Farmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, India

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR multi-centre
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research institute
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Rice Research Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationCornell University
cg.coverage.countryIndia
cg.coverage.regionAsia
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Asia
cg.coverage.subregionBihar
cg.creator.identifierAvinash Kishore: 0000-0003-4625-4922
cg.creator.identifierPrakashan Chellattan Veettil: 0000-0002-2125-0178
cg.howPublishedGrey Literature
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5077316
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Development Strategies and Governance Unit
cg.identifier.publicationRankNot ranked
cg.identifier.urlhttps://ssrn.com/abstract=5077316
cg.reviewStatusInternal Review
dc.contributor.authorMkondiwa, Maxwell
dc.contributor.authorKishore, Avinash
dc.contributor.authorVeettil, Prakashan Chellattan
dc.contributor.authorSherpa, Sonam
dc.contributor.authorSaxena, Satyam
dc.contributor.authorPinjarla, Bhavani
dc.contributor.authorUrfels, Anton
dc.contributor.authorPoonia, Shishpal
dc.contributor.authorAjay, Anurag
dc.contributor.authorCraufurd, Peter
dc.contributor.authorMalik, Ram K.
dc.contributor.authorMcDonald, Andrew J.
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-24T19:52:48Z
dc.date.available2025-09-24T19:52:48Z
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/176664
dc.titleFarmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, Indiaen
dcterms.abstractIn 2022, the Indian state of Bihar experienced its sixth driest year in over a century. To document the consequences and farmer responses to drought, we collected real-time survey data across 11 districts of Bihar. We then developed a causal machine learning model to quantify the impacts of this drought and how access to affordable irrigation (through electric pumps) affected agronomic behavioural responses to the drought and ultimately determined rice yield losses. Our model addresses the empirical challenge of identifying a credible control group and conducting a counterfactual causal analysis when a factor like drought is widespread and affects nearly all sampled farmers. We find that droughts led to rice acreage reduction, transplanting delays, nursery losses, and more irrigation. For fields that were planted, we also document substantial yield losses from water stress averaging 0.94 t/ha (about 23% yield loss) with partial adaptation (0.3 t/ha) achieved through owned electric tubewell irrigation. Complementary behavioural agronomic management responses to a drought like early transplanting would have improved adaptation effectiveness of the affordable irrigation. To be effective against droughts, the huge investments in electric irrigation infrastructure appear to require complementary agricultural extension support to encourage farmers to make economically rational use of available water resources to maintain yield and profitability.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceAcademics
dcterms.available2024-12-31
dcterms.bibliographicCitationMkondiwa, Maxwell; Kishore, Avinash; Veettil, Prakashan Chellattan; Sherpa, Sonam; Saxena, Satyam; Pinjarla, Bhavani; et al. 2024. Farmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, India. SSRN Preprint available online December 31, 2024. https://ssrn.com/abstract=5077316
dcterms.extent33 p.
dcterms.issued2024
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dcterms.publisherSSRN
dcterms.subjectcrop yields
dcterms.subjectdrought
dcterms.subjectfarmers
dcterms.subjectirrigation
dcterms.subjectmachine learning
dcterms.subjectrice
dcterms.typePreprint

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