Kenya County Climate Risk Profile Series Kenya County Climate Risk Profile: Samburu County Highlights Livestock farming constitutes the bulk of the economy of Samburu County (Figure 1), with over 60% of the population practicing pastoralism and 30% practicing agro-pastoralism. The main climate risks in the lowlands of Samburu are heat stress and drought, which both affect crop and livestock productivity. At higher altitudes, flood risk is projected to be a key hazard in the future. Despite on- and off-farm efforts to increase resilience in the face of climate change, farmers’ adaptive capacity is low and agricultural yields have decreased in recent years. To reduce food insecurity and poverty increased employment opportunities in agriculture and sustainable alternative livelihoods must be developed. The county has recently experienced climate changes with hazards such drought, heat stress, floods, and erosion. Overall climate change effects in Samburu include unreliable, erratic, and inadequate rainfall; recurring and prolonged droughts; high and increasing temperatures; and declining water levels. The successful implementation of climate adaptation strategies requires strengthening the institutional and financial capacities of stakeholders, delivering basic resources, and introducing agricultural incentives. Figure 1: Map of Samburu County Republic of Kenya CONTENTS Highlights ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Table of Contents ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 List of Figures -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 List of Tables ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 List of Abbreviations ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 Foreword -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1. Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 2. County Context --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 2.1. Economic Relevance of Farming --------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 2.2. People and Livelihoods -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 2.3. Agricultural Activities --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 2.4. Agricultural Value Chain Commodities ------------------------------------------------------------ 8 2.4.1. Cattle (Beef) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.4.2. Local Chicken ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10 2.4.3. Small Ruminants (Sheep and Goats) ---------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.4.4. Apiculture (Beekeeping) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 11 2.5. Agricultural Sector Challenges ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 3. Climate Change and Agriculture: Risks and Vulnerabilities ------------------------------------- 12 3.1. Climate Change and Variability: Historic and Future Trends ------------------------------------ 13 3.2. The Climate from Farmers´ Perspectives ----------------------------------------------------------- 18 3.3. Climate Vulnerabilities across Agricultural VCCs ------------------------------------------------- 18 3.3.1. Cattle (Beef)--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 3.3.2. Local Chicken ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 19 3.3.3. Small Ruminants (Goats and Sheep) ---------------------------------------------------------- 19 3.3.4. Apiculture (Beekeeping) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 19 4. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability ------------------------------------------------------ 20 4.1. Factors Determining Future Vulnerability and Impacts of climate change -------------------- 20 4.2 Climate Change Adaptation Options ----------------------------------------------------------------- 20 4.2.1 On-going Adaptation options ------------------------------------------------------------------ 20 4.2.2 Potential Adaptation options ------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 5. Policies and strategies on Climate Change ----------------------------------------------------------- 26 6. Institutional Capacity on Climate Change ------------------------------------------------------------ 27 7. Synthesis and Outlook ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 28 8. Works Cited ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 9. Acknowledgements --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 10. Annexes ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 10.1 Glossary ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 2 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series List of Figures Figure 1: Map of Samburu County -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 Figure 2: Climate Risk Profile (CRP) development process -----------------------------------------------------------------------6 Figure 3: Map of Agro ecological zones in Samburu County --------------------------------------------------------------------7 Figure 4: Agriculture and livelihoods in Samburu County ------------------------------------------------------------------------9 Figure 5: Characterization of the selected value chains in Samburu County -------------------------------------------------11 Figure 6: Elevation (left), historical (1985-2015) annual mean precipitation in mm (center), and historical (1985-2015) annual mean temperature in °C (right) for Samburu County for the long rainy season -------14 Figure 7: Historical monthly mean temperature and precipitation for Samburu County. The long rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from January to June, while the second, short rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from July to December. Bars represent total monthly precipitation and lines represent maximum (red) and minimum (blue) monthly mean temperatures (average 1985-2015) -------------------14 Figure 8: Annual total rainfall trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060 --------------------------------------------------------------------------15 Figure 9: Annual mean temperature trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) -------------------------------------------------------------------------15 Figure 10: Historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) for the number of CDD for the long rainy season --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------16 Figure 11: Historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) for maximum 5 days running average precipitation for the short rainy season -----------------------------------------------------------17 Figure 12: Climate variabilities and adaptation options across selected value chains in Samburu County ------------25 List of Tables Table 1: National policies targeting climate change adaptation and mitigation in Samburu County --------------------26 Table 2: Institutions that are currently supporting and implementing agricultural interventions in Samburu County -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------27 Samburu County 3 List of Abbreviations ACTED Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development AI Artificial Insemination CDD Consecutive dry days CIAT International Centre for Tropical Agriculture CIDP County Integrated Development Plan GoK Government of Kenya ICT Information and Communications Technology IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KALRO Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization KIPPRA The Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis MOALFC Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries, and Cooperatives NARIGP National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy NDMA The National Drought Management Authority P5D Maximum 5-day Running Average Precipitation RPLRP Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Programme VC(C) Value Chain (Commodity) Samburu 4 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Foreword The mandate of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Co-operatives is to create an enabling environment for sustainable development of agriculture and co-operatives for economic development. This objective underpins our desire and commitment to transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens in a clean and secure environment as envisaged in our development blueprints, the Kenya Vision 2030, the Big Four Agenda and the Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy (ASTSG 2019 – 2029). The sector remains high on the national development agenda in terms of food and nutrition security, income generation, employment creation, saving and investment mobilization and export earnings. To realize the country’s aspirations of food and nutrition security, the Government through this Ministry is implementing the National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP) with the support of the World Bank. The development objective of the project is to increase the agricultural productivity and profitability of targeted rural communities in 21 counties and in the event of an eligible crisis or emergency, provide an immediate and effective response. The agriculture sector is however, highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events. Responses that would enable the country to cope with these risks are outlined in the Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Strategy and in the commitments of the Kenya Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In 2010, the Government developed the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) which recognized the impacts of climate change on the country’s development. This was followed by the development of the National Climate Change Action Plan in 2012. The focus of these initiatives include the development of county-level climate risk profiles to mainstream climate change perspectives in programs and development plans at county level. The Ministry has developed county climate risk profiles in 31 counties and NARIGP is supporting the development of profiles for an additional 14 counties. The purpose of the profiles is to inform county governments and stakeholders on the climate change risks and provide opportunities for integration into respective county development plans and processes. This climate risk profiles study will be used as a basis to climate proof projects or any other developments in fourteen counties (Samburu, Turkana, Kitui, Narok, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Muranga, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Vihiga, Kisii, Nyamira and Migori). The study provides information on current and possible future climate scenarios, climate-related vulnerabilities and risks for key major agricultural value chains, policy landscape and the institutional capacity to deliver adaptation programs. Each profile presents adaptation and risk reduction options that can transform and reorient agricultural systems in the counties to increase productivity, enhance smallholder farmers’ resilience and mitigate against climate change. Finally, I call upon all stakeholders for their cooperation and support for adoption of CSA production practices that maximize the triple wins: increases productivity, enhanced resilience and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Through the adoption of new technologies and improved practices, we will realize the desired goal of Kenya being a food and nutrition secure country, fostering socio-economic development and improved livelihoods of Kenyans. Prof. Hamadi I. Boga, PhD, CBS Principal Secretary State Department for Crops Development and Agricultural Research Samburu County 5 1. Introduction support from the World Bank. The project development objective is to increase agricultural productivity and Climate change is becoming one of the most profitability of targeted rural communities in selected serious challenges to Kenya. The country is counties. To address the climate change risks and susceptible to climate-related events, and projections vulnerabilities that negatively impact agricultural indicate that climate impacts will continue to production, the Alliance of Bioversity International and affect the country in the future. In many areas, the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) extreme and variable weather is now the norm. Rainfall is completed a climate risk assessment in 14 counties irregular and unpredictable; some regions experience supported by NARIGP. The aims of the assessment frequent droughts during the long rainy season or are to provide information on current climate and severe floods during the short rains. Arid and semi- possible future climate scenarios; to identify climate- arid areas are particularly vulnerable to these extreme related vulnerabilities and risks for major agricultural changes, putting the lives and socio-economic value chains and specific groups of people involved activities of millions of households at risk. in agriculture; to identify adaptation options that address climate risks/vulnerabilities; and to assess the institutional capacity to deliver adaptation programs. The Kenya Vision 2030 is a national blue print that seeks to transform Kenya into a newly middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens This climate risk profile seeks