SDR/TAC:IAR/96/6 TAC MEMBERS ONLY CONSULTATIVE GROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE Sixty-Ninth Meeting, IRRI Hqs. Los Banos (Philippines), 25-30 March 1996 DRAFT CGIAR PRIORITIES AND STRATEGIES FOR RESOURCE ALLOCATION DURING 1998 - 2000 (Agenda Item 3) TAC SECRETARIAT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS March 1996 CGIAR PRIORITIES AND STRATEGIES FOR RESOURCE ALLOCATION DURING 1998-2000 Table of Contents Page 1. Introduction 1 l.l. Background 1 1.2. Implementation of 1992 Recommendations 1 1.2.1. Priorities 1 1.2.2. Strategies 2 1.3. Outline of Report 3 2. The Expected Development Scenario 4 2.1. The Socioecological Environment 4 2.1.1. Demographic Changes and Expected Responses 4 2.1.2. The Changing Patterns of Demand 6 2.1.3. Perspectives in the Productive Management of Resources 6 2.1.4. The Impact on Natural Resources 9 2.2. The Institutional Environment 10 2.2.1. The Surrounding Environment 10 2.2.2. The Internal Environment 11 2.3. Possible Items for a Discussion on CGIAR Strategies 13 2.3.1. Research Strategies 13 2.3.2. Organizational Strategies 13 ii 3. Analytical Framework 15 3.1. Introduction 15 3.2. The Framework 16 3.3. The Process 16 3.4. Agricultural Research, Productivity, and Income Growth 18 3.5. Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation 21 3.6. Agricultural Research and the Conservation of Natural Resources 22 3.7. Methods for Setting Priorities for Agricultural Research 25 3.8. Poverty as an Element in Priority Setting 26 3.9. Other Elements Considered in Priority Setting 29 3.10. Conclusions 32 4. Overview of Outcome of Recent Studies Relevant to CGIAR Priorities and Strategies 33 4.1. Background 33 4.2. The Lucerne Declaration and Action Programme 33 4.3. World Agriculture Towards 2010 34 4.4. 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment 37 4.5. Genetic Resources Policy Committee 38 4.6. Task Force on Sustainable Agriculture 39 4.7. Task Force on Ecoregional Approaches 39 4.8. Action Plan to Strengthen NARS-CGIAR Partnership 40 4.9 TAC Commissioned Studies 40 4.9.1. Stripe Study of Genetic Resources in the CGIAR 40 4.9.2. Inter-Centre Review of Rice 41 4.9.3. Livestock 42 4.9.4. Review of CGIAR Commitments in West Africa 44 4.9.5. Inter-Centre Review of Root and Tuber Crops 45 4.9.6. Soil and Water Aspects of Natural Resources Management Research 46 4.9.7. Public Policy and Public Management Research 47 4.9.8. Institution Strengthening Research and Services 48 4.9.9. ICLARM Mid-Term Review 49 5. Analytical Process: Activities 51 5.1. Increasing Productivity 52 5.1.1. Germplasm Enhancement and Breeding 52 5.1.2. Production Systems Development and Management 53 iii 5.2. Protecting the Environment 55 5.3. Saving Biodiversity 56 5.4. Improving Policies 57 5.5. Strengthening National Programmes 58 6. Analysis By Production Sector and Commodity 60 6.1. Production Sectors 60 6.2. Analysis by Commodity 61 7. Systemwide Programmes and the Ecoregional Approach 69 7.1. Introduction 69 7.2. Background 69 7.2.1. Terminology 70 7.3. An Overview of CGIAR Experience in the Initiation and Implementation of Systemwide Programmes and the Ecoregional Approach 71 7.4. Analysis and Recommendations 74 7.4.1. A Classification of the CGIAR’s Systemwide Activities 74 7.4.2. TAC’s Proposals for the Management of Systemwide Activities 75 7.4.3. Will New Systemwide Activities be Required During the Period 1998-2000 77 8. Recommendations on Future Priorities and Strategies 80 8.1. By Activity 80 ANNEXES I. Activities and their Definitions II. Methodology III. Crops, Livestock, Forestry and Agroforestry, Fisheries IV. Selected Tables of Quantitative Analysis V. Synthesis Tables on Systemwide Initiatives/Programmes CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1.1. Background This report presents TAC’s current views on CGIAR priorities and strategies for resource allocation in 1998-2000. Priority setting is essential in order to ensure efficient use of increasingly scarce resources by directing them to activities that most effectively help to meet the CGIAR’s goals. As formulated in the Lucerne Declaration, "the mission of the CGIAR is to contribute, through its research, to promoting sustainable agriculture for food security in developing countries". TAC produces an updated report on CGIAR priorities and strategies every five years. The last report was completed in 1992 and previous reports have been prepared in 1973, 1976, 1979 and 1986. The attached report has been prepared a year early because there was a perceived need for an updated report after the Lucerne Consultation on the renewal of the CGIAR, and the realization that there was a need to advance the medium-term resource allocation cycle by one year. The 1992 report provided the basis for resource allocation during 1994-98 but, as proposed by TAC in its 1996 Research Agenda paper, this cycle would be completed a year early during 1997 and the new three-year cycle would start in 1998. The Committee’s recommendations on priorities, as reported in this paper, are made at the broad System level. TAC will consider the programme priorities of the centres when it assesses their medium-term plans. In its considerations on future priorities, the Committee has given substantial attention to the fact that the CGIAR System is only one component in the global agricultural research system for developing countries and commands less than 4% of its resources. TAC also carefully considered the outcome of each of the regional fora of national research systems where NARS expressed their views on future CGIAR priorities. 1.2. Implementation of 1992 Recommendations In its 1992 report, TAC made recommendations on future CGIAR priorities by region, activity, commodity, agroecological zone, and production sector. 1.2.1. Priorities • Region TAC considered that the share of resources allocated to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and to WANA should be modestly reduced while the share allocated to Asia in particular, and Latin America should be increased. By 1996 the allocation of CGIAR resources had decreased from 43% to 40% in SSA, and from 13% to 11% in WANA. The allocation to Asia and Latin America had increased from 29% to 31 % and from 15% to 18% respectively. Overall, the broad directions recommended by TAC have been followed although the increased share of CGIAR resources to Asia is still well below that recommended by TAC. 2 • Activities TAC recommended a significant increase in research efforts on natural resources conservation and management and on socioeconomics, public policy and public management. It also recommended a reduction in investment in production systems work and in strengthening NARS. These recommendations were implemented broadly although TAC notes with concern the erosion of support to research on germplasm enhancement and breeding. • Commodities TAC had reaffirmed the priority given to cereal and root and tuber crops. Among food legumes, it proposed a reduction in the level of priority to the phaseolus bean and pigeonpea, while increasing the priority to soybean and groundnut. Overall, TAC’s recommendations have been broadly implemented except for the reduction in investment in pigeonpea research. Investment in livestock research was well below the level that TAC had recommended. • Agroecological Zones TAC recommended a shift towards a greater effort in tropical areas and on the basis of available data this recommendation has been followed up on. • Production Sectors TAC did not make a recommendation on the level of priority across production sectors but noted that the proposed new programmes in forestry and fisheries should not be funded at the expense of critical research needs in crops and livestock. While these new production sectors brought some new resources to the CGIAR, given the funding crisis in the CGIAR during 1992-94, it is also clear that there has been some competition for funding between the different production sectors. 1.2.2. Strategies • Global and Ecoregional Activities TAC envisaged the CGIAR as having two major types of activities: global and ecoregional. TAC developed the basic framework for what it called the ecoregional approach to research which had three aspects: conducting applied and strategic research on the basis of sustainable production systems; improving productivity in the ecoregion by drawing in appropriate global research activities; and strengthening the cooperation with national partners and developing transnational mechanisms for collaboration. It was considered that the global community did not yet have an effective paradigm for sustainable improvement of productivity. Identifying such a paradigm and making it operational was seen as a goal of truly international relevance and significance. By 1996, the CGIAR was well underway in implementing TAC’s views on this matter. Programmes 3 have now been set up in each of the major ecoregions and there has been a rapid expansion of the CGIAR’s work in this area. • Collaboration TAC considered that new modes of operation were needed for both the ecoregional approach and for closer collaboration with other international sources of expertise. Substantial progress has since been made on the development of consortia and on much closer collaboration with national research systems and advanced research institutes. • Institutional Options At the request of the CGIAR, TAC carefully considered the optimal future structure of the CGIAR. The Group chose, however, not to proceed with the restructuring of the CGIAR while it was launching its process of renewal. As indicated in its 1992 report, TAC also proceeded with stripe reviews of rice, genetic resources, roots and tubers, livestock, policy and management, institution strengthening, and postharvest technology research. • Systemwide Programmes In 1992, TAC had recommended that in addition to support of CGIAR Centres, the Group should also support Systemwide programmes which addressed issues of high priority to the System as a whole but not necessarily to the individual centres concerned. Several such programmes were developed and implemented as reported upon elsewhere in this paper. 1.3. Outline of Report (TO FOLLOW) 4 CHAPTER 2 - THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO As a background for TAC’s decision-making on priorities and strategies for the coming years, this chapter attempts to discuss development trends in agriculture1, with a special focus on developing countries. The first section on the socioecological environment highlights demographic trends and associated demands, with special reference to the poor; to then discuss trends in the productive management of resources and corresponding research strategies, including environmental impacts. The second section deals with latest changes in the institutional environment, both outside and inside the CGIAR. Finally, regarding TAC’s discussion on future CGIAR strategies, in the last section a set of possible items for the agenda is raised. 2.1. The Socioecological Environment Population growth, agricultural performance and environmental degradation are the overarching concerns in agricultural development. Poverty and environmental degradation are closely linked, often in a self-perpetuating negative spiral in which poverty accelerates degradation, and the latter exacerbates the former. 2.1.1. Demographic Changes and Expected Responses In the coming 25 years the world population is expected increase by 2.3 billion people, 93% of them in the developing world. Absolute population increase will be highest in Asia (1.6 bln) and lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean (240 min)2. However, in relative terms, Africa will more than double its present population, going from 0.6 to 1.4 bln. Furthermore, projections indicate that this time no significant progress will be made on the incidence of poverty, that had declined in the two decades to the mid-1980s. The absolute number of 1.1 bln people that are poor today will remain the same in the year 20003, as shown in Table 1. The highest incidence of poverty is encountered in South-Asia, where close to 50% of the population is below the poverty line, followed by 19% in Sub-Saharan Africa, 15% in East Asia, and 10% in Latin America and the Caribbean. But they are projected to increase by 40% in Africa, which will then account for 27% of the developing world’s poor. Rural poor make up more than 75% of the poor in many Sub-Saharan and South Asian countries. Urban poor are a slight majority in Latin America, although the poorest of the poor are still found in rural areas. Studies on rural poverty identify the small farmers, the Agriculture and natural resources use are inextricably related. Hereafter, therefore, agriculture is understood throughout to mean the development of agriculture and natural resources, including forestry and fisheries. 2 Pinstrup-Andersen, P. and R. Pandya-Lorch, 1994. Alleviating Poverty, Intensifying Agriculture, and Effectively Managing Natural Resources. IFPRI - Food, Agriculture and the Environment, Discussion Paper 1. Washington, D.C. 3 World Bank, 1992. World Development Report. New York, Oxford University Press. 5 landless, the women, the nomadic pastoralists, the artisanal fishermen, the indigenous ethnic groups and the displaced persons as the functionally vulnerable groups in the rural sector4. Table 1. Number of People Below the Poverty Line5, 1990 and 2000 REGIONS 1990 (millions) 2000 (millions) Latin America and the Caribbean 108 126 Middle East and North Africa 73 89 Sub-Saharan Africa 216 304 East Asia 169 73 South Asia 562 511 TOTAL 1128 1103 There is a general consensus that population growth and raising incomes will increase the global demand for food by 2025 to more than double current production levels6. There are diverging views on the capacity to mobilize resources to meet such demands. Conventional estimates give reasonable hope that they can be met at the global level without price increases, while others say that this can result only from the mining of natural capital, i.e., at the cost of future production. Most agree, however, that meeting demands in developing countries will require them to significantly increase their capacity to feed themselves. Nonetheless, food shortages are expected to occur in both Asia and Africa, and may be especially severe in the latter. If present trends continue, by 2025 Africa could well have an annual food gap of 214 min tons, as compared to the current 11 min. Estimates for Asia show the expected gap to reach 255 min. Present production levels of captured and cultured fish amount to 90 and 12 min tons respectively. In developing countries fish make up 19% of animal protein consumption (4% of total), while they provide only 0.006% of dietary energy supplies. As total marine catches are not likely to exceed 100 min tons by 20107, there will be severe constraints to increasing aggregate fish production. Aquaculture production may, however, reach the 15-20 min tons level in 2010, assuming that the prevailing growth rate is maintained. 4 FAO, 1995. World Agriculture: Towards 2010, An FAO Study. Ed. by N. Alexandratos 5 Taken as below US$ 370 of 1985 in purchasing power parity dollars 6 McCalla, A.F., 1994. Agriculture and Food Needs to 2025: Why We Should be Concerned. CGIAR - Sir John Crawford Memorial Lecture, October 27 - Washington, D.C. 7 FAO, 1995. World Agriculture: Towards 2010, An FAO Study. Ed. by N. Alexandratos 6 The quantity of wood used directly in generating energy is about 1.8 bln m3, around half of all the wood consumed. This, and the 300 min m3 of recovered residues from the manufacturing industry, make a total equivalent to 0.52 bln tons of oil, or approximately 5% of the world energy consumption. Fuelwood consumption in developing countries represents 80% of their annual wood production, and is expected to grow at 1.4% per year, lower than population growth. It would then reach the 2.4 bln m3 in 2010. 2.1.2. The Changing Patterns of Demand Given rapid population and income growth, market demands for foodgrains and livestock products are expected to grow much faster in developing than developed countries8. It is estimated that average per capita demand for foodgrains in developing countries will grow 0.4% per year between 1990 and 2020, and demand for livestock products by 1.5%. As a consequence, over that period countries market demand for foodgrains in such countries will grow by 75% to 1.7 bln tons, and that for livestock by 155% to 110 min tons. Urban population of least-developed countries is projected to increase by 4.6% per year, 43% expected to be urbanized by 20259. There will be more than 200 cities with populations over 1 min, but the greater part of the urbanized people will live in cities of less than 0.5 min. This urbanization trend will increase problems of food supply and distribution, compounded by income differences. Incomes of certain segments of urban populations are rising rapidly, leading to increasing demand for more expensive and diversified foods, such as high quality cereal, livestock, fish and horticultural, and forest (spices) products. However, the majority of urban dwellers in most developing countries remain with limited purchasing power, making the supply of low-cost but nutritious food a pressing concern. 2.1.3. Perspectives in the Productive Management of Resources The goal of the "renewed" CGIAR is to conduct research that will help liberate the deprived and disadvantaged from the grip of extreme poverty and hunger. The central themes of the CGIAR Vision are then: less poverty; a healthier, better nourished human family; reduced pressure on fragile natural resources; and people centred policies for sustainable development10. The emphasis on poverty would indicate a shift from the one on sustainability of natural resources that guided the past TAC analysis of priorities and strategies for the CGIAR. It should not be seen, however, as a deviation from such a goal. It is a new stage building upon the knowledge and insights of the preceding ones, in the evolutionary path towards a broader view of agricultural development in response to changing socioecological environments. 8 IFPRI, 1995. A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment: The Vision, Challenge, and Recommended Action. Washington, D.C. 9 UN Economic and Social Council, 1995. Concise Report on the Monitoring of World Population Trends and Policies - Report of the Secretary General, January. 10 Serageldin, I., 1995. Foreword. In Background Documents on Major Issues. Ministerial-Level Meeting, Lucerne - 9-10 February. CGIAR. 7 A brief overview of CGIAR shifts in emphasis may serve to trace the evolutionary path, and to show how the various "paradigms" complement each other11. The first stage emphasized production aspects, focusing on crop improvement through "seed-embodied" technologies that resulted in higher "piles" of rice and wheat, albeit with uneven adoption rates. These triggered the poor farmer-centred socioeconomic stage focused on "constraints research" in small-scale systems, and broaden the analysis to the human-ecological environment where technologies had to fit. This wider analytical context, and the impact on society of an increasing environmental degradation, shifted the emphasis towards natural resources, with special focus on their conservation. In recognition that the sustainability of natural resources could not be pursued independently or in opposition to the interests of the poor, and particularly to the rural poor, the present emphasis is now shifting to the stage of environment-agriculture-poverty "integration", with poverty alleviation as the central nexus between agricultural production and environmental degradation. As indicated by the overview, research strategies have been adapted to prevailing circumstances influencing farmers decision-making. In a schematic way, two are the prevailing resource management "macro" trends for the coming 20 years: "market"- and "consumption"-oriented. The former includes producers that manage resources primarily to supply growing demands by an increasing urbanized population. Their behaviour is driven by external changes in demands and technologies, following the "induced-innovation" that drove the green revolution to its great success12. These market-driven producers will probably continue to focus on tradable commodities, requiring a re-invented green revolution that integrates "seed-embodied" technologies with "management" of the resource base. The former should further increase the yield potential of new varieties, and the latter should allow the sustainable expression of such potentials; moving further the "production" strategy to the first and the second post-green revolution phases13. Producers closer to the "consumption" paradigm exploit land heterogeneity primarily to meet such needs, and complementarily to serve special market "niches". Their "intensification" behaviour responds to increasing population pressures through labour- intensive landscape arrangements and increasing cropping frequencies14, making them prone to an "integration" strategy. Their intensification is induced largely by endogenous mechanisms, derived from experimentation and accumulated wisdom. Market ventures are based on high-value, marketable products, as those produced from trees/shrubs and 11 Rhoades, R., 1989. Evolution of Agricultural Research and Development Since 1950: Toward an Integrated Framework. IIED, Gatekeeper Series No. SA12. 12 Hayami, Y. and V. Ruttan, 1985. Agricultural Development: An International Perspective. Baltimore, Md; John Hopkins University Press. 13 Byerlee, D., 1994. Technology Transfer Systems for Improved Crop Management: Lessons for the Future. In Agricultural Technology: Policy Issues for the International Community. Ed. by J. Anderson. CAB International/World Bank 14 Kleiver, K.M. and G. A. Schreiber, 1994. Reversing the Spiral: The Population, Agriculture, and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank. Tiffen, M., M. Mortimore and F. Gichuki, 1994. More People, Less Erosion: Environmental Recovery in Kenya. John Wiley & Sons. 8 horticulture crops. Such "non-basic" commodities facilitate a dynamic diversification of their economy, and are pliable to the landscaping approach to overcome constraints in natural resources. The full exploitation of this model, however, seems to be linked to the promotion of rural manufacturing. The processing of primary products plays an incentive role for rural development through synergistic effects between agricultural and non-agricultural growth, which promise to alleviate poverty beyond the effects of production increases alone15. Studies in the last years have documented the intensification effect of population pressure on land use, largely through the labour-intensive creation of "resource" capital. What this model requires for further development is the critical link between intensification and material well-being16. It has been suggested that this link is still weak because smallholders, especially in Africa, have not found technological breakthroughs that shift per capita production and incomes to new levels. Given the nature of the model, such innovations might benefit from both a "pluralistic" approach (combining traditional and "modern" technologies) and the "blending" of new information into old practices17. Their generation would require the contribution of multiple sources through a participatory approach18. The "production" and the "integration" perspectives should not be seen as exclusive of each other, but rather as strongly complementary ways to achieve food security through sustainable agricultural development. Actually, a basic condition for the diversification from staple food crops to highly-valued commercial commodities advocated in the integration strategy is a sustainable increase in crop production to outgrow demand, so that such diversification is profitable. Efforts should be intensified to maintain growth trends in the staple food crops perspective, together with the search for resource management systems that combine consumption crops with marketable commodities. "Otherwise, agricultural development through significant diversification will soon be trapped by the tradeoff between food and cash crops, as was observed in the past...with consequent stagnation, poverty and inequality"19. 15 Von Braun, J. and R. Pandya-Lorch, 1991. Income Sources of Malnourished People in Rural Areas: Microlevel Information and Policy Implications. IFPRI - Working Papers on Commercialization of Agriculture and Nutrition No. 5. Washington, D.C. 16 Hyden, G., R.W. Kates, and B.L. Turner II, 1993. Beyond Intensification. In B.L. Turner II, G. Hyden and R. Kates (Eds) Population Growth and Agricultural Change in Africa. 17 Gallopin, G.C., M. Winograd, and I. A. Gomez, 1991. Ambiente y Desarrollo en America Latina y el Caribe: Problemas, Oportunidades y Prioridades. Grupo de Analisis de Sistemas Ecologicos. Bariloche, Argentina. 18 Biggs, S.D., 1989. A Multiple Source of Innovation Model of Agricultural Research and Technology. Agricultural Administration (Research and Extension) Network Paper 6, Overseas Development Institute - London. 19 Hayami, Y. and K. Otsuka, 1994. Beyond the Green Revolution: Agricultural Development Strategy into the New Century. In Agricultural Technology: Policy Issues for the International Community. CAB/World Bank 9 2.1.4. The Impact on Natural Resources At present rates of population growth, developing countries will depend on dwindling area of cropland per person and declining access to forests, rangelands and fisheries. In Asia, for example, the current 0.15 hectares of available cropland per capita will fall to a mere 0.09 hectares by 202520. Moreover, it is estimated that 5-12 min has are lost annually to severe degradation, defined as attainable annual output at a fixed level of non­ land inputs. This means that by 2020 losses will amount to 1.4-2.8% of the total potential land. Globally, GLASOD estimates that of the 8.7 bln has of the potential agricultural land, half is under forest, of which 18% is degraded; 3.2 bln has are under pasture, of which 21% is degraded; and nearly 1.5 bln has are in crops, of which 37% is degraded21. Decreasing crop yields are often mentioned as an important indicator of land degradation, but there are few quantitative studies on the impact of degradation on production, especially in developing countries. Land degradation is being perceived as either a potential threat or as relatively unimportant to global food supplies. Detailed studies for irrigated systems in South Asia estimate that salinization and waterlogging are responsible for a 50% decline in yields over eight years. In China, erosion in rainfed lands lowered yields by 19%, and multiple cropping intensity by 11%22. Global desk studies indicate, however, that the impact of present and prospective losses of productivity because of land and water degradation are small relative to future global demands, amounting to no more than 10-15% of expected increases23. These uncertainties about the extent and causes of land degradation and its impact on agriculture and forestry production may stem from analyses that rarely see it in terms of decreased production, but as environmental processes assumed to negatively affect productivity. There is an emerging consensus, however, that the productive capacity of lands is not inherent in ecosystems, but is rather a latent biophysical quality realized through human use24. It is then necessary to know who makes decisions about land use, and to understand why they make such decisions and how decisions are made25. Interpretations of such decisions and impacts may differ as much between different resource users as between 20 Renewal of the CGIAR: An Overview, 1995. In Background Documents on Major Issues. Ministerial-Level Meeting, Lucerne, 9-10 February. CGIAR 21 Scherr, S.J., B. Barbier, L.A. Jackson, and S. Yadav, 1995. Land Degradation in the Developing World: Implications for Food, Agriculture and Environment to the Year 2020: A Synthesis of Recommendations from an International Workshop. IFPRI - Discussion Paper. 22 Joshi and Jha, 1991; and Rozelle et. al., 1995; cited in (15) 23 Crosson, P., 1994. Degradation of Resources as a Threat to Sustainable Agriculture. Paper prepared for the First World Congress of Professionals in Agronomy, Santiago - Chile. 24 Turner II, B.L. and P.A. Benjamin, 1994. Fragile Lands: Identification and Use for Agriculture. In Agriculture, Environment and Health: Sustainable Development in the 21st Century. V.W. Ruttan (Ed). University of Minnesota Press, London. 25 Biot, Y., P.M. Blaikie, C. Jackson, and R. Palmer-Jones, 1995. Rethinking Research on Land Degradation in Developing Countries. World Bank Discussion Papers, No. 289. 10 those based in indigenous and scientific knowledge. There may be a need, then to conduct research under "living conditions", and involving a wide range of actors relevant to both technological and institutional innovations. 2.2. The Institutional Environment The last years have seen the consolidation of changes leading to an increasingly interdependent world, as reflected in the enforcement of global trade agreements, the conceptual move from "food self sufficiency" to "food security", and the agreements reached at the Earth Summit. In the agriculture environment, however, most developing countries and the majority of the development assistance community do not yet fully recognize the role of agriculture as an engine of economic growth. 2.2.1. The Surrounding Environment At the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations, countries undertook commitments to reduce domestic support to agriculture. These market changes are expected to boost the value of world agricultural trade significantly, offering higher prices and some increase in import possibilities. Low-income, food importing countries, may loose from higher food prices, but, if properly situated, they may gain access to developed-country markets. At the Earth Summit it was made plain that the world could no longer think of environment and economic and social development as isolated fields. It emphasized the role of agriculture and agricultural research in feeding the world, while avoiding further encroachment by poor people into marginal lands. It is worth noting that the thrust of the discussions on agricultural issues in Agenda 21 focuses on their environmental impact, with less emphasis given to poverty alleviation than in the CGIAR Agenda. Given the lack of recognition to the role of agriculture and to structural adjustment policies, public investment in agriculture fell from 7.8% in the decade of the ’70s to 7.0% in the ’80s. This lack of interest is also present among development assistance agencies, which have lowered the share of agriculture from 20% in 1980 to 14% in 1990. In this context, support for agricultural research has also fell down in developing countries, slowing growth of public spending in agricultural research from 7% a year in the 60s to 2.7% in the past decade26. On the other side, the emergence of regional groupings of national systems is seen as a potentially positive development that can help in both linking complementary strengths among developing countries and better channelling the efforts of international centres27. 26 Pinstrup-Andersen, P., 1995. The Challenge for a 2020 Vision: Extent of Today’s Human Suffering and a View Toward 2020. Speech made at an International Conference on ”A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment". July 13-15, Washington, D.C. 27 TAC Secretariat, 1995. The Future Role of the CGIAR in Development of National Agricultural Research Systems: A Strategic Study of Institution Strengthening Research and Services. SDR/TAC:IAR/95/12.1 - Working Document. 11 Studies indicate that structural adjustment has had mixed effects on agricultural research systems28. In a few countries, adjustment policies have resulted in more competitive and market-responsive agricultural research. In many, however, the pace of change in policies has exceeded the capacity of research systems to change course and address new concerns, seriously affecting their capacity to generate public goods. And the private sector is yet in the process of getting organized, but it seems clear that it will not take up much of the gap in "public goods" work. In the profit-seeking sector, most of the private activities are carried out by the seed, pesticide and livestock feed industries29. They conduct mainly applied research, spending more money on linking research and technology. Among the non-profit organizations, NGOs are playing an increasingly important role in developing countries, especially in activities related to both introducing a user perspective into downstream adaptive research and organizing local communities for the processing of primary products and/or the management of natural resources. The weakening of national research systems and the increasing diversification of its members pose important managerial challenges to the envisaged catalytic role of the CGIAR in collaborative activities. 2.2.2. The Internal Environment The last few years have witnessed important changes in the System, embodied in the process known as the "Renewal of the CGIAR". This is based on the clear commitment by the world community to promote sustainable agriculture for a food secure world. It materialized in the "Declaration and Action Program" adopted by participants in the Lucerne Ministerial-Level Meeting, which demonstrated a clear commitment to addressing the challenges of promoting a people-centred sustainable development that helps feed the hungry, reduces poverty, and protects the environment, in the context of a rapidly expanding global population that places increasing demands on the Earth’s fragile and finite natural resources. In this context they: placed agriculture at the heart of the development paradigm, reaffirming the role of agriculture as both a catalyst and an integral component of development; identified research as a fundamental precondition for sustainable agricultural development, and recognized the CGIAR as a valuable and vital contributor to international efforts in this field; 28 Tabor, S.R., 1995. Structural Adjustment and Agricultural Research: Summing Up. In Agricultural Research in an Era of Adjustment: Policies, Institutions and Progress. S.R. Tabor (Ed). World Bank - Economic Development Institute, Seminar Series. 29 Pray, C. and R. Echeverria, 1990. Private Sector Agricultural Research and Technology Transfer Links in Developing Countries. In Making the Link: Agricultural Research and Technology Transfer in Developing Countries. Westview Press, London. 12 enjoined the CGIAR to continue efforts to nurture a dynamic South-North partnership in the interests of the world poor and marginalized; endorsed current CGIAR emphasis on natural resource management, twinned to its continuing goal of increased food productivity; and encouraged the CGIAR to complete its reform and renewal process, setting down guidelines for action in four areas: broader partnerships, the research agenda, governance, and finance. Broader Partnerships. Activities in this field aim at including more members from the South and incorporating the perspective of national systems into the CGIAR research agenda. Initially they are focusing on the development of an Action Plan (AP), guided by the regional representatives of NARS to the CGIAR and evolving in a participatory framework30. It started with a meeting in May ’95 to outline an AP, and will culminate in a detailed one (DAP), to be presented at ICW ’96. The AP is seen as an exercise to strengthen the global technology development and transfer system, and has four main goals: ensuring a stronger reflection of the collective views of NARS in CGIAR priority setting; improving modalities for developing formal partnerships between IARCs and NARS; strengthening NARS’ collaboration and representation in the CGIAR through the establishment of strong regional and sub-regional fora; and enhancing institutional capacity building at both the regional and national levels. The AP will be facilitated by three specific sets of activities: i) the effective use of information technologies; ii) improving the economic analysis of investment in research; and iii) developing case analyses of effective institutional arrangements and participatory mechanisms. Deliberations of the four regional fora are taking place, and issues will be taken forward by their chosen representatives to the MTM’96 in Jakarta in May, where plans for each of the four regions will be consolidated into the DAP. Case studies will proceed concurrently, and their lessons incorporated into a revised version by August ’96, to be reviewed at ICW’96. To institutionalize the dialogue between the CGIAR and other partners, special committees have been established to seek the views of NGOs and the private sector. The Research Agenda. As part of the Renewal process a new framework for decision-making was endorsed at Lucerne, that features greater openness and broader participation, and which 30 Outline Action Plan to strengthen NARS-CGIAR partnership, 1995. Prepared by Members of NARS Working Group, Chaired by C. Ndiritu. Washington, D.C. - Revised 14/11/95. 13 is more transparently related to the goals of its stakeholders. It is based on five undertakings, each relating directly to the overarching goals of the CGIAR: i) increasing productivity; ii) protecting the environment; iii) saving biodiversity; iv) socioeconomic, public policy, and public management research; and v) strengthening NARS. The agenda is then built around twelve sets of activities, each of which can be related to one of the five undertakings. In addition, there are activities related directly to Systemwide and ecoregional programmes, specifically focused on the objectives of each initiative. Among the various activities which might be pursued, the CGIAR has concluded that its strength lies in work on important (vis-à-vis poverty and the environment) international (because of mandates and economies of size) public goods (non-appropriable and that involve non-rivalrous consumption). Among the international public goods that the System might consider, TAC focuses its attention on those in which the System has either a cost or an apparent reliability advantage. Governance. TO FOLLOW Finance. TO FOLLOW 2.3. Possible Items for a Discussion on CGIAR Strategies Regarding an agenda for TAC’s discussion on future CGIAR strategies, the preceding sections would suggest the following tentative items, which can be grouped into those related to research and organizational strategies. 2.3.1. Research Strategies Widen the Production Strategy: to increase the yield potential in new varieties, and to manage the resource base for a sustainable expression of such potentials. Modernize the Integration Strategy: by combining traditional and scientific knowledge in the blending of new information into old practices. Evaluate the Impact of Degradation: to dissipate uncertainties about the extent and causes of land degradation and its impact on agriculture and forestry production. Expand the Productivity Horizons: to look at the efficiency of product utilization in the production-to-consumption continuum 2.3.2. Organizational Strategies Integrate the Research Dimensions: bringing to bear agroecological and socioeconomic perspectives to a logical framework linking agricultural production to poverty alleviation and environmental degradation. 14 Catalyze Collaborative Modalities: to make full use of comparative advantages among institutional partners in the development of a common agenda. Monitor the Transaction Costs: to ensure the effective and efficient management of public resources by global/regional research systems. 15 For TAC Members: What follows is a draft of the chapter dealing with considerations behind the character and choice of various elements of the priority setting process. It is written as if the answers were already available. In most cases, the reactions can be inferred from earlier TAC discussions. In some cases they cannot be and the draft can be used to orient discussion. In either case, nothing is set in concrete, all (including, of course, the draft itself) is up for discussion and subject to change. Note that the first paragraph of each section describes (briefly) the findings or conclusions or characteristics of the section. CHAPTER THREE - ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 3.1. Introduction TAC’s framework for priority setting, the principal theme of this chapter, rests squarely on the principal concerns of the Group. Those concerns, now well established through discussion at Lucerne and reinforced at ICW95, emphasize poverty alleviation and natural resource conservation in developing countries; both concerns are said to be people centred. Combined, the two promote sustainable food security. Beyond these overarching goals, there are other considerations important to decision making. Given commitments to their own constituencies, members of the Group seek the effective and efficient pursuit of its goals. TAC has reviewed various considerations and has concluded that, at its level of priority setting, the most important to efficiently achieving the CGIAR’s objectives are the likely success of particular efforts and the availability of alternative sources of supply for the products of such efforts. These two considerations are also significant in TAC’s framework for setting priorities. Finally, in the course of recent discussions about the research agenda the Group has evidenced its sense that current priorities are roughly consistent with the stated goals. Given that perception, TAC has employed current priorities as a point of departure in its review of priorities for 1998-2000. These elements - the specific goals of the System and the considerations that emerge from their efficient pursuit - have been widely discussed and solidly endorsed. What follows here is a brief review of their connection to TAC’s priority setting. This preceded by a brief discussion of the framework for priority setting and changes from 1992, the process for shaping this round of priority setting, and the link with recommended resource allocations. 16 3.2. The Framework TAC’s framework for priority setting features activities, sectors, commodities, and Systemwide work. This represents a change from the framework for the 1992 undertaking in that TAC has dropped the regional dimension (see below) as a separate dimension of decision making. The activities considered number 30 and are made up of the activities described by TAC for the 1992 effort. In the course of its deliberations, TAC has noted some potential improvements in the activities categories; TAC expects to discuss these potential improvements with the Group at ICW96. Unlike 1992 TAC considered four sectors, having added fisheries to the three sectors considered then. The commodity portfolio reviewed in this round of priority setting is like that utilized in 1992. In a sense, and as in 1992, the sector allocations are the sum of the judgments pertaining to the commodities. Systemwide activities played a role in the 1992 effort and, of course, do so in this undertaking. However, TAC has modified the terminology and has recommended a modification in the way that Systemwide Programs, in particular, are to be funded. In the 1992 recommendations TAC proposed to allocate specific amounts to such work in addition to the amounts recommended for centre budgets, per se. At this time TAC proposes that Systemwide Programs be financed through centre budgets, in effect leaving the commitment to such enterprises in the hands of centre management and boards (as in the case of many of the SWPs currently underway), while Systemwide Initiatives - the design phase - be financed through special allocations recommended by TAC. As for regional allocations, TAC proposes that these emerge from the primary considerations in priority setting rather than be imposed apriori. TAC notes that this approach assures a more even handed treatment of the overarching goals of the System and of the opportunities open through the System’s activities. Furthermore, TAC notes that the internal information system, especially with the addition of the standardized project reporting, can accurately report the System’s investment by region. 3.3. The Process Notable about this round of priority setting is the fact that TAC will not have the opportunity to submit a draft version of its work to the Group as it did in 1992. As it stands, and given the commitments made by the System as a part of the renewal process, TAC has been compelled to telescope notably its deliberations and interactions with the Group and with others so as to present to the Group its first round of recommendations at MTM96. Given the results of MTM96 deliberations, TAC will immediately set out to work with the centres on the MTPs for 1998-2000 so that these can be reviewed by the Group at MTM97. Looking to the past, TAC notes that the 1992 effort, aimed at MTPs for 1994-1998, was itself reviewed by specialists both at a workshop organized by the TAC Secretariat in April 1994, and at a meeting of the American Association of Agricultural Economists. The period from 1992 to 1994 saw the continuation of two standing committees within TAC 17 whose purpose was to monitor the degree to which priorities identified by TAC were being integrated by the centres and supported by the Group. During the period TAC met with others as a member of the Joint CDC/CBC/TAC Committee on Priorities and Strategies. The pace of these meetings increased from 1995 onwards and 1996 opened with a specially convened meeting occupying 1.5 days. Finally TAC has been engaged since mid 1994 in meetings with representatives of NARS aimed at encouraging greater interaction with TAC on priority setting, among other themes. TAC’s work on the 1998-2000 priorities moved forward at TAC 66 in March of 1995 with emphasis on the major dimensions of priority setting. This was followed by TAC67, July 1995, which included specialists in several areas identified as especially important by TAC 66. At ICW TAC invited the Group to comment on its interpretations of the Group’s important underlying value judgments. Elements of that discussion are evident in many of the points that follow here. At TAC 68, December 1995, TAC integrated the findings of ICW95 and laid out the elements of a critical path towards MTM96. Comparison of the 1992 mechanisms for priority setting with those employed in the 1996 effort show similarities and differences. Similar is the emphasis on poverty, the mix of quantitative and qualitative judgments, and a point of departure based on value of production. Differences are evident in the approach to quantitative work - this round features but one modifier while the last included several, the inclusion of probabilities of success and alternative sources of supply as more explicit considerations in this round, and the explicit use in this round of a base year (1997) as a point of departure. Quite obviously the ultimate purpose of priority setting is that of allocating resources. TAC’s sense of the first, conditioned by the considerations that make up this chapter, is that the System requires a sense of relative changes in priorities in each of the four dimensions of its analysis. Each time that TAC perceives a need for a modification in priority it will signal the considerations that occasioned the change. In this way, the Group will have not only the outcome of rebalancing but the logic or reasons that rebalancing was deemed to be warranted. Quite clearly the set of recommendations must be consistent from one dimension to the next, That achieved TAC will frame an analogous set of recommendations about resource allocations. Before moving on, TAC notes its problem with vocabulary. In much of what follows the term agriculture is used to mean crops, fisheries,forests, and livestock. This is not a happy term for this broad conjunction of activities because, for many, agriculture refers to crops, for some to crops and livestock, but to few as a name for the four sectors in which the CGIAR works. A second possibility was to write out the four each time and a third was to frame an acronym, CFFL. TAC decided to stay with agriculture and asked the reader to appreciate always the expanded meaning of the term in this report. 18 3.4. Agricultural Research, Productivity, and Income Growth How do the CGIAR’s activities in agricultural research and related themes pertain to productivity increases and to income growth? Especially in the past two years, TAC has written much about these themes. TAC has concluded that, especially for poorer countries where much of the labour force is in agriculture and much of the average budget is spent on food, productivity increases in agriculture offer the best opportunity to stimulate economic growth, and improved technologies resting on research are a major source of increased productivity in agriculture. First, TAC notes that, for most developing countries, especially the poorest, a large portion of the population works in agriculture and a high proportion of the average family budget is spent on foodstuffs. It seems intuitively obvious, then, that increased productivity in agriculture is a necessary condition to achieving income growth in poorer economies. As income levels increase the role of agriculture decreases (see Table 1), offering less scope for agriculturally driven growth. Table 1: Agriculture’s Share in National Income, Employment, and Export Earnings by Country Income Groups, 1989 Average Per Capita Agriculture’s Share % in Country Group* Income GNP Employment ExportUS$ Earnings Low Income Less than US$ 250 per capita 190 49.3 76.5 65.0 US$ 251-500 per capita 380 33.1 68.2 44.3 Middle Income US$ 501-1,000 per capita 800 22.8 52.7 40.5 US$ 1,001-2,400 per capita 1,580 12.8 29.8 39.8 Upper-Middle Income US$ 2,401-6,000 per capita 3,530 8.7 21.8 16.5 High Income US$ 6,001-16,000 per capita 11,520 4.6 8.8 18.9 Greater than US$ 16,001 20,460 2.8 4.4 10.8 * Country income groupings are taken from the 1991 WDR but with subdivisions within groups that give roughly equal numbers of countries in each. Source: World Development Report 1991, except agricultural employment data which were obtained from the 1991 FAO Production Yearbook-, as quoted in "Agricultural Sector Review," World Bank’s Agriculture and Natural Resources Department, July 1993, p. 3. 19 Analysis supports the intuition of the previous paragraph. IFPRI studies show that an increase of US$ 100 in agricultural income gives rise to more than US$ 50 of added income in the rest of the economy. Moreover, current IFPRI and other work shows that, especially for poorer countries, the multiplier effects of agriculture on the remainder of the economy are greater than those for investment in any other sector. More emphatic is the statement in the Agricultural Sector Review, July 1993, ANRD, World Bank ,to the effect that “broad-based agricultural growth, involving small and medium-size farms and driven by productivity-enhancing technological change, offers the only way to create productive employment and alleviate poverty on the scale required.” (See Box) Historically, productivity increases in agriculture come from improved technologies, from education for producers, from better infrastructure, from improved institutions, and from more effective policy. Improved technologies have provided the most noteworthy and the most reliable sources of increased productivity in agriculture (see the World Bank observation in the previous paragraph); improved policies have also proven fruitful. Both are the products of research, the raison d’etre of the CGIAR. How does increased productivity lead to greater incomes? The increased returns to those who hold the factors engaged in agriculture stimulate increased spending on consumption and on investments. This increased spending, in turn, augments the incomes of others, who, in turn, increase their own spending. The result is rising rounds of spending across the economy and the effects described by IFPRI. This scenario reflects agriculture’s role as an engine of growth. Beyond that, the lower food prices accompanying increased output serve as a lubricant to growth in the remainder of the economy, usually through their effects on wages and, via wages, on savings and further investment. That investment, in turn, gives rise to an ever larger capital stock, again with further implications for growth, that ultimately draws workers into non-agricultural pursuits through higher wages. Many specialists in economic growth have dealt with this phenomenon. As well, the lower food prices are a gain to rural consumers, especially poor rural consumers. Clearly some of the consequences for the poor are direct and more immediate while others, especially those associated with non-agricultural employment, are more indirect and longer term in nature. (See also Box) TAC notes that these considerations throw light on the poverty/food insecurity nexus. Food security rests on the availability of food and access to it. Globally, there is no question about the availability of food. However, as argued so cogently in (NA-2010), this is not the critical question. For even with food available, there are millions across the developing world who, because they have inadequate incomes, do not have access to adequate food. (“It is now widely recognized that failure to alleviate poverty is the main reason why under-nutrition persists.” p.2.) This leads (NA-2010) to emphasize that the production of food serves two important functions which contribute to food security, one is to assure availability while the other, and for the developing countries the more important, is that the production of food is a major source of income for the poor. In any 20 long run, food security for the family rests on higher incomes or, said another way, on the alleviation of poverty. BOX: Linking Agricultural Research to Growth (Based on materials from Peter Hazell, IFPRI) This theme warrants treatment at three levels: that of the farm, of the region, and of the nation. At the farm level, growth permits an increase of spending in several dimensions. Clearly it can lead to higher levels of consumption. More important for the long term, it can lead to on-farm investments in future productivity growth including those in NRM, to investments into non-farm income diversification (including small business activities), and to investments in education. . Beyond that, through increased savings, farm level growth augments the capacity and willingness to accept risk. At the regional level, agricultural growth leads to powerful demand linkages to the non-farm economy . These include consumption demands, demands for farm inputs, demands for marketing and agricultural processing services, and demands for investment goods. Empirical studies show that the first three lead to income multipliers of between US$ 0.5 and US$ 0.8 per dollar of additional value generated in agriculture with most of that coming in rural towns. Of the three, consumption demands play the largest role. More recent work suggests that demand for investment goods are more powerful even than consumption spending when their impact on future productivity and income generation is considered, i.e., there are large dynamic multipliers. Agricultural growth in high potential areas often generates additional labour demands and higher wages that attract seasonal migrant farmer workers from poorer regions, leading to important income multiplier elsewhere. Examples include the migrations from eastern India to Punjab and Haryana and the Burkina Faso labour migrations to the cocoa farms in Cote d’Ivoire. While these payments tend to reduce the host region’s multipliers, experience shows that they increase multipliers in the home region, as income from non-local sources can be an important catalyst for investment and subsequent growth in output in the home region. Regional multipliers can vary with, e.g., farm size. Medium-sized family farms generate the largest regional multipliers. Growth via smaller farms usually has larger regional multipliers than for large farmers because the income generated per hectare is larger, more labour intensive practices are used, and small farms use a larger share of locally produced goods in production, consumption, and investment. Very small farms, however, generate small multipliers because they have few cash transactions. Regional multipliers also tend to reflect the state of infrastructure. With poorer roads, for example, much of an income increase is spent on diversifying the diet, a result starkly shown when comparing villages with good versus bad road connections. As well, the level of income tends to influence the multipliers. They tend to become larger with regional economic growth, at least through middle income status. Favoured environments well served by infrastructure, then, would be expected to have larger regional multipliers than would marginal environments with less infrastructure. 21 For national multipliers and with the neo-classical conditions satisfied, the differences in demand linkages for the reasons described above would not operate. All investments would generate the same long-run income multipliers and these would be small or even zero because all resources remain fully employed. Markets and conditions are rarely so efficient, and labour and capital in particular are not notably mobile across regions and sectors. The targeting of agricultural growth by region and type of farm does matter. In the more real world, the regional multipliers are probably good guides to the relative differences in multipliers. It should be noted that where labour is immobile, investments in poor regions may generate smaller regional and national income multipliers than investments in high potential areas, but may be necessary to reach the very poorest of the nation. In countries with large poor urban populations, however, the larger income multipliers from investments in high potential areas may have a bigger impact on poverty. These issues need further research. A number of macro or national level benefits accompany agricultural growth. Among these are: capital flows out of agriculture through the banking system add to investment potential elsewhere in the economy; increased entrepreneurial activity in rural areas, whether on the farm or in non-farm pursuits, augments managerial skills which can be applied in other parts of the economy; lower food prices have implications for wage rates that make the economy more competitive in international markets; balance of payments are strengthened through increased exports or through reduced imports; and the higher incomes in agriculture provide a broader tax base for the public development of infrastructure and education. As for comparisons with growth linkages through other strategies, recent IFPRI work shows that development strategies based on agriculture are superior to industrial-led strategies for the poorer developing countries and, as in the earlier discussion, that targeting the small farm sector is better than targeting the large farm sector. These studies measure success in terms of growth rates but also show that the income distribution shifts towards the poor. As expected, these results are sensitive to assumptions about the mobility of capital and labour. Importantly for the CGIAR, the superiority of agricultural-led growth diminishes with economic development. These results suggest that efforts aimed at poverty alleviation should be via productivity growth in agriculture, focus on poorer countries, and emphasize rural-labour intensive activities. (End Box) 3.5. Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation What about the evidence that economic growth leads to poverty alleviation? TAC has concluded that there is strong empirical evidence that economic growth in poorer countries leads to poverty alleviation, even in cases where growth leads to less equal distributions of income. Even so, TAC concludes that growth alone is not sufficient to 22 achieve the Group’s pro-poor goals, implying a further emphasis on poverty in TAC’s priority setting. For a brief, lucid, and penetrating treatment of over 200 years of research on poverty and economic growth one can do not better than ML/MR (with its 580 citations). A paper by Ravallion, “Growth and Poverty: Evidence from the Developing Countries in 1980s”, cited in Lipton and Ravallion, reports on sixteen studies chosen because their data made possible a comparison of economic growth with the reduction in the number of people below a commonly defined poverty line (more on poverty lines later). The studies showed that the number of such people decreased with economic growth. Moreover, higher-order measures of poverty also showed declines in poverty, implying that “benefits from growth are typically felt well below the poverty line”. (ML/MR, p. 2607.) ML/MR go on to say that “...even when growth has been associated with rising inequality, it appears that poverty has typically fallen “ All of this is not to suggest that government should concentrate its attentions solely on promoting growth. A number of factors influence the relationship between growth and the reduction of poverty, and government, through targeting and policy, may have a role in promoting patterns of growth more congruent with poverty alleviation (Ibid., p.2607). Among such strategies is that of “shifting investments towards rural, labour-intensive...activities”. (Ibid., p.2608.) It should be noted that some argue that strategies that slow the rate of growth will, sooner or later, impede the reduction of poverty, that growth itself is the best pro-poor strategy. (See Pardey, et. al.) This point of view is, to an extent, consistent with an observation by ML/MR that a key question in assessing the effects on poverty of macro- economic policy is: “did adjustment raise or lower the rate of growth?” (ML/MR, p. 2613.) However, many opine that barriers to the effective functioning of markets—whether because of policy, shortage of information, or inertia in labour markets—argue for the implementation of pro-poor strategies focused on the contemporary poor, These considerations make up one strand of the rationale underlying the emphasis on labour- intensive activities in rural areas, and support TAC’s decision, discussed later, to include a modifier for poverty in its analysis of priorities. To here, and said briefly, the logic emphasizes poverty alleviation via income growth resting on increases in productivity in agriculture, whose effects are felt directly (mostly near term) and indirectly (mostly longer term). 3.6. Agricultural Research and the Conservation of Natural Resources Turning now to natural resource conservation, TAC agrees that poverty underlies much of the threat to natural resources in developing countries. TAC has concluded that emphasis be given first to conservation’s implications for present and future productivity, broadly defined to include on-farm and off-farm benefits and costs, and then to broader, global, environmental effects. TAC notes the importance of the positive linkages between productivity and conservation as well as potentially negative linkages, where opportunities to reduce trade-offs between development and the environment must be pursued. TAC notes, too, the now broader view of conservation guiding the CGIAR System. 23 The connection between the CGIAR’s activities and the health of the environment is more self-evident than in the case of poverty alleviation. Conservation will require technologies that directly serve the various purposes of producers, including those pertaining to natural resources, or which can be made to do so through the implementation of policy (but see below). Such technologies - productivity-increasing, resource-conserving technologies - and policies will rest on the findings of research. The CGIAR is much involved in research relevant to conservation. Indeed much of what is done by the CGIAR contributes, directly or indirectly, to that aim. Over the years TAC has examined the conservation theme on several occasions. N kinds of questions have motivated the Committee’s concerns. One had to do with the resources to be conserved and the question, roughly, was the extent to which the System thinks beyond the gains that conservation brings to producers to the off-farm effects of practices on , e.g., soil erosion or global green house gases. Another had to do with the nature of the System’s role in resource conservation—developing more suitable technologies, developing effective research paradigms through the experience of developing more suitable technologies, leading the way on the science of resource conservation, or advocacy for conservation itself. Sustainability was a major organizing theme for TAC and has become one for the many now involved with natural resource issues. TAC’s approach to the theme has varied over time, from in its initial treatment, through “...” in 199X, to the stance reflected in the current paper on soil and soil water management. By now, of course, the meanings ascribed by others to sustainability vary so much, e.g., from maintaining nature’s endowment intact to ensuring “resiliency”, that the term has lost much of its force, and longer expressions are required to convey meaning. TAC’s 1996 paper has those longer expressions. Note, too, that the 1996 paper, consistent with the System’s concern for the poor and poverty alleviation, focuses on the conservation of natural resources of concern to present and future generations of poor producers and consumers and to their health, and, to borrow a term from FAO (NA-2010), in the context of returns and “... timescales which meet their differing circumstances or risk perceptions”, p. 395. With these criteria satisfied, TAC introduces the criteria for involvement in such global environmental concerns as green house gases, lifesystems, ethical, aesthetic, and amenity considerations. TAC also notes that much CGIAR work on natural resources, indeed much of the System’s work, has simultaneous implications for both the local and the global environment. Earlier reference was made to policy as an agent in promoting the use of environmentally friendly technologies. One example of this strategy is in GEF’s policy of offsetting the added costs of carbon efficient power plants so as to limit green house gases without raising the cost of power to users. This is an industrial example of what (NA- 2010) calls “reducing the trade-offs between development and the environment.” (See, again, NA-2010, Ch 13). Certainly a major challenge for policy in agriculture is its need to influence the behaviour of many thousands of largely independent agents. Doing so in the name of reducing trade-offs between development and the environment but with limited institutional capital and while restricting rent seeking behaviour is one of policy’s daunting tasks. TAC notes its awareness of this challenge and its continuing concern for the orientation of CGIAR research on policy issues. 