0 43.5 37.8 43.0 -1.9 -2.2 -0.5 -2.2 -0.7 the AmericAs 89 127 158 126 155 82.2 88.0 93.0 87.6 92.3 11.5 29.1 44.5 28.6 42.6 Latin America and the Caribbean 44 67 85 66 83 61.4 69.9 76.6 69.4 75.7 7.2 16.7 25.9 16.5 25.3 Caribbean 1 2 2 2 2 34.5 43.3 52.4 43.0 51.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 Central America 7 10 13 10 13 51.0 58.4 65.8 58.0 65.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 South America 36 55 69 54 68 68.1 76.9 83.2 76.5 82.3 8.2 17.7 26.7 17.5 26.0 North America 45 61 73 60 72 117.6 119.0 120.2 118.7 119.6 4.4 12.5 18.7 12.1 17.3 euroPe And former soviet union 54 64 69 64 69 67.5 72.0 76.3 71.6 75.7 -1.8 2.3 3.0 2.5 2.8 Former Soviet Union 10 12 14 12 13 46.0 55.3 59.5 55.0 59.0 -3.0 -3.3 -3.2 -3.3 -3.2 Europe 44 52 56 52 55 78.6 80.3 84.4 79.9 83.7 1.2 5.6 6.2 5.7 6.1 FRUITS AND VEGETABLES WorLd 1,592 2,334 3,044 2,290 2,913 196.2 240.0 284.7 235.5 272.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Developing countries 1,304 1,952 2,554 1,918 2,447 191.2 239.7 290.6 235.0 277.2 15.1 -20.1 -90.5 -14.4 -76.9 Developed countries 288 383 490 372 466 222.8 241.4 248.6 238.0 242.0 -15.1 20.1 90.5 14.4 76.9 AsiA And PAcific 868 1,259 1,586 1,258 1,562 209.7 278.7 358.7 273.1 341.1 -44.8 -141.4 -279.9 -114.4 -213.0 East Asia 609 800 938 820 978 351.0 432.7 430.1 426.4 419.0 -20.4 -5.4 192.7 26.5 252.5 South Asia 158 318 467 300 411 104.7 197.7 366.8 192.2 342.6 -29.7 -127.5 -466.1 -132.9 -460.6 Southeast Asia and Pacific 101 141 181 138 173 134.0 176.0 205.1 171.9 195.3 5.3 -8.5 -6.6 -8.0 -4.9 AfricA And middLe eAst 251 436 661 421 617 155.9 171.4 190.1 168.2 182.7 1.9 33.1 77.8 26.1 57.2 Africa south of the Sahara 101 188 301 173 258 95.4 119.7 150.0 116.7 142.7 -1.0 -9.3 -34.1 -18.9 -59.7 West 40 74 118 70 105 117.2 145.3 174.4 141.6 165.7 0.3 -3.5 -14.8 -5.7 -21.3 Central 10 17 27 16 22 66.0 82.4 103.1 80.1 97.5 0.1 -1.3 -4.4 -2.5 -7.6 East 36 70 121 65 106 82.2 105.5 138.5 102.9 131.6 -1.2 -5.4 -12.9 -8.2 -20.6 Southern 9 15 21 14 17 76.2 89.2 98.3 87.3 94.2 2.9 6.4 10.1 5.2 7.1 Middle East and North Africa 150 248 361 248 359 270.2 284.3 290.5 280.5 283.0 3.0 42.4 111.9 45.1 116.9 North Africa 57 99 149 89 124 228.9 250.1 270.3 246.6 262.8 0.0 16.5 44.1 8.1 22.8 Middle East 98 160 226 167 243 278.0 287.3 291.0 283.5 283.5 -0.2 20.3 55.6 29.2 76.8 the AmericAs 255 351 447 338 419 187.0 212.1 226.7 208.4 219.0 49.2 74.6 123.8 66.6 107.1 Latin America and the Caribbean 164 236 299 224 271 159.6 182.9 202.9 179.6 195.5 46.3 76.3 108.3 66.9 86.8 Caribbean 12 15 18 14 15 192.6 218.7 245.0 216.1 239.1 2.3 3.4 4.6 1.9 1.8 Central America 46 59 67 55 58 165.5 180.0 196.8 176.7 189.6 15.4 18.6 18.1 15.1 10.9 South America 107 162 214 156 198 154.2 181.0 202.0 177.6 194.5 28.7 54.3 85.7 49.9 74.0 Table 6 continued Projections oF Food Production, consumPtion, and hunger 141 Total production (million metric tons) Per capita food consumption (kg per capita per year) Net trade (million metric tons) Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 North America 91 114 147 114 148 233.6 262.4 265.9 257.9 257.7 2.9 -1.7 15.4 -0.3 20.3 euroPe And former soviet union 218 289 351 274 314 209.2 230.9 241.8 227.8 235.7 -6.3 33.7 78.4 