to inform county by 2030 in a clean and secure environment. Agriculture governments and stakeholders about climate change sector has been identified as one of the key sectors risks and opportunities for agriculture so they can to contribute to the projected annual national integrate these perspectives into county development. economic growth. However, it has been constrained This report will help county governments and with inadequate access to quality inputs, marketing stakeholders integrate climate change risks and inefficiencies, non-conducive investment environment, opportunities for local agriculture into county declining soil fertility, low mechanization, land development plans. fragmentation and more significantly climate change. The Alliance undertook the assessment in a set of In 2010, Kenya developed a National Climate Change interrelated stages (Figure 1). It first initiated a desk Response Strategy (NCCRS), which recognized review of the conceptual and analytical contexts of the importance of climate change impacts on climate change risks at the national and county levels. the country’s development. This was followed in It made efforts to involve a wide range of institutions 2012 by the National Climate Change Action Plan that have worked on climate change at the national (NCCAP), which provided a means for implementing and regional levels. The team used globally available the NCCRS and highlighted agricultural adaptation data sources like the Kenya Open Data Portal and priorities. These initiatives are focused on the national county development plans, and collected information level, climate change considerations still need to be from relevant government departments, such as the mainstreamed in county-level policies, programs, Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing, and development plans. Locally relevant, integrated the Kenya Meteorological Department, and the adaptation responses with active involvement of local Drought Monitoring Centre. The team also collected stakeholders are necessary to achieve this goal. data through focus group discussions, key informant interviews with carefully selected experts, climate modeling, and three days of sub-national stakeholder Through the Ministry of Agriculture, the Government of workshops. The final reports were then presented and Kenya (GOK) is implementing the National Agricultural validated by national- and county-level stakeholders. and Rural Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP) with Development of Data Collection 3 Days Stakeholders Report and Validation Methods Workshop in Each County ■ Literature Review ■ Validation of Priority Vcs and ■ ■ Report DratingMethods and Context Collected Statistics Socioeconomic Context Coordination ■ ■ Presentation of Historic Climate ■ Review (Internal and External) Focus Group Discussions and and Future Projected Changes ■ Validation of the Methods Key Informant Interviews ■ Validation Workshop With National and County by National and County ■ Identification of Key Risks ■ Climate Change and Impact Underlying Vulnerability Factors, Stakeholders Stakeholders and New Potential Adaptation Modelling Options ■ Assesment of Institutions and County Level Organizations Capacity to Deliver Adaptation Programs Figure 2: Climate Risk Profile (CRP) development process 6 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series This document presents the Climate Risk Profile for Samburu County. It is organized into six main sections, each reflecting an essential analytical step towards understanding current and potential adaptation options in key local agricultural value chain commodities. The document first offers an overview of the agricultural commodities key to food security and livelihoods in the county, and then lists major challenges to agricultural sector development in Samburu. In the second section, it identifies the main climate hazards, based on an analysis of historical climate data and climate projections. These include scientific assessments of climate indicators for dry spells, extreme rainfall, moisture stress, and heat stress, among others. Third, the report continues with an analysis of vulnerabilities and risks posed by these climactic hazards on the identified value chains. Based on these vulnerabilities, the fourth section discusses current and potential on-farm adaptation options and off-farm services. In the fifth section, the report also provides snapshots of the enabling policy, institutional, and governance contexts for the adoption of resilience-building strategies. Finally, the sixth section presents pathways for strengthening institutional capacity to address climate risks. 2. County Context Samburu County is located within the northern parts of Great Rift Valley in Kenya. It lies within Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands, covering an area of 21,022 km2 and bordering Turkana to the northwest, Baringo to Figure 3: Map of Agro ecological zones in Samburu County the southwest, Marsabit to the northeast, Isiolo to the east, and Laikipia to the south. Administratively, season occurs during the months of July and August, Samburu is divided into three sub-counties, 15 wards, sometimes extending into September. At Wamba and 108 villages. The largest sub-county is Samburu and South Horr, the short rainy season starts later East (10,049.7 km²) and smallest being Samburu in October and November and sometimes extends West 3937.3 km²). The County has seven divisions, into December. The southwest plains and the Lorroki the largest being Waso (5,378.9 km²) and the smallest Plateau receive 500-700 mm of rainfall annually. is Kirisia (1,237.7 km²). A total of 139,892 ha, or (8%), The Nyiro and Ndoto Mountains and the Matthews of the land is arable; most of this land is concentrated Range receive the greatest amount of rainfall: 750- in Samburu’s central highland. Samburu County 1250 mm annually. The central basin and the plains encompasses five agro ecological zones. east of the Matthews Range are the driest parts; there annual rainfall is 250-500mm. The county has (Figure 3): Upper Highland (UH), Lower Highland (LH), annual mean temperature of 29°C with a maximum Upper Midlands (UM), Lower Midland (LM), and Inner of 33°C and minimum of 24°C. The central plains Lowland (IL). More than 75% of the land in Samburu and the region east of the Matthews Range have the County is classified as ‘low-potential’ rangeland that highest temperatures, while the highland belts in the receives only 250-600 mm of rain annually. About North Eastern side of the Lorroki Plateau are cooler 140,900 ha, or 7%, of the land is medium-to-high- (Samburu County Government, 2018). potential land suitable for agricultural production, as it receives 600-900 mm of rain per year (Samburu County Government, 2018). 2.1. Economic Relevance of Farming The county experiences tropical climatic conditions. Agriculture forms the backbone of Samburu County’s The driest months are January and February. The economy, contributing around 60% across three long rainy season falls in the months of March, April sub-sectors, namely, crop farming, livestock rearing, and May. The elevation and orientation of the major and fisheries. Around 85% of the population lives in topographic features, such as the Matthew Range and rural areas. The agricultural sector is important for Ndoto Hills, influence rainfall distribution. Except in the poverty reduction and the creation of employment South Horr and Wamba areas, a second, short rainy Samburu County 7 opportunities, either directly or through value-addition 2.3. Agricultural Activities activities, such as milk processing. Overall, the contribution of the agricultural sector to household income in Samburu County is 66% from livestock related The primary land use practice in Samburu County is activities, 2.7% from crop farming, and 31% from off- pastoralism, with secondary amount of crop, poultry, farm activities. The livestock sub-sector is a significant aquaculture and the upcoming beekeeping animal contributor to the economy of Samburu County; its production systems. Around 92% of the county is main products are milk and meat. Among pastoralists, rangeland suitable for livestock production. Within the livestock production contributes 85% of cash income; county’s pastoralism, grazing is normally communal. agro pastoralists derive 60% of their cash income from The main breeds of cattle kept are local, including Zebu, livestock and 20% from crop production. Production Boran, and their crossbreeds; goat breeds include the systems in Samburu are primarily traditional, focused Small East African and Galla. The Dorper and the Red on indigenous livestock breeds and local crop varieties Maasai are common sheep breeds. Beekeeping is an and with very few external inputs (Samburu County emerging production system being practiced as an Government, 2018). alternative livelihood. Crop farming is undertaken in favorable areas like Poro in Kirisia Division, Baragoi, The county had an average population of 169,000 South Horr and Tuum in Nyiro division (Samburu heads of cattle; their estimated annual meat production County Government, 2018). is valued at Kenya Shillings (KSh) 168 million1 and milk at KSh 235 million. The production of goats and sheep Land ownership in the county falls into four categories: happens at a larger scale, with an average population trust, communal, government, and private. Presently, of 850,000 goats and 430,000 sheep. The annual the county has 43 group ranches with a registered meat production for goats is valued at KSh 105 million membership of approximately 26,000. These ranches and that of sheep at KSh 58.46 million. Local chicken comprise 830,000 ha, which is approximately 40% populations are estimated at 300,000 with a value of of the county. The promotion of small-scale farming KSh14 million for meat and KSh88 million for eggs. is inhibited by a lack of title deeds since farmers are There are, in addition, 32,911 beehives with honey unable to access credit facilities due to their lack of production of KSh 67 million and wax production of collateral. The average smallholder plot size is less than KSh11 million (MoALFC, 2019). 0.4 ha; these plots are mostly found at Poro where crop farming and livestock activities are practiced. Large- scale farms are on average 20ha and are used mostly 2.2. People and Livelihoods for livestock rearing and wheat farming (Samburu County Government, 2018). Samburu County has a population of approximately 310,000, of which 50.5% are male and 49% female 2.4. Agricultural Value Chain (Figure 4). The youth (aged 15 to 30 years) represent Commodities about 80% of the total population. The average household size in the county is 4.7, and the population growth rate is 4.45%, higher than the national growth Among the diverse range of value chain development rate of 2.3%. The County’s average population in Samburu County, several are prioritized by the density is 15 persons per km2. Around 85%, or County Integrated Development Plan (CIDP), 263,000 persons, live in rural areas while the urban development programs NARIGP and the Agricultural population stands at 15%, or 47,000 (KNBS, 2019). Sector Development Support Programme (ASDSP), The Samburu tribe represents 80% of the county’s and government institutions such as the Kenya population while the Turkana, Somali, Rendille, Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization Kikuyu and Meru comprise the remaining 20%. The (KALRO). For the development of this profile, a list topography, soil type, rock types, and vegetation of the major agriculture value chain commodities cover influence population distribution and settlement (VCCs) in the county was compiled using the following patterns in the county (Samburu County Government, prioritization indicators: productivity characteristics, 2018). The main livelihood activities in the county are including harvested area, production, and production crop farming, livestock rearing, fishing, harvesting variations over the past five years; economic value; non-wood products and, to some extent, mining. The and nutrition characteristics, including dietary energy majority of households that are rural depend on the consumption (Kcal/capita/day), protein content, iron livestock sub-sector as their main source of household content, zinc content, and vitamin A content. This list income. Nationally, the country is ranked 42nd in was presented to stakeholders for in-depth analysis terms of contribution to poverty, with 71.4% of the and selection during a 3-day-long workshop. The list population living below the poverty line (defined as was further honed using a set of criteria agreed upon living on USD 1.90/day). by the stakeholders, including resilience to current and future climate change impacts (low to high), the percentage of population involved in the value chain 1Exchange rate: 1 KES = 0.00912897 USD (on 26 Nov 2020) 8 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Livelihoods and agriculture in Samburu Farming County’s farming area Demographics 139892 ha 8% 0.65% Of Kenya’s population 310,327 5% of the population employed ininhabitants agriculture production 39.5% of farmers have title deeds 85% 49% 51% Farming activities Live in rural areas