Solar Irrigation and Just Energy Transitions in Agriculture: Insights from Evaluation of Gujarat’s SKY Program

Set against the backdrop of reducing agricultural emissions, improving smallholder livelihoods, and promoting sustainable groundwater use, this paper evaluates the Surya Shakti Kisan Yojana (SKY)—the world's first largescale grid-connected solar irrigation pump (SIP) scheme, launched in Gujarat, India in 2018. Using real-time monitoring data from 4321 farmers and a primary survey of 2435 farmers, the study addresses three core objectives. First, it examines the determinants of SKY participation and evaluates the scheme's technical performance, financial features, and income effects. Our findings reveal that financial constraints and risk aversion among smallholder farmers hinder scheme adoption. Farmers earn up to ₹ 21,917 (~USD 257) annually from electricity sales—43 % of their crop income—even after repaying an annual loan of ₹ 105,000 (~USD 1235). The simulation suggests that extending the loan repayment period from 7 to 10 years could nearly double farmers' income from energy sales. Second, the study assesses SKY's impact on energy use for groundwater extraction. During the Rabi (dry) season, SKY-enrolled farmers show significantly slower growth in energy consumption than non-enrolled farmers, indicating more sustainable water use. No such difference is observed in the Kharif (monsoon) season. Third, it estimates SKY's climate mitigation potential. Each participant offsets about 12.34 metric tons of CO2 annually—over twice the impact of off-grid systems—yielding 53,308 metric tons of CO2 abatement across 4321 farmers. These findings demonstrates grid-connected SIP as a scalable, climate-aligned model for energy transitions in the Global South, offering practical insights for integrated energy-water-livelihood strategies.