CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/128444

Part of the CGIAR Action Area on Systems Transformation

https://www.cgiar.org/initiative/fragility-conflict-and-migration

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HER+ Sustainable Land Management Trial in Ethiopia: Baseline Survey
(Dataset, 2025-04-07) International Food Policy Research Institute
The HER+ Sustainable Land Management Study is a randomized controlled trial evaluating a bundled intervention that provides training and inputs (including 4-6 fruit tree seedlings, vegetable seeds, and tools) to encourage extremely poor rural Ethiopian households to adopt three complementary sustainable land management (SLM) practices: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The baseline survey was conducted in May-June 2023, followed by the intervention, with the endline study completed in May-June 2024. The study covers 95 sub-districts, with 20 households randomly selected in each sub-district from among beneficiaries of the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) who met pre-specified eligibility criteria, resulting in a total sample of 1,900 households. The data presented here is from the baseline survey.
Integrated and enhanced dataset on food security and household coping strategies of Chad (2018-2023)
(Dataset, 2025-02-18) International Food Policy Research Institute
This dataset integrates and standardizes multiple cross-sectional household food security surveys conducted twice a year to support the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa. The surveys are carried out in two waves each year: First wave: Conducted before the start of the lean season (around February-March) Second wave: Conducted at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period (around September-October) These large-scale surveys are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level and capture data on the access and stability dimensions of food security. Key indicators include: -Food Consumption Score (FCS); -Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS); -Coping behaviors. Additionally, this dataset is further augmented with information on several covariate shocks that took place in each second-level administrative area in the period between two subsequent surveys. The different covariate shocks added to the dataset relate to five shock domains: -Conflict and political violence; -Food price anomalies; -Long-term climate hazards; -Rainy season performance; -Extreme weather events. This comprehensive dataset provides valuable insights into food security and household coping strategies in Chad, enriched with data on various shocks impacting food security.
Integrated and enhanced dataset on food security and household coping strategies of Mali (2018-2023)
(Dataset, 2025-02-18) International Food Policy Research Institute
This dataset integrates and standardizes multiple cross-sectional household food security surveys conducted twice a year to support the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa. The surveys are carried out in two waves each year: First wave: Conducted before the start of the lean season (around February-March) Second wave: Conducted at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period (around September-October) These large-scale surveys are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level and capture data on the access and stability dimensions of food security. Key indicators include: -Food Consumption Score (FCS); -Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS); -Coping behaviors. Additionally, this dataset is further augmented with information on several covariate shocks that took place in each second-level administrative area in the period between two subsequent surveys. The different covariate shocks added to the dataset relate to five shock domains: -Conflict and political violence; -Food price anomalies; -Long-term climate hazards; -Rainy season performance; -Extreme weather events. This comprehensive dataset provides valuable insights into food security and household coping strategies in Mali, enriched with data on various shocks impacting food security.
Integrated and enhanced dataset on food security and household coping strategies of Niger (2018-2023)
(Dataset, 2025-02-18) International Food Policy Research Institute
This dataset integrates and standardizes multiple cross-sectional household food security surveys conducted twice a year to support the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa. The surveys are carried out in two waves each year: First wave: Conducted before the start of the lean season (around February-March); Second wave: Conducted at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period (around September-October) These large-scale surveys are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level and capture data on the access and stability dimensions of food security. Key indicators include: -Food Consumption Score (FCS); -Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS); -Coping behaviors. Additionally, this dataset is further augmented with information on several covariate shocks that took place in each second-level administrative area in the period between two subsequent surveys. The different covariate shocks added to the dataset relate to five shock domains: -Conflict and political violence; -Food price anomalies; -Long-term climate hazards; -Rainy season performance; -Extreme weather events. This comprehensive dataset provides valuable insights into food security and household coping strategies in Niger, enriched with data on various shocks impacting food security.
