CGIAR Initiative on Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/117890

Part of the CGIAR Action Area on Resilient Agrifood Systems

Primary CGIAR impact area: Climate adaptation and mitigation

https://www.cgiar.org/initiative/10-from-fragility-to-resilience-in-central-and-west-asia-and-north-africa-f2r-cwana-transforming-responses-to-drought-and-climate-variability/

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Political Economy of the Wheat Sector in Egypt: Seed Systems, Varietal Adoption, and Impacts
(Book, 2024-12-31) Bishaw, Zewdie; Yigezu, Yigezu; Azab Moustafa, Moustafa
Wheat has been an important food staple in Egypt from time immemorial and remains one of the most (if not the single most) important food security crops in the country. Currently, wheat provides one-third (35 percent) of the typical Egyptian’s total daily calorie intake. On average, the crop represents about 10 percent of the total value of agricultural production and about 20 percent of all agricultural imports, which depicts the country’s insurmountable food security challenge. Over the last six decades, the wheat sector in Egypt has exhibited an increasing trend from 0.58 million ha with a productivity of 2.5 tons ha-1 and production of 1.44 million tons in 1961 to a high of 1.39 million ha, a productivity of 6.9 tons ha-1, and total production of 9.84 million tons in 2021. Despite these significant achievements, Egypt remains number one globally in terms of the volume and value of its wheat imports. The main drivers of the country’s increasing wheat dependency are rapid population growth, increased per-capita consumption, and other alternative uses of wheat. Cognizant of these facts, over the years, debate on Egyptian agrifood systems revolved around ‘wheat self-sufficiency’. Anchored on three major pillars, several strategies have been developed for reducing dependency on imports of wheat: (i) expansion of area under wheat production; (ii) increased productivity per unit area through the generation and dissemination of new wheat varieties and associated technologies and innovations; and iii) reduction of demand for wheat by encouraging dietary diversification and replacing wheat with alternative grains in bread production. The Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy Towards 2030 aspired to attain a wheat self-sufficiency level of 80.8 percent (i.e., wheat production of 15.1 million tons) by increasing wheat area to 1.76 million ha and productivity to 8.57 tons ha-1. Wheat self-sufficiency is expected to continue being the driving force shaping the future of wheat in Egypt. Against the backdrop of limited natural resources and climate change, it is imperative for the country to also explore alternative options to achieving self-sufficiency in wheat.
Sand and Dust Storms in Uzbekistan: Atmospheric Modeling for Understanding Impacts and Mitigation
(Internal Document, 2024-11-30) Akramkhanov, Akmal; Haddad, Mira; Patlakas, Platon; Umarov, Sherzod; Nurbekov, Aziz; Yazici, Ekrem
This report investigates the challenges posed by sand and dust storms (SDS) in Uzbekistan and explores mitigation strategies using an atmospheric modeling approach.
Ўзбекистондаги қум ва чанг бўронлари: таъсирини англаш ва унинг оқибатларини юмшатиш учун атмосферани моделлаштириш
(Internal Document, 2024-11-30) Akramkhanov, Akmal; Haddad, Mira; Patlakas, Platon; Umarov, Sherzod; Nurbekov, Aziz; Yazici, Ekrem
Ушбу ҳисобот Ўзбекистонда қум ва чанг бўронлари (ҚЧБ) келтириб чиқарадиган муаммоларни ўрганади ва атмосферани моделлаштириш ёндашувидан фойда ланган ҳолда уларни юмшатиш стратегияларини кўриб чиқади
Oil, Gas, and Mineral Industry Role in Rangeland Restoration: A systematic review
(Conference Paper) Dhehibi, Boubaker; Souissi, Asma; Baker, A. Derek; Flintan, Fiona; Wane, Abdrahmane; S, Burkat
The rapid expansion of unconventional oil and gas development in the oil-gas-mineral (OGM) states has been controversial because of numerous environmental and social impacts. OGM industries have existed on rangelands for many years with various impacts depending upon the scope of operations and level of professional management (Walsh and Rose 2022; Allred et al. 2015; Chomphosy et al. 2021). In the last decades, energy production has become the largest user of rangelands in several parts of the OGM produced countries, occupying large areas and becoming the largest driver of land-use change (Kreuter et al. 2016). Although emerging energy resources, such as wind and solar, are growing rapidly due to the new advanced technologies, fossil fuel production continues and is predicted to expand in the future (Covert et al. 2016). This will have significant increases in damages to rangelands in terms of reduction of biodiversity, loses in vegetation, increase in carbon emissions, disruption on the natural ecological process, reduction and contamination of ground water, and decrease on the ecosystem services – the potential benefits that natural rangelands provide to humanity. In the frame of STELARR (Sustainable Investments for Large-scale Rangeland Restoration) project, this paper aims to give a comprehensive overview on the role this industry could play on rangeland restoration in the West Asia and Middle East (WAME) region and what is expected from it in terms of sustainable business practices and what roles the OGM countries-governments are to play given that are currently confronted by overlapping rangeland-oriented demands from ecologists and industry.
