Harnessing biotech potato for food security and profitability in Nigeria

Potato production in Nigeria is severely constrained by late blight, particularly during the wet season, which accounts for about 82% of national output. This policy brief assesses the potential economic and social impacts of deploying late blight–resistant biotech potatoes developed by stacking three resistance genes (3R-gene) into farmer-preferred varieties (Desiree, Diamant, and Shangi). Using an ex ante economic surplus model (DREAMpy), results indicate that each 3R-gene variety could generate total net benefits of approximately NGN 343–349 billion (USD 804–820 million) over a 30-year period, equivalent to annual net benefits of NGN 11.4–11.6 billion (USD 26.8–27.3 million). About 65% of these gains accrue to consumers through more stable supply and prices, while 35% benefit farmers through higher yields and reduced fungicide costs. Baseline projections suggest that adoption of each variety could lift around 16,000–17,000 people out of poverty per year. The analysis highlights the importance of timely regulatory approval, strong seed systems, and targeted extension to fully realize the food security, income, and environmental benefits of biotech potato in Nigeria.