Integrated and enhanced dataset on food security and household coping strategies of Burkina Faso (2018-2023)
(Dataset, 2025-02-18) International Food Policy Research Institute
This dataset integrates and standardizes multiple cross-sectional household food security surveys conducted twice a year to support the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa. The surveys are carried out in two waves each year: First wave: Conducted before the start of the lean season (around February-March) Second wave: Conducted at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period (around September-October) These large-scale surveys are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level and capture data on the access and stability dimensions of food security. Key indicators include: Food Consumption Score (FCS); Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS); Coping behaviors. Additionally, this dataset is further augmented with information on several covariate shocks that took place in each second-level administrative area in the period between two subsequent surveys. The different covariate shocks added to the dataset relate to five shock domains: Conflict and political violence; Food price anomalies; Long-term climate hazards; Rainy season performance; Extreme weather events. This comprehensive dataset provides valuable insights into food security and household coping strategies in Burkina Faso, enriched with data on various shocks impacting food security.
Gender and food security: How displacement can disrupt traditional roles in agriculture-dependent communities
(Journal Item, 2025-09-17) Maviza, Gracsious; Takaindisa, Joyce; Maphosa, Mandlendlenkosi; Synnestvedt, Thea
Mud, memories, and meaning: Investigating climate security in Southwestern Zimbabwe
(Blog Post, 2025-09-16) Maviza, Gracsious; Taiwo, Ibukun
This study examines climate security challenges in southwestern Zimbabwe's Tsholotsho district, where communities continue to grapple with the lasting impacts of Cyclones Dineo (2017) and Idai (2019), compounded by severe drought in 2024. Researchers from the CGIAR Climate Security Southern Africa Hub conducted immersive fieldwork in late 2024, living alongside local communities in wards 5, 6, 8, and 10 to understand how climate stresses interact with social tensions and resource conflicts. The research reveals that resource scarcity extends beyond simple availability to encompass daily negotiations shaped by structural inequities, gender dynamics, ethnicity, and displacement status. A critical incident at Gariya Dam, where water competition between Kalanga and San community members escalated to violence, illustrates how climate stress can trigger immediate security risks at local resource access points. Key findings emphasize two critical lessons: first, that climate adaptation strategies must integrate conflict-sensitive water governance mechanisms involving all stakeholders, including marginalized groups like the San community; and second, that early warning systems require robust last-mile delivery of basic services to prevent small disputes from escalating into broader security threats. The study demonstrates the importance of immersive, community-embedded research methodologies that build trust and reveal overlooked pressure points in climate-affected communities. These insights inform more effective policy approaches that integrate water governance, livelihood support, and basic services to enhance both climate resilience and social stability across Southern Africa.
Climate, security, and the study of religion in Africa: Insights from Northern Mozambique
(Journal Article, 2025-04-28) Tarusarira, Joram; Maviza, Gracsious
How the security risks associated with climate change, such as social instability and conflicts over dwindling resources, impact the study of religion in Africa has received limited attention from scholars of African religions, despite the need to determine how these impacts influence how religion is conceptualized. However, climate-related security risks intersect with religious beliefs and practices. This article draws on participatory methodologies and an ethnographic study of the security risks stemming from climate change in northern Mozambique. It demonstrates that the emergence of security challenges related to climate change provides religious studies with new data and, therefore, new challenges in rethinking the meaning of African religions. It also shows the significance of attributing religion to climate disasters among religious communities, exposes the epistemological assumptions and conflicts over the role of religion in social challenges, and demonstrates the transcendence of religious differences in times of widespread social crises. The article thus contributes to setting the stage for future studies that aim to understand how climate-driven vulnerabilities change the conception of and engagement with religion in Africa.
Religio-cultural determinants of reactions to climate change and related security risks in traditional religious communities in Northern Mozambique
(Journal Article, 2025-07-08) Tarusarira, Joram; Maviza, Gracsious; Caroli, Giulia
This article examines how religio-cultural values influence the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of local communities in the face of climate-change-induced security risks through a case study of vulnerable communities in northern Mozambique. These risks encompass various forms of suffering, displacement, and violence related to climatic stressors. While traditional approaches to climate change impacts often prioritize economic and technological solutions, this study argues for the inclusion of religio-cultural values in climate security discourse. Using a values-based analytical framework and ethnographic and participatory research methods, the article investigates how religio-cultural values shape community responses to climate change and related security risks in two communities in Nampula District. The research highlights that techno-scientific interventions, when not aligned with local values, can exacerbate conflicts and undermine the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies. It further demonstrates the potential for peace and stability that can be achieved by integrating local religio-cultural values into climate policies and practices
Women's vulnerabilities to climate insecurity and violence: Household-level evidence from Bangladesh
(Journal Article, 2025-09) Suza, Ma; Warner, Jeroen; Pacillo, Grazia; Läderach, Peter; van Dijk, Han
This study investigates the often-overlooked interpersonal conflicts within the climate and security nexus, focusing on how climate impact exacerbates women's security risks on Hatiya Island, Bangladesh. While climate security literature typically examines group-level conflicts, such as between farmers and pastoralists or between ethnic groups, this study shifts the focus to intra- and inter-household dynamics, exploring conflicts experienced by women with spouses, family members, and neighbors. Using life history interviews, the study reveals how climate vulnerabilities, economic hardship, and entrenched gender norms heighten tensions, leading to conflicts both within households and among neighboring women in a rural patriarchal social context. The findings suggest that climate-induced economic challenges intensify domestic tensions while land scarcity from coastal erosion and resource degradation fuels disputes among neighboring women. The paper underscores addressing the deep-rooted social norms and institutionalized gender inequalities that deepen women's vulnerabilities to climate impacts in conservative societies like those found in Bangladesh and across large parts of the global South to protect them from violence.