Food crops Access to basic needs 18.7% 73% of the population livesin absolute poverty Cash crops Potable water 2% SAMBURU 0.05% Electricity for cooking 0.2% Forests Electricity for lighting 6.2% 0.014% Education (youth literacy rate) 34% Livestock Food security 43 Group ranches 79% of the population 0 Company ranchessuffers from food poverty 59.2% of thousehold income Farming inputss pent on food 18.4% People Fertilizer types (% of households)undernourished Organic manure 34.0% 5.7%Children stunted NPH 1% Planting fertilizer18.3% Children wasted 5.7% Top dress fertilizer Infographic based on data from the County Integrated Development Plan (GoK, 2013-2017), the Agricultural Sector Development Support Program (GoK, 2017), and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS, 2019) Figure 4: Agriculture and livelihoods in Samburu County Samburu County 9 Of county’s agricultural land (%), and the involvement of economically and socially The local chicken value chain engages 41-60% of the vulnerable groups (poor, women, and youth) in the county’s population, with a center in central Samburu. VCC (low to high). Each value chain was assessed Suppliers and agro-vets are the main actors at the input against all criteria, and the value chains with the highest supply stage. They supply feeds, veterinary medicine, percentage of the population involved—with special chicken equipment (feeders, drinkers), breeding attention on women and the youth—were selected. stock, and information. Their activities are important The four VCCs chosen for this report are cattle (beef), for overall production, the provision of technical local chicken, small ruminants (sheep and goats), and advice, and the prevention of disease. At the on-farm apiculture (Figure 4). production stage, farmers are the main actors, and they engage in feeding, cleaning, bulking, vaccination, 2.4.1. Cattle (Beef) feeds supply, and slaughtering activities. These are important for preventing diseases, promoting good The livestock subsector contributes significantly to the hygiene, ensuring optimum chicken production, and economy of Samburu County since cattle meat is one providing manure as a by-product. of its main livestock products. Beef cattle contribute to household income and nutrition, as well as providing There are not large-scale poultry processors in the major opportunities for self-employment along the county, so small-scale actors engage in slaughtering, VC. Production has, however, remained low due to linking farmers to intermediaries, and transporting live inadequate and low-quality feeds, low-quality breeds, birds and eggs. Transporters play an important role in poor husbandry practices, and high incidence of moving poultry from various production points to the pests and diseases. More than 80% of the population final consumers. Producers, brokers, and small-scale in Samburu is engaged in the beef value chain. The retailers transport birds from farms or intermediate participation of women and youth is low to medium markets to end markets. At the marketing stage, scale, compared to the highly involved male population. the main actors are wholesalers and retailers. Their Service providers and merchants supply inputs. activities include linking farmers to buyers, pricing, The key activities in this stage are agrovet services, and selling. The activity is important in strengthening veterinary services, feed acquisition, and improving market information and selling. The commercial livestock breeds through artificial insemination (AI). At market in Samburu is characterized by a growing the on-farm production stage, farmers use acaricides urban population and expanding food retail sector for tick control, conduct vaccinations, feed their stock, that includes fast-food outlets, supermarkets, and and deworm the cattle. The actors at the post-harvest restaurants. A ready market exists for free-range eggs stage are farmers and the processors. Key activities and chicken meat within the county. are transporting live animals to the slaughterhouses, slaughtering, and meat processing. The marketing 2.4.3. Small Ruminants (Sheep and Goats) stage involves farmers, intermediaries, retailers, and wholesalers; its key activities are linking farmers to Small livestock production provides income cattle buyers, selling, pricing, and promotion. opportunities and promotes self-sufficiency, particularly for women and youth. Small ruminants are versatile 2.4.2. Local Chicken and adaptable to extreme weather, have undemanding feeding habits, accept low-value feed, and possess Indigenous chickens are common in the rural areas high production value considering their size. Small of the county where they play a key role in enhancing ruminants are capable of enduring prolonged water household food security. They are primarily kept in deprivation and can withstand heat stress better than traditional, free-range systems. Keeping local poultry cattle. Small ruminants play an integral part in the is a low-cost activity that requires basic skills and small welfare of many families and communities. In mixed resources but in exchange provides eggs and meat. systems, goats and sheep are multipurpose animals, Local chicken can be profitable if managed well. producing offspring, milk, meat, hide and fleece. The Chicken production thus presents an alternative source goat and sheep meat sector significantly contributes to of high-quality nutrition and of income, especially for the economy of Samburu County. women and youth. Eggs and meat contribute directly to household protein needs, alleviating malnutrition Over 80% of the county’s population is engaged and offering food security. Women and youth own and in the small ruminant value chain. At the input manage most local poultry; they combine a free-range supply stage, actors include service providers and system with protection of chicks from predators and suppliers. The key activities in this stage are agro- bad weather. Feeding indigenous chicken is necessary veterinary services for the provision of feeds, mineral to increase their production of meat and eggs. supplements, and drugs; the provision of veterinary Inadequate feed and water intake reduces resistance services; feed acquisition; and crossbreeding services. to disease and parasites and leads to chicken mortality. At the on-farm production stage, farmers and service The cheapest way to supplement poultry diets is to use providers are the main actors; they feed and fatten, local resources like leftover maize grains, wheat, grass, spray, vaccinate, and de-worm. At the post-harvest insects, and vegetables. stage, farmers and the processors engage in bulking and fattening of animals, transporting live animals to 10 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Agricultural value chains in Samburu Provision of On-Farm Harvesting Inputs Production Storage and Product Processing Marketing Service providers engaged in Value Chain % of people engaged in the value chain S S ND S 41-60 Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of:% Chicken Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth (local) in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain S S S S 81-100 Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of:% Cattle Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth (meat) in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain L S M S 21-40% Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Apiculture Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth (bee keeping) in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain S L S M 81-100% Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Small ruminants (Sheep and Goats) Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain Conventions Service Providers: Suppliers Farmers Processors Wholesalers/ retailers S small-scale M medium-scale L large-scale ND: No data 5 Importance of women, 4 youth men and women: 3 1 = very low; 2 = low; 3 = medium; 4 = high; 5 = very high; 0 =non-exsistant; N/D = no data.2 1 Figure 5: Characterization of the selected value chains in Samburu County the market, and slaughtering. At the marketing stage, for honey, beeswax, royal jelly, propolis, and pollen the main actors are farmers, intermediaries, service production. Bee products are used as food and as a providers, wholesalers, and retailers. The key activities source of household income. In Samburu, bees are at this stage are linking farmers to buyers, selling of kept in both traditional and modern beehives, such as live animals, and provision of market information. Langstroths or Kenya top bar hives. 2.4.4. Apiculture (Beekeeping) Across the country, 20-40% of households participate in the beekeeping value chain. With the support of Beekeeping is a low-cost activity requiring only NARIGP, most farmer groups are now embracing the basic skills and small resources. Bees can be kept in project. Men are the primary participants in the local temperate, semi-arid, and tropical conditions as long beekeeping value chain. At the input supply stage, as there is abundant, flowering vegetation available suppliers offer modern beehives and equipment, such for long periods throughout the year. Bees require as harvesting kits and processing materials, to support access to water. Famers in Samburu mainly keep bees farmers. Most of the suppliers come from outside the Samburu County 11 county and the county government. The key activities More specifically, the beef cattle and small ruminant at this stage are sourcing beehive equipment, assessing value chains in Samburu County experience challenges beehive locations, and setting up and installing including inadequate modern abattoirs and holding beehives. At the on-farm stage, farmers engage in hive grounds; high breeding costs; weak and uncoordinated inspection to monitor progress and assess timing for marketing; exploitation by intermediaries; market colony splitting. At the post-harvest stage, farmers and inefficiencies; and lack of market information. The processors are engaged in collection of bee products, county does not have adequate capacity, in terms bulking, transporting, storage, and value addition of physical and human resource capital to manage (processing). Wholesalers, retailers, and farmers are all the livestock markets effectively and efficiently. engaged in the output market. Their key activities are The poultry sector is constrained by inadequate promotion of bee products, marketing, and selling marketing information; the failure of producers to take the products. Farmers have organized themselves full advantage of existing opportunities; inadequate into beekeeping groups across the three sub-counties technologies and facilities to process or extend product and they sell their crude honey to Samburu Bee shelf life; poor product handling; lack of regulated Keeping Cooperative for processing (Samburu County pricing; high transportation costs; exploitation by Government, 2018). intermediaries; poor road infrastructure and long distances to input and output markets; expensive 2.5. Agricultural Sector Challenges power tariffs for processing and storage of chicken products and inputs; lack of certification for chicken input suppliers and products; and lack of timely access Agricultural production in the Samburu County has not to inputs. yet reached its potential. Changing and unpredictable rainfall patterns have greatly affected farmers’ ability Apiculture is constrained by inadequate processing to plan their farming activities. Farmers continue to technologies that extend honey shelf-life and increase use outdated and ineffective farming technologies and returns; a lack of product certification; poor market efforts to increase agricultural productivity have been linkages; inadequate supply of beekeeping equipment; constrained by research extension farmer linkages a lack of value-addition infrastructure; and the inability that are inadequate. Crop production is constrained of farmers to meet the rigorous local and international by limited access to agricultural farm inputs (fertilizer, market requirements. Limited access to quality seeds, chemicals, and machinery) and agricultural beekeeping inputs and equipment is an important finance services (credit and insurance), high incidence challenge to apiculture in the county. crop pests and diseases, and inappropriate farming practices. Extension service is a critical agents of change necessary to transform subsistence farming 3. Climate Change and into modern, sustainable agriculture that promotes household food security, improves income and Agriculture: Risks and reduces poverty. However, access to extension Vulnerabilities services is currently limited due to a shortage of agricultural extension services and officers. Poor rural In generating this profile, we assessed past trends and road conditions have led to high transport costs for future projections of precipitation and temperature, agricultural inputs and products. Livestock feed and computed several related hazards from these supplementation is limited due to their cost and the two variables. These hazards included extreme inaccessibility of input markets (Samburu County hydrological events (including flash floods), drought, Government, 2018). moisture stress, heat stress, and the start and length of the growing seasons. The growing season was defined The main challenges to the livestock sub-sector as follows: the first season (long rain) is the 100-day include the prevalence of livestock disease outbreaks, wettest period from January to June, while the second inadequate grazing resources, a low level of value season (short rain) is the 100-day wettest period from addition, insufficient early warning information, a lack July to December (KMD, 2020). of cooling facilities, disorganized markets, frequent droughts, conflicts over water and communal grazing We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) areas, and cattle rustling. Most of grazing areas in the 8.5, one of the four greenhouse gas concentration county are in gazetted forests, reducing pastoralists’ trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel access to pasture, especially during periods of extreme on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment climatic conditions. The main barriers include poor Report (AR5) in 2014. Future climate projections were governance of the rangelands—largely due to the generated based on an ensemble of multiple Coupled absence of an appropriate legal framework for land Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models (Taylor tenure, a weak framework for disaster response, and et al., 2012), using RCP 8.5 for two future periods, inappropriate or inadequate social and financial service 2030 and 2050.2 systems (Samburu County Government, 2018). 