Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centre
cg.contributor.crpPolicies, Institutions, and Markets
cg.contributor.donorUnited Nations
cg.contributor.donorWorld Food Programme
cg.coverage.countryBangladesh
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2BD
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Asia
cg.coverage.regionAsia
cg.creator.identifierMateusz Filipski: 0000-0002-8997-0980
cg.creator.identifierErnesto Tiburcio: 0000-0003-1928-3082
cg.creator.identifierPaul Dorosh: 0000-0001-6049-6018
cg.creator.identifierJohn Hoddinott: 0000-0002-0590-3917
cg.creator.identifierGracie Rosenbach: 0000-0003-3518-1465
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133397
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Development Strategy and Governance Division
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Poverty, Health, and Nutrition Division
cg.identifier.publicationRankNot ranked
cg.number1862
cg.placeWashington, DC
cg.reviewStatusInternal Review
dc.contributor.authorFilipski, Mateusz J.
dc.contributor.authorTiburcio, Ernesto
dc.contributor.authorDorosh, Paul A.
dc.contributor.authorHoddinott, John F.
dc.contributor.authorRosenbach, Gracie
dc.date.accessioned2024-06-21T09:04:30Zen
dc.date.available2024-06-21T09:04:30Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/145441
dc.titleModelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladeshen
dcterms.abstractIn the context of the massive influx of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals to Bangladesh, this paper aims to evaluate the potential consequences on the Southern Bangladesh economy. It adopts an economywide perspective to study the impacts of increased labor supply and increased consumer demand in a general equilibrium framework, using a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model. The model is used to illustrate the potential effect of a large arrival of displaced populations on wages, the supply and demand of goods, and incomes of migrant and host populations. Simulations enable comparisons between possible scenarios, including two options for the size of the market being impacted (either the smaller Cox’s Bazar District, or the larger Chittagong Division) and several options for aid provisions from international actors. The databases used are the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN) and Host Community Household Survey carried out by IFPRI, BIDS, WFP and ACF in late 2018 and the official Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016. We find that if the migrants enter the Cox Bazar labor markets only, their large number could potentially lead to a large drop in wage levels of around 30%. However, under similar conditions their impact in the much larger Chittagong Division would be limited to a drop of less than 4%. Cash transfers to migrants could mitigate the wage effects by stimulating local demand, but this effect is limited. Some local households may be hurt due to lower wages and higher prices. Matched transfers to local populations and investments in local industry could potentially offset some of these negative impacts.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.bibliographicCitationFilipski, Mateusz J.; Tiburcio, Ernesto; Dorosh, Paul A.; Hoddinott, John F.; and Rosenbach, Gracie. 2019. Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya Influx in Southern Bangladesh. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1819. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145441en
dcterms.extent24 pages
dcterms.isPartOfIFPRI Discussion Paperen
dcterms.issued2019-09-04
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896296893en
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/146826en
dcterms.replaceshttps://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/133397
dcterms.subjectrefugeesen
dcterms.subjecteconomic analysisen
dcterms.subjectlabour marketen
dcterms.subjecteconomic developmenten
dcterms.subjectmigrationen
dcterms.typeWorking Paper

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