Effets du semis direct et de l'irrigation d'appoint sur le rendement du blé dur et la fertilité du sol à la station expérimentale de Marchouch (Zaer-Maroc).
(Thesis, 2022-09-23) Rharbaje, Meryem
In Morocco, available water resources have diminished, which represents a major risk for food security. Hence the need to adopt an innovative and sustainable system (no tillage system). In this context, the main objective assigned to this work is to determine the effect of no tillage in interaction with different water regimes. To do this, we installed our trial at the Marchouch experimental station of ICARDA. The study focused on monitoring the effects of tillage mode (CT: Conventionnal tillage; NT: No tillage), and three water regimes (Rainfed ; 1IR : One irrigation ; 2IR : Two irrigations). With the aim of evaluating, on the one hand, the effect of these factors and their interactions on the yield of durum wheat and its components (number of ears/m², number of grains/ears and TGW, grain and straw yield ) as well as nutrient and water use efficiency. On the other hand, their effect on the chemical properties of the soil (rate of organic matter, phosphorus, potassium and nitrogen) in two soil horizons (0-15 cm and 15-30 cm) and on two similar, homogeneous plots which have not only undergone the same technical itinerary but also have the same cultural precedents in recent years. The results of this study have in particular made it possible to demonstrate that the mode of tillage affects grain yield and straw yield. Let us add that the NT acts favorably on the normalized vegetation index (NDVI). Through the analysis of the results obtained, it seems that irrigation is essential in the context of drought in 2021/2022 for improving the yield of durum wheat, its growth and has a significant effect on the water use efficiency. It can be said that a second irrigation supply acts favorably and has a positive effect on yields under NT (3157.76 kg/ha) and on yield components in particular (the highest values are recorded under this amount of irrigation supply for: the number of grains/ear 29.28 grains/ear and TWG 45.98g). The water regime also acts on the chemical properties of the soil, in particular the nitrogen content (42.56 mg/kg). In conclusion, no-till systems have promising effects on yield in the context of the drought experienced by Morocco this year.
Weather risks and international migration: Panel-data evidence from Tajikistan
(Working Paper, 2025-06-09) Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila
Climate change and increased frequency of abnormal weather are becoming growing threats to people’s livelihood, including in Central Asia. These threats are particularly challenging in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the Central Asia region. Despite the fact that migration is prevalent and remittances account for a significant share of GDP, evidence is scarce as to whether the decision to migrate is driven by weather shocks, whether migration is used as mitigating tool against adverse weather shocks, and how much of the loss in welfare is actually mitigated by such migration. This study aims to narrow this knowledge gap by providing evidence based on a unique panel dataset from one of the poorest and agriculturally dependent regions in Tajikistan (Khatlon province), combined with a detailed set of various climate data. In doing so, we apply a novel approach through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify key weather shock variables among a vast set of potential variables associated with outmigration decisions in different districts. Our results show that different types of weather shocks are associated with outmigration decisions in different districts within the province, ranging from rainfall, temperatures, drought, and windspeed in different subperiods throughout the year. Regardless, more abnormal weather is almost universally associated with more outmigration, and outmigration significantly mitigates the potentially adverse effects on household consumption and food/nutrition security in the origin households. However, more abnormal weather in the origin location is also associated with reduced remittances per month per migrant sent to the origin location. Thus, the capacity of migration to mitigate against weather shocks is still limited. Combined with migration policies that increase net earnings during migration, supplementary support to enhance climate resilience in home locations, such as climate-smart agriculture and development of the non-farm sector, remains critical.