24 TAC also notes that increases in productivity themselves have implications for the environment. Some of those have been negative in the further past. (See WFS/T6 and FAO 2010 for reasoned discussions of the issues). Much, however, has had a positive, albeit indirect, affect on the environment. In particular, it is frequently observed that the lower prices accompanying increases in productivity in favoured areas have the affect of reducing movement onto fragile lands and forest margins. TAC will have more to say on this theme in Chapter 5, where priorities for activities are discussed. Before moving on, however, TAC notes that the two primary concerns of the System are imbedded in a three part nexus of problems, That nexus features poverty, environmental degradation, and population growth. Poverty, the pivotal element, has immediate consequences for the environment as the poor are compelled to focus on the near term with less attention to the long run when the fruits of conservation come into play. Poverty is also strongly associated with population growth, either because of the direct benefits from large families as seen by the individual or because poverty limits what society can do to reduce growth rates through investment in education (especially for women) and better health. In turn, rapid population growth combined with poverty promises more damage to natural resources in the future. And, through time, degradation of natural resources ultimately threatens productivity, further reinforcing poverty. The pivotal element in this nexus is poverty and the way forward is through its alleviation. In this context, FAO-2010 (p. 400) opines that “...much of the mismanagement of natural resources in developing countries relates to poverty and to the lack of economic growth to provide better and sustainable livelihoods outside of subsistence agriculture.” TAC further notes today’s broader view of the conservation challenge, a challenge that not only pertains to land and water, but to such far reaching concerns as global warming. In another dimension, this broader view has included the recognition that the environment itself is one of four, interacting classes of capital on which humankind relies. (Reference one of the Serageldin-Bank publications.) This expanded view of capital emphasizes that one generation’s obligations to future generations includes maintaining or augmenting the total capital stock, while ensuring that no one of the four classes falls below minimum critical levels. It notes that institutional capital may be critical in implementing strategies aimed at conserving natural capital, that human capital has been substituted effectively for other forms of capital, and is sensitive to the possibility that natural capital, declining in physical terms over time while the other classes of capital are increasing, is relatively undervalued. Unlike its stand with respect to poverty, TAC has not included in its priority setting a special modifier for degradation of soil and water. As Chapter 5 will evidence, the priority accorded to research in this area rests first on its implications for present and future productivity and second on its implications for the global environment. To go beyond that would require, among other things, data and measures which are not yet available. (Citation) TAC is working with those who are engaged in improving such measures. 25 3.7. Methods for Setting Priorities for Agricultural Research In setting priorities, TAC has relied most on structured discussion supported by quantitative and qualitative information. TAC has used its earlier recommendations and current budget allocations as a point of departure, altering those given compelling information - especially about science, alternative sources of supply, recent experience, prospects beyond research - or analysis. Congruence analysis modified by the locus and level of poverty has been applied to commodities and sectors as an input to structured discussion on priorities in those dimensions. To set priorities is to order activities in ways that are most consistent with the objectives that motivate the effort. Priority setting is always difficult because of the unknowns or uncertainties that must be taken into account. Agricultural research is an especially difficult arena for convincing priority setting. Beyond uncertainties other issues also intervene. (SUS) reviews the various elements that challenge the setting of priorities for agricultural research. The book is the latest, and arguably the most complete, presentation of the issues influencing priority setting in research and includes a presentation of the advantages and disadvantages of various approaches. A prime point is the problem of dealing with multiple objectives. The authors recommend that a single objective, national income growth, orient priority setting for agricultural research and go on to describe ways to set priorities given that goal (but see below for TAC’s view of the CGIAR’s objectives). There are several approaches for those who would set public research priorities and allocate public resources so as to promote economic efficiency. (SUS) advocates a model based on economic surplus and lays out the advantages, disadvantages, and challenges of its utilization. As an alternative, (SUS) includes congruence allowance, which posits that research be “funded in proportion to the value of production”. Calling it a “crude procedure”, but one requiring only “minimal information”, (SUS) points out the conditions for this approach to yield maximum economic surplus and notes that these are unlikely to be realized. (SUS) notes, however, that “there might be insufficient information available to justify a more complete analysis”, going to say that in such cases congruence analysis “might be consistent with an ultra-simplified economic surplus approach in that at least some account is taken of the scale of the industry.” TAC believes that the ‘insufficient information case’ holds in setting priorities for international public goods research on a global basis and so has used congruence analysis as the point of departure for one element in its work on priorities. (SUS) also notes that there are many situations in which insufficient information limits the use of quantitative methods, that quantitative estimates of criteria be obtained where available and that it should be combined with structured discussion where quantitative approaches are impossible. (SUS, p479) TAC has followed this approach. In setting priorities TAC has adopted the position that there should be no change in the priorities now in play unless there is compelling reason to rebalance. For the most part these reasons will emerge from new information about science, about progress in current work, about sources of supply, or about expectations. 26 Finally, and returning briefly to the admonitions in (SUS), TAC notes that the CGIAR objectives do not feature income growth over time but rather poverty alleviation. Two views on how effectively the one leads to the other were reflected earlier, but a third view requires consideration here. The Group gives stronger weight to the current poor than to the future poor. This preference might rest on the judgment that catering to the current poor will more quickly affect population growth rates and more quickly limit the effects of poverty on the environment. The second simply delays the day of reckoning but the first promises smaller ultimate populations and less ultimate pressure on the environment. TAC agrees with this judgment. The locus and level of poverty must come into the analysis to modify strict congruence analysis. TAC further notes that in the previous round of priority setting a multi-dimensional model brought several modifiers into the analysis. While this approach is not without its shortcomings, it was felt that, on balance, it was the preferred approach, given the System’s desire for a more quantitative orientation to priority setting than in the past. Whatever its qualities, the effects of that effort shaped the priorities which guided CGIAR resource allocations from 1994 to 1997. With 1997 as the base year for the new round of priority setting and to the extent that the 1994 TAC recommendations were adhered to in the 1997 allocations, that previous round of priority setting will influence the current effort because of its influence on the base. And, beyond the effects of the modifiers, there will still be visible the residual affects of the 1992 apriori judgments about regional priorities. 3.8. Poverty as an Element in Priority Setting With the decision to feature poverty in priority setting, TAC sought a measure that would permit comparison over space and time, that would be sensitive to differences in the inequality of income distributions among countries, that would give increasing weight to the poorest within a country, that would facilitate comparison of different ethical views (or value judgments) about the importance of the degree of poverty, that assured consistency with good practice, and that accommodated the limitations imposed by the data. TAC believes that the measure described below has those qualities. (See Appendix 1 for the formulation.) Having related poverty alleviation to the CGIAR’s objectives and to its activities, how has TAC taken poverty into account in dealing with priorities. TAC notes that the final goods that make up the CGIAR portfolio were selected because they are important to poor producers and consumers. Straightway, then, the CGIAR portfolio itself reflects a concern for poverty. What follows here deals with the further integration of poverty into TAC’s analysis. TAC starts with a notably brief review of measurement themes and concludes with the measure it applied in modifying congruence analysis and in guiding its structured discussions. Poverty is a state that most recognize and feel quite competent to label. Even so, its definition, effect on behaviour, amelioration, and measurement, among other things, have motivated discussion and study for over 200 years. Again, for a brief, lucid, and penetrating treatment of the evolution of ideas on the theme see ML/MR. Many of the 27 elements that follow here were drawn from their piece. Those who want the argument whole can do no better than ML/MR. Quite evidently, poverty imposes severe limits on behaviour in various dimensions as it limits economic welfare. Efforts to describe poverty and to measure it are made more difficult by the fact that the perception of poverty and of welfare varies from place to place. “However, it is not controversial that inadequate command over commodities is the most important dimension of poverty, and a key determinant of other aspects of welfare, such as health, longevity, and self-esteem.” (p2553) Spurred on by the growing emphasis on more efficiency in reaching the poor, development assistance agencies sought a pragmatic measure of poverty, one clearly related to well-being and with tolerable costs of implementation. The better known attempts include assessing “basic needs” (health, food, education, water, shelter, transport), “capabilities” (which sees consumption as permitting desired activities), and human development. These, and others, fail the test of efficacy in implementation. What has emerged are measures based on control over commodities, resting on consumption itself or on income, themselves with limitations but nonetheless evidently correlated with the main indicators of such basic needs as health, longevity, and self-esteem and comparable over time and space. Initially, the featured measure of poverty was the number of people or the proportion of people below a poverty line, defined in terms of income adjusted for purchasing power parity. This was followed by a measure that integrates the gap between the poverty line and those below it, a measure that recognizes the depth of poverty. That, in turn, was augmented by a measure that reflects the severity of poverty, the squared poverty gap measure. Each of these measures is “exclusive”, in the sense that all weight is given to those below a poverty line. Some would argue that all members of the society, the poorest as well as the less poor, should be included in a measure of the degree of poverty within a country. (The country’s mean income is a simple measure that does that.) Most would agree that an “inclusive” measure should, somehow, reflect the severity of poverty.. (The country mean does not do that.) Ravallion has demonstrated that the theoretical differences between inclusive and exclusive measures are blurred by the accommodation of measurement errors and uncertainties about what should be brought into a measure of well-being. Then, with data from 40 developing countries, he goes on to show that there is little empirical difference between exclusive poverty measures like the three referred to above and an inclusive measure which incorporates aversion to income inequality by giving increasing weight, even moderately increasing weight, to the poorest. Given the caveat, Ravallion concludes that the choice among such measures will make little difference to the perception of relative poverty. This conclusion facilitates the work of TAC. (See Box 2.) 28 Box 2: A Measure of Poverty In reviewing and rebalancing CGIAR priorities, TAC must ensure that poverty plays a central role. The instrument for incorporating poverty must be consistent with the concerns and pronouncements of the Group, with the level at which TAC sets priorities, with priority setting at the Centre and program level, and with good practice. The key principles are that: 1. the measure for any country should reflect both the average income in the country (negatively) and the degree of inequality (positively); 2. the weight attached to the gains in any one country is higher the lower the value of the measure for that country; 3. beyond some point the weight falls to zero; 4. the rate at which the weight increases as the measure of poverty declines and the value of the point beyond which the weight is zero are both matters of judgment, for which it should be easy to assess the extent to which alternative judgments influence the results. To satisfy these principles, the following elements were incorporated: 1. The poverty indicator rests on the distribution corrected mean income at purchasing power parity. The poverty indicator is then given by p=(l-G)y, where G is the Gini index of income or expenditure inequality and y is mean income at purchasing power parity. 2. The indicator has value zero whenever the value of p exceeds some critical value z, for which alternative values are assessed. 3. Whenever p is at or below z, the weight is given by (1-p/z) raised to the power alpha, where alpha is set at a value of one or higher, and for which alternative values are chosen. In its assessments TAC has set z, measured in estimated 2003 income at purchasing power parity and adjusted for the degree of income inequality, at $6001 and at $9000, or 50% above. (The World Bank describes incomes greater than $6000 as high incomes. Incomes above $6000 after adjustment for distribution, as here, would all fall in that category.) TAC has set alpha at 2, a commonly applied value, and at 3, which gives even greater weight to the severity of poverty. (See Appendix 2 for implications.) (End Box 2) 29 3.9. Other Elements Considered in Priority Setting TAC concluded that incomes, but not prices because of data limitations, should be set in 2003; that given the level of generality at which TAC shapes priorities added weight to female farmers and to rural populations makes little quantitative difference but that, through the internal review process, centre priority setting must be carefully monitored to account for these considerations; that the balance between favoured and marginal environments is best achieved through the major factor shaping priority setting rather than through a priori judgments; and that neither differences in labour intensity nor in research production functions should shape TAC’spriority setting - but perhaps centres’ priorities for projects - at this time. TAC considered several further adjustments to congruence analysis based on current data. The consequences of the various adjustments are discussed in Chapter 5. Recognizing that the products of research initiated today will have their impact many years in the future, TAC favoured future income and future prices in the analysis. Reasonable measures of income growth provide the vehicle for projecting income towards the future. These projections, in turn, promise strong influence on the relative incomes across countries, for the poverty modifier and, finally, for the weights attached to various commodities and actives of the System. Given the reliability of the data and the potential importance of the results, TAC’s analysis includes estimated incomes to 2003, roughly mid­ way through the long term planning horizon. As for prices, adequate data and analysis are simply not available. For its 1992 effort, TAC used a price series based on 1987-89 and prepared by the Secretariat in close collaboration with the centres. Shortly after the conclusion of that work a new set of international prices was provided by Pradado Rao; this series purports to put all prices on the same footing and appears to represent an improvement on the earlier set used by TAC. No one, however, has built a similar data set for future prices. Those who make predictions do so for only a limited number of the commodities with which the CGIAR deals (6 to 8 of 25). TAC recognizes that ,e.g., urbanization will lead to higher relative prices for wheat (because of its convenience), that income growth will boost relative prices of livestock and feedstocks, especially maize, as well as reduce the relative price of rice as, especially, Asians seek more varied diets. Even so, there is little analysis to give precision to these probable occurrences. . Fortunately, while real prices must continue to decline if the CGIAR is to achieve its promise, TAC requires only relative prices, seemingly more stable, even in the face of the forces mentioned above, than are absolute prices. Given these considerations, TAC has used the R.Rao construction to estimate relative prices for CGIAR commodities. Given the Group’s manifest concern for rural women, TAC made further adjustments in the value of production by giving added weight to females engaged in agricultural production. The argument made at ICW95 was that income gains to women would mean more for the well being of women and children than were the same income gains to fall to men. An added consideration was that, on the average, the women of developing countries are poorer than the men. This last point rests in some measure on the widely held view that some 60% of those below the poverty line are females. In a personal 30 communication, Hillary Feldstein reports that further study suggests that the number is 54%, rather than 60%. Some members of the Group opined that women had been given relatively less attention in the past and heavier weights now were required to redress the balance. Beyond that, some argue for giving extra weight to women in the expectation that this will hasten the reduction in population growth rates - with its further implications for conservation of natural resources in the future. Offsetting these considerations are the results of studies that suggest that poor female farmers behave more like poor male farmers in their production activities than like better off female farmers. Clearly it was not the intent of the Group that TAC set priorities exclusively in terms of women, simply that poor females or, more generally, females, have a higher weight than males. For its purposes, TAC framed one set of priorities in which females and males, whatever their location and whatever their degree of poverty, were weighted equally, one set in which females had 25% more weight than males. The implications for modified values of production are presented in Appendix 2, Tables 3a and 3b compared with Tables 5a and 5b. The implications for priorities are discussed in Chapter V. TAC also notes that the Centres, setting priorities in terms of projects, will be better able to tailor activities to the needs of women than can TAC, setting priorities at the global level. And beyond that, it seems likely that national programs and NGOs, working as they do on specific, local problems will have even more to do with gender based concerns. TAC will, through its review processes, weigh the extent to which centres have taken the Group’s admonition into account in their priorities and will monitor the extent to which NARS are incorporating such considerations into their own work. Again as a result of discussion at ICW95, TAC set out two scenarios based on differing weights for rural and urban dwellers (See Appendix 2 and compare Tables 3a and b with Tables 6a and b). Group members developed several arguments for favouring rural dwellers. One was the believe that, on the average, rural people are poorer than urban dwellers. A second was that urban dwellers have more access to socially provided services than do rural dwellers, hence that the farmers’ real incomes are understated vis-à-vis the latter. A third was that rural people are more numerous than urban people. A fourth was that the CGIAR with its emphasis on agriculture can do more for people involved with agriculture, hence rural people, than for urban people. Consider these impressions. The first proposition is consistent with FAO data (see.... ). Given that TAC is using national averages as its point of departure in framing the poverty modifier and that this implicitly assumes that incomes are the same in rural and urban areas, evidence that those incomes differ suggests that an adjustment for rural and urban income levels will better reflect where poverty is found. The second is probably true to some unknown degree. Both considerations, however, are offset to the extent that the purchasing power parity of the average current income in urban areas is less than that in rural areas. On balance, the three elements taken together might suggest a modest adjustment, based on the proportion of rural and urban populations, to better reflect the inter-country comparison of poverty. The fourth theme has merit but perhaps less than meets the eye. TAC has observed that increased productivity in agriculture affects poverty alleviation through two avenues: first, through the immediate, direct returns to those holding the resources (especially labour) favoured by whatever induced the productivity 31 change and later through induced rounds of spending adding further to the demand for factors (again especially labour) and, second, through the positive consequences for real income of declines in the price of foodstuffs. Both rural and urban populations benefit from these effects. Furthermore, and quite obviously, for most countries the full realization of poverty alleviation will require a shift of labour to non-agriculture pursuits. This suggests that those concerned with agricultural poverty must see developments outside of agriculture, e.g., in urban areas, as critically important to those concerns in the long run. What does differentiate the two populations and gives some credence to more emphasis on rural/agricultural than on urban poor is that the effects of productivity change are more quickly felt in rural than in urban areas. Time preference, then, would itself suggest some added weight to rural populations. Appendix 2 has two versions of modified values of production - one with equal weights and the second with what would seem to be the outer limit for added weight to rural populations - which reflect the implications of this judgment for modified congruence allowance. It is noteworthy that there is little difference between the two. TAC notes, however, that centres, framing their priorities around projects, might well have more options for favouring rural over urban populations and TAC will take note of centre reactions as a part of the review process. A portion of the Group expressed its concern for marginal environments and advocated that TAC give such environments added priority. Several considerations seemed to motivate this concern. One was that such areas contain either most of the poor or the poorest of the poor. The former seems unlikely and the latter calls for further research. A second was that such areas suffer most from degradation and that a further concentration there would be congruent with the System’s interest in conserving natural resources. Possibly a third was the perception that, as relatively more research has been done on favoured environments and relatively little on marginal environments, the effects of diminishing returns in the former would suggest moving more resources to the latter. TAC’s notes that some XX percent of the System’s resources are currently destined to marginal environments (see Table) and that any change in that level should emerge from the general considerations that are shaping priority setting, e.g., value of production, probabilities of success, and alternative sources of supply along with perceptions about the locus, level, and consequences for poverty. Via the newly emerging project framework, TAC will follow centre priorities on such work. Attention was given to the possibility of incorporating labour intensity in priority setting. Some commodities, some sectors, utilize more labour than others per hectare or per unit value of production. TAC reviewed the available data and found misgivings about its accuracy and current relevance among its suppliers. Moreover, TAC noted that the measures required to ensure that proper choices were made, measures that involve the basic elements shaping the demand for labour, are not available. TAC concluded that, at its level of priority setting, there is little opportunity at this time to bring labour intensity directly and systematically into the analysis of priorities. Finally, TAC reflected on the possibility of employing the production function for knowledge, the description of the relationship between inputs to research and outputs from the process, in its assessments. Conceptually of great importance, there is little information 32 about the function, hence little opportunity to use it in priority setting at TAC’s level. For this case, and for several of the others, TAC will join those engaged in developing the kind of information required to permit their future use in priority setting. 3.10. Conclusions This Chapter has listed and described the major elements on which TAC’s priority setting was based. Each section opens with a short statement on TAC’s conclusions or findings. The remaining text expands on those points and others. From the overarching goals of the System, through the avenues by which the activities of the centres satisfy those goals, to the modus operandi and tools used by TAC in its deliberations, by the devices through which the locus and level of poverty are incorporated in the deliberations, and to a brief look at several other elements that might play a role at the level of TAC or at the level of the centres, the chapter provides insights into the elements that guided priority setting. Several important considerations were not treated, e.g., the view of the regional fora and national programs and the perceptions of the centres. Some of these are explicitly treated in Chapter 5, where the findings of this chapter guide the discussion of TAC’s views on where changes in resource allocations should occur, some in Chapter 7 where the implications for priorities and the resource allocations themselves are laid out. Some must await the further interaction between TAC and the centres as the latter develop, review, and amend their medium term plans with TAC’s support. 33 CHAPTER 4 - OVERVIEW OF OUTCOME OF RECENT STUDIES RELEVANT TO CGIAR PRIORITIES AND STRATEGIES 4.1. Background The TAC priorities and strategies exercise took into account the outcome of a number of recent studies specially commissioned by TAC or by the Group through its Task Force or Standing Committee mechanisms. The TAC commissioned studies comprised the following: the inter-centre review of rice (1992); the stripe study of genetic resources in the CGIAR (1993); the global livestock research strategy (1994); the CGIAR commitments in West Africa (1994); the inter-centre review of root and tuber crops (1995); the study of public policy and public management research (1995); the study on institution strengthening research and service (1995); soil and water aspects of natural resources management research (1995); and the mid-term review of ICLARM (1995). The Group commissioned studies comprised the reviews by the Task Forces on Sustainable Agriculture and on Ecoregional Approaches; and the work of the genetic resources policy committee. TAC also took into account the outcome of other major initiatives such as the Inter- Ministerial Meeting in Lucerne - the Lucerne Declaration and Action Programme; the LAO Agricultural Towards 2010 Study; the ILPRI 2020 Vision for Pood, Agriculture and the Environment; and the NARS Working Group Action Plan to Strengthen NARS-CGIAR Partnership. The outcome of the above studies is discussed in the following sections in the context of future CGIAR priorities and strategies. 4.2. The Lucerne Declaration and Action Programme The Lucerne Declaration and Action Programme focused its attention on the CGIAR Research Agenda and on the question of broader partnership within the global research system. The CGIAR was urged to pay particular attention in its research agenda to the problems of the poor in less-endowed areas, in addition to continuing work in high potential areas; to take account of the fact that Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia were facing the greatest challenges to eradicate poverty and malnutrition; that priorities need to be given to increasing productivity, protecting the environment, saving biodiversity, improving policies, and contributing to strengthen NARS, while addressing more forcefully international issues of water scarcity, soil and nutrient management and aquatic resources; and that actions already taken to protect genetic resources needed to be reinforced. In terms of research strategies, the focus must remain on producing international public goods through problem-solving strategic and applied research using an interdisciplinary and collaborative approaches; that the research agenda should reflects the views and goals 34 of global and regional forums on agricultural research; and that the CGIAR System should work in closer partnership and collaboration with public and private research organizations and universities from both the developing and the developed world. To achieve broader partnerships, priority must be given to include more developing countries as active members of the CGIAR; and to complete the transition from a donor/client to an equal partners approach that would systematize participation by NARS in setting and implementing the Group’s agenda. As a means of improving dialogue among CGIAR, private sector and civil society, the CGIAR should convene a committee of NGOs and a committee of the private sector organizations. 4.3. World Agriculture Towards 2010 This FAO study attempts to provides insights on two issues in food and agriculture of global importance that seem to dominate all others: the persistence of under-nutrition and food insecurity for large parts of the developing countries’ population; and the process of increasing scarcity and degradation of agricultural and other environmental resources as it relates, directly or indirectly, to the process of meeting the food and income needs of a growing world population. From a development perspective, the study addresses two themes, one related to economic policies that have a bearing on agriculture, with particular reference to the significance for agriculture of the recent thrust of policy reforms aimed at structural adjustment; and the second concerns the proposition that in the low-income countries with food security problems and high dependence on agriculture, relative shift of emphasis towards agriculture and rural development holds more promise than other strategies of generating benefits both for food security and poverty alleviation as well as for putting the whole economy on to a higher growth path. The study recognizes that technological opportunities are not sufficient in themselves to stimulate ecologically sound and sustainable development. A strategy for minimizing development and environment trade-offs must also be in place to provide stability and confidence for the producers to take up the technological opportunities and make the necessary investments. Access to proven technologies, production inputs and services, markets; secure rights to access to land, water and other resources provide the and an appropriate regulatory environment to safeguard and protect public goods must form an important part of the support measures that can ensure that the minimization of trade-offs and actions to shift agriculture on to a sustainable growth path take place within a consistent strategic framework. The study points out some major uncertainties. For example, the question of whether the trade-offs between environmental resources and more production will conform to some notion of tolerable environmental cost cannot be answered in a definitive manner, given the 35 present state of knowledge and the uncertainties concerning future developments in technology. Also, at present there is no way of making any definitive statements about the prospect of whether future world agricultural output with enough per caput production to satisfy the needs of all people can be produced year after year in a sustainable manner. Further, because of the complexities in the relationships between the economy, agricultural development and the environment, and the uncertainties in the strengths of the trade-offs and their associated risks, the stress must be on minimizing the trade-offs, and adopting precautionary principle. The study makes the following projections to 2010: world agricultural production will grow at a rate of 1.8 percent p.a. to 2010 (2.6 % in developing countries and 0.7 in developed), lower than the 2.3 % of the ’70s and the 2.0 % achieved between 1980-92, responding to a decreasing demand from people that do not need more food and those that cannot afford to buy it; while per caput food supplies in most developing regions will be at or above the 3000 calories, under-nutrition could still affect 200 million people in South Asia, and 32 % of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa; per caput production of cereals in developing countries will continue to grow from 216 kg in 1988/90 to 229 in 2010, but consumption for all uses will grow faster from 235 to 254 kg, requiring imports to grow from 90 million tons in 1988/90 to 160 million in 2010; in developing countries the use of cereals to feed an expanding livestock sector may more than double to some 340 million tons, or about 23 % of their total use; increased production will be achieved through a 90 million ha expansion in land under cultivation, mostly in SS A and LAC, and an increase in cropping intensities in developing countries from 79 to 85 percent (additional 30 million ha) if all additional cropland were to come from the forests, tentative estimates for 69 countries indicate that deforestation would go down to 0.25 % from the 0.8 % in the ’80s (though the latter included deforestation from all causes); as marine catches are not likely to exceed 100 million tons, there will be a severe shortage of supply and increase in the price of fish, while aquaculture production may go up to 15-20 million tons from the present level of 12 million. The study identified the following development priorities, with many specific aspects: 36 increasing sustainable productivity in the higher potential areas; and reversing degradation and stabilizing production in marginal lands. The study proposes the following research to meet the above future priority development needs. Increasing sustainable productivity in the higher potential areas would require: the improvement of farm production/recycling of biological inputs through research on: nutrient recycling processes and techniques; NRM at village level; and integrated crop/livestock management systems; the raising of yield ceilings through research on: resistance/tolerance to soil moisture and nutrient constraint; micronutrient deficiencies; and soil dynamics under low- and high-input crop production; the improvement of irrigation management through research on: raising the efficiency of flood irrigation; adapting surge irrigation to conditions in developing countries; economical wastewater treatment methods; and institutional modalities of successful irrigation management systems; the decrease in crop-weed competition through research on: weed management; biological control methods and biodegradable herbicides; ways to reduce herbicide applications; the use of energy more efficiently through research on: energy-agriculture interrelationships for different ecosystems; integrated management of energy and other inputs (e.g., agrochemicals); and potential of biofuels for environmental and land use policy situations. Reversing degradation and stabilizing production in marginal lands would require: the conservation of local water through research on: minimum tillage systems for low-income farmers in the drylands; and pasture improvement in extensive range areas; the lowering of the relative costs of external inputs through research on: cheap techniques to use low-grade phosphate rocks; and pigeon peas mechanism for releasing bound soil phosphate, to transfer it to other crops; the integration of crop-livestock production through research on: reduction in labour and other constraints to adoption of silvopastoral systems; production of high-protein feeds and forages in legume-based systems; and ley farming systems for low fertility soils. 37 4.4. 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment This IFPRI-led initiative highlighted the fact that over 1.1 billion people live on incomes of a dollar a day or less per person, and the gap between the rich and the poor is widening. The projections to 2020 included the following: 90 million people are likely to be added to the world’s population every year; the number of malnourished children is likely to decline only slightly from 185 to 156 million by 2020; demand for food grains will increase by less than 3 percent, for livestock production by 17 percent, and for roots and tubers by 1 percent; 2 billion ha have been degraded in the past 50 years, 180 million ha of tropical forests were converted to other uses during the ’80s, marine fisheries are collapsing in parts of the world, and seasonal and regional water shortages afflict most developing countries. Priorities for the 2020 Vision were seen to be: the eradication of hunger and malnutrition, sustainable management of natural resources, and efficient, effective, and low cost agricultural systems. the strengthening of the capacity of developing-country governments to perform appropriate functions; the strengthening of the agricultural research and extension systems in and for developing countries. Recommended strategies for action called for: the enhancement of productivity, health, and nutrition of low-income people and increase in their access to employment and productive assets; the promotion of sustainable agricultural intensification and sound management of natural resources, with increased emphasis on areas with agricultural potential, fragile soils, limited rainfall, and widespread poverty; the development of efficient, effective and low-cost agricultural input and output markets; and the expansion of international cooperation and assistance and improve its efficiency and effectiveness. 38 4.5. Genetic Resources Policy Committee The Genetic Resources Policy Committee of the CGIAR in its report to ICW’95 highlighted the following priority needs: the CGIAR should expeditiously develop its guiding principles on Intellectual Property, to be used for policy development by centres and to set up material transfer arrangements; the CGIAR’s interests and perspectives on key policy issues need to be brought to the attention of the various policy-making bodies; to recognize the ethical concerns of farmers, indigenous communities and others about issues relating to the conservation and use of genetic resources; that the gender dimension becomes an integral part of CGIAR’s research agenda relating to the conservation and sustainable utilization of genetic resources; centres working in the area of recombinant DNA technology adhere to the regulations in force in the places where they work in the field testing of transgenic material; that the CGIAR strengthen its capacity to undertake analytical, information, coordination and representational functions on policy issues through the establishment of a genetic resources policy unit at IPGRI; to further pursue the organization of a workshop explore the ethical dimensions, while CGIAR centres assist interested NARS in the development of appropriate policies and procedures for the recognition of rights, and gather information on the origins of economically important genes and traits; that the IARCs promote, in cooperation with NARS and appropriate NGOs, symbiotic social contracts between private and public sector seed industry and rural women, to enhance their income and livelihood security; that the centres be proactive in providing assistance to NARS, when requested, in the development of a regulatory framework for the safe use of biotechnology. 39 4.6. Task Force on Sustainable Agriculture The Task Force recommended the need to address the issues concerning: the degradation of both marginal and high productivity irrigated lands; the problems of sustained cultivation of steep and sloping lands; the problems of deforestation and loss of biodiversity; the threat posed by declining reserves and increasing competition for water resources; the economic and policy measures required to increase sustainable productivity, while preserving the resource base. It proposed that an increasing proportion of funding be earmarked for sustainability related research; that the proposed activities for the development of a better information base be strengthened to indicate where areas most at risk are located; that research on the socioeconomic basis of sustainability be strengthened, re-examining the association of research on income generating crops with CGIAR activities; and research into the environmental, institutional and social aspects of resource management and planning be strengthened, as they affect adoption of research products. The Task Force further recommended that sustainability research should be funded in the form of incentives or seed money to encourage the development of consortia and networks; that the various on-going initiatives relating to soil, water and nutrient management in and out of the CGIAR be consolidated into a coherent, integrated programme; that the inter-centre programme on integrated pest management that incorporates AROs and IARCs be strengthened into a Consortium; that the ecoregional and Systemwide activities related to sustainability issues be advanced and refined by adopting an interdisciplinary approach that integrates productivity, environment and sustainability concerns; that consortia be established and present networks strengthened to forge closer links with NARS, NGOs, AROs and others; that the capability of the CGIAR System in the management of broadly based research consortia be strengthened. 4.7. Task Force on Ecoregional Approaches The main conclusions of the Task Force were to: use the US$ 10 million set aside for Systemwide and ecoregional initiatives exclusively for the orientation phase, following a "matching fund" approach to attract NARS and other local partners; substantially increase the CGIAR contribution to ecoregional programmes in the coming years; raise IARC’s contribution to ecoregional programmes to the 39% level recommended by TAC, which can be partially achieved by reorganizing existing activities in NRM and production systems research; apply a holistic, systemic approach to R&D that promotes the simultaneous integration of research, policy and action programmes in an appropriate mix for particular agro-socioeconomic settings. 40 develop the ecoregional programme in two phases: i) an orientation phase to establish the programme, including a research agenda, a governing structure, research management, division of labour between partners, and monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, and ii) an implementation phase, in which the ecoregional programme is operational; adopt 15 year as an initial time-horizon for ecoregional programmes. 4.8. Action Plan to Strengthen NARS-CGIAR Partnership The NARS Working Group propose an Action Plan to: develop improved mechanisms to ensure a stronger reflection of the collective views of NARS in CGIAR priority setting; improve modalities for developing formal partnerships between IARCs and NARS; enhance institutional capacity building at both the regional and national levels; establish with donor assistance four viable regional fora supported by a small Executive Secretariat, as focal points that handle the views of broadened NARS in setting CGIAR priorities; develop case studies of NARS/CGIAR interactions involving each of the regions, to identify successes and failures in collaborative research; strengthen individual NARS by broadening their membership, developing priority setting mechanisms and improving research-extension linkages; improve technologies to facilitate communications among NARS and between them and other members of the global research system. 4.9. TAC Commissioned Studies 4.9.1. Stripe Study of Genetic Resources in the CGIAR The study’s main conclusions were that: centres operate collectively as a System for genetic resources by: defining a unified direction; developing interactive genetic resources conservation and development activities, particularly with regional partners; integrating 41 existing efforts across centres; and exercising greater accountability to the major stakeholders. all work concerned with the conservation of genetic resources should be integrated into a single Systemwide Programme, within which policies will be developed and coordinated. IPGRI be reformulated as the International Agricultural Genetic Resources Institute (IAGRI), to be responsible for the Systemwide Programme there should be a specific Genetic Resources Programme Fund in the CGIAR, which would provide funds necessary to operate the Systemwide Programme; IARCs germplasm collections should be held in trust, and they should not seek to benefit financially from their commercialization; a standardized information management system for the GRP be created, to integrate databases across the CGIAR and to simplify communications with NARS Following a joint session with Centre Directors and Cosponsors, TAC recommended that: IPGRI should become the lead Centre for the Genetic Resources Programme, its DG being the GRP Director with overall responsibilities for the principles of the CGIAR’s involvements in genetic resources, including some policy and representational responsibilities for fisheries and livestock; Genetic Resources Units in CGIAR Centres should have a programme or equivalent status, their day-to-day management remaining with centres in which they are located; there should be a GRP Fund from which earmarked financial contributions will be allocated to all centres following TAC recommendations. 4.9.2. Inter-Centre Review of Rice The review panel concluded that: the overall level of core funding for rice research in the CGIAR be maintained, and that regional allocations should be commensurate with global needs; resources should be shifted from West Africa to Asia, which will consume over 90% of the increased output in rice required by the year 2030; 42 productivity improvement be brought about through technological change, the most important way to achieve the levels of production required by a twofold increase in demand; research should focus on (i) raising the yield potential for irrigated environments, (ii) managing pest and diseases to close yield gaps, and (iii) managing natural resources to sustain yields in irrigated, upland and inland valley environments; efforts in the less favourable environments should be closely monitored, to ensure that the potential gains that must be eventually realized are commensurate with the present high level of funding (20%); IITA and WARDA activities should be integrated, so that the reduced level of core support can be effectively applied. TAC concluded that: the global share of CGIAR funding for rice research should not be reduced; in principle resources allocated to research in Asia should be increased, possibly by shifting some responsibilities from IRRI to Asian NARS; given CGIAR’s policy decision to support rice improvement in WA, TAC finds no compelling reasons at this time to adjust the level of the resource envelope which it assigned to WARDA in the MTP for 1994-98; over the ensuing 5 years (1999-2003) CGIAR core funding to WARDA should be at a level consistent with its contribution to CGIAR priorities; that an IITA-WARDA integrated programme for resource management research is required, at least for the inland valley ecosystem of West Africa; the current regional rice research mandates of CIAT for LAC and WARDA for West Africa should continue to be supported; the CGIAR may be over-investing in the rainfed lowlands and uplands, although the issue warrants further consideration. 4.9.3. Livestock TAC’s Livestock Strategy Working Group in April 1993 recommended that: the relative overall allocation of funds to livestock research should remain as it is; 43 the current concentration of support in sub-Saharan Africa should be redistributed to both global and ecoregional programmes; on a programmatic basis the systemwide balance of efforts between animal health/disease research and animal production should continue as present, i.e., 1/3 and 2/3 respectively; research should focus on productivity of milk, meat and traction by cattle, sheep and goats, giving greater emphasis to a holistic approach in the context of crop-livestock/agroforestry systems; the relative imbalance of resources between those allocated to sub-Saharan Africa and other regions should be addressed; integrated crop-livestock research on a regional basis should have a high priority (i) in the subhumid tropics and highlands of sub-Saharan Africa, (ii) in the upland rice production systems of Asia, and (iii) in ecoregionally-oriented production systems research in the other regions. there is a need to develop an inter-centre framework for the coordination of livestock research among the CGIAR Centres and between them and other research institutes; the coordination framework must foster complementarities and synergies between global and ecoregionally focused research; there are strong arguments for the integration of parts of ILCA and ILRAD programmes; The Strategic Planning Task Force on Livestock in August 1994 recommended that: new approaches should be followed to develop Integrated Health Management systems that maximize productivity by reducing the impact of some key animal diseases; the programme in animal genetics be broadened to adapt new developments in molecular biology to methodologies for characterization, utilization and conservation of animal genetic resources, and techniques to identify superior genetic characteristics in tropical livestock; animal physiology work be reoriented to strengthen research in animal genetics, nutrition and health; new emphasis be given to work on feed resources, by integrating System- wide research on forage genetics and feeds nutritional value with regional activities on the production of feed resources; 44 strengthen research on livestock-related systems in an ecoregional context in close interaction with NARS, including increased emphasis on economic and social research, as well as on natural resource management. The Global Consultation in January 1995 on the agenda for livestock research identified the following common research themes arising from separate Group reports, which would qualify for international research efforts: Feed resources: production and utilization; Production Systems Research: integrated management, including NRM; Biodiversity: characterization, conservation and improvement of forage and animal genetic resources; Animal Health: integrated management technologies; Livestock Policy; NARS strengthening: research on delivery of technologies. The above recommendations provided a strategic basis to develop and implement a Systemwide livestock research programme covering the following: a global research agenda on priority themes identified through global consultations and dealing mainly with animal genetics, health and nutrition, which ILRI will develop in collaboration with NARS and ARIs (e.g., rumen ecology); livestock-related work dealing with common themes across centres in the areas of feed resources/systems/NRM/policy, coordinated by an Inter- Centre Livestock Programme Group (LPG) consisting of representatives of all CGIAR Centres engaged in livestock research, that operates as the overall linking mechanism between centres; and Systemwide Initiatives to support collaboration among CGIAR Centres and between them and non-CGIAR institutions around research projects supported by a Special Fund, administered by the LPG along clear responsibility lines and on an open and competitive basis that includes the use of external review panels and a set of criteria to evaluate the proposals (e.g., the SLI on Feed Resources). 4.9.4. Review of CGIAR Commitments in West Africa The panel recommended that: 45 there should be a decrease in IITA’s and ICRISAT’s research investments in the development and management of production systems (activities 1.2.1 and 1.2.2 in the present classification); there should be an increase IARCs efforts on upstream germplasm enhancement and breeding (category 1.1) and on process-oriented research in natural resource management (categories 1.2.3/5.a and 2.5); long-term joint programmes be developed in which IARCs are broadly responsible for upstream research in germplasm improvement and natural resource management, devolving to NARS research on production systems and management; (TAC does not believe that outright devolution will be appropriate under the existing circumstances, relying on strengthening partnerships as a way to shift centres’ research towards the more strategic end of the spectrum); an in-depth review of the current scientific approach to crop improvement in dry areas should be carried out, to know why "improved" materials are not better than the locals under field conditions; this should include a high-level review of ICRISAT’s crop improvement program, including CIRAD’s sorghum research; millet research efforts should focus on agroecological zones where it can be integrated into more complex cropping patterns; this should involve shifting millet improvement from the Niamey site to a less arid area; concentrate efforts to fortify NARS on training and information by consolidate similar training activities in the region along the lines of the "Inter-Centre Training Programme for Sub-Saharan Africa"; IARC’s regional research efforts should be harmonized by creating a common Board of Trustees for WARDA and IITA, with ex-officio representation of ICRISAT, ICRAF, and IRRI. 4.9.5. Inter-Centre Review of Root and Tuber Crops The review recommended that: global investments in R&D research should continue at least at the existing levels; and that there should be an increase in relative terms research on cassava and potato, while decreasing that on sweet potato; an Inter-Centre Committee be created to increase inter-centre collaboration, to develop a Systemwide strategy; to promote collaboration on vegetative propagation and conservation, biotechnology, post-harvest, policy, training and mechanization; the Committee should commission a task force to rationalize international phytosanitation regulations affecting the shipments of vegetatively-propagated materials; the Committee should operate as long as it adds value to inter-centre activities in the CGIAR; 46 the Committee should take the responsibility of reconciling discrepancies in production/consumption data available from different sources to reassess priorities; joint collaborative programme be worked out to devolve research on sweet potato to strong NARS; reductions in CIP’s research on sweet potato should be linked to opportunities for strategic partnerships with the Chinese Agricultural Research System; CIAT, CIP and IITA activities in technology transfer aimed at overcoming constraints to the dissemination of improved cultivars be supported, but avoid duplicating the effective technical assistance work of other development agencies; partnership with NARS, AROs and the private sector on postharvest technologies be explored, specially on characterization of starch and flour, food processing technologies and market research; duplications with AROs on advanced biotechnology should be avoided, focusing CGIAR activities on safe and viable technologies for vegetative propagation, especially of cassava. 4.9.6. Soil and Water Aspects of Natural Resources Management Research The study’s main conclusions are that: there is a need to improve the state of information on land and water degradation and its impacts on agricultural, forestry and fisheries production; that the CGIAR System should develop improved mechanism(s) by which centres, collectively, can be involved with other partners in generating and interpreting improved scientific evidence on the extent and magnitude of the impacts of agriculture, forestry and fisheries on the degradation and/or enhancement of natural resources and the impacts of such degradation and/or enhancement of agriculture, forestry and fisheries production and food supply; the CGIAR System has need for an integrated natural resources management (INRM) framework for research, linking NRM with poverty alleviation and protection of the environment; such a framework would involve four sets of inter-related linkages: • links between productivity-enhancing and resource conserving research (e.g., crop improvement and natural resources management); • spatial or landscape level linkages (e.g., upstream-downstream linkages in a watershed management framework); 47 • temporal linkages (e.g., links between present and future, or sustainability considerations); • linkages between research and the diffusion/adoption of results from such research. within the INRM framework, there is need for additional focus on specific subject matter; the linkages covered within the INRM framework need to be introduced into the CGIAR System not only through centre activities, but also to a great extent through work in the Systemwide Programmes, essentially those that implement the ecoregional approach; these include the emerging Water Initiative and the existing Soil, Water, Nutrient Management Initiative; the water-related research is a priority area in which the System’s scope and intensity of work should be significantly expanded, particularly related to water scarcity and competition, and water quality, but also in terms of the broader watershed management activities needed to optimize water availability and use; there is a need for increased research to look at why there is a lack of application of known technologies and ideas, and why there is a lack of widespread progress in natural resources management using much of the available research-generated information and technologies; an intensified and expanded collaborative mechanisms and activities be developed among CGIAR Centres and between CGIAR Centres and their non-CGIAR partners to help focus increased research and institution strengthening on issues related to adoption, adaptation, and utilization of existing NRM technologies and knowledge that so far have remained unused; there is a need for uniform and consistent criteria forjudging the priorities for NRM activities/research in the CGIAR Centres and Programmes; 4.9.7. Public Policy and Public Management Research The main conclusions of the study were that: the current efforts in research on common property resources be pursued, particularly in terms of solid empirical research; the CGIAR mandate on P&M research be broadened to also capture the i) public-private interface, ii) co-production of public goods by public and private sectors, and iii) role and management of NGOs and other non­ profit organizations; the work on global food and natural resource use projections be advanced; the possibilities of research on the political economy of P&M decisions be explored. 48 the current level of investment in socioeconomic, policy, and management research be maintained; the budget reporting on "policy" and "protecting the environment" programmes be disaggregated, to identify the real extent of P&M research in the System; a Systemwide initiative in policy research as an instrument to enhance collaboration and coordination should not be pursued; six specific criteria for priority setting be adopted, dealing with relevance to goals and efficiency,nature of outputs useful to NARS, comparative advantages, quality and impact assessment mechanisms; a modality be defined that would allow TAC to allocate resources on a competitive basis in response to requests by two or more centres to support project preparation and coordination and methodological backup activities; the potential of "new" institutional economics in P&M research be explored, that brings behaviour to understand determinants of choice of efficient institutions; the centres should have a minimum capacity to collaborate with IFPRI on P&M research; IFPRI’s and ISNAR’s involvements in ecoregional initiatives be reviewed, questioning the opportunities to derive lessons of international relevance and to achieve greater synergy in inter-centre collaboration; the responsibility for studies on global food and natural resource use projection be assigned to IFPRI. 4.9.8. Institution Strengthening Research and Services The main conclusions of the study were that: that CGIAR activities in institution strengthening should be demand- driven, more structured, and based on collaboration with other partners (internal and external); resources be shifted from services to research on institutional development related to agricultural research in developing countries, including the assessment of NARS institutional requirements, organizational structures, management practices, leadership skills, and planning, monitoring and evaluation tools; 49 careful review of TAC’s system to classify activities in relation to the "Fortifying NARS" category be made, to clearly distinguish those providing direct services to NARS. additional resources be made available for ISNAR to conduct a more comprehensive analysis on NARS strengths and weaknesses, as a basis to propose a plan for inter-institutional collaboration; there should be a closer collaboration among centres in all facets of institution strengthening support to NARS, particularly between the other centres and ISNAR; generic, methodological tools that can be used by other organizations and consultancy firms be developed and disseminated, freeing resources to devote a greater portion towards R&D activities; studies on successful and unsuccessful examples of institution-building activities, be carried out by ISNAR in collaboration with major donor agencies and/or with selected NARS; joint projects between other centres and ISNAR on areas such as setting research priorities, programme planning and evaluation, project preparation and budgeting, could be developed under the umbrella of a "Systemwide initiative" in institution strengthening; ISNAR should assist in the strengthening of emerging regional groupings, which can facilitate the Centre’s efforts both in institutional strengthening and NARS participation in CGIAR priority setting; the information services provided to NARS partners be distinguished from those given to the Centre’s own scientists and to donors/public, as well as between advice on research in mandated commodities from that on management of research in general. 4.9.9. ICLARM Mid-Term Review The review concluded that: the inadequate resources available to ICLARM for carrying out its mission be increased, to which TAC and the donor community should give the utmost priority; (TAC agrees with the members of the CGIAR that higher priority should be given to aquaculture research, and therefore recommends that additional US$2 million are allocated to ICLARM’s core funds for 1996, in addition to a transfer of US$2.5 million to its core programme. ICLARM agreed core research agenda for 1996 will then be twice as large as it was in 1994; 50 the additional US$ 1 million which TAC conditionally recommended for ICLARM be allocated; existing funds be restructured, to move some from the short-term and project based restricted core to unrestricted core; the technical issues surrounding the feasibility of the sites proposed by the Egyptian Government be considered, including implications on its strategic plan and research priorities; (TAC considered that the Egyptian offer will need to be studied carefully from scientific/technical, institution development and financial perspectives); strategic alliances with capable NARS and internationally assertive advance science institutes be sought to enhance its scientific capacity. 