Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: The development of a pantropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision making

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cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationCentre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique Pour le Développement
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.coverage.countryNicaragua
cg.coverage.countryUganda
cg.coverage.countryVietnam
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NI
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2UG
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2VN
cg.coverage.regionCentral America
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.coverage.regionSouth-eastern Asia
cg.creator.identifierLouis Parker: 0000-0002-7474-9175
cg.creator.identifierClement Bourgoin: 0000-0003-4923-3035
cg.creator.identifierArmando Martinez-Valle: 0000-0001-9718-5520
cg.creator.identifierPeter Läderach: 0000-0001-8708-6318
cg.howPublishedFormally Published
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213641
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.issn1932-6203
cg.issue3
cg.journalPLOS One
cg.numbere0213641
cg.reviewStatusPeer Review
cg.subject.ciatCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
cg.volume14
dc.contributor.authorParker, Louis
dc.contributor.authorBourgoin, Clément
dc.contributor.authorMartínez Valle, Armando Isaac
dc.contributor.authorLäderach, Peter R.D.
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-05T20:11:25Zen
dc.date.available2019-04-05T20:11:25Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/100711
dc.titleVulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: The development of a pantropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision makingen
dcterms.abstractAs climate change continues to exert increasing pressure upon the livelihoods and agricultural sector of many developing and developed nations, a need exists to understand and prioritise at the sub national scale which areas and communities are most vulnerable. The purpose of this study is to develop a robust, rigorous and replicable methodology that is flexible to data limitations and spatially prioritizes the vulnerability of agriculture and rural livelihoods to climate change. We have applied the methodology in Vietnam, Uganda and Nicaragua, three contrasting developing countries that are particularly threatened by climate change. We conceptualize vulnerability to climate change following the widely adopted combination of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. We used Ecocrop and Maxent ecological models under a high emission climate scenario to assess the sensitivity of the main food security and cash crops to climate change. Using a participatory approach, we identified exposure to natural hazards and the main indicators of adaptive capacity, which were modelled and analysed using geographic information systems. We finally combined the components of vulnerability using equal-weighting to produce a crop specific vulnerability index and a final accumulative score. We have mapped the hotspots of climate change vulnerability and identified the underlying driving indicators. For example, in Vietnam we found the Mekong delta to be one of the vulnerable regions due to a decline in the climatic suitability of rice and maize, combined with high exposure to flooding, sea level rise and drought. However, the region is marked by a relatively high adaptive capacity due to developed infrastructure and comparatively high levels of education. The approach and information derived from the study informs public climate change policies and actions, as vulnerability assessments are the bases of any National Adaptation Plans (NAP), National Determined Contributions (NDC) and for accessing climate finance.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2019-03-27
dcterms.bibliographicCitationParker, Louis; Bourgoin, Clement; Martinez-Valle, Armando & Läderach, Peter. (2019). Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: The development of a pantropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision making. PLoS ONE, 14(3): e0213641.en
dcterms.issued2019-03
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherPublic Library of Science
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/O8GOHPen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectdecision makingen
dcterms.subjecttoma de decisionesen
dcterms.subjectvulnerabilityen
dcterms.subjectlivelihoodsen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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