India in the Driver’s Seat: The Choices Shaping Global Rice Markets

Mirzabaev, Alisher, Vikram Patil (2026). India in the Driver’s Seat: The Choices Shaping Global Rice Markets. IRRI Global Rice Market Brief Series #8, February 2026. International Rice Research Institute. 7 p.

• India’s 2025 rice exports rose to 21.8 million tons, reaffirming India as the key supplier that sets the market tone. • Indian public rice inventories are currently exceptionally high by policy benchmarks. Milled rice stocks with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) stood at 30.5 million tons on 1 January 2026, versus a buffer norm of 7.6 million tons. Using a broader definition that includes paddy converted to milled rice-equivalent, central pool rice stock was reported at 63.1 million tons. The key question hanging over global rice markets now is how India manages its large surplus. • These stocks are not merely excess. Under the National Food Security Act (NFSA), foodgrain entitlements cover about 813.5 million people and are delivered via the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). Rice allocation offtakes for 2025–26 are reported at about 40.7 million tons. • Rice stock management is therefore a policy portfolio choice. Exports, Open Market Sale Scheme (Domestic) auctions (OMSS(D)), TPDS offtake, and limited diversion to ethanol are the active channels.