51 CHAPTER 5 - ANALYTICAL PROCESS : ACTIVITIES Introduction As discussed in Chapter 3, since 1992 the CGIAR’s research and research-related work has been classified in five major undertakings: conservation and management of natural resources; germplasm enhancement and breeding; development and management of production systems; socioeconomic, public policy and public management research; and institution building. In 1995, in preparation for the Lucerne Consultation, these activities were regrouped as follows1: increasing productivity which combined activities in germplasm enhancement and breeding and production systems development and management; protecting the environment which included activities in natural resources management; saving biodiversity which included activities on germplasm collection and conservation; improving policies which included all the socioeconomic policy and management work; and strengthening national research programmes which included all the activities under institution building. TAC began this priority analysis by considering, in Systemwide terms, what should be the relative distribution of CGIAR efforts among these five undertakings or broad activity categories. It thereby took the 1996 allocation of resources to each of these categories as a starting point in the discussion. Consideration was then given as to whether, on the basis of internal and external developments, a shift in priorities was warranted. Emphasis was thereby given to the outcome of the important Systemwide studies that had been conducted either by TAC or other institutions or CGIAR Committees and which are reported upon in Chapter 4. The Committee reiterated that there is no clear dividing line between these categories of activities, and that in many instances, activities may overlap into several categories. There was no basis for quantitative approaches to support an analysis of this kind. TAC therefore relied on a delphi approach to engage in a broad discussion as to the future balance of effort of the CGIAR in each of these undertakings. TAC Members responded to a questionnaire and subsequently met to discuss their responses. In the ensuing discussion, consensus was reached on the broad directions the CGIAR would take. TAC also took into TAC/CGIAR, 1995. The 1996 CGIAR Research Agenda. TAC Secretariat, FAO, Rome. The definition of activities concerned is listed in Annex 1. 52 account the recommendations of each of the regional fora. In the following sections, a rationale is provided on the future directions of the priority of each of these activities. Concrete recommendations on target percentages are provided in Chapter 8. 5.1 Increasing Productivity 5.1.1. Germplasm Enhancement and Breeding TAC is in favour of an increase in resources allocated to germplasm enhancement and breeding research relative to other activities. It was noted that TAC’s 1994-98 MTP recommendations would have had the category at 21-23% of CGIAR resources but that it is at about 20% of the proposed 1996 budget, without including support transferred from complementary to the agreed agenda, and at 19% if such transfers are included. TAC Members agreed that the allocation should reach at least the range recommended earlier and perhaps should go to the upper end of that range. The rationale for this judgement is laid out in the following paragraphs. In particular TAC recommends an increase in pre-breeding activities (1.1.1) relative to other activities in (1.1). This work emphasizes the incorporation of novel genes from various sources, including from like species, from primitive materials and wild relatives, and from unrelated species. TAC notes that the pre-breeding, by its nature, has the broad generic applications which are desired characteristics of CGIAR activities and that opportunities are good in this arena. As well, TAC notes that there are still opportunities through the applications of molecular biology in each of the areas in which breeding is currently carried out. These are largely in the areas of marker assisted breeding, with its promise for more efficiency and more rapid progress. TAC does not recommend an expansion in work on transgenic transfers and observes that, with few exceptions, this field awaits advances in the underlying science, which itself is largely in the hands of advanced scientific institutions. TAC recommends no increase in conventional breeding for crops (1.1.2), noting that several NARS are full partners in such activities while many more still rely heavily on CGIAR for finished or quasi-finished materials. TAC’s sense is that centre efforts need to be rebalanced, with emphasis on incorporating primitive and novel genes through pre­ breeding and on those crops of more importance to countries with less advanced NARS while reducing its efforts on those crops of most importance to countries with stronger NARS. The former will continue to reap large benefits from the CGIAR’s intraspecific work, while the latter will gain most from the prebreeding activities. TAC recommends an increase in livestock improvement (1.1.3). It was noted that there is a considerable investment in improving species and breeds of importance to the CGIAR and that the System must stay abreast of such work. Overall, TAC recommends that ILRI consider more effort on molecular genetics related to disease resistance and is disposed to support such an increase, as part of the overall effort to enhance resistance to trypanosomiasis and theileriosis in livestock. 53 Discussion of tree breeding (1.1.4) concluded that a marginal increase is justified in this area. There are further opportunities through identifying and testing elite materials, the phenotypic selection and initial rounds of cloning of elite materials. It was thought that large scale cloning and distribution should be the province of NARS. Methods to improve cloning were discussed, but TAC converged around the idea that much of such work is underway in non-CGIAR centres, including some in developing countries. The importance of high-value trees yielding special chemicals for the pharmaceutical and other industries was considered. The possibility of extending the CGIAR’s efforts to fruits and other high-value trees was discussed. It was concluded that there are limited opportunities for generic work, that some location-specific breeding is underway in the private sector, and there were questions about the extent to which the poor would benefit as special conditions appear to be required for the adoption of improved materials. TAC should continue to encourage CIFOR and ICRAF for further clarification of their roles in this area. TAC recommended an increase in the investment in fish breeding (1.1.5); in particular the opportunities for improving carp species was noted. ICLARM’s work on tilapia produced notable genetic gains, is widely known among specialists in fish breeding and has promise for the poor. Some specialists now see good opportunities for carp. Few others are working in this arena, largely because the possibilities for improving common fish strains were thought to be limited. TAC believes that the successes with tilapia, and the realization of the promise for carp, will bring increased non-CGIAR investment into play. Against this background, TAC recommends an increase in CGIAR funding to this activity. 5.1.2. Production Systems Development and Management In considering activities under this category, TAC started from the following presumptions: that the over-riding significance of the CGIAR’s work is the improved production and supply of food for the poor, especially in rural areas; this will lead to the general economic advance of those regions and thus create diversification in the opportunities for income generation; all of this will be done in the context of environmental care so that land and aquatic resources of all kinds will be preserved, and if possible enhanced; TAC’s concerns are that the research for which the CGIAR is responsible should have equal concern for the conservation of on-site resources as well as resources at locations away from the immediate places at which new production technologies are deployed; although most attention in the CGIAR has been paid to the conservation of biodiversity, TAC believes that equal regard should be paid to the conservation of physical attributes of the environment, including the especially valuable attributes of soil, water and terrain; 54 TAC believes that there should be continuing investment in study of the effectiveness of the transfer of new technologies to their ultimate users especially of those technologies which introduce novel approaches to environmental management. TAC has consistently emphasized that research on agricultural production systems must be carried out with a sustainability perspective. The purpose must be to enhance productivity with minimal degradation, or if possible improvement, of the natural resources at the site of production and locations external to that site. Otherwise the potential for food production by future generations is put at risk. The CGIAR currently allocates approximately 24% of its core resources to research on production systems. This is a rapid reduction from 33% of resources that were allocated to this category during 1991. In 1992, TAC had recommended a reduction of efforts in this category from 33% to about 29% in view of the increasing national capacity to deal with these activities which mostly consist of applied and adaptive research. TAC also noted at that time that the mode of operation for this type of research should evolve towards greater use of networks and consortia. While the Committee is aware that a reduction in this type of work is already greater than TAC’s 1992 recommendations, it believes that a further slight decrease in resources allocated could be justified, primarily through more efficient organization of the work and the growing ability of NARS-based networks to assume responsibility for this type of work. In the future, this type of research should have both off­ site and on-site components, and should have a direct impact on sustainability. Production systems research, which has no direct bearing on sustainability, should be gradually phased out. Over the next three to five years, TAC will carefully keep track of ongoing activities to monitor developments. Given the importance of productivity increasing resource conserving technologies TAC recommends that in the future, activities under "Production Systems Development and Management" should not be portrayed separately from those under category 2 "Protecting the Environment". As work on production systems should not be to the exclusion of conserving natural resources, nor should work on natural resources management be to the exclusion of productivity. This perception suggests combining both categories of activities. However, such a change must be made over time so that comparability with past allocations can be assured. More on this in Chapter 8 on recommendations. Current activities on production systems research are labelled under four headings: cropping systems; livestock systems; tree systems; and fish systems. • Cropping Systems Cropping systems research currently accounts for approximately 15% of CGIAR core resources and approximately two thirds of all production systems research. This predominance of work on cropping systems reflects the traditional focus of the Group on the major food crops of concern to the poor. With the expansion of the CGIAR in 1992, increasing emphasis has to be given to the newer production sectors, in particular trees and fish and also to livestock. Increased resources for these three production sectors will need to be derived from reduced investment in cropping systems research. 55 • Livestock Systems Livestock production systems research currently accounts for 6% of the CGIAR’s core resources which is well below what was recommended by TAC during 1992. TAC in particular believes that much greater resources have to be allocated to livestock research, particularly in mixed farming systems because of its current inadequate coverage. TAC thereby notes that the contribution of livestock to the sustainability of production systems is vital, and that there is a strong increase in demand for livestock products over the next two decades and of the importance of intermediate products such as traction and manure to poor smallholder farmers. • Tree Systems Tree systems research currently account for only 2% of the CGIAR core resources and there is a need to expand the CGIAR’s efforts in both forestry and agroforestry systems. This will be further illustrated in Chapter 6 on production sectors. • Fish Systems Research on fish systems is currently allocated 1% of the CGIAR’s core resources. At Lucerne, it was recommended that the Group strengthen its efforts in aquatic resources research management. TAC, therefore, believes that increased resources can be allocated to research on this activity. 5.2. Protecting the Environment This category of work accounts for approximately 16% of the CGIAR’s core resources and primarily deals with research on natural resources management. TAC has made a comprehensive review of the future of this type of work.2 TAC believes that the overall allocation of resources to this type of work is adequate and can be kept constant but that the CGIAR needs to give greater emphasis to strategic research and to its off-site components. There is also a need for additional focus on specific subject matters, in particular between productivity enhancing and resource conserving research, spatial or landscape linkages, temporal linkages and linkages between research and diffusion/adoption. As already indicated under Section 5.1.2. there is a need to integrate activities in this category with those of production systems into a joint category of "Sustainable Production Systems". TAC Secretariat, 1995. Priorities and Strategies for Soil and Water Aspects of Natural Resources Management Research in the CGIAR. FAO, Rome. (SDR/TAC:IAR/95/14) 56 5.3. Saving Biodiversity The CGIAR currently allocates approximately 10% of its core resources to activities on biodiversity, in particular, germplasm enhancement, conservation, characterization and evaluation. This activity accounted for 6% of resources during 1991 and TAC, at that time, recommended that it should be increased to about 8%. The rapid increase in resources allocated to saving biodiversity exceeding substantially the levels that were originally recommended by TAC reflects the growing importance that is being attached to this work as also illustrated at the Lucerne Conference. The CGIAR is actually a major depository of large ex situ collections for the main food crops which were largely assembled before the beginning of the last decade. The Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD), which occurred in 1992, and the subsequent developments in this arena created a totally new environment in terms of germplasm value, germplasm conservation and exchange. In such a new environment, the CGIAR should play a major role at an international (or transnational) level. The CGIAR/FAO Agreement that was signed at ICW’94 placed CGIAR collections under the trusteeship of FAO for the benefit of mankind. The international centres still have the responsibility of preserving them, characterizing them and boost their utilization as a way to promote sustainability of agricultural production and to alleviate poverty. The present difference between the current allocation and 1992 is due to a more positive public attitude towards conservation of genetic resources, the increasing involvement of the international centres on sustainability and agroecological research and the entry into the CGIAR of centres like ICLARM, ICRAF and CIFOR, which are giving increased emphasis to genetic resources conservation and utilization than before. As in many agricultural research organizations, CGIAR genebanks have been centred on the mandate crops and their wild relatives. Forest and some animal resources are now within the CGIAR responsibilities. These new fields bring their own specific methodological problems, like in situ preservation technologies or genetic diversity characterization. The CGIAR cannot, however, rely on indoor research only to solve such problems and must make the best use of other actors’ activities in the domain. In situ conservation implies large scale country specific activities which cannot be taken up, nor should they be, solely by the CGIAR Centres. TAC is in favour of increased support to CGIAR activities related to the conservation of animal genetic resources, thereby focusing on genetic tools to help characterize populations and identify those populations which actually justify conservation. Resulting from the stripe study on the situation of genetic resources in the CGIAR, and due to the new environment created by the signature of CBD, a more uniform treatment of biodiversity issues among the CGIAR Centres was considered necessary and a coordination mechanism for such was proposed and created centred at IPGRI and under the supervision of the Intercentre Working Group on Genetic Resources. 57 A modest increase in the priority for saving biodiversity should be specifically allocated to germplasm related activities in the different centres and to more research on conservation per se, such as on core collections, seed pathology and seed physiology. Such activities are mainly those of germplasm collection, characterization (be it molecular or not), evaluation, rejuvenation, the study of diversity levels sampled and/or maintained at ex situ, in situ and on-farm level work, methods of preservation for some species, etc. Considering also that for some species (if not for all), molecular characterization may be the most efficient way of doing such tasks, and it is also relatively new in the CGIAR system, this is another area where an increase in activity is expected, even considering that advanced research institutions should take up a major part of the task (national programmes do not have a comparative advantage in this case). A consideration here is that although it could be thought that some of the above mentioned tasks could be performed with funds that are now used for preservation/rejuvenation/characterization of the present collections and that such tasks will diminish as some of those tasks approach a steady state of relative completion, that is not the case at least for the next five to ten years. The present status of the CGIAR collections indicate that they will still demand a long time to reach the point where most of them will be characterized, safely duplicated and adequate samples placed under long-term storage. Since this is part of the agreement that was signed by the CGIAR when the collections were placed under the trusteeship of FAO, the Centres cannot decrease their activities in such tasks. Taking all these considerations together, a small increase in allocation for such activity category is justified, mainly to cover the new research areas, focusing on generic activities and technologies that are specific of the CGIAR responsibilities and not already covered by others. 5.4. Improving Policies TAC takes as its starting point the recommendation of the Stripe Study on Policy and Management Research in the CGIAR that the current level of investment in socioeconomic, policy and management research be maintained. Within that broad category, however, some changes in emphasis are called for, in particular, the relative weight between economic and social analysis (activity 4.1) and policy analysis (activity 4.2). The line between the two categories is to some extent arbitrary, but within the continuum of issues covered under these two categories, TAC would recommend a shift in balance towards economic and social analysis. TAC recognizes that policy work within the CGIAR has been valuable at a time when many developing countries were liberalizing their market and trade regimes in the 1980s, but now that many of the reforms are in place, the urgent need that attended that transitional period has lessened. Further, liberalized regimes by definition would involve 58 relatively less sectoral intervention and therefore there will be in the long term less need for the kind of sectoral policy work that the CGIAR has been concentrating on. On the other hand, as the CGIAR is moving toward more research on natural resources management, there will be increasing need for work that seeks to understand decision making by collective entities other than the state. The scope for social and economic analysis will correspondingly expand. The CGIAR with its close contact with some of the issues raised by natural resources management would be well placed to initiate research on them. Further, with the basic social science in this area being substantially incomplete, research in this area can be expected to yield results which are of international significance. TAC recommends that research on the governance and management of public systems (activity 4.4) remain the same as currently, notwithstanding the fact that the research part of the work done on institution building and advice to NARS (former activity 5.3) will in the future be included in categories 4.3 and 4.4. With respect to activity 4.4, research on organization and management of institutes, TAC recommends that, in line with its views expressed in the strategic study on institution strengthening research, more resources be allocated to this type of work. 5.5. Strengthening National Programmes • Training It is TAC’s view that current limitations on NARS are less in the area of human capital and more because of limitations on operating capital, on physical facilities, on appropriate incentive systems, and on effective management and administration. NARS do continue to request assistance from the CGIAR, especially for support for graduate training. TAC notes that such training is better financed through the loans and bilateral arrangements that are available, especially to national programmes, than through the limited funds available to the CGIAR. As for the other limitations, only that pertaining to management and administration is within the CGIAR’s purview (see discussion on institution building/advice to NARS). TAC recommends a continuing reduction of Investment in training until such time as the more evident limitations on NARS have been resolved. • Documentation, publication and dissemination of information TAC notes that this activity includes some activities which really pertain more to centres’ efforts to keep the world apprised of their work than to developing the information facilities of the NARS. TAC recommends that these expenditures be transferred to the administrative budgets of centres and treated as a part of overhead. This will result in an apparent reduction of resources allocated to activity 5.2. On the other hand, TAC notes the growing opportunities through modem communication technology and feels strongly that more investment is required in this area. While TAC feels that bilateral and loan arrangements 59 are the logical source of such funding, TAC believes that the CGIAR should play an advocacy role on behalf of the NARS. • Institution building/advice to NARS Since there is great need to increase applied research to underpin strengthening of NARS and to synthesize the experiences gained within the CGIAR, TAC recommends an increase in investment in this activity. This is consistent with TAC views on the future of institution strengthening in the CGIAR. Given its view that work in this area is much like work under 4.3 and 4.4, TAC will recommend that, in the future, the two categories be combined and reported with undertaking 4. (TAC notes that to ensure comparability in budgets over time, there should be a period during which the two are reported as now and in the new format.) • Networks It is the view of TAC that the CGIAR should gradually phase out its investments in networks aimed at institution strengthening as this should be the responsibility of individual NARS and their respective subregional organizations, such as CORAF, INS AH, ASARECA and SACCAR in the case of Africa. This view is supported by deliberations that have taken place in the recently organized regional fora whereby great emphasis was placed on close linkages through networks within subregions due to the need to address common agricultural issues, TAC therefore recommends a further gradual reduction in investment in this subcategory. 60 CHAPTER 6 - ANALYSIS BY PRODUCTION SECTOR AND COMMODITY 6.1. Production Sectors The 1992 review of CGIAR priorities and strategies did not try to address the relative balance of CGIAR efforts among agriculture (crops and livestock), forestry and fisheries. There were three major reasons for this. First, on the basis of valid analytical grounds, a different quantitative analysis was chosen for agriculture, forestry and fisheries, the results of which could not be added together. Second, CGIAR activities in forestry at that time were only just beginning while those in fisheries had still to be accepted. Third, TAC’s analysis did not provide grounds for an absolute decline in support for agricultural research. The Committee’s judgement, at that time, was that the proposed research programmes in agroforestry, forestry and fisheries should not be funded at the expense of critical research needs in crops and livestock. With the rapid development of research programmes for these new production sectors since 1992, TAC now has the necessary information to proceed in making recommendations on the balance across different production sectors. Crops and livestock were thereby treated as sectors on their own. The Committee limited its quantitative analysis to CGIAR commodities only, or in the case of forestry and fisheries, to those commodities or aspects only of immediate relevance to the CGIAR. The analysis was also based on the likely production of these commodities in the year 2010 and the value was estimated on the basis of 1989-91 international commodity prices. A discussion of the methodology used is provided in Annex II. An overview of the importance of each of the production sectors as well as the need for research and specific role of the CGIAR therein is provided in Annex III. Please note that CGIAR commodities account for approximately 74% of the value of all crops, 52% of livestock, 79% of forestry and 72% of fisheries. Table 1A provides an illustration of the relative importance of each of the production sectors both globally and by region based on their share of value of production by 2010. Crops account for 52.5%, livestock for 21.7%, forestry for 19.7%, and fisheries for 6.1% of the global value of commodities of relevance to the CGIAR. On a regional basis, Asia has the largest share of production value accounting for 58.3%, Latin America for 18.4%, Africa for 15.2% and the WAN A region for 8%. Table IB presents an overview of the value of each of the commodities making up that of the production sector. It is shown that rice, fuelwood and charcoal, milk, beef and buffalo meat, and wheat are the five most important commodities globally, based on value of production. Regionally, however, there are strong differences, with fuelwood and charcoal being the most important commodity in sub-Saharan Africa, rice in Asia, beef and buffalo meat in Latin America, and wheat in the WANA region. TAC then modified these production values to take into account poverty by giving greater weight to those countries with more poverty than to other countries (see also Annex II for 61 methodology aspects). The relative importance of crops then declined from 52.5% to 49.2% and of fisheries from 6.1% to 5.7%. The livestock and forestry sectors increase in importance if greater weight is given to poverty from 21.7% to 22.6% and from 19.7% to 22.5% respectively. Further quantitative analysis shows only marginal differences if more strict poverty variables are incorporated therein. These data compare with the current allocation of CGIAR resources to production sectors of about 74% to crops, 18% to livestock, 5% to forestry, and 3% to fisheries. Note, however, that the estimate of relative share by production sector is based only on the CGIAR portfolio that can be allocated by commodity and therefore accounts for less than 50% of the overall effort. These results would suggest that the CGIAR is relatively over-investing in crops and relatively under-investing in the livestock, forestry and fisheries sectors. The forestry sector, in particular, appears to receive, on the basis of its share in value of production, an inadequate share of the relative CGIAR effort. These results confirm the outcome of the analysis presented in Chapter 5. 6.2. Analysis by Commodity The CGIAR commodity portfolio accounts for approximately 25 agricultural commodities but it is difficult to express the CGIAR’s interest in forestry/agroforestry and fisheries in specific commodities. An overview of important factors to consider in assigning CGIAR priorities for each individual crop is provided in Annex III. As already referred to under Section 6.1, TAC undertook a quantitative analysis of the relative importance of commodities of interest to the CGIAR based on their estimated value of production in the year 2010. Table 2b provides an estimate of value of production in the year 2010 by region and by commodity. Rice, fuelwood and charcoal, milk, beef and buffalo meat, wheat, maize and fish are the highest ranking commodities in terms of their global importance but strong regional differences occur when adjusted for poverty (Table 2b). Some commodities gain in their relative importance while others decline. Those commodities of particular importance to the poor, whose value increases after modification for poverty, are sorghum, millet, cassava, banana and plantain, pulses, groundnut, coconut, sheep and goats, and milk. The other commodities listed decline in relative importance. This relative importance further increases or decreases as the poverty variable is more narrowly targeted. Table 2 compares, for crops, the current allocation of CGIAR funds with their share in the commodity value. While rice accounts for nearly a third of the total value, it receives only 24.6% of core funds. Wheat accounts for 13.5% of the value and receives 11% of the funds, whereas maize, with 10.3% of the value and 14.4% of CGIAR funds appears to be relatively over-funded on the basis of value of production considerations. Other commodities that, on the basis of these demand considerations, appear to have a larger share of CGIAR funds than their share of production value are barley, sorghum, millet, cassava, potato and banana and plantain. 62 However, these figures must be treated with caution as they only reflect the value of future demand and do not take into account other considerations such as the opportunities for technical breakthroughs, the chances of success of research, alternative sources of supply, or the cost or relevance of the research. In considering future priorities for commodity research in the CGIAR, TAC started on the assumption that the current 1996 portfolio and its balance provided the basis for the future and that only marginal changes would be made. It was also noted that CGIAR commodities have been selected on the basis of their importance for the poor so there is no immediate candidate for elimination from the CGIAR portfolio. TAC Members expressed their views on the future priority of commodities through a questionnaire that had been circulated by the Secretariat. The following changes in priority ranking have been suggested. Only when at least two TAC Members voted either positively or negatively, have these suggestions been included. Candidates for increased priority Rice is the most important commodity and is the major staple of most of the world’s poor, particularly in Asia. High returns from investment in rice have been obtained and according to the congruence analysis in Table 3, the CGIAR is under-investing in rice. The Inter-Centre Review of Rice recommended that the share of CGIAR resources allocated to rice research should not be reduced and also recommended a redistribution of its regional allocation. Livestock - The CGIAR is currently under-investing in livestock research and the level of investment is well below that recommended by TAC in 1992. Furthermore, milk and sheep and goats are commodities of high importance to the poorest. Forest - The CGIAR is greatly under-investing in forest commodity research. Fish - The CGIAR is currently under-investing in fish research which is of great importance to the poor, particularly fishermen in poorer coastal areas. Sweet potato - According to Table 2, the CGIAR is under-investing in sweet potato research. On the other hand, the Inter-Centre Review of Root and Tuber Crops Research noted that some responsibility currently assumed by the CGIAR could be transferred to national systems, particularly in Asia. Cassava is a commodity which is particularly important for the poor, also for the urban poor. It is labour intensive and payoff to CGIAR investments has been high. However, on the basis of the congruence analysis, the CGIAR is already over-investing in this commodity. Potato is a commodity of rapidly growing importance in developing countries. There is good potential for further productivity improvement. A major effort is needed to successfully combat the potato blight problem. 63 Soybean is a commodity which is rapidly gaining in importance in Africa and it is of importance to the poor. The IITA External Review Panel recommended that greater emphasis be given to soybean research. The payoff from additional research could be high. Candidates for reduced priority Pieeonpea is of importance primarily in India which accounts for 85 % of global production. TAC has asked ICRISAT to undertake a major review during 1997 of the appropriateness of further investments in pigeonpea research. The Committee should carefully look at the outcome of this review. Cowpea - CGIAR investment in cowpea research is well above that which can be justified in the congruence analysis. The IITA External Review Panel also suggested that IITA carefully assess the possibility of increasing its investment in soybean research and correspondingly reducing its cowpea research. Maize - The congruence analysis in Table 2 has shown that the CGIAR is relatively over- investing in maize research. Furthermore there are alternative sources of supply, particularly from the private sector. Sweet Potato - As already indicated, the Roots and Tubers Review has suggested that given the overwhelming importance of sweet potato in China, where an increasing proportion is used for pig production, the CGIAR could gradually reduce its investment in Asia and hand over responsibilities to national research systems. Wheat is a commodity of importance to the poor, also to the urban poor. A good return to CGIAR investment has been obtained. However, the growing strength of national research systems and the emergence of a strong private sector would suggest that a slight reduction in its priority could be considered. Chickpea is of importance particularly in Asia and in the WANA region. The CGIAR is relatively over-investing in chickpea compared to its share in value of production. To date, little impact has been obtained from the CGIAR investments in chickpea research and progress in obtaining breakthroughs has been slow. Table 1a: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities by production sector; commodities valued in 1989/91 international $ Production sectors (% of total) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Total Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3% 2.7% 5.6% 0.6% 15.2% Asia 34.4% 9.3% 10.0% 4.7% 58.3% C. & S. America 7.7% 6.5% 3.8% 0.5% 18.4% WANA 4.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.3% 8.0% Total 52.5% 21.7% 19.7% 6.1% 100.0% 4> Regional share (% of sector) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Sub-Saharan Africa 12.0% 12.5% 28.3% 10.3% Asia 65.5% 42.9% 50.5% 77.4% C. & S. America 14.6% 30.1% 19.1% 8.0% WANA 8.0% 14.5% 2.1% 4.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% { Table 1b: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities: values in 1000 int’l $ and shares by commodity Regional values and shares of commodity Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Share of Commodity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North Africa Share of commodity grand total Rice 5536690 4.1% 119371469 88.8% 6371498 4.7% 3080386 2.3% 134360043 17.5% Wheat 2097288 3.3% 40257850 63.7% 5744851 9.1% 15078283 23.9% 63178272 8.2% Maize 5275084 11.0% 27767295 57.8% 11579343 24.1% 3438061 7.2% 48059784 6.3% Barley 347939 5.2% 846017 12.7% 599640 9.0% 4872428 73.1% 6666025 0.9% Sorghum 3302430 38.1% 2352206 27.2% 2681450 31.0% 326331 3.8% 8662417 1.1% Millet 3112521 56.4% 2335319 42.3% 28788 0.5% 41791 0.8% 5518419 0.7% Cassava 9094680 63.5% 2206144 15.4% 3028944 21.1% 88 0.0% 14329858 1.9% Potato 525052 4.2% 7863944 63.1% 2101902 16.9% 1977514 15.9% 12468412 1.6% cr* Sweet potato and yam 4628121 29.7% 10600972 68.0% 350252 2.2% 8716 0.1% 15588061 2.0% Ui Sweet potato 547636 4.8% 10559409 93.3% 198672 1.8% 8716 0.1% 11314433 1.5% Yam 4080486 95.5% 41563 1.0% 151580 3.5% 0 0.0% 4273628 0.6% Banana 1608592 16.0% 5162804 51.4% 3031567 30.2% 234788 2.3% 10037751 1.3% Plantain 3110477 78.7% 90394 2.3% 750298 19.0% 0 0.0% 3951168 0.5% Pulses 5613884 19.1% 16898684 57.5% 4119553 14.0% 2756104 9.4% 29388226 3.8% Beans 2784840 21.2% 6248441 47.6% 3732009 28.4% 357300 2.7% 13122590 1.7% Chickpea 412569 5.0% 6167893 74.5% 244111 2.9% 1455887 17.6% 8280461 1.1% Pigeon pea 397834 12.9% 2656594 85.8% 41375 1.3% 0 0.0% 3095803 0.4% Lentil 55991 3.0% 980001 53.3% 45512 2.5% 757595 41.2% 1839100 0.2% Broad beans 218072 17.1% 829347 65.2% 42754 3.4% 182357 14.3% 1272529 0.2% Cowpea 1744577 98.1% 16408 0.9% 13792 0.8% 2965 0.2% 1777742 0.2% Soyabean 235130 0.9% 7510748 30.1% 17000509 68.2% 184002 0.7% 24930389 3.3% Groundnut 3344029 16.7% 15614744 78.0% 897539 4.5% 171848 0.9% 20028160 2.6% Coc onut 326142 6.2% 4566089 86.2% 403239 7.6% 0 0.0% 5295470 0.7% Beef and buffalo meat 10023010 13.9% 24384940 33.7% 30367315 42.0% 7565729 10.5% 72340993 9.4% Sheep and goat meat 3887348 18.8% 8906057 43.1% 1492599 7.2% 6374033 30.9% 20660037 2.7% Total milk 6926299 9.5% 38033997 51.9% 18112646 24.7% 10198311 13.9% 73271254 9.6% Fuelwood and charcoal 39762311 33.7% 56381380 47.7% 19897240 16.8% 2103035 1.8% 118143966 Roundwood 15.4%2964668 9.0% 19879322 60.5% 8944718 27.2% 1067579 3.2% 32856287 4.3% Fish food 4815590 10.3% 36080074 77.4% 3741864 8.0% 1967100 4.2% 46604627 6.1% Grand total by region 116537286 447110448 141245755 61446128 766339617 100.0% Regional share of grand total 15.2% 58.3% 18.4% 8.0% 100.0% Table 2a: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities by production sector, weighted by the modified welfare indicator (income threshold value 9000 PPP $, exponent set as 2) Production sectors (% of total) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Total Sub-Saharan Africa 10.7% 4.6% 9.4% 1.1% 25.7% Asia 27.6% 10.2% 8.8% 4.0% 50.6% C. & S. America 7.5% 5.3% 4.0% 0.5% 17.2% WANA 3.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 6.5% Total 49.2% 22.6% 22.5% 5.7% 100.0% Regional share (% of sector) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Sub-Saharan Africa 21.8% 20.2% 41.6% 18.5% Asia 56.1% 45.2% 39.2% 69.9% C. & S. America 15.2% 23.3% 17.6% 7.9% WANA 6.9% 11.2% 1.6% 3.7% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Formula: VOD * (1 - ((1-Gini coefficient)*Income 2003)/9000) ~ 2 Table 2b: 2010 value of demand of CGlAR commodities weighted by the modified welfare indicator (income threshold 9000 PPP $, exponent set as 2) Regional values and shares of commodity •Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Share of Commodity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North Africa Share of commodity grand total Rice 4708715 7.6% 52468947 84.9% 3445657 5.6% 1172201 1.9% 61795520 Wheat 15.8%1791056 6.9% 15272602 58.8% 2457037 9.5% 6437137 24.8% 25957832 6.6% Maize 5245360 26.5% 6138786 31.0% 6614470 33.4% 1793637 9.1% 19792253 5.1% Barley 309564 13.3% 270648 11.6% 258472 11.1% 1495443 64.1% 2334128 0.6% Sorghum 2847467 52.8% 1472576 27.3% 886960 16.4% 189814 3.5% 5396817 1.4% Millet 2662424 62.6% 1555708 36.6% 7545 0.2% 24975 0.6% 4250653 1.1% Cassava 7773848 72.9% 1077705 10.1% 1805777 16.9% 49 0.0% 10657380 2.7% Potato 458058 8.9% 2932794 57.3% 903435 17.6% 828327 16.2% 5122614 1.3% Sweet potato and yam 3814821 69.0% 1502790 27.2% 203267 3.7% 4282 0.1% 5525160 1.4% Sweet potato 451399 21.8% 1496898 72.4% 115298 5.6% 4282 0.2% 2067878 0.5% Yam 3363421 97.3% 5892 0.2% 87968 2.5% 0 0.0% 3457282 0.9% Banana 1390477 23.8% 2873076 49.1% 1496793 25.6% 87399 1.5% 5847746 1.5% Plantain 2635696 86.4% 45602 1.5% 370949 12.2% 0 0.0% 3052248 0.8% O' Pulses 4856807 26.3% 10334089 55.9% 2126655 11.5% 1177081 6.4% 18494632 4.7% Beans 2409282 29.0% 3821123 46.0% 1926591 23.2% 152596.3 1.8% 8309592 2.1% Chickpea 356931 7.3% 3771865 77.3% 126018.7 2.6% 621782.5 12.8% 4876597 1.2% Pigeonpea 344183 17.3% 1624593 81.6% 21359.1 1.1% 0 0.0% 1990135 0.5% Lentil 48441 4.9% 599302 60.2% 23495 2.4% 323555 32.5% 994793 0.3% Broad beans 188663 23.7% 507172 63.7% 22071 2.8% 77881 9.8% 795788 0.2% Cowpea 1509307 98.8% 10034 0.7% 7120 0.5% 1266 0.1% 1527727 0.4% Soyabean 194470 1.9% 1841788 18.1% 8096180 79.4% 62910 0.6% 10195349 2.6% Groundnut 2868138 26.8% 7389260 69.1% 363815 3.4% 70925 0.7% 10692138 2.7% Coconut 274289 9.0% 2579933 84.8% 188983 6.2% 0 0.0% 3043205 0.8% Beef and buffalo meat 8522888 24.9% 10429568 30.5% 12146542 35.5% 3146953 9.2% 34245951 8.8% Sheep and goat meat 3345380 31.5% 4002707 37.7% 630936 5.9% 2642769 24.9% 10621792 2.7% Total milk 5978934 13.8% 25530003 58.7% 7827801 18.0% 4135895 9.5% 43472633 11.1% Fuelwood and charcoal 34155303 44.8% 29603040 38.9% 11383137 14.9% 1045313 1.4% 76186793 19.5% Roundwood 2435470 20.5% 4879431 41.1% 4157042 35.0% 400464 3.4% 11872407 3.0% Fish food 4131776 18.5% 15658752 69.9% 1766160 7.9% 832083 3.7% 22388771 5.7% Grand total by region 100400939 197859809 67137614 25547659 390946022 100.0% Regional share of grand total 25.7% 50.6% 17.2% 6.5% 100.0% Formula: VOD * (1 -((1 -Gini coefficient)* Income 2003)/9000) ~ 2 Table 3 : Allocation of research funds to CGIAR crops compared to modified values after quantitative analysis Commodity Commodity- Share Expenditure Share value, modified in 1996 mill US $ Rice 61795520 32.2% 21.8 24.3% Wheat 25957832 13.5% 9.7 10.8% Maize 19792253 10.3% 12.7 14.1% Barley 2334128 1.2% 3.06 3.4% sorghum 5396817 2.8% 3.6 4.0% Millet 4250653 2.2% 2.6 2.9% Cassava 10657380 5.5% 7.6 8.5% Potato 5122614 2.7% 3.9 4.3% Sweet potato and yam 5525160 2.9% 2.5 2.8% 00 Banana and plantain 8899994 4.6% 7.2 8.0% Beans 8263559 4.3% 4.7 5.2% Chickpea 4722034 2.5% 2.2 2.4% Pigeonpea 1967514 1.0% 1.4 1.6% Lentil** 1180508 0.6% 0.8 0.9% Broad (faba) bean 787006 0.4% Cowpea* 1574011 0.8% 1.0 1.1% Pulses, CGIAR crops * ★ ★ 18494632 9.6% 10.1 11.3% Soyabean* 10195349 5.3% 1.7 1.9% Groundnut 10692138 5.6% 3.4 3.8% Coconut 3043205 1.6% n.a. n.a. Grand total 192157675 100.0% 89.89 100.0% Note: * IITA allocation for soyabean and cowpea split according to ratio in PS-report 1992, page 161 ** CGIAR expenditure for lentils and faba bean can't be split ★ ★ ★ Pulses split according to regional values 1992/44 production data 69 CHAPTER 7 - SYSTEMWIDE PROGRAMMES AND THE ECOREGIONAL APPROACH 7.1 Introduction An important innovation in the plan for 1994-1998 was the recommendation that donors provide funds for programmes that transcend the interests of individual centres. This Chapter lists the Systemwide activities that are being developed using this new approach to the implementation of CGIAR priorities, and makes recommendations about their management by the System during the period 1998-2000. 7.2 Background The previous review of CGIAR priorities and strategies (TAC Secretariat, 1994) proceeded in three stages: the determination of (a) what to do in relative terms (priorities), (b) the appropriate strategy to follow in implementing those priorities (strategies), and (c) who should do the research and how it should be organized (structure). TAC’s proposals for strategies and structure were first discussed by the Group at MTM’92. In line with the vision presented in the expansion report (TAC Secretariat, 1992), TAC proposed a future CGIAR System undertaking two separate but complementary research activities: global, concentrating on strategic research on an agreed slate of commodities and subjects, and ecoregional, covering strategic and applied research on natural resource conservation and management, production systems and location-specific aspects of commodity improvement. While it was felt at MTM’92 that the Group had a long way to go before reaching finality on some of the issues, "the ecoregional concept was overwhelmingly endorsed, with both TAC and CGIAR Centres being encouraged to move from concepts to operations". (Extract from Summary of Proceedings and Decisions, CGIAR Mid-Term Meeting 1992, Istanbul, Turkey.) TAC’s recommendations for medium-term resource allocations 1994-1998 (Review and Approval of Centre Medium-Term Plans 1994-98, AGR/TACTAR/93/11) and its revision of Chapter 13 of the priorities and strategies document (TAC Revision of Chapter 13, AGR/TACTAR/93/18, Part II, Rev.l), were presented to the Group at ICW’93. In his covering letter to the Chair of the CGIAR, the TAC Chair noted that TAC had made two kinds of recommendations on funding in the CGIAR for the period 1994-1998: centre-specific funding and programme funding for particular CGIAR Systemwide initiatives. He noted also the innovative but experimental nature of such 70 programme funding, though TAC believed that it would provide an attractive mechanism to promote partnerships among centres, national programmes and other actors in the global agricultural research system. TAC currently believes it is necessary to take stock of Systemwide activities before adding to the existing set of initiatives and programmes. The Committee’s position in this regard is outlined in the final section of this Chapter (pp. 12-13). The justification for programme funding of Systemwide initiatives was further elaborated in the document on medium-term resource allocation. Under the heading "Systemwide Considerations", TAC recognized that the process of developing MTP proposals at centre level was limited in its ability to deal fully with concerns of particular importance at the System level transcending the centres’ own interests. There were also inconsistencies in the centres’ perceptions of the relative priority of inter-centre undertakings as a part of their normal activities. In that document, TAC went on to recommend funding by 1998 of seven ecoregional programmes and a cross-ecoregional programme on alternatives to slash-and- burn agriculture. It also proposed inter-centre programmes on conservation of genetic resources, on livestock research (to facilitate the establishment of new livestock research programmes of both a global and ecoregional nature and specifically to develop, with plant-oriented centres, integrated programmes on livestock feed and production systems), and on water management research (to study the efficiency with which increasingly scarce irrigation water is used for crop production along with resource degradation issues such as salinization and waterlogging. The total recommended was US$ 10 million out of US$ 270 million, or 3.7%. 7.2.1. Terminology The terms used above and in the next section were taken directly from the TAC documents that are quoted as references. However, the terminology has evolved considerably with time. At TAC 66 in March 1995, a note was prepared to help clarify use of the terms "Systemwide", "initiative" and "programme". This note ("TAC Note on Systemwide and Ecoregional Concepts," Report of the Sixty-Sixth Meeting of TAC, June 1995) drew heavily on, but did not follow in all respects, the conclusions from a meeting on "The Management of Systemwide Programmes and Ecoregional Initiatives" convened in December 1994 by Centre Directors. "Systemwide" was defined in the note as referring to inter-centre research or research-related activities, on a regional or global basis, or some combination thereof. It was recognized that such activities would generally involve organizations outside the CGIAR, for example, partnerships with NARS for the implementation of the ecoregional approach. "Initiative" was defined as the start-up or design phase of an activity, and "programme" as work that was under way. Although the question has not been addressed by TAC previously, Systemwide activities (SWAs), initiatives or programmes, seem to differ from ongoing inter-centre collaborations in three main aspects: 71 the entering into by centres of formal commitments for SWAs, in contrast to the more flexible collaborative arrangements made by individual scientists and programme leaders; the separate accountability to the Group required of SWAs; and the practice that has been adopted of showing the costs of SWAs in the CGIAR’s annual financing plan, whereas those of regular inter-centre collaboration are usually not identified separately. There has been some inconsistency in deciding what those figures for the costs of SWAs should cover. In some cases, funding has been recommended only for facilitation of the start-up phase. In other cases, it has also included seed money for new research and research-related activities, such as the setting up of databases. Guidelines need to be developed that clearly define the conditions for special support of such research and related activities in future SWAs. Such guidelines would best be premised on an assessment of experiences with SWAs to date. TAC’s proposed approach to this larger task is outlined in the penultimate section of this Chapter (pp. 10-12). In the interim, since TAC envisages that it would recommend for future approval only new initiatives for which there are strong arguments, this issue may be dealt with on a case by case basis. The terminology from TAC 66 is adopted in the later sections of this Chapter for discussing the future management of Systemwide programmes and the ecoregional approach. However, ambiguity remains in relation to the boundaries of Systemwide programmes (SWPs). At one extreme, only the facilitation and any new research components are included. At the other extreme, all research related to the SWA both inside and outside the System is included. It is, therefore, important when discussing SWPs to specify in each case whether the SWP refers only to facilitation and new research, all related CGIAR work, or all related work inside and outside the CGIAR. 7.3. An Overview of CGIAR Experience in the Initiation and Implementation of Systemwide Programmes and the Ecoregional Approach The adoption of an agreed agenda for the System’s research has been one of the most important changes that has occurred since TAC proposed programme funding in 1993. The financing plan for the 1996 CGIAR Research Agenda provided for six SWPs: genetic resources, rice/wheat, Latin American ecoregion, alternatives to slash-and-burn, mountain agriculture, and on-farm water husbandry in West Asia and North Africa. Provision was also made for financing the start-up of a global livestock programme during 1996. In addition, funds were endorsed for the design phases of a global water management programme; an initiative on soil, water and nutrient management; an inter­ centre initiative on coastal zone management; an ecoregional initiative on desert margins; initiatives on research indicators and property rights/collective action; an initiative on integrated pest management; and ecoregional approaches to the humid and sub-humid tropics/inland valleys of sub-Saharan Africa and to the humid/sub-humid tropics and subtropics of Asia. 72 Thus, of the seven ecoregional programmes proposed by TAC at ICW’93, in 1996 four were still entirely or significantly involved in their design phase, two (rice/wheat; an ecoregional approach to enhancing agricultural research in Latin America) were in the process of implementation as SWPs, and the last (an ecoregional programme for the east and central African highlands) had been subsumed in the cross- ecoregional SWP for sustainable mountain agricultural development. Of the other SWPs proposed by TAC in 1993, the cross-ecoregional programme on alternatives to slash-and- burn agriculture (ASB) was under way in 1996, as also were the inter-centre programme on genetic resources and the global livestock programme. However, the proposed global water management programme was still at the design stage, as already noted. Meanwhile, the following initiatives had been added: a cross-ecoregional SWP for sustainable mountain agricultural development (SMAD) subsuming the east and central African highlands initiative, an inter-centre initiative on coastal environments, and initiatives on research indicators, property rights and collective action, integrated pest management (IPM), and soil, water and nutrient management (SWMN). The last of these (SWNM) was the outcome of a succession of well-documented deliberations beginning with IBSRAM’s Position Paper on Soil, Water and Nutrient Management research - a New Agenda (the Greenland Report), and advancing through the Zschortau Plan and the Feldafing Consultation. Checking the list of eight topics proposed at MTM’94 by the CGIAR Task Force as follow-up to UNCED/Agenda 21, six were addressed specifically by SWPs and initiatives, the seventh (a global long-term forestry research network) was considered to be a central part of CIFOR’s core programme, while the eighth (global digital data sets for use in geographic information systems (GIS) was not yet covered though there was some use of GIS by ecoregional programmes, such as the one in Latin America. Although no systematic evaluation has been done, the establishment of SWAs seems to impose heavy transaction costs on centres and adds significantly to TAC’s workload. Moreover, review processes have still to be implemented that will expose SWAs to the same rigorous scrutiny that is applied to centre-based activities. The following notes summarize the status of the six SWPs that were endorsed for financing in 1996: Genetic Resources: The proposal for a Systemwide genetic resources programme emanated from the Stripe Study of Genetic Resources in the CGIAR and was accepted at MTM’94. The budget for 1996 was US$ 1.6 million, of which US$ 0.95 million was for collaborative research activities, US$ 0.19 million was for public awareness and an information network, and the remainder was for coordination and administration. Rice-Wheat: The rice/wheat consortium for the Indo-Gangetic Plain builds on the rice- wheat initiative established in 1990 with funding by ADB. It addresses the problem that the 12 million ha of rice-wheat cropping systems on the Plains, which were central to the Green Revolution there, are running into sustainability problems. The CGIAR budget for 1996 of US$ 1 million covered US$ 0.2 million to ICRISAT as convening centre and the remainder for research activities by the three centres involved (CIMMYT, IRRI, 73 ICRISAT). The financial commitment by the four regional NARS significantly exceeded that of the CGIAR. Latin America Ecoregion: Implementation of this SWP commenced during 1996, though some design work had still to be completed. The 1996-97 workplan (note the change of timebase) allocated most of the resources to implementation of the programme’s research and training activities; only 5-6% of the budget was for coordination. The 1996 Research Agenda budgeted US$ 5.7 million for this SWP, US$ 0.9 million to initiate the programme and US$ 4.8 million for centre activities by CIAT and CIMMYT, mainly CIAT (US$ 4 million). Alternatives to Slash-and-Burn: This consortium was formed in February 1992, after a year of preparation, and was probably the earliest of the SWPs in which the CGIAR has had a significant involvement. The plan was for a concerted attack on a global scale to accelerate the development of sustainable land uses to replace forms of slash-and-burn agriculture that cause deforestation and environmental degradation. The programme was initiated by a consortium of 16 member agencies, including four CGIAR Centres and nine NARS. Seed money was provided by UNDP and UNEP in 1992 and 1993, then GEF funded two phases of the programme from March 1994 to May 1996. At the time of writing, a further phase of GEF funding was under discussion. The CGIAR budget for 1996 provided US$ 6.8 million for this SWP, US$ 0.5 million to support coordination and US$ 6.3 million of centre-research activities, predominantly by ICRAF. Mountain Agriculture: This SWP is a combination of CIP’s work in the Consortium for the Sustainable Development of the Andean Ecoregion (CONDESAN), the East African highlands initiative, and the related longer-standing work of ICIMOD in the Himalayas. CONDESAN was effectively convened in 1994, following a workshop in 1992. The East Africa highlands initiative, convened by ICRAF, also includes other CGIAR Centres and ASARECA, the regional NARS organization. Global Livestock Programme: ILRI has developed an inter-centre initiative using an innovative process of competitive bidding for resources. From 1996, for a period of three years, three ecoregionally-based projects for the improvement of the production and utilization of livestock feeds will be supported in tropical Latin America, in WANA, and in the East African highlands, respectively. The budget for 1996 was US$ 2.8 million, with US$ 0.50 million for convening costs including a planning workshop, and the remainder as seed money for strategic and applied research. The expenditures budgeted for programmes and programme design in 1996 can be compared with those recommended by TAC in 1993. For the comparable categories, expenditure in 1996 is estimated to be US$ 12.1 million, which is 4.0% of the CGIAR total of US$ 299.2 million. This is a slight increase on the 3.7% proposed in 1993, and entirely in design costs. The three SWPs proposed in 1993 - genetic resources, livestock, and water management - were projected to cost US$ 6 million in 1998 (in 1992 dollars). In the Financing Plan for 1996, genetic resources was allocated US$ 1.6 million, livestock US$ 2.8 million (expected to rise to US$ 4.0 million in 1997) water management (still in the design phase) US$ 1 million, and on-farm water husbandry US$ 0.6 million. 74 The US$ 12.1 million quoted above is only for the costs of facilitation and seeding new research. Figures were provided in the 1996 Agenda for the costs of related centre research in four SWPs - rice/wheat, ASB, Latin American Ecoregional, and SMAD. The costs of related centre research (US$ 15.75 million) far exceeded those of facilitation and seed money (US$ 1.75 million). Another SWP, the one for Hillsides in Latin America, does not appear at all in the 1996 agreed research agenda budget paper, because no special funding was requested or recommended. The costs of facilitation were being borne entirely by Cl AT and CIMMYT from centre-specific sources. 7.4. Analysis and Recommendations 7.4.1. A Classification of the CGIAR’s Systemwide Activities The SWAs that have been undertaken up to and including the 1996 Research Agenda can be classified into two broad categories: those undertaken to implement the ecoregional approach; and those undertaken to strengthen more specific aspects of the System’s work. None of those in the first A CGIAR research activity may be group (Table 1) appear to address, in characterized as ecoregional if it meets the following the RAEZs in which they are general criteria, namely, if it: operating, all of the very (0 is research on the technical and human comprehensive range of objectives dimensions of problems in the sustainable described for the ecoregional improvement of productivity; approach (see box). Some of those SWAs in Table 1 are quite selective. (ii) addresses landscape units in the For instance the rice-wheat SWP agroecosystem of a priority agroecoregional addresses one farming system only, zone; albeit a very important one, in the (iii) has effective and clearly identifiable warm semi-arid tropics and partnership linkages with national research subtropics of Asia. Likewise, the systems and other research agencies of the alternatives to slash-and-bum SWP is region, and shows the complementarity of limited to the farming practices of function across the partners; (formerly) forested areas in the warm (iv) has close linkages with global strategic humid and sub-humid tropics of the commodity/subject matter research activities. world. Nevertheless, they all deal with the implementation of some part of the ecoregional approach. The (Gryseels & Kassam, 1994) initiative on coastal environments _________________________________________ identifies a different type of agroecological zone to those described in TAC 1994, one that is relevant to fisheries research, as well as to studies of other downstream effects of agriculture and forestry. 75 What distinguishes the second group (Table 2) is that they are much more targeted than the first and all are actually or potentially global. Their primary purpose is to fill gaps in the System’s work or to improve its technical quality and cost-effectiveness or both. The livestock SWP is somewhat different in that it arose out of a restructuring of livestock research in the System. Further examination of plans for the second group reveals that, with the possible exception of the genetic resources SWP, they will be implemented predominantly in a regional context. This raises the question, which TAC intends to pursue, as to whether sufficient emphasis is being placed in this type of SWA on the CGIAR’s global role, that is on strategic research to develop new generic understanding and methodologies that can be used internationally. The common feature of these diverse SWAs in Tables 1 and 2 is that they all appear to deal with the expediting of change in the System. Thus, adoption of the ecoregional approach represents a very different mode of operation for the CGIAR, and the SWAs in Table 2 are aimed at significant strengthening of research on important global issues (genetic resources, natural resource management) or of effectiveness in key subject matter areas (integrated pest management, property rights and collective action). The conclusion that SWAs are concerned with the management of change in the CGIAR has a very important implication. These special mechanisms that have been set up to expedite change do not need to continue indefinitely. As soon as a change has been effected, it becomes part of the mainstream operations of the System. This is reflected in TAC’s proposals for the future management of SWAs. 7.4.2. TAC’s Proposals for the Management of Systemwide Activities TAC proposes different forms of management for the two groups of SWAs during the period 1998-2000. In the case of implementing the ecoregional approach, there is an urgent need to monitor the progress of the ten SWAs listed in Table 1, and to document the lessons emerging from that experience. Before the end of this planning period, a good deal of experience will have been gained of the design phase (SWIs) of regional and cross-regional activities using the ecoregional approach, and for at least some programmes there should be clear indications of whether or not the approach is achieving its objectives in practice. To oversee the evaluation and documentation of SWAs implementing the ecoregional approach, TAC will set up a Standing Committee, which will draw on the special expertise of CGIAR Centres, NARS, and the donor community. One of its specific charges will be to report to the Group before the end of the 1998-2000 period on its interim assessment of the value of the ecoregional approach. This is necessary in order for the System to have early warning of any major deficiencies in the approach. The difficult history of efforts to organize large multidisciplinary, multi-institutional agricultural research programmes, for example in farming systems research which is simpler than the ecoregional approach, indicates a need 76 for a realistic and cautious attitude by the Group. A specific output of this exercise would be the development of guidelines to specify the criteria for recommending support to the initiative and programme phases of such activities. The Standing Committee would draw on the valuable work done by the CGIAR Task Forces on Ecoregional Approaches to Research (noting that true partnership between the CGIAR and NARS goes far beyond the ecoregional approach) and on Sustainable Agriculture. Other relevant experience should be taken into account, such as that from farming systems research (Meindertsma, 1995) and from the experience of a number of industrialized countries that have set up multi-institutional centres for research in fields such as engineering. The establishment of such a Standing Committee does not need to wait until 1998. The report of the consultancy currently being commissioned by the centre directors to document and analyse experiences with the development and implementation of ecoregional SWPs would be a very valuable input for that Committee. A different approach is proposed for the management of the second group of SWAs (Table 2) during the period 1998-2000. Because of their wide diversity, they each require separate treatment. TAC recommends that they be reviewed as part of the System’s normal review process. Each EPMR, and associated internally commissioned reviews, should examine the centre’s convening role, if it has one, and its components of SWAs. A separate decision will be needed on whether or not to carry out a stripe review or a strategic study of the research area in question. In some cases, the CGIAR may need to join with outside agencies in an even more comprehensive evaluation. Two key questions need to be answered in any review of SWAs from either group: Has the value added by making the activity Systemwide, rather than leaving it as a series of centre-based components, outweighed the additional transaction and management costs? and Has the SWA reached the point where its separate existence is no longer warranted? It may have done its job and no further special action is needed, or it may be possible to provide the collective action still needed through a centre, with appropriate incentives and accountabilities. Alternatively, the SWA may have failed, or be very likely to fail, and should be abandoned or substantially restructured. The reviews of SWAs should also give particular attention to the effectiveness of their operational modes. In the Study of Priorities and Strategies for Soil and Water Aspects of Natural Resources Management Research in the CGIAR, TAC has proposed seven criteria for evaluating the operating modes used in SWAs. These should be tested in practice. There is one area of CGIAR research that, in TAC’s view, requires further examination. It is the centre-based work in activity category 1.2, production systems 77 development and management, and category 2, protecting the environment, that is related to the SWI on soil, water and nutrient management. It is not easy in practice to distinguish between productivity-enhancing and resource-conserving research on natural resources such as soil and water. It needs a more detailed examination than was possible during TAC’s study on priorities and strategies for soil and water aspects of natural resources management research in the CGIAR. 