2 For historical precipitation and temperature trends, we used the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS). For future climate projections we used an ensemble of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012, Navarro-Racines et al 2020), specifically the MOHC_HADGEM2_ES, CESM1_CAM5, GFDL_CM3, MPI_ESM_LR, and MIROC_MIROC5 models 12 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series To assess droughts and dry spells, we focused on the The annual rainfall trends does not show any significant maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), increase in the past but some variability. By 2040, defined as days receiving rainfall measuring less than rainfall will decrease slightly during the long rainy 1mm (precipitation < 1 mm day-1). We determined season while during the short rainy season, rainfall heat stress by measuring the total number of days with will significantly increase (Figure 8). The annual mean maximum temperatures greater than or equal to 35°C temperature trends showed an increase from 1985 (NT35). Growing days are the days during a season which will continue towards 2060, in both season when average temperatures are greater than or equal (Figure 9). to 5°C and precipitation exceeds half the potential evapotranspiration. The start of the growing season Past trends and future projections of climate hazards was determined by the occurrence of 5 consecutive identified drought, heat stress, floods, and erosion risk growing days, while the length of the growing period as the major hazards in the county. Risks in the county (LGP) was determined as the total number of growing are modulated by topography: while temperature and days. precipitation risks are both expected to increase in the future, flood risk is a moderate hazard in the second For each season, heavy precipitation events were season for higher elevations, while the risk of heat captured with the 5-day running average of rainfall, stress is more urgent at lower elevations. Overall, the indicative of floods, and the 95th percentile of daily second season is expected to become more suitable precipitation, indicative of extremely high rainfall over for crop growing. a short period of time, indicating flash flooding risk. The 95th percentile of daily precipitation distribution, Historically (defined as the period 1985-2015), the based on the 100 wettest days per season per year, number of CDD in Samburu County was 50 or was calculated for each pixel. fewer in the first rainy season and less than 70 in the second. Our future projections (for the period 2021- To assess the degree adequacy of rainfall and soil 2061), suggest that the county could experience an moisture to meet the potential water requirements overall increase of up to 30 additional CDD in the first for agriculture, indicators for drought stress were rainy season, suggesting a significant increase in the examined in terms of the number of consecutive days incidence of drought. In the second rainy season, in each season where the ratio of actual to potential projections indicate far lower incidence of CDD with evapotranspiration (ETa/ETp) is below 0.5. This was an overall decrease of up to 35 CDD (Figure 10). calculated for each pixel per season per year by evaluating soil’s water capacity and evapotranspiration Historically, the P5D values indicated a low risk of flood to define the number of days that could undergo a risk throughout the county. Future climate projections certain level of stress. indicate that P5D values may increase at higher elevations regions by 8 mm or more, suggesting 3.1. Climate Change and Variability: increased flood risk in areas like Maralal, Porro, Kisima, Historic and Future Trends Wamba, the Matthews Range, the Ndoto Mountains and Mount Nyiro. In the second rainy season, there could be an increase of around up to 15 mm Samburu County has historically seen monthly precipitation over the future period (Figure 11). Future temperatures varying from 15-30°C (Figure 6). The climate projections indicate that 95th percentile of daily county has two main rainy seasons. The first growing precipitation (which is an indicator of heavy rainfall) will season (the long rainy season) runs from February to somewhat remain the same, with a variation between June; the second season (short rains) occurs between 7.5 mm on either side. August and December. Dry seasons are experienced in two annual phases; the first phase occurs in January In the first season, historically the total number of and February and the second phase usually falls days with a maximum temperature greater or equal between June and September (Figure 7). to 35°C varied between 10 and 20. In the future, the total number of days will significantly increase in lower elevations, suggesting future extreme heat events. Samburu County 13 Figure 6: Elevation (left), historical (1985-2015) annual mean precipitation in mm (center), and historical (1985-2015) annual mean temperature in °C (right) for Samburu County for the long rainy season ‘Long rainy season’ ‘Short rainy season’ Figure 7: Historical monthly mean temperature and precipitation for Samburu County. The long rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from January to June, while the second, short rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from July to December. Bars represent total monthly precipitation and lines represent maximum (red) and minimum (blue) monthly mean temperatures (average 1985-2015) 14 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Figure 8: Annual total rainfall trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060 Figure 9: Annual mean temperature trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) Samburu County 15 Figure 10: Historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) for the number of CDD for the long rainy season 16 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Figure 11: Historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) for maximum 5 days running average precipitation for the short rainy season Samburu County 17 3.2. The Climate from Farmers´ value chains and assessed key risks across the value Perspectives chain stages i.e. input supply, on farm production, post-harvest/production and product marketing. The Climate change has greatly affected the environment, results are presented in the next sections. livelihoods, and food security in Samburu County. Farmers here have experienced climate variability that In addition to the aforementioned climate hazards that has affected their agricultural activities. The county affect Samburu County, the locust invasion has also has erratic rainfall, which varies significantly in amount hit the county in the recent past. Billions of insects and distribution across the county. Temperatures have devoured crops and grazing lands (browse and likewise vary. Currently, mornings and evenings are pasture), threatening the food security and livelihoods cold, especially in the highlands, when they used to be of a population in a region already weakened by more moderate. Farmers believe that human activities extreme-climate events and conflicts. In particular, such as deforestation and environmental degradation the cattle (beef) value chains and the small ruminants are the cause of climate change in the county. Climate (goats and sheep) value chains have been most change has greatly affected crop farming and livestock affected (Reach Initiative, 2021; FAO, 2020). rearing and contributes to the current poverty levels in the county. Climatic variability further reduces the The sections below highlight the major climate risks land’s capacity to support livelihoods, accelerating that they pose to the major value chains. environmental degradation. This is made apparent by significant reductions in vegetation cover and pasture 3.3.1. Cattle (Beef) size, soil erosion, and increasing resource-based conflicts. The most notable climatic hazards identified within the beef value chain in Samburu County are drought The most common changes reported by farmers and floods. The consequences of drought at the input include rising temperatures; recurrent droughts; erratic supply stage are a significant increase in demand for rainfall patterns; increased rainfall; flash flooding inputs such as feeds and drugs; disease outbreaks incidence; and longer cold seasons. They report due to lack of veterinary support services; insufficient effects including crop failure; increased incidences financial resources to mitigate drought’s effects; low of pests and disease; increased water scarcity; acute breeding; and high cattle mortality rates. The severity food shortages; reduced pasture production; soil of these effects ranges from moderate to severe. At the degradation; and declines in food security and livelihood on-farm stage, activities including feeding, vaccination, opportunities. These effects all exacerbate stress and deworming, and spraying are affected. This is because inter-tribal conflicts over natural resources like water of the scarcity or high price of feeds; increases in and pasture. Frequent crop failures due to drought or parasites; inadequate water supplies; and the high costs high temperatures increase people’s susceptibility to of acaricides and spraying equipment. The severity at food insecurity and poverty. High temperatures lead this stage ranges from moderate to severe. At the post- to high evaporation rates in some parts of the county harvest stage, risks include destocking unsupportable that necessitate supplemental irrigation for food crops animals at low prices; increased transportation costs and pasture. Heat stress reduces feed intake among due to long distances and extreme temperatures; and animals, resulting in poor growth and low production of reductions in slaughtering due to low animal body milk and meat. Excessive flooding, especially at higher weight. The severity at this stage is moderate. Market elevations, occasionally leads to soil degradation and stage effects include reductions in linkages between increased incidence of pests and disease. Variability in farmers and buyers; price fluctuations due to long rainfall due to climate change patterns can adversely distances to markets; low prices due to low body weight; affect Value Chain Development. and unregulated prices from buyers and traders. The severity at this stage is moderate to severe. Along the 3.3. Climate Vulnerabilities across value chains all genders are impacted. Agricultural VCCs. Floods at the input supply stage reduce veterinary Expected future climate variation and change services due to compromised road networks; increase pose serious threats to the agricultural value chain disease outbreaks due to floods; however, fodder commodities selected for analysis in this study. Based availability can improve breeding quality and improve on the historic and future climate scenarios for the the body weight of cattle. The severity flooding indicators presented in the Samburu workshop2, consequences at this stage is moderate. At the on-farm participants identified drought and floods as the most stage, increased availability of feeds and low prices important hazards to all four selected value chains. To result in high productivity, but floods and equally cause assess climate vulnerabilities across the selected value disease outbreaks (e.g., Hoof and Mouth Disease); chains in Samburu further discussions were carried out decrease disease surveillance due to impacted road with relevant actors in the 3-day stakeholder workshop. networks; and the high cost of acaricides for spraying In separate value chain commodity groups they ticks. The severity at this stage is minor to moderate. identified two most important climate hazards for their 3Samburu