CGIAR Science Program on Climate Action

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/163089

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Development of zero-carbon smart farmhouse with M+ living lab at the Qingshan village: 2025
(Working Paper, 2025-12-31) Chen, Kevin Z.; Wang, Xinxin; Zhen, Yan; Wang, Haoren; Chen, Kaiwen
This project, based in Qingshan Village, Huanghu Town, Yuhang District, Hangzhou City, utilizes the "M+Living Lab" model to create the nation's first zero-carbon smart farmhouse model integrating living, production, office, and exhibition functions. The project aims to verify a technological path to achieve net-zero emissions under existing farmhouse conditions through "passive building technology+active energy efficiency management+renewable energy integration," thereby driving carbon accounting, low-carbon agricultural experiments, and digital governance transformation throughout the village.
A system-based framework for carbon emission and sequestration accounting at the village level: Evidence from rural China
(Working Paper, 2025-12-31) Hong, Jingjing; Wang, Xinxin; Chen, Kevin Z.
Against the backdrop of China’s “dual carbon” targets, villages represent a critical yet underexplored unit for linking national carbon neutrality goals with rural revitalization and grassroots climate governance. Existing carbon accounting studies have predominantly focused on macro-scale regions or individual sectors, often overlooking the integrated functioning of production, living, and ecological subsystems at the village level. In particular, the frequent omission of ecosystem-based carbon sinks has led to systematic biases in the assessment of rural net emissions. This study develops a system-oriented village-level carbon accounting framework grounded in systems theory, conceptualizing the village as a quasi-autonomous social–ecological system in which production, household activities, and ecological components are tightly coupled. Methodologically, the framework integrates emission factor–based accounting for multiple carbon source pathways—such as energy use, agricultural production, household consumption, and construction activities—with a systematic estimation of ecosystem carbon sinks. Key carbon sink processes, including forest biomass, bamboo stands, cropland, and soil carbon sequestration, are explicitly incorporated to capture the ecological regulation of village-level carbon balances. By constructing a closed-loop accounting structure encompassing carbon sources, carbon sinks, and net emissions, the framework provides a comprehensive representation of village-level carbon metabolism. While maintaining empirical feasibility through the use of accessible activity data and standardized emission factors, the framework is also capable of capturing indirect and upstream emission chains induced by local production and consumption activities, thereby enhancing the systemic completeness of the accounting results. An empirical application is conducted in Qingshan Village, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, based on a village-wide household survey and official administrative data for 2023. The results indicate that total annual carbon emissions amount to 14,469.05 t CO₂-eq, primarily driven by energy consumption and construction-related activities, whereas total carbon sequestration reaches 16,775.32 t CO₂-eq, largely contributed by forests, bamboo stands, and cropland ecosystems. Overall, Qingshan Village exhibits a net negative carbon balance, representing a typical case of a carbon-negative village. This study advances village-scale carbon accounting by systematically integrating carbon sources and ecosystem-based carbon sinks within a systems-theoretical framework. It provides a scientifically robust and operationally feasible basis for assessing rural carbon balances and offers methodological support for designing targeted and equitable mitigation strategies under China’s rural carbon neutrality agenda.
Adoption of low-carbon behaviors and carbon emission reduction potential among rural residents: A case of Qingshan village, China
(Working Paper, 2025-12-31) Peng, Yijing; Wang, Xinxin; Chen, Kevin Z.
Rural households constitute a crucial but understudied frontier in the decarbonization pathway in China; nevertheless, a sustained cognition-action gap still hinders the implementation of environmental awareness into behavioral adoption. This study overcomes this difficulty by combining the Attitude-Behavior-Context (ABC) model and scenario-based emission simulation. Drawing on survey data from 739 households in Qingshan Village, a village designated as a provincial pilot for low-carbon development in Zhejiang Province, this study examined the relationship between village governance perception and digital literacy and how they influence low-carbon behaviors. The results identify that the governance perception does not have a direct effect on behavior; instead, its effect goes through the mediation of the low-carbon awareness. Digital literacy is a critical moderator that has been found to amplify the conversion of governance signals into environmental cognition. Heterogeneity analysis shows a key strategic difference: the link between governance-cognition-behavior is statistically significant only for behaviors that are efficiency-oriented, requiring considerable investments, not for low-cost habitual ones. Scenario simulations also reveal a mismatch in adoption and the potential emission reductions that might have been achieved, with a high adoption of habitual behavior with limited emission reduction potential and low levels of adoption of efficiency-based behaviors with high emission reduction potential in dietary transition and energy substitution. Routine practices spread through social norms, but high-impact efficiency behaviors require trustworthy governance and digital empowerment. The research attests to the need for differentiated policy portfolios that go beyond awareness campaigns for all and aim at more specific interventions on cognitive and structural factors that affect high-potential rural low-carbon transitions, to provide a precise leverage point to improve the climate effectiveness of rural environmental programmes.
