. Summary This study investigates the impact of improved millet and groundnut varieties on smallholder farmers' productivity in Senegal. It explores adoption factors and yield effects by analyzing data from 21 villages in Kaffrine, Louga, and Thiès regions. Climate- Smart Agriculture training emerges as the primary adoption driver, increasing adoption probabilities by 21.8% for millet and 26.6% for groundnut. Improved varieties significantly boost millet yields by 91% (+360 kg/ha), while groundnut yields increase by 40% (+180 kg/ha), though not statistically significant. Aligning to Ricciardi et al. (2020), the findings underscore the positive impact of agricultural technologies and emphasize the need to understand adoption factors better. Recommendations include enhancing training access, tailoring agricultural strategies to local contexts, and considering socio- economic and gender factors to optimize farm productivity and maximize innovation benefits. KEY INSIGHT ON THE USE OF IMPROVED MILLET AND GROUNDNUT VARIETIES IN DRYLAND AREAS OF SENEGAL Abdoul Mouhamed Diouf | Moussa Thiaw | Prosper Houessionon | Folorounsho Akinseye | Omonlola Nadine Worou |Abdrahmane Wane December • 2024 Info Note [xxx] Report INFO NOTE | KEY INSIGHT ON THE USE OF IMPROVED MILLET AND GROUNDNUT VARIETIES IN DRYLAND AREAS OF SENEGAL 1 1 01. Introduction In West Africa, smallholder farms are particularly vulnerable to climate variability (Morton, 2007 and Porter et al., 2014), exacerbating agricultural and food crises ( Diouf et al., 2014 ), as in Senegal, where these challenges undermine progress in poverty reduction. Research has developed new early, productive varieties resistant to drought and pests to remedy this. However, surveys have shown that the constraints to the use of improved varieties are often financial above all but also availability and physical access (Toure et al., 2022). To address these challenges, Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) offers solutions by integrating climate adaptation and agricultural development to strengthen farmers' resilience and productivity (Teklu et al., 2023). Since 2022, the AICCRA project in Senegal has been disseminating climate information services (CIS) and promoting CSA practices, such as the use of improved varieties. These varieties are disseminated in the peasant environment through agricultural extension which uses approaches such as farmer field schools, contact groups, training and visits, open days and specialized advice (Issoufou et al., 2017). These interventions aim to highlight the adoption of climate-smart technologies in key value chains, such as millet, sorghum, groundnuts, and cowpeas (Worou et al., 2023). 02. Objectives of the study The general objective of this study is to analyze the impact of improved varieties on the agricultural productivity of smallholder farmers. Specifically, it is to determine the factors that influence producers' decisions to adopt improved varieties. Then estimate the impact of adopting improved varieties on yield, measured in terms of aggregate agricultural production (in kilograms per hectare) for the two main crops: millet and peanut. 03. Methodologies The AICCRA project targeted 21 villages in the Kaffrine, Louga and Thiès regions of Senegal to assess the impact of Climate Information Services (CIS) and Climate-Smart INFO NOTE | KEY INSIGHT ON THE USE OF IMPROVED MILLET AND GROUNDNUT VARIETIES IN DRYLAND AREAS OF SENEGAL 2 2 Agriculture (CSA) practices on agricultural productivity. The data was obtained from smallholder farmers and control groups in 2022 and 2023, asking the same respondents about their access to climate services, the adoption of CSA practices, and their impact on their yields. A database comprising 634 observations was created. The analyses used a Logit model to identify factors associated with adopting CSA practices and a propensity score matching method to measure their impact on millet and groundnut productivity, based on mean treatment effects (ATT). Figure 1:Mapping of data collection areas 04. Results 4.1. The use of improved varieties Between 2022 and 2023, the data show a notable progression in farmers' adoption of improved varieties. In 2022, only 24% of respondents used these varieties, compared to 76% who had yet to adopt them. One year later, in 2023, the trend reverses slightly, increasing to37% of adopters, while 63% of respondents remained non-users. This increase reflects a growing interest in these varieties, although most farmers still need to take the plunge. This dynamic could be explained by more effective awareness campaigns or better accessibility and availability of improved varieties. INFO NOTE | KEY INSIGHT ON THE USE OF IMPROVED MILLET AND GROUNDNUT VARIETIES IN DRYLAND AREAS OF SENEGAL 3 3 Figure 2: evolution of the use