Climate change can generate enemy‐free space for crop‐feeding herbivores

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centre
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research institute
cg.contributor.affiliationChrysalis Consulting
cg.contributor.affiliationChina Academy of Agricultural Sciences
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Queensland
cg.contributor.affiliationFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of the Azores
cg.contributor.affiliationHelmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
cg.contributor.affiliationGerman Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research
cg.contributor.affiliationFriedrich Schiller University Jena
cg.contributor.affiliationCABI
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Institute
cg.contributor.donorFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Fund
cg.contributor.initiativeLow-Emission Food Systems
cg.contributor.programAcceleratorClimate Action
cg.creator.identifierWei Zhang: 0000-0002-2933-6275
cg.howPublishedFormally Published
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70775
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Natural Resources and Resilience Unit
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Agrifood Innovation and Resilience Unit
cg.identifier.publicationRankA Plus
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.issn1354-1013
cg.issn1365-2486
cg.issue3
cg.journalGlobal Change Biology
cg.reviewStatusPeer Review
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigation
cg.subject.sdgSDG 13 - Climate action
cg.volume32
dc.contributor.authorWyckhuys, Kris A. G.
dc.contributor.authorPozsgai, Gabor
dc.contributor.authorFinch, Elizabeth A.
dc.contributor.authorSeehausen, M. Lukas
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Wei
dc.contributor.authorGc, Yubak D.
dc.date.accessioned2026-03-17T17:09:40Z
dc.date.available2026-03-17T17:09:40Z
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/182153
dc.titleClimate change can generate enemy‐free space for crop‐feeding herbivoresen
dcterms.abstractCrop-feeding herbivores reduce the world's food output by approximately 20% and climate change (CC) is bound to deepen those losses. Endemic or introduced consumer organisms (i.e., biological control agents) naturally regulate herbivore populations and secure a quarter of crop yields, but are exceptionally susceptible to CC-related disturbances. Here, we use niche modeling for 14 globally-important herbivores (or pests) to forecast how richness of the associated biological control agents of each pest—as a proxy of service strength—may alter under a CC-driven range expansion. Results show that 57%–100% of pests are bound to lose parasitoid and predator associates. The cassava mealybug Phenacoccus manihoti may experience a 27% decline in parasitoid pressure, whereas cosmopolitan pests of cereal and horticultural crops benefit from 6% to 7% drops in predator pressure. Such ‘enemy release’ can possibly exacerbate pest-induced yield losses and threaten future harvests. Ant-pest associations change in both directions, implying that pests may either face strengthened or weakened biological control. For pests spreading towards or within food-deficit regions in the equatorial belt, parasitoid declines and increases in ant pressure are most pronounced. By exposing the fragility of biodiversity-based ecological safeguards in farmland, our work calls for urgent, integrative, and nature-friendly solutions to uphold food security under environmental change.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceAcademics
dcterms.available2026-03-12
dcterms.bibliographicCitationWyckhuys, Kris A. G.; Pozsgai, Gabor; Finch, Elizabeth A.; Seehausen, M. Lukas; Zhang, Wei; and Gc, Yubak D. 2026. Climate change can generate enemy‐free space for crop‐feeding herbivores. Global Change Biology 13(3): e70775. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70775
dcterms.extente70775
dcterms.issued2026-03
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0
dcterms.publisherWiley
dcterms.subjectclimate change
dcterms.subjectherbivores
dcterms.subjectagroecology
dcterms.subjectbiodiversity conservation
dcterms.subjectbiotic factors
dcterms.subjectintensification
dcterms.subjectinsect control
dcterms.subjectsustainable agriculture
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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