21.7 48.7 Former Soviet Union 62 81 95 79 89 181.6 223.0 239.5 219.7 232.5 0.1 5.0 14.0 3.8 10.4 Europe 156 208 255 195 225 223.5 234.8 242.9 231.8 237.2 -6.4 28.7 64.4 17.9 38.2 OILSEEDS WorLd 673 1,033 1,293 1,014 1,246 6.8 8.2 7.8 7.9 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Developing countries 525 842 1,079 830 1,047 7.0 8.6 8.2 8.3 7.6 -3.0 -8.5 -11.5 -7.2 -9.1 Developed countries 148 191 214 184 199 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.5 3.0 8.5 11.5 7.2 9.1 AsiA And PAcific 322 536 713 532 700 8.1 10.4 9.5 10.0 8.9 -35.4 -59.6 -69.9 -55.7 -61.5 East Asia 49 63 68 64 70 10.9 15.9 15.1 15.4 14.3 -44.3 -62.8 -66.7 -59.1 -59.2 South Asia 41 52 57 50 52 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.0 0.5 -4.5 -9.7 -4.6 -9.6 Southeast Asia and Pacific 231 421 589 417 578 13.1 14.7 14.6 14.3 13.9 8.4 7.7 6.4 8.0 7.3 AfricA And middLe eAst 61 101 126 98 118 5.5 6.4 7.2 6.1 6.5 -6.1 -8.8 -13.5 -8.1 -11.5 Africa south of the Sahara 53 90 113 86 104 5.9 6.8 7.7 6.5 6.9 0.2 -1.2 -4.6 -1.0 -3.8 West 43 74 94 72 87 8.1 9.3 10.1 8.8 9.1 0.3 -0.5 -2.7 -0.4 -2.4 Central 4 6 8 6 7 9.0 10.0 10.6 9.4 9.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 East 4 6 7 6 7 3.7 4.4 5.3 4.2 4.8 0.1 -0.3 -1.3 -0.2 -0.9 Southern 1 1 2 1 1 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 Middle East and North Africa 9 12 14 12 14 4.7 5.5 6.0 5.3 5.5 -6.3 -7.6 -8.8 -7.0 -7.6 North Africa 4 6 7 5 6 4.6 5.3 5.7 5.1 5.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.2 -1.7 -2.1 Middle East 5 7 9 8 9 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.0 5.2 -5.0 -6.1 -7.2 -5.7 -6.2 the AmericAs 235 323 371 313 348 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.0 58.7 83.7 97.5 77.8 84.7 Latin America and the Caribbean 126 184 215 179 205 6.6 6.4 6.0 6.2 5.5 27.2 46.3 56.6 43.4 49.4 Caribbean 1 1 1 1 1 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 Central America 6 9 10 8 9 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 -5.5 -6.0 -6.5 -5.7 -5.9 South America 119 174 204 170 195 7.9 7.7 7.1 7.3 6.5 33.0 52.6 63.5 49.4 55.6 North America 110 139 155 133 144 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.7 31.5 37.3 40.8 34.4 35.3 euroPe And former soviet union 55 72 83 71 80 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.7 -17.2 -15.3 -14.1 -14.0 -11.7 Former Soviet Union 14 19 22 19 23 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 -0.4 0.5 1.4 0.7 1.8 Europe 40 53 60 52 58 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.4 -16.8 -15.8 -15.4 -14.8 -13.5 PULSES WorLd 66 94 121 92 117 6.2 7.5 8.9 7.5 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Developing countries 52 74 97 72 91 6.7 8.2 9.8 8.1 9.6 -2.8 -6.5 -9.9 -7.6 -12.7 Developed countries 14 19 24 20 26 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.0 2.8 6.5 9.9 7.6 12.7 AsiA And PAcific 28 37 44 36 42 5.2 6.2 7.3 6.2 7.2 -0.5 -3.3 -5.2 -3.1 -5.2 East Asia 6 8 11 8 12 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 2.2 5.6 South Asia 16 21 24 20 23 9.4 10.6 11.7 10.5 11.4 -2.9 -6.1 -10.1 -6.2 -10.5 Table 6 continued 142 Food Policy indicators: tracking change Total production (million metric tons) Per capita food consumption (kg per capita per year) Net trade (million metric tons) Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 Southeast Asia and Pacific 7 8 8 8 8 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.8 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.8 -0.3 AfricA And middLe eAst 16 25 35 23 32 9.7 11.3 13.4 11.2 13.1 -1.9 -5.6 -11.6 -6.4 -13.4 Africa south of the Sahara 12 19 28 18 27 10.4 12.3 14.7 12.1 14.3 -0.9 -4.0 -9.4 -3.9 -9.2 West 5 9 16 9 14 8.5 9.8 11.6 9.6 11.0 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 Central 1 2 2 2 2 6.7 7.4 8.7 7.3 8.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 East 5 7 9 7 10 15.3 18.2 22.0 18.0 21.5 -0.7 -3.3 -7.9 -3.1 -7.4 Southern 0 0 0 0 0 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.1 4.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 Middle East and North Africa 4 6 7 5 5 8.2 9.2 10.0 9.2 10.0 -1.0 -1.7 -2.3 -2.5 -4.2 North Africa 1 2 2 1 2 8.2 9.7 11.4 9.8 11.4 -1.1 -1.8 -2.6 -2.1 -3.2 Middle East 3 4 5 4 4 8.3 8.8 9.2 8.8 9.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -2.0 the AmericAs 14 21 28 21 30 8.9 9.7 10.4 9.7 10.3 3.2 7.2 12.5 8.0 14.4 Latin America and the Caribbean 7 11 16 10 15 11.4 12.6 13.8 12.5 13.6 -0.7 1.1 4.4 0.7 3.0 Caribbean 0 0 1 0 1 12.4 13.4 14.8 13.3 14.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 Central America 2 3 4 3 3 12.5 13.6 15.2 13.5 15.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 South America 5 8 12 7 11 10.8 12.1 13.1 12.0 12.9 0.0 1.5 4.4 1.2 3.6 North America 7 10 12 11 15 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 3.8 6.0 8.0 7.3 11.3 euroPe And former soviet union 8 11 14 11 14 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 -0.8 1.7 4.4 1.6 4.2 Former Soviet Union 3 4 5 4 5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.4 1.3 2.4 1.3 2.5 Europe 5 7 9 7 8 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 -1.2 0.5 2.0 0.3 1.7 ROOTS AND TUBERS WorLd 780 1,006 1,185 962 1,101 65.0 70.5 73.4 67.7 68.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Developing countries 682 897 1,068 857 995 65.8 72.4 75.7 69.5 71.1 5.6 -0.6 -5.4 -0.6 -0.6 Developed countries 97 109 118 105 106 61.2 59.8 59.3 57.5 56.1 -5.6 0.6 5.4 0.6 0.6 AsiA And PAcific 298 351 365 356 379 46.9 50.9 49.5 48.3 45.6 -4.9 -23.4 -18.8 1.4 28.7 East Asia 181 201 185 201 182 71.4 76.3 73.5 72.9 68.7 -18.5 -14.2 -0.1 -3.4 11.6 South Asia 50 75 103 79 119 27.3 35.7 38.0 33.0 33.8 -6.2 -24.2 -30.6 -12.1 2.2 Southeast Asia and Pacific 67 76 77 76 78 37.5 39.4 39.9 38.6 38.6 19.9 15.0 11.9 16.9 14.9 AfricA And middLe eAst 245 377 524 361 485 109.3 117.3 123.1 113.8 116.9 -1.8 -13.0 -31.6 -16.5 -39.4 Africa south of the Sahara 224 349 490 332 449 146.4 152.7 156.1 149.0 149.1 -1.1 -11.0 -29.0 -17.7 -42.8 West 133 207 297 201 280 197.5 199.0 198.8 194.7 190.8 1.5 -4.3 -11.7 -4.1 -9.8 Central 37 59 80 56 72 172.5 170.6 166.7 167.2 160.2 1.0 2.6 -2.2 0.1 -8.2 East 50 78 107 71 91 129.6 138.5 142.0 134.5 134.4 -3.2 -9.4 -15.3 -13.9 -24.6 Southern 3 4 5 4 5 36.8 37.7 38.7 36.5 37.0 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.9 1.3 Middle East and North Africa 21 28 34 29 36 39.0 39.9 40.5 37.0 36.3 -0.8 -2.1 -2.6 1.2 3.4 North Africa 9 14 18 15 20 33.7 38.3 42.1 35.6 37.