The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

Simple item page
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
cg.contributor.affiliationLviv Polytechnic National University
cg.contributor.affiliationCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
cg.contributor.affiliationGraz University of Technology
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.creator.identifierFricko Oliver: 0000-0002-6835-9883
cg.creator.identifierJoeri Rogelj: 0000-0003-2056-9061
cg.creator.identifierZbigniew Klimont: 0000-0003-2630-198X
cg.creator.identifierMykola Gusti: 0000-0002-2576-9217
cg.creator.identifierNils Johnson: 0000-0002-0897-2301
cg.creator.identifierMarkus Amann: 0000-0002-1963-0972
cg.creator.identifierTatiana Ermolieva: 0000-0001-6515-1174
cg.creator.identifierNicklas Forsell: 0000-0002-4984-3231
cg.creator.identifierMario Herrero: 0000-0002-7741-5090
cg.creator.identifierChris Heyes: 0000-0001-5254-493X
cg.creator.identifierShonali Pachauri: 0000-0001-8138-3178
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004
cg.identifier.projectCCAFS: FP3_LEDPriorities
cg.identifier.projectCCAFS: FP3_LEDScaling
cg.issn0959-3780
cg.journalGlobal Environmental Change
cg.subject.ccafsLOW EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT
cg.volume42
dc.contributor.authorOliver, Fricko
dc.contributor.authorHavlík, Petr
dc.contributor.authorRogelj, Joeri
dc.contributor.authorKlimont, Zbigniew
dc.contributor.authorGusti, Mykola
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, Nils
dc.contributor.authorKolp, Peter
dc.contributor.authorStrubegger, Manfred
dc.contributor.authorValin, Hugo
dc.contributor.authorAmann, Markus
dc.contributor.authorErmolieva, Tatiana
dc.contributor.authorForsell, Nicklas
dc.contributor.authorHerrero, Mario
dc.contributor.authorHeyes, Chris
dc.contributor.authorKindermann, Georg
dc.contributor.authorKrey, Volker
dc.contributor.authorMcCollum, David L.
dc.contributor.authorObersteiner, Michael
dc.contributor.authorPachauri, Shonali
dc.contributor.authorRao, Shilpa
dc.contributor.authorSchmid, Erwin
dc.contributor.authorSchoepp, Wolfgang
dc.contributor.authorRiahi, Keywan
dc.date.accessioned2017-03-03T19:25:40Zen
dc.date.available2017-03-03T19:25:40Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/80056
dc.titleThe marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st centuryen
dcterms.abstractStudies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.bibliographicCitationFricko O, Havlik P, Rogelj J, Klimont Z, Gusti M, et al. 2017. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change 42:251–267.en
dcterms.extentp. 251-267
dcterms.issued2017-01
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0
dcterms.publisherElsevier
dcterms.subjectagricultureen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

Files

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.87 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

CCAFS Journal Articles