Climate change impacts on African crop production

Ramirez-Villegas J, Thornton PK. 2015. Climate change impacts on African crop production. CCAFS Working Paper no. 119. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

According to the most recent IPCC report, changes in climates over the last 30 years have already reduced global agricultural production in the range 1-5 % per decade globally, with particularly negative effects for tropical cereal crops such as maize and rice (Porter et al., 2014). In addition, there is now mounting evidence suggesting that even at low (+2 ºC) levels of warming, agricultural productivity is likely to decline across the globe, but particularly across tropical areas (Challinor et al., 2014). This Working Paper provides an overview of projected climate change impacts on crop production and suitability across Africa, using a combination of literature review, models and new data analysis.