Assessing the accuracy of multi-model approaches for downscaling land surface temperature across diverse agroclimatic zones
(Journal Article, 2025) Roy, Debasish; Das, Bappa; Singh, Pooja; Santra, Priyabrata; Deb, Shovik; Bhattacharya, Bimal Kumar; Govind, Ajit; Jatav, Raghuveer; Sethi, Deepak; Ghosh, Tridiv; Mukherjee, Joydeep; Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Prakash Kumar Jha; Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Chakraborty, Debashis
Land surface temperature (LST) is a critical parameter for land surface and atmospheric interactions. However, the applicability of current LST estimates for field-level hydrological, agricultural, and ecological operations is challenging due to their coarse spatiotemporal resolution. In the current article, we compared three different models, namely 1) Thermal Sharpening (TsHARP), 2) Thin Plate Spline (TPS), and 3) Random Forest (RF) for downscaling LST from 100 to 10 m by using high-resolution Sentinel-1,2 optical-microwave data. TsHARP, TPS, and RF are commonly used methods for improving the spatial resolution of large-scale environmental or climate data to finer scales for field-level applications. The analysis was performed at agricultural farms in the semi-arid, arid, and per-humid regions of India during the winter and summer seasons of 2020-21 and 2021-22. The calibration accuracy of the RF model was in better agreement with the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and normalized RMSE (nRMSE) values ranging between 0.961-0.997, 0.103-0.439 K, and 0.034-0.143%, respectively, and lower values of standard errors for all three locations. Though the validation accuracy of models varied between the regions, RF and TPS consistently outperformed the TsHARP model. Further the impact of individual features on LST downscaling was analyzed using Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) plot. The study concluded that RF is an effective and adaptable strategy that can be used in various agroclimatic zones and land cover types, suggesting its broader applicability in agricultural and ecological operations. Finer resolution LST data with enhanced precision can support tailored field-level decision-making and interventions in agriculture and environmental monitoring.
Beyond biodiversity: does “Farming with Alternative Pollinators” also boost farmers’ income in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) fields? a case study in Morocco
(Journal Article) Bencharki, Youssef; Michez, Denis; Smaili, Moulay Chrif; Ihsane, Oumayma; Aw-Hassan, Aden A.; Ssymank, Axel; Rasmont, Pierre; Christmann, Stefanie
The importance of flower visitors for ecosystem resilience and crop production underscores the need to address the current decline of flower visitors worldwide. Farming Alternative Pollinators (FAP), economic and ecological benefits of fields hosting various marketable habitat enhancement plants, developed for flower visitors protection in low- and middle-income countries, showed multiple benefits for farmers of pollinator-dependent crops, but potential benefits of FAP for production of pollinator-independent crops have not yet been assessed. Therefore, we conducted in 2021 FAP trials with wheat (Triticum aestivum) as the main crop in two regions of Morocco where cereals are mainly grown in monocultures in field sizes ranging from 2 to 5 ha. We tested the effects of fields adding marketable habitat enhancement plants (MHEP; coriander and canola) versus control fields on pests, natural enemies, flower visitors, and net income. We found significantly lower abundance and diversity of pests in wheat fields using MHEP, but no effect on natural enemy presence or net income. The strips of MHEP attracted a high number of flower visitors in both regions (Settat and Sidi Slimane), they supported flower visitor communities by providing plant resources and alternative habitat in monocultural landscapes extremely degraded for flower visitors.
Inclusive policy development from the ground up: insights from the household water-energy-food nexus
(Journal Article, 2025-07) Al-Zu'bi, Maha; Mabhaudhi, T.; Daher, B.; Brouziyne, Youssef
Despite substantial contemporary research and a growing trend in exploring the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, most research efforts have been invested in macro-level supply-side infrastructure and policies. However, prioritizing demand-side management policies can provide new opportunities and untapped potential for addressing interconnected resource challenges. Demand management inherently encompasses users’ consumption patterns, behaviors, socio-economic conditions, and choices, thereby necessitating active engagement and participation. Understanding household-level demands is fundamental to assess the demand for and consumption of water, energy, and food, as well as to inform policy decisions. In this context, our study investigated household consumption patterns within the interconnected WEF nexus, including daily practices such as cooking and washing, conservation measures, household governance, and their cross-cutting relationships with climate change. As a case study, we conducted our research in the Jabal Al Natheef neighborhood of Amman City, Jordan. Our findings reveal that households can propose and enact climate-friendly decisions. Significant gender-related differences were also observed in decisions made across WEF household practices. Additionally, households’ perspectives highlighted governance issues and revealed gaps in policy implementation along with the need for more inclusive decision-making processes. Our results underscore the importance of understanding household-level WEF nexus dynamics and daily practices in informing environmental policies, particularly those related to climate action. Such policies are best developed from the bottom-up by incorporating household insights, rather than relying solely on top-down, one-size-fits-all solutions.
