Investment Plan for Solar-Based Irrigation Systems in Nigeria

This report makes the investment case for shifting irrigated smallholders in northern Nigeria from fuel pumping to Solar-Based Irrigation Systems (SBIS). Using a 579-household survey in Kebbi, Kano, and Kaduna, plus a Mixed Logit discrete-choice experiment, results are standardized to a 1-acre unit (typical SBIS command area). Rising fuel costs and climate variability are eroding the economics of conventional irrigation, while strong solar resources and shallow groundwater make SBIS feasible. The fixed SBIS package (~NGN 600,000) consistently outperforms the mobile “with cart” option (~NGN 1,000,000); the cart can reduce theft/insecurity risk, but its cost premium often lowers returns. Under profit-sharing financing assumptions, the fixed system typically yields high operating returns and a fast payback (~1.4–2.1 years), while the mobile option is usually viable only for the highest-margin uses. A tiered commercialization framework is proposed: Tier 1 (tomato, pepper) can support commercial finance, with tomatoes resilient to revenue shocks; Tier 2 (onion, rice) is viable with the fixed system only; Tier 3 (okra, wheat, maize) is financially fragile and needs concessional finance, performance-based subsidies, and stronger risk management. Recommendations focus on scaling fixed SBIS through cooperatives and small-group liability (2–3 farmers), longer tenors and low upfront payments (including Sharia-compliant options), and bundling insurance, off-taker agreements, extension support, certified installers, and spare-parts supply chains to reduce downtime and protect repayment.