Scoping report for establishing a living lab for locally led climate adaptation in Nigeria: Assessing stakeholder demand, interests, and existing participatory locally led climate actions
(Report, 2025-09) Balana, Bedru; Moses, Yohanna; Muhammad, Hamza; Zhang, Wei
The scoping report was based on several virtual meetings and an in-person meeting (in September 2025) between IFPRI and the Environmental Care Foundation (ECF) in Nigeria on the potential partnership on establishing and implementing locally lead climate adaptation (LLCA) living lab (LL) in northeast Nigeria, Adamawa state. Based on these discussions and ECF’s on-going climate related activities in Adamawa, IFPRI and ECF jointly developed a concept note (CN) that describes the demand, interests, and capacities of local stakeholders in general and ECF in particular. ECF shows a strong interest in hosting and leading LLCA activities, and they have a well-established connection with local actors including government, nongovernment development partners, farmers, and other local actors in climate related issues in Adamawa. This document presents a background on climate change in Nigeria, summary of the scoping assessment for LL, objectives, ECF’s capacity and experience, and thematic areas on LLCA under the LL proposed for implementation and to be facilitated by ECF as part of the CGIAR Climate Action Science Program, AoW3 activities in Nigeria.
Exploration of low-carbon tea garden development path in Qingshan Village under the "dual carbon" goal
(Working Paper, 2025-12) Yan, Zhen; Wang, Zhixin; Chen, Kevin Z.
Against the backdrop of China’s "dual carbon" goals and agricultural green transformation, low-carbon development has become crucial for the high-quality growth of the tea industry. This study explores a feasible low-carbon tea garden development path for Qingshan Village by integrating theoretical research, technical paths, and domestic typical cases. First, the study summarizes core low-carbon technologies for tea gardens, covering ecological planting, chemical input reduction, soil carbon sequestration, intelligent management, green processing, and eco-certification. It then extracts experiences from four typical regions: Anxi’s digital intelligence empowerment, Anji’s ecological integration and tea-tourism linkage, Puer’s new energy substitution, and Laoshan’s low-cost ecological circulation. Based on local conditions, a phased plan is proposed: in the short term, low-cost pilot projects will be implemented to form replicable experience; in the long term, full-region promotion of low-carbon technologies will be achieved, alongside the construction of an entire industrial chain system integrating intelligent management, green processing, brand certification, and carbon sink trading. This study provides practical references for the green low-carbon transformation of rural characteristic industries, verifying that the phased promotion model effectively balances ecological, economic, and social benefits.
Policy blind spots leave ~2 million displaced without protection in Burkina Faso
(Infographic, 2025) Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
What happens when ~2 million people are forced to move, but the policies meant to support them don’t speak to each other? CGIAR Climate Security researchers reviewed 40+ Burkinabé national policies and international strategies to find out. The picture that emerged is familiar: sectors working in silos while people face interconnected crises. ⏩ Mobility is framed as a security threat, ignoring pastoralism & migration as vital adaptation strategies. ⏩ Women & girls remain invisible in protection frameworks. ⏩ Ethnic violence, a major driver of displacement, is almost absent from policy. The result is responses that miss the people who need them most. This research provides a framework for better policy coordination and shows why integration matters when displacement happens at scale.
Livelihood corporation for climate resilience: Lessons from refugee host communities in Jordan
(Infographic, 2025) Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Jordan hosts over 3 million refugees while facing one of the harshest water scarcities in the world. Climate shocks are deepening. Resources are strained. And humanitarian aid often stops at the emergency phase. Without long-term livelihood support, both refugees and host communities risk getting trapped in cycles of dependency and tension. CGIAR Climate Security research highlights a quieter story unfolding in Jordan’s farming regions: how cooperation, not competition, can emerge when adaptation is local, inclusive, and sustained.