Unraveling agricultural water use in three Central Asian irrigation oases using remote sensing
(Journal Article, 2025-06) Ragettli, S.; Kreiner, A.; Yakovlev, A.; Anarbekov, O.; Al-Zu’bi, Maha; Urazkeldiyev, A.; Siegfried, T.
Study Region: Three major irrigation oases in Uzbekistan (Bukhara, Samarkand and Kashkadarya) Study focus: The study employs remote sensing to develop enhanced methodologies for quantifying water use in Central Asian irrigation oases from 2017 to 2022. By integrating earth observation data into a water balance approach, we quantify variables that are typically challenging to measure, such as groundwater overdraft and non-growing season water use for soil preparation. A key aspect of agricultural water management in the region is utilizing water from reservoirs. Here we introduce a novel approach that combines optical remote sensing with satellite laser altimetry to monitor the availability and use of active water storage in reservoirs. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate that water from reservoir storage satisfies up to 14.9 % ± 2.2 % of the annual demand, but another 11.5 % ± 5.2 % are groundwater withdrawals. Our analysis indicates a necessary average annual reduction in groundwater extractions by at least 8.0 % ± 1.6 % for sustainability. Additionally, highly energy-intensive water pumping from Amu Darya River provides more than half of the water resources used in Bukhara and Kashkadarya, resulting in a significant carbon footprint of the region’s agricultural production. The detailed breakdown of water uses and irrigation water consumption by crop type informs efficient, sustainable water management, offering new opportunities for agricultural water accounting in Central Asian irrigation oases.
CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa: Annual Technical Report 2024
(Report, 2025-04-15) CGIAR Initiative on Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa
Podcasts about Community-based Theater to Strengthen Women’s Land Rights and Entrepreneurship (Darija)
(Video) Najjar, Dina
Seeking to challenge these deep-rooted norms, ICARDA, in collaboration with Oxfam and Spect’Act Foundation, introduced ‘Theatre of the Oppressed’, an interactive drama technique pioneered by Brazilian dramatist Augusto Boal. The method encourages audiences to step into the roles of protagonists facing oppression, exploring solutions through improvisation and debate. The Podcasts summarize the approach and findings in Amazigh and Darija.
Podcasts about Community-based Theater to Strengthen Women’s Land Rights and Entrepreneurship (Amazigh)
(Video) Najjar, Dina
Seeking to challenge these deep-rooted norms, ICARDA, in collaboration with Oxfam and Spect’Act Foundation, introduced ‘Theatre of the Oppressed’, an interactive drama technique pioneered by Brazilian dramatist Augusto Boal. The method encourages audiences to step into the roles of protagonists facing oppression, exploring solutions through improvisation and debate. The Podcasts summarize the approach and findings in Amazigh and Darija.
Who talks about climate, peace and security? A social media analysis to identify key actors
(Journal Article, 2025-01-29) Tucci, Giulia; Carneiro, Bia; Caroli, Giulia; Pacillo, Grazia
Uncovering key actors within a policy network provides pathways for engagement, consensus-building, partnership development, and understanding the diffusion of knowledge in a given debate. Given the unprecedented scale of the climate emergency, the emerging field of climate security has rapidly gained centrality in academic and policy fora, as well as in the public debate. Yet, a systematic analysis of the main actors engaged in this space is missing. This study draws from digital methods and network analysis techniques to employ a method for identifying relevant actors, focusing on Twitter (now X) from 2014 to 2022, with the objective of spotting the major actors driving public discussions around climate security. The research also demonstrates how institutions can position themselves within such issue networks through a case study of the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research (CGIAR), a global research-for-development organization that has recently positioned itself in the climate security community. Results reveal that the climate security debate on social media is predominantly institutional, with research bodies and international organizations as central elements. While CGIAR is a relatively new actor, it is already centrally located in the network, maintaining strong connections with other major players, which places it in a strategic position to enhance its influence and reach. Understanding this discursive landscape is crucial for identifying opportunities for effective engagement, partnership, and positioning in such an increasingly salient field of research and practice.