Stakeholder Workshop: Kenya Climate Risk County Profiles – Phase III 18 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series At the post-harvest stage, flooding leads to a low breading rates, and high mortality rates. The severities number of animals to be collected at high prices of drought consequences at the input production and high transport costs due poor road networks as stage are severe. At the on-farm production stage, result of flood damage. The severity at this stage is the impacts of drought on production due to limited moderate. The market stage sees selling and pricing spraying, deworming, and vaccination activities, all affected positively by flooding, which causes higher of which lead to increased incidence of disease and demand than supply. The severity at this stage is mortality. Drought also results in low production of moderate to severe. Along the value chains all genders meat and milk. The severity is moderate to severe are impacted. at this stage. At the post-harvest stage, bulking and fattening, transportation, and slaughtering are all 3.3.2. Local Chicken affected by drought. Bulking and fattening are reduced due to feeds of inadequate quality and high cost; low Local chicken production in Samburu County is supply; and increases in the operational costs for most severely affected by drought and floods. The collecting and transporting animals to market. The most affected by the risks are youth and women. A consequences are severe at this stage. At the output notable consequence of drought at the input supply market stage, drought leads to reduced market stage is feed scarcity; reduced supply and high cost of linkages and provision of market information, both raw materials and fluctuations in feed quality reduce due to low supply and demand. The severity is severe the production of local chicken. Periods of drought at this stage. also reduce farmers’ access to veterinary services due to low supply and result in insufficient capital for The consequences of extreme rainfall at the input equipment (feeders, drinkers). The severity at this stage supply stage affect the small ruminant value chain ranges from minor to high. At the on-farm production positively, as the rainfall increases feeds, water, the stage, drought adversely affects production activities. quality of breeding. Extreme rainfall also carries risks, Feeding is reduced due to feed costs, leading to however, such as the limited provision of veterinary health deterioration; vaccination activities decline, services, higher disease incidence, and increased leading to high mortality rates. The severity of these animal mortality. Impact severity is moderate to severe consequences is minor to major. At the post-harvest at this stage. Extreme rainfall increases incidence of stage, the consequences are increased costs of tick and worm infestations, thus increasing demand transportation. The bulking of chicken by processors for acaricides. Because extreme rainfall damages becomes a problem due to high demand and the low road networks, inputs (vaccines and drugs) become prices of by-products. The severity is moderate to more expensive or even unavailable. The severity major at this stage, with women and the youth heavily is moderate at this stage. At the post-harvest stage, impacted. The market stage is affected by low supply the impacts of extreme rainfall on production are of live chickens and eggs, which sell at low prices. The generally positive, with increases in bulking, fattening, severity is moderate to major at this stage. and slaughtering activities due to availability of high-quality feeds, high market prices, and high supply and At the input supply stage, floods affect local chicken demand. However, negative effects at the marketing by delaying feeds supplies and the provision stage include poor roads, high operational costs, and of equipment and veterinary services due to high mortality rates due to transportation delays. The compromised infrastructure. At the on-farm stage, severity is moderate at this stage. At the market stage, crop destruction also reduces feed availability. During selling and the provision of market information are flooding, disease outbreaks increase, and the cost reduced. The severity is moderate at this stage with all of vaccination and treatment is higher. The severity genders and traders impacted. is major. At the post-harvest stage, poor roads delay the supply of live chickens and eggs. Similarly, market 3.3.4. Apiculture (Beekeeping) demand for chicken declines due to insufficient supply reducing slaughtering activities. Floods also increase The notable climate hazards affecting beekeeping are operational costs in the collection and bulking of drought and extreme rainfall. The effect of drought chicken. The severity is major at this stage, with heavy on beekeeping at the input supply stage is severe, as impacts on women and the youth. Similarly, marketing it reduces time for siting suitable beehive locations. activities are affected by low supply levels for local Men are most impacted at this stage, due to their poultry. The severity is major. involvement in this activity. At the on-farm stage, beehive inspection, colony separation, and harvesting 3.3.3. Small Ruminants (Goats and Sheep) are limited due to the shortage of bee swarms and deforestation that has cleared forests and depleted Drought and extreme rainfall events most affect the naturally available bee plants that reduce production small ruminant value chain in Samburu County and of honey products. Effects are severe at this stage, impact all genders. The consequences of drought at with primary impacts on men and the youth. At the the input supply stage are feed shortages, which in post-harvest stage, farmers suffer severe impacts turn lead to low meat production, increased conflict from drought, which affects storage, transportation, over resources, limited veterinary services, low and processing activities due to reduced honey yields. Samburu County 19 Men and youth are impacted at this stage. Promotion, adaptation measures by farmers in the livestock value selling, and marketing at the market stage are also chains include: controlled grazing patterns; fodder affected by the effect of drought due to low yields and production, harvest, and storage; disease control; reduced supply of honey products. The severity is using AI; increasing slaughterhouse numbers in severe at this stage with men impacted. all markets; bulk-feed purchasing; digging cut-off drains; training farmers on vaccine handling; routine The consequences of extreme rainfall at the input deworming; using herbal medicines; routine spraying; supply stage impact beekeeping by reducing suitable providing feeding supplements; mass vaccination; land for the establishment of apiaries due to floods and disease surveillance; fodder conservation; and using poor road infrastructure. Floods can also render hives drugs and vaccines. inaccessible or destroy them. The severity is moderate with men mostly impacted. At the on-farm production Apiculture adaptation strategies include bulk collection stage, extreme rainfall has moderately negative and storage of honey; utilizing queen rearing to trigger impacts on beehive inspection, colony separation, and reproduction colony splitting; constructing modern harvesting; this leads to delayed on-farm activities and beehives; making beehives outer cover that provides reduced honey production. The severity is moderate at weather protection; promoting flow hive technology; this stage, with men impacted. The post-harvest stage using settling tanks to separate honey and wax; is affected when low honey yields curtail activities such planting bee-friendly trees in the apiary sites; and as transporting, storage, and processing. Damage providing syrup in the apiaries. to transport infrastructure can also hinder access to storage facilities, processing infrastructure, and To deal with the locust invasion in their communities, markets. The severity is moderate at this stage and most of the residents in the area have resorted to men are most strongly affected. At the market stage, chasing and shouting at them while some other actors promotion, selling, and marketing are affected by low that include the government, non-government and or inadequate supply and production of honey. The community actors have resorted to aerial and ground severity is moderate and all genders impacted. spraying to control their sizes of the devouring pests. Moreover, they have also implemented desert locust 4. Adaptation to Climate surveillances, reseeding of range lands and cash Change and Variability assistance to the affected households. 4.2.2 Potential Adaptation options 4.1. Factors Determining Future Vulnerability and Impacts of climate change Potential adaptation practices include trainings and on-farm demonstrations on sustainable land management practices; livelihood diversification Climate change and variability affect weather patterns, (e.g. beekeeping); livestock marketing and rangeland cause shifts in seasons, and therefore have serious management; promotion of the leather craft and dairy implications for food production and productivity. industries; building awareness about the importance of To mitigate the negative impacts of climate change destocking; and fodder production and conservation. and variability, farming communities are adopting Other initiatives include enhancing agricultural different strategies. Adaptation is, however, hindered mechanization; increasing access to agricultural by inadequate technology advancement; limitations insurance services; and promoting horticulture and on extension support due to current policy frameworks increasing crop productivity through the provision and a lack of political goodwill; insufficient guidelines of subsidized farm inputs. Investment in basic public for livestock polices and regulations, especially services such as the provision of potable water, improved concerning disease outbreaks and drug prices; road infrastructure, expanded electric networks, and the high cost of quality feeds and drugs; limited education could help reduce poverty among farmers. access to veterinary services; poor road networks; Reduced poverty would enable farmers to invest in high transportation costs; inter-ethnic conflicts over activities that secure their livelihoods and help them to resources such as pasture and water; and weak and adequately use agricultural inputs for the increase of uncoordinated market structures and linkages. productivity and incomes. 4.2 Climate Change Adaptation Options Farmers’ current practices will be enhanced through increased access to information, technology, and improved inputs. Print and electronic media, 4.2.1 On-going Adaptation options Information, and Communication Technologies (ICT) can improve access to market, climate, and Farmers in Samburu County currently employ a wide production information in the county. A comprehensive range of adaptation measures to increase the resilience meteorological communications system is necessary of their production systems and livelihoods in the face for the county. This could be developed into an of a changing and unpredictable climate (Figure 9). effective early warning system that can be coupled Some of adaptation strategies are specific to certain with information about coping strategies. Adopting value chains, while others are cross-cutting. On-going 20 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series electronic extension (e-extension) to cater to the honey processing, packaging, transportation, stocking, diverse needs of stakeholders; modern communication and marketing and providing other services such as technologies like radio, mobile phones, websites; hive crafting. Efficient extension services for cattle e-marketing; and e-technology for disease surveillance rearing, management, and marketing will be required and tracking will enhance Samburu’s climate change to cope with and adapt to changes in climate and the adaptation response. resulting impacts. The county requires more trainings on adaptation to climate change, greater access to Farmers would benefit from enhanced insurance agricultural insurance services, and improved access cover for livestock. It is also important to boost to socially inclusive financial services. entrepreneurship, diversify investment across sectors, increase employment opportunities for the growing To control and contain the locusts, it is important to numbers of youth, and invest in high-value crop strengthen early warning systems for locust invasion, varieties and livestock breeds. For the apiary subsector, to bolster the surveillance capacity as well as have the adaptation strategies should include building capacity necessary equipment and staff for aerial and ground for honey producers at value chain stages involving spraying of chemicals. Samburu County 21 Adaptation strategies used in selected value chains in Samburu County Cattle Provision of ( ) On-Farm Harvesting Product Beef Inputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Increase of input prices; outbreak Low productivity; scarcity of feed Low prices for livestock Low prices due to emaciated of diseases associated with grains; high feed prices; increase