of improved varieties 76% 24% 63% 37% NO YES NO YES 2022 2023 % O F RE SP O N DE N TS Source: 2022 & 2023 surveys in 3 AICCRA clusters 4.2. Evolution of yields (millet and groundnuts) as a function of the adoption of CSA and varieties Table 1 shows that farmers’ use of the improved varieties had higher average yields for millet (526.8 kg/ha compared to 396.1 kg/ha for non-adopters) and groundnut (536.7 kg/ha compared to 450.9 kg/ha). Table 1: Evolution of yields (millet and groundnuts) as a function of the combination of climatic information and improved varieties Variables AVERAGE SD Number of observations (N) non adopt adopting TOTAL non adopt adopting TOTAL non adopt adopting TOTAL Mil yield 396,1 526,8 433,4 382,3 585,5 453 393 157 550 Groundnut yield 450,9 536,7 475,90 514,1 634,3 552,5 366 150 516 Source: 2022 & 2023 surveys in 3 AICCRA clusters 4.3. The treatment effects CSA and CIS on improved varieties of on millet and groundnut yields The results show that training in Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) is the most significant determinant for adopting climate-smart practices, representing the adoption probability of 21.8% for millet and 26.6% for peanuts. Male gender also plays an important role, with an accumulated likelihood of 11% for millet and 12% for peanuts, presenting potential gender disparities in access to or use of improved varieties. Membership in an organization positively influences the adoption of millet, reflecting the role of collective structures in the diffusion of agricultural practices. On the other hand, variables such as age, household size, agricultural experience, area or perception of climate change do INFO NOTE | KEY INSIGHT ON THE USE OF IMPROVED MILLET AND GROUNDNUT VARIETIES IN DRYLAND AREAS OF SENEGAL 4 4 not significantly impact. Although the models are globally significant(the p-value associated with the chi-square test (Prob > chi2) is below 0.5), their explanatory capacity remains limited, requiring an in-depth exploration of other contextual factors to understand adoption behaviors better. Table 2: Adoption factors of the combination of varieties and climate information services (millet, peanut) VARIABLES PEANUT MILLET coefficient Marginal effect coefficient Marginal effect Household age 0.164 0.033 -0.015 -0.003 (0.574) (0.115) (0.564) (0.112) Household size -0.151 -0.030 0.053 0.011 (0.256) (0.051) (0.240) (0.048) Sex (1=male) 0.700 0.121* 0.645 0.111* (0.447) (0.064) (0.454) (0.066) Agricultural experience -0.149 -0.030 0.006 0.001 (0.337) (0.067) (0.344) (0.068) CSA/CIS training (yes=1) 1.209*** 0.266*** 1.001*** 0.218*** (0.235) (0.054) (0.225) (0.051) Mil area 0.063 0.013 -0.008 -0.002 (0.197) (0.039) (0.224) (0.045) Temperature increase (yes=1) 0.038 0.008 -0.024 -0.005 (0.214) (0.043) (0.204) (0.041) Distance -0.104 -0.021 0.007 0.001 (0.091) (0.018) (0.093) (0.018) Belongs to an organization (yes=1) 0.386 0.081 0.427* 0.090 (0.257) (0.057) Constant -1.697 -1.947 (1.679) (1.595) Observations 499 499 531 531 Prob >chi2 0.0000 0.0003 PseudoR2 0.0677 0.0505 Hosmer-Lemershowtest 0.3575 0.3383 Correctlyclassified 72.34% 73.26% Area under ROC curve 0.6596 0.6383 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 The use of improved varieties, coupled with the dissemination of relevant information, as illustrated by Table3, leads to a significant increase in agricultural yields. On average, INFO NOTE | KEY INSIGHT ON THE USE OF IMPROVED MILLET AND GROUNDNUT VARIETIES IN DRYLAND AREAS OF SENEGAL 5 5 adoptive farmers record a 91% increase in millet yield, corresponding to a rise of about 360 kg/ha, bringing the average yield to 756 kg/ha compared to 396 kg/ha for non- adopters. This increase is statistically significant at the 5% threshold (p = 0.015), highlighting the robust effect of adoption on millet yield. In contrast, although adoption is associated with a 40% increase, or about 180 kg/ha more, for groundnut, this increase is not significantly significant at the 10% threshold (p = 0.149), suggesting that other factors may influence this crop. These results demonstrate the positive impact of agricultural technologies on productivity, while highlighting the importance of exploring specific constraints to maximize the benefits of these innovations on all crops. Table 3: Impact of treatment (millet, peanut) Improved information and varieties Coefficient Std. Err. Z P>|z| ATT PEANUT 0.33977 0.2352758 1.44 0.149 MILLET 0,646*** 0,2656632 2,43 0,015 NB: yields are transformed into logarithms in kilograms per hectare for estimates. Conclusion The AICCRA project assessed the impact of Climate Information Services (CIS) and Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices on agricultural productivity in Senegal. The results show that CSA training is a key driver of adopting climate-smart