The Russia-Ukraine War and global food security: Impacts four years later

Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.; Broyaka, Antonina; and Dankevych, Vitalii. 2026. The Russia-Ukraine War and global food security: Impacts four years later. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies

The immediate impacts of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Ukraine’s agriculture sector were abrupt and widespread. Though Ukrainian producers have demonstrated remarkable resilience in wartime, evidence of long-term reductions in Ukraine’s grain exports has emerged. Russia’s grain exports surged early in the war, but today, weather and labor shortages are threatening Russia’s agricultural output—and its ability to utilize its food exports for global influence. Russia’s fertilizer exports confer additional economic and political advantage for Moscow, with fertilizer exports variably affected since 2022. How are the dynamics of war affecting global agriculture markets and global food security? How can Ukraine’s allies best support its agricultural recovery and long-term growth?