carcasses; high transport costs; animals drought; reduced breeding; high in drought-associated parasites; low livestock body weight mortality rates; frequent abortion increase in disease surveillance; Drought insufficient water Consequences Magnitude of Impact Moderate-Severe Moderate-Severe Moderate Severe Farmers’ Current Planting of drought-resistant and Animal migration (pastoralism); Working through strategic Networking; formation of early-maturing forage crops; hay purchasing; feeding survival marketing points; building abattoirs cooperatives, establishing Coping Strategies animal tracking; training of pellets; supplementing with in each market point; livestock county policies para-vets; introducing improved vitamins; increasing water pans; off-take breeds; controlled breeding sinking boreholes for ease of spraying Capacity building on pasture Training on feed formulation and Training on the importance of Building awareness on Potential production, preservation, and establishment of feed lots; animal holding grounds for marketing/ auction days; storage; purchasing of seeds and establishment of strategic stores; marketing; building of modern introducing apps for marketing; Adaption Options equipment; equipping establishment of vaccine abattoir; capacity building on introducing liveweight scale/ vet-laboratory for fast disease distribution centers in every value addition price tagging; holding virtual testing; introducing sub-county; deworming and training days for farmers e-technology in disease vaccination; capacity building on surveillance and tracking; capacity the importance of cattle dips building on good quality breeds management committees Financial stability enables Economic factors: high feed Infrastructure: inadequate Political factors; weak agricultural Underlying Factors livestock feed purchase / livestock costs; high input prices auction yards & abattoirs; poor policies; structures and regulatory transport to places where feeds road network frameworks and water available Moderate demand for inputs; High productivity; availability of High transportation costs;, high Delayed transportation because impassable roads constrain input seeds, low feed prices ; increase livestock prices; high body weight of poor roads/floods; demand is supply in wet weather associated higher than supply (few animals diseases- e.g. foot & mouth in the market) disease; increase in disease Flood surveillance costs; high risk of Consequences waterborne diseases, high acaricide cost Magnitude of Moderate Minor-Moderate Moderate Moderate-Severe Impact Fodder conservation; Controlled grazing/ grazing plans; Improvement of infrastructure; Formation of cooperatives; Farmers’ Current planting/bulking of fodder; fodder conservation; provision of increased number of abattoirs in all networking; establishing policy and Coping Strategies centralized vaccination: training of vaccines; water harvesting, market points regulatory frameworkspara-vets disease control Equipping veterinary laboratory; Establishing vaccine centers at Purchasing trucks to transport Introducing sales apps; Potential introducing e-technology on sub-county level; establishing more livestock to abattoir; constructing introducing live weighing scales Adaption Options disease surveillance and spray races/dips; establishing modern abattoirs at sub-county and price tagging animals; holding tracking; introducing / building cattle dips management level; value addition of slaughter organized auction days; genebank in existing livestock committees; establishing animals by-products developing and using digital tools improvement center; establishing holding grounds en route to market for data collection of buyers & A.I facility; establishing model sellers; feed lots; farmers’ capacity building for feed formulation; establishing strategic stores Economic factors: high input costs; Economic factors: high cost of Infrastructure: inadequate auction Political factors: weak agricultural Underlying Factors high breeding & veterinary service feeding, spraying & vaccination or yards/collection yards, and policies, structures and regulatory costs deworming abattoirs; poor road network frameworks 22 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Apiculture Provision of On-Farm Harvesting Product (Bee keeping) Inputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Poor roads; difficulties in setting Beehive inspection: daily bee Inadequate honey for processing; Selling affected by low production up an apiary; rain destroys activities are low making it transportation- poor road of honey; low yields hence no installed beehives/welting impossible to inspect; colony networks promotion separation- is not possible (reproduction is low) Extreme Rainfall Consequences Magnitude of Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Impact Constructing roofed/modern hive; Introducing green feeding to Bulk collection, storage and Establish platforms for Farmers’ Current using waterproof, quality materials trigger reproduction; introducing aggregation points at respective promotion e.g. websites, local Coping Strategies flow hive technology zones radio, TV, Facebook; door-to-door deliveries Introducing bee-friendly plants in Using centrifugal machine to avoid Grading honey according to Regional and national exhibitions; every homestead e.g. bottle comb damage; introducing the nectar e.g. croton, acacia e-marketing platform; Potential brush, sunflower, hyacinth, complete processing system with web-adverts; forming a collateral marigolds, blackberries, settling tanks, wax processors, union; signing formal contracts Adaption Options pumpkins, strawberries, honey press; enhancing collection with buyers raspberries; capacity building on centers in every zone hive construction and beekeeping accessories; pre-qualification of local merchants to source hives Underlying Factors Industrialization: inadequate Biophysical factors: adverse Institutional: inadequate Infrastructural factors: poor road industries/manufacture of bee environmental factors affect honey collateral and strong cooperative network across the county keeping equipment and lack of production movement to perform value constrains marketing artisans in the county addition of honey Reduced suitability of locations to Small, dormant swarms and Processing: low yields which Low honey produced hence low apiaries colony separation is not possible; affects processing promotion and sales inadequate foliage leads to reduced honey production Drought Consequences Magnitude of Severe Severe Severe Severe Impact Cooperatives and unions to link Development of farmer field Using centrifuge machines to draw Establishing cooperatives to add Farmers’ Current farmers & groups to suppliers; school to improve bee manage- honey without breaking the combs; value, package; label and grade; planting bee-friendly trees in ment and colony inspection; using settling tanks to separate creating awareness through local Coping Strategies apiary sites; providing syrup in the establishing modern beekeeping honey and wax; establishing and radio FM, TV, exhibition, SMS and apiaries; training on construction to improve splitting large colonies; enhancing honey collection centers digital media; diversifying honey of bee equipment using clearer boards when to improve transport logistics products- bee syrup, wax, pollen harvesting to avoid killing bees and honey grading during drought periods Introducing bee-friendly trees; Installing surveillance cameras in Using centrifugal machines to Grading honey; regional and Potential pre-qualification of local the hive- a tracker in every queen; avoid comb damage; introducing a national exhibition; e-marketing Adaption Options merchants to source the introducing double suppers in the complete processing system with platforms, web adverts, forming a beehives, training local artisans langstroth to create space for the settling tanks, wax processor and collateral union; signing formal swarm; placing queen excluders to honey press; enhancing collection Ecocnoonmtriac:c itnsa wdeitqhu abtuey cearpsital to separate honey and pollen/broods; centers in every honey zone purchase bulk/large volumes of placing comb sheets/comb starters honey to market during drought with plastic cells period; social factors: the enterprise is associated with cultural influences Educational status: to adopt bee Inadequate extension support Inadequate facilities exacerbating Economic- inadequate capital to Underlying Factors technologies; levels of hindered by lack of policy poor supply logistics in honey purchase bulk/large volumes of industrialization: not yet exploited framework and political goodwill collection honey to market during drought and structured; human resource: period; Social factors- the limited workmanship and human enterprise is associated with capital; shortage of raw materials cultural issues for constructing hives; sourcing of equipment: there is inadequate capital to buy beehives Samburu County 23 Chicken Provision of On-Farm Harvesting( ) ProductLocal Inputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Feed shortage; Feed shortage; Increase of white meat in hotels/ Promotion-: market information will low demand for equipment low demand for equipment; disease eateries; increasing supply of be strengthened as a result of easy outbreaks as a result of dust chicken and b-products leading to access to buyers; the sales of particles; farmers will resort to using low prices chicken and by products will be high Drought traditional ways of treating chickens but at low pricesbecause of low income Consequences Magnitude of Minor-Moderate Minor-Major Moderate-Major Moderate-Major Impact Training on how to make feeds; Farmers’ training on proper chicken Purchasing in bulk at eateries/res- Establishing a good storage Farmers’ Current storing feeds in bulk; training farmers feeding; training on proper poultry taurants; establishing a good facility by groups of farmers for on equipment making and handling ; house cleaning; forming groups & storage facility for bulking products bulking products & byproducts; Coping Strategies training farmers on how to handle cooperatives to enhance cold-chain to enhance quality using individual farmers/groups vaccines storage to promote chicken products & by-products, training groups on utilizing chicken products Bulk feed purchasing; training Storing feeds in bulk for use in Establishing a good storage Establishing good farmer-group farmers on how to make their own droughts, encourage production of facility for bulking products or storage facilities for bulking Potential feeds; training farmers, youth and cereals and other chicken feed; by-products to enhance quality; products/ by products; training Adaption Options women on making their own training farmers on hygiene and ferrying products / by-products in groups on utilizing chicken equipment; training farmers on best proper poultry house cleaning bulk to reduce individual product; using individual poultry inputs methods ; forming groups & transport costs farmers/groups to promote cooperatives to enhance on cold chicken products/by products chain storage; training farmers on vaccines handling Access of veterinary services and Low income farmers lack funds to Restaurants and farmers Economic factors: due to easy access Underlying Factors inputs is affected by low income access vaccines and use traditional sell their products at lower prices to markets, some farmers sell ways of treating their poultry their products at low prices Feed supplies will be delayed due to Difficult to clean poultry houses Reduction of white meat in Due to infrastructure destruction infrastructure destruction; resulting in disease outbreaks; high eateries/restaurants; transmission of and disease outbreaks income equipment supply will be delayed; vaccine costs resulting in use of diseases leading to death and reduced for farmers and brokers/ high equipment cost of due to high traditional poultry treatments losses to farmers/traders; delayed there will be low availability of demand/ low supply; inaccessibility transportation of products (eggs and products and by-products Flood to veterinary services by local chicken) to market Consequences farmers Magnitude of Moderate-Major Major Major Major Impact Bulk feed purchasing; training farmers Using locally-available materials; Purchasing in bulk at eateries/restau- Using individual farmers/groups to Farmers’ Current on how to make their own feeds; training farmers on chicken feed rants, establishing good storage promote chicken products, training training individual farmers/ groups on consumption; digging cut-off drains facility for bulking products/by-prod- groups on utilizing chicken products Coping Strategies making artisan (Jua Kali ) products; to channel water away from poultry ucts to enhance quantity; ferrying training farmers on poultry practices house; forming groups/ cooperatives products by farmers in bulk to reduce and husbandry to enhance cold-chain storage at individual transport costs local level by use of renewable energy, training farmers on vaccine handling Potential Training farmers to make feeds Training farmers on chicken feeds Establishing a good storage facility Training groups on Adaption Options using locally-available