Pathway from water-conflict to water-peace in the Middle East and North Africa
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Khalifa, Muhammad; Al-Zu’bi, Maha; Brouziyne, Youssef
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with its arid and semi-arid climate, faces profound challenges in managing limited water resources. These challenges are further intensified by political tensions and socioeconomic inequalities, often resulting in water being an essential element in conflicts and tensions. Particularly during the last decade, the number of conflicts involving water has increased dramatically in MENA. This research explores the dynamics of water’s role in conflicts, actors and scales of conflict across five fragile MENA countries, where it serves as a weapon, a catalyst, and a casualty. The analysis revealed a significant increase in the number of water-related incidents during the last two decades in these countries, with devastating implications on multiple social, economic, and security dimensions. The study suggests a concentric circle transformation (CCT) framework with three tiers of strategies: foundational, supportive, and expansive to help move from water-conflict to water-peace in MENA. These strategies, with examples of interventions, support transformation to water-peace by integrating soft interventions like empowering local communities, raising awareness, with hard interventions such as building resilient infrastructures and leveraging the power of innovative technological solutions. The framework offers scalable and adaptable solutions for regions facing similar challenges globally.
Souss-Massa Online Water Accounting Dashboard: Innovation Package and Scaling Readiness (IPSR) Report
(Report, 2024-12-30) Al-Zu’bi, Maha; Akpoti, Komlavi; Brouziyne, Youssef
Highlights: Bootcamp— AgriTech4Egypt Innovation Challenge
(Video, 2024-07-15) CGIAR Accelerate for Impact Platform
On 10-13 June 2024, 50 of the most innovative minds in agri-tech came together in rural Belbeis, on the outskirts of Cairo, Egypt, to connect, accelerate, and scale-up their solutions with the AgriTech4Egypt Innovation Challenge Bootcamp, powered by the CGIAR Accelerate for Impact Platform (A4IP) and supported by an international consortium of partners. Representing 25 teams from 11 nationalities and 5 CGIAR-led teams, these participants competed to move to the next stage of the challenge— the acceleration program.
Support Pollinators and Boost Farmers' Incomes with Farming with Alternative Pollinators!
(Brochure, 2024-12-01) Bencharki, Youssef
Farming with Alternative Pollinators (FAP) boosts crop yield and quality by attracting diverse pollinators and natural pest controllers. This approach integrates marketable habitat enhancement plants (MHEP), nesting, and water support, benefiting farmers in low- and middle-income countries while protecting pollinators.
“Farming with alternative pollinators” provides benefits also in large-scale fields
(Journal Article, 2024-01-10) Bencharki, Youssef; Michez, Denis; Ihsane, Oumayma; Reverté, Sara; Aw-Hassan, Aden A.; Smaili, Moulay Chrif; Ssymank, Axel; Rasmont, Pierre; Christmann, Stefanie
Insect pollinators are declining worldwide due to many challenges and several approaches have been implemented to mitigate their loss. Farming with Alternative Pollinators (FAP) uses marketable habitat enhancement plants (MHEP) that yield substantial benefits for farmers from the first year. Studies with small-scale farmers have shown that FAP sustains high diversity and abundance of flower visitors and natural enemies, resulting in significant increases in smallholders' incomes, on average 121% higher. For the first time, we analyzed this approach in large-scale fields. Trials were conducted in 16 farms in two regions of Morocco, Sidi Slimane and Ksar El-Kebir, in 2021. We used melon (Cucumis melo) as the main crop and coriander, anise and sunflower as MHEP and selected in each farm 1 ha as trial area in larger monocultures. We compared FAP and control fields regarding abundance and richness of flower visitors, natural enemies and pests as well as net income of the whole field (1 ha). Flower visitors and natural enemies were significantly more diverse and abundant in FAP fields and there were also fewer pests. Our economic results show 17% higher net income per ha in FAP fields versus control fields in the Ksar El-Kebir region, and 12% higher net income in FAP fields compared to control fields in Sidi Slimane region. Although the mean yield difference was statistically significant, the income difference was not. We suggest more FAP trials are needed in different large-scale fields systems.
Women's collectives as champions of climate-smart agriculture and water resilience
(Blog Post, 2024-10-15) AI-Zu'bi, Maha; Krishna, Vijesh
On International Rural Women's Day, the International Water Management Institute and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center {CIMMYT) celebrate the vital role women play in shaping sustainable water, land, and food systems, especially in rural regions facing resource challenges. Supported by the CGIAR Gender Platform, the two centers implement the "Learning