Evaluating the CMIP5 [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5] ensemble in Ethiopia: creating a reduced ensemble for rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia and the Awash Basin

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cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Water Management Instituteen
cg.coverage.countryEthiopia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ET
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6377en
cg.identifier.iwmilibraryH049591
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1097-0088en
cg.issue6en
cg.journalInternational Journal of Climatologyen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.volume40en
dc.contributor.authorDyer, E.en
dc.contributor.authorWashington, R.en
dc.contributor.authorTaye, Meron Teferien
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-20T06:10:01Zen
dc.date.available2020-03-20T06:10:01Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/107818
dc.titleEvaluating the CMIP5 [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5] ensemble in Ethiopia: creating a reduced ensemble for rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia and the Awash Basinen
dcterms.abstractThe purpose of this study was to evaluate the historical skill of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in two regions of Ethiopia: northwestern Ethiopia and the Awash, one of the main Ethiopian river basins. An ensemble of CMIP5 models was first selected so that atmosphere-only (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, AMIP) and fully coupled simulations could be directly compared, assessing the effects of coupled model sea surface temperature (SST) biases. The annual cycle, seasonal biases, trends, and variability were used as metrics of model skill. In the Awash basin, both coupled and AMIP simulations had late Belg or March-May (MAM) rainy seasons. In connection to this, most models also missed the June rainfall minimum entirely. Northwest Ethiopia, which has a unimodal rainfall cycle in observations, is shown to have bimodal seasonality in models, even in the AMIP simulations. Significant AMIP biases in these regions show that model biases are not related to SST biases alone. Similarly, a clear connection between model resolution and skill was not found. Models simulated temperature with more skill than rainfall, but trends showed an underestimation in Belg (MAM/April-May (AM)) trends, and an overestimation in Kiremt or July-September (JAS/June-September (JJAS)) trends. The models which were shown to have the most skill in a range of categories were HadGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MPI-ESM-MR. The biases and discrepancies in model skill for different metrics of rainfall and temperature found in this study provide a useful basis for a process-based analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble in Ethiopia.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2019-12-10
dcterms.bibliographicCitationDyer, E.; Washington, R.; Taye, Meron Teferi. 2020. Evaluating the CMIP5 [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5] ensemble in Ethiopia: creating a reduced ensemble for rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia and the Awash Basin. International Journal of Climatology, 40(6):2964-2985en
dcterms.extent2964-2985en
dcterms.issued2020-05
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherWileyen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectmodelsen
dcterms.subjectevaluationen
dcterms.subjectrainen
dcterms.subjecttemperatureen
dcterms.subjectclimatic dataen
dcterms.subjecttrendsen
dcterms.subjectobservationen
dcterms.subjectseasonalityen
dcterms.subjectsimulationen
dcterms.subjectforecastingen
dcterms.subjectriver basinsen
dcterms.subjectpoliciesen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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