How Research Drives Climate, Peace and Humanitarian Outcomes: Lessons learned from harvesting, producing, and reflecting on outcome stories from CGIAR Climate Security research at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT
(Report, 2025-08-18) Gadeberg, Marianne; Pacillo, Grazia; Läderach, Peter R.D.
CGIAR's Climate Security team developed a methodology for documenting research outcomes through story formats, serving as a strategic tool for reflection and learning. The team achieved 12 outcomes in 2023-2024, from informing Kenya's National Climate Change Action Plan to enabling UNHCR's call to protect 90 million climate-vulnerable people. Key findings reveal different perspectives on outcome enablers: partners prioritized evidence, data, and research expertise, while researchers identified co-designing and co-implementing research as most crucial. This suggests that collaborative approaches help partners recognize the value of scientific evidence. Demand-driven research produces better outcomes, though they may take years to materialize. Major challenges include insufficient time for relationship building, trade-offs between breadth and depth of engagement, and funding constraints. The outcome story process helps link research outputs to outcomes, making trajectories clearer for planning and prioritization while building the team's reputation as a credible climate security organization.
Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions
(Brief, 2025-07-01) Mastrorillo, Marina; Villa, Victor; Belli, Anna; Pacillo, Grazia
Climate change is a growing driver of insecurity, displacement, and vulnerability in fragile and conflict-affected regions (Bellemare, 2015; Collier, 2008; Freeman, 2017; Schlenker & Lobell, 2010), disproportionately affecting poor, agriculture-dependent communities, displaced populations, and their hosts (Läderach et al., 2021; UNHCR, 2024). By 2040, the number of countries facing extreme climate-related hazards is projected to rise from three to 65, most of which host displaced people (Craparo et al., forthcoming). This policy brief summarizes econometric findings from six econometric studies in Nigeria, Kenya, Jordan, Mali, Ethiopia, and the Horn of Africa. Using datasets such as DHS, IOM’s DTM, and UNHCR surveys, combined with climate, price, and conflict data, the studies examine links between climate variability, mobility, malnutrition, and resilience. Methods include Structural Equation Modeling, Difference-in-Differences, Propensity Score Matching, and spatial techniques. The findings highlight the urgency of integrated, evidence-based responses to climate risks in fragile settings.
Guidance note for practitioners leveraging climate-smart villages for peace: Insights from a bundle of interventions in Senegal
(Report, 2025-07-17) Ramos, Cristina; Sarzana, Carolina; Renkamp, Theresa M; Cisse, Sokhna Ramatoulaye
This guidance note introduces the concept of the Peace-Positive Climate-Smart Village (CSV+), a model that integrates conflict sensitivity and peace-positive social inclusion into climate adaptation programming. Drawing on evidence from a case study in Kaffrine, Senegal, we explore how CSVs can be designed and implemented to be both conflict-sensitive and peace-positive. We present a set of actionable guidelines to transition from the current CSV model to a CSV+ approach.
