The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy

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cg.coverage.countryIndonesia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ID
cg.coverage.regionAsia
cg.coverage.regionEastern Asia
cg.coverage.regionSouth-eastern Asia
cg.creator.identifierClaudia Ringler: 0000-0002-8266-0488
cg.creator.identifierMark Rosegrant: 0000-0001-6371-6127
cg.creator.identifierTimothy B. Sulser: 0000-0001-7128-5283
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division
cg.identifier.publicationRankNot ranked
cg.number1148
cg.placeWashington, DC
cg.reviewStatusInternal Review
dc.contributor.authorOktaviani, Rina
dc.contributor.authorAmaliah, Syarifah
dc.contributor.authorRingler, Claudia
dc.contributor.authorRosegrant, Mark W.
dc.contributor.authorSulser, Timothy B.
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-01T14:05:33Zen
dc.date.available2024-10-01T14:05:33Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/155013
dc.titleThe impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economyen
dcterms.abstractGlobal climate change influences the economic performance of all countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8°C by 2030. Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with the rainy season ending earlier and the length of the rainy season becoming shorter. Climate change affects all economic sectors, but the agricultural sector is generally the hardest hit in terms of the number of poor affected. We assess climate change impacts for Indonesia using an Indonesian computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that focuses on the agricultural sector. Climate change input data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade. Our results show that by 2030, global climate change will have a significant and negative effect on the Indonesian economy as a whole. In these projections, we see important impacts for particular sectors in the CGE model, especially for the agricultural sector (both producers and consumers) and in rural areas and for poorer households. Real gross domestic product (GDP) drops slightly and the consumer price index (CPI) increases by a small amount. Negative GDP growth is chiefly the result of adverse impacts on agriculture and agro-based industries, with the largest impact for soybeans, rice, and paddy (unmilled rice). Decreasing output of paddy and rice will adversely affect the country's food security. Domestic prices for paddy and rice increase significantly, pushing up the CPI. Taking international food price shocks into account would increase negative impacts. We find that addressing constraints to agricultural productivity growth through increased public agricultural research investments will be important to counteract adverse impacts of climate change. Enhanced awareness of both government agencies and farmers will be needed for the rural economy to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.bibliographicCitationOktaviani, Rina; Amaliah, Syarifah; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W. and Sulser, Timothy B. 2011. The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1148. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155013en
dcterms.extent29 pages
dcterms.isPartOfIFPRI Discussion Paperen
dcterms.issued2011
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/154919en
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896291867en
dcterms.replaceshttps://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/126762
dcterms.subjectmodelsen
dcterms.subjectcomputable general equilibrium modelsen
dcterms.subjectcommoditiesen
dcterms.subjecttradeen
dcterms.subjectfood supplyen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjecttechnological changesen
dcterms.subjectcommodity marketsen
dcterms.subjectresource managementen
dcterms.subjecteconomic developmenten
dcterms.subjectpricesen
dcterms.subjectnutritionen
dcterms.subjectmalnutritionen
dcterms.typeWorking Paper

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