Conditions for a second wave of COVID-19 due to interactions between disease dynamics and social practices
cg.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.574514 | en |
cg.issn | 2296-424X | en |
cg.journal | Frontiers in Physics | en |
cg.volume | 8 | en |
dc.contributor.author | Pedro, Sansao A. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Ndjomatchoua, Frank T. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Jentsch, Peter | en |
dc.contributor.author | Tchuenche, Jean M. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Anand, Madhur | en |
dc.contributor.author | Bauch, Chris T. | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-12-19T12:53:52Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2024-12-19T12:53:52Z | en |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/164419 | |
dc.title | Conditions for a second wave of COVID-19 due to interactions between disease dynamics and social practices | en |
dcterms.abstract | In May 2020, many jurisdictions around the world began lifting physical distancing restrictions against the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This gave rise to concerns about a possible second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These restrictions were imposed in response to the presence of COVID-19 in populations, usually with the broad support of affected populations. However, the lifting of restrictions is also a population response to the accumulating socio-economic impacts of restrictions, and lifting of restrictions is expected to increase the number of COVID-19 cases, in turn. This suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic exemplifies a coupled behavior-disease system where disease dynamics and social dynamics are locked in a mutual feedback loop. Here we develop a minimal mathematical model of the interaction between social support for school and workplace closure and the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We find that a second wave of COVID-19 occurs across a broad range of plausible model input parameters governing epidemiological and social conditions, on account of instabilities generated by behavior-disease interactions. The second wave tends to have a higher peak than the first wave when the efficacy of restrictions is greater than 40% and when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than 2.4. Surprisingly, we also found that a lower R0 value makes a second wave more likely, on account of behavioral feedback (although a lower R0 does not necessarily cause more infections, in total). We conclude that second waves of COVID-19 can be interpreted as the outcome of non-linear interactions between disease dynamics and social behavior. We also suggest that further development of mathematical models exploring behavior-disease interactions could help us better understand how social and epidemiological conditions together determine how pandemics unfold. | en |
dcterms.accessRights | Open Access | |
dcterms.available | 2020-10-09 | |
dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Pedro, Sansao A.; Ndjomatchoua, Frank T.; Jentsch, Peter; Tchuenche, Jean M.; Anand, Madhur and Bauch, Chris T. 2020. Conditions for a second wave of COVID-19 due to interactions between disease dynamics and social practices. Front. Phys., Volume 8 | en |
dcterms.issued | 2020-10-09 | |
dcterms.language | en | |
dcterms.license | CC-BY-4.0 | |
dcterms.publisher | Frontiers Media | en |
dcterms.type | Journal Article |