Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research institute
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Córdoba
cg.contributor.affiliationInstituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Spain
cg.contributor.affiliationCAB International
cg.contributor.affiliationMondelez UK R&D Limited
cg.contributor.affiliationBioversity International
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Fund
cg.contributor.initiativeClimate Resilience
cg.coverage.countryGhana
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2GH
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africa
cg.creator.identifierKauê de Sousa: 0000-0002-7571-7845
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37180-3
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.issn2045-2322
cg.issue1
cg.journalScientific Reports
cg.number10033
cg.reviewStatusPeer Review
cg.subject.actionAreaSystems Transformation
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatAGROFORESTRY
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatCACAO
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatCLIMATE CHANGE
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigation
cg.subject.sdgSDG 13 - Climate action
cg.volume13
dc.contributor.authorAriza-Salamanca, Antonio Jesús
dc.contributor.authorNavarro Cerrillo, Rafael M.
dc.contributor.authorQuero Pérez, José L.
dc.contributor.authorGallardo-Armas, Belinda
dc.contributor.authorCrozier, Jayne
dc.contributor.authorStirling, Clare
dc.contributor.authorSousa, Kauê de
dc.contributor.authorGonzález Moreno, Pablo
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-11T13:10:16Zen
dc.date.available2023-07-11T13:10:16Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/131092
dc.titleVulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africaen
dcterms.abstractPrevious research indicates that some important cocoa cultivated areas in West Africa will become unsuitable for growing cocoa in the next decades. However, it is not clear if this change will be mirrored by the shade tree species that could be used in cocoa-based agroforestry systems (C-AFS). We characterized current and future patterns of habitat suitability for 38 tree species (including cocoa), using a consensus method for species distribution modelling considering for the first time climatic and soil variables. The models projected an increase of up to 6% of the potential suitable area for cocoa by 2060 compared to its current suitable area in West Africa. Furthermore, the suitable area was highly reduced (14.5%) once considering only available land-use not contributing to deforestation. Regarding shade trees, 50% of the 37 shade tree species modelled will experience a decrease in geographic rate extent by 2040 in West Africa, and 60% by 2060. Hotspots of shade tree species richness overlap the current core cocoa production areas in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, suggesting a potential mismatch for the outer areas in West Africa. Our results highlight the importance of transforming cocoa-based agroforestry systems by changing shade tree species composition to adapt this production systems for future climate conditions.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2023-06-20
dcterms.bibliographicCitationAriza-Salamanca, A.J.; Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M.; Quero-Pérez, J.L.; Gallardo-Armas, B.; Crozier, J.; Stirling, C.; de Sousa, K.; González-Moreno, P. (2023) Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa. Scientific Reports 13(1): 10033. ISSN: 2045-2322en
dcterms.issued2023-06
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherSpringer
dcterms.subjecttheobroma cacaoen
dcterms.subjectagroforestry systemsen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectshade treesen
dcterms.subjectmodelsen
dcterms.subjecthabitat suitabilityen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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