Spatial variation in fertilizer prices in Sub-Saharan Africa

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centreen
cg.contributor.crpMaize
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Agency for International Developmenten
cg.contributor.donorBill & Melinda Gates Foundationen
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionSub-saharan Africa
cg.creator.identifierZhe Guo: 0000-0002-5999-4009en
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764en
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Environment and Production Technology Divisionen
cg.identifier.publicationRankBen
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1932-6203en
cg.issue1en
cg.journalPLOS ONEen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.volume15en
dc.contributor.authorBonilla Cedrez, Camilaen
dc.contributor.authorChamberlin, Jordanen
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Zheen
dc.contributor.authorHijmans, Robert J.en
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-22T12:11:11Zen
dc.date.available2024-05-22T12:11:11Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/142853
dc.titleSpatial variation in fertilizer prices in Sub-Saharan Africaen
dcterms.abstractLow crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa are associated with low fertilizer use. To better understand patterns of, and opportunities for, fertilizer use, location specific fertilizer price data may be relevant. We compiled local market price data for urea fertilizer, a source of inorganic nitrogen, in 1729 locations in eighteen countries in two regions (West and East Africa) from 2010–2018 to understand patterns in the spatial variation in fertilizer prices. The average national price was lowest in Ghana (0.80 USD kg-1), Kenya (0.97 USD kg-1), and Nigeria (0.99 USD kg-1). Urea was most expensive in three landlocked countries (Burundi: 1.51, Uganda: 1.49, and Burkina Faso: 1.49 USD kg-1). Our study uncovers considerable spatial variation in fertilizer prices within African countries. We show that in many countries this variation can be predicted for unsampled locations by fitting models of prices as a function of longitude, latitude, and additional predictor variables that capture aspects of market access, demand and environmental conditions. Predicted within-country urea price variation (as a fraction of the median price) was particularly high in Kenya (0.77–1.12), Nigeria (0.83–1.34), Senegal (0.73–1.40), Tanzania (0.90–1.29) and Uganda (0.93–1.30), but much lower in Burkina Faso (0.96–1.04), Burundi (0.95–1.05), and Togo (0.94–1.05). The correlation coefficient of the country level models was between 0.17 to 0.83 (mean 0.52) and the RMSE varies from 0.005 to 0.188 (mean 0.095). In 10 countries, predictions were at least 25% better than a null-model that assumes no spatial variation. Our work indicates new opportunities for incorporating spatial variation in prices into efforts to understand the profitability of agricultural technologies across rural areas in Sub-Saharan Africa.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.bibliographicCitationBonilla Cedrez, Camila; Chamberlin, Jordan; Guo, Zhe; and Hijmans, Robert J. 2020. Spatial variation in fertilizer prices in Sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS ONE 15(1): e0227764. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764en
dcterms.issued2020-03-01en
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen
dcterms.replaceshttps://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll5/id/7045en
dcterms.subjectspatial dataen
dcterms.subjectfertilizersen
dcterms.subjectmarket pricesen
dcterms.subjectspatial distributionen
dcterms.subjectcrop yielden
dcterms.subjectcrop productionen
dcterms.subjectmarketsen
dcterms.subjectyieldsen
dcterms.subjectpricesen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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