7.4.3. Will New Systemwide Activities be Required During the Period 1998-2000? TAC recommends that, in the absence of strong new arguments, no new SWAs for the implementation of the ecoregional approach be added until (a) the experience to date has been gathered, assessed and documented properly, and (b) the TAC Standing Committee has been able to present to the Group its interim assessment of the value of the ecoregional approach. While the ten existing initiatives/programmes (Table 1) are not comprehensive, they cover sufficient objectives of the approach to allow a full interim evaluation. The situation with the second group of SWAs is different. The Group may wish to strengthen additional specific areas of work in 1998-2000, in order to remain flexible and responsive in the pursuit of its goals. For instance, research on postharvest processing, which has been one of the System’s objectives since the mid-1980s, may require strengthening in the light of the report of the current stripe review. However, because experience indicates that the initiation and implementation of SWAs adds significantly to the managerial workload of centres and their partners, TAC counsels against adding many more SWAs of any kind during the 1998-2000 period. It would be better to proceed slowly until the implementation of the ecoregional approach is under control and some of the SWAs in the second group have achieved their main purposes. Also this would enable the System to undertake a special priority-setting exercise for future SWAS. Many of the topics listed in Table 2 were first identified as priorities from outside the System. In future, the CGIAR with the assistance of TAC, needs to re-examine the agreed research agenda to see which areas require special action to raise them to the highest possible level of performance. The Group may still wish to see separate reports on areas of research covered by former SWAs, even when they appear in centre plans and budgets rather than in TAC documents. There will probably be a desire also to make sure that investment in research and research-related activities are SWPs and the ecoregional approach is properly measured in activity category 5 (some redefinition is likely to be needed), and that the Systemwide overhead costs of convening and facilitating SWAs are known and assessed. 78 Table 1: A List of Systemwide Initiatives and Programmes Undertaken by the CGIAR to Implement the Ecoregional Approach Regional Initiatives for: Sustainable natural resource management options to arrest land degradation in the desert margins of sub-Saharan Africa The warm humid and sub-humid tropics of sub-Saharan Africa The humid and sub-humid tropics of Asia On-farm water husbandry in West Africa and North Asia Central American and Andean hillsides Coastal environments Regional Programmes for: Sustainable rice-wheat based cropping systems in the Indo-Gangetic Plain Enhancing agricultural research effectiveness in Tropical America Cross-Regional Programmes for: Alternatives to slash-and-burn agriculture Sustainable mountain agricultural development 79 Table 2: A List of Systemwide Initiatives and Programmes Undertaken by the CGIAR to Strengthen Specific Areas of CGIAR Research Initiatives in: Water management Agricultural indicators Property rights and collective action Soil, water and nutrient management Integrated pest management Programmes in: Genetic resources Livestock research 80 CHAPTER 8 - RECOMMENDATIONS ON FUTURE PRIORITIES AND STRATEGIES 8.1. By Activity (Only section drafted yet is from Sir Ralph Riley and Dr. Lucia Vaccaro on sustainable production systems) The previous classification of some of the CGIAR research under "Protecting the Environment" served initially to emphasize the concern for sustainability and monitor the associated research. Now, however, the notion and objective of sustainability has become all pervasive in the production systems research of the CGIAR. Similarly, research concerned with protecting the environment must be involved with sustainable agricultural production. Consequently TAC considers that there is no longer any justification for maintaining the category "Protecting the Environment", since it seems to imply commitments to a kind of ecological research which is independent of agriculture and this conflicts with the purposes for which the CGIAR exists. It also leads to an underestimate of the true magnitude of the work that the CGIAR conducts on the sustainability aspects of production systems. These considerations have led TAC to propose to the Group that there should be research on sustainable production systems defined under four headings, namely crop-based, livestock-based, tree-based and aquatic biology-based systems. In drawing attention to these systems TAC nevertheless points out the prevalence of numerous mixed systems which have particular relevance to sustainability and in which multidisciplinary research is often necessary. The main categories of production systems categorized above can be disaggregated as follows: Crop-based systems research should be considered under the following categories (which are not exhaustive). The estimated areas occupied by each system is as indicated (area to be inserted). (14% of resource) a. crop-based rainfed systems b. mixed crop and livestock rainfed systems c. arable irrigated systems d. mixed arable crops and livestock irrigated systems Livestock-based farming systems research must take into account several distinctive farming systems: (12.2% of resource) a. Dry range-land, principally with cattle b. Peri-urban cattle, primarily for milk production c. Mixed sheep, goats and cattle, especially on desert and steppe fringes d. Village cattle, from which milk, meat and traction are all demanded. 81 Tree-based systems research with particular attention to the following: (3% of resource) a. Agroforestry which deploys crops within the forest garden, with concern for the uses of wood for fuel, building materials and farm uses such as stakes and fencing b. Forestry, when trees and tree products constitute the harvest Aquatic biological production systems with concentration on the following: (3% of resource) a. Aquaculture, sustainable fish farming b. Inland water, capture fishing and its sustainability c. Maritime ponds for farming marine fish, arthropods and molluscs d. Capture marine fisheries • Generalized components of production research There are several components of sustainable agricultural production which are more effectively addressed by research in a generic manner rather than in relation to a specific production system. These are listed below together with brief comments. Water - About 80% of the water used by the world’s people is deployed in agriculture. Clearly it is one of the most crucial of primary resources needed for agriculture. The management of water must be improved in its on-farm use, in the command area in irrigation systems and within major catchments. Moreover, TAC takes the view that the provision of potable domestic water is as important in alleviating poverty as is the pro0§fonfotfe&Mrixe) Soils - In any crop production system a thorough understanding from research is necessary concerning soil physics, chemistry and biology. Only from such knowledge can the sustainability of any system be determined. Combined generic research on water (2.2.1) and soils (2.2.2) will be necessary especially where erosion by water is important. Knowledge from soil physics will help to alleviate the effects of wind erosion. (3% of resource) Slopes - Much agriculture, in many kinds of cropping systems, is conducted on land at angles of slope which make soil erosion a serious risk. Soil preparation, cultivation and crop harvesting present serious problems. Generic research on agriculture on slopes may find wide-scale application. (1% of resource) Coastal research - About xxx million of people in developing countries live within xx miles of the sea shoreline and at less than xx feet above sea level. TAC considers that the problems that such people face can only be addressed in a specialized way. Research is consequently necessary on the interaction between agricultural production on the shore and hinterland and marine production from the adjacent sea into which the land water drains. This requires simultaneous multidisciplinary research on coastal production systems whether from agriculture or from fisheries. (0.5% of resource) 82 • Special multidisciplinary subjects related to sustainability There are some aspects of research which do not neatly fit into the study of single production systems but which are perhaps better studied in a generic manner so that principles, once established, can be applied widely wherever needed in any aspect of the farming industry. Some of these are listed below. Postharvest technology (PHT) - Any sustainable production systems must pay high regard to ensuring that the food produced is available for people and is not lost after harvest to microbial, insect, rodent or physical wastage. TAC believes that research on PHT should be increased. It will shortly receive the report of a Stripe Study on PHT which will make specific recommendations. In addition the recently received report of a Stripe Study on Roots and Tubers recommended that greater attention should be paid to PHT. Increased PHT research is necessary to ensure that producer/consumers gain the maximum benefit from their products and also to ensure that there is a market in the processing industries for producers who have surpluses. (0.1% of resource) Human health - Some forms of agriculture promote the development of organisms that cause human diseases (malaria, bilharzia, etc.). In addition the nutritional value of some products may not be well balanced, while still others may have toxic constituents (cassava, potato, etc.). TAC considers that there should be an opportunity for CGIAR research to address issues that are relevant to the health of the consumers and producers of its mandated products. (0.1% of resource) Integrated pest management - There are some aspects of IPM in relation to which research on general principles may be necessary before they can be applied to specific problems. This category will allow for such research which will be additional to that automatically developed for particular production systems. (0.1% of resource) ANNEX I ACTIVITIES AND THEIR DEFINITIONS Category 1 : Increasing Productivity 1.1 Germplasm enhancement and breeding - Pre-breeding - Crops - Livestock - Trees - Fish 1.2 Production systems development and management - Cropping systems - Livestock systems - Tree systems - Aquatic systems Category 2: Protecting the Environment Category 3: Saving Biodiversity Category 4: Improving Policies 4.1 Economic and social analysis 4.2 Policy analysis 4.3 Governance and management of public systems 4.4 Research on organization and management of institutes Category 5: Strengthening National Programmes 5.1 Training and conferences 5.2 Documentation, publication and dissemination of information 5.3 Institution building/advice to NARS 5.4 Networks Annex I - Page 2 Category 1: Increasing Productivity 1.1 Germplasm enhancement and breeding 1.1.1 Pre-breeding activities (including applications of techniques in molecular biology). 1.1.2 Crops: Crop germplasm enhancement and breeding: incorporating primitive and novel germplasm into useful material for breeding purposes, as well as germplasm evaluation and conventional breeding. 1.1.3 Livestock: Breed improvement. 1.1.4 Trees: Tree germplasm improvement: breeding of improved trees including multipurpose trees and shrubs. 1.1.5 Fish: Breed improvement. 1.2 Production systems development and management 1.2.1 Baseline studies of production systems (including constraint analysis and monitoring of sustainability)1: Characterization of the socioeconomic and agricultural aspects of farming systems including analysis of constraints to production and sustainability. 1.2.2 Development and management of farming systems, including socioeconomic evaluation of new technology or practices l: Design and testing of farming systems and components for more productive and sustainable systems. 1.2.3 Cropping systems (a) Plant nutrition - crop and pasture nutrient requirements, the availability, cycling and uptake of nutrients (including the role of mycorrhiza and other symbionts), tillage and fertilizer management. (b) Plant protection and pest management (diseases, insect pests and weeds) - the economic control of diseases, insect pests and weeds of crop, pasture and tree species including systems for integrated pest management. (c) Seed production - increase of seed of elite materials, its certification and release. (d) Postharvest technology - the development of ways of treating commodities to reduce losses in the storage and marketing system and improve the quality and value of foods through processing. These are generic activities common to the crop, livestock, tree and fish production sectors. Annex I - Page 3 1.2.4 Livestock systems (a) Livestock nutrition including studies on feeds, pastures and fodder - assessment of the nutritional status of livestock in relation to the availability of feed resources. (b) Animal health - epidemiology, biology, immunology and genetics of animal pests. (c) Livestock reproduction - reproductive biology of livestock and the reduction of reproductive wastage from reproductive diseases and other causes. 1.2.5 Tree systems (a) Silviculture and tree production - the management of trees in agroforestry, plantation and natural forest systems to enhance and sustain productivity. (b) Tree nutrition - tree nutrient requirements, the availability, cycling and uptake of nutrients (including the role of mycorrhiya and other symbionts), and fertilizer management. (c) Tree protection (diseases, insect pests and weeds) - the economic control of disease, insect pests and weeds of tree species including systems for integrated pest management. 1.2.6 Aquatic systems (a) Fish reproduction - reproductive biology of fish and the reduction of reproductive wastage from reproductive diseases and other causes. (b) Fish nutrition including studies on feeds - assessment of the nutritional status of fish in relation to the availability of feed resources. Category 2: Protecting the Environment 2.1 Ecosystems analysis, ecological characterization and environmental concerns - the characterization, classification, mapping and analysis of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, especially in relation to the functioning and use of ecosystems including human use patterns and pressures, climate, hydrology, soil and landform. 2.2 Biology and ecology of useful organisms and pests - study of the distribution, production and dynamics of economically important plants, animals and fish and of the weeds, insect pests and diseases which affect them, and vectors related to hazards to human health. Annex I - Page 4 2.3 Land resources conservation and management - research on the maintenance or improvement of the potential productivity of the land resource base and its components especially the edaphic, climatic, hydrological and biological resources. (a) Soil and landform - research on monitoring, maintaining or improving the physical and biological characteristics as well as chemical fertility of soils. (b) Water - research on the conservation and management of rainfall and/or irrigation water. (c) Plants and animals - research on the factors affecting the productivity and conservation of natural vegetation including forests and rangelands, and research to monitor natural populations of wildlife. 2.4 Aquatic resources conservation and management - research on the maintenance or improvement of the potential productivity of the aquatic resource base, including research on the population dynamics of aquatic resources and their exploitation. 2.5 Processes and mechanisms of sustainable resource systems. 2.6 Modelling of landscape and watershed level phenomena. Category 3: Saving Biodiversity 3.1 Germplasm collection, conservation, characterization and evaluation - collection and maintenance of in vitro (and in situ) germplasm collections and the distribution, characterization and documentation of collections. Category 4: Socioeconomic, Public Policy and Public Management Research 4.1 Economic and social analysis (a) Human nutrition - study of the relationship between such factors as nutritional composition of commodities, food quality, income, price, socioeconomic characteristics and the nutritional status of people. (b) Gender, human health hazards and sociocultural organization - analysis of gender, health and sociocultural organization in agricultural communities. (c) Microeconomic and social analysis - research to determine the economic and social effects and implications of technologies or policies as they affect people, by examining farm, household or village data. Annex I - Page 5 (d) Market and trade analysis - research to determine the market level economic conditions that may result from various technologies, institutions or policies and to analyze the impact of trade and macroeconomic policy on markets. (e) Impact assessment and priority setting - research to assess the impact of research including cost/benefit analysis and to improve the analytical basis on which research priorities are set. 4.2 Policy analysis - Research to determine the desirability of alternative policies from the viewpoint of society, taking into consideration productivity, equity, sustainability, and environmental concerns. 4.3 Governance and management of public systems (including irrigation systems) - Analysis of organizations for the management of public systems (including irrigation systems) and the development of innovations to improve their performance. 4.4 Research on organization and management of institutes - analysis of research and research management processes aimed at the development/enhancement of approaches, methodologies and tools for conducting these processes. The procedures generated relate to biological/technological research, i.e. technology generation efforts and organization and management of NARS. Category 5: Strengthening National Programmes 5.1 Training and conferences (a) Training - human resource enhancement including specialized training courses, postgraduate research, study tours, etc. (b) Conferences and seminars - to foster the build-up of NARS capacities and the effective functioning of international research collaboration; fora for discussion of scientific cooperation among the partners in the global system (IARCs, NARS, specialized institutions); stimulating horizontal transfer of information and technology among national research systems. 5.2 Documentation, publication and dissemination of information - Efforts to use systematically the global knowledge base in areas and disciplines of relevance to centres’ research programmes and to make available to NARS relevant information on progress and output of centres’ research programmes, through newsletters, publications, electronic media, and abstracting services. Annex I - Page 6 5.3 Institution building/advice to NARS - assisting NARS through the provision of advice and counsel. This covers a range of subjects/topics and includes the biological sciences (conduct of research) and the organization and management field (organization and management of NARS). Primary objective: build-up of NARS capacities (institution building). 5.4 Networks - Organizing, coordinating, managing or backstopping of collaborative research efforts among various partners in the global research systems with the primary objective of building up national capacities. This category does not include activities of research networks. ANNEX H METHODOLOGY 1. Baseline figures For agriculture, the reference was data from the FAO AT 2010 study. This was available at country level as in the previous data base with the following exceptions to the TAC 1992 work: pulses were given by AT 2010 as an overall aggregate value. Therefore, we calculated from the FAO Production Yearbook a regional average share by excluding peas from the pulses production values, for the year 1994. The importance of peas is rather low, from about 9% of pulses total for Asia to only 2% for LAC and WANA. Furthermore, to divide pulses into the six CGIAR pulse commodities the regional importance of each measured in 1992/94 value terms was used to split the commodity group. oilcrops were given in the AT 2010 study as global demand in 2010 expressed in oil-equivalents. A series of ratios had to be used to approximate country demand 2010 from production in 1992/94. (However, this procedure can lead to zero demand 2010 where no production occurred in 1992/94, as the case for some oilcrops for WANA, ie coconut, which may not be realistic.) sweet potato and yam were given as one item by the FAO AT 2010 study. As for pulses, the relationships of regional values in 1992/94 were used for splitting it to the single commodities. For forestry, the data was taken from the FAO Forestry paper "Statistics today for tomorrow". Roundwood was taken only for the artisanal component, i.e. at 40% of demand, as done for this commodity for the analysis presented at TAC 68.. For fisheries, we used the data contained in Ms Lena Westlund’s report on "Apparent historical consumption and future demand for fish and fishery products - Exploratory calculations". The figures in the analysis were given aggregated to regional and sub-regional level. As in the previous work presented at TAC 68, the data is modified to represent the average amount of fish food which can be supplied by artisanal fishermen. According to the availability as regional figures, for the use in the analysis average, by population weighted, regional weights had to be calculated. These average weighted "poverty weights" (see below) found are 0.858 for SSA, 0.434 for Asia, 0.472 for LAC, and 0.423 for WANA. (In the analysis focusing on the poorest countries, only the fish demand from China could be excluded from the regional demand figures. Therefore, one can assume that the results for fish food are a bit too high.) Annex II - Page 2 2. Modification process The expected demand 2010 was valued with the 1989/91 commodities’ international price adjusted for purchasing power parity of the countries (Prasada Rao/Zarqa/FAO, unpublished) which were used already for TAC 68. This value of demand (VOD) was further weighted with new modifiers taking into account issues of countries’ welfare/poverty depth, rural/urban population distribution and gender issues in the countries of the analysis. The most important part of the modifiers is represented by a formula which takes into account the distribution of future income and attaches thereto a weight in function of the gap of this welfare indicator to a certain threshold. The data necessary to derive country level value are: 1991 capita PPP income in the developing countries, taken from the UNDP human development report for 1994 country information on economic growth (World Bank data in WB Atlas 1996 or WB Trends in Developing Economies, 1994), the best figure between average 1985/94 performance (WB Atlas) or the years 1991 to 1994 (WB Trends) was used) overall economic growth was adjusted (subtraction) for population growth estimates (UNDP human development report estimates for period 1992-2000) Gini coefficients for income distribution within the countries. (This unpublished data was provided by the TAC Chair and allowed the assessment of approximately 50 out of 120 countries for this item, but which have about 85% of the total population of the countries in our database. For the countries with no Gini coefficients, we used weighted regional values. The figures found are 40% for SSA; 35.4% for Asia; 55.7% for LAC; and 35.8% for WANA.) the UNDP human development report provided the information on percentages population distribution (rural/urban). FAO-Agrostat data is used for the numbers of males and females economically active in agriculture. The steps applied with the above data to derive country weights are: 1. PPP incomes/caput in 2003 were estimated. The best figure for economic growth from the two WB sources was taken, and the population growth was deducted therefrom. Starting default values were set at +0.5%. The formula used is: future value = present value (1+rate)term(12years) These 2003 PPP estimates were then assessed as welfare indicators and converted into weights after transforming into a scale. Following formulae were suggested by Mr Martin Ravallion/World Bank (e-mail 5 March 1996) to TAC and used in the study: 2. Country welfare indicator W as influenced by the income distribution (negatively) by the Gini coefficients and the PPP income/caput (positively) at Annex II - Page 3 country level. An even and smooth distribution of income with Gini coefficient values close to 1 would lead to negligible differences between welfare indicators and PPP income. Basically, the following formula will reduce the values of the PPP incomes adjusted for distribution of wealth: W = (1 - GINI COEFFICIENT) * PPP INCOME 3. Therefrom, Mr Ravallion suggested to derive weights W* constructed to be highest for the lower values of the welfare indicator W. After a certain value Z, these should be zero. Mr Ravallion suggested that both the Z-values and the alpha exponent should be tested as the weight W* is depending on the values (see below). The applied is W* = (1 - W/Z) aIpha Three sets of weights W* were obtained for the analysis by using three combination of Z (upper PPP threshold) and alpha values (exponent): Z value 6000 or 9000 PPP $, alpha value a 2 Z value chosen as 6000 $, alpha value as 2 or 3. Two further sets of country weights were obtained for W* values with z set as 6000 and alpha as 2 by incorporating into the modifier weights already known since the TAC January 1996 meeting in Rome: Inclusion of producers’ gender as additional factor in the modifier with the weights given as 1 (full) for the share of female and 0.8 (reduced) for the share of male agricultural producers. The formula is Weight = W* times (F 4- 0.8 M), and Adding the population distribution figures to the modifier, giving the share rural population full weight and the share of urban population a reduced weight. Weight = W* times (R + 0.8 U). Accordingly, the analysis used five modifiers (weights) and leads to six results for the final comparison when including the value of future demand of CG commodities expressed in present economic terms. It should be noted that for the analysis of the fisheries sector (see above, baseline figures) five sets of average, by population weighted, regional weights were calculated as depending upon the five modifiers used. The utilization of different Z values leads to the exclusion of countries which obtain a distribution adjusted PPP income in 2003 above that value. These are for Z set a 9000 PPP $ the countries Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan in Asia; and Cyprus, Qatar and United Arab Emirate for WANA; and Annex II - Page 4 Z set as 6000 PPP $ additionally the countries of Mauritius in SSAfrica; China, Malaysia and Thailand in Asia; Chile in the region LAC; and for WANA, the countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia drop out additionally. Obviously, the exclusion of large countries as China after setting the z-value low to 6000 PPP $ are influencing the composition of the data set and the results of the quantitative analysis. Annex II - Page 5 Table: Prices used in calculations Commodity International Price Proportion Price, $/mt US$/mt int’l price to period 1989/91 (TAC, 1992) TAC, 1992 (1/2) 1 2 3 Rice 292 284 103% Wheat 144 144 100% Maize 124 104 120% Barley 114 128 89% Sorghum 124 93 133% Millet 158 132 119% Cassava 68 66 103% Potato 110 180 61% Sweet potato 76 82 93% Yams 137 105 130% Banana 154 150 103% Plantain 96 144 67% Chickpea 785 339 232% Cowpea 266 591 45% Pigeonpea 723 393 184% Broad bean 229 591 39% Lentil 547 489 112% Beans 539 591 91% Pulses* 555 Soybean 234 265 88% Groundnut 491 585 84% Coconut 106 143 74% Tomato, fresh 192 195 99% Onion, dry 202 235 86% Cabbage 100 136 74% Orange 176 512 34% Lemon&lime 274 774 35% Pineapple 151 293 51% Grape 340 809 42% Apple 307 378 81% Sugar 141 218 64% Coffee 959 2182 44% Tea 1410 1862 76% Cocoa 663 1670 40% Tobacco 1498 2522 59% Rubber 500 1050 48% Cotton (lint) 1351 1244 109% Cotton (seed) 175 149 117% Seed cotton 554 * 504* 110% Jute 270 329 82% Hemp 559 291 192% Sisal 222 419 53% Palm oil 165 365 45% Beef&Buffalo meat 2226* 1458 153% Sheep&Goat meat 2099* 1652 127% Pigmeat 1342 1026 131% Poultry meat 1267* 727 174% Milk, total 268* 306 88% Eggs, hen 1005 840 120% Inland catch 785** 763 103% Inland culture 1517** 1474 103% Marine catch 658 ** 639 103% Marine culture 1606** 1561 103% Fish food* 938 Charcoal 182** 182 100% Fuelwood 55 ** 41 134% Industrial roundwood 113** 131 86% Note: * composite prices, ** imputed prices ______ Pulses and fish food weighted average price ANNEX m 1. CROPS 1.1. Background Crops and their products provide about 52% of the total value of production of agriculture, forestry and fisheries in developing countries. In Asia this share amounts to 59%, in sub-Saharan Africa 41%, in Latin America and the Caribbean 42% and in West Asia-North Africa about 51%. Research to improve the productivity of the most important food crops in developing countries has been the central theme of the CGIAR since its inception. The CGIAR has a multidisciplinary research approach to increasing crop productivity. The research has four main objectives: to increase yield potential; to narrow gaps between potential and actual yields; to improve yield stability; and maintenance research to prevent the erosion of attained yield levels. Crop productivity research in the CGIAR consists of two sets of activities: germplasm enhancement and breeding, and cropping systems research. These two sets of activities fall into one of the five major "undertakings" called "increasing productivity". Germplasm enhancement and breeding include: pre-breeding activities; the incorporation of primitive and novel germplasm into useful material for breeding purposes; and germplasm evaluation and conventional breeding. Cropping systems include: plant nutrition; plant protection and pest management; seed production; and postharvest technology. The pay off to crop productivity research in the CGIAR has been large, and the impact of research on rice and wheat has been particularly impressive (Anderson et al, 1988). Significant farm-level impact has also been achieved through research on maize, millet (particularly in India), groundnut (in India), cassava and phaseolus beans. Although encouraging progress in the development of technology for the other crops has been achieved, evidence of impact is still largely anecdotal. Progress has been particularly slow for grain legumes. This section discusses important factors for assigning CGIAR priorities to particular crops. For each crop under consideration, the importance of the commodity in the diet and the production system, research opportunities and history, the strategic breeding goals, and the role of the CGIAR hitherto are highlighted. Implications with respect to the future priority ranking of each commodity are discussed in Chapter 6. TAC acknowledges the importance of mixed cropping systems and the difficulty of allocating priorities to the crops involved, which are often of minor importance globally but can play a significant role in particular farming systems. In addition, for many crops, particularly roots and tubers, food legumes and vegetables, the database is weak. Estimates on their value of production and yield levels are often crude guesses, and in a quantitative analysis these crops may, therefore, get a lower priority ranking than they merit. Annex III - Page 2 1.2. Cereals 1.2.1. Rice Globally, rice is the most important crop in terms of its contribution to diet and value of production. Of the 146 million ha harvested globally in 1994, about 142 million ha were in developing countries, producing 506 million tonnes of paddy. Asia is the primary producer, accounting for 93% of production in developing countries. Latin America and the Caribbean accounts for 4%, West Asia-North Africa for 2%, and sub-Saharan Africa for 1%. Rice provides between 35% and 80% of the calories consumed by 3.3 billion people in Asia, and 8% of food energy for 1 billion people in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. Only about 4% of world rice production is traded on the international market; most countries rely almost entirely on domestic production to meet their demand. A striking exception to this is in sub-Saharan Africa where 35% of total rice consumption is derived from imports. Price formation on the international market is heavily influenced by subsidies and other protective measures. In West Africa and Latin America, rice is a relatively new staple in the diet. Per caput consumption in West Africa has doubled over the past two decades, and continues to grow by 2% annually, while in Latin America it has increased by about 20%. Rice production increased in varying degrees in all developing regions by an average of 2.7% annually during the 1968-80 period, but since then, the growth has decelerated to 1.5% per year. West Africa saw the highest rates of increase during the 1980s at 8.5% annually. About three-quarters of the increase can be attributed to higher yield levels in irrigated rice in Asia, attained through the widespread adoption of high- yielding varieties, fertilizer and irrigation. Production increases in Latin America and the Caribbean resulted largely from the spread of new varieties. However, in sub-Saharan Africa and West Asia-North Africa they resulted from an increase in the area cultivated rather than from increases in yields. In West Africa, although yields grew at 1.9% per annum during the 1980s, area increases still represented fully 75% of the overall production growth. Over the last 25 years, the rice areas in Asia showed a mean yield increase of 62% (from 2.26 to 3.73 t/ha). However, yields vary widely between countries in all developing regions. For example, in Asia, the average yield of rice in India, which has one-third of the region’s rice area, is only 2.82 t/ha, whereas it is 5.87 t/ha in China, which also has about one fourth of the region’s rice area. Significant advances in rice production have been made over the past two decades in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). About 220 new rice varieties were released for flooded environments, with 40% coming from crosses made at CIAT, 13% at IRRI and almost all of the rest has parentage form IARCs’ progenitors. Modem semidwarf rice varieties now account for more than 90% of all flooded rice production, itself representing 70% of total rice production in the region. Average yields in flooded areas have risen from 3.0 tons per hectare in the mid 1960s to 4.5 t/ha in 1990; and total rice production doubled between 1967 and 1990, making the region largely self-sufficient in rice. With rice prices falling by 40% in real terms over the period, consumers have Annex III - Page 3 benefited greatly. Rice is well established as a "wage good", and the crop has become the most important source of calories and proteins for that 20% of the region’s population with the lowest incomes. Rice is particularly important from the standpoints of growth and equity. Rice is preferred by the poor because it is cheap, nutritious, appealing, easy to prepare, and easy to store and transport. If past trends in demand continue, world rice production will need to increase by 21% by 2005, and by 65% by 2025 (1.7% annually). While Asia has achieved marginal self-sufficiency in rice for the present, further increases through higher yields or increased cropping intensity will be necessary to keep pace with demand. The leading rice-growing countries in Asia will need to increase their rice production by 100% by 2025 (2.3% annually). These escalating demand levels will require a concerted research effort to continue the development of improved technologies for production. To date, the pay off from CGIAR investments in rice research has been large. The internal rate of return from international rice research over the last 30 years can reach at least 80%, and during this period the new rice varieties allowed for an increase in rice production which was sufficient to feed about 600 million more people (IRRI, 1991). The impact of new technology has so far been confined primarily to irrigated areas - which make up some 53% of the world’s harvested rice area - and to favourable rainfed areas. Further research must be conducted for these areas to protect and build on what has already been achieved. Recent work at IRRI has given strong indications that the high yield levels obtained on farms with favourable management conditions are not sustainable due to a variety of factors such as poor quality of irrigation water, the lack of micronutrients, and the vulnerability of improved varieties to pests and diseases. In order to meet the problem of yield erosion, further efforts in maintenance research, as well as in lifting the yield ceiling, will be required. However, if rising demands are to be met, other rice growing systems will also have to receive attention. These include: shallow rainfed rice, which accounts for almost 25 % of the harvested area in Asia; deep-water and floating rice, which accounts for about 13% of the harvested area in Asia; and dryland or upland rice, which accounts for 75 % of the harvested area in Latin America and the Caribbean and 50% of that in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1983, 25% of total CGIAR allocations were spent on rice. In 1985, TAC recommended that the overall effort forbice be reduced and that the existing shift in research emphasis away from applied research on irrigated systems be reinforced. TAC considered that the CGIAR System’s future efforts on rice should concentrate more on non-irrigated systems, and in basic research on irrigated rice in collaboration with specialized institutions. These recommendations reflected the successes that had already been achieved in rice research, especially in the more favourable environments. Today, more than two- thirds of the rice lands of developing countries are planted with high-yielding modem varieties. Furthermore, the CGIAR System’s collaboration in rice research has significantly strengthened many national research programmes, allowing them to assume an increasingly large share of the responsibility for research. This is particularly true of Annex III - Page 4 some of the largest rice producing countries, e.g. India, Thailand, the Philippines, Bangladesh, China and Korea. Non-irrigated wetland and dryland rice systems comprise almost half the global area under rice production. The production constraints of these systems are more complex than those of irrigated rice because of the lack of control in water management and the more limited knowledge base for research. In Latin America and the Caribbean and in sub-Saharan Africa, CGIAR emphasis has shifted to dryland and rainfed lowland rice research. The 1986 recommendation for the movement towards basic research and to target more difficult environments was made in the belief that the exploitation of genetic diversity was fundamental to achieving higher and more stable yields, resistance to major pests and disease, and better drought tolerance. For both irrigated and non-irrigated rice, it will be necessary to develop new and better breeding techniques, to increase knowledge of the factors determining resistance and tolerance, to raise yield potential by using biotechnology and to exploit genes from species closely related to O. Saliva. The CGIAR System should therefore emphasize strategic research. In so doing it will catalyze and support basic research in other institutes, and play an active role in encouraging the application of new techniques to the rice production problems of developing countries. In considering future priorities for rice research, TAC should also consider the substantial impact obtained from CGIAR efforts in rice research, in Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and West Africa. In Latin America, a Latin American Irrigated Rice Fund, mainly supported by the private sector and IARCs, has been created, that should ensure continuity in rice research activities at the regional level. This process clearly shows that Latin American rice producers are aware of the value and innovation of new technologies. In 1992, TAC recommended a continuation of current levels of CG investment in rice research, but with a shift in focus towards more strategic germplasm research necessary to lift the yield ceiling of the crop, and to sustain current yield levels. The future of rice research holds exciting challenges and opportunities. Rice research aims at making significant contributions to environmental goals such as the protection of tropical forests and reduction in agrochemical use, as well as in feeding people through devoting its efforts to the development of improved rice gene pools and integrated crop management. 1.2.2. Wheat After rice, wheat is the single most important food source in the developing world, contributing more calories to diets than all other cereals combined. It is higher in protein content than almost all other cereals. Within wheat, a distinction can be made between durum and bread wheats, and between bread wheats, between winter, facultative and spring wheats. Durum wheat accounts for 5 % of developing country wheat production, and 70% of it is grown in West Asia-North Africa. Annex III - Page 5 In 1992/94, developing countries accounted for 45% of world wheat production (551 million t) and 46% of world wheat area (219 million ha). Half the total increase in production in the 1970s and 70% in the 1980s came from the developing world. CIMMYT varieties now cover at least 50 million hectares and account for 70% of improved varieties. In 1992/94, Asia accounted for 71% of the developing world’s production, West Asia-North Africa for 20%, Latin America and the Caribbean for 7% and sub-Saharan Africa for 7%. In the West Asia-North Africa region, wheat is the most important food crop in terms of its calorie contribution. Wheat production in the developing regions as a whole increased by 5 % annually in the 1970s and by 4.3% in the 1980s. The five largest producers - China, India, Turkey, Pakistan and Argentina - raised production at an average annual rate of 5.4% in the 1970s and 4.3% in the 1980s, largely through yield increases. In the remaining developing countries, the growth rate was only 1.5% during the 1970s, but increased to 3 % during the 1980s. Trends in yield levels over the past two decades have varied considerably. China experienced an increase of 75% in the 1970s and 49% in the 1980s; India 25% in the 1970s and 45% in the 1980s; West Asia-North Africa 35% in the 1970s and 16% in the 1980s, sub-Saharan Africa 55% in the 1970s and 38% in the 1980s; Latin America and the Caribbean 37% in the 1980s. Improved varieties and associated technologies have had a major impact on wheat production in the developing world, causing an absolute yield increase from 1.64 t/ha to 2.23 t/ha in the past decade. Today, some 60% of the wheat lands in developing regions are sown with modem varieties. Wheat imports by developing countries doubled in the 1970s and further increased substantially in the 1980s. Many countries financed their purchases of wheat with limited foreign exchange, indicating the high priority assigned to wheat as a food. Even the countries that produce wheat have become more reliant on imports during the past two decades. Among countries consuming 100,000 tonnes or more annually, per caput wheat imports declined only in Turkey, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe. Growth rates in consumption are closely linked to rising incomes and urbanization. The correlation with rising incomes reflects not only greater overall food consumption, but also a switch to wheat in preference to other starchy staples, and the use of wheat as animal feed. In West Asia-North Africa, where wheat originated, consumption is high at all income levels and in both rural and urban areas. Other factors contributing to increased wheat consumption are the lagging production of many other staple foods; and food aid and pricing policies, which lower wheat prices and create a bias in favour of wheat products. For the developing regions as a whole, the annual demand for wheat is projected to grow at 3 % over the coming decade. Demand will rise particularly rapidly in sub- Saharan Africa, at 5.1% per annum, and at 2.9% in other regions. Expansion in wheat area has declined from 1.7% per year in the 1950s to under 1% currently, and is projected at 0.8% in the future. Consequently, wheat yields will need to rise by 2.2% each year to meet the projected demand growth of 3%. Semidwarf wheat varieties are already sown in most of the wheat area and fertilizer applications are relatively high on much of the irrigated land. However, in most developing countries Annex III - Page 6 absolute yields are still comparatively low, less than half the average yield in Europe. Even the current yield levels of the five largest producers cannot be considered high: China, 3.45 t/ha; India, 2.36 t/ha; Turkey, 1.99 t/ha; Pakistan, 1.94 t/ha; and Argentina, 2.14 t/ha. Diseases, insect pests and environmental stresses, especially drought, are important constraints but they are not the only ones: crop and water management, socioeconomic factors and the policy environment are equally important for achieving further sustainable increases in yield. The impact of CGIAR investments in wheat research has been impressive. Varieties to which CIMMYT has contributed, now cover about 47 million ha, and between 50% and 70% of improved wheat varieties released during the last 30 years have been based on crosses made by CIMMYT. In the West Asia-North Africa region, where most of the wheat is rainfed, winter rainfall is low and erratic and crop yields are limited by biological and environmental constraints as well as by management and socioeconomic factors. Except in Turkey, research in this region has not addressed the needs of high elevation areas, which require winter or facultative wheat varieties with tolerance to a range of environmental stresses, including cold. In the lowland areas of the West Asia-North Africa region, tolerance to heat and salinity, as well as to cold, are required. For the lowland irrigated areas of the semi-arid tropics and subtropics with summer rainfall, where the crop is grown during the cool season, varieties with better tolerance to relatively high temperatures are required. Aluminium toxicity is a constraint to bread wheat production in large areas of highly leached acidic soils in the subhumid and humid subtropical areas of southeast China. For the higher elevation areas of the cool tropics and subtropics with summer rainfall, spring wheat varieties with better adaptation to biotic and abiotic stresses are required. According to the ACIAR analysis, the highest pay off from future investments in wheat research can be obtained in the warm and seasonally dry subtropics with summer rainfall, and in the cool subtropics. In its 1986 assessment of priorities, TAC considered the importance of wheat as a food crop and the increasing reliance of developing countries on wheat imports. It also considered the strong research programmes on wheat in developed countries and the growing strength of national programmes in Latin America, Turkey, India and China, as evidenced by the remarkable yield and production increases achieved in those countries during the 1970s and 1980s. The well organized international wheat trade, the export capacity of some developing countries, and the increasing demand for wheat in countries with unfavourable environments for its production make the concept of self-sufficiency inappropriate for many areas. In 1986 TAC considered that the trend of the centres concerned to transfer a number of research functions to national systems while continuing to provide them with technical support was reasonable and should be accelerated. This led to the recommendation that the System’s overall efforts in wheat research should be gradually reduced by 10% over the following five years. TAC also recommended that research should concentrate on increasing production on marginal lands, including those in tropical areas. Annex III - Page 7 The pay off from investment in wheat research has been very high, but further efforts are required to sustain the increased yield levels achieved. In 1992, TAC recommended a continuation of CG efforts at current levels, but noted that in the long term the priority of wheat was likely to decline given the growing importance of alternative sources of supply. 1.2.3. Maize Among the food crops, maize ranks third after rice and wheat both in terms of calorie contribution and in terms of value of production. For the 1992 to 1994 three-year average, developing countries produced an estimated 43 % of world production (522 million t) from about 84 million ha (66% of total maize area). The crop is grown in all the developing regions. Of the total for all regions, China alone accounts for 44%, Latin America and the Caribbean for 30%, the rest of Asia for 14%, sub-Saharan Africa for 8%, and West Asia-North Africa for 47%. Where grown for human food, maize is an important source of calories for the poor. The crop is widely grown in mixed cropping systems by subsistence farmers. For all developing countries, annual per caput human consumption is only 20 kg, but in Latin America and the Caribbean (the homeland of maize) it is 80 kg, and in sub-Saharan Africa 60 kg; in some countries of both regions, per caput human consumption is as high as 100 kg per annum. Maize provides about one-third of the mean calorie intake in these two regions, but little more than 5 % in the other regions. Maize stover is an important byproduct in many countries. The use of maize for livestock feed has become increasingly important and now accounts for about 54% of consumption in developing countries. In the subtropical areas of South America, it is the main use, and it is important for this purpose in the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean, and in the West Asia-North Africa region. In the 1970s and the 1980s, the use of maize as feed in developing countries grew by 5.3% per annum, and in Asia and West Asia-North Africa it grew at three times the rate for direct human consumption. It grew at twice the rate for food use in sub-Saharan Africa, but from a low base, so that use of maize for feed is still relatively low in that region. During the current decade, demand for food maize for the developing regions as a whole is expected to grow at 1.6% per year, for feed maize at 4.9%, and for food and feed maize combined at 3.5%. Total regional demand is projected to grow at 3.1% for sub-Saharan Africa, 3% for the West Asia-North Africa region, 3.8% for Asia and 3.3% for Latin America and the Caribbean. During the past decade, developing countries achieved a 22% increase in yields. However, this average figure masks China’s considerable gain of 50% (associated largely with the adoption of improved varieties) at one end of the scale, and a decline of almost 15 % in West Africa at the other. The variation in yields per ha is equally dramatic: these range from more than 3 t in subtropical South America and China, through just under 2 in West Asia-North Africa, to about 1.6 in Central and tropical South America, about 1.5 in South and South-East Asia, about 1.1 in East and Southern Africa and India, Annex III - Page 8 and less than 1 in the other sub-Saharan African regions. Sub-Saharan Africa achieved some increase in production during the 1970s, but this was the result of an increase in the area harvested. During the 1980s, yield gains were 16% (from 1.96 to 2.28 t/ha) for the developing regions as a whole, 12% for sub-Saharan Africa, 7% for Latin America and the Caribbean, 38% for West Asia-North Africa and 27% for Asia. In the long term, the global pattern of use will continue to change with rising incomes and urbanization. Although consumers in developing countries will tend to spend less on maize as they switch to other foods, maize consumption will increase because of its increasing use as feed. In the low-income countries, particularly in sub- Saharan Africa, this scenario is likely to develop more slowly, and in the medium term the problem will be one of increasing demand for maize for human consumption against a background of declining per caput production. For example, in East and Southern Africa, where maize is the staple food and is grown on about 30% of the cultivated crop area, production will need to double by the year 2000 if the region is not to face massive bills for food imports. Increased production in sub-Saharan Africa will need to come mainly from increased yields. The demand for hybrid maize has increased rapidly in recent years, particularly in Asia and Latin America. The potential for increasing yields is quite high and the pay off from CGIAR investments in maize research has been substantial, particularly in the lowland tropics. The main constraints are environmental stresses (particularly drought), diseases and insect pests, and low levels of external inputs. Both improved open-pollinated varieties and hybrids are required, depending on local needs and the efficiency of national seed producers. In the lowland tropics, the development of better varieties and improved management practices relevant to farmers’ needs and constraints would contribute considerably to improved production. In sub-Saharan Africa, low fertilizer rates and poor management currently pose a greater constraint than does the availability of high-yielding varieties. In East and Southern Africa, where there are extensive lowland and highland areas ideally suited to maize production, the pay off from the development of appropriate technology for small-scale farmers is exceptionally high, as the case of Zimbabwe shows. In some environments with bimodal rainfall, short-cycle maize outperforms both sorghum and millet. In 1986 TAC considered that the CGIAR System’s major effort in maize research was justified and should be maintained over the long term, and that some additional support should be given in the short to medium term to accelerate the promising results from work in progress. The recommendation took into consideration the crop’s value as food, feed and a source of income for low-income groups and small-scale farmers worldwide; the projected increase in demand; and the expectation that strategic research could successfully address the constraints to higher yields in many developing countries. TAC recognized the urgent and specific needs of sub-Saharan Africa and recommended a shift of effort to those areas where maize is the staple food. In future, for sub-Saharan Africa, emphasis should be placed on development of maize-based cropping systems which utilize the available resources efficiently, maintain Annex III - Page 9 long-term productivity of the lands, and minimize postharvest losses. Varieties with improved nitrogen and water-use efficiency, resistance to parasitic plants {Striga spp.), and resistance to storage pests (weevils and pathogens) are required for these systems. End-user requirements must be considered in breeding programmes in order to increase processing efficiency and the recovery of end products. This should enhance adoption of higher-yielding improved varieties. In sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, perhaps the greatest constraints to increased maize production are Striga spp., particularly Striga hermonthica and Striga asiatica. These obligate root parasites frequently cause yield losses on cereals of more than 50%, and in many areas infestation has become so severe that cereal production has been abandoned. Maize is particularly susceptible to parasitism and yield loss. Control of Striga spp. under African farming conditions is a complex problem. Whilst host-plant resistance can contribute, sustainable control can be achieved only by integrating several control options into diverse cropping systems that involve not only maize, but also other cereals, legumes, roots, tubers, and vegetables. In this regard, legume rotations which have major effects on controlling the parasites, and additionally provide food and improve soil fertility, have tremendous potential. Maize resistance to the parasite can contribute to Striga spp. control. However, for this option to be realized, improved Sm'ga-resistant high-yielding maize cultivars which farmers prefer for their cropping systems, even in the absence of Striga pressure, and which have consumer acceptance, need to be available. Use of Sm'ga-resistant maize and any associated parasite control cannot be sustained without meeting this prerequisite. In 1992, TAC recommended maintaining current efforts in maize research, but noted the rapidly growing involvement of the private sector in the maize industry, making a reduction of maize priority likely in the long term. 1.2.4. Barley Barley is the fourth most important cereal crop. It is grown on about 70 million ha and global production is 160 million t. Developing countries account for about 18% (26 million t) of global production and 25% (18.5 million ha) of the harvested area. In most developing countries barley is a typical crop of poor farmers and of hostile environments. In Tibet, Ethiopia and the Andes, it is cultivated on the mountain slopes at elevations higher than other cereals. In many areas of North Africa, the Near East, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Eritrea, Yemen it is often the only possible rainfed crop, and therefore neither the area nor the production reflect the actual importance of the crop. Compared with average yields of 3.7 t/ha in Europe and 3.0 t/ha in North America, yields average 0.8 t/ha in Africa and 1.7 t/ha in South America, 2.1 t/ha in Asia and 1.3 t/ha for West Asia-North Africa. West Asia-North Africa accounts for 75% of the harvested area in the developing regions, Asia for 11%, sub-Saharan Africa for 5% and Latin America and the Caribbean for 5 %. Some two-thirds of the production is in West Asia-North Africa, and in no other developing region is the crop as important relative to other commodities. Asia accounts for another 21% of production, China for 13% and India for 6%. Annex III - Page 10 Barley grain is mostly used as feed for animals, malt and human food. Barley straw is used as animal feed in the Near East, North Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Yemen, in the Andean region and the Far East. Malt is the second largest use of barley, but the CGIAR System is not directly involved with improvement of malting quality. In many countries such as the highlands of Tibet, Nepal, Ethiopia, the Andean countries, North Africa, Afghanistan, India and Russia, barley is still used as human food either as bread (mixed with bread wheat) or for specific recipes.Developing hull-less barley with improved yield and resistance to common diseases offers great potential for these areas. In the dry and cold areas of West Asia significant progress has been made using a breeding methodology developed at ICARDA and based on the use of locally adapted germplasm and selection for specific adaptation. This has led to the adoption of varieties in very dry areas where it was thought breeding can not have an impact. Consistent yield increases of about 20% have been reported by farmers who adopted the new cultivars. Significant progress has been made in decentralizing breeding activities to North Africa. The same approach is now being gradually implemented in West Asia and in the Far East, but more needs to be done for the adoption of this breeding methodology by NARS. The livestock industry accounts for almost one-third of the value of agricultural production in West Asia-North Africa, and the increasing demand for meat will mean an increased demand for barley as feed. The main constraints to improved production are environmental stresses (especially drought), and insect pests and diseases. In 1986 TAC recommended that the overall allocation to barley research be reduced slightly, but that the effort for West Asia-North Africa be strengthened by phasing out research for other regions. The recommendation took account of the relatively low importance of barley elsewhere (excluding barley grown for malt) and the strength of many national agricultural research programmes. The future challenge is to consolidate on past achievements and to develop a new methodology for introducing farmers’ participation in breeding as a way to exploit specific adaptation and bypass problems to technology transfer. In 1992, TAC recommended maintaining CG efforts, particularly in areas where poor farmers are heavily dependent on barley. Annex III - Page 11 1.2.5. Sorghum Some 70% of the world’s sorghum production (60.9 million t) and 90% of its sorghum area (43.5 million ha) are located in the developing regions. Sorghum is a major crop of the lowland semi-arid tropics with summer rainfall, where it has a special importance, together with millet, as a staple food for millions of very poor people in drought-prone, high-risk areas. In West Africa, sorghum is an important crop in the subhumid areas, where it is intercropped with millet, maize and cowpea. Sorghum is also an important crop in the medium-altitude areas of Ethiopia, and East and Southern Africa. Sorghum tends to have a negative elasticity of demand, and is usually substituted by other foods when income permits. In many areas, the stalks and foliage — used as fodder, fuel and construction materials — are as or more important than the grain. Although the average contribution of sorghum to diets may be low in most developing regions, in semi-arid West Africa it contributes 13% of calorie intake and over 11% of protein, making it the second most important food commodity after millet. In India, it accounts for almost 6% of calorie intake, but in some selected states, e.g. Maharashtra, accounts for a more significant share of calories. In Latin America and the Caribbean, most of the crop products are used for feed. Of the area harvested in developing countries, the three-year average 1992 to 1994 shows that Asia accounts for 38%, sub-Saharan Africa for 52%, West Asia-North Africa for 8% and Latin America and the Caribbean for 12%. India, the largest single producer, accounts for 33 % of the sorghum area in the developing regions and China for 3.5%. In sub-Saharan Africa, some 60% of the sorghum area is located in West Africa, the rest being in East and Southern Africa. However, there is little correlation between area harvested and production share because of the considerable regional variation in yields: these range from 3.9 and 3.7 t/ha in Peru and China respectively to 0.95 t/ha in India and 0.9 t/ha in Western Africa, where many national averages are even lower. In the 1970s, substantial yield increases were achieved in China, Latin America and the Caribbean, and also in India from a very low level. During the 1980s and early 1990s, sorghum area in Asia declined by 25% and production by 5%. The decline in area was mainly in India and China and was offset by further yield increases. India’s area declined by 21% but production increased by 9% due to substantial increases in yields. The decline in area was not uniform, some states showing stable or increasing sorghum cultivation. China’s area declined by 52% and production by 27%. In sub-Saharan Africa, sorghum area has increased by 48% during the same period and production by 23%. In Latin America and the Caribbean, there was a decrease in area of 30% and in production of 25 %. The pattern observed seems to indicate substitution of other crops for sorghum in favourable areas and consolidation or expansion of sorghum growing in rainfed areas that are not suitable for other crops. The world’s most urgent food production problems lie in drought-prone areas such as those of India and the Sahelian zone of Africa, where sorghum and millet are the staple food crops. The events of recent years have demonstrated as never before the Annex III - Page 12 extreme vulnerability of such areas, where the effects of a series of bad years have led to famine and dependence on food aid. The main constraints to sorghum production being addressed through research are drought and biotic stresses. The former targets drought escape through earliness and evaluation of the effects of specific traits that have been associated with drought resistance. The latter include Striga spp., which cause serious losses and prejudice sustainability of production where the land is planted to successive crops of sorghum, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Grain moulds, causing severe reduction in grain quantity and quality, are a problem wherever improved cultivars have been adopted in more favourable production environments, particularly in India. Insect pests cause substantial losses in grain yield in different regions - shoot fly in the post-rainy season crop in India, midge and head bug in Western Africa, and stem borer in all areas. Foliar diseases are important constraints in Western Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia, where they affect both grain yield and stover quality for animal feed. A major objective of varietal improvement research is broadening the genetic base of breeding materials. This is achieved by deliberate introduction of new genetic materials into resistance breeding for the constraints mentioned above. It also includes development of broad based populations targeting improvement of specific traits that are important for sorghum in many areas. The main targets are dual purpose varieties and hybrids which combine high yields of both grain and stover. It includes forage sorghum hybrids, as forage uses of sorghum are increasing rapidly in areas of Asia and Latin America. Other research emphasizes development of management options to mitigate the same biotic and abiotic stresses and their integration into management packages suitable for small scale farmers of the semi-arid tropics. In 1992, TAC recommended maintaining CG efforts, particularly in those areas where poor farmers were heavily dependent on sorghum. 