The use of interval censored data to assess the timing of early field infestation of fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in maize fields

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, situation in Africa remains a priority threat despite significant efforts made since the first outbreaks in 2016 to control the pest and thereby reduce yield losses. Field surveys in Benin and Mali reported that approximately one-week post-emergence of maize plants, the presence of fall armyworm (egg/neonates) could be observed in the field. Scouting for fall armyworm eggs and neonates is, however, difficult and time consuming. In this study, we therefore hypothesized that the optimum timeframe for the fall armyworm female arriving to lay eggs in sown maize fields could be predicted. We did this by back-calculating from interval censored data of egg and neonates collected in emerging maize seedlings at young leaf developmental stage. Early time of ovipositing fall armyworm after sowing was recorded in field experiments. By using temperature-based models to predict phenological development for maize and fall armyworm, combined with analytical approaches for time-to-event data with censored status, we estimated that about 210 accumulated Degree Days (DD) is needed for early detection of neonate larvae in the field. This work is meant to provide new insights on timely pest detection and to guide for precise timing of control measures.