HER+ Sustainable Land Management Trial in Ethiopia: Endline Survey
(Dataset, 2025-04-07) International Food Policy Research Institute
The HER+ Sustainable Land Management Study is a randomized controlled trial evaluating a bundled intervention that provides training and inputs (including 4-6 fruit tree seedlings, vegetable seeds, and tools) to encourage extremely poor rural Ethiopian households to adopt three complementary sustainable land management (SLM) practices: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The baseline survey was conducted in May-June 2023, followed by the intervention, with the endline study completed in May-June 2024. The study covers 95 sub-districts, with 20 households randomly selected in each sub-district from among beneficiaries of the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) who met pre-specified eligibility criteria, resulting in a total sample of 1,900 households. The data presented here is from the endline survey.
Double burden or Newfound freedom? Women’s empowerment amid large-scale male labor migration from rural Tajikistan
(Working Paper, 2025-07-09) Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; Teirlinck, Charlotte
Labor migration is generally motivated by the prospect of higher earnings abroad, and many migrants support their left-behind household members through remittances. Migrants’ long-term absence from home may, however, also affect intra-household dynamics among those remaining behind. Relying on primary qualitative data as well as quantitative data from 938 married women, we analyze empowerment impacts of migration on women in rural southern Tajikistan. Tajikistan is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world. A large share of young men migrates internationally, leaving behind – and often supporting – a multi-generational household. Yet, strong social norms limit the decision-making power and mobility of women, particularly of young women. Whereas senior women report noticeable differences when their spouses migrate, this is far less so for young women who live with their parents-in-law. Our study demonstrates that accounting for a respondent’s position within the household is key to understanding empowerment outcomes of its members.
Measuring conflict and political violence using ACLED Data – practical guidelines
(Presentation, 2025-06-30) Marivoet, Wim; Hema, Aboubacar
Effect of adding milk to a micronutrient fortified high-energy biscuit school feeding programme in Yemen: A cluster-randomised controlled trial
(Journal Article, 2025-10) Bliznashka, Lilia; Michail, Monica George; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Gelli, Aulo; Hamid Hossam Al-Qadi, Ahmed Abdel; Saif Al-Ariqi, Munir Hassan; Hanash Qasim, Wajdan Hanash; Qawi Al-Athouri, Saeed Abdul; Hamid Ahmed Abdullah, Majed Abdel; Ali Naji Iskandar, Samia Majed; Hamoud Al-Battah, Nazma Saleh; Hamid Mansour, Salah Fazaa; Mohammed Al-Saadi, Samar Saeed; Goel, Mayank; ElHelbawy, Sherif; Rahman Qasem, Adeeb Abdul; Bahader, Hussein; Al-Haj, Waleed Mohammed; Al-Qasus, Adnan Yahya; Ohiarlaithe, Micheal; Suliman, Hala; Ghimire, Pramila; AlSabahi, Mohammed; AlBasha, Muna; Alameri, Abdulhafeed; Akther, Shahida; Qahtani, Fadhl Abdullah; Basaleem, Mohammed; Hassan, Mustafa; Bawazir, Samah
Background Two billion children globally are estimated to live in conflict-affected areas. School feeding programmes (SFPs) are a widely implemented safety net that supports children during and after conflict. Objective We evaluated the effectiveness of providing milk alongside a high energy biscuits (HEBs) SFP in Yemen on children’s and caregivers’ outcomes. Methods We implemented a two-arm longitudinal cluster-randomised controlled trial from December 2023 to May 2024. 42 schools in Al Mukha district were randomly assigned (1:1) to: control, where children received HEBs (2 packets (100 grams) daily), or milk, where children received HEBs plus a 120 ml carton of ultra-high temperature milk. Children aged 6-18 years were randomly selected for enrolment. The primary outcomes were children’s dietary diversity and milk consumption. Secondary outcomes were children’s cognition, learning, attendance, nutritional status, and health. Tertiary outcomes were child and caregiver mental health, and household food security. We conducted intent-to-treat analysis using linear mixed effects models accounting for clustering. Results 1,299 children were enrolled. After five months, the intervention increased milk consumption, but had no effect on dietary diversity. Children’s cognition [mean difference (MD) 1.00 (95% CI 0.40, 1.61)], literacy [1.14 (0.36, 1.92)], and numeracy [1.06 (0.46, 1.67)] scores improved. Cough symptoms declined: -0.12 (-0.2, -0.03). There were no changes in school attendance or nutritional status. The intervention reduced conduct problems in children [-0.52 (-0.97, -0.08)], severe anxiety in caregivers [-0.03 (-0.06, -0.001)], and household severe food insecurity [-0.09 (-0.17, -0.001)]. Conclusions Adding a daily milk drink to an HEB SFP in Yemen resulted in numerous benefits for children and their families. Hybrid models to incrementally improve meal quality are feasible, acceptable, and lead to meaningful impacts. More research is needed on medium- and long-term benefits.