1.2.6. Millet In Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, pearl millet is the most important crop grown under dryland conditions in the lowland semi-arid tropics and subtropical areas with summer rainfall. There it is a staple food, together with sorghum (in sub-Saharan Africa) or wheat (in Asia). Pearl millet provides food for some of the world’s poorest countries and poorest people. It produces grain and fodder under conditions too hot, too dry, and on soils too poor for sorghum and maize. Its straw is a valuable livestock feed in those farming systems. Because some countries combine their statistics for sorghum and millets, the data for millets tend to be unreliable, especially for sub-Saharan Africa. It appears that millets are harvested from about 34 million ha annually in developing countries, of which 26 million ha are pearl millet and the remainder an array of other small-seeded grasses (finger millet, foxtail millet, proso millet, tef, and other species) that are harvested for grain and classified as millets. For pearl millet, India accounts for about 38% of the area, and West Africa for about 46%. Pearl millet is the staple cereal of the Sahelian Annex III - Page 13 Zone of Africa. In semi-arid West Africa, it accounts for about half the daily calorie intake and one-third of the protein for local people. Average millet grain yields are only 500 to 800 kg/ha. Yields increased moderately during the 1970s (12%), showed a more modest increase of 10% during the 1980s, and have stagnated during the early 1990s. World production of millets increased modestly (8%) during the 1970s (with a slight increase in pearl millet in West Africa), declined by 3% during the 1980s as yield increases (10%) were counterbalanced by declines in production area (12%), and stabilized during the early 1990s. In Africa, the area under production has increased by 32% since the 1960s, and this was accompanied by an 8% increase in yield. In Asia, the area decreased by 37%, but yields rose 38%, leading to a net decrease of 13% in production. Clearly, unless millet yields can be further improved and stabilized, the future for dryland food production in the semi-arid tropics will continue to look bleak. In India, ICRISATs efforts in pearl millet improvement have met with substantial success: over 3 million ha or a third of the area is now sown to improved pearl millet hybrids and open-pollinated varieties based on parental materials of ICRISAT origin. The main constraints of pearl millet production are the same as for sorghum: environmental stress (especially drought and soil fertility), crop establishment, birds, Striga, diseases, and insect pests. Recent research developments in cytoplasmic diversification of hybrid parents, alternative cultivar types such as topcross hybrids that exploit heterosis but reduce genetic vulnerability compared to single-cross hybrids, identification of molecular markers for genes controlling downy mildew resistance and components of grain yield all augur well for making pearl millet an even more reliable component of agricultural systems in the harsh environments of the semi-arid tropics. These technologies, together with participatory approaches to identifying the real needs of farmers and their families in these environments, will help the people of these regions help themselves to achieve a more sustainable and self-sufficient food production system. In 1992, TAC recommended maintaining current efforts in millet research. 1.3. Roots, Tubers, Banana and Plantain 1.3.1. Cassava Cassava is an important food crop in Africa, particularly in the humid and subhumid tropics. It is also important in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Besides roots, in Africa, the leaves are eaten as a green vegetable in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa and provide a cheap and rich source of protein and Vitamins A and B. The crop is grown mostly by small-scale farmers, for whom it is a major source of cash income and food energy. It tolerates low-fertility soils, drought and can be left in the ground as a food reserve for long periods. Cassava ranks among the 15 Annex III - Page 14 most important agricultural commodities in developing countries with respect to value of production, and is the most important in sub-Saharan Africa. World production in 1994, all from developing countries, was about 152.5 million t from about 15.8 million ha and a production of 159.1 million is forecasted for 1995 - some 42.7% of the total area in developing countries devoted to root crops. This represents an increase in production of 19.6% and in harvested area of 11.8% during the past decade. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for approximately 47% of world production, Asia for about 31%, and Latin America and the Caribbean for 20% (77.4% of this from Brazil. Currently Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia, Thailand and Zaire are the world’s largest producers. Thailand is the dominant world exporter. In contrast, there is very little export from Africa where production is almost entirely used as food. Cassava is the most important root crop in Africa, where it accounts for 59.2% of the harvested root crop area. It has three main roles namely, - a major source of cash income for those households which produce and/or process the crop, a low cost carbohydrate staple for low income urban and rural consumers, and a food security crop in vulnerable areas. It is used mainly in processed forms (about 70% of total production) such as meal or flour, while the remainder is used in fresh form. It is a major source of dietary energy for over 200 million people contributing an average of more than 200 calories per day per capita. Nigeria and Zaire are the largest African producers, accounting for 55.8% (40.6 million t) of production. In Asia, there are many more end uses and all the principal producing countries have starch industries. In Thailand, cassava is produced largely for export as pellets for animal feed. However, the share of native and modified starch has been increasing significantly since the early 1990s. In Latin America and the Caribbean, cassava’s principal use is as food, but an increasing amount of cassava is being processed into cassava chips and especially into starches. From the early 1980s to the early 1990s yield gains were about 5.9% (from 10.2 to 10.8 t/ha) for the developing nations as a whole, 11.6% for Africa (from 6.9 to 7.7 t/ha), 5.5% for Latin America and the Caribbean (from 10.9 to 11.5 t/ha), and 3.1% for Asia (from 12.7 to 13.1 t/ha). Current average yields for Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China are 14.0, 11.9, 22.5, and 14.8 t/ha respectively, compared with an average 7.7 t/ha in Africa. With real incomes increasing slowly or not at all in most sub-Saharan African countries, there seems likely to be an increasing demand for cassava as a human food, at least until the year 2010. Also, the crop has a special significance as a food reserve. Enhancement of all of cassava’s roles (income generation, cheap food, and food reserve) requires breeding for high yield, early bulking and processing qualities. In addition, improvements in processing technologies to achieve better quality and diversity of products, and to reduce processing labour are required, all of which will impact favourably on women. Besides the need to diminish the cyanogen content for safety reasons and to reduce processing and food preparation time required by women, cassava research in Africa should address the following principal issues: improvement of the role of cassava as a subsistence and famine relief crop; utilization of the crop’s potential for income and employment generation; and the generation of marketable surpluses with significant added value to meet rising urban demand for new products. Overcoming significant biotic and abiotic constraints are the major challenge in Africa. The successful strategy applied during the 1980s for the biological control of mealy bug is currently being extended to some of the crop’s other major pests. Annex III - Page 15 Cassava production in Asia has increased at an annual rate of about 1 % during the past 25 years. Thailand is the region’s largest producer, with about 39% of total production, and has become an important exporter of starch and cassava chips and pellets for animal feed. The market in Asia seems likely to remain healthy due to the demand- led diversification of cassava’s end uses i.e. modified starches. There exists a strong demand, especially from the industrial sector, for more high-yielding clones with superior starch contents. In addition, increasing attention is being paid to improve yields while decreasing the risk of endangering the natural resource base. The latter is being addressed through a multi-country project that aims to reduce soil erosion and improve soil fertility in upland cassava systems through an FPR approach. Cassava production in Latin America and the Caribbean declined from 1975 to 1984 at an annual rate of 1.4%, especially in Brazil where it declined at an annual rate of 2.0%. After 1984, production remained more or less stable, decreasing slightly in NE-Brazil (due to major droughts) while increasing in S-Brazil and Colombia. Cassava remains a small-farm crop grown in marginal areas where soil fertility and moisture limit the production of other crops. Nevertheless, cassava farmers sell a high proportion of their production. Urbanization has led to decreasing per caput consumption of fresh cassava, but the crop is increasingly being used in animal feeds through the intervention of small-scale farmer associations producing low-cost dried cassava chips. In addition, in most countries in the region cassava starch processing has become increasingly important. As a result of sustained training efforts in several disciplines and at a range of levels, the national programmes in sub-Saharan Africa have steadily strengthened. In addition, strong and effective collaborative links have come into place between national programmes and the CGIAR system for the realization of common research goals, especially in the fields of biological control, plant breeding and cellular biotechnology. However, national research capacity is still limited and a continued strong research input by the CGIAR system is justified. The scope of research that is required is similar to that which TAC recommended in 1986, with some alteration in emphasis. Findings from the Collaborative Study of Cassava in Africa (COSCA) showed that increased commercial opportunities for cassava, drive production increases, and generating income for rural people. Therefore, future research should emphasize postharvest technology, quality of roots for various end-uses, pest and disease control and to a lesser extent foliage production for use as vegetable. These issues have remained a high priority. In addition, cassava market assessment needs to indicate opportunities for improved or novel cassava- based products. This information will serve technological interventions, strengthening the gradual transformation of cassava from subsistence toward market orientation. In Asia, demand was buoyant and national programmes, though relatively young, were strong. The main requirements from the CGIAR System seemed to be improved germplasm and consultation services on technical problems, especially production agronomy. These observations in general are still valid. However, a strong cassava market diversification, away from cassava pellets, and towards (modified) starches has taken place in most Asian countries. This, together with changing government policies, has put further pressure on improved cassava varieties, especially in terms of improved starch content. Furthermore, the continuing shift of cassava production towards more marginal areas, emphasizes the need for R&D to maintain the fragile resource base. Annex III - Page 16 Since 1986, several studies carried out in Latin America and the Caribbean have shown that cassava is increasingly being used in animal feeds. The rapid increase in demand for feed, coupled with the cereals deficit, suggests considerable future demand for dried cassava. In the absence of price distortions, cassava is highly competitive with cereal grains. In addition, new technologies and new product demand have significantly strengthened demand for industrial, fermented and modified starches throughout the continent. Also, while urbanization has led to a decrease in the per capita consumption of fresh cassava, pilot studies indicate increased demand on the part of urban dwellers and new "convenience food" cassava products. Overall, the major areas for market expansion for cassava in Latin America and the Caribbean are seen to be animal feed, refined flours and starches. A series of cassava industry and market studies are being conducted to guide applied cassava research in the area of postharvest, processing and product development. Significant efforts continue to be needed in further linking small-scale cassava farmers to growth markets following the successful concept of Integrated Cassava R&D Projects. In addition, cassava productivity research aims for integrated approaches to overcome the major biotic and abiotic stresses, ensure the environmental soundness of technology options and maintain the competitiveness of the crop. In 1992, TAC recommended a continuation of CG efforts in cassava research. 1.3.2. Potato Approximately 30% (about 89 million t) of the world’s potato crop is currently produced in developing countries, mainly by small-scale farmers, compared to only 15% two decades ago. Potato is a labour intensive crop. The nutrient value (including Vitamin C) of potato is high, and the crop is particularly useful as a source of energy and protein and as an infant weaning food. High yields «are possible, demand is growing rapidly due to positive income elasticity of demand for the crop at low income levels, and potato has a high value as a cash crop. It ranks among the ten most important food crops in developing countries with respect to gross value of production. In 1992/94, developing countries accounted for about 37% of the area harvested. China is the largest producer, accounting for 42% of the 89 million t of potatoes produced in developing countries in 1989, while the rest of Asia accounted for 18%, Latin America and the Caribbean for 14%, West Asia-North Africa for 15% and sub-Saharan Africa for 3%. Yields vary from about 6 t/ha in sub-Saharan Africa to 18 t/ha in West Asia-North Africa, compared with an average of 20 t/ha in developed countries. During the 1980s, yields in the developing regions as a whole increased by 13%, from 10.9 to 12.2 t/ha. A further 6% increase was obtained in the first years of the 1990s, as average yields rose to 13 t/ha. Among the major constraints to increased production are the high costs of production, various diseases and pests, the perishability of the crop during storage, and the difficulty of developing varieties adapted to higher temperatures. As in the case of other roots and tubers, national research capacity in potato research was generally weak at the start of CGIAR activities with this commodity. Only 2% of the world’s potato production is traded on international markets because of the perishability of the crop, whose high water content makes its transport over long distances risky. Quarantine regulations also restrict international trade in potato. Annex III - Page 17 Potato has responded well to research, and plant breeding has already brought about significant improvements in the crop in developing countries. Virology research in the potato has advanced greatly, and the safe movement of germplasm is now a reality. The adoption of improved potato varieties is often delayed by the absence of national seed or multiplication systems. There is also a need for greater attention to the integration of potato in sustainable cropping systems. In 1986, TAC recommended that the level of support for potato research should continue in the short to medium term, given the short history of research for tropical and subtropical regions. TAC further recommended that, in view of the stronger national programmes then beginning to emerge and the spillovers from research in developed countries, CGIAR support be reduced in the medium to long term. In 1992, TAC recommended maintaining CG efforts at current levels. To sustain production increases in the future, a coordinated effort to develop more durable host plant resistance to potato late blight is required. Greater emphasis is also required, through molecular virology, in building immunity to the main viruses which are second to late blight in terms of their importance as constraints to potato production. 1.3.3. Sweet potato Sweet potato is now widely grown as a staple food in developing countries outside tropical America, where it originated. Although sweet potato statistics are dominated by the production level of China (the world’s largest sweet potato producer accounting for about 80% of production), the crop is also grown in many small countries with typically very low income levels. Sweet potato has very little research history, and outside the CGIAR only very little research is conducted on the crop. It is well adapted to warm tropical lowlands and produces relatively well under low-input conditions on good soils. Depending on variety, the crop can be harvested in three to six months. Sweet potato fits well into the multiple cropping systems of Asia. The protein content of the roots is marginally greater than that of cassava and about half that of potato and yam. Sweet potato provides large shares of calories, protein and Vitamin C, as well as Vitamin A in yellow cultivars to the diets of the poor. When eaten as a vegetable, the green leaves provide additional protein, vitamins and minerals. Production costs and labour inputs are low in terms of the yield and calories produced. Per caput production of sweet potato has decreased during the past 20 years, and the area harvested has also diminished. As income levels have risen the consumption of sweet potato has fallen. There has also been diversification in the uses made of sweet potato. For example, in China, only about 26% of sweet potato production is now used for human consumption, as against 35% for livestock feed, 28% for industrial uses (starch and alcohol) and 11% for seed or processed snacks. Of the 9.1 million ha of sweet potato harvested on average between 1992 and 1994 in developing countries, Asia accounted for 82%, sub-Saharan Africa for 15%, and Latin America and the Caribbean for 3%. About 131 million t of sweet potato are produced altogether, of which 98% is from developing countries. China dominates world production, producing over 85 % of developing country output, and this masks the Annex III - Page 18 importance of sweet potato in many small countries such as the Pacific Islands. In terms of gross value of production sweet potato ranks eighth among the major agricultural commodities in developing countries. The demand for sweet potato is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, where the harvested area is relatively small. Production is estimated to have increased by 25% in the 1970s and by 13% in the 1980s, and is now 2.6 times higher than that of Latin America and the Caribbean, where it declined during the 1970s but increased by 9% during the 1980s. Although current yields in sub-Saharan Africa average only 6 t/ha, the crop’s high yield potential has been demonstrated by the CGIAR System’s research in that region, which has led to varieties that can produce more than 40 t/ha in four months when grown in the wet season. Similar results have been obtained from new Asian varieties. Current yields in the developing regions as a whole average around 14t/ha, with an average yield of about 18t/ha in China. Substantial potential exists for an expansion of the importance of sweet potato and its foliage as a livestock feed. Pests and diseases, such as the sweet potato weevil, stemborer, viruses and mycoplasma-like organisms, are major production constraints. Integrated pest management, including the use of transparence resistance customs, appears to show promise for the future. Unlike cassava, the crop cannot be stored in the ground beyond maturity, as it sprouts easily and is subject to pest attacks. Nor does it store well once lifted, although slicing and drying alleviate this problem to some extent. In 1986 TAC considered sweet potato to be a neglected crop and recommended that the research effort be increased substantially. It recognized a need for greater collaboration between the CGIAR Centres and other institutions involved in research on the crop, such as AVRDC. The role of sweet potato in the development of new foods and food processing technologies could make it a highly valuable cash crop and employment generator in the medium to long term. In 1987, sweet potato was added to CIP’s mandate, and in 1990, AVRDC decided to stop further work on sweet potato. In 1992, TAC recommended maintaining current CG efforts in sweet potato research. 1.3.4. Andean Root and Tuber Crops In 1993, CIP began a programme to reduce wild and domesticated Andean root and tuber crop species threatened by genetic erosion. Collection, preservation, and utilization of nine of the lesser known Andean root and tuber crops are currently underway in collaboration with national programmes, universities and NGOs in Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru, and Brazil. The initiative also supports in situ conservation by identifying microcentres of diversity and by monitoring the handling of RAT by farmers at four sites in Peru and one in Bolivia. In addition, the project is conducting research aimed at identifying and managing major disease constraints. Annex III - Page 19 1.3.5. Yam Yams are cultivated throughout the tropics, and in parts of the sub-tropics and temperate zones. They are of major importance in sub-Saharan Africa, and in the Pacific and Caribbean islands. Estimated world production is 28.1 million tonnes of which 95% is grown in sub-Saharan Africa, mainly in the West and Central regions, and in small amounts elsewhere. Virtually all production is used for human food. It is the second most important root/tuber crops in Africa with production reaching just under one third the level of cassava. Nigeria is the largest producer (about 20 million tonnes), but the crop is important wherever it is grown. By virtue of its excellent palatability, it is high value crop and, in spite of rather limited research attention, the popularity of this food crop never wavers. More than 95% (2.8 million ha) of the current global area under yam cultivation is in sub-Saharan Africa, where the crop accounts for about 21% of the area cultivated with root crops in the continent’s root-crop belt. Nigeria alone accounts for about 70% (16 million t) of the world production of yam. Yam is a preferred food and a food security crop in some sub-Saharan African countries. The most intensive area of production is in West Africa, in the southerly part of the lowland moist savanna zone. It is also grown in certain parts of the forest zone and, over the past decade or so, it has gradually extended into lower rainfall areas of the savanna, using alluvial soils of inland valleys. Because it is highly appreciated when prepared as a fresh starchy food, it is marketed into non-producing areas thus employment in transportation and sales at urban and rural markets. Unlike some other tropical root/tuber crops (cassava, sweet potato and aroids), yam tubers can be stored for periods of up to four or even six months at ambient temperatures. This characteristic contributes to the sustaining of food supply, especially in the difficult (food scarce) period at the start of the wet season. In West Africa, the white yam - Dioscorea rotondata - is the most highly prized type and the one that has received most attention from the CGIAR System. Yam production is limited by various diseases and pests. Nematodes cause serious damage both in the field and in storage. Postharvest losses also result from fungal and bacterial rots and insects as well as from increased respiration and sprouting when tubers break dormancy. A further hindrance to yam cultivation is high costs, which are a consequence of the heavy labour requirements at planting and harvest and sizeable expenditures on planting material (‘seed’ yams, in the form of whole small tubers or tuber pieces). The need for staking is another cost, but this is not a major limitation in the prime production ecology (the savanna) because high solar radiation obviates the necessity for staking. Production is carried out mainly with hand tools, and labour demands are high for planting, weeding, staking and harvesting. The cost of planting material is high: 20-30% of the previous harvest. In sub-Saharan Africa, mean gross yields are 10 t/ha (7- 8 t/ha net, after allowing for next season’s planting material). International research efforts on yam are fairly recent and small, but results are promising. Within the CGIAR System, non-stake lines capable of producing 20 t/ha have been produced and new techniques for the production of planting materials should reduce the drain on harvests. These techniques have already led to a small seed-yam production industry among yam growers in Nigeria. Research has also found ways of triggering flowering, thereby allowing plant breeding to begin. In recent years, yam breeding has made progress in the development of improved cultivars which achieve stable high yields Annex III - Page 20 and can even perform well under conditions of natural soil fertility with no staking. Yield potential of the most recent elite germplasm is in the range of 25-30 t/ha. In 1986, TAC recommended that the effort on yams be increased to a level sufficient to make a rapid impact on production and postharvest problems. TAC viewed the increased efforts devoted to yam as a short-term thrust to determine whether the apparent breakthroughs in seed propagation and the development of non-staking varieties could make the anticipated impact on production in farmers’ fields. In view of advances made in the last five years, IITA is implementing extensive regional testing of improved germplasm. Within the next five years, with the present level of multidisciplinary research input, new pre- and postharvest technologies will be available for evaluation with farmers in selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including countries where yam is now a minor crop. In 1992, TAC recommended maintaining CG efforts, but asked that the next external review of IITA consider the future role of the CGIAR in yam research. 1.3.6. Banana and Plantain Banana and plantain are staple food crops for millions of people in developing countries. About 90% of production takes place on small farms and is consumed locally. Only 10%, mainly from commercial plantations in Latin America and the Caribbean, enters world trade. In terms of gross value of production, banana and plantain rank eighth after rice, milk, beef, wheat, maize, soybean and groundnut. Banana and plantain production is threatened by pest and disease pressures, which have been increasing the past 15 years. These include black sigatoka leaf spot disease, Fusarium wilt (Panama disease), banana weevil, a complex of plant parasitic nematodes and several virus diseases (banana bunchy top, banana mosaic, banana streak, and others). Black sigatoka disease causes such severe leaf necrosis that fruit yield decreases by 30-5). Weevil and nematode damage generally reduce plant vigour and increase susceptibility to wind lodging. Proper management of soil fertility, including provision of soil organic matter through regular mulching, is essential for maintaining the perennial productivity of banana and plantain. In the humid lowlands of sub-Saharan Africa, the so-called ’yield decline syndrome’ of plantain is observed after one or two cycles of cropping in large-scale field plantations. Whilst the reasons for this yield decline are complex, the pressure on land and the associated shortening of fallow periods and decline in soil fertility exacerbate the problem. Similarly in the banana production systems of midaltitude and highland areas, declining yields are undoubtedly related to reduced soil fertility and mineral deficiencies arising from use of poorer soils. Postharvest losses of plantain and banana are a serious deterrent to expanding production in some countries. Surplus production during the main cropping season is the primary cause, but losses can also be attributed to poor methods of harvest, transportation and storage of the fruit. Plantain and banana are generally considered intractable to genetic improvement due to their triploid nature which results in almost complete sterility. Nevertheless, in Annex III - Page 21 recent years the CGIAR system and other regional plantain and banana improvement programmes have made excellent progress in breeding hybrids with resistance to black sigatoka, improved yields and acceptable fruit quality. In addition, research in cellular biotechnology and virus diagnostics have provided ways to achieve delivery of improved germplasm on the scale necessary for achieving impact with small scale growers. With respect to future research, it is now possible for the focus to shift away from control of black sigatoka disease to other biotic stresses (nematodes, weevil, virus diseases) using an integrated approach. In addition to high and stable yields, increased tolerance of drier soil conditions, improved plant architecture, including root systems, suckering behaviour, and reduced plant height, and postharvest requirements (preferred quality together with better handling characteristics) should also be objectives for genetic improvement programmes.’ The main challenges to research include breeding for resistance to Black Sigatoka disease, Fusarium Wilt (Panama disease), Bunch Top Virus and banana weevil, and the development of improved production systems. In 1990, the CGIAR decided to extend its support for banana and plantain research beyond the humid and subhumid tropics of sub-Saharan Africa, to include Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. The main challenges to research include breeding for resistance to Black Sigatoka disease, Fusarium Wilt (Panama disease), Bunch Top Virus and banana weevil, and the development of improved production systems. In 1990, the CGIAR decided to extend its support for banana and plantain research beyond the humid and subhumid tropics of sub-Saharan Africa, to include Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. In 1994, CG efforts in banana and plantain research were streamlined through the integration of INIBAP into IPGRI. 1.4. Food Legumes 1.4.1. Chickpea The oldest records of the cultivated chickpea are from Turkey, and it is assumed that the crop spread out globally from that area. Generally the crop is grown on small- scale farms as both food and cash crop. The seeds are used whole, dehulled or as flour. Immature shoots and seed may be used as vegetables. In 1994, world production was 7.9 million t from 10.2 million ha, of which 97% was from developing countries. For the 1992 to 1994 three-year production average, Asia accounted for 76% of production, Africa 3 %, and Latin America and the Caribbean each for 3 %. Yields have shown a steady increase of about 0.5% annually over the past two decades. During 1971-73 the average yield globally was 644 kg ha1; during 1991-93 it was 705 kg ha1, and during 1992-94 720 kg ha'1. The small-seeded desi types, which account for about 85% of world production, are grown on the Indian subcontinent, in Ethiopia, Australia and in parts of Mexico, Annex III - Page 22 Afghanistan and Iran. The large-seeded kabuli types are grown in the Mediterranean region, parts of Mexico, and to some extent on the Indian subcontinent. In the tropics and subtropics with summer rainfall, chickpea is mostly grown on residual soil moisture or sometimes under irrigation. In the subtropics with winter rainfall, the crop is generally sown during the spring. It usually receives few inputs other than labour, insecticides and seed. Chickpea is an important dietary item in South East Asia, India and the West Asia-North Africa region and Ethiopia. The protein content of the seed is about 20%. The average yield for all developing countries was about 720 kg/ha, but the Central American yield is almost twice as high, and experiments in India with limited irrigation have produced yields of over 5 t ha'1. Changes in yield and production reflect climatic factors and changes in agronomic practices and varieties. The area harvested globally has remained stable (around 10 million ha). Consumption has followed production, and it is expected that demand may increase with population in India, though at slower rate, and in West Asia-North Africa, where chickpea is consumed by all income groups. In developed countries, consumption is increasing rapidly. The major constraints to production include disease susceptibility of local varieties, environmental stresses, drought, diseases, pests and poor crop management. CGIAR efforts have already produced significant results, notably the combination of blight resistance and frost tolerance, which has enabled winter sowing and a potential doubling of production in the low-elevation areas of West Asia-North Africa region. This has led to potential yield increases of 50 to 100%. A break-through has been achieved by the breeding of wilt resistant, extra-short duration varieties that can grow under the harshest conditions in Eastern Africa and Southern Asia where soil-borne diseases can be devastating and drought escape adds a main stability factor to the crop. Analysis and resolution of the "wilt complex" has enabled more targeted improvement. Higher yielding, disease and pest-resistant lines have been made available by breeders. New, more effective strains of rhizobia have been identified, leading to increases in nodulation and biological nitrogen fixation. Sources of resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses have been identified from the annual wild Cicer species and efforts are nearing completion to transfer genes for resistance to cyst nematode and cold in chickpea. There is active research collaboration with national programmes and advanced research institutions. Research in West Asia - North Africa has focused on increasing productivity and stability through varietal improvement for disease and cold resistance, and the development of better production technology. To upgrade the level of resistance in varieties for ascochyta blight, use of molecular marker technology has shown potential and will have to be increasingly used. Tissue culture techniques offer opportunities to enable crossing of chickpea with currently non-crossable Cicer species to unlock and use large variability for useful traits. Current research points to the possibility to increase seed yield through increased shoot biomass and manipulation of the crop phenology. These will have to be further explored. Emphasis will have to be laid on the developing cultivars for adaptation to specific niches in different cropping systems, for which increased decentralized breeding and participatory approach will have to be used. For Eastern and Southern Africa, research into drought and soil-borne diseases and increased Annex III - Page 23 productivity has resulted in recent releases of high yielding, disease resistant varieties of both the desi and kabuli type in suitable agroecological areas. 1.4.2. Cowpea Cowpea is widely grown in the warm semi-arid and subhumid regions of sub-Saharan Africa and locally important in the Caribbean Islands, Brazil, PDR Yemen, the Indian subcontinent and southeast Asia. About 80% of the production in Africa is in West Africa, with Nigerian production accounting for about 70% of the cowpea in West Africa. Cowpea is usually grown by subsistence farmers and in mixtures with maize, sorghum, millet and cassava. It is a pivotal crop for enhancing sustainability of cropping systems because it fixes large amounts of nitrogen for its own growth with residues returning to the soil, is quick growing and produces an excellent ground cover to reduce soil erosion, and has the capacity, in the case of some cowpea varieties, to cause "suicidal seed germination" of the parasitic plant Striga hermonthica that attacks cereal crops, often with devastating effects. The dry seed is an important source of Vitamin B and protein (22% edible protein) and provides an estimated 6.5% of total protein consumed in semi- arid West Africa. Cowpea leaves are a preferred vegetable and an excellent source of protein in many areas of Africa. Cowpea haulm is also an important source of livestock feed. Average yields in developing countries are about 240 kg/ha. Some countries have made progress in the release and adoption of improved varieties, e.g., Ghana, and the benefits of this are evident in national statistics (Ghana National Statistics: 1977-79, mean yields 300 kg/ha compared with 600 kg/ha in 1987-89, and a continuing upward trend is reported. However, the best short- to medium-duration varieties so far developed can yield 2,500-3,000 kg/ha in field conditions on research stations, and short-duration varieties can achieve over 2,000 kg/ha in 60-90 days. The major constraints to farm yields are three insect pests, flower thirps, Manica pod borer and pod-sucking bugs. Only low levels of resistance have been found in the cowpea germplasm for each of these three insect pests. In 1994-95, a very efficient method was developed to regenerate and produce transformed cowpea plants. This major research breakthrough has made it very probable that the CGIAR system will make significant progress in developing cowpea varieties with good levels of resistance to these three insect pests. In addition, progress in research on biological control of flower thrips, based on natural enemies, indicates that this technology may also be a feasible control measure. The reduction in damage from insect pests is expected to increase average cowpea grain yields in West Africa and other cowpea growing regions by at least 100%. In marginal areas (the Sahel) where the rainfall is 350 mm per year or less and often soils are very poor, the damage caused by insect pests is much less than in more humid areas. Recent results have shown that relatively high grain yields are obtained from breeding lines which have been improved for tolerance to drought and heat. Future research will seek to continue to develop varieties for these ecologies, combining tolerance to drought and heat, with improved P use efficiency. Annex III - Page 24 In 1986 TAC recommended that the resource allocation to cowpea be maintained for the medium term, but with an expansion of efforts in tropical America and Asia. The factors leading to this recommendation were: the importance of cowpea as a subsistence crop in sub-Saharan Africa; its qualities of genetic diversity, fast maturation, wide environmental adaptability, resistance to drought, ability to fix nitrogen, and easy placement in cropping systems which, if exploited, could make it the most valuable of the pulses in the semi-arid to subhumid tropics; the potential value in other regions of a short- duration legume; the rapid growth occurring in production and consumption; the already promising results emerging from cowpea’s short research history; and the limited capacity of national research programmes. TAC also recommended that research supported by the CGIAR System continue to concentrate on increasing yields and their stability and on improving management practices. While all of the factors cited to support the TAC recommendations of 1986 remain valid, the important role of cowpea (especially semi-determinate and spreading, dual purpose types) in the sustainability of crop-livestock production systems in marginal environments is now better understood and increasingly emphasised by national programme scientists (eg refer to the Second World Cowpea Research Conference, 1995 - Recommendations and Resolutions). Thus, in future research on this crop, the CGIAR system could make major contributions, not only in the needed area of insect pest management, but also in optimising the contribution that cowpea can make to resource management. 1.4.3. Broad (faba) bean Faba Bean is a spring crop in temperate regions and a winter crop in subtropical regions with mild winters. It is grown at high elevations in tropical and subtropical regions. Two main groups exist: small-seeded types, found in Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Afghanistan; and large-seeded types, found in other parts of West Asia-North Africa. Developing countries account for approximately 90% of the global production of 3.8 million t. (FAO 1994 Production Yearbook). Of the developing country share, China accounts for 62%, West Asia-North Africa 17.6, Africa 7.5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 3.7%. The protein content is high (25% of edible portion, and faba bean is a popular food in West Asia-North Africa, though it provides 9.9% of the region’s protein. Faba bean is also a source of Vitamin B. Developing country yields of mature seed average 1,300 kg/ha, more than double that of many other pulses (FAO 1994 Production Yearbook). It is estimated that about 20% of the crop is consumed green and is not accounted for in production estimates. Demand is likely to increase as population rises: faba bean is a preferred pulse in North Africa and parts of West Asia, and provides variety to diets elsewhere. The crop is important in rotation in low monetary-input agriculture because of its high biological nitrogen fixation (120 by N/ha) and beneficial residual effect for subsequent cereal crops. The constraints to production include: diseases, the parasitic weed, Orobanche, field and storage pests, poor crop management, and soil salinity in some areas. Annex III - Page 25 In 1986 TAC recommended that CGIAR support for faba bean research be phased out for the following reasons: the crop is not important globally; China, the largest producer, has a strong national programme; and there are only 1 million ha under the crop in other developing countries, excluding China. The CGIAR was advised to only support the conservation and management of faba bean germplasm collections. In accordance with these instructions, ICARDA relocated its faba bean programme to Morocco in August 1989 and had transferred the programme to the Moroccan national programme by the end of 1992, which was provided funding by a BMZ special project for a regional network on faba bean for Maghreb countries led by Morocco. There has been limited progress in this initiative. Consultation with the national programmes of the countries where faba bean is an important crop in the farming system has revealed the need for continued crop improvement efforts on this crop in the CGIAR system. The external programme review of ICARDA in 1993 emphasized the fact that the devolution of faba bean improvement work to NARS was premature and the NARS wanted a review. According to ICARDA, it is necessary that CGIAR should continue to support faba bean improvement research for the following reasons: 1. The China national programme is not as strong as was asserted by the TAC commission on crop priorities. It’s strength was greatly overestimated. ICARDA has just become involved in an ACIAR supported trilateral project including NSW Agriculture, China and ICARDA. Die primary reason for instigation of this project was the request of the Chinese national programme of an urgent need to strengthen faba bean research in the country. 2. The Morocco national programme has asked ICARDA to become involved in strengthening its faba bean programme. The programme is not strong enough to work without backup support. Also, BMZ has sent feelers for ICARDA to become reinvolved in the BMZ network project for Maghreb in backstopping the North African Faba Bean Improvement Programme because of continued weakness of NARS in faba bean germplasm and crop improvement research. 3. National programmes both within and outside WANA have been asking for backup support in faba bean improvement and for providing nurseries of improved germplasm for their use. 4. There has been a realization also throughout Europe and Australia, that, with the largest germplasm collection of faba bean in the world, ICARDA is in a unique position to promote globally the genetic improvement of faba bean. The second International Conference on Cool Season Food Legumes held at Cairo, Egypt in 1992 unanimously recommended this. In the past four years the ICARDA Genetic Resources Unit has collected faba bean germplasm in Morocco, Tunisia, Baluchistan in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. The past year work was initiated on regeneration of the germplasm collections with support from GRDC, Australia. This year this Australian support has allowed disease Annex III - Page 26 screening to be restarted along with the preliminary evaluation of the germplasm for agronomic traits. ICARDA is requesting TAC to consider reestablishment of a fully supported faba bean improvement programme at ICARDA to meet the requirements of the region and the global mandate of ICARDA for faba bean. 1.4.4. Lentil Global lentil production is growing rapidly. It has risen by 110% from 1.3 million t in the period 1979-81 to 2.8 million t in the period 1992-94, due to a fifty percent increase in area to 3.38 million ha and an increase in productivity of 38% from 600 kg/ha to 820 kg/ha. Developing countries account for 87 % of the world lentil area. The major producing regions are Asia (58% of the area) and WANA (37% of the acreage of developing countries). Lentil is the most important pulse in Bangladesh and Nepal, where it makes a large contribution to the diet. The above expansion in production and productivity in Asia has come mainly from India, Iran, Nepal and Turkey. Other significant producers in the developing world include Argentina, China, PDR Ethiopia, Morocco, Pakistan and Syria. The expansion of production is fuelled by the rising demand of an increasing population and this trend will continue. The crop is important for its use as a pulse and as a small ruminant feed. In the drier areas of West Asia and North Africa lentil is a key component of the traditional farming systems integrating barley, small ruminants and lentil. For the Mediterranean Basin, research emphasis at ICARDA was initially on the development of harvest systems to reduce the high cost of production from a hand harvest. Such systems, involving cultivars with better standing ability and height, flattened seed beds and cutter bars, have and are being transferred to NARS in West Asia. Significant on-farm adoption of improved technology has occurred in Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, Syria and Turkey. Vascular wilt is the most important disease of lentil and resistance is now being exploited for disease control. To control the damage of Sitona weevil to lentil nodules, genetic engineering will be employed to transfer a gene for toxin production into the lentil roots. In the highlands of West Asia, lentil is usually spring sown, but sources of winter hardiness are under exploitation. As yield increases of above 50% have been realized from early winter sowing, the focus is now on exploiting this gain on-farm. In South Asia, a network of researchers is targeting two production systems which offer scope for a major expansion in production: the relay sowing of lentil into rice paddy and the development of early lentil to sow after long season rice. Combined disease resistance is being incorporated into genetic material for both systems. The first lentil cultivars with combined disease resistance are poised to impact on-farm production in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Lentil production, productivity and demand are rising rapidly in the developing world and ICARDA has made a positive assessment of the potential pay-off from planned research. Consequently, ICARDA will maintain and manage the genetic resources of lentil, continue to address the role of lentil in the farming system and focus improvement research to complete the above research agenda. Annex III - Page 27 1.4.5. Phaseolus Bean Phaseolus bean, or common bean, is the world’s most important food-legume. Common beans are grown in two forms, as dry beans and snap beans (the green pods are consumed as a vegetable). Global production of dry beans is estimated to be 18 million metric tons annually, with a market value of US$ 10.7 billion. Dry beans accounts for 57% of the world’s food-legume production, having twice the production and market value of chick peas, the next leading food pulse. Another 3 million metric tons of snap beans are also produced annually. Nearly 80% of dry bean production occurs in the developing countries on small-scale farms. Latin America, the centre of Phaseolus domestication, produces nearly half the world’s supply of dry beans. Brazil, Mexico, and Central America are the major producing regions in this continent. FAO production statistics for 1990-1995 show that dry bean production in Latin America is increasing by 3.4%. Most of this increase is due to higher yields (4.0%) as area under production shows a slight negative trend (-0.7%). The adoption of improved bean varieties appears to be a factor attributing to the higher yields and to the slowing down of bean expansion into marginal areas. Africa is considered to be a secondary centre for bean genetic diversity. About 3 million hectares of beans are planted annually in eastern, central and southern Africa, usually as mixtures of varieties. FAO statistics for 1980-1995 show that bean production is increasing at 1.2%, significantly below population growth rate. To meet future consumption demands by the year 2000, an average yield increase of 300 kg per hectare will be needed. Meanwhile, declining bean production and consumption is contributing to an overall deterioration of human nutritional trends in these regions. Beans are nutritionally rich, especially in protein and iron, and are a good source of dietary fibre and complex carbohydrates. Given their nutritional quality and high consumption levels, beans make an important contribution to human nutrition, especially for poor consumers. In addition to high quality protein, a single serving (1 cup) of beans provides at least half the USDA-recommended daily allowance of folic acid (a B vitamin that is especially important for pregnant women) and 25-30% of the daily recommended iron levels. Similarly, the same serving of beans provide 25 % of the daily requirements of magnesium and copper, and 15% of potassium and zinc. Furthermore, the presence of beans in the diet significantly increases the utilization of maize and rice proteins due to complementarity in amino acids. Beans play a very important role in human nutrition in the eastern Africa highlands, Mexico, Brazil, and Central America. In eastern and southern Africa, beans are the second most important source of protein after maize, and the third most important source of calories after maize and cassava. In Latin America beans are ranked forth as a protein source, similar in overall importance to milk and beef, and sixth as a source of calories, exceeded by such staples as cassava, potato and beef. Consumption of beans is high in large part because beans are a relatively inexpensive food. In Brazil, the world’s largest consumer of beans, the cost of calories from beans is less than from rice or cassava, only maize is a cheaper source. Beans are Annex III - Page 28 the cheapest source of calories and protein in Uganda and Rwanda, and the cheapest source of protein in Tanzania. In Latin America and Africa, the demand for beans is tied to food markets, both rural and urban, and small-scale bean farmers are increasingly producing for the market. As women are the primary producers of beans in many regions of Africa, bean marketing represents an important source of income for the family. Beans are not, however, simply a food for the poorest of the poor. Per capita bean consumption in the United States rose from 2.6 kg/year in the period 1976-1978 to 3.4 kg/year in 1991 according to USD A data. Increased consumption reflects a nutritional move away from high-fat animal products to low-fat, high-fibre products like beans. Major research options for improving bean productivity in Latin America and Africa have focused on public sector breeding efforts. There is little private sector interest in bean seed production outside Argentina, Brazil and the United States. International research on beans at CIAT has traditionally concentrated on improved resistance to diseases and pests, and more recently on tolerance to drought and low soil fertility, and improved yield potential. Improved, CIAT-based varieties are grown over 800,000 ha, most of which is in Latin America where CIAT has been working longest. Nearly 40% of the bean production area in Central America is now planted to varieties resistant to the devastating bean golden mosaic virus. In Brazil more than 200,000 ha of CIAT-based new bean varieties are being grown in four states alone. Even in Africa, with more recent CIAT involvement, nearly 45 % of the Rwandan farmers (primarily women) were growing improved climbing bean prior to the civil war. In recent years, international bean research led by CIAT began to seek non- genetic solutions to difficult production problems, in addition to the development of improved varieties. Pilot integrated pest management studies in the Andean region of South America has been successful in reducing pesticide applications by more than 50% in targeted regions. The use of climbing beans in Rwanda, and more recently in Uganda and Kenya is giving greater support to agroforestry efforts as stake production has become a new market business in these regions. In part of Uganda and Kenya, farmers are seeing advantages in use of green manure fertilizers to combat not only declining soil fertility, but associated problems with root rots and bean stem maggots. Additional work in the Andean region addresses problems of land degradation and soil nutrient depletion through building on existing farmer knowledge and using farmer participatory approaches. In the area of building national programme capacity for bean research, CIAT pioneered a strategy for grouping countries into regional research networks to facilitate the development and transfer of new technologies in a more efficient and economical manner. The first regional network (PROFRUOL) was begun in 1978 in Central America, followed by three networks (RESAPAC, EABRN, and SADC-Beans) in Africa (during 1984-1986), and in the Andean region of South America (PROFRIZA) in 1987. The initial coordination of the networks was managed by CIAT, but as the networks grew stronger and regionally established, the coordination responsibilities were devolved to the Annex III - Page 29 region. By mid-1996, all the regional networks will be locally managed. CIAT remains as a full research partner in the networks. 1.4.6. Pigeonpea Pigeonpea is widely grown by subsistence farmers in the warm semi-arid and sub-humid tropics. It is often grown on poor soils and with few inputs. It is an important food in India, and is popular in parts of East Africa and Central America. The seeds are used whole, dehulled or as a flour; and in the Caribbean and South America, immature seeds and pods are used as a vegetable. The woody stem is valuable as firewood, thatch and fencing, and the leaves are an important source of nitrogen for the soil. World production of dry seed is about 2.7 million t, most of which is grown in developing countries. The crop is an important source of protein (20% of mature seed) and Vitamin B. India accounts for about 91% of world production, followed by sub- Saharan Africa (6%). The remainder comes from Latin America and the Caribbean, and from Asia. There is limited international trade. Agro-industry has developed for canning green pigeonpea for export from Ecuador and Dominican Republic, and for dehulling and split pea (dhal) production for export from Malawi and Kenya. Average developing country yields are about 700 kg/ha, but vary from 500-600 kg/ha in central and southern India, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia to 1000-1, 200 kg/ha in northern India and Central America when the crop is grown as a sole crop. The main production constraints are variable yields associated with abiotic stress, diseases and pests and subsistence production conditions. The crop’s potential for wider use in semi-arid areas with high temperatures and poor soils is considerable, as a complement to phaseolus bean or cowpea in the drier and more marginal areas of Eastern and Southern and equatorial Africa, and Central America. Countries in Asia and in Eastern and Southern Africa have shown an active interest in exploiting pigeonpea’s multipurpose potential in farming systems where drought and heat tolerance are important considerations. Globally, traditional pigeonpea farming systems have developed around medium- and long-duration cultivars (maturity in 180-280 days), often inter-cropped or mixed with cereals such as maize, sorghum and pearl millet. This cropping system has contributed to the sustainability of farming systems and to intensification of land and moisture use in rainfed areas. ICRISAT has collaborated with the national programmes in collection, characterization, and conservation of the biodiversity of landraces and wild related species. Source of disease resistance and tolerance to insect pests have been identified, and are being used by the NARS for genetic enhancement of medium- and long-duration pigeonpea. The potential of this material for agro-forestry and alley cropping on degraded land resources, and for crop-livestock systems, is clear. Development of short-duration (100-150 days to maturity) and short-statured pigeonpea types by ICRISAT in collaboration with the NARS has greatly broadened the adaptation of pigeonpea into new production environments, and significantly increased productivity per unit area and time. Recent adoption of this material in the intensive rice- wheat cropping system areas, is contributing to the sustainability of the cereal productivity. There has been widespread adoption of disease resistant short-duration cultivars in drought prone area farmers in peninsular India, and there is significant Annex III - Page 30 potential in other countries. Development by ICRISAT of the first hybrid pigeonpea variety and hybrid seed production technology has led to release of hybrid cultivars by the private and public sectors in India. Improved technology for hybrid seed production of cytoplasmic male sterility is in development by a collaborative research network with the NARS and private industry. Introgression of genes from medium and long duration landraces, and from the wild relatives using transformation, embryo rescue and tissue culture, is designed to broaden the genetic base and resolve the major biotic and abiotic constraints of short duration pigeonpea. Active research collaboration with the national systems is used to achieve spillover of technologies and materials internationally. 