practices, with a significant increase in millet yields (91%, or 360 kg/ha) among adopters. On the other hand, the impact on groundnuts is minor and not significant. These findings highlight the importance of climate training and information but reveal that other contextual factors must be explored to maximize benefits. To improve the impact of agricultural practices, it is recommended to strengthen access to training and climate information, adapt agricultural strategies to crop specificities, take into account socio-economic and gender factors, and further study local constraints to optimize the yields and productivity of smallholder farmers. INFO NOTE | KEY INSIGHT ON THE USE OF IMPROVED MILLET AND GROUNDNUT VARIETIES IN DRYLAND AREAS OF SENEGAL 6 6 REFERENCES Defrance, D., Sultan, B., Castets, M., Famien, A. M., & Baron, C. (2020). Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050. Sustainability, 12(18), Article 18. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12187585 Diouf, B., Lo, H. M., Dieye, B., Sane, O., & Sarr, O. F. (2014). Pour une agriculture intelligente face au changement climatique au Sénégal : Recueil de bonnes pratiques d’adaptation et d’atténuation. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/51331 Knox, J., Hess, T., Daccache, A., & Wheeler, T. (2012). Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environmental Research Letters, 7(3), 034032. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032 Morton, J. F. (2007). The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(50), 19680-19685. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701855104 Nkoko, N., Cronje, N., & Swanepoel, J. W. (2024). Factors associated with food security among small-holder farming households in Lesotho. Agriculture & Food Security, 13(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-023-00454-0 Porter, J. R., Xie, L., & Aggarwal,Pramod. (2014). 7—Food Security and Food Production Systems. Ricciardi, V., Wane, A., Sidhu, B.S. et al. A scoping review of research funding for small-scale farmers in water scarce regions. Nat Sustain 3, 836–844 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00623-0 Teklu, A., Simane, B., & Bezabih, M. (2023). Multiple adoption of climate-smart agriculture innovation for agricultural sustainability : Empirical evidence from the Upper Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia. Climate Risk Management, 39, 100477. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100477 Toure, K., Mbaye, T., Diatta, P., Fonceka, D., Faye, I., & Mills, B. (2022). Utilisation des variétés améliorées dans le bassin arachidier du Sénégal. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/113394 Worou, N., Houessionon, P., Basse, B. W., Yessoufou, A. N.-D., Barro, S., Sarr, E. A., Gondwe, T., Moore, M., Jacob, J. E., Akinseye, M. F., & Whitbread, A. M. (2023). Renforcer la résilience des petits exploitants agricoles face à la variabilité climatique : Implication de l’accès aux innovations sur l’adoption de l’AIC et l’autonomisation des femmes au Sénégal. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/137172 7 About AICCRA Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) is a project that helps deliver a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture. It is led by the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT and supported by a grant from the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank. Explore our work at aiccra.cgiar.org aiccra.cgiar.org aiccra@cgiar.org CGIARAfrica To cite this Info Note Diouf A. M., Thiaw M., Houessionon P., Akinseye F., Worou O.N., Wane A., 2024. AICCRA Info Note: KEY INSIGHT ON THE USE OF IMPROVED MILLET AND GROUNDNUT VARIETIES IN DRYLAND AREAS OF SENEGAL. Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) Acknowledgements Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) is a project that helps deliver a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture. It is led by the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT and supported by a grant from the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank. The authors would like to thank farmers communities and enumerators contributing to this study. About AICCRA Info Notes Titles in this series aim to disseminate interim research on the scaling of climate services and climate-smart agriculture in Africa, in order to stimulate feedback from the scientific community. Photos Cover © AICCRA/Lamine Diedhiou Disclaimer This Info Note has not been peer reviewed. Any opinions stated herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the policies or opinions of AICCRA, donors, or partners. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution – Non-commercial 4.0 International License. © 2024 Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) Partners