materials; consumption; construction of poultry for bulking of products/by products to the utilization of chicken products, forming groups with common interest houses with a gentle slope on the enhance the quality; purchasing in use of individual farmers/groups to to purchase feeds in bulk; training floor for easy cleaning bulk at eateries and restaurants; promote chicken products/by-prod- champion farmers on disease establishing group storage facilities ucts prevention, control and vaccination; & using renewable energy; bulk constructing improved housing with transportation isolation rooms; training youth/women to make equipment in polytechnics within the country Infrastructure- most roads in Economic factor: some people in the Social factor: this activity is Economic factor: floods contribute to Underlying Factors Samburu county are inaccessible county earn low income and are undertaken by women & youth transmission of diseases and pests; especially during rainy seasons; unable to access vaccines hence they face disproportionate this affects some low-income earners farmers may not be able to access consequences where they will incur high veterinary services due to low disease-treatment costs and more income deaths; they will be forced to sell their products and by-products at a low income hence incurring losses 24 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Small ruminants Provision of On-Farm Harvesting Product (Sheep and Goats) Inputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Adequate feed and water; increase in High tick infestation; high demand for Availability of quality feeds; high market High linkages; access to the market foot rot incidence and pneumonia; high acaricides; high worm infestation prices; high bulking and fattening; poor demand for veterinary services,- road networks/infrastructure; losses due sheep/goat deaths; high breeding, high to prolonged hours of transporting conception rates, good quality breeds animals Heavy Rainfall Consequences Magnitude of Moderate-Severe Moderate Moderate-Severe Moderate Impact Storage for future use; controlled Planting pasture seeds; providing feed Tracking animals to markets; using Developing markets for livestock Farmers’ Current grazing; capacity building; forming supplements; routine deworming; using tracks; improving infrastructure; (infrastructure); strengthening grazing management committees; mass herbal medicine; proper feeding; mass developing abattoirs at Nomotia livestock marketing association; Coping Strategies vaccination; disease surveillance; vaccination; ring vaccination; capacity strengthening market linkages; supportive treatment; regulation of building of community diseases creating LMAs; champion farmers’ agro-dealers; use of traditional medicine; reporters; disease surveillance and capacity building; linking farmers to upgrading indigenous breeds; reporting SACCOs & registration of groups maintaining pure breeds; control inbreeding Constructing communal hay stores; Introducing communal spray bases at Linking farmers to abattoirs, improving Strengthening LMAs; forming marketing Potential upscaling pasture production; reseeding village level; establishing agro-vets & vet infrastructure (roads, communication); cooperatives and SACCOs, constructing communal range lands; sensitization on labs at community level, controlled reviving the holding grounds and modern markets; establishing effective Adaption Options disease outbreaks; introduction of grazing; routine deworming; capacity weighing scales; operationalizing the market linkages with LMAs; recruiting mobile vet labs; routine vaccinations; building farmers on deworming & drug county headquarters’ abattoirs and market monitors to disseminate market use of A.I services; introducing handling; mass vaccination, equipping establishing abattoirs at information; using local radio stations to improved breeds to farmers; capacity labs, strengthening disease surveillance county level disseminate information; establishing building farmers on breeding; controlled & reporting market information platforms, social grazing media, SMS platforms Biophysical: adequate water and feed, Policy: regulating prices and vet Economic: high supply of shoats to Economic: high demand of sheep and Underlying Factors breeding; access to vet services drugs; social-cultural - deworming, the market, high prices, availability goats, high prices and supply of shoats; tick control of quality feeds; infrastructure- poor Infrastructure:- poor road network; road networks, insecurities, and insecurity weak policies Lack of water; conflicts; low Limited access to acaricides; high Less bulking and fattening; low supply to Low supply to markets; low prices; low production; limited access to vet supply of fake drugs; high resistance to markets; high transport costs; road household income leading to services; high cost of vet drugs; acaricides; disease outbreaks (ECF); banditry increases; high meat costs; low malnutrition; no linkages of farmers to disease outbreaks ; unscrupulous low production (meat & milk); high quality milk supplies; outbreak of human markets, high exploitation of farmers dealers who sell fake drugs to farmers; worm infestations ; high drug costs; low diseases because of feeding on sick by middlemen Drought low breeding; low conception rates; productivity and high mortality; shoats; loss of jobs; increased theft high mortality rates vaccination schedules compromised; cases Consequences limited access to vet drugs; low surveillance; high vaccines and drugs costs; low immunity reduces effectiveness of vaccines Magnitude of Impact Severe Moderate-Severe Severe Severe Pasture production, harvesting and Routine/regular spraying using Planting pasture seeds; provision of Develop marketing policy; developing storage; controlled grazing; providing appropriate acaricides; controlled feed supplements/ multi-vitamins; market infrastructure/creating new feed supplements; vaccinations; grazing patterns; regular deworming control of worms;; use of trucks; markets; strengthening livestock Farmers’ Current supportive treatments; surveillance using recommended drugs, using improving road networks; developing marketing associations; creating LMAs Coping Strategies missions; regulation of agro-dealers; use herbal medicines, proper feeding abattoir at Nomotio; awareness creation at local level; strengthening market of traditional medicine; capacity building; (quality feeds and water); mass on importance of slaughtering animals linkages; formation and strengthening using improved breeds; maintaining pure vaccination, ring vaccination, disease in abattoirs of market monitors; disseminating breeds of red Maasai sheep (more surveillance and reporting, capacity market information through local radio resistant to drought); controlled building of community disease reporters station in-breeding Upscaling pasture production and Controlled grazing; farmers’ capacity Establishing feed lots; seeding Strengthening LMAs (Livestock market Potential management through seeding of building on tick control and drugs community-managed range lands; association); forming marketing Adaption Options community range lands; capacity handling; increase accessibility of linking farmers to abattoirs; improving cooperatives and SACCOs; construction building and research on pasture seeds drugs/establishment of agrovets and vet infrastructure (roads; communication); of modern markets; establishing and seedlings, and on-farm feeds labs; controlled grazing; farmers’ reviving the holding grounds and effective linkages with LMAs; recruiting processing establishment of vet and capacity building on deworming weighing scales; operationalizing the market monitors; dissemination of livestock departments at ward level; schedules; de-wormers; establishment county headquarters abattoir and market information through local FMs; establishment and equipping vet. labs at of agrovets at village level; mass establishing sub-county abattoirs; establishing market information the sub county levels; facilitation of vaccination/ supportive treatment; operationalize/reviving hide and skin platforms, social media, SMS platforms agriculture; livestock and vet personnel strengthen disease surveillance and tanning training community meat for delivery of services to farmers; reporting; facilitation of vet officers in inspectors controlled breeding (breeds; timing; service delivery capacity building on importance); use of breed resistant to drought and adopted to the area; use of A.I Underlying Factors Social cultural conflicts; biophysical: Policy: limited access to vet services Economic status: high cost of quality Lack of market information; low prices of unavailability of resources and high supply of fake drugs; feeds; high transportation cost, social shoats, low supply such as water; shortage of feeds; economic: high cost of drugs, low cultural: road banditry policy- delays/ regulation of vet drugs productivity by the government; infrastructure: no access to vet services and livestock services Figure 12: Climate variabilities and adaptation options across selected value chains in Samburu County Samburu County 25 5. Policies and strategies on Climate Change Climate changes in Samburu County are causing decreases of agricultural productivity. The County supports the formulation of policies and acts to support the implementation of appropriate climate change programs. In response to climate variability and change, the county has developed and implemented several policies and programs with a focus on adaptation and mitigation (Table 1). Table 1: National policies targeting climate change adaptation and mitigation in Samburu County Policy Year Policy Objective(s) at the County Climate Change Adaptation and Challenges and Policy Level Mitigation Interventions Gaps The Disaster 2015 Strengthens disaster risk governance Strengthening early warning A lack of legislation Risk Advocates for investments to information, preparedness and identifying enforcement Management increase resilience and disaster response officers and policies Policy preparedness Investing in affordable and quality for climate change Emphasizes effective response, early warning equipment adaptation and a “build-back-better” mentality Broadening early warning in recovery, rehabilitation, and channels reconstruction The Samburu 2015 Provides a legal and regulatory Enhances farmers’ productivity County framework for the development and and income through strategies Agricultural regulation of agricultural machinery including access to certified Reduced coordination Machinery services seeds, and agricultural and collaboration of Services Act mechanization development planning in sectors The Samburu 2018 Establishes livestock sale yards Provide for the establishment and County Promotes livestock marketing control of livestock sales yards Livestock Provides for livestock sale yard and other connected purposes. Sales Yard Act administration Promotes effective and efficient operation of livestock markets Weak coordination and collaboration between The National 2017 Increases the agricultural productivity Responding to disasters affecting public (state) and Agricultural and profitability of targeted rural the agricultural sector in selected private actors and Rural communities counties Inclusive Growth Project The 2019 Transforms crop, livestock, and Application of green growth Agricultural fishery production into commercially and Climate Smart Agriculture Sector oriented enterprises approaches to value chain Development development Support Environmental resilience for value Programme chain actors promoted Phase II 26 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 6. Institutional Capacity on Climate Change Institutional resources and capacity shape resources use actions and outcomes for increasing farmers’ adaptive capacity and climate change resilience. In Samburu County, governmental, private, non-governmental, and community-based organizations are all working on issues related to climate change, agriculture, water, and food security. Their interventions include research and extension, early warning systems, capacity building, technology provision and transfer, enhancing market linkages, offering financial and credit services, the provision of inputs, and disease surveillance. Here is a sample of key institutions that are currently supporting and implementing agricultural interventions in Samburu (Table 2). Table 2: Institutions that are currently supporting and implementing agricultural interventions in Samburu County Off-Farm services Institutions Specific interventions Challenges Ministry of Agriculture, Provides extension services and Livestock, Fisheries, and inputs Cooperatives Kenya Agricultural Livestock Develops and disseminates Research Organization technologies, innovations and Management Practices (TIMPs). The Drought Resilience and Enhancing water infrastructure for Sustainable Livelihoods Project humans, agriculture and livestock Encouraging regional water basin cooperation and coordination Improving livestock infrastructure and management Offering project management and capacity building Agriculture Research and Extension Services The National Drought RestockingManagement Authority Capacity building on conservation Providing