1.4.7. Soybean Soybean was originally domesticated in China, and is now cultivated throughout East and South-East Asia, the Americas (particularly the USA and Brazil) and to a very limited extent in sub-Saharan Africa and West Asia. In the northern hemisphere, its cultivation now extends from the tropics to 52°N. Soybean has high protein (38%) and fat (18%) contents. The crop’s main use is for oil and protein products in the food industry. The residue after oil extraction is used for flour, protein products and animal feed. Although soybean is an important food crop and an inexpensive source of protein and Vitamin B in East Asia, efforts to introduce it as a food crop elsewhere have met with limited success. However, it is gaining importance in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. For example, in Nigeria, the use of soybean flour has become very popular. It is used to fortify traditional foods and in most dishes requires no additional labour or cooking time. The final products are highly acceptable and the women who have been exposed to the appropriate methods to incorporate soybean into traditional foods now use it almost every day. This has had a major impact on the nutrition and health of children in both rural and urban areas. While Nigeria currently serves as the best example in Africa of a country where soybean is commonly used as a food, it is also gaining in popularity in Uganda, Zambia, Cameroon, Benin, Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire. In these countries today, soybean is no longer considered to be a crop that is unpalatable and difficult to process. About 56% of the global area harvested is in developing countries. Tropical and subtropical South America produces 63% of the developing country share (61% of this from Brazil, which has a large export trade), China 24%, temperate South America 14%, and southeast Asia 4 %. The crop provides nearly 5 % of protein consumption in China and southeast Asia. Its fat contribution to diet is 20% in Brazil, 6-7% in China, India and Thailand, and 4-5% in Indonesia. Latin America and the Caribbean produces 36 million t of soybean annually. In the past decade the region’s area under soybean increased by about 1.4% per year while yields increased at 2%, reaching 2.1 t/ha (more than the world average of 2.0 t/ha). Among the major constraints limiting production in Latin America and the Caribbean are acid soils, aluminium toxicity, photoperiodism, and pests and diseases. Yields vary considerably, from 1.1 t/ha in sub-Saharan Africa to 2.1 t/ha in Latin America and the Caribbean. Demand for oilseeds in developing countries is expected to grow at 3.7% annually until the year 2010, and production will need to increase accordingly. In Annex ni - Page 31 sub-Saharan Africa, vegetable oil is already in short supply, and several countries of the region imported substantial quantities of both soybean cake and soybean oil during the 1980s. Most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean also have a deficit in vegetable oil. Furthermore, soybean has substantial potential as a source of livestock feed, particularly for poultry. In sub-Saharan Africa locally produced soybean is used as a raw material in large and medium scale oil mills especially in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Uganda, Nigeria, Ghana and Còte d’Ivoire. Most of these mills began using soybean during the past six years. Soybean research has been under way for some time outside the CGIAR System, with AVRDC working on both vegetable and grain type soybean breeding and production with a focus on Asia and INTSOY working on processing and utilization. The System’s own work is based in sub-Saharan Africa, and has progressed well in both crop improvement and postharvest processing and utilization. Breeding lines have been developed, tested by NARS, released and are now being grown by farmers in Nigeria, Ghana, Zaire and Uganda. These varieties have the ability to nodulate with naturally occurring rhizobia, improved seed longevity and improved levels of resistance to pod shattering and the major pests and diseases. The main objectives of future research related to crop production is to develop soybean varieties that give a maximum contribution to the productivity and sustainability of the cereal-based cropping systems of the moist savannas of Africa. Major traits which are under improvement are the ability to cause "suicidal germination" of seed of Striga hermonthica, nitrogen fixation and phosphorus use efficiency. Cropping systems research will be conducted to develop appropriate technologies to increase productivity and sustainability including resistance to pests, diseases and pod shattering. Another objective of future research is to develop a better understanding of the relatively new disease, Red Leaf Blotch, that is found only in Africa and to the develop appropriate disease management strategies. The major thrust of the processing and utilization research in the future is to work with more African NARS using the successful research and technology transfer methods that were developed with NARS in Nigeria. In 1986 TAC recommended that research support for soybean be increased, with efforts continuing to focus on sub-Saharan Africa, and this is still justifiable. The needs of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean were being successfully met by strong national programmes. This recommendation was based on: the crop’s importance, given increasing oilseed demand in sub-Saharan Africa and globally; the high level of interest in and apparent potential for the crop in sub-Saharan Africa; the high pay off from the modest research effort to date; and the excellent potential for developing solutions to some of the more important production problems in the tropics. In 1992, TAC again recommended that higher priority and more resources be allocated to soybean research in the CGIAR. Annex III - Page 32 1.5 Oil Crops 1.5.1. Coconut The coconut palm is a pan-tropical crop, grown on approximately 9.3 million ha in 82 countries. Many of the producing countries are small islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and also the Caribbean. Coconut is both their primary subsistence crop and their only significant source of export earnings. There are few, if any, alternative crops which can substitute for coconut in these countries. Coconut is the major tree-crop component in several agroforestry systems throughout the world, although its wide use in home gardens is probably not reflected in official production statistics. At least 96% of the total world production of coconut comes from smallholdings with about 70% of the crop consumed in the producing countries. Coconut can be grown in harsh environments such as atolls and tolerates high salinity, drought and poor soils. It plays an important role in sustaining often fragile ecosystems in island and coastal communities and is used as a source of food, drink, fuel, animal feed and shelter. It is also a cash crop, used to produce many items for sale at either the local, national or international level. The main internationally traded products are copra, coconut oil, copra meal and desiccated coconut. In 1986 TAC identified coconut as a priority commodity for support through international research. Following that, the CGIAR requested TAC to explore the desirability of establishing an international research initiative on coconut, and the form such an initiative might take. Subsequent studies undertaken on behalf of TAC identified several constraints and opportunities in coconut production which could be addressed through this research effort. There are four major constraints to increased coconut production in developing countries: the low productivity of many coconut trees, due to old age and poor nutrition; the failure of many replanting programmes; fluctuating productivity due to variable environmental conditions; and inefficient handling and processing, with low farm-gate prices to smallholders. The productivity of the crop can be increased by the use of locally adapted, high-yielding, pest- and disease-tolerant varieties in replanting or new planting schemes. To increase the productivity of existing plantations it would be necessary to apply better agronomic practices, including the control of diseases, insects and weeds and also the use of fertilizers, plus identify and promote profitable and sustainable intercropping systems. Furthermore, there is a need to develop improved methods of handling and processing coconut, and to further diversify the coconut products traded. Coconut breeding in several countries over the past 30 years has demonstrated that several improved varieties and hybrids are capable of yielding up to 3-6 t copra/ha/year under favourable conditions and this could potentially be tapped to increase the average world yields of 0.5 t/ha/year. Progress has also been made in identifying the causal agents of diseases of previously unknown etiology, such as cadang-cadang disease in the Philippines and lethal yellowing disease in the Caribbean and further nutritional studies have shown that coconut responds well to fertilizer application, particularly Annex III - Page 33 potassium and chloride. Intercropping and the grazing of cattle under trees have shown that the total productivity of coconut lands can be improved, without threatening the long­ term sustainability of the system. These findings suggest that a well organized and adequately funded international research effort could yield a high pay off. The long-term nature of coconut research and the likely benefits to smallholder producers, make coconut particularly suitable for an international research initiative. The TAC/CGIAR identified priority research areas for such an initiative to be: germplasm conservation and improvement; disease and pest control; sustainability of coconut-based farming systems; postharvest handling and processing; and the socioeconomics of coconut production. It is to be noted, however, that in a number of countries, research on coconut is funded by the private sector through levies on producers. To enhance the sustainability of coconut production, there is an urgent need to promote the effective conservation of coconut genetic resources and their efficient utilization in breeding programmes. Thus among the five priority areas for international collaboration, germplasm conservation and improvement was identified as the research activity to be initially supported. Upon the recommendation of 15 coconut-producing countries, and the support of the TAC/CGIAR and its donors, in 1993 IPGRI established the International Coconut Genetic Resources Network (COGENT) as part of its programme. The main objective of COGENT is to strengthen national programmes in the conservation and utilization of coconut genetic resources and establish the foundation for collaboration on the broader aspects of coconut research and development. The networking approach was selected because it reduces duplication of work, encourages sharing of limited resources and promotes complementation and synergy of research activities in national programmes and advanced research institutions. The current research priorities of COGENT include: the development of an international coconut genetic resources database to enhance dissemination of genetic resources data to breeders worldwide; collecting to secure germplasm in areas which are threatened by genetic erosion and to fill up gaps in national collections; conservation in national and regional field genebanks; germplasm evaluation to identify suitable varieties for farmers; development of other complementary conservation methods and molecular methods for assessing genetic diversity and promoting safe germplasm movement. To complement these efforts, a strong training programme is being pursued to increase the number and upgrade the skills of researchers in national programmes. The future research priorities include: application of research results to promote efficient genetic diversity assessment, safe germplasm movement, and effective conservation and exchange; plus strategic utilization of coconut genetic resources to support the development of varieties and hybrids with high productivity and adaptation to biotic and abiotic stresses. In the near future, research projects will also address users’ perspective to promote multi-purpose uses and increased competitiveness of the coconut and the gender issues related to sustainable germplasm conservation and utilization. Annex III - Page 34 1.5.2. Groundnut About 21.7 million ha are cultivated to groundnut in the world, of which 13.8 million ha are in Asia (India 8.5 million ha; China 3.6 million ha), 6.8 million ha in sub- Saharan Africa, and 0.5 million ha in North and Central America. The production area in WANA is less than 100,000 ha. Groundnut is grown under a wide range of environmental conditions in areas between 40°S and 40°N of the equator. Most of the crop is produced where average rainfall is 600 to 1,200 mm and mean daily temperatures are more than 20°C. The main use of seed is as a source of edible oil, but the high oil (45- 50%) and protein (26%) contents also make it an important food crop. Since the mid- 1970s, edible groundnuts have increased in importance in both domestic consumption and export trade. Large quantities are consumed in the areas of production. As a combined oilseed and food crop, groundnut ranks second only to soybean. It is a valuable source of B Vitamins (particularly niacin which is low in cereals), and the cake after extraction of the oil is a high protein animal feed. With proper processing, the cake also is utilized for making products such as biscuits and baby or invalid foods. The green haulms provide good quality fodder and can be made into hay. In drier parts of the semi-arid tropics, groundnut fodder is valued as highly as pod yield. Groundnut is a valuable cash crop for millions of small-scale farmers in the semi-arid tropics. It generates employment on the farm and in marketing, transportation, and processing. It is a valuable source of foreign exchange when exported. It is an important component of the fat content of diets in India, Myanmar, and China, and of the protein content of diets throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Asia contributes 71.6% to the annual world groundnut production (FAO, 1994). China is the largest producer (34.1%), and India the second largest producer (29.5%). Sub-Saharan Africa produces 18.6%, Central America and South America 2.6% of the world production. WANA accounts for 0.5% of production and Europe and Oceania contribute less than 0.2%. About two-thirds of the world groundnut production is used for oil extraction. China, the USA, and Argentina are the leading exporters of the crop. In India, most of the crop is processed for oil, with the oilseed cake used mainly for animal feed. In sub-Saharan Africa groundnut is a major food crop and only part of the produce is marketed. Average productivity is highest in the region of South America (1.83 t ha'1), followed by Asia (1.48 t ha'1), and Africa (0.78 t ha1). In most countries of Africa and many countries of Asia, average productivity remains below the world average of 1.31 t ha'1. China has shown a dramatic increase in productivity (2.69 t ha'1), while the average yield in India remains below 1.0 t ha'1 in spite of marginal improvements in recent years. The main constraints to productivity in Asia and Africa are diseases and insect pests, unpredictable and unreliable rainfall, low soil fertility, lack of improved agronomic practices and production technology, lack of technology-responsive cultivars adapted to local conditions, low financial inputs and lack of suitable small-scale farm implements and of the infrastructure to supply quality seed of the currently available improved cultivars. Aflatoxin contamination in the field and during storage reduces the marketability of the produce. Annex III - Page 35 Foliar diseases (rust, early leafspot, and late leafspot; all world wide), virus diseases (groundnut rosette virus and peanut clump virus in Africa; peanut stripe virus and peanut bud necrosis virus in Asia), aflatoxin contamination of the produce (particularly in the semi-arid tropics), foliar and soil pests (leaf miner, Spodoptera and white grub in Asia; millipedes, termites and aphids in Africa), nematodes (in Asia and Africa), drought, and low soil fertility are priority research targets within the target production systems of the semi-arid tropics. There is close research collaboration in Asia and Africa between ICRISAT and the national programmes and advanced research institutions. Impact at the farm level is reflected by release of improved cultivars - 26 by 16 national programmes outside India; 19 other varieties undergoing on-farm testing in 8 countries; 17 cultivars in India, including 4 developed from segregating material supplied by ICRISAT. Improved packages of cultivation practices have been developed in collaboration with national programmes in India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. In Malawi, a large scale on-farm demonstration programme has been launched in collaboration with an NGO and the national programme to popularize CG 7 cultivar among the farmers. A strategic research commitment by the CGIAR to groundnut improvement is justified by the crop’s important dietary contribution, its importance as a cash crop and income generator, its potential in meeting part of the global demand for vegetable oils, its secondary value as animal feed and fodder, its contribution to the sustainability of mixed cropping systems; and the evidence that major production constraints can be resolved through research. In 1992, TAC recommended that the priority given to groundnut research be increased moderately. 1.5.6. Vegetables Many vegetables are grown in developing countries, and the kinds vary considerably from place to place, with strong social preferences dictating the choice of species used. Vegetables provide a valuable source of income to producers near large urban areas. As a group, they are high-yielding and are well adapted to small-scale operations if markets are close, and to large-scale operations as infrastructure improves and transportation and cold storage become available. All income groups need and prefer them as supplementary foods, and demand in developing countries is expected to increase by 3.4% a year throughout the 1990s. Of the current production of 333 million t in the developing regions, Asia accounts for 72 %, West Asia-North Africa for 17 %, Latin America and the Caribbean for 7 % and sub-Saharan Africa for 5 %. Production during the past two decades has been growing at 3.2%. The four most important vegetables in terms of area harvested in the developing regions are tomato (1.6 million ha), onion (1.3 million ha), peppers (0.9 million ha) and cabbage (0.8 million ha). Inclusion of a vegetable initiative in the CGIAR System would complete the commodity portfolio from a nutritional point of view. The major constraints are diseases and insect pests, and there is much scope for varietal improvement. Poor marketing facilities are also a constraint given the perishability of many vegetables. Modest Annex III - Page 36 increases in production can lead to temporary gluts, and a major research need in many areas is to extend the production period. In 1986 TAC indicated that highest priority among new ventures within the CGIAR System should be assigned to research on vegetables. Research should be directed at the potential for increased vegetable production in both tropical and subtropical areas, with special emphasis on indigenous tropical vegetables. In 1988 TAC recommended that the CGIAR create and support an international entity which would help establish and coordinate regional collaborative vegetable research networks in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. CGIAR support was to be limited initially to tomato, pepper, onion, and leafy green vegetables. However, TAC also recommended that studies and consultations with relevant institutions be carried out to determine the importance of other commodities such as okra and eggplant, and to identify the major constraints to production increases and marketing, as well as their research ability. The new entity would then have the flexibility to phase new research topics into its programme as necessary. TAC further recommended that the highest priority be assigned to supporting research for tropical environments, with activities for subtropical environments to be initiated once those for tropical environments had become operational. Two important operational considerations in TAC’s deliberations were the integration of this new initiative with the System’s current efforts on commodities which either are vegetables (green bean, vegetable cowpea, potato, sweet potato and soybean) or produce vegetables as byproducts (bean leaves and cassava leaves); and the complementarity of a CGIAR initiative with the work of AVRDC. In 1990 TAC recommended that vegetables were an appropriate subject matter for inclusion in the expanded CGIAR effort, and that collaborative vegetable research networks in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean be implemented. 1.5.7. Tropical Forages Grasses and legumes are an intermediate product that contribute directly to livestock production and indirectly to more sustainable land use. Among the major agricultural commodities, the gross value of production of meat and milk from ruminants ranks 1st in Latin America and WANA regions, 2nd in Sub-Saharan Africa and 4th in Asia. The major constraint to production is the quantity and quality of feed. Forages are the main feed source in Latin America, WANA and Sub-Saharan Africa, while in Asia, forages are used to supplement crop residues. Tropical grasses and legumes are also used widely for uses other than feed. There is widespread use of legumes as ground covers in tree and fruit plantations, as green manure crops and in natural fallows for soil improvement and weed control. Grasses and shrub legumes are used as barriers for controlling soil erosion. Pastures are used in rotations with crops with the aim of improving soil biological, chemical and physical properties in addition to providing feed for livestock. Annex III - Page 37 Forage improvement programmes based on collection and evaluation of wild grass and legume species for direct use as animal feed or for soil improvement have identified a number of genera of commercial importance for the subhumid and humid tropics. These include, among the grasses - Andropogon, Brachiaria, Cenchrus, Panicum, Paspalum and Urochloa, among the herbaceous legumes, perennial Arachis, Centrosema, Desmodium, Pueraria and Stylosanthes, and among the shrub legumes - Calliandra, Cratylia, Gliricidia, Leucaena and Sesbania. The introduction of selected wild accessions of Andropogon gayanus and Brachiaria spp. into the native savannas of Latin America has resulted in a 12-16 fold increase in livestock productivity with improved grasses being used over 20 to 80 percent of the farm area. Monitoring of well managed grass and grass-legume pastures has demonstrated beneficial effects on soil properties. Nevertheless, legumes such as Arachis pintoi, Centrosema spp. and Stylosanthes spp. have found wider adoption as cover crops than for improved legume. Limitations have emerged as some of these natural species have become widely adopted and enhancement programmes based on traditional recombination and selection have successfully been carried out to overcome them. They have focused on overcoming specific limitations such as susceptibility to insect (spittlebug in Brachiaria spp.) or disease tolerance (anthracnose in Stylosanthes pp.) attack while maintaining adaptation to infertile soils and high feed value. The present focus of research is to develop forage components for specific agro-ecosystem niches in Latin America and South East Asia where a demand has been identified, e.g. ground covers for tree crops, legumes for fallow improvement on hillsides, short-term pastures for crop-livestock systems, dry season fodders for dual-purpose cattle and multi-purpose grasses and legumes for intensive farming systems. 2. LIVESTOCK (Still to be updated to take into account TAC and CG deliberations in 1993-94) 2.1. Background Livestock and their products contribute about 29% to the total value of production of agriculture, forestry and fisheries in developing countries. In sub-Saharan Africa their share amounts to 19%, in Asia to 28%, in West Asia-North Africa to 35% and in Latin America and the Caribbean to 38%. However, these figures under-estimate the substantial contribution that livestock frequently make to crop production through draught power and manure. Livestock products provide 6% of calorie intake and 19% of dietary protein consumed in developing countries. Animal products are the only reliable sources of Vitamin B12, zinc and iron. Meat and milk are highly income-elastic products. Their consumption increases with incomes and urbanization. Given economic growth and technological improvements in developing countries, livestock’s contribution to agricultural production can therefore be expected to increase. Annex III - Page 38 Domestic animals enhance the economic viability and sustainability of farming systems. They diversify production and management options, increase total farm production and income, provide year-round employment, and provide insurance in times of need. Sales of livestock products provide funds for purchasing critically needed crop inputs and for financing farm investments. Livestock often form the major capital reserve of farming households. Among domestic livestock species, ruminants have special importance because they convert into edible products crop residues, byproducts, weeds and other biomass that cannot be directly consumed as food by humans. Ruminants provide the only practical means for using vast areas of natural grasslands in regions where low, unreliable or seasonally limited rainfall combined with poor, acid soils make crop production impractical. In crop producing regions, traction raises crop productivity while manure enriches the soil. In addition, ruminants provide farmers with the economic incentive required to plant nitrogen-fixing forage crops and maintain pastures in crop rotations, which reduce erosion, conserve soil moisture and enhance soil fertility. The key to enhancing these positive aspects of livestock production is good management. It should also be noted that poor management, and especially overstocking, can cause degradation. Population growth in semi-arid rangeland areas is exacerbating these problems. Expansion of grasslands is the major factor that leads to deforestation in Latin America and the Caribbean. In general, the returns from smallholder livestock development projects in developing countries have been low (World Bank, 1985). This further highlighted the need for research to expand the knowledge base for more effective livestock development planning in the future. Although valuable progress has been made, to date pay offs from CGIAR investments in livestock research have been slow to materialize. 2.2. Regional Importance Cattle are especially important in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in the warm semi-arid tropics and cool tropics of sub-Saharan Africa and India (for milk). Sheep and/or goats are important in West Asia-North Africa, East and Southern Africa, semi-arid West Africa and temperate South America. Although small ruminants provide only a small proportion of the global production of meat and milk, the aggregate data mask their importance in some regions. It is estimated that they provide 30% of the meat consumed in West Asia-North Africa and 20% of that consumed in sub-Saharan Africa. Small ruminants are also important generators of cash income. The first major thrust of the CGIAR System’s research programme on improving ruminant production has been to enhance nutrition through improved management practices and the development of better pastures, forages, and other feed sources. Inadequate year-round feed supply is the major constraint to ruminant production in many areas of Latin America a the Caribbean, West Asia-North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Annex III - Page 39 The second major research thrust is to control ruminant diseases, particularly tsetse-transmitted trypanosomiasis, which is a major constraint in large parts of sub- Saharan Africa, and a form of theileriosis, East Coast fever, a major constraint in East and Southern Africa. This research is of a basic and strategic nature. Progress being made in understanding the biology of these diseases, the nature of host defence mechanisms and novel means of vaccination provides a basis for developing improved methods of control for other economically important livestock diseases worldwide. The CGIAR has focused its research on the most important ruminants in developing countries, i.e. cattle, sheep and goats and on sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the CGIAR’s resources for livestock research. However, although located in sub-Saharan Africa, ILRAD has a worldwide mandate for animal disease research. About 21 % of CGIAR investment in livestock research is allocated to CIAT in Latin America and the Caribbean, for pasture improvement research, and 11% to ICARDA in West Asia-North Africa, for the improvement of forage production systems. In general, CGIAR-supported livestock research has not yet led to significant farm-level productivity increases, but CIAT’s technologies for pasture improvement on the acid soils of Latin America and the Caribbean are gradually being adopted, and ILRAD may be on the verge of a breakthrough with recent progress in the development of new vaccines to provide immunity to theileriosis. TAC has recognized the importance of the domesticated buffalo in areas to which it is climatically adapted. However, since 85% of buffalo are found in only five countries of Asia, TAC’s position to date has been that the research needs for this species could best be met through regional efforts. Similarly, TAC has recognized the importance of the camel in arid and semi-arid environments. Again, TAC feels that the research needs for these species could best be met through network activities or by regional institutions. TAC considers that the CGIAR has no comparative advantage to initiate activities on buffalo or camel research. Poultry and swine account for almost half the monetary and nutritive value of livestock in developing countries. However, TAC has not considered their research needs to be of sufficiently high priority to justify their inclusion in the form of commodity improvement programmes in CGIAR activities. Evidence from Asia and from Latin America and the Caribbean indicates that, as the demand for chicken and pigmeat increases, more intensive production systems are adopted, and technology from developed and other developing countries is rapidly and effectively applied in these systems. Both the poultry and pig sectors also benefit substantially from private sector research. However, consideration needs to be given to the production of feed crops to meet the rapid growth of demand caused by the expansion of poultry and swine production as population and urbanization increase in the next 20 to 30 years. Demand for livestock products is rising rapidly in response to urbanization, population growth and income gains, while yields of both meat and milk are low compared with those of developed countries. Low productivity is associated with a number of interacting factors: poor nutrition and acute seasonal feed deficiencies, limited availability of water in arid and semi-arid areas, poor management, disease, and low genetic potential as feed and health constraints are removed. In some regions, sub- Annex III - Page 40 Saharan Africa in particular, the low productivity of cattle may also result from producers placing greater value on the number of animals owned than on their output of meat or milk, since animals are a means of storing wealth for future expenditures and as an insurance against drought. Overall, there is a significant need for research to increase ruminant production in developing countries. 2.3. Livestock Research in sub-Saharan Africa As already noted, CGIAR efforts in livestock research have focused on sub- Saharan Africa. At present, livestock production systems in this region are predominantly subsistence oriented, and concentrated in areas that are tsetse free or only lightly infested. The majority of livestock is found on mixed smallholder farms, which account for approximately 60% of the region’s ruminant animal units. The productivity of livestock in terms of milk and meat in sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest of any world region. Nonetheless, it has been amply demonstrated that sub-Saharan Africa can produce meat and milk at prices that are competitive with imports, provided that markets are not severely disrupted by dumping, artificial currency exchange rates, and other macroeconomic distortions. Milk accounts for 26% of the value of sub-Saharan livestock production, beef for 37%, sheep and goat meat for 14%, pigmeat for 5%, and poultry for 8%. During the past two decades, increases in production have resulted largely from the expansion of herds and flocks, rather than from improved animal productivity. The major constraints to improved productivity are natural resource limitations; technical barriers, such as inadequate feed supply, diseases, poor genotypes and inadequate management; and socioeconomic factors, such as inadequate government policies and marketing opportunities, and the lack of infrastructure. Despite these constraints, there appear to be substantial opportunities for increasing livestock productivity throughout the region. It is felt that sub-Saharan African products can successfully compete with other foods in local markets and with imports. Among the region’s highly diverse agroecologies, the subhumid tropics (AEZ 2) the higher rainfall areas of the semi-arid tropics (AEZ 1), and the cool tropics (AEZ 4) appear to have the greatest development potential for livestock production, particularly through integrated crop-livestock systems. In these systems, advances in dairy production, animal traction, poultry and pig production offer particularly promising opportunities for productivity and income gains. In the drier parts of the arid and semi- arid areas, pastoral systems continue to support a large number of ruminant livestock. The opportunities for technical intervention in such systems appear limited, but there is some potential for encouraging offtake through more favourable government policies, especially with regard to prices. In the humid tropics (AEZ 3), the major stresses are pests and diseases, especially trypanosomiasis and dermatophilosis. Where pastures are established, the Annex III - Page 41 control of weeds presents a special difficulty. These problems are likely to constrain production in this zone, at least in the short term. Cattle will continue as the predominant source of meat, milk and traction in sub- Saharan Africa. The importance of small ruminants, poultry and pigs is expected to increase rapidly during the next two decades. Camels will remain important in arid areas, donkeys and horses in the cool tropics, and wildlife for tourism and game/bush meat in arid and semi-arid zones. CGIAR efforts should focus on four principal research areas: feed supply, animal health, genetics, and sustainable production systems, particularly for the warm subhumid, warm semi-arid and highland (cool tropics) zones. 2.3.1. Feed Supply Highest priority should be given to improving the quality of animal feed and its year-round availability. To support the intensification and spread of smallholder mixed crop-livestock farming systems, research on the production and feed value of forages, multipurpose trees, crop residues, cereals, root crops, grain legumes and less conventional feeds is needed. Greater efforts are required to enhance crop-livestock interactions. For example, as shortage of feed is the major constraint to increasing livestock productivity, the latter could benefit substantially from an increase in crop productivity. 2.3.2. Animal Health The vector-borne diseases, trypanosomiasis, theileriosis, cowdriosis, babesiosis, anaplasmosis, and dermatophilosis, as a group constitute the most serious constraint to increased animal production in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing chemical control methods are often too costly for widespread adoption, and are also unsustainable due to the development of resistance to drugs and pesticides. Cost considerations deter the development, testing, licensing and introduction of new chemical products for use in sub- Saharan Africa. Continued strategic research on host-parasite relationships and control methods is necessary to provide strategies for overcoming the reduced productivity caused by this complex of diseases. As animal agriculture systems intensify, strategic and applied research will be needed to resolve animal health problems related to intensification. 2.3.3. Genetics Sub-Saharan Africa has valuable indigenous livestock germplasm that needs to be identified, characterized, preserved and utilized to enhance the productivity of animals while retaining their adaptation to the region’s environments. Strategic research to identify and manipulate genes that confer disease resistance, physiological adaptation to the environment, and productivity traits will grow in importance. Advances here will have global application. Annex III - Page 42 2.3.4. Sustainable Production Systems Research is needed to optimize the contribution of livestock to sustainable farming systems in each agroecological zone, particularly in the warm subhumid zone where production potential is high and the tsetse fly is retreating. Farming systems research must take into account agronomic, animal production, epidemiological and ecological factors. Policy research should give particular attention to macroeconomic issues related to natural resource use and the infrastructure needed to support the efficient development of animal agriculture. The ability of governments to establish policies that foster the development of sustainable land use systems is hampered by serious deficiencies in livestock data. Databases on livestock, organized by agroecological zone, must be improved and expanded. National governments, the development community and the CGIAR should evaluate needs and develop improved methods for surveying and analyzing the current and potential role of livestock by agroecological zone in sub-Saharan African farming systems, especially by applying the new technologies of modelling and analysis provided by geographical information systems. 3. FORESTRY AND AGROFORESTRY 3.1. Background Tropical forests cover only one-seventh of the earth’s land area, yet their importance is greater than this implies. In addition to wood, forests supply many non- timber products including foods and beverages, fibres, resins, building materials, fodder, ornamentals, medicines and fuel. More importantly, they provide environmental services, notably watershed protection, climate regulation, protection and improvement of soils, and provision of habitat for wild plants and animals. A wide range of cultural, spiritual and recreational benefits are also derived from tropical forests. They are an important component of the earth’s global carbon budget and the repository of perhaps half of all species of living things. Thus the potential of forests to contribute to rural and urban welfare, economic growth, sustainable agricultural development and global environmental functions is vast. Yet it is constrained by accelerating deforestation and degradation of forest lands. About 15.4 million hectares of tropical forests and woodlands were converted to other uses or destroyed each year between 1980 and 1990 (0.8% p.a.); 4.6 million hectares of this was tropical rain forests. By 1990, 1,756 million hectares of tropical forests remained; 52% in Latin America, 30% in Sub-Saharan Africa and 18% in Asia-Pacific. The pressures on the remaining forests to provide ever-increasing volumes of timber, fuelwood, non-timber products and land for agriculture and other uses continue to grow - seemingly exponentially. Simultaneously, the importance of tropical forests to the well-being of the rural poor, in regulating the global climate, and as a reservoir of biodiversity is increasingly recognised. The need to do more with less, while at the same Annex III - Page 43 time conserving a substantial area of tropical forests as a heritage for all people, is a fundamental problem which must be faced if these forests are to be successfully managed for the sustainable production of multiple goods and services. Two decades ago, the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimated that slash-and-bum agriculture was practised on 30% of the arable soils of the world and provided sustenance for 250 million of the world’s poorest people. It has been suggested that the 200 to 500 million slash-and-bum farmers account for about thirds of global forest clearance annually (Myers 1994). Slash-and-bum agriculture remains the dominant land use at the margins of the humid tropical forests, and empirical evidence suggests that the numbers of people engaged in slash-and-bum agriculture may have doubled. Agroforestry technologies have the potential to provide sustainable alternatives to the practice of shifting cultivation and to ameliorate the secondary forest fallows and grasslands that follow in its wake. In sub-humid savannas and woodlands and the semi- arid tropics, they can also play a decisive role in increasing the agricultural productivity and sustainability of small-scale farming systems. In these agroecological zones, agroforestry technologies can prevent soil erosion, bring a halt to deteriorating soil fertility, and provide food, fuelwood, building material, fodder and numerous other valuable products that have the potential for generating additional income. 3.2. Current Status of Forestry and Agroforestry Research 3.2.1. Forestry Research Investment in forestry research and the human resources available to conduct research in developing countries are both low in comparison to the agricultural sector and in comparison to the value of goods and services derived from forests. Pardey et al (1988), however, assert that “comparison...between the share of crop research in agricultural research and crop production’s share of value-added in agriculture (AgGDP)....[indicates] that forestry research absorbs a larger share of research capacity than agriculture” However, this analysis ignores the fact that a large proportion of research effort in forestry is not directed towards outputs or outcomes that can be readily captured by crude aggregated indicators such as AgGDP, nor does AgGDP capture the many and varied ‘non-tradeable’ goods and services provided by forests. In addition, the number of forestry researchers active in research areas that have a direct ‘commodity orientation’ in developing countries would be less than 50% of the research cadre. Reliable current estimates for regional / global investment in forestry research are not available and therefore the summary presented by TAC (1994) remains, in the absence of more recent information, the most reliable source: “Expenditure on forestry research in developing countries in 1981 amounted to US$ 186 million, of which 60% was allocated to Asia, 21% to sub-Saharan Africa and 19% to Latin America and the Caribbean (Mergen et al, 1988). More recent data are not available, but Annex III - Page 44 if past trends are an indication, current annual expenditures may be in excess of US$ 200 million. Developing countries account for only 12% of total investment in forestry research world-wide. Forestry research intensity in developing countries is considerable less than one-tenth of agricultural research intensity. Forest research expenditures as a percentage of the value of production have been estimated at 0.019 for low-income developing countries, 0.059 for middle-income developing countries and 0.070 for semi-industrialized countries. The corresponding ratios for agricultural research expenditures were estimated at 0.451, 0.863 and 0.816 respectively (Mergen et al, 1988). (TAC 1994) Current statistics that assess the number of forestry research institutes and qualified researchers within them are available. FAO (1995) surveyed 764 forestry research organisation in 112 countries, 7% of which were located in Sub-Saharan Africa, 3.8% in West Asia North Africa, 13.4% in Asia Pacific and 14.7% in Latin America and the Caribbean. Manpower, in terms of graduate staff in these institutions, does not follow the same pattern: more researchers (25% of the global total) are now located in the Asia Pacific developing countries. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Universities represent only 14% of the forestry related research Institutes, the figures for WANA, AP and LAC are 10.3%, 20.5% and 31.3% respectively. The following table provides summary data. Table 1: Summary of Forestry Research Capacity in Developing Countries Forestry N° of Graduate N°of Region Research research researchers researchers Institutes (%) Institutes (1985 values)* Sub Saharan Africa 7a) 54 4.0 (7.3) 1106 West Asia-North Africa 3.8 29 2.9 (5.7) 815 Asia-Pacific (excl. China) 13.4 102 25.8 (9.4) 7177 Latin America - 14.7 112 9.7 (5.4) 2687 Caribbean Global Totals 100 764 100 11785 adapted from FAO 1995, *1985 Pardey et al, figures for Asia Pacific exclude China. 3.2.2. Agroforestry Research Agroforestry research has been widely taken up over the last two or three decades by small teams in agricultural and forestry research institutes and university departments throughout the world. Until recently, however, greater inputs have been made by development projects and NGO’s practising social and community forestry. ICRAF was established in 1977 to conduct and support agroforestry research. At that time, agroforestry was still lacking the theoretical basis and accumulated data of traditional areas such as forestry and agriculture. Early work therefore concentrated on developing the conceptual and methodological basis for agroforestry research, bringing together relevant information from disparate sources to make it available to a wide Annex III - Page 45 audience, and supporting agroforestry training and education with a view to developing greater national capacity in agroforestry research and development. Building on this foundation, ICRAF initiated a collaborative research programme in 1985. The goal then was to strengthen national research capacity and ultimately to generate agroforestry technologies suitable for farmers. In 1991, ICRAF became a member of the CGIAR. At present, ICRAF’s work is concentrated in four ecological regions of Africa: the humid lowlands and the semi-arid lowlands of West Africa, the highlands of East and Central Africa, and the plateau lands of Southern Africa, as well as in the humid tropics of Southeast Asia and Latin America. Worldwide agroforestry research is expanding (Sanchez, 1995), with a number of other institutions (e.g. CATIE, EMBRAPA, ICAR) playing a significant role. 3.3. Global Issues and Research Needs 3.3.1. Forestry People have cleared and modified forests for millennia, as human needs, perceptions and numbers have changed: forests have been modified to increase the flow of benefits to the users-managers. But some changes have had unintended or “perverse” effects, especially in recent decades. As pressures on land and competition for access to it have increased, inequities have developed in the distribution of the costs and benefits of forest use. These problems have occurred at the levels of forest communities, nations, regions and the entire world. They have affected the poor and the rich, foresters, farmers and corporations, local and distant users, and will affect future generations. This situation will inevitably be exacerbated by growth in population. In fifty years, the world will need at least three times as much food as at present. This will increase pressures to convert forest lands to agriculture. The principal consequences and causes for concern are: local livelihoods will be lost or impaired for many millions of people who derive much of their income or subsistence from foods, fibres, medicines or other products and services from tropical forests; and the environmental services from forests which support and sustain agricultural productivity could be seriously damaged, thus exacerbating agricultural and food- security concerns, as well as global environmental externalities. In Asia and Latin America, much of the increase in global food production over the past thirty years has resulted from intensification (partly through scientific breakthroughs developed by CGIAR Centres). Rates of yield increase for many food crops are now slowing. Part of the increase in global food production has been through creating new farmlands by clearing forests, particularly in Africa, but this cannot continue without serious environmental and social costs. Annex III - Page 46 Currently, around 3,400 million m3 of roundwood are removed annually from the world’s forests for human use. A little less than half of this is used for industrial purposes, with the remainder being used principally as fuel for cooking and heating. The annual contribution of forest products to the world economy currently approaches US$400 billion. About one-third of this is generated in developing countries, where forest products contribute 2.7% of their combined gross domestic product. [The remaining two- thirds is generated in industrialised countries, contributing 2% of their total GDP.] In developing countries slightly more than half of the economic value of forest products comes from the use of wood in energy, [compared to less than 10% in the industrialised countries]. The global value of trade in forest products was about US$ 98 billion in 1991, equal to 3.3% of world mercantile trade and almost one-fourth of the total world trade in agricultural, fishery and forest products. In the three decades since 1961, world trade in forest products has more than tripled (measured in 1990 US dollars). Exports of forest products from developing countries have increased by a factor of six; the share of forest products exports which originate in developing countries has risen from 8% in 1961 to 13% in 1990 (still a very low share, given that these countries represent 75% of the world’s population). The structure of forest products trade has also changed significantly. In 1961, 60% of developing country exports were unprocessed roundwood; by 1990 the value of roundwood exports had more than doubled in constant dollars but the share had dropped to 20% of the total. Numerous studies have shown that official statistics consistently undervalue forests as sources of products and employment. The diversity of uses and products is enormous and most are processed or traded in the informal sector. Preliminary CIFOR analyses of the true contribution of forests to developing countries’ economies suggest that it is probably at least double that shown in national accounts. Forests may contribute as much as 6% of economic product and up to 10% of total employment. However just as the true extent of forest values are not adequately documented, so the costs to poor forest- dependent people of forest degradation and loss are not widely recognised. Deforestation is generally perceived as a global environmental problem and the magnitude of the losses incurred by developing country peoples has been largely ignored in the international debate. New technologies and policies are essential to help reduce the destruction and degradation of tropical forests, to avoid enormous social and economic losses. These will not just be limited to the forestry sector as conventionally defined. Individuals and countries who generate their incomes from forest products will suffer, and consumers will face shortages and higher prices. Yet as social recognition of the non-consumptive and amenity values of forests increases, the predominant demand on forestry is likely to change from timber to environmental services. Tropical forests in future will provide a much wider range of social, economic and environmental benefits, and for a much wider range of beneficiaries. Many forests will be of more value for environmental and watershed protection, or for provision of non-timber products to local communities, than for their capacity to produce industrial cellulose. Although the aggregate demand for finished products is projected to Annex III - Page 47 continue to increase, the amount of industrial raw materials from forests may rise more slowly, or possibly even decline, due to expanding technological abilities to find alternative raw materials (for most uses, from construction to paper), to increase processing efficiency, to increase functional product life and to recycle. In contrast, our reliance on environmental services from forests will not decline, and may increase. This transition is further complicated by equity considerations, because the beneficiaries from industrial use of forests may be quite different from those who benefit from non-industrial usage, or from the provision of environmental services from forests. As prices increase for timber and other products from managed natural forests, and as plantation technology and "tree-husbandry" techniques improve and become more widespread, forest products will increasingly come from "cultivated" rather than from "natural" sources of supply. Indeed, rapid expansion of high-yielding plantations in the tropics could provide an alternative, commercially attractive resource that may reduce harvesting pressures on natural forests. The average annual timber productivity of natural forests, world-wide, is currently lm3/ha/year, thus 4 billion hectares presently yield approximately 4 billion m3 of logs. At the other extreme, only 100 million hectares of well-managed, well-located tropical plantations could, hypothetically, generate the same volume of timber harvest. By increasing the productivity of forest management, the area required to produce a given timber yield could be significantly reduced. Intensification of forest management - of both natural forests and plantation forests - is inevitable. Similar trends can be demonstrated for a variety of non-timber forest products under intensified management and domestication. World-wide, there are already about 100 million hectares of forest plantations. They comprise 2.6% of the world’s forest areas and met 15% of the world’s wood requirements in 1995. There are clear trends of increasing areas of both industrial and non-industrial plantations in the tropics. In 1990 there were 43 million hectares of tropical plantations - up from 21 million hectares in 1980, so most of them are very young still - and almost 75% of this is in Asia (Table 2). Most of the 28 million hectares of non­ industrial tropical plantations are in farm strips or woodlots in Asia (82%), with 12% in Latin America and the Caribbean and 6% in Africa. Table 2: Area of plantations including woodlots (’000 ha) in the tropics Region 1965 1980 1990 Africa TT7S 2 724 3773 W%) Asia incl. China 4 421 13 046 29 245 (68%) Australia and 70 269 420 (1%) Pacific Central America 219 486 786 (2%) and Caribbean South America 597 4 448 8 470 (20%) Total 6 667 20 973 42 694 Source: Evans (1992) Plantation Forestry in the Tropics. Clarendon Press, Oxford, p35 Although they provide comparable commodities, plantations generally provide fewer environmental benefits than natural forests, but nevertheless remain a better environmental option than many other land uses. Almost two billion hectares of land in Annex III - Page 48 the tropics have suffered moderate to severe degradation in the past fifty years (Table 3). Physical and chemical degradation is manifested as soil compaction, sheet and gully erosion, increased soil acidity and reduced availability of nutrients. Biological degradation includes declining soil organic matter, losses in beneficial soil micro­ organisms and weed encroachment. In the humid tropics alone, there are 250 million hectares of degraded forest fallows, Imperata cilindrica grasslands and degraded pastures. In densely populated South and Southeast Asia, nearly 20% of farmland is unproductive due to salinity, waterlogging and loss of top soil. The restoration of forest cover on this land could do much to improve the welfare of these extremely poor rural people. Table 3: Human-induced land degradation, 1945-1992 Total Degraded Area as % of Total Region Degraded Area Vegetated Land (1992) (m ha) Asia TZ5 20 Africa 494 22 South America 244 14 North & Central 158 8 America Oceania 103 13 Sources: Swaminathan (1995) from World Resources Institute (1992). Tropical plantations will have only a small beneficial impact on tropical deforestation, as long as the major cause of deforestation is agricultural expansion. However, plantations can help relieve some of the other pressures leading to deforestation in specific socioeconomic conditions. Plantation forestry should be considered as complementary to the management of natural forests and not as a substitute. The real issue is the potential of plantations to optimise benefits from low-potential sites. Forest plantations, at their best, foster local socioeconomic development, and provide employment, raw materials, infrastructure and environmental and recreational services for local people. At their worst, plantations can take land out of food production in areas of acute food shortage, increase landlessness or destroy culturally important species, habitats and landscapes. Plantations and societies interact, and ultimately many plantations have suffered financially when managed in a way that led to social problems. Where plantations form a major part of the land-use system, and where competition for land is strong, the social and cultural implications and feedback can be significant. The notion of forestry providing a broad range of products and services dominates many countries’ forest policies as they attempt to ensure social, environmental and rural stability, as well as timber supplies. Thus, the area of plantations designed specifically for non-industrial products and services has greatly increased. Much still needs to be done to ensure that plantation forestry is sustainable, through incorporating appropriate responses to ecological, economic, social and cultural needs. Today the areas of land suitable and available for forestry are decreasing and are often part of an intricate mosaic of land use and ownership. The main benefits from integrating trees and other land uses appear to be in the less-productive marginal uplands where ecological benefits Annex III - Page 49 translate into economic advantages, i.e. higher productivity on a sustained basis. Commercial incentive is often the strongest stimulant for tree growing but frequently local markets for forest products are not well established and/or there is poor market information, and consequently little private, small-scale investment in commercial forestry. Much can be learned by studying institutions and markets in those few countries where small-scale forestry is flourishing. The applications of social forestry to increasing agricultural productivity, to soil conservation and to the provision of wood products has two elements, i.e. local participation and the sustainable increase of productivity on a fixed area of land. Local participation will occur only if farmers are able to take up new technologies - new incentives (or the removal of disincentives) may be necessary. Government commitment to promoting new technologies through legislation, technical support, market development and finances may be a key factor. Overall there must be economic gain; conservation without discernible economic benefits is difficult to promote. The perceived ecological benefits are nutrient and soil conservation in fragile and hilly lands and restoration of the productive capacity of degraded lands, through soil biological processes controlling the decomposition of plant residues. Loss of biodiversity - both flora and fauna - from tropical forests, and release of vast carbon stores with the simultaneous reduction in the capacity for new carbon sequestration, have potentially devastating consequences. These global externalities provide compelling reasons for the world community to invest in reforestation and forest conservation. We are currently witnessing the transition from harvesting naturally occurring forest products to domestication and cultivation of trees for specific purposes, analogous to the transitions millennia ago in the domestication of crops and livestock. Much of the world’s future supplies of timber and non-timber forest products are likely to come from domesticated sources such as mixed-species plantations. Simultaneously, timber and non- timber products from natural forests are likely to come increasingly from sources which are retained primarily for their environmental functions and which are under management which is “certified” as socially and environmentally benign. 3.3.2. Agroforestry As each year passes, more and more people in the tropics face crippling poverty and famine. Understandably, their priority is firmly set on food production rather than on pursuing long-term conservation goals. And, tragically, as they struggle to meet then- subsistence needs using resources at unsuitable levels, their future becomes more bleak and environmental stability more tenuous. A few daunting statistics highlight the current land-use problems. About 15 million hectares of tropical forest are destroyed each year by human activities such as unsustainable commercial logging, shifting cultivation, expanding settlements, land speculation and ranching. Annex III - Page 50 On current trends, by the end of the decade, 2.4 billion people will be either unable to obtain their minimum energy needs, or will be forced to consume fuel wood faster than it is being replenished. Between 1970 and 1990, available arable land fell from a world average of 0.38 ha per capital to 0.28 ha. Each year, 25 billion tonnes of productive top soil are lost to agriculture - mostly a direct result of erosion in the wake of poor land use Vast areas of agricultural land are being depleted of nutrients - largely an outcome of fallow systems in their struggle to produce more food from small areas. Creating replacement fields for depleted agricultural soils is the cause of more than half of the world’s annual deforestation. Without significant change, these problems can only get worse as, during the decade, the world’s population surges by a further one billion. Part of the solution to this crisis lies with a new ‘green revolution’ - approaches to land use that will simultaneously feed people and conserve natural resources. In the 1980’s and 90’s, external factors changed rapidly. Worldwide concerns about global warming, high rates of deforestation, accelerating land depletion and the need for sustainable land-use practices were brought to the forefront of the political agenda by the Brundtland Commission on Environment and Development and the Bellagio Strategy Meetings on Tropical Forests which helped set the stage for the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). It became clear that acceptable long-term solutions also require research on ecology and conservation, along with ways to decrease rural poverty. Through such avenues as UNCED and the subsequent recommendations of Agenda 21, the world community has recognized that these approaches must not only address the link between improved productivity and environmental protection, but must combine poverty alleviation with sustainable resources management based on sound scientific principles. The desire to promote sustainable agriculture and rural development as a step towards improved natural resource conservation has had a direct bearing on agroforestry. While there is a continued focus on productivity and poverty alleviation, the goals and objectives have been modified to give greater emphasis to research related to the management of natural resources. This is seen in the recent re-definition of agroforestry as a dynamic, ecologically based, natural resources management system that through the integration of trees in farm- and rangeland, diversifies and sustains smallholder production for increased social, economic and environmental benefits (Leakey, 1996). The research needs in agroforestry are numerous and diverse, since agroforestry research requires a multidisciplinary approach linking social and biophysical sciences throughout the research-to-development continuum (ie strategic to adaptive research). Regarding the needs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Forests of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) and the World Commission on Annex III - Page 51 Forests and Sustainable Developments (WCFSD), ICRAF addressed the research and capacity building issues with three major agroforestry questions: why aren’t farmers planting more trees? how can agroforestry research contribute to the development of sustainable and profitable land-use systems? how can agro forestry research, training and education promote the institutionalization and enhancement of sustainable land use and capacity building in research institutions? Why aren’t farmers planting or retaining more trees. Research is needed to examine and overcome the policy and germplasm constraints that prevent farmers from planting trees. The policy constraints include: lack of land on tree tenure; the promotion of governments of non-sustainable or inappropriate land uses, and the economic disincentives of low prices, lack of marketing opportunities, poor infrastructure for trading and lack of credit, etc. Policy changes conferring formal land or tree tenure and the removal of disincentives to plant trees will promote the availability of land to farmers, thereby increasing the land under productive cropping and promoting social well-being in rural communities. The germplasm constraints are those of: the non-availability of seeds of many tree species, and where seeds are available a lack of information and knowledge about how to collect and use them. Farmers would like and would respond to access to improved germplasm, but frequently such material is in small quantities and without pathways for dissemination. How can agroforestry research contribute to the development of sustainable and profitable land use systems? One approach requiring research is to develop agroforestry practices that stabilize the agricultural side of the forest margin by the integration of trees in farmland for the production of timber and non-wood forest products. Multi-strata agroforests, as developed in Southeast Asia, are the ultimate example of such systems, but little research has been done to develop such systems elsewhere in the tropics. So far, there is little understanding on how these multi-strata agroforests - which are an attractive alternative to slash-and- bum agriculture - diversify agroecosystems and enhance biodiversity, sequester carbon, affect green house gas emission or sinks. Similarly, little is known of the economic and social benefits of these systems in terms of cash generation, food security and their ability to alleviate poverty and buffer and diversity economic returns. Research is also needed for methods to improve agroforestry systems by integrating trees into farming systems in a way that develops a mosaic of land-uses on Annex III - Page 52 both the farm and landscape scales. In this way, the productivity of the systems can be achieved, while also improving their ecological and economic stability. The benefits of agroforestry systems will be further enhanced if the trees are domesticated so that they are both more productive, of higher quality, and superior in other desirable traits. The genetic improvement of agroforestry tree species for an increased range of timber and non-wood forest products should increase the overall economic returns from a unit of land in the longer term, so triggering improvements in marketing infrastructure and in the incentives to grow trees. Potential gains in this area are high, since little improvement work has been done to date on agroforestry species. Although much agroforestry research has been focused on the restoration of soil fertility though biological nitrogen fixation, more is needed to ensure the rehabilitation of degraded farmland through the development of increasingly intensive and diverse farming systems. Current policies and price structures for inorganic fertilizers make them inaccessible to many resource-poor farmers. Research into methods to recapitalize depleted soils using trees to recycle nutrients from strata below the rooting zone of crops or applied fertilizers is particularly necessary. Such rehabilitation of abandoned non-forest land could increase the area of land under cultivation and increase its carrying capacity. Large scale applications of rock phosphate as a slow-release fertilizer could also have a critical role in replenishing soils. However, much needs to be learnt about policy, environmental, social and economic factors of such an approach. Research needs also include the intra- and inter-specific variation among trees abilities to solubilize, uptake, use and recycle phosphorus, and on the soil process and land-use systems involved in maximizing the benefit from a capital investment in rock phosphate. The maintenance of soil fertility is essential for the sustainability of production from this land, but sustainability will also depend on the control of potential weeds, pests and diseases. The risks of these should be minimized by integrated land-use management, but intricate mixtures of trees and crops also pose problems arising from their competition for resources (light, water and nutrients). Strategic research is needed to understand the processes so that trees and crops can be grown together to minimize competition for resources and reduce the risks of pest and disease outbreaks. The capital value of fertile soils is also lost through erosion by wind and water and through leaching. Much is known about the ability of contour hedgerows and windbreaks to reduce erosion, but less is known for other agro forestry practices. How can agroforestry research, training and education promote the institutionalization and enhancement of sustainable landuse and capacity building in research institutions? The institutionalization of agroforestry through the development of national and regional research teams has occurred in many countries. This can be greatly enhanced by curriculum development in colleges and universities, postgraduate training for researchers; administrators and educationalists; workshops and courses; in-service Annex III - Page 53 training; information dissemination to NGOs, farmers and others in rural development sector, and - importantly - by informing and working with farmers. 3.4. Priorities and Current Research Activities for Forestry and Agroforestry in the CGIAR 3.4.1. Forestry From consideration of these factors and the potential beneficiaries of research findings, the following major research priorities are being addressed. 1. Underlying Causes of Deforestation, Forest Degradation and Poverty in Forest Margins Policy and social science analyses (through country case studies) demonstrate how more effective co-ordination between forestry and non-forest sectors, and macro-economic policy reform, can improve land-use choices; enrich our understanding of the causes of deforestation and forest degradation and therefore provide preventive measures on a wider regional scale, and help assure that various stakeholders receive appropriate and lasting benefits from those resources. 2. Landscape-scale Conservation and Management: Forest Ecosystem Management Appropriate forestry policies and technologies (including planning models and assessment methodologies) are needed at the landscape scale. The development of these policies and technologies will require both the acquisition and use of comparative base data among the ecoregional foci. Generic methods will be developed for (a) characterising vegetation for natural resource surveys; (b) indicators to be used in assessing biodiversity; (c) predictive modelling to map the distribution of species; (d) assessing plant functional attributes and site physical environment attributes; (e) undertaking natural resource surveys which integrate biophysical information with socioeconomic information. 3. Multiple Resource Management of Natural Forests Guidelines and technologies which reduce environmental impacts associated with timber harvesting, while retaining economic efficiency, and policies and incentives which encourage timber concessionaires and loggers to utilise such techniques, should improve the efficiency of planning harvesting operations and reduce impacts of logging in natural forests of the tropics. Reduced-impact techniques in harvesting operations in tropical forests could result in a 50% increase in carbon sequestration by residual vegetation and a 25 % reduction in soil impacts caused by logging equipment. Annex III - Page 54 Improved understanding of silvicultural interventions in natural forests and improved design of silvicultural research can increase the biological productivity and commercial value of logged-over forests, through the application of ecologically based silvicultural practices. Increased productivity of secondary forests and identification of socioeconomic and policy factors that influence the adoption of management in secondary forests, will improve the contribution of such forests to the well-being of the rural poor and enhance the sustainable production of multiple goods and services. Substantial reduction in the conversion of primary forests to agriculture and pasture could result from increased use of secondary forests to generate incomes. 