Can climate adaptation reduce conflict? What a decade of work in Jirapa, Ghana reveals about linking adaptation to stability
(Infographic, 2025) Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Climate adaptation can build peace, but only if we design for it. In Jirapa, Ghana between 2012–2021, a Climate Smart Village paired climate adaptation with conflict-sensitive development. Farmers helped co-design a bundle of improved seeds, weather advisories, agroforestry, market links, and microfinance, tackling both climate stress and social divides. When researchers later applied the CGIAR Climate Security Sensitivity Tool (CSST), they found stronger resilience and higher peace scores than in nearby villages, especially during Ghana’s 2022 economic crisis when fertilizer prices tripled. The lesson? Ignoring power dynamics can turn adaptation into maladaptation. Tools like the CSST help teams spot conflict risks early and design for peace from the start.
Advancing climate justice: What makes adaptation policies inclusive in practice, not just on paper?
(Infographic, 2025) Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Cruel irony: The people least responsible for climate change are the ones suffering the most. ➡️Smallholder farmers watching their fields dry up. ➡️Rural women walking farther each day for food and water. ➡️Whole communities flooded, displaced, or left behind. Yet climate action still too often overlooks them. We can’t afford climate solutions that are technically sound but socially fragile. CGIAR Climate Security is working to reshape climate action so that it’s fair, inclusive, and sensitive to conflict. That means putting climate justice at the core, and not as an afterthought. We focus on three pillars to make that happen: ➡️ Policy & Legislative Frameworks ➡️ Finance ➡️ Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings
Climate, peace and security in Kenya
(Infographic, 2025) Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Communities across Kenya are navigating the dual threats of climate hazards and socio-political tensions. Severe droughts and floods, resource conflicts and evolving community roles - the impacts are far-reaching, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Amidst these challenges, promising changes are taking root. Kenya's decentralized governance has empowered local communities, promoting inclusive decision-making and adaptive strategies to build resilience. This report, developed with insights from the CGIAR Climate Security Observatory examines how Kenya can guide climate action to promote cooperative resource management and reduce conflict risks.
CGIAR Climate Security Observatory (CSO) Impact.
(Infographic, 2025) Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
🚨MYTH: Climate change has nothing to do with conflict. ✅TRUTH: Climate stress can deepen fragility, fuel displacement, and worsen tensions. The CGIAR Climate Security Observatory (CSO) helps governments and organizations anticipate where climate threats may escalate into insecurity, so they can act before tensions rise. 3,400+ users from 120+ countries have already accessed the CSO, making it one of the go-to platforms for climate-security insight and foresight.
Can climate-smart agriculture projects be leveraged for peacebuilding? Lessons from Kaffrine, Senegal
(Infographic, 2025-09) Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Climate-smart agriculture can boost harvests, but can it also spark community tensions? In Kaffrine, Senegal, 90% of farmers saw higher yields under the Climate-Smart Village model. Yet youths felt sidelined, smallholders feared resource capture, and 92% demanded stronger institutions. A new Guidance Note from CGIAR Climate Security explores these dynamics and introduces the CSV+ approach, which blends climate innovation with conflict sensitivity. Climate adaptation must be conflict-sensitive, or we risk trading resilience for resentment.
Building climate-resilient agriculture for refugees and host communities in Jordan
(Blog Post, 2025) Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Jordan hosts one of the highest refugee populations per capita. Yet Syrian farmers struggle to access loans, land, and licenses. How can climate-smart solutions help? The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration, at the request of the World Food Programme (WFP), explored explored financing options to support climate-resilient farming, boosting food security & social cohesion.
Child malnutrition study
(Infographic, 2025) Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Child malnutrition is an early warning signal of instability. Recent research in Nigeria by CGIAR Climate Security shows that tracking rates of wasting can help predict where social tensions could erupt next. The researchers discovered that rising temperatures don’t trigger violence overnight. Instead, they quietly erode food systems until children begin to waste away and that’s when communities start to fracture.