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 2.0 4.0 Middle East 13 15 18 15 17 38.8 36.6 35.2 34.0 31.7 -1.1 -2.8 -3.4 -1.6 -2.1 the AmericAs 86 112 130 110 127 55.7 54.5 53.0 52.4 50.0 -0.3 10.2 19.1 14.1 26.1 Table 6 continued Projections oF Food Production, consumPtion, and hunger 143 Total production (million metric tons) Per capita food consumption (kg per capita per year) Net trade (million metric tons) Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change Without climate change With climate change 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 Latin America and the Caribbean 60 82 97 83 98 51.1 49.9 47.9 48.3 45.7 0.2 11.5 20.4 16.1 29.5 Caribbean 3 5 7 5 6 61.4 59.0 56.6 58.2 55.2 0.1 1.7 3.5 1.3 2.6 Central America 3 5 7 5 6 17.4 18.5 19.9 17.5 18.2 -0.2 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.3 South America 53 72 83 74 87 63.6 62.1 59.3 60.3 56.7 0.3 9.6 16.1 14.6 26.5 North America 26 29 33 27 28 63.3 62.5 61.5 59.3 57.1 -0.4 -1.4 -1.3 -2.0 -3.3 euroPe And former soviet union 150 166 166 134 111 89.0 86.5 85.3 83.4 80.9 7.0 26.3 31.3 0.9 -15.5 Former Soviet Union 82 89 84 63 42 115.3 112.1 109.6 107.3 102.9 8.5 18.7 18.3 -4.2 -19.6 Europe 68 77 82 72 69 75.3 73.8 73.6 71.6 70.4 -1.5 7.7 13.0 5.1 4.2 Note: World and regional figures include other regions and countries not reported separately. Country-level details are available online. Total production is aggregated across irrigated and rainfed systems at the national level and aligned with years as reported in FAOSTAT. Per capita food consumption is based on food availability at the national level. Net trade includes negative and positive numbers indicating that a region is a net importer or exporter, respectively, and balances to zero at the global level. Cereals include barley, millet, rice, sorghum, wheat, and aggregated other cereals. Meats include beef, pork, poultry, and sheep and goats. Fruits and vegetables include banana, plantain, aggregated temperate fruits, aggregated tropical fruits, and aggregated vegetables. Oilseeds include groundnuts, rapeseed, soybean, sunflower, and aggregated other oilseeds. Pulses include beans, chickpeas, cowpeas, lentils, pigeonpeas, and aggregated other pulses. Roots and tubers include cassava, potato, sweet potato, yams, and aggregated other roots and tubers. Values reported for 2010 are calibrated model results. Projections for 2030 and 2050 assume changes in population and income as reflected in the IPCC's Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2. Climate change impacts are simulated using the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and the HadGEM general circulation model. Further documentation is available at www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT Model version 3.3, October 2016. Table 6 continued 144 Food Policy indicators: tracking change http://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model _GoBack _GoBack Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED) Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators (FPRCI) Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Projections of Food Production, Consumption, and Hunger