Gender dynamics within food systems in displacement contexts: Experiences from displaced populations in Nampula, Mozambique
(Journal Article, 2025-06-11) Synnestvedt, Thea; Maviza, Gracsious; Maphosa, Mandlenkosi
In Nampula province, Mozambique, internally displaced and refugee communities live in settlements situated at the outskirts of Nampula city. This paper explores the intersection of gender and food systems in displacement contexts by focusing on the experiences of displaced populations and examining how displacement exacerbates existing gender inequalities and shapes access to food resources and livelihoods. It delves deeper into the barriers and opportunities men and women face in orienting themselves within food systems in displacement contexts. A participatory rural appraisal methodology, disaggregated by gender, was implemented in displaced communities in Nampula. The gendered analysis found that displacement dynamics affected food systems, where gender dynamics play a central role in determining resilience capacities. The findings of this study contribute to the scholarship on the nexus between climate security, food security and gender, bringing internally displaced and refugee communities into the fore of food system discussions.
How are climate, security, and human mobility dynamics interrelated in Pakistan?
(Working Paper, 2025-04-21) Khalid, Shahab; Savelli, Adam; Vaselli, Alessandra; Carneiro, Bia; Pacillo, Grazia; Laderach, Peter
Pakistan faces a complex and interlinked set of challenges at the intersection of climate change, conflict, and mobility, which collectively exacerbate human insecurity and state fragility. This paper identifies three key pathways through which these drivers interact, often in non-linear and overlapping ways. The first pathway illustrates how climate-induced disruptions to land, water, and food systems—especially in the Indus Basin—intensify livelihood loss and social tensions, increasing the likelihood of conflict and displacement. The second pathway explores how climate- and conflict-induced displacement, when poorly managed, can overwhelm state capacity, deepen social grievances, and trigger secondary conflict in both origin and destination areas. The third examines how climate hazards and displacement can aggravate ongoing conflicts, weaken peacebuilding processes, and fuel recruitment by armed groups. The analysis underscores the urgent need for integrated, context-sensitive approaches to climate resilience, displacement, and peacebuilding in Pakistan by drawing on examples across Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The unequal effects of resettlement in Coastal Regions: An intersectional vulnerability analysis of resettled fisher communities in Saint Louis, Senegal
(Journal Article, 2025-06-01) Renkamp, Theresa Marie; Reine, Hane Marie; Jaquet, Stéphanie; Medina, Leonardo; Bonatti, Michelle; Sieber, Stefan
The coast of West Africa is particularly affected by coastal erosion and inundation as a result of sea-level rise. Managed resettlement has emerged as a crucial adaptation strategy for vulnerable coastal communities. However, the retreat of fisher communities and unequal resettlement outcomes in the Global South remain under-researched. This study seeks to examine how the vulnerability of various groups within fisher communities has evolved following their resettlement inland. Given the highly gendered division of labour in fishery-based livelihoods – and its effects on intra-household and community power relations – a contextually grounded vulnerability analysis must consider not only livelihood provision but also reproductive labour and structural causes of vulnerability. For this, the study applies a framework informed by feminist political ecology and intersectionality. A comparative case study analysis of resettled fisherfolks in Saint Louis, Senegal, was conducted through a mixed method approach, including a quantitative survey (n = 115), focus group discussions, and participatory mapping exercises. An intersectional analysis was conducted across social groups defined by location, gender, age, marital status, wives’ position, and household status. An increase in vulnerability was observed followingresettlement due to everyday struggles in providing livelihood, precarious living conditions affecting social reproductive work, and exposure to gender-based violence and criminality within the resettlement. As the adaptive capacity of certain groups, including young unmarried individuals and women, was especially diminished due to social isolation, limited agency and work opportunities, the resettlement increased marginalisation. Overall, the study shows that mismanagement of resettlement projects can lead to maladaptation. A successful resettlement necessitates a balanced, context-specific approach, combining immediate recovery efforts with strategic, long-term planning, and acknowledging communities' livelihood traditions as well as intersectional vulnerabilities.

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