information on drought Disaster risk reduction Afforestation Poor coordination among Samburu County Government Providing inputs and capacity the organizations that in partnership with building for the beekeeping value leads to duplication and chain The Swedish International overlapping roles and Development Cooperation efforts Agency European Union European Union Construction of one mini-modern State Department of Planning abattoir for meat processing at and Devolution Nomotio LIC. International Livestock Research Livestock research Institute Water Conservation Ministry of Water and Irrigation Administrates water technologies Strategies (e.g. irrigation infrastructure and schemes) Forest Research and Kenya Forest Research Institute Promotes conservation of forest Extension resources Kenya Forestry Service Afforestation programming Research and Department of Environment, Natural resource conservation Extension Services Natural Resources, and Disaster Disaster early warning bulletins Management Disaster response programs Climate Information Kenya Meteorological Provides weekly weather bulletins Services and Agro- Department and seasonal weather forecasts in Weather Advisories the local language Samburu County 27 Off-Farm services Institutions Specific interventions Challenges Early Warning Systems Kenya Meteorological Issues early warning warnings on and Participatory Department disasters like flooding Scenario Planning Non-Financial Agency for Technical Improves access to food, Subsidies Cooperation and Development sustainable livelihoods, water, livestock, and agriculture technology Inadequate training and technological support Caritas Provides seeds, livelihood to cope with current programs, and nutrition programs agricultural practices World Vision Supports livelihood programs Financial Subsidies and Synovus Financial Corporation Builds the capacity of focal groups Extension Services (SNV) Provides financial supportto improve the functionality and climate resilience of rural water systems These institutions and groups are critical to promoting county. Many have operations in Samburu county. cross-sectoral cooperation, sharing experiences, They provide extension; provide inputs such as and developing policies that facilitate integrated fertilizers, farm tools, high-yielding seeds, and irrigation management strategies, all of which are important equipment; develop market infrastructure; provide components of capacity building. training and technology transfer; and link farmers to markets by encouraging them to organize themselves Non-governmental organizations, faith-based into groups that strengthen their bargaining power. organizations, and international organizations all play a key role in the socio-economic development of the 7. Synthesis and Outlook Samburu County’s agricultural sector has not been able to sustain the food production necessary to support its the short- and long-term future. More sophisticated grown population due in part to the changing climate. management of the public and private funds aimed The increased frequency and severity of climatic at agricultural development would facilitate the shocks such as drought, floods, and extreme rainfall functioning established institutions, which currently has negative impacts on agriculture and food security. lack the resources to effectively deliver services. Concerted efforts at the farm, community, and county levels are necessary to deploy solutions, interventions, To complement on-farm adaptation services, off- and instruments that address the impacts of climate farm activities such as early warning and extension change on agriculture. It is still necessary to enhance services should be enhanced. Other initiatives the capacity of farmers to cope with these new include enhancing agricultural mechanization, conditions. This should involve both short- and long- increasing access to agricultural insurance services, term adaptation measures that target production promoting horticulture, increasing crop productivity systems and value chains key to food security and with subsidized farm inputs, and insurance schemes. livelihoods. Investments in basic public services such as providing potable water, improving road infrastructure, extending Necessary adaptation interventions include market- electric grids, and providing education can help based mechanisms and policy-driven economic reduce poverty among farmers. Reduced poverty can incentives to encourage the uptake of adaptation best allow farmers to invest in activities that secure their practices. Implementation may also require policy livelihoods and give them the means to adequately use dialogue aimed at the institutional reforms and new agricultural inputs (fertilisers, seeds, vaccines, irrigation governance structures that are necessary to achieve equipment, etc.) to increase productivity and incomes. climate adaptation and sustainability. There is an Extension services on modern technology, innovation, urgent need to implement adaptation measures that and management practices; value addition; and can help farmers reduce their vulnerability and cope formal markets should be made available to enhance with the adverse consequences of climate change in production and improve livelihoods. 28 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Adaptation programs will require the involvement different market segments achieve premium value of multiple stakeholders, including policymakers, for. Producers also need to become more profit- and extension agents, non-governmental organizations, business-oriented, with stronger negotiating capacity researchers, merchants, financial institutions, and to improve their access to farming inputs, technologies, farmers. Extension services are critical for disseminating agricultural services (including extension and finance), and sharing knowledge among farmers to promote and markets. This will improve their ability to plan, household food security and income. Currently, a implement, manage, and monitor community-level limited number of motor vehicles, poor road networks, micro-projects. curtails the provision of adequate extension services and insufficient staffing. Commercialized agriculture A review of existing legislation is essential for the creation with greater value addition remains a key objective; of an enabling environment for climate resilience. improving agricultural productivity and value addition is This review will reflect the current challenges and an effective way to enhance food security, employment opportunities identified at local level. Potential benefits creation, and income generation. The county should will accrue vertically through shared information and provide adequate support to the livestock sector by horizontally by facilitating long-term mechanisms for helping livestock keepers form cooperative groups capacity building and knowledge sharing among key to strengthen their participation in the market. stakeholders and policy makers. Creating a policy, Establishing farmers’ associations, marketing groups, regulatory, and institutional framework that will and cooperatives to pool resources will enable farmers improve technical and technological interventions to set their own prices, sustainably manage their in the pastoral meat trade subsector and market production levels, and improve on transportation is essential. Attention should be paid to improving systems. natural resource governance; enhancing access to markets (through infrastructure, providing appropriate The county needs to build the capacity of producer credit facilities, livestock insurance, and cash-or asset- organizations to use good management practices; it based assistance); and provision of basic services like also must improve the handling of products, targeting education. 8. Works Cited ASDSP. (2014). Agricultural Sector Development KIPPRA. (2020). The Kenya Economic Report 2020. Support Programme. Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis and Fisheries. Government of Kenya, Nairobi. MoALFC. (2019). Technical Report 2019, Ministry FAO. (2020). Desert Locust Briefs. Rome, Italy. of Livestock Department, County Department of Retrieved on 30, May, 2021 http://www.fao.org/ag/ Livestock Production. Samburu County. locusts/en/archives/briefs/2515/2516/index.html Navarro-Racines, C., Tarapues, J., Thornton, P. et IPCC, 2018: Annex I: Glossary [R. Matthews (ed.)]. al.(2020) High-resolution and bias-corrected CMIP5 In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report projections for climate change impact assessments. on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre- Sci Data. 7, 7. industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening Samburu County Government. (2013). County the global response to the threat of climate change, Integrated Development Plan Samburu County 2013- sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate 2017. Government of Kenya, Nairobi. poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma- Samburu County Government. (2018). County Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Integrated Development Plan Samburu County 2018- Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. 2022. Government of Kenya, Nairobi. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press Samburu County Government. (2020). Department KMD. (2020). State of the Climate in Kenya 2020. of Special Programmes. Samburu County, Kenya. KNBS (2019). Kenya Population and Housing Census. Reach Initiative. (2021). Impact assessment of desert Vol 1. Population by County and Sub-County. Kenya locust infestation response in Samburu North and National Bureau of Statistics, Nairobi, Kenya. Samburu East sub-counties, Samburu County, Kenya, Samburu County 29 9. Acknowledgements This study is the product of the Ministry of Agriculture Livestock Fisheries and Cooperatives (MoALFC), with assistance from the Alliance of Biodiversity International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the Consultative Group on International Research (CGIAR) Research programme on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), as part of the National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP), supported by the World Bank (WB). The Document has been developed under the coordination of Evan Givertz (Alliance of Biodiversity-CIAT) and John Kimani (National Project Coordinator, NARIGP), under the technical leadership of Stephanie Jaquet and Caroline Mwongera with contributions from Harold A.E. Achicanoy, Alejandra Esquivel, Aniruddha Ghosh, Dorcas Jalang’o, Stella Kasura, Peter Kimani, Ivy Kinyua, Peter Kimani, Victor Mugo, Jessica Mukiri, Wilson Nguru, Fridah Nyakundi, Ruth Odhiambo, and Julian Ramirez. Infographics and layout and design: Sherry Adisa (Independent Consultant) Editors: Annalese Duprey, Courtney Jallo, Vincent Johnson, Kathryn Kandra, Megan Mayzelle Stephanie Pentz We acknowledge the contributions of the NARIGP team: Mary Maingi, Judy Amadiva, Jackson L. Lelengwe and Simon Lekartiwa. We also express gratitude to the following institutions for providing information to this study: Kenya Meteorological Department, Department of Agriculture, livestock, veterinary fisheries and cooperatives, Ministry of water and irrigation, Department of disaster management, Ministry of Environment, Natural Resources and Energy Agricultural Support Development Support Programme (ASDSP), Samburu County, NEMA, NDMA, RPLRP, ACTED, Red Cross, CARITAS MARALAL, Mercy Corps, and farmer groups. This document should be cited as: MoALFC. 2021. Climate Risk profile for Samburu County. Kenya County Climate Risk Profile Series. The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperatives (MoALFC), Nairobi Kenya 30 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 10. Annexes 10.1 Glossary Climate change: a change in the state of the climate that can Climate variability: Variations in the mean state and other be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate beyond that of individual weather events (IPCC, 2018). change may be due to natural internal processes or external circumstances such as modulations of the solar cycles, Drought: a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall leading volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in to a potentially disastrous shortages of water. the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (IPCC, 2018). Dry spell: a short period of low rainfall, usually not more than Climate risk: The potential for consequences where a month. something of value is at stake and where the outcome is Heat Stress: physiological stress experienced as a result of uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often excessive heat. represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): Four trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories exposure, and hazard (IPCC, 2018). adopted by the IPCC for its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The four RCPs, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, are named Climate hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact 2100 (of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2, respectively) that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources (IPCC,2018). Samburu County 31 Prepared by