No escape II: The way forward. Bringing climate solutions to the frontlines of conflict and displacement
(Report, 2025-11-01) United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Africa Climate Mobility Academy (ACMA) 1 year anniversary 2025
(Infographic, 2025) Bioversity International And International Center For Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
10 young African scholars arrived with ideas, questions, and a shared goal: to understand how climate shapes human movement across the continent. Through intensive workshops, 800+ mentorship hours, and field visits in Busia County, Kenya, these fellows turned ideas into actionable insights for policy. Over the last year, 9 fellows have submitted to peer-reviewed journals, and 75% remain active in our growing alumni network. By investing in mentorship and local institutions, CGIAR Climate Security and partners are addressing global inequalities in who produces climate impact research and whose voices shape solutions.
Climate resilience in displacement: Examining UNHCR’s SuLMER intervention in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh
(Report, 2025-11-01) Vaselli, Alessandra; Khalid, Shahab; Savelli, Adam; Craparo, Alessandro; Basel, Ashleigh; Minoarivelo, Henintsoa Onivola; Tsoka, Jonathan; Dao, Hoa; Ma, Suza; Nipul, Barua; Hoque, Ehsanul; Sarma, Santanu; Keogh, Sean; Mastrorillo, Marina; Pacillo, Grazia; Laderach, Peter
This Policy Brief was prepared for presentation at COP 30 in Belém, Brazil. For a fuller accounting of the research, please see the Summary Guidance Note or Full Report.
Reporte del Proceso de Consulta y Validación del Plan Estratégico Nacional (PEN) y Plan de Acción Conexo (PAC) del Marco Nacional de Servicios Climáticos (MNSC).
(Report, 2025-12) Dumazert, Patrick; Martinez, Karen; Navarro, Carlos
This report synthesizes the outcomes of the national consultation and validation process for the Strategic Plan and the Associated Action Plan of Guatemala’s National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS). Conducted in November 2025 through a remote and differentiated process, the consultation engaged 20 key national institutions to enhance the coherence, feasibility, and impact of the proposed strategic instruments. The results confirm the relevance of five priority areas: interoperability, governance, infrastructure, communication, and early warning systems as critical enablers for strengthening climate services and supporting evidence-based decision-making. A strong consensus emerged around adopting a preparatory implementation approach, prioritizing low-cost, high-impact actions to generate early value and enable future scaling. Key recommendations emphasize strengthening financial sustainability, consolidating inter-institutional governance, and reinforcing user-centered approaches to maximize development outcomes. The findings of this report will inform you of the finalization of the Strategic Plan and Action Plan and support their validation by key NFCS stakeholders.
Preferences for Bundled Index-Based Livestock Insurance: Evidence From Northern Kenya
(Journal Article, 2026-01-01) Shikuku, Kelvin Mashisia; Ochenje, Ibrahim; Osiemo, Jamleck; Banerjee, Rupsha R.; DuttaGupta, Tanaya; Khalai, Duncan
Considerable attention has been placed on bundled index insurance to enhance climate resilience, address multiple risks simultaneously, and increase the adoption of agricultural technologies. We conducted an endow-and-exchange choice experiment with 1,828 female and male livestock keepers in northern Kenya to elicit their preferences for bundled index-based livestock insurance (IBLI). We measured relative willingness to pay (WTP) as the maximum amount of money that an individual is willing to pay to switch from one bundle to another. We found that livestock keepers were willing to pay 19% – 33%, 100% – 153%, and 148% – 232% more for IBLI + animal nutrition, IBLI + animal health, and IBLI + flexible package, respectively, relative to IBLI + animal breed. Relative to the average WTP to switch from other bundles to IBLI + animal breed, women had 36% – 45%, 54% – 64%, and 76% – 84% higher WTP than men for IBLI + animal nutrition, IBLI + animal health, and IBLI + flexible package, respectively. Providing information about bundled products and seasonal vegetation forecasts reduced the relative WTP for IBLI + animal nutrition. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the differential preferences of women and men when designing and promoting bundled IBLI products.
A living lab approach to locally led climate action
(Presentation, 2025) Nehring, Ryan; Zhang, Wei; Hettiarachchi, Upeksha; Falk, Thomas; Balana, Bedru

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