4. Assessing the Sustainability of Forest Management: Testing Criteria and Indicators Certification of “sustainably managed forests” requires the identification of criteria and indicators which are objective, cost-effective, and relevant, in both industrial forests and in forests managed by local communities. Decision support methodologies for evaluation of the sustainability of forest management and generalised methods and technologies for testing criteria and indicators, including the social impacts of forest management, are sought by policy makers, government agencies and other organisations involved in assessing, controlling or certifying the sustainability of forest management. The most important primary gain is the ability to discern clearly between sustainable and unsustainable forest management practices. This in itself will neither better the well being of forest dependent people nor enhance the conservation of forest areas unless it is adopted for use by: Policy makers: to improve the policy framework to reward sustainable management practices and discourage unsustainable utilisation and conversion of forest lands. Trade: Preferential treatment or better prices for forest products especially timber from sustainable sources through certification. This in turn is expected to be an incentive for the adoption of sustainable management practices. Management: to reduce environmental impacts and degradation through an improved ability to diagnose the sustainability of management practices, and reduce social tensions and increase opportunities for income generation and maintenance of lifestyles. 5. Plantation Forestry on Degraded or Low-potential Sites. Improved understanding of key factors determining growth rates on low potential sites can lead to guidelines and technologies which improve production and sustainability of fast-growing plantations on degraded and low potential sites, through better management practices, especially for smallholders involved in plantation forestry. Where improved management practices are identified and adopted in fast-growing plantations, increased growth rates of 10-40% in the second and subsequent rotations can be achieved. Improved economics of small-scale plantations compared to other land use- alternatives, should reduce pressures on natural forests and increase opportunities for households and communities to generate income from forest products. Annex III - Page 55 6. Conservation of Biodiversity and Genetic Resources This project will determine the impacts of human disturbance, logging and fragmentation on in situ conservation of biodiversity, and develop tools for measuring and monitoring genetic diversity. Outputs will be the establishment of a relationship between the intensity of disturbance and genetic diversity for species with different life history characteristics which will allow the formulation of management prescriptions for protected areas. The tools will include molecular marker techniques; and GIS and remote sensing applications. The impact will be through more effective conservation of biodiversity of forests and its effect on sustainable forest utilisation and efficient use of natural resources. 7. Local Livelihoods, Community-based Management and Devolution Based on a better understanding of the livelihoods, property rights and decision-making systems of people living in forest areas, this project will identify policy options for improving the compatibility of conservation objectives with local people’s needs. It will identify institutional arrangements for successful integrated conservation and development. Tools include simple methodologies for the rapid measurement of forest incomes and assessment of income opportunities compatible with conservation and systems for the quantitative modelling of the people-forest interface. The application of the research results should have significant impacts on the well-being of communities in forest areas. The research should also result in improved performance of integrated conservation and development projects and extractive reserves. 8. Sustainable Use and Development of Non-Timber Forest Products Theories and models are required that explain trends in NTFP utilisation and assess the potential for NTFP based development. The project will estimate impacts as a result of NTFP based development on forests and biodiversity, as well as generating more reliable estimates of the number of people who depend on NTFP, and the nature of this dependency. Procedures for assessing the potential of NTFP development will become important tools in projects where NTFP based development is being considered. 3.4.2. Agroforestry Priorities for agroforestry research span two major areas of activity: the development of alternatives to slash-and-bum agriculture and the mitigation of land degradation through soil depletion. Both of these research areas are important as means of counterbalancing the effects of deforestation on farmers livelihoods. Cross-cutting themes of this research agenda are soil amelioration, environmental rehabilitation, cash generation for poverty alleviation, tree domestication, agroecosystem function, impact at a landscape scale and capacity building. ICRAF is the convening centre for two of the CGIAR’s systemwide programmes: Alternatives to Slash-and-Bum Programme which spans the 3 humid lowland ecoregions, and the African Highlands Initiative which is part of the Global Mountains Initiative and is based in East Africa. Annex III - Page 56 Agroforestry research priorities are organized under the following four programmes. 1. Natural Resource Strategies and Policy: This programme focuses on farmers’ management of the resource base of agriculture, as well as on the ecological, social and economic interactions among these resources across different spatial scales. Its research agenda is driven by farmers’ needs and goals, and by ecological principles rather than being led by technological development. It aims to; develop typologies of land-use systems and farmers on the basis of ecological and socioeconomic parameters and at various spatial scales (household to continental), develop (and validate) ecological-economic models which predict the adoption potential and sustainability of improved agroforestry practices at the farming system and regional scales. analyse policy constraints to the adoption of these improved practices and to design alternative policy instruments for addressing them, evaluate the actual ecological, social, cultural and economic impacts of adoption of agroforestry practices. 2. Domestication of Agroforestry Trees Through its Germplasm Resources Unit (GRU), the Programme collects, characterizes and disseminates information and germplasm of priority agroforestry trees. This germplasm is then evaluated for its genetic diversity and domesticated through genetic selection, vegetative propagation and breeding, for use in various agroforestry technologies. The objective of this research is to improve the genetic quality of agro forestry trees species by the collection, evaluation and selection of germplasm for the compatible production of food, fodder, fuel wood, timber and other products with companion crops, and the provision of environmental services such as soil conservation and amelioration of soils. 3. Tree-Crop-Environment Interactions Process measurements are made in priority agroforestry systems identified to solve specific land-use or socioeconomic problems in each ecoregions, so as to understand the function as well as improve the performance of the systems. The objective is to contribute to the development of improved and sustainable agroforestry systems by: gaining an understanding of biophysical interactions between the components of agroforestry systems synthesizing results from a wide range of environments through models and obtaining predictive capability for evaluating alternative systems and management options Annex III - Page 57 developing research methods for facilitating the conduct and improving quality of process-oriented research in agroforestry 4. Agroforestry Systems Improvement Research activities are undertaken on the potential of agroforestry to address the constraints and opportunities that farmers experience. This systems improvement research focuses on the monitoring and evaluation of the long-term biophysical, ecological and economic impact of agroforestry technologies used as alternatives to current systems. This work is undertaken on research stations and on farms by multidisciplinary teams of scientists at a range of locations in many countries. The priority systems currently being investigated address the prospects and constraints of alternatives to slash-and-bum agriculture, the reclamation of abandoned and depleted lands in the humid tropics, and land depletion in the savanna woodlands and agrosilvopastoral systems of the subhumid and semi-arid tropics. The objective is to develop, through a participatory research approach, biophysically-sustainable and economically-viable agroforestry systems which address the priority concerns of farmers and major environmental issues in the six ecoregions in which ICRAF works. 4. FISHERIES 4.1. Background Fisheries play an important role in food production, income generation and the provision of employment in developing countries. The number of full-time fishermen in developing countries has been estimated at 12.9 million, of whom 80% live in Asia, 12% in sub-Saharan Africa, 6% in Latin America and the Caribbean and 2% in West Asia-North Africa (ICLARM, 1991). In addition, there are many millions of part-time fishermen. Water covers 70% of the earth’s surface, and the total production of aquatic commodities amounts to 95 million tonnes annually, of which 79% is in the form of finfish, 5% crustaceans, 9% molluscs, and 7% seaweeds. Fish and fish products provide 20% of animal protein and 4% of dietary protein in developing countries, but these averages mask the fact that in several countries this share is at least twice as high. The total gross value of world fisheries production is almost US$ 25 billion per year, of which 52 % originates from marine capture fish, 18% from inland capture fish, 16% from inland culture fish and 14% from marine culture fish. Fish account for 5.6% of the total value of production of agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Annex III - Page 58 Approximately 72% of the gross value of fish production originates in Asia, 17% in Latin America and the Caribbean, 8.1% in sub-Saharan Africa and 3% in West Asia-North Africa (TAC/CGIAR, 1990). Of the global aquatic production, only 12% originates from aquaculture, but in value terms this share amounts to 29 %. Aquaculture differs from capture fisheries just as agriculture does from hunting and gathering. Aquaculture, as in the case of agriculture, and even more than in capture fisheries, requires ownership or control over the aquatic resources (commodity) and space. It implies action to direct energy flows in the ecosystem towards the commodity produced. During 1993, total world aquaculture production amounted to 16.3 million tonnes, of which 50% consisted of finfish, 4% crustaceans, 18% molluscs and 28% seaweeds. About 86% of world aquaculture production originates in Asia, but in terms of value this share amounts to 78 %. The value of culture fisheries exceeds that of many ‘traditional’ CGIAR commodities such as beans, sorghum, and groundnuts. 4.2. Global Fisheries Research Needs Issues and their relation to CGIAR goals: Previous TAC reports, as well as a recent study undertaken on behalf of several donor agencies, have stressed the need for more research on fisheries (see, for instance CEC/FAO/UNDP/Worid Bank 1991). Humans capture some 4,000 species of fish, molluscs, crustaceans and other aquatic organisms and culture nearly 200; capture and culture contribute to food security both through the provision of fish and through employment and income generation. Aquatic resource research contributes directly to several CGIAR goals, including the preservation of biodiversity, better management and conservation of natural resources, the improvement of the policy environment and the strengthening of national research systems. Fisheries in a State of Transition: For more than four decades, from about 1950, the per capita supply of fish rose continually despite rapid population growth. About 50% of the demand increase since 1970 is attributed to increased population demand, and the remainder to economic factors such as rising disposable incomes in many countries. However, in 1990, the rise in supply was halted, and a per capita decline in supply began to occur. The price of fish had begun to rise during the 1980s and this rise was far greater than for any other food commodity groups, the prices for most of which continued to fall over the period. Trade in fish has also increased, making fish one of the most highly traded of agricultural commodities — nearly 40% of production by value is traded internationally. World fisheries and aquaculture are now in a state of transition, learning to cope with increasing stock scarcity price increases. Key current issues include the need for better management of natural fish stocks, increased production through aquaculture and better stewardship of the aquatic environment to prevent a large gap between demand and supply (Williams in press). Annex III - Page 59 Global Concern for the Future: Recent predictions are that the world will need between 110 and 120 million tonnes of fish by the year 2010, compared to the present supply of about 71 million tonnes of food fish (FAO 1995). The implications for food security in the developing world are serious as was noted at the December 1995 Conference on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security Fisheries. The major output of this conference was the Kyoto Declaration and Plan of Action, which was signed by 95 countries. Several parts of the document relate to research and its contribution to food security through fisheries and aquaculture, as shown in Table 1, below. Table 1: Extracts from the Kyoto Declaration and Plan of Action on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security (Kyoto Declaration 1995). We, the 95 States which met in Kyoto from 4 to 9 December 1995 on the occasion of the International Conference on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security............... DECLARE that we should, without prejudice to the rights and obligations of States under international law: 1. Recognise and appreciate the significant role which marine fisheries, inland fisheries and aquaculture play in providing food security for the world, both through food supplies and through economic and social well-being; 7. Undertake in-depth studies to assess the social, economic and cultural importance of fisheries and fishery products; 8. Promote and strengthen scientific research as the fundamental basis for sustainable development of fisheries and aquaculture activities to ensure food security, as well as provide scientific and technical co-operation and support for those countries with lesser research capabilities. 9. Base policies, strategies and resource management and utilisation for sustainable development of the fisheries sector on the following: (I)maintenance of ecological systems; (ii) use of the best scientific evidence available; (iii) improvement in economic and social well-being; and (iv) inter- and intra-generational equity. 11. Assess the stock productivity in the waters under national jurisdiction, both inland and marine, adjust the fishing capacity in these waters to a level commensurate with long-term stock productivity etc.... 12. Conserve and sustainable use biological diversity and its components in the aquatic environment and, in particular, prevent practices leading to irreversible changes, such as extinction of genes and species, genetic erosion and/or large scale destruction of habitats; 13. Study the effectiveness of multi-species management; 18. Promote the use of sustainable and environmentally sound aquaculture and ranching in coastal marine and inland waters through, inter alia: (I) establishment of appropriate institutional and legal frameworks; (ii) coordination of the use of lands an waters with other activities; (iii) use of the best and most appropriate genetic material in conformity with the conservation and sustainable use of the environment and conservation of biological diversity; and (iv) application of social and environmental impact assessments; 22. Provide, either directly or through regional, sub-regional or international organizations, technical and financial assistance to developing countries, in particular low income food-deficit developing countries and small island developing States, in order to assist them to realize the sustainable contribution of fisheries to food security and social and economic development; Annex III - Page 60 Research Topics: Despite its obvious fragility, the resource base in the developing world is still poorly understood. Research for most tropical fisheries is still rudimentary, although national research capacity is developing to meet the challenge. Several research needs are priorities, including cost-effective data acquisition, especially as it relates to fisheries resources, aquaculture development and biodiversity, developing a holistic approach, integrating biological and social science research, exploring the impact of protected areas, studying the potential of aquaculture and its relationship to the environment, extending the genetic improvement of aquaculture species, overcoming aquatic environment degradation and analyzing the impact of research. Several other topics, including improving post-harvest handling of fish and diagnosis and management of disease in aquaculture are also important, but of less relevance to present CGIAR objectives and capabilities. Cost-Effective Data Acquisition: In most fisheries, the several decades of rapid expansion of fishing have not allowed time to build up an understanding of the resource before it becomes fully exploited or overexploited. Cost effective systems for the acquisition of fisheries resource and fishing data (social and economic as well as biological) are still lacking. Scientists have developed some useful methods for the analysis of the resource base and its productive capacity but much more needs to be done before these methods can be effectively applied to the range of resource systems and the range of resource states (i.e. from newly exploited to degraded and over-exploited states). The role of biodiversity in the productivity of different types of resource systems is poorly understood and aquatic biodiversity is one of the least documented of any biological system. Available information on species is widely scattered and only now are systems such as FishBase starting to draw this information together. Holistic Approach: Scientists are now realizing that there is a need to understand the functioning of whole aquatic systems in order to understand the impacts of fishing, environmental degradation and climate change. This realization has changed the scale at which resource systems work is targeted and the types of partnerships required in research. Integrating Social and Biological Science: Managing the resource base is not simply a question of obtaining sufficient biological knowledge. A host of social, economic and cultural factors surround the institutions and the decision-making processes. Research by the social science disciplines, preferably integrated with or in close collaboration with biophysical studies, can contribute significantly to policy and institutional insights, advice and development. For example, the condition of free and open access is often blamed for overexploitation and rent dissipation in fisheries. Research has suggested that policy measures which are likely to be most effective in resource management are those which remove the open-access condition, i.e., establishment of user rights. In certain natural resource contexts, co-management and community-based management are approaches in which user rights can be instituted appropriately but we still do not understand sufficiently well the contexts most suited to these forms of management. Successes and failures of these approaches should be critically assessed and refined. Protected Areas: Protected areas are gaining popularity as an option for improved natural resources management; fisheries are one type of resource who which this approach Annex III - Page 61 might be useful. However, far more research is required to establish the most effective form of protected areas in different cultural and resource systems. The ad hoc implementation of protected area regimes may lead to unwarranted disappointment in the method. Research on the benefits and management approaches to protected areas such as marine parks should be enhanced, especially through joint research with national systems, and with the participation of neighbouring residents. Aquaculture Potential and Environmental Effects: Annual average production from aquaculture in 1990-93 was 15 million t. Potential growth of the sector has been estimated to reach 27 million t, under pessimistic conditions, and 39 million t, under the most optimistic. Non-traditional products, e.g. giant clams and sea cucumbers, that are seen to benefit coastal village farmers should be developed and the markets for such projects explored through economic studies. Some forms of aquaculture have already had deleterious effects on the environment and vice-versa. Carrying capacities in both freshwater and marine environments should be assessed particularly in sites with multiple and conflicting use of water resources. Technical inputs to regulations and aquaculture development policy are needed. Much of the current aquaculture development is on a fully commercial basis and producing products which have little impact on food security for the low income. Specific intervention to develop small-scale technologies for the adoption of fish farming for resource- poor farmers should be pursued further and market barriers minimized. Many of these technologies will need to be developed through farmer-participatory research tailored to specific situations. International public goods can be drawn from the research in terms of methodologies and on-farm results. Species Improvement: Genetic improvement of aquaculture species should be expanded beyond Nile tilapia and beyond the first simple breeding goals (growth and survival) to include other marketable species such as carp and goals such as disease resistance, desirable maturation goals but with great caution so as not to result in erosion of biodiversity. Working through national partners, the CGIAR should support the development of new approaches to national fish breeding programmes which underpin the multiplication and dissemination of new breeds. Since selective breeding in fish is still so new, there is no ready dissemination pathway for such breeds. Emphasis should be given to domestication and improvement of native species. There is also need to develop policy guidelines and codes of practice to safeguard the environment and maintain biodiversity. Aquatic Environment Degradation: The degradation of aquatic environments, in both coastal and catchment areas, and increasing competition between the fisheries sector and other sectors (tourism, shipping, agriculture) emphasize the need for a comprehensive and integrated approach to management. Tools that fully utilize and integrate the inputs of various disciplines should be developed and made accessible to policy-makers. Information databases should be maintained and made accessible to a wide group of users. Impact Analysis: The impacts of market globalization on poor fishers and consumers of fish should be analyzed. The impact of adoption of aquaculture on production and Annex III - Page 62 consumption of fish and on the environment should be assessed. Methods for assessing the impact of fisheries research on target beneficiaries should be developed and applied. Importance of Linkages: At best, the CGIAR can only produce a tiny fraction of the fisheries research that is needed to overcome the food security threats described above. To maximize the effect of its research, strong emphasis needs to be put on developing and sustaining an increasing number of linkages with others in the field. In keeping with the state of the art in fisheries research approaches, CGIAR work should involve the indigenous knowledge of local people to the maximum extent possible. This in turn will be facilitated by collaboration with NGOs who work with such people. Linkages with NARS and advanced research institutions will ensure that CGIAR results are disseminated, and outside ideas are incorporated into system work. The importance of such linkages suggests the need for a special programme in this area. ANNEX IV SELECTED TABLES OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Table 1a: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities by production sector; commodities valued in 1989/91 international $ Production sectors (% of total) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Total Sub - Saharan Africa 6.3% 2.7% 5.6% 0.6% 15.2% Asia 34.4% 9.3% 10.0% 4.7% 58.3% C. & S. America 7.7% 6.5% 3.8% 0.5% 18.4% WANA 4.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.3% 8.0% Total 52.5% 21.7% 19.7% 6.1% 100.0% Regional share (% of sector) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Sub - Saharan Africa 12.0% 12.5% 28.3% 10.3% Asia 65.5% 42.9% 50.5% 77.4% C. & S. America 14.6% 30.1% 19.1% 8.0% WANA 8.0% 14.5% 2.1% 4.2% x Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 3 Table 1 b: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities: values in 1000 int’l $ and shares by commodity Regional values and shares of commodity Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Share of Commodity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North Africa Share of commodity grand total Rice 5536690 4.1% 119371469 88.8% 6371498 4.7% 3080386 2.3% 134360043 17.5% Wheat 2097288 3.3% 40257850 63.7% 5744851 9.1% 15078283 23.9% 63178272 8.2% Maize 5275084 11.0% 27767295 57.8% 11579343 24.1% 3438061 7.2% 48059784 6.3% Barley 347939 5.2% 846017 12.7% 599640 9.0% 4872428 73.1% 6666025 0.9% Sorghum 3302430 38.1% 2352206 27.2% 2681450 31.0% 326331 3.8% 8662417 1.1% Millet 3112521 56.4% 2335319 42.3% 28788 0.5% 41791 0.8% 5518419 0.7% Cassava 9094680 63.5% 2206144 15.4% 3028944 21.1% 88 0.0% 14329858 1.9% Potato 525052 4.2% 7863944 63.1% 2101902 16.9% 1977514 15.9% 12468412 1.6% Sweet potato and yam 4628121 29.7% 10600972 68.0% 350252 2.2% 8716 0.1% 15588061 2.0% Sweet potato 547636 4.8% 10559409 93.3% 198672 1.8% 8716 0.1% 11314433 1.5% Yam 4080486 95.5% 41563 1.0% 151580 3.5% 0 0.0% 4273628 0.6% Banana 1608592 16.0% 5162804 51.4% 3031567 30.2% 234788 2.3% 10037751 1.3% Plantain 3110477 78.7% 90394 2.3% 750298 19.0% 0 0.0% 3951168 0.5% Pulses 5613884 19.1% 16898684 57.5% 4119553 14.0% 2756104 9.4% 29388226 3.8% Beans 2784840 21.2% 6248441 47.6% 3732009 28.4% 357300 2.7% 13122590 1.7% Chickpea 412569 5.0% 6167893 74.5% 244111 2.9% 1455887 17.6% 8280461 1.1% Pigeonpea 397834 12.9% 2656594 85.8% 41375 1.3% 0 0.0% 3095803 0.4% Lentil 55991 3.0% 980001 53.3% 45512 2.5% 757595 41.2% 1839100 0.2% Broad beans 218072 17.1% 829347 65.2% 42754 3.4% 182357 14.3% 1272529 0.2% Cowpea 1744577 98.1% 16408 0.9% 13792 0.8% 2965 0.2% 1777742 0.2% Soyabean 235130 0.9% 7510748 30.1% 17000509 68.2% 184002 0.7% 24930389 3.3% Groundnut 3344029 16.7% 15614744 78.0% 897539 4.5% 171848 0.9% 20028160 2.6% > Coconut 326142 6.2% 4566089 86.2% 403239 7.6% 0 0.0% 5295470 0.7% § Beef and buffalo meat 10023010 13.9% 24384940 33.7% 30367315 42.0% 7565729 10.5% 72340993 9.4% x Sheep and goat meat 3887348 18.8% 8906057 43.1% 1492599 7.2% 6374033 30.9% 20660037 2.7% ^ Total milk 6926299 9.5% 38033997 51.9% 18112646 24.7% 10198311 13.9% 73271254 9.6% Fuelwood and charcoal 39762311 33.7% 56381380 47.7% 19897240 16.8% 2103035 1.8% 118143966 Roundwood 15.4% £2964668 9.0% 19879322 60.5% 8944718 27.2% 1067579 3.2% Fish food 32856287 4.3% to 4815590 10.3% 36080074 77.4% 3741864 8.0% 1967100 4.2% 46604627 6.1% to Grand total by region 116537286 447110448 141245755 61446128 766339617 100.0% Regional share of grand total 15.2% 58.3% 18.4% 8.0% 100.0% Table 1 c: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR agricultural commodities: values in 1000 int’l$ and shares by commodity Region Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Share of Commodity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North Africa Share of commodity total Rice 5536690 4.1% 119371469 88.8% 6371498 4.7% 3080386 2.3% 134360043 23.6% Wheat 2097288 3.3% 40257850 63.7% 5744851 9.1% 15078283 23.9% 63178272 11.1% Maize 5275084 11.0% 27767295 57.8% 11579343 24.1% 3438061 7.2% 48059784 8.5% Barley 347939 5.2% 846017 12.7% 599640 9.0% 4872428 73.1% 6666025 1.2% Sorghum 3302430 38.1 % 2352206 27.2% 2681450 31.0% 326331 3.8% 8662417 1.5% Millet 3112521 56.4% 2335319 42.3% 28788 0.5% 41791 0.8% 5518419 1.0% Cassava 9094680 63.5% 2206144 15.4% 3028944 21.1% 88 0.0% 14329858 2.5% Potato 525052 4.2% 7863944 63.1% 2101902 16.9% 1977514 15.9% 12468412 2.2% Sweet potato and yam 4628121 29.7% 10600972 68.0% 350252 2.2% 8716 0.1% 15588061 2.7% Banana 1608592 16.0% 5162804 51.4% 3031567 30.2% 234788 2.3% 10037751 1.8% Plantain 3110477 78.7% 90394 2.3% 750298 19.0% 0 0.0% 3951168 0.7% Pulses, overall 5613884 19.1% 16898684 57.5% 4119553 14.0% 2756104 9.4% 29388226 5.2% Soyabean 235130 0.9% 7510748 30.1% 17000509 68.2% 184002 0.7% 24930389 4.4% Groundnut 3344029 16.7% 15614744 78.0% 897539 4.5% 171848 0.9% 20028160 3.5% Coconut 326142 6.2% 4566089 86.2% 403239 7.6% 0 0.0% 5295470 0.9% Beef and buffalo meat 10023010 13.9% 24384940 33.7% 30367315 42.0% 7565729 10.5% 72340993 12.7% Sheep and goat meat 3887348 18.8% 8906057 43.1% 1492599 7.2% 6374033 30.9% 20660037 3.6% Total milk 6926299 9.5% 38033997 51.9% 18112646 24.7% 10198311 13.9% 73271254 12.9% Overall agricultural commodities 68994717 334769672 108661933 56308415 568734737 100.0% by region 12.1% 58.9% 19.1 % 9.9% 100.0% > 3 n3x> HH < id 3 09 CO Table 2a: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities by production sector, weighted by the modified welfare indicator (income threshold value 9000 PPP $, exponent set as 2) Production sectors (% of total) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Total Sub-Saharan Africa 10.7% 4.6% 9.4% 1.1% 25.7% Asia 27.6% 10.2% 8.8% 4.0% 50.6% C. & S. America 7.5% 5.3% 4.0% 0.5% 17.2% WANA 3.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 6.5% Total 49.2% 22.6% 22.5% 5.7% 100.0% Regional share (% of sector) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Sub - Saharan Africa 21.8% 20.2% 41.6% 18.5% Asia 56.1% 45.2% 39.2% 69.9% >3 C. & S. America 15.2% 23.3% 17.6% 7.9% a3>x WANA 6.9% 11.2% 1.6% 3.7% < ►3 Total 100.0% 100.0% P100.0% 100.0% eara> Formula: VOD * (1 - ((1 -Gini coefficient)*lncome 2003)/9000) ~ 2 Table 2b: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities weighted by the modified welfare indicator (income threshold 9000 PPP $, exponent set as 2) Regional values and shares of commodity Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Share of Commodity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare of commodity grand total Rice 4708715 7.6% 52468947 84.9% 3445657 5.6% 1172201 1.9% 61795520 15.8% Wheat 1791056 6.9% 15272602 58.8% 2457037 9.5% 6437137 24.8% 25957832 6.6% Maize 5245360 26.5% 6138786 31.0% 6614470 33.4% 1793637 9.1% 19792253 5.1% Barley 309564 13.3% 270648 11.6% 258472 11.1% 1495443 64.1% 2334128 0.6% Sorghum 2847467 52.8% 1472576 27.3% 886960 16.4% 189814 3.5% 5396817 1.4% Millet 2662424 62.6% 1555708 36.6% 7545 0.2% 24975 0.6% 4250653 1.1% Cassava 7773848 72.9% 1077705 10.1% 1805777 16.9% 49 0.0% 10657380 2.7% Potato 458058 8.9% 2932794 57.3% 903435 17.6% 828327 16.2% 5122614 1.3% Sweet potato and yam 3814821 69.0% 1502790 27.2% 203267 3.7% 4282 0.1% 5525160 1.4% Sweet potato 451399 21.8% 1496898 72.4% 115298 5.6% 4282 0.2% 2067878 0.5% Yam 3363421 97.3% 5892 0.2% 87968 2.5% 0 0.0% 3457282 0.9% Banana 1390477 23.8% 2873076 49.1% 1496793 25.6% 87399 1.5% 5847746 1.5% Plantain 2635696 86.4% 45602 1.5% 370949 12.2% 0 0.0% 3052248 0.8% Pulses 4856807 26.3% 10334089 55.9% 2126655 11.5% 1177081 6.4% 18494632 4.7% Beans 2409282 29.0% 3821123 46.0% 1926591 23.2% 152596.3 1.8% 8309592 2.1% Chickpea 356931 7.3% 3771865 77.3% 126018.7 2.6% 621782.5 12.8% 4876597 1.2% Pigeonpea 344183 17.3% 1624593 81.6% 21359.1 1.1% 0 0.0% 1990135 0.5% Lentil 48441 4.9% 599302 60.2% 23495 2.4% 323555 32.5% 994793 0.3% Broad beans 188663 23.7% 507172 63.7% 22071 2.8% 77881 9.8% 795788 0.2% Cowpea 1509307 98.8% 10034 0.7% 7120 0.5% 1266 0.1% 1527727 0.4% Soyabean 194470 1.9% 1841788 18.1% 8096180 79.4% 62910 0.6% 10195349 2.6% Groundnut 2868138 26.8% 7389260 69.1% 363815 3.4% 70925 0.7% 10692138 2.7% Coconut 274289 9.0% 2579933 84.8% 188983 6.2% 0 0.0% 3043205 0.8% Beef and buffalo meat 8522888 24.9% 10429568 r 5: 30.5% 12146542 35.5% 3146953 9.2% 34245951 8.8% - S3 Sheep and goat meat 3345380 a>31.5% 4002707 37.7% 630936 5.9% 2642769 24.9% 10621792 2.7% Total milk 5978934 13.8% 25530003 58.7% 7827801 18.0% 4135895 9.5% 43472633 11.1% Fuelwood and charcoal 34155303 44.8% 29603040 38.9% 11383137 14.9% 1045313 1.4% 76186793 Roundwood 19.5%2435470 20.5% 4879431 41.1% 4157042 35.0% 400464 3.4% Fish food 11872407 3.0%4131776 ■ fo 18.5% 15658752 69.9% 1766160 7.9% 832083 3.7% 22388771 5.7% :- (JnQ> U\ Grand total by region 100400939 197859809 67137614 25547659 390946022 100.0% Regional share of grand total 25.7% 50.6% 17.2% 6.5% 100.0% Formula: VOD * (1 -((1 -Gini coefficient)* Income 2003)/9000)~ 2 Table 2c: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR agricultural commodities weighted by the modified welfare indicator Income threshold 9000 ppp $, exponent set as 2 Region Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Commoditiy Com m odity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare ofcommodity share Rice 4708715 7.6% 52468947 84.9% 3445657 5.6% 1172201 1.9% 61795520 22.0% Wheat 1791056 6.9% 15272602 58.8% 2457037 9.5% 6437137 24.8% 25957832 9.3% Maize 5245360 26.5% 6138786 31.0% 6614470 33.4% 1793637 9.1% 19792253 7.1% Barley 309564 13.3% 270648 1 1.6% 258472 11.1% 1495443 64.1% 2334128 0.8% sorghum 2847467 52.8% 1472576 27.3% 886960 16.4% 189814 3.5% 5396817 1.9% Millet 2662424 62.6% 1555708 36.6% 7545 0.2% 24975 0.6% 4250653 1.5% Cassava 7773848 72.9% 1077705 10.1% 1805777 16.9% 49 0.0% 10657380 3.8% Potato 458058 8.9% 2932794 57.3% 903435 17.6% 828327 16.2% 5122614 1.8% Sweet potato and yam 3814821 69.0% 1502790 27.2% 203267 3.7% 4282 0.1% 5525160 2.0% Banana 1390477 23.8% 2873076 49.1% 1496793 25.6% 87399 1.5% 5847746 2.1% Plantain 2635696 86.4% 45602 1.5% 370949 12.2% 0 0.0% 3052248 1.1% Pulses, overall 4856807 26.3% 10334089 55.9% 2126655 1 1.5% 1177081 6.4% 18494632 6.6% Soyabean 194470 1.9% 1841788 18.1% 8096180 79.4% 62910 0.6% 10195349 3.6% Groundnut 2868138 26.8% 7389260 69.1% 363815 3.4% 70925 0.7% 10692138 3.8% Coconut 274289 9.0% 2579933 84.8% 188983 6.2% 0 0.0% 3043205 1.1% Beef and buffalo m eat 8522888 24.9% 10429568 30.5% 12146542 35.5% 3146953 9.2% 34245951 12.2% Sheep and goat meat 3345380 31.5% 4002707 37.7% 630936 5.9% 2642769 24.9% 10621792 3.8% Total milk 5978934 13.8% 25530003 58.7% 7827801 18.0% 4135895 9.5% 43472633 15.5% Overall agriculture per region 59678391 147718586 49831275 23269798 280498051 100.0% Share of region after modification 21.3% 52.7% 17.8% 8.3% 100.0% >3 3 3 < -d 3 CTQ 3 CT\ Table 2d: Regional and overall shares of CGIAR crops after modification Region Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Commoditiy Com m odity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare of com modify share Rice 4708715 7.6% 52468947 84.9% 3445657 5.6% 1172201 1.9% 61795520 32.2% Wheat 1791056 6.9% 15272602 58.8% 2457037 9.5% 6437137 24.8% 25957832 13.5% Maize 5245360 26.5% 6138786 31.0% 6614470 33.4% 1793637 9.1% 19792253 10.3% Barley 309564 13.3% 270648 1 1.6% 258472 1 1.1% 1495443 64.1 % 2334128 1.2% Sorghum 2847467 52.8% 1472576 27.3% 886960 16.4% 189814 3.5% 5396817 2.8% Millet 2662424 62.6% 1555708 36.6% 7545 0.2% 24975 0.6% 4250653 2.2% Cassava 7773848 72.9% 1077705 10.1% 1805777 16.9% 49 0.0% 10657380 5.5% Potato 458058 8.9% 2932794 57.3% 903435 17.6% 828327 16.2% 5122614 2.7% Sweet potato and yam 3814821 69.0% 1502790 27.2% 203267 3.7% 4282 0.1% 5525160 2.9% Banana 1390477 23.8% 2873076 49.1 % 1496793 25.6% 87399 1.5% 5847746 3.0% Plantain 2635696 86.4% 45602 1.5% 370949 12.2% 0 0.0% 3052248 1.6% Pulses 4856807 26.3% 10334089 55.9% 2126655 1 1.5% 1177081 6.4% 18494632 9.6% Soyabean 194470 1.9% 1841788 18.1% 8096180 79.4% 62910 0.6% 10195349 5.3% Groundnut 2868138 26.8% 7389260 69.1% 363815 3.4% 70925 0.7% 10692138 5.6% Coconut 274289 9.0% 2579933 84.8% 188983 6.2% 0 0.0% 3043205 1.6% Overall agriculture per region 41831190 107756308 29225996 13344181 192157675 100.0% Share of region after modification 21.8% 56.1% 15.2% 6.9% 100.0% > 3 n3x < 3 CTQ CO -J Table 3a: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities by production sector, weighted by the modified welfare indicator (income threshold value 6000 PPP $, exponent set as 2) Production sectors (% of total) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Total Sub - Saharan Africa 12.7% 5.5% 11.2% 1.3% 30.6% Asia 26.7% 10.8% 8.6% 3.9% 50.0% C. & S. America 6.3% 4.0% 3.6% 0.4% 14.3% WANA 2.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 5.0% Total 48.3% 22.2% 23.7% 5.7% 100.0% Regional share (% of sector) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Sub - Saharan Africa 26.4% 24.6% 47.1% 22.1% Asia 55.2% 48.7% 36.4% 68.0% >3 C. 3 & S. America 13.1% 17.9% 15.3% 6.8% CPX WANA 5.3% 8.8% 1.3% 3.1% < 3 Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 00CP 00 Formula: VOD * (1 - ((1 -Gini coefficient)*lncome 2003)/6000) ~ 2 Table 3b: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities weighted by the modified welfare indicator (income threshold 6000 PPP $, exponent set as 2) Regional values and shares of commodity Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Share of Commodity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfrcaShare of commodity total Rice 4338815 9.2% 39916717 84.4% 2398641 5.1% 655832 1.4% 47310004 15.6% Wheat 1658751 9.0% 11457808 62.2% 1511090 8.2% 3806032 20.6% 18433681 6.1% Maize 4842020 36.3% 3021556 22.7% 4350613 32.7% 1107606 8.3% 13321795 4.4% Barley 292350 21.0% 195439 14.1% 155668 11.2% 747252 53.7% 1390709 0.5% Sorghum 2636540 59.2% 1272267 28.6% 397537 8.9% 143984 3.2% 4450328 1.5% Millet 2453098 64.2% 1346668 35.2% 2298 0.1% 19763 0.5% 3821827 1.3% Cassava 7164660 77.5% 757702 8.2% 1324598 14.3% 33 0.0% 9246993 3.1% Potato 428274 11.8% 2185266 60.1% 550165 15.1% 472072 13.0% 3635777 1.2% Sweet potato and yam 3440241 83.7% 513780 12.5% 153534 3.7% 2714 0.1% 4110270 1.4% Sweet potato 407076 40.4% 511766 50.7% 87089 8.6% 2714 0.3% 1008645 0.3% Yam 3033165 97.8% 2014 0.1% 66446 2.1% 0 0.0% 3101625 1.0% Banana 1291156 27.6% 2332026 49.9% 998153 21.3% 54225 1.2% 4675560 1.5% Plantain 2416397 89.8% 29190 1.1% 245296 9.1% 0 0.0% 2690883 0.9% Pulses 4508986 29.4% 8719108 56.8% 1441726 9.4% 679190 4.4% 15349010 5.1% Beans 2236741 32.6% 3223969 47.0% 1306097 19.1% 88050 1.3% 6854857 2.3% Chickpea 331369 8.4% 3182409 80.4% 85432 2.2% 358776 9.1% 3957986 1.3% Piqeonpea 319534 18.7% 1370706 80.4% 14480 0.8% 0 0.0% 1704721 0.6% Lentil 44972 6.0% 505645 67.1% 15928 2.1% 186695 24.8% 753240 0.2% Broad beans 175152 26.4% 427913 64.5% 14963 2.3% 44938 6.8% 662966 0.2% Cowpea 1401218 99.0% 8466 0.6% 4827 0.3% 731 0.1% 1415241 0.5% Soyabean 175726 2.7% 1103695 16.7% 5303084 80.2% 27811 0.4% 6610316 2.2% Groundnut 2647693 30.2% 5872862 66.9% 215778 2.5% 38936 0.4% 8775269 2.9% Coc onut 250387 10.9% 1927169 83.9% 118811 5.2% 0 0.0% 2296367 0.8% > Beef and buffalo meat 7852640 32.0% 7965449 32.4% 6910054 28.1% 1839815 7.5% 24567958 8.1% 33 Sheep and goat meat 3100505 38.2% 3026374 37.2% 382254 4.7% 1617011 19.9% 8126144 2.7% c Total milk 5563485 16.1% 21751704 63.1% 4735356 13.7% 2439120 7.1% 34489665 11.4% Fuelwood and charcoal 31568262 49.6% 23116086 36.3% 8228609 12.9% 698826 1.1% 63611784 21.0% < Roundwood 2198113 27.1% 2960783 36.4% 2759346 34.0% 206898 2.5% 8125141 2.7% Fish food 3823578 22.1% 11797125 68.0% 1178687 6.8% 540952 3.1% 17340342 5.7% 3CTQ Grand total by region 92651677 151268773 43361300 VO15098073 302379823 100.0% Regional share of grand total 30.6% 50.0% 14.3% 5.0% 100.0% Formula: VOD * (1 -(1 -Gini)*PPP in 2003/6000)) ~ 2 Table 3c: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR agriculturalcommodities weighted by the modified welfare indicator (income threshold 6000 PPP $, exponent set as 2) Region Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Commoditiy Com m odity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare of commodity share Rice 4338815 9.2% 39916717 84.4% 2398641 5.1% 655832 1.4% 47310004 22.2% Wheat 1658751 9.0% 11457808 62.2% 1511090 8.2% 3806032 20.6% 18433681 8.6% Maize 4842020 36.3% 3021556 22.7% 4350613 32.7% 1107606 8.3% 13321795 6.2% Barley 292350 21.0% 195439 14.1 % 155668 1 1.2% 747252 53.7% 1390709 0.7% sorghum 2636540 59.2% 1272267 28.6% 397537 8.9% 143984 3.2% 4450328 2.1% Millet 2453098 64.2% 1346668 35.2% 2298 0.1% 19763 0.5% 3821827 1.8% Cassava 7164660 77.5% 757702 8.2% 1324598 14.3% 33 0.0% 9246993 4.3% Potato 428274 11.8% 2185266 60.1% 550165 15.1% 472072 13.0% 3635777 1.7% Sweet potato and yam 3440241 83.7% 513780 12.5% 153534 3.7% 2714 0.1% 4110270 1.9% Banana 1291156 27.6% 2332026 49.9% 998153 21.3% 54225 1.2% 4675560 2.2% Plantain 2416397 89.8% 29190 1.1% 245296 9.1% 0 0.0% 2690883 1.3% Pulses, overall 4508986 29.4% 8719108 56.8% 1441726 9.4% 679190 4.4% 15349010 7.2% Soyabean 175726 2.7% 1103695 16.7% 5303084 80.2% 2781 1 0.4% 6610316 3.1% Groundnut 2647693 30.2% 5872862 66.9% 215778 2.5% 38936 0.4% 8775269 4.1% Coconut 250387 10.9% 1927169 83.9% 118811 5.2% 0 0.0% 2296367 1.1% Beef and buffalo meat 7852640 32.0% 7965449 32.4% 6910054 28.1% 1839815 7.5% 24567958 1 1.5% Sheep and goat meat 3100505 38.2% 3026374 37.2% 382254 4.7% 1617011 19.9% 8126144 3.8% Total milk 5563485 16.1% 21751704 63.1% 4735356 13.7% 2439120 7.1% 34489665 16.2% Overall agriculture per region 55061723 113394780 31194657 13651397 213302556 1 0 QpO % Share of region after modification 25.8% 53.2% 14.6% 6.4% 100.0% 3 n3x> Formula: VOD * (1 -(1 -Gini)* PPP 2003)/6000)) ~ 2 < OQ 67.9% 33 C. & S. America CD 10.7% 14.0% 12.6% 5.4% X WANA 3.9% 6.9% 1.0% 2.4% < < 3k> Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% CD Formula: VOD * (1 - ((1-Gini coefficient)*Income 2003)/6000) ^ 3 Table 4b: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities weighted by the modified welfare indicator (income threshold 6000 PPP $, exponent set as 3) Regional values and shares of commodities Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Share of Com m odity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare of commodity total Rice 3872990 10.2% 31978429 84.6% 1574528 4.2% 385639 1.0% 37811586 15.6% Wheat 1497258 10.6% 9398100 66.4% 963511 6.8% 2287157 16.2% 14146026 5.9% M aize 4336175 43.3% 2232154 22.3% 2792608 27.9% 661649 6.6% 10022586 4.1% Barley 271034 29.7% 159359 17.5% 95455 10.5% 386866 42.4% 912713 0.4% Sorghum 2368878 63.1% 1082910 28.8% 199283 5.3% 105481 2.8% 3756552 1.6% Millet 2187063 65.4% 1141858 34.1% 819 0.0% 15789 0.5% 3345529 1.4% Cassava 6402648 81.7% 537813 6.9% 895138 11.4% 20 0.0% 7835619 3.2% Potato 390039 13.8% 1812404 64.3% 342822 12.2% 272524 9.7% 2817789 1.2% Sweet potato and yam 2975172 85.4% 391447 1 1.2% 115982 3.3% 1539 0.0% 3484140 1.4% Banana 1167976 31.2% 1880480 50.3% 656921 17.6% 33353 0.9% 3738729 1.5% Plantain 2141182 92.3% 17152 0.7% 161760 7.0% 0 0.0% 2320094 1.0% Pulses 4067167 32.0% 7288611 57.4% 948074 7.5% 386612 3.0% 12690463 5.3% Soyabean 152402 3.4% 881620 19.6% 3454748 76.7% 12590 0.3% 4501359 1.9% Groundnut 2368806 32.0% 4872469 65.8% 142526 1.9% 20187 0.3% 7403988 3.1% Coconut 220320 12.9% 1417482 82.8% 73957 4.3% 0 0.0% 1711758 0.7% Beef and buffalo meat 7033895 37.8% 6348658 34.1% 4157306 22.3% 1068251 5.7% 18608110 7.7% Sheep and goat meat 2794179 43.3% 2359874 36.6% 244574 3.8% 1051311 16.3% 6449939 2.7% Total milk 5042621 18.4% 17901246 65.5% 2919130 10.7% 1469529 5.4% 27332526 1 1.3% Fuelwood and charcoal 28318173 53.7% 18298859 34.7% 5586479 10.6% 483461 0.9% 52686972 21.8%^ Roundwood 1916938 32.0% 2158102 36.1% 1791170 29.9% 119863 2.0% 5986074 2.5% g Fish food 3433515 24.3% 9604567 67.9% 763340 5.4% 334407 2.4% 14135830 5.8% x „ Grand total by region 82958432 121763594 27880130 9096228 241698384 1 00.0% Regional share of grand total 34.3% 50.4% 11.5% 3.8% 1 00.0% p(TO CD Formula: VOD * (1 — ((1 — Gini)* PPP 2003)/6000) ~ 3 K) Table 4c: Regional and overall shares of agriculturalcommodities after modification Income threshold set as 6000, exponent as 3 Region Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Commoditiy Com m odity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare ofcommodity share Rice 3872990 10.2% 31978429 84.6% 1574528 4.2% 385639 1.0% 37811586 22.4% Wheat 1497258 10.6% 9398100 66.4% 963511 6.8% 2287157 16.2% 14146026 8.4% Maize 4336175 43.3% 2232154 22.3% 2792608 27.9% 661649 6.6% 10022586 5.9% Barley 271034 29.7% 159359 17.5% 95455 10.5% 386866 42.4% 912713 0.5% sorghum 2368878 63.1% 1082910 28.8% 199283 5.3% 105481 2.8% 3756552 2.2% Millet 2187063 65.4% 1141858 34.1% 819 0.0% 15789 0.5% 3345529 2.0% Cassava 6402648 81.7% 537813 6.9% 895138 11.4% 20 0.0% 7835619 4.6% Potato 390039 13.8% 1812404 64.3% 342822 12.2% 272524 9.7% 2817789 1.7% Sweet potato and yam 2975172 85.4% 391447 1 1.2% 115982 3.3% 1539 0.0% 3484140 2.1% Banana 1167976 31.2% 1880480 50.3% 656921 17.6% 33353 0.9% 3738729 2.2% Plantain 2141182 92.3% 17152 0.7% 161760 7.0% 0 0.0% 2320094 1.4% Pulses, overall 4067167 32.0% 7288611 57.4% 948074 7.5% 386612 3.0% 12690463 7.5% Soyabean 152402 3.4% 881620 19.6% 3454748 76.7% 12590 0.3% 4501359 2.7% Groundnut 2368806 32.0% 4872469 65.8% 142526 1.9% 20187 0.3% 7403988 4.4% Coconut 220320 12.9% 1417482 82.8% 73957 4.3% 0 0.0% 1711758 1.0% Beef and buffalo meat 7033895 37.8% 6348658 34.1% 4157306 22.3% 1068251 5.7% 18608110 1 1.0% Sheep and goat meat 2794179 43.3% 2359874 36.6% 244574 3.8% 1051311 1 6.3% 6449939 3.8% Total milk 5042621 18.4% 17901246 65.5% 2919130 10.7% 1469529 5.4% 27332526 16.2% Overall agriculture per region 49289804 91702065 19739141 8158497 168889508 100.0% Share of region after modification 29.2% 54.3% 11.7% 4.8% 100.0% Formula: VOD * (1 -((1 -Gini)*PPP 2003)/6000) ~3 N> CT Table 5a: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities by production sector, weighted by the modified welfare indicator and by the agricultural producers’ gender (income threshold set as 6000 PPP $, exponent as 2) Production sectors (% of total) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Total Sub-Saharan Africa 13.2% 5.6% 11.5% 1.3% 31.6% Asia 26.5% 10.7% 8.6% 3.9% 49.7% C. & S. America 6.1% 3.8% 3.5% 0.4% 13.8% WANA 2.5% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 4.9% Total 48.3% 22.1% 23.9% 5.7% 100.0% Regional share (% of sector) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Sub-Saharan Africa 27.2% 25.4% 48.2% 22.8% >a Asia 55.0% 48.6% 36.0% 67.6% an>x C. & S. America 12.6% 17.3% 14.6% 6.6% < WANA 5.2% 8.6% 1.2% 3.0% ►d a crta n> Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% u> Formula: VOD * (1 - ((1 -Gini coefficient)*lncome 2003)/6000) ~ 3 * (F + 0.8 M) Table 5b: 2010 values of demand of CGlAR commodities weighted by the modified welfare indicator and by producers’ gender (income threshold set at 6000 PPP $, exponent at 2) Regional values and shares of commodity Sub - Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Share of Com m odity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare of commodity total Rice 3830137 9.5% 34008556 84.3% 1977254 4.9% 543916 1.3% 40359863 15.6% Wheat 1459633 9.4% 9709760 62.2% 1246468 8.0% 3185397 20.4% 15601258 6.0% Maize 4292543 37.7% 2586841 22.7% 3583770 31.5% 911704 8.0% 11374858 4.4% Barley 257596 21.6% 166658 13.9% 128292 10.7% 642230 53.8% 1194775 0.5% Sorghum 2302849 60.1% 1086864 28.3% 326909 8.5% 117624 3.1% 3834245 1.5% Millet 2146542 64.8% 1150349 34.7% 1893 0.1% 16188 0.5% 3314972 1.3% Cassava 6371374 78.5% 652869 8.0% 1090812 13.4% 27 0.0% 8115081 3.1% Potato 381503 12.3% 1865918 60.2% 453329 14.6% 396270 12.8% 3097020 1.2% Sweet potato and yam 3020294 84.0% 443801 12.3% 128780 3.6% 2190 0.1% 3595066 1.4% Banana 1155856 28.8% 1990788 49.6% 822238 20.5% 44638 1.1% 4013521 1.6% Plantain 2145288 90.5% 2491 1 1.1% 201043 8.5% 0 0.0% 2371242 0.9% Pulses 3990830 30.3% 7433390 56.4% 1189054 9.0% 573197 4.3% 13186470 5.1% Soyabean 154429 2.8% 945991 17.2% 4372456 79.5% 23635 0.4% 5496512 2.1% Groundnut 2327808 30.8% 5023512 66.4% 178192 2.4% 33279 0.4% 7562792 2.9% Coconut 223741 11.4% 1643114 83.6% 98056 5.0% 0 0.0% 1964910 0.8% Beef and buffalo meat 6919428 33.1 % 6773758 32.4% 5691049 27.2% 1528464 7.3% 20912698 8.1% Sheep and goat meat 2719878 39.3% 2540329 36.7% 316517 4.6% 1342625 19.4% 6919348 2.7% Total milk 4889712 16.7% 18448177 63.0% 3896559 13.3% 2035217 7.0% 29269666 11.3%> Fuelwood and charcoal 27895409 50.7% 19721075 35.9% 6776091 12.3% 576546 1.0% 54969122 21.2%g Roundwood 1940052 28.0% 2537488 36.6% 2274817 32.8% 175961 2.5% 6928318 2.7%>< Fish food 3375728 22.8% 10031437 67.6% 972885 6.6% 450466 3.0% 14830515 5.7%3 Grand total by region 81800631 128785584 35726464 12599575 258912254 100.0%$ Regional share of grand total 31.6% 49.7% 13.8% 4.9% 100.0% ffqCD Formula: VOD * (1 -((1 - Gini)* PPP 2003)/6000) ~ 2 * (F + 0.8 M) Table 5c: Shares of agriculturalcommoditiesafter modificationfor poverty and producers’gender Income threshold set at 6000, exponent at 2 Region Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Commoditiy Com m odity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare ofcommodity share Rice 3830137 9.5% 34008556 84.3% 1977254 4.9% 543916 1.3% 40359863 22.2% Wheat 1459633 9.4% 9709760 62.2% 1246468 8.0% 3185397 20.4% 15601258 8.6% Maize 4292543 37.7% 2586841 22.7% 3583770 31.5% 911704 8.0% 11374858 6.2% Barley 257596 21.6% 166658 13.9% 128292 10.7% 642230 53.8% 1194775 0.7% sorghum 2302849 60.1% 1086864 28.3% 326909 8.5% 117624 3.1% 3834245 2.1% Millet 2146542 64.8% 1150349 34.7% 1893 0.1% 16188 0.5% 3314972 1.8% Cassava 6371374 78.5% 652869 8.0% 1090812 13.4% 27 0.0% 8115081 4.5% Potato 381503 12.3% 1865918 60.2% 453329 14.6% 396270 12.8% 3097020 1.7% Sweet potato and yam 3020294 84.0% 443801 12.3% 128780 3.6% 2190 0.1% 3595066 2.0% Banana 1155856 28.8% 1990788 49.6% 822238 20.5% 44638 1.1% 4013521 2.2% Plantain 2145288 90.5% 2491 1 1.1% 201043 8.5% 0 0.0% 2371242 1.3% Pulses, overall 3990830 30.3% 7433390 56.4% 1189054 9.0% 573197 4.3% 13186470 7.2% Soyabean 154429 2.8% 945991 17.2% 4372456 79.5% 23635 0.4% 5496512 3.0% Groundnut 2327808 30.8% 5023512 66.4% 178192 2.4% 33279 0.4% 7562792 4.2% Coconut 223741 1 1.4% 1643114 83.6% 98056 5.0% 0 0.0% 1964910 1.1% Beef and buffalo meat 6919428 33.1% 6773758 32.4% 5691049 27.2% 1528464 7.3% 20912698 11.5% Sheep and goat meat 2719878 39.3% 2540329 36.7% 316517 4.6% 1342625 19.4% 6919348 3.8% Total milk 4889712 16.7% 18448177 63.0% 3896559 13.3% 2035217 7.0% 29269666 16.1% Overall agriculture per region 48589442 96495585 25702671 11396601 182184298 100.0% Share of region after modification 26.7% 53.0% 14.1% 6.3% 100.0% Formula: VOD * (1 - ((1 - Gini)* PPP 2003)/6000) ~ 2 * (F + 0.8 M) CP Table 6a: 2010 value of demand of CGIAR commodities by production sector, weighted by the modified welfare indicator and by the rural/urban population distribution (income threshold set at 6000 PPP$, exponent at 2) Production sectors (% of total) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Total Sub - Saharan Africa 12.9% 5.6% 11.3% 1.3% 31.1% Asia 27.1% 11.0% 8.8% 4.0% 50.8% C. & S. America 5.8% 3.7% 3.4% 0.4% 13.2% WANA 2.5% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 4.8% Total 48.4% 22.1% 23.7% 5.8% 100.0% Regional share (% of sector) Region Crops Livestock Forestry Fisheries Sub - Saharan Africa 26.7% 25.1% 47.7% 22.2% > Asia a56.1% 49.7% 36.9% 68.5% aCxD C. & S. America 12.1% 16.6% 14.1% 6.3% < WANA 5.1% 8.6% 1.2% 3.0% aTJOP CD Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Formula: VOD*(1 — ((1 — Gini coefficient)*lncome 2003)/6000) /V2*(R+0.8U) Table 6b: 201 0 value of demand of CGlAR commodities weighted by the modified welfare indicator and by the population distribution (income threshold set at 6000 PPP $, exponent at 2) Regional values and shares of commodity Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Share of Com m odity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare of commodity total Rice 4063377 9.1% 37844741 84.9% 2055608 4.6% 594879 1.3% 44558604 15.8% Wheat 1573928 9.2% 10835138 63.2% 1299980 7.6% 3433049 20.0% 17142096 6.1% Maize 4583760 37.8% 2816934 23.2% 3732853 30.8% 1002716 8.3% 12136262 4.3% Barley 281233 22.3% 183553 14.6% 133572 10.6% 661593 52.5% 1259951 0.4% Sorghum 2490003 59.7% 1205148 28.9% 344040 8.2% 132616 3.2% 4171807 1.5% Millet 2312313 64.1 % 1276534 35.4% 1942 0.1% 1 8564 0.5% 3609352 1.3% Cassava 6728556 78.4% 711869 8.3% 1137497 13.3% 29 0.0% 8577951 3.0% Potato 412381 12.2% 2070468 61.3% 472773 14.0% 423772 12.5% 3379395 1.2% Sweet potato and yam 3215793 83.7% 485680 12.6% 136259 3.5% 2474 0.1% 3840206 1.4% Banana 1238442 28.5% 2192502 50.5% 864558 19.9% 49221 1.1% 4344723 1.5% Plantain 2315532 90.5% 2781 6 1.1% 216609 8.5% 0 0.0% 2559958 0.9% Pulses 4303193 29.8% 8261710 57.3% 1243140 8.6% 608961 4.2% 14417004 5.1% Soyabean 165729 2.9% 1042870 18.1% 4512701 78.5% 24842 0.4% 5746142 2.0% Groundnut 2484050 30.0% 5562381 67.3% 187622 2.3% 34567 0.4% 8268620 2.9% Coconut 234827 1 1.0% 1794139 84.2% 102824 4.8% 0 0.0% 2131790 0.8% Beef and buffalo meat 7427034 33.0% 7529282 33.4% 5917240 26.3% 1659495 7.4% 22533051 8.0% Sheep and goat meat 2938589 38.7% 2851899 37.5% 330531 4.4% 1475761 19.4% 7596780 2.7% Total milk 5281033 16.5% 20561858 64.1% 4058818 12.6% 2193457 6.8% 32095166 11.4% Fuelwood and charcoal 29803601 50.2% 21870954 36.8% 7096244 1 1.9% 646922 1.1% 59417721 2^^%> Roundwood 2062651 27.9% 2787984 37.7% 2351117 31 .8% 188039 2.5% 7389791 2.6%g Fish food 3616508 22.2% 11156820 68.5% 1017787 6.3% 491775 3.0% 16282890 5.8%S Grand total by region 87532532 143070280 37213717 13642731 281459261 100.0% Regional share of grand total 31.1% 50.8% 13.2% 4.8% 1 00.0% p CnT>Q Formula: VOD * (1 - ((1 - Gini)*PPP 2003)/6000) ~ 2 * (R + 0.8 U) CT\ Table 6c: Shares of agriculturalcommodities after modification by poverty and population distribution (income threshold set at 6000 PPP, exponent at 2) Region Sub-Saharan Asia Latin America and West Asia and Overall value Commoditiy Com m odity Africa Share Share Caribbean Share North AfricaShare of commodity share Rice 4063377 9.1% 37844741 84.9% 2055608 4.6% 594879 1.3% 44558604 22.5% Wheat 1573928 9.2% 10835138 63.2% 1299980 7.6% 3433049 20.0% 17142096 8.6% Maize 4583760 37.8% 2816934 23.2% 3732853 30.8% 1002716 8.3% 12136262 6.1% Barley 281233 22.3% 183553 14.6% 133572 10.6% 661593 52.5% 1259951 0.6% sorghum 2490003 59.7% 1205148 28.9% 344040 8.2% 132616 3.2% 4171807 2.1% Millet 2312313 64.1 % 1276534 35.4% 1942 0.1% 18564 0.5% 3609352 1.8% Cassava 6728556 78.4% 711869 8.3% 1137497 13.3% 29 0.0% 8577951 4.3% Potato 412381 12.2% 2070468 61.3% 472773 14.0% 423772 12.5% 3379395 1.7% Sweet potato and yam 3215793 83.7% 485680 12.6% 136259 3.5% 2474 0.1% Banana 3840206 1.9% 1238442 28.5% 2192502 50.5% 864558 19.9% 49221 1.1% 4344723 2.2% Plantain 2315532 90.5% 27816 1.1% 216609 8.5% 0 0.0% 2559958 1.3% Pulses, overall 4303193 29.8% 8261710 57.3% 1243140 8.6% 608961 4.2% 14417004 7.3% Soyabean 165729 2.9% 1042870 18.1% 4512701 78.5% 24842 0.4% 5746142 2.9% Groundnut 2484050 30.0% 5562381 67.3% 187622 2.3% 34567 0.4% 8268620 4.2% Coconut 234827 11.0% 1794139 84.2% 102824 4.8% 0 0.0% 2131790 1.1% Beef and buffalo meat 7427034 33.0% 7529282 33.4% 5917240 26.3% 1659495 7.4% 22533051 1 1.4% Sheep and goat meat 2938589 38.7% 2851899 37.5% 330531 4.4% 1475761 19.4% 7596780 3.8% Total milk 5281033 16.5% 20561858 64.1% 4058818 12.6% 2193457 6.8% 32095166 16.2% Overall agriculture per region 52049773 107254521 26748570 12315995 198368859 100.0% Share of region after modification 26.2% 54.1% 13.5% 6.2% 100.0% Formula: VOD * (1 -((1 - Gini) *P P P 2003)/6000) ~2 * (R + 0.8 U) CP C5~ Annex IV - Page 17 Table 7: CGIAR commodities’share of value of demand (VOD) and its modifications Share of Share of Share of Trend for Commodity VOD modified VOD modified VOD the (z=9000) (z=6000) commodity Rice 17.5% 15.8% 15.6% 1 Wheat 8.2% 6.6% 6.1% i Maize 6.3% 5.1% 4.4% 1 Barley 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 1 Sorghum 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% t Millet 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% t Cassava 1.9% 2.7% 3.1% f Potato 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% i Sweet potato and yam 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% i Sweet potato 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 1 Yam 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% t Banana 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% Plantain 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% t Pulses 3.8% 4.7% 5.1% t Beans 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% Chickpea 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% Pigeon pea 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% Lentil 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Broad beans 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Cowpea 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% Soyabean 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% i Groundnut 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% Coconut 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Beef and buffalo meat 9.4% 8.8% 8.1% 1 Sheep and goat meat 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% Total milk 9.6% 11.1% 11.4% t Fuelwood and charcoal 15.4% 19.5% 21.0% t Roundwood 4.3% 3.0% 2.7% I Fish food 6.1% 5.7% 5.7% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Table 8: Allocation of research funds to CGIAR crops compared to modified values after quantitative analysis Commodity Commodity Share Expenditure Share value, modified in 1996 mill US $ Rice 61795520 32.2% 21.8 24.3% Wheat 25957832 13.5% 9.7 10.8% Maize 19792253 10.3% 12.7 14.1% Barley 2334128 1.2% 3.06 3.4% sorghum 5396817 2.8% 3.6 4.0% Millet 4250653 2.2% 2.6 2.9% Cassava 10657380 5.5% 7.6 8.5% Potato 5122614 2.7% 3.9 4.3% Sweet potato and yam 5525160 2.9% 2.5 2.8% Banana and plantain 8899994 4.6% 7.2 8.0% Beans 8263559 4.3% 4.7 5.2% Chickpea 4722034 2.5% 2.2 2.4% Pigeonpea 1967514 1.0% 1.4 1.6% Lentil** 1180508 0.6% 0.8 0.9% Broad (faba) bean 787006 0.4% Cowpea* 1574011 0.8% 1.0 1.1% Pulses, CGIAR crops ■*■*■*■ 18494632 9.6% 10.1 11.3% Soyabean* 10195349 5.3% 1.7 1.9% Groundnut 10692138 5.6% 3.4 3.8% Coconut 3043205 1.6% n. a. n. a. > 3 Grand total 192157675 100.0% 89.89 100.0% n3> Note: * IITA allocation for soyabean and cowpea split according < to ratio in PS-report 1992, page 161 73 ** CGIAR expenditure for lentils and faba bean can't be split 3 ★ ★ * 0QPulses split according to regional values 1992/44 production data n 00 Table 9: Selected key indicators for population, land area and use, and agriculture by region Landarea Population Population Population Food Food Production Production Rainfed Irrigated Total 10 ~6 ha 1993 2010* Growth Demand Demand Food 1993 Cash 1993 Arable Arable A T3 b 16 (10~6) (10~6) per annum 1993 2010* (10 ^6 ha) (10 ^6 ha) (10 ^6 ha) (10A6 tGE) (10~6 tGE) (10~6 tGE) (10~6 tGE) Sub-Saharan Africa 2241 520 874 3.10% 119 267 112 32 127 6 132 West Asia/North Africa 1253 346 513 2.35% 114 170 100 20 63 26 89 Asia 2003 2927 3687 1.37% 781 1089 888 185 226 134 360 Latin America and 2015 464 593 1.45% 136 186 218 50 107 17 124 Caribbean Overall 7512 4256 5667 1.70% 1150 1712 1317 286 522 183 705 Notes: * FAO AT 2010 study GE: Grain equivalents based on wheat energy (food)/price (cash) > n§x> >—I < TJ P OP CD VO Annex IV - Page 20 Table 10: Selected socioeconomic indicators by region Indicator SSA Asia LAC WANA Absolute value million Population (% of LDC total) 12.2 68.8 10.9 8.1 4256 Number of poor (% of LDC total) 20.8 59.1 13.5 6.7 1332 Share of urban population 28 29 73 55 1515 Daily calorie supply (Kcal/cap, 1988-90) 2096 2441 2686 3011 Calorie supply to requirement (%, 1988-90) 90 109 114 125 Food import dependency ratio (%, 1988-90) 10.5 6 14 40 Income/caput (US $, 1991) 393 525 2461 2081 Income/caput (Int’l $, 1 991) 1049 2448 5371 4471 Arable land (%) 19 51 18 13 705 Irrigated land (%) 3 73 9 14 183 Use of fertilizer (kg/ha) 7.2 82.8 35.1 49.1 Agr. GDP/agr. labourer (US $) 278 277 2340 1710 Agr. GDP/total GDP (%) 32 21 11 15 Agr. land/labour ratio (ha/worker) 5.4 1.0 16.0 10.3 Arable land/labour ratio (ha/worker) 0.8 0.4 2.7 2.3 Deforestation (1988-90, % p.a.) 1.7 0.9 1.4 1.0 16.8 m. ha Total wooded area (1991 -93, m. ha) 739 510 921 52 2222 (closed, open and forest fallow) ANNEX V SYNTHESIS TABLES ON SYSTEMWIDE INITIATIVES/PROGRAMMES 1. Attached are draft tables on systemwide initiatives/programmes prepared in support of the review of CGIAR priorities and strategies. The format follows that agreed to in our meeting with Don Winkelmann, Ted Henzell, and Hans Gregersen on January 26, 1996. Table 1 presents quantitative data on SWI/P budgets and collaboration. Table 2 presents a qualitative synthesis of SWI/P content, management, and expected results, This memorandum summarizes and provides a preliminary analysis of the data presented and recommends steps to be taken to develop a more complete database on Systemwide activities. 2. The data for both tables were drawn from the following sources: Review of Proposals for Systemwide and Ecoregional Initiatives, September 8, 1994 (AGR/TAC:IAR/94/ll); TAC Commentaries on Systemwide Initiatives contained in the Reports of TAC 66, TAC 67, and TAC 68; and a review of the latest versions of SWI proposals (most of these were annexed to Centres’ 1996 Funding Requirements submissions). Table 1. Comments on the table: 3. As noted in Ted Henzell’s Chapter 6 of the draft report on priorities and strategies, the distinction between "initiative" and "programme" costs is ambiguous. This presented problems in apportioning the TAC recommended funding for 1995/96 between these two categories. We have consulted the TAC Commentaries for each recommended allocation and, on the basis of the intent expressed, made an estimate as to how much of the recommended allocation was considered by TAC to be for "initiative" (i.e., design, facilitation) and "programme" (i.e., implementation of research and research-related activities) activities. These estimates will need to be verified or, in cases where an estimate has not been possible, supplied by the centres. 4. The columns for non-CGIAR funds and other IARC costs are gaps in our in-house data. The above cited documentation contains, in some cases, references to actual or anticipated funding from non-CGIAR sources. Given the selective, sometimes tentative, and probably dated nature of these figures, inserting them in the table could result in error. Henzell’s Chapter 6 does make reference to both CGIAR and, in some cases, non-CGIAR resources, apparently based on CG Secretariat data. We are checking these numbers against available in-house sources. However, for the table, it would probably be best to check with the CG Secretariat and/or canvass the centres directly. In that case, we would need to decide whether we want data for individual years, the MTP period, and/or the duration of the initiative/program me. Annex V - Page 2 5. The data on collaborating CGIAR and non-CGIAR organizations is partially incomplete because, in some cases, the initiative had not reached the stage where specific collaborators had been identified/committed. Blank cells in the table generally mean the data are not available for these items. (See, for example, 2.3.1. Tropical America; 4.1. Integrated Pest Management.) 6. Comparing initial MTP allocations with actuals for 1995/1996, TAC has exceeded the initial target in the following cases: 1.1. Genetic Resources 2.1.1. Desert Margins 2.1.2. Africa Humid/Sub-Humid 2.2.1. Rice/Wheat 2.2.2. Asia Humid/Sub-Humid Tropics 2.3.1. Tropical America 2.4.1. Water Husbandry 3.2. Slash and Bum 7. TAC’s initial MTP allocations for these initiatives totalled $4.75 million; actual allocations were $9.44 million, or $4.70 million beyond the plan. The largest divergence was Genetic Resources whose actual allocation was more than three times the MTP target of $1.0 million. In most of the other cases, the target was exceeded on average by $0.30 million. 8. There were two initiatives for which allocations thus far had not reached the MTP level: 1.2. Livestock 1.3. Water Management The MTP initial allocations for these initiatives totalled $5.00 million; actual allocations totalled $3.55 million, or $1.45 million under allocation. 9. There were 6 cases where either no initial MTP allocation was made or the initiative had not been identified at the time MTP funding recommendations were made: 1.4 Property Rights 1.5. Agricultural Indicators 3.1 Mountain Agriculture 3.3 Coastal Environments 4.1 IPM 4.2 SWNM TAC’s subsequent allocations to these initiatives totalled some $3.0 million. Nearly half of this was allocated to the inter-centre initiatives on IPM and SWNM; the balance was divided somewhat evenly between the other four initiatives. Annex V - Page 3 10. Overall comparison of planned vs. actual allocations for all initiatives are summarized below by the four categories of initiatives/programmes used in the table: Category Initial MTP 1995/1996 Over Allocation Allocation Allocation US$ Millions US$ Millions US$ Millions 1. Global 6.00 7.96 + 1.96 (+32%) 2. Ecoregional/Regional 3.25 5.10 + 1.85 (+56%) 3. Global/Cross-Ecoregional 0.75 1.65 + 0.90 (+120%) 4. Other NA 1.30 + 1.30 (NA) Totals 10.00 16.01 + 6.01 (+60%) It is difficult to discern whether these changes in allocation represent shifts in TAC’s prioritization of SWIs, particularly in the absence of any rationale for the initial pattern of allocation. Although category 1 (Global) at nearly $8.0 million represents the largest actual allocation, the two closely related categories 2 (Ecoregional/Regional) and 3 (Global/Cross Ecoregional) together accounted for nearly $7.0 million. This amount would rise to $10.0 million if the Livestock initiative were classified under category 3, where logic would seem to suggest it belongs, rather than category 1 which would correspondingly shrink to $5.0 million. Furthermore, categories 2 and 3 account for about half of the $6.00 million total over allocation. Another way of characterizing this shift is that the combined actual allocation for categories 2 and 3 ($6.75 million) is two-thirds higher than their combined initial MTP targets ($4.0 million). 11. With respect to the data on collaborators, one of TAC’s objectives in encouraging Systemwide activities was to broaden partnerships with non-CGIAR organizations in order to stimulate multi-disciplinary approaches and mobilize additional research resources to address the CG’s new research agenda, particularly in the areas of sustainability and natural resources management. In quantitative terms, it is difficult to verify what the numbers represent. Most Systemwide proposals do not specify in detail the functional roles of the various partners, even when the organizations are identified by name. Thus, terms like "partner" and "collaborator" may connote a broad range of cooperative activities from participation in a workshop to formal agreement to collaborate in joint research. For example, CIP’s plan to implement the Andean component of the Mountain Agriculture initiative through CONDESAN implies, in the absence of any detail, extraordinarily high numbers of collaborators in all of the categories shown. Given the stage of the initiative, it is doubtful whether the actual numbers of collaborators would correspond to these figures. In contrast, the SWNM initiative shows equally high numbers of collaborators, but these have Annex V - Page 4 been identified in the context of theme-specific research consortia and can be taken more seriously. To some extent, then, the numbers may not be strictly comparable. 12. With this caveat, a few patterns in the data are observable. The aggregate number of IARC collaborations (88) on the one hand, and NARS/RARS (129) on the other, is roughly balanced and even slightly leveraged with a ratio of 1:1.5. The aggregate number of ARI collaborations at 56 equates to an IARC:ARI ratio of 1.5:1. But the number of NGOs is negligible if one considers that all but 2 of the total 25 are identified with CONDESAN. The only real anomaly in the ratios for individual initiatives would appear to be Water Husbandry which, at this stage, seems to involve no other identified IARCs. To reach any firm conclusions about the significance of any of these numbers, one would need to compare the baseline ratios of centres-to-partners for centre-based research to determine whether the Systemwide approach has added significantly to the CGIAR’s external "reach." 13. In terms of multi-disciplinarity, the quantitative data are not informative. This would require a breakdown by areas of institutional disciplinary specialization to determine whether centres have been able to involve non-traditional partners in such areas as natural resource management, etc. Existing in-house information is not adequate to make such an analysis and would require canvassing the centres. Table 2. 14. This table attempts to synthesize a great deal of qualitative information into the 6 narrative columns explicating objectives, governance, priority setting, resource allocation & accountability, monitoring & evaluation, and outputs & impacts. In some cases, Systemwide proposals lent themselves well to this exercise; in others, it was necessary to reconstruct the information from the proposals since they were not structured into these categories. Thus, in some instances, the information in the table is more explicit than that contained in the proposal. We have also attempted to classify which CGIAR activities are covered by the initiative. All initiatives cover more than one category; however, not all categories are covered with equal weight. It might be useful to have the centres weight the categories to see where the centre of gravity of each initiative really lies, recognizing that there may be spillovers to other activities. Inasmuch as we do not yet have information on what has been accomplished beyond the design stage of SWI/Ps, the outputs & impacts column specifies planned rather than actual products/services to be produced and their anticipated effects. Comments on the table. • Objectives 15. In evaluating SWIs for purposes of resource allocation, TAC initially established criteria emphasizing the global relevance of their ecoregionally-based results/methodologies, their degree of multi-disciplinarity, and their extent of multi-institutional collaboration. It later added to these criteria complementarities, avoiding duplication, encouraging specialization, economies of scale, and internalizing externalities. A perusal of the objectives column permits only a few inferences to be drawn: Annex V - Page 5 • As might be expected, the globalization of results and/or methodologies is mentioned as an explicit objective primarily in the global and cross- ecoregional categories (initiatives 1.1, 1.4, 1.5, 2.4.1, 3.1., 3.2, and 4.2). The ecoregionally-focused initiatives tend to emphasize extrapolation of results at the regional level. • Multi-disciplinarity is mentioned or evident in the objectifies of virtually all initiatives. • The collaboration criterion has already been discussed in the context of Table 1. Here it may be noted that strengthening collaborative mechanisms or building the capacity of partners is mentioned as an explicit objective in virtually all initiatives. Beyond these inferences, the information synthesized in the table cannot shed light on the more operational questions of research efficiency implicit in TAC’s later criteria. Answers to such questions ought logically to be posed in the programme phase when observable results begin to materialize. • Governance. 16. TAC’s guidelines for SWIs have little to say on the subject of governance beyond emphasizing the need for "thorough consultation" among partners to ensure durable long-term collaboration. The Committee underscored the importance of consultation by providing seed money to help cover the transaction costs involved. 17. At least two of the initiatives, SGRI and IPM, may be considered as having "in- house" governance in the sense that they are overseen in each case by an Inter-Centre Working Group. Non-CGIAR organizations are not involved in these mechanisms as they function primarily to coordinate inter-centre activities. 18. The Livestock initiative also seems to approximate above model. The IC-LPG’s membership is limited to the lead centres for each consortium, even though non-CGIAR collaborators are involved in the programme of work. Collaborative links are thus at the working rather than the governance level where decisions are taken on priorities and resource allocation. A similar arrangement seems to be envisaged in the Property Rights initiative where the Steering Committee would be composed only of participating CGIAR centres and "outside experts," and the Mountain Agriculture initiative which is formally led by IARCs with invited participation by other participating institutions. 19. Most other initiatives — particularly the large multi-consortia types — adopt a broader approach, involving in their governing mechanisms a mix of IARCs, NARS/RARS, and donor representatives. In the cases of the Desert Margins and Inland Valleys initiatives, chairmanship of the governing body rotates among NARS representatives. The African Highlands initiative is overseen by the governing body of ASARECA. 20. It should be emphasized, however, that even when membership in governing mechanisms is broadly shared, steering committees typically meet only annually and day-to- Annex V - Page 6 day decision-making and management of the initiative are usually lodged in a coordinating unit backstopped by the convening centre. 21. It is worth observing that in several cases, fairly elaborate multi-tiered mechanisms involving committees from the global to the national, regional, and local levels have been set up (e.g., Desert Margins, Africa Humid-Sub-Humid, Rice/Wheat, African Highlands, Slash and Bum). This approach has evidently been necessitated by the geographic spread of these initiatives and by a participatory approach to research planning and implementation. These initiatives would be prime candidates for assessing the costs and benefits of transacting the business of ecoregional research in a highly consultative mode. 22. There is some variation in the functions of governing mechanisms. Some would appear to have primarily an advisory and coordinating role (e.g., SGRI, IPM, Agricultural Indicators, Asia Humid Sub-Humid) while others in varying degrees define the programme of work, set priorities, allocate resources, and monitor activities and results (e.g., Livestock, Property Rights, Desert Margins, Africa Humid Sub-Humid, Inland Valleys, Rice/Wheat, Tropical America, Water Husbandry, Mountain Agriculture, African Highlands, Slash and Bum, SWNM). Within these two general approaches to governance there appears to be variation in the degree to which decision-making with respect to research planning, budgeting, and implementation is decentralized. Priority Setting 23. There is also variation in approaches to priority setting. Formalized approaches appear to be the exception rather than the mie. Thus, SLI’s use of external peer review of proposals coupled with a scoring procedure based on predetermined criteria to select and allocate resources to specific projects does not appear to be replicated in any of the other initiatives, although scoring is also used in the Rice/Wheat initiative. In most cases, priorities are set through consensus achieved in planning/programme design workshops involving the convening centre and partners, either before or after an initiative proposal has been approved by TAC. In a few cases, the criteria for priority setting are specified (e.g., IPM, Mountain Agriculture); in quite a few others we have no information on the specifics of the priority setting process. In at least one case (Asia Humid Sub-Humid), priority setting for ecoregional research is itself an objective of the initiative and a systematic approach is to be employed for prioritizing issues for further R&D. There may be scope for extrapolating from this kind of exercise to other present or future initiatives. In general, this is an area where it might be useful to canvass the centres for more information. Resource Allocation & Accountability 24. TAC’s guidelines for SWI’s stipulate that convening and participating centres’ annual programme and budget submissions include progress reports on implementation of initiatives. As is evident from the table, this is an area in which information is generally deficient. The resource allocation process is usually not described in detail beyond indicating that the steering committee has responsibility for this function. The convening centre normally assumes responsibility for financial reporting. However, programme and budget reports usually do little more than indicate the amount allocated or expended against a particular activity (e.g., "facilitation"). Particularly lacking are narrative descriptions of the receipt and Annex V - Page 7 disposition of non-CGIAR resources. This, again, is an area where more information is required. Monitoring & Evaluation 25. TAC has indicated that it has the responsibility for monitoring and reviewing the outputs of Systemwide and ecoregional initiatives. Yet, it is evident from the table that we have virtually no information on monitoring and evaluation procedures being used for initiatives beyond the identification, normally, of the steering committee or the convening centre as the entity responsible for this function. That it is usually restricted to an annual meeting suggests that evaluation is not envisaged as a routine process integrally related to research planning and implementation, but rather as a means of reporting results to stakeholders. Much more information is needed on the methodologies, if any, that are being employed. Projected Outputs & Impacts 26. From the standpoint of accountability TAC has a reasonably good record in this, the final column of the table, of what the Systemwide initiatives promise to deliver. As indicated earlier, in some cases it has been necessary to state the outputs more explicitly than the proposals have. It would be good to have the centres verify them. As a general observation, it is evident that centres tend to carefully limit the deliverables to outputs and do not go on to define causal linkages to the impacts which are implicit in their statements of purpose in column 1. It may well be that TAC’s review of Systemwide activities would want to define accountability strictly in terms of outputs. If there is an inclination to push the review further in the direction of impact assessment, it might be useful to link it to the work of the IAEG and the CG Secretariat’s new project reporting system, both of which will, in any case, require centres to develop measurable indicators of project success, and document wherever possible the impacts of outputs on intended beneficiaries. Recommended Next Steps 27. This synthesis has identified a number of ambiguities or gaps in our data on SWIs. The tables as currently drafted should be submitted to centres to verify/correct the information recorded. To complete the picture and as an aid to TAC’s planned review of Systemwide activities in 1998-2000, We would suggest simultaneously canvassing the centres for the following information: • Estimates of "initiative" and "programme" costs met by the TAC allocation. • Non-CGIAR funds and other IARC costs for individual years, MTP period, and/or duration of the initiative. • Numbers of collaborator s/partners for initiatives based on a functional definition of these entities. • Estimated baseline ratios of centres-to-partners of various kinds for centre-based research. Annex V - Page 8 • Disciplinary specializations of partner institutions (quantified). • Weighting of the CGIAR activity codes covered by each initiative. • Detailed information on centres’ priority setting resource allocation, and monitoring & evaluation processes. Annex V - Page 9 SYSTEMWIDE AND ECOREGIONAL/REGIONAL INITIATIVES/PROGRAMMES 1996 (Funding Allocations/Recommendations in US$ Millions) TABLE 1 Systemwide Initiatives/Programmes Initial TAC TAC Init­ Pro­ Non- Other No. Convening MTP Ree Ree iative gramme CGIAR I ARCs ’ No. NARS No. No. Centre Alloc. 1995 1996 Cost* Costs Funds Costs IARCs RARS ARU NGOs 1. Global 1.1. Genetic Resources IPGRI 1.00 1.74 1.60 1.2. Livestock URI 4.00 0.50 2.80 0.50 *2.80 5 17 4 1.3. Water Management UMI 1.00 0.20 0.00 0.20 (Proposal Pending) (IFPRI) 0.05 1.4. Property Rights IFPRI NA 0.20 0.20 0.40 1.5. Agricultural Indicators ISNAR NA 0.00 0.67 2 IFPRI Subtotal 6.00 2.69 5.27 2. Ecoregional/Regional 2.1. Africa 2.1.1. Desert Margins ICRISAT 0.50 0.05 0.50 0.55 6 10 5 2.1.2. Humid/Sub-Humid Tropics IITA 0.50 2.1.2a Moist Savanna IITA 0.35 0.35 0.35 4 5 2.1.2b Humid Forest 2.1.2c Inland Valleys WARDA 0.15 0.35 2 7 3 2.2. Asia 2.2.1. Indo-Gangetic Plains ICRISAT 0.40 0.40 0.20 0.30 3-5 4 4-6 Rice/Wheat 2.2.2. Humid/Sub-Humid Tropics IRRI 0.70 0.30 0.70 1.0 10 3 2.3. Latin America/Caribbean Annex V - Page 10 Systemwide luitiatives/Programmes Initial TAC TAC Init­ Pro­ Non- Other No. Convening MTP Ree Ree iative gramme CGIAR IARCs’ No. NARS No. No. Centre Alloc. 1995 1996 Costs Costs Funds Costs IARCs RARS ARIs NGOs 2.3.1. Tropical America CIAT 0.75 0.15 0.90 0.15 0.90 2.4. WANA 2.4.1. Water Husbandry ICARDA 0.40 0.10 0.60 0.10 1 11 3 Subtotal 3.25 1.50 3.60 3. Global/C ross-Eco regional 3.1. Mountain Agric. CLP NA 0.20 0.15 0.35 3.1.1. L.A. Andean CIP 13 34 6 23 3.1.2. E. African Highlands ICRAF 0.25 0.25 10 10 2 1 3.1.3. Asian Highlands ICIMOD NA (Proposal Pending) 3.2. Slash and Bum ICRAF 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.40 7 9 1 1 (CIFOR) NA 0.10 0.10 0.20 3.3. Coastal Environments ICLARM NA ■0.30 0.05 (Proposal Pending) Subtotal 0.75 0.70 0.95 4. Others 4.1. Integrated Pest Mgt. ICWG NA 0.20 0.20 0.40 10 4.2. Soil, Water, Nutrient CIAT NA 0.90 14 22 24 Mgt. IBSRAM Subtotal 0.20 1.10 TOTAL 10.0 5.09 10.92 b b c88 c129 c56 '25 * ILRI: Includes 0.2Ò tor design of 1997 projects. lCLARM:Tentative allocation only; no more than 0.05 to be expended in 1996 for proposal development. k Estimated partitioning of initiative and programme costs is incomplete and, therefore, not totalled. ' Institutions may collaborate in more than one initiative; totals, therefore, represent numbers of collaborations. NA: Not Applicable. Annex V - Page 11 SYSTEMWIDE AND ECOREGIONAL/REGIONAL INITIATIVES/PROGRAMMES 1996 TABLE 2 Sy» temwlde Inllbttl ve*/Frogntrnm«** Convening CGI Alt Activity Governance Priority Sotting Resource Allocation A Centre No. Accountability Monitoring it Evaluation Projected Output* St Impact* 1. Global 1.1. Genetic Resources IPG RI 1.0 The Systemwide Genetic Resources The independently manage Resources for centre-managed Evaluation activities are SGRP outputs cut across 15 2.0 Initiative (SGRI) is an integral components of SGRP activities are components of SGRP are allocated considered outside of the Purpose: CGIAR centres and hence are too 3.0 component of SGRP. Both are planned by the individual by the centres individually within scope of SGRP. numerous to list here. See IPGRI, 4.0 convened by IPGRI. participating centres. their TAC-approved budgets. Participating centres receive Programme Plans A Funding Improve coordination of the CGIAR's genetic resources research, 5.0 Expenditures for genetic resources oversight from their conservation activities, strategies and technologies, documentation, Requirements for 1996, AppendixSGRP is governed by a steering SGRI*» IPGRI-managod activities activities (conservation, research, respective boards on the n. information and training committee, the Inter-Centre are formulated on the basis of the training, information A public management of those Working Group on Genetic recommendations of TAC’s Stripe awareness, physical plant components of the Objectives: SGRI outputs are summarized in Resources (ICWG-GR), which Study of Genetic Resources in the operations) by all centres are programme for which they advises on policy, strategy, and CGIAR and those of the ICWG- reported the above document and include: in tabular form in are responsible. • Coordinate and oversee the development of the CGIAR’s Systemwide management of genetic resources GR. The latter also identifies IPGRI*» annual Programme Plans Genetic Resources Programme (SGRP) • Development of a Systemwide work in the CGIAR. IPGRI specific collaborative activities and and Funding Requirements Information is not available Information Network for Genetic provides its secretariat and the lead centres for those submission to TAC. on the monitoring and • Establish a systemwide information network on genetic resources and a Resources (SINGER) to ensure programme leader in the person of activities. evaluation of SGRI permanent secretariat at IPGRI to service the Inter-Centro Working Group on compatibility among centre’s its director-general. The Group Resource allocation for IPGRI- activities.Generic Resources (KJWG-GR). genetic resources data bases and meets an an annual basis. managod SGRI activities is international access thereto. proposed in the context of the • Undertake collaborative activities, including capacity buikiing ani SGRP programme components are training, Centre’s annual programme and • Information and public in the areas of ex situ gcnebank/conscrvalion research, In situ independently managed by conservation budget request to TAC. awareness products including research, information management, and policy research, and participating centres, with oversight Allocations for collaborativesocioeconomic analysis. brochures, reports, displays at by their respective boards. An activities under SGRI are made by international meetings, a series of inventory of current activities is the ICWG-GR. videos, and an annual report.• Undertake public awareness activities including production of an annual contained in IPGRI, Programme generic resources programme report Plans A Funding Requirements for (NB: A statement of priority • Conduct of an external review of 1996, Appendix H. setting and resource allocation technical, scientific, and financial modalities for SGRP and SGRI is aspects of centre genebanks; SGRI functions to ensure adequate not available to the TAC identification of constraints to and coordination of SGRP and enable Secretariat.) certain high priority opportunities for increasing the collaborative quality of services offered. activities to be initiated. It is also the primary interface between the • Development of standards, CGIAR and collaborating partner methodologies, initiatives, and institutions on generic resources other instruments in support of globally. genetic resources work of CGIAR • Collaborativo research outputs in the areas of ex situ genebank/ conservation research, In situ conservation research, information management, policy issues, and socioeconomic analysis. £ •I Ì 8 UÌ a <* f 4 S * a '5 ■« f 3 O 1 ? Ufa a 1 4-8 4 WS iI 2 4 4 I1f3 1I lI l* §3 111llllllilllfa ? I ijldi Ifij £> i*il I £ a, H ill111 - ^ 3*C/5 s : 1M il•5? f: jlj 12 1! 2> 3* 3 3® u 2 9 3fi3 I 4 ll i j!I Uh ■U a? ■s • I g 1 51 1 if! * li! II1Is 8 H 111I • • • Annex V - Page 13 System wide Initiative*/Program me»* Convening: CGIAK Activity Cmtf No, Governance Priority Setting Resource Allocation St Accountability Monitoring A Evaluation Projected Output* A impact* 1.3. Water Management UMI NA NA NA NA NA NA (Proposal Pending) (IFPRD Annex V - 14 Systemwide InltUUv**/Pr«*nsn»ne** Convening : CG1AR ActivityCentre No. Governance Priority Setting Resource Allocai km St Accountability Monitoring St Rvaluadon Prelected Output* St Impact* 1.4. Property Rights IFPRI 1.2 (a) A Secretariat hosted by IFPRI The Steering Committee would The Steering Committee would The Steering Committee Planned outputs from the s ot I « Z I III,, s ì liE K ? 5 |S 3 -3 4 4 s ?l1 1 il z li il mi ■8 n! g II 8l-B M 8 I ie 1 £ ■e 9 I 1 j■a 8 | SsI ÌJISÌ miiiJiiJi Lfi E | 8 I ls?i5. < È u< i ! c H E E ■8 8 8 £ I 1 I « s H 2«:3 ri 1 a I Annex V - 18 Convening: CG1AR Activity Systemwide Inltb»tlv*s/l‘rogn»mm*s* Centre No, Governance Priority Setting Resource AI local ion St Accountability Monitoring St Evaluation Projected Outputs it Impacts 2.I.2.C. Inland Valleys WARDA 1.2 (a) Governance rests on three A system of bottom-up priority The Steering Committee selects Internal evaluation of the • Creation of a regional critical 2.0 principles: equality, inter­ setting based on the research research proposals developed by consortium programme is a mass of competent researchers; Purpose^): 3.0 disciplinarity, and mutual benefit. priorities of individual countries, National Coordinating Units to be continuous process: the enhanced capacity of national 5.1 Oversight is provided by an Annual weighted and aggregated to the funded by consortium research Annual Workshop evaluates scientists; strengthened Imh Assist national and international research institutes to collaborate in the 5.2 Workshop (AW) comprised of regional level, is employed. The grants. The grants are cn-going research and between farmers, extension development and testing of integrated soil, water, and crop management representatives of all countries and Annual Workshop assigns specific administered by the CCU. coordinating activities; the services (including NGOs), and technologies • adapted to the needs and resources of rice-based smallholder international partners involved. research responsibilities to Steering Committee researchers.farmers - to improve the sustainable agricultural productivity of inland Management functions are handled participating institutes based an critically reviews the valleys in Sub-Saharan Africa by a Steering Committee elected by analyses of their respective scientific quality of the • A multi-level/year master plan the AW comprised of represent­ comparative advantage. research carried out. for inland valley research Objectives): atives of NARS and lead External reviews are specifying priorities/strategics for institutions, and chaired by an planned after 3 years (1996) complementary regional re-search • Develop a structure for cooperation between NARS, IARCs, and other elected NARS representative. It and at the end of the 5-year by NARS and IARCs. institutions to define common research priorities and to conduct develops long-term research/training programme (1998). The multidisciplinary research on inland valleys. plans based on AW priority setting, programme’s objectives, • Increased understanding of cvahiatcs/sclects research proposals mode of implementation, agronomic, lie, and• Develop common methodologies for research, data storage and for consortium support, and and finances (transparency institutional factors that affect more interpretation, and the extrapolation and transfer of results. supervises implementation of and accountability) will be intensive and sustainable use of activities. A Consortium examined. inland valleys.* Implement complementary tmilrìdìmriplinaiy aginecologi cal Coordinating Unit has research characterization with subsequent classification of inland valleys and land use. responsibilities and management, • A multi-scale agroecological finance, information and liaison • Develop zona lion for Wcst/Cenlral Africa, and lest improved low cost water management technologies. functions. A Consortium including a comprehensive inland Coordinator, an agroocologist based valley classification system, based • Selectively transfer and test agronomic technologies at farmers’ field level at the convening centre, provides on bio-physical and socioeconomic in inland valleys. scientific and administrative factors. leadership. National Coordinating Uni ts/Coordina tors have • A description of idcotypes of information, proposal, fundraising, crops, cropping systems, and and meeting functions. National farming systems; integrated seni, Coordinators participate in the Annual water, and crop management Workshop. technologies for various agroecological zones; and improved biophysical and socioeconomic models. • Idcotypes of integrated management strategies for inland valleys. • A multi-level master plan for inland valley development, specifying prioritics/slrategies, to improve planning & resource allocation. • Use of multi-scale agro­ ecological zona ilon for W/C Africa for improved development planning. • Increased efficiency in use of human/financial resources. Annex V - Page 19 Sy$t*mwld« Inlttadvee/Programmee* Convening CGI AR Activity Governane* Priority Setting Resource Allocation & Centre No. Accountability Monitoring A Evaluation Projected Outputs St Impact* 2.2. Asia 2.1. Indo-Gangctic Plains 1CRISAT 1.0 National conveners would allocate Projects of differing substantive The convening centre would The RSC would monitor the • Characterization of rice-wheat Rioe/Wbeal 1.2 (a) research tasks and resources across focus (e.g., productivity trends, provide on a cost recovery basis effectiveness of the initiative 1.2(b) institutions, coordinate information soil fertility, water management, administrative, office systems at different research sites.and in achieving its goals. The Purposefs): 1.2 (c) sharing, establish linkages between ecological inpacts, policy options) logistical support for the Facilitator would also • Development of appropriate and 2.0 rice and wheat sectors, encourage would be prioritized by country Facilitator and Facilitation Unit, review initiative research improved crop establishment • Increase food production in the Indo-Gangetic region by increasing 4.0 multidisciplinary research. A based on comparative advantage establish and provide the financial and report to the RSC and methods for rice and wheat.productivity of rice-wheat cropping systems through the introduction of new 5.1 Regional Steering Committee using a scoring model in which accounting of a multidonor RTCC.technologies suitable for the fanners of the region. 5.2 (RSC), serviced by a Facilitation countries rate their capabilities and account in a bank acceptable to the 5.4 Unit backstopped by IRR1 and resources for addressing research RSC • Improved sustainability of long­ for deposit of donor funds, term soil fertility for rice-wheat • Guide policy and the strategic research framework to address emerging CIMMYT and administered by issues previously identified by a and authorize the Facilitator to systems. sustainability and productivity issues and facilitate collaboration between ICRISAT and a Regional Technical NARS/IARC regional workshop. draw on the account in accordance agricultural researchers and technicians in the region. Coordinating Committee (RTCC), with the directions of the RSC, • Improved water management for would provide policy guidance and and provide the RSC and donors intensive rice-wheat systems.Objective^): overall initiative direction; and an annual independently audited endorse research priorities, report of the use of funds under • Improved understanding of the • Locate areas most seriously threatened by productivity and sustainability workplans A budgets and monitor the mullidooor account. ecological consequences of issues; diagnose the biological and physical causes of these problem; effectiveness. RTCC would work prolonged and intensive cultivation develop, test and promote implementation of more attainable, high with NARS to develop collaborative of rice-wheat.productivity cropping systems; research programmes and prepare workplans A budgets for RSC • Identification of policy options • Establish a collaborative research manageaeot nrahanism to foster decision. RSC membership would to enhance sustainable resourceregional cooperation among rice-wheal specialists and experts in othsr social, biological and physical disciplines to comprise NARS, IARCs, donors, management in rice-wheat systems.address high priority, post-Grccn and the Initiative Facilitator, with chairmanship rotating amually • Formation of an alliance of among NARS representatives. scientific and technical experts to • Train and strengthen national programme staff in new skills and RTCC membership would comprise address issues of sustainable methodologies; develop linkages between national, regional, and intcmatkxml NARS and 1ARC representatives productivity in rice-wheat fuming programmes toward this end. and the Facilitator. RTCC would systems in the Indo-Gangetic Plain.meet twice a year under rotating NARS chairmanship. Annex V - 20 Sy*l®mwide Inltbitlv*s/Programmes* Converting CGIAK Activity Centre No. Governance Priority Setting Resource Allocailoa St Accountability Monitoring St Evaluation projected Output* St Impact* 2.2.2. Humid/Sub-Humid Tropics IRRI 1.1 Governance of the initiative would Priority setting for ccoregional Information not specified in The Council would have Outputs: 1.2 (a) rest with a Council for Collaborative R&D is the second of the four proposal. general oversight of the Puipoac(s): 1.2(b) Rice Research in Asia. Its functions pn*x»cd initiative objectives (See initiative. The Eoorcgional * Knowlodgp/data bases «nd GIS 2.0 would include promoting Purposcs/Objectives). It would be Systems Coordinator would maps presenting alternative • Develop an Ecoregional Action Plan using s system»-based operational 3.0 collaborative research to serve the accomplished via a workshop be responsible to the scenarios of land uso under model for ecoregional research that addresses the link between agriculture 4.0 needs of the Asian region; guiding involving major stakeholders in the Council for monitoring different constraints and their and other sectors and stresses the role of all the major stakeholders in ths 5.4 and strengthening established region and prospective IARC and progress of the EAP and potential for resolution by R&D; warm humid/sub-bumid tropics and subtropics of Asia. consortia and networks; developing NARS collaborators. A systems ensuring the relevance of litizatkn of stallholders to the concepts for an ccoregional analysis of the ecorcgioo- outputs. Regular monitoring ccoregional concept; strengthened Objective^): approach to research in rice and employing simulation modelling of workshops would be held to collaborative mechanisms/new rice-based fanning systems; and relevant crops, geographic evaluate progress of the partnerships between LARCs/NARS • Conduct cx ante analysis of ecoregional issues and knowledge gaps and harmonizing the views of NARS and strengthen information systems, and multiple research conducted by the collaborative mechanisms for ecoregional activities. providing feedback to lARCs st key sites.and goal optimization-would be Working Groups to meet the the CGIAR on ccoregional • Specify R&D conducted to identify research priorities identified in the • Prioritization of ecoregional priorities and develop an ecoregional action plan to respond agricultural research needs. The issues that are ccoregional in EAP. An IRRI cote project issues by the major regional to ecoregional issues. Council would meet annually and be •cope; these issues would then bo would provido technical and stakeholders; a well-endorsed R&D comprised of NARS leaders having prioritized for further R&D into logistical support for the Ecoregional Action Plan (EAP); • Implement action plan in a participatory mode to meet research priorities; responsibility for rice and all other sustainable agricultural strategy analysis, prioritization, strengthened research sites for synthesize R&D results; create a supportive policy environment for agricultural research in their and technology. knowledge synthesizing, and ecoregional work.ecoregional research. respective countries. monitoring aspects of the initiative. It would also • Research-monitoring mechanism • Develop and implement monitoring mechanisms to evaluate improvements Working Groups would be serve stakeholders, liaise in place to address prioritized in the ecorcgioo. organized for each of the research with the Council, and ecoregional issues; knowledge themes identified by the EAP. organize issue-focused generated by research teams to workshops at intervals to address priorities; knowledge to An Ecoregional Systems assess progress and endorse support policy environments Coordinator would be recruited with synthesis of results. favouring NRM for sustainable terms of reference to be determined agriculture.by initiative partners. The Coordinator would be responsible to the Council • Mechanism to ensure utility of but be based at the convening centre to facilitate linkage utility of ccoregional research outputs; improved systems of with its systems analysis group. technology for resolving specific ecoregional issues. Impacts: • Improved total productivity of •elected ecosystems. • More focused and rationalized research on the foundations of sustainable production systems. • Strengthened cooperation between and within national and international partnerships for research on ecoregional issues. Annex V - Page 21 Systemwide InltbUvee/Prognunme** Convening CGIAK Activity Centre No» Governance Priority Setting Resource Allocation A Accountability Monitoring A Evaluation Protected Output* * Impact* 2.3. Latin America/Caribbean 2.3.1. Tropical America CIAT 1.2 (a) The convening centre would be A common research agenda would The convening centre would be The convening centre would Outputs:2.0 responsible for overall initiative be developed through a scries of responsible for financial reporting. be responsible for technical Purpose^): 3.0 execution and coordination of collective and bilateral The "indicative* initiative budget reporting of initiative 4.0 consortia activities. An Ecoregicnal consultations between • Fnhanood capacity for cross- the specifies consultation costs and activities. The ESC would country research prioritization, • Improve the management of natural resources devoted to agriculture in 5.1 Steering CommiIter. (ESQ convening centre and resources associated with projected have the authority to review targeting and extrapolation through Tropical America (TA) in order to permanently reduce poverty and hunger, 5.2 comprised of national, regional, and representatives of existing outputs. (Allocation process not consortia activities to ensure development of comprehensive maintain resourco quality, and h agricultural productivity. 5.4 IARC representatives would oversee agroocosystem consortia specified.) their consistency with environmental and agricultural land initiative execution and throughout the region. Workplans initiative objectives and use data bases/modcls. Objectives): management. It would meet and proposals for future activities strategies.onoc/ycar and elect its own chair. would also be developed on the • Improved methods for research • Enhance the effectiveness of agricultural and natural resources Project activities would be executed basis of these consultations. management research in Tropical America by improving the capacity on technology development and to by agroecosystem consortia overseen (Details of the priority setting policy at agro-ecosystems level define and understand productivity problems in agriculture. by their respective steering criteria and process arc not through better targeting and committees. Decentralized contained in the proposal.) • Develop and adapt extrapolation.suitable solutions to those productivity problems and management of the initiative would extrapolate results among agroecosystems through the development of be coupled with provision of • More effective methods for georeferenced information systems and analysis. centralized services by the identifying and prioritizing convening centre including agricultural and natural resource information, facilitation, and data problems in priority watersheds. services. • Strengthened national capacity to manage/use georeferenced models and data for prioritizing and conducting resource and agricultural research. Inpacts: • More effective integration of IARC’. technology & NRM research with problems/opportunities in Tropical America. • Enhanced NARS capacity to identifying priorities in national/regional agricultural research planning/inplcmcntation. • Availability to farmers of technology Sc policy options to increase productivity, incomes, and sustainability of resources. Annex V - 22 Systemwide InltUdvee/Programrae** Convening CGIAK Activity Centre No, Governance Priority Setting Resource Allocation A Accountability Monitoring A Evaluation Projected Output# A Impact# 2.4. WANA 2.4.1. Water Husbandry ICARDA 1.2 (a) The convening centre would play a Research priorities, defined as four The initiative budget would be The convening centre would • Appraisals of indigenous water 1.2(b) major research role, manage and "strategic research themes" (water allocated in three parts: (a) have overall responsibility Purposed): husbandry (WH) systems and 1.2 (c) coordinate the initiative, and provide in present land-use systems; water support to research activities for project reporting. improved information/I real 2.0 liaison with participating resources and potential for water according to research themes NRCMs involving Promote sustainable and profitable agricultural production in dry raided 5.1 institutions. NARS would designate capture; options for water expertise om user perceptions of specified in the proposal; (b) participating institutions WH techniques, socio-economic area* of the WANA region through the efficient and sustainable utilization of 5.2 National Coordinators to lead utilization; and dissemination, project-wide activities such as would focus on specific aspects of construction A available supplica of water from rainfall, groundwater, ani surface sources. 5.4 national teams participating in the development and inpact), were workshops and training; and (c) themes/activities, synthesize requirements, project. Coherence across themes identified through a consultative facilitation by the convening results, and report findings Objectives(s): feasibility of water husbandry and regions would be achieved workshop with regional NARS and centre. Research funds would be to the Steering Committee modifications to production through an annual meeting of a international experts and a follow­ allocated on a pre-set percentage annually systems, and risk management.• Conduct strategic research in collaboration with national, regional and Steering Committee chaired by up literature review to identify basis to the four strategic themes. international centres to increase at the regional and global levels the technical ICARDA'a DDG/Rcsearch and gaps in existing knowledge. Allocations could be adjusted by • Improved methodologies for knowledge base (methodologies) for improved and sustainable efficiencies in comprised erf the National Research on these themes would the Steering Committee annually. identification of WH sites of high the capture and utilization of water for agricultural purposes in dry Coordinator* and ICARDA'a Project be formulated into annual The project-wide activities budget Coordinator. The Committee would workplans via National and would potential; sites for further be administered by the experimentation identified by such • Conduct applied, multidisciplinary, and participatory research to adapt available methodologies to the discuss and approve workplans for Regional Coordination Mootings Project Coordinator on the advice methodologies.realities of nalional/local circumstances - the following year and advise the (NRCM) involving ICARDA and of the Steering Committee. The social, economic, and political - in the WANA region to facilitate their Project Coordinator on the its NARS partners. The plans facilitation budget would be used • Provisional recommendations Aprofitable and sustainable application by farmers and other resource users. utilization of the budget. would, in turn, be approved by the by the convening centre to support training extension materials for Steering Committee. a project scientist. The centre would also administer and account WH lechniques/systems, crop types, and cropping system for initiative funds. management for water-use efficiency. • Improved information/local expertise on crop/shruh/lree suitability, agronomy, and production needs with respect to water management in dry areas. • Ex-ante appraisals of likely adoption and socioeconomic impact of new WH techniques A systems. Ex-ante/ox-post appraisal* of biophysical impacts of water husbandry innovations. • Greater public awareness erf WH teefaniques/systems among land users, development A extension agencies, WANA scientific community, and globally. * Strengthened inter-institutional and multidisciplinary national, regional, and international cooperation on WH research. Annex V - Page 23 Syetomwlde Inltlallvea/Programmee* Convening CGIAK ActivityCentre No. Governance Priority Setting Resource Allocation A Accountability Monitoring A Evaluation Projected Output* A Impact* 3. Gtobal/Crota-Ecoreglonal 3.1. Mountain Agriculture CIP (1CR AF) (ICIMOD) Annex V - 24 $y*ten)wide Ini! hi lives/Programme** Convening CGIAK ActivityCentre No. Governane* Priority Setting Resource Allocation & Accountability Monitoring A Evaluation Projected Output* A Impact* 3.1.1. L.A. Andean* CIP 1.1 Global coordination for the Global Priorities in the form of broad Resource allocation among the Centre boards of trustees of • Geoieferenced data bases on 1.2 (a) Mountain Initiative (GMI) would be research themes were set three ecoregional activities would the concerned centres would natural resources and their uso to Purpose(s): 1.2(b) provided by a steering committee collaboralively via a "project be a shared function between the provide the institutional permit agroecological 1.2 (c) composed of the heads of the three design" meeting convened by CIP steering committee and the auditing for the monitoring characterization of the mountain • Provide a forum for promoting and supporting research in natural 2.0 ecoregional initiatives convened and involving participating director-level staff of the of overall research activities regions involved.resource management and sustainable agricultural production in the mountain 3.0 respectively by CIP (L.A. Andean), initiative institutions. Themes were participating centres. and GMl’s global regions of the world. 4.0 ICRAF (E. African Highlands), and not formally ranked or coordination. GMI would • Diagnostic studies of land 5.1 1C1MOD (Asian Highlands). Its quantitatively evaluated, but The four research themes would also be audited and degradation, its processes snd • Develop independent strategic natural resource management research 5.2 functions would include planning criteria such as expected impact, be assigned the following reviewed through normal determinants, contributing a programmes in three mountain regions (L.A. Andean, E. African Highlands, 5.4 and monitoring of global feasibility, comparative advantage budgetary allocations across CGIAR processes and mountain perspective to knowledge Asian Highlands) based on common concerns and issues cutting across those coordination, harmonization of of the implementing institution, regions for 1997: land use, 28%; reviews. regions. research activities across the three of the environmental consequences value-added from a global biological diversity, 26%; of population growth for regions, timely information approach, specificity to mountain characterizing mowlain agricultural development.• Provide a framework for increased exchanges of experience, germplasm, exchange, fundraising, and a focal agriculture, and multi-disciplinarity ecosystems, 20%; policy research, and technologies among the three mountain regions. point for the mountain research figured prominently in the 13%; information • Improved knowledge of agenda within and outside of the exchangc/coordination, 13%. integrated nutrient management • Advocate increased support for research to reduce the degradation of the CGIAR System. When deemed Themes were grouped into four yielding cost-effective strategies tonatural resource base and promote sustainable agriculture in mountain necessary, project leaders of areas (see "Objectives") and maintain long-term soil regions. participating national institutions assigned budgetary allocations. productivity in the three mountain (NARS, universities, NGOs) would Specific projects were then derived regions. Training of human Objective^): be invited to share their views and from these broad subject matter resources in computer simulation contribute to the implementation of areas. for a systems approach to • Characterize agroecosystems to permit comparison of lard use patterns, GMI. integrated nutrient/soil extrapolation of technological options, and exchange of experiences with the Within each mountain area, the other tropical mountain ecoiegioos. convening centre would develop a mechanism for collaboration with • Methods for assessing tbs • Empirically document in benchmark sites the extent, processes, and national institutions; functions impacts of agricultural determinants of land degradation and develop a critical knowledge base for would include participatory intensification on biodiversity in integrated nutrient management to accommodate agricultural intemification programme planning to Identify mounts in regions and for without damaging the resource base. research strategies and measuring measuring levels of biodiversity programme success. over time.• Assess the impact of agricultural intensification on biodiversity, the potential for inter-mountain transfer of promising agricultural specks, and The Consortium for the • Identification of potentials for the risk to biodiversity of adverse consequences of such transfers. Sustainable Development of the transfer of crops between mountain Andean Ecoregion (CONDESAN), regions; improved biosafety/risk• Identify policies and public sector investments that stimulate productivity convened by CIP and comprising assessment of field testing ofand enhance resource conservation in mountain agriculture. some 35 institutions, would be the transgenic cultivar# in mountaincollaborative mechanism for the regions. Andean component of the initiative. • Improved understanding of the economic, policy, and investment constraints affecting development of the dairy sector and terraced agriculture in mountain regions. • Creation of an inter-regional electronic communications system to provide access to integrated scientific knowledge on environmental/agricultural issues in mountain regions. a Annex V - Page 25 Systemwide Inltkatlvee/Programmee* Convening: CGIAR Activity Outre No. Governance Priority Setting Resource Allocation St Accountability Monitoring St Evaluation Pitted Outputs St Impacts 3.1.2. E. African Highlands ICRAF 1.2(a) AHI is planned to operate at three AHI'a research themes ate decided Until ASARECA’s governing role The Directors’ Committee (c) levels: national activities, technical upon through a lengthy is fully operational, AHI resources approves workplans and Purpose(s): 2.0 coordination, and overall consultative process involving both are managed by ICRAF. CGIAR monitors annual progress 3.0 governance. senior scientists and research funds allocated to ICRAF as the toward achieving them.• Improve and enhance land productivity in the East African highlarvU by 5.1 managers within NARS and convening centre are expended for working with farmers to evolve policies and technologies that increase 5.2 Oversight of AHI would be lodged IARCs. Research methods and coordination costs; they are agricultural production while safeguarding the natural resource base. 5.4 with the governing body of approaches are determined by included in the Centre’s core ASARECA (Association for TAPs using participatory rural budget and accounted for in its Objective^): Strengthening Agricultural Research appraisals involving dialogue annual programme and budget in Eastern and Central Africa) and a among fanners, researchers and report. ICRAF also receives and • Develop a regional programme of research on the management of natural Directors' Committee comprised of other change agents. Emphasis is coordinates transfer of resources resources, particularly soil, to promote the sustainability of agricultural and the directors of participating on identifying and prioritizing to initiative partners for specific livestock production through improved technologies and unierstaixiing of the institutions and donor problems and documenting activities; these funds are not natural and socioeconomic environments. representatives. Most management farmers’ perceptions of incorporated into the Centre’s decisions would be entrusted to an environmental, institutional, policy budgetary presentation.* Strengthen the capacity of NARS to deal with problems related to natural AHI Task Force and Coordinating and other constraints and deriving Unit which would report regularly priorities for research and/or to the Director’s Committee. interventions accordingly.• Increase cooperation between NARS in the region and among NARS, IARCs and other regional research and extension programmes dealing with Technical coordination at the natural resources research. regional level would bo carried cut by a lead institution with guidance of a Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) drawn, where possible, from existing advisory commi Uces/commodity networks in the region. National teams based at selected zonal stations and working on priority themes within national programmes would operate in collaboration with fanner groups, development agencies, NGOs, under the guidance of team leaders and technical advisory panels identified by national authorities. Annex V - 26 Systemwide Initiative*/Programmes* Convening CG1AK Activity Cmtre No. Governance Priority Setting Resource Ai location St Accountability Monitoring St Evaluation Projected Output* St Impact* 3.1.3. Asian Highlands ICIMOD The convening centre has organized a regional conference on Proposal pending. sustainable development of the mountain areas of Asia to set priorities for research and development and to establish a regional coordination structure. Annex V - Page 27 Systemwide I n I dadves/Program raw* Convening CGIAK ActivityCantre No. Governane* Priority Setting Resource Allocation St Accountability Monitoring St Evaluation Projected Output* St Impact* 3.2. Slash and Bum 1CRAF 1.2 (a) A Global Steering Group cotnprisod See Governance and Resource GSG members arrive at a Information not available. • Identification of gaps in (CIFOR) (c) of representatives of the ASB Allocation columns. consensus of research priorities biophysical and/or sociooconomio- Purpoee(s): 2.0 consortium, chaired by the director- and funding needs. The convening policy knowledge and 3.0 general of ICRAF, and serviced by centre coordinates proposal/budgct corresponding future research • Reduce global warming, conserve biodiversity, and alleviate poverty by 4.0 s global coordinator, sets general preparation and funding by the agendas;promoting development of ecologically sound, economically viable, and 5.1 policy guidelines. Regional Steering core donor (Global Environmental culturally acceptable alternatives to slaah-and-bum agriculture. 5.2 Groups for Latin America, Asia and Facility). Identification of co­ • Standardized Weal Africa led by IARCs ensure financing sources is a procedures/metbods for Objective(s): regional coordination, setting of responsibility shared by monitoring/asscssing key priorities and sharing of institutional participating institutions. Block environmental and socioeconomic • Identify, evaluate and, where necessary, modify and develop land-use responsibilities among the region’s grants are received by ICRAF indicators; s geo-referenced systems and technologies that lead to sustainable alternatives to slash-and- benchmark sites. National Steering which is accountable to GEF for bum agriculture and the reclamation database with rcgicnal/global of degraded lands. Groups, chaired by the NARS programmatic and financial applications;director-general for each study • Identify, evaluate, and design policies and methods of reporting. The Centre coordinates implementation to country, ensure government support resource allocation and reporting • Methods for policy research on protect the environment by reducing the area deforested by the practice of and the participation of other requirements for participating key soci ÙC and nalifutinnal slasb-and-bum and promote the establishment of sustainable syslezr». institutions. institutions, local NGOs, and issues; • Enhance human resource capacity for informed policy-making and the universities. Local Steering Groups, • Dissemination to policymakers, dissemination and application of research results. chaired by the NARS-ASB farmers and scientists of representative, comprise farmer- Area Focus: producer organizations, NGOs, information an policies, investments, and technologies to community leaders, stale reduce deforestation caused by • Latin America governments and others. LSGs slaah-and-bum agriculture and • Asia implement the identified and reverse concomitant land • West Africa prioritized project goals at the local degradation;level and are responsible for maintaining quality research and • Strengthened human resourcesexecution of training and and information systems.dissemination activities. Thematic working groups further coordinate specific activities of participating institutions. Annex V - 28 Syttemwld® 1 Dittati ve* /Program me** Convening CGIAK Activity Outre : No, Governance Priority Sotting Reeource Allocation & Accountability Monitoring & Evaluation Projected Output* A Impact* 3.3. Coastal Environments 1CLARM (Proposal Pending) Annex V - Page 29 Systemwide Inltfa»tlve*/Progn»imw«* Convening CGIAK Activity C«tre No, Governane* Priority S«Ulng K«source Allocation St Accountability Monitoring St Evaluation Projected Output* St Impact* 4. Other* 4.1. Integrated Poet Management ITT A 1.1 The Inter-Centre Working Group- SIPMI would solicit and prioritize The ICWG-DPM would consider No information is provided Proposed prqjects/imtiative* are 1.2(a) Integrated Poet Management centre*’ proposal* for inter-centre projects formulated by two or in the proposal. explicated in terms of rationale, Purposc(s): 1.2(b) (ICWG-IPM) would constitute the IPM projects/initiatives based on more centre* on the basis of objectives, activities, and expected 1.2 (c) Steering Committee of the the following criteria: prioritizing criteria and endorse outputs. Outputs are generally • Articulate a coherent CGIAR policy on integrated pe*t management 2.0 Systemwide Programme cn them to donors. characterized in terms of:(IPM) and serve as a focal point for IPM matters within and outside of tbs 3.0 Integrated Peet Management • Economic/scicntific contribution CGIAR System. 5.1 (SPIPM). The SC would further to development of improved plant Allocations for proposed initiatives • IPM technologies, strategies, 5.2 SP1PM objective* which are and animal health systems in and projects are ranked in the systems, and practices developed• Provide a forum for discussion of the System’s IPM policy, strategy, and 5.4 identical to those of the Systemwide LDCs SIPMI three-year budget estimate activities, particularly as they relate to project definition. Integrated Peet Management resourced accordingly. Initiative • IPM-improvcd cultivar* (SIPMI). • Demand-driven and concerned developed• Coordinate and improve the comrranical ion/exchange of information on primarily with constraints limiting No additional information on IPM within/outsidc of the CGIAR System. ICWG-IPM membership would IPM implementation identified resource allocation/accountability • h in productivity of consist of one representative of each through farmer-participatory is provided in the proposal. Objcctive(s): CGIAR centre nominated by specific cropsits methods. Director-General. The Committee • reductions in pesticide use• Strengthen inter-centre IPM communication/collaboration and with would elect a Chairperson and • Improves understanding of external partners. Secretary from among its biodiversity and ecological * methods for measuring adoption membership; the Secretary would mechanisms as a basis for the and impact of IPM• Identify BPM joint project opportunità* and support implementation of initially also act as Coordinator of devekpment of more effective IPM research and training. SIPMI and its activities. IPM programme*. • training of researchers, extension agents, fermerà in IPM• Promote public of CGIAR centres’ IPM activities. Since no CGIAR centre has a • Multidisciplinary, undertaken on mandate corresponding to the focus an inter-centre collaborative basis, • information, databases, and • Enhance the impact of centre*' IPM activities at the farm level by of SIPMI, its overall leadership and focused on problems of global decision support systems producedencouraging farmer participation and effective collaboration with remains to be confirmed. A rotating or regional significance. organizations primarily concerned with IPM implementation (NARS, IGOs, Chairperson with a permanent • increased IPM-based collabora­NGOs). secretariat is envisaged. tion with and capacity of NARS • Focus IPM on sustainability objective* (including preservation of For an initial period the secretariat biodiversity and environmental health) and on human well-being (health and for SIPMI would be provided by the e*juity). convening centre, ETTA. Annex V - 30 System wide inlth*tlvr*/Prwgnunm«* Convening CG1AK Activity Centre No. Governance Priority Setting Reeource Allocai Urn it Accountability Monitoring it Evaluation Prelected Output# St Impact# 4.2. Soil, Water, Nutrient Management CIAT 1.2(a) The initiative would be comprised of Fcur priority themes were Proposed resource allocations Information on monitoring Outputs:*IBSRAM 1.2(b) four thematic consortia and identified through an recommended by the workshop Purpose(s): and evaluation is not1.2 (c) implemented through an IBSRAM/CLAT/DSE-spoosored were approximately equal for the provided in the proposal. * Economically viable, socially 2.0 ecoregional/mnlli-disciplinary workshop involving 20 national four initiative themes.* Promote application by land users of technologies and sustainable acceptable and environmentally 4.0 approach involving collaboration programmes, 7 CGIAR centres, Information an accountability for management systems to increase long-term productivity, reduce poverty, and scamd technologies for SWNM.5.1 conserve and enhance the quality of land between IARCs and partners and 29 other agricultural research resources is not provided in the and water resources both on-site 5.2 within/outside of the CGIAR and development agencies: proposal.and off-site. • Improved methodologies and 5.4 including NARS, AROs, and combating nutrient depiction, diagnostic tools for SWNM NGOs. Consortia would be jointly managing acid soils, managing soil Objective^): research.convened by IARCs other erosion, and optimizing soil water institutions. use. Criteria for priority setting • Develop effective, efficient and environmentally sound technologies • Impact assessment systems for land management and conservation and are not specified in the proposalmake them available to methodologies including indicators Programme coordination would befarmers and other users. for sustainable and unsustainable provided by the convening centre (See also Governance.) assisted by a Global land use systems to monitor Steering * Develop new mechanisms which encourage the adoption of sustainable environmental, social and Committee composed of consortia soil, water, and nutrient management (SWNM) technologies. economic impacts.and ecoregional program leaders, donor representatives, and special * Promote stronger partnership and capacity of all stakeholders in • Easily accessible decision advisors from NARS and AROs; it ecoregional programmes (NARS, NGOs, IARCs, and AROs) in order to support systems (models, expert would be implemented by a Globalplan and implement research and dissemination programs for sustainable land systems, GIS, global data bases) Coordinator located at the convening for generating, testing, and centre. The coordination function extrapolating SWNM option. would provide the following• Design workable policy options and advice, including issues concerning services with a minimal structure: equity (gender, resource access, tenure) to enhance adoption of the • Critical mass of trained human continuity of activities across technologies and systems generated by the initiative. resources capable erf' implementing different consortia and ocorcgioos SWNM programmes and policies.through cross-theme Working Groups, common activities on • Framework for full cooperation training and information, and and partnership between provision of a focal point on SWNM stakeholder groins in the initiative issues within and outside of the coalition. CGIAR. • Policy options that promote Integration of SWNM activities with sustainable SWNM practices.ecoregional programmes is envisaged, including joint definition of priorities • Mechanisms for training and through collaborative surveys, shared data-bases and information exchange. benchmark sites, joint working Benefits: groups, and participation at ecoregional or SWNM meetings. • Provide linkage for focused Decisions on SWNM research research on SWNM at benchmark programmes would as far as sites within ecoregional possible be reached through programmes and across ccorcgions.consensus between ecoregional groups and SWNM consortia via • Address priority SWNM joint ecoregional-SWNM working problems in selected ecoregiom, groups. These groups would the results of which would have a determine joint workplans based on priorities assessed significant potential for by the extrapolation and adoption in ecoregional programme and the similar ccorcgions. consortia, prepare joint proposals for multi- and bilateral funding, and • Increase the efficiency of ths ensure that implementation of the research system through effective activities is collaborative and based collaboration betwocn NARS, on the comparative advantage of the different institutions. b Annex V - Page 31 * Full Titles: 1.1. Systemwide Genetic Resources Inilia live/Programme 1.2. Systemwide Livestock Initiative: Feed Resources - Production ani Utilization 1.3 Proposal pending. 1.4. Property Rights and Collective Action 13. Agricultural Research Indicators Initiative 2.1.1. Sustainable Natural Resource Management Options to Arrest Land Degradations in the Desert Margins of Sub-Saharan Africa 2.1.2.a/b. Ecoregional Programme for the Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics of Sub-Saharan Africa: Moist Savanna/Humid Forest 2.1.2.c Inland Valley Consortium An Ecoregional Programme for the Warm Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics of Sub-Saharan Africa 2.2.1. Sustainability of Rice-Wheat Based Cropping Systems in the IndoGangclic Plain 2.2.2. An Ecoregional Approach to Research and Development in the Humid/Sub-humid Tropics arai Sub-Tropics of Asia 23.1. An Ecoregional Approach to Enhancing Agricultural Research in Tropical America 2.4.1. On Farm Water Husbandry in West Asia and North Africa 3.1.1. Global Ecoregional Initiative an Sustainable Mountain Agricultural Dcvclopcmot: L.S. Andes 3.1.2 African Highlands Initiative 3.1.3. Proposal pending. 3.2. Alternatives to Slash and Bum Initiative 33 Proposal pending. 4.1 Systemwide Integrated Pest Management Initiative/Systcmwidc Programme on Integrated Pest Management 4.2 Soil, Water and Nutrient Management Initiative Notes: The purposes and objectives specified apply to the three regional components of this global initiative but have only been displayed under the Andean initiative for reason of space. The outputs listed are generic to the initiative aa a whole. Each of the initiative's four research themes would generate outputs discrete to those themes; they are too nurarout to display in the table. Annex V - Page * Full Titles: 1.1. Systemwide Genetic Resources Initiative/Programn» 1.2. Systemwide Livestock Initiative: Feed Resources - Production and Utilization 1.3 Proposal pending. 1.4. Property Rights and Collective Action 1.5. Agricultural Research Indicators Initiative 2.1.1. Sustainable Natural Resource Management Options to Arrest Land Degradation in the Desert Margim of Sub-Saharan Africa 2.1.2.a/b. Ecoregional Programme for the Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics of Sub-Saharan Africa: Moist Savanna/Humid Forest 2.1.2.C Inland Valley Consortium: An Ecoregional Programme for the Warm Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics of Sub-Saharan Africa 2.2.1. Sustainability of Rice-Wheat Based Cropping Systems in the Indo-Gangelic Plain 2.2.2. An Ecoregional Approach to Research and Development in the Humid/Sub-humid Tropics and Sub-Tropics of Asia 2.3.1. An Ecoregional Approach to Enhancing Agricultural Research in Tropical America 2.4.1. On Farm Water Husbandry in West Asia and North Africa 3.1.1. Global Ecoregional Initiative on Sustainable Mountain Agricultural Development: L.S. Andes 3.1.2 African Highlands Initiative 3.13. Proposal pending. 3.2. Alternatives to Slash and Bum Initiative 33 Proposal pending. 4.1 Systemwide Integrated Pest Management Initialivc/Systcmwidc Programme on Integrated Pest Managems* 4.2 Soil, Water and Nutrient Management Initiative Notes: i The purposes and objectives specified apply to the three regional components of this global initiative but have only been displayed mlcr the Andean initiative for reasom of space. 2 The oUpUi listed arc generic to the initiative as a whole. Each of the initiative's four research themes would generate outputs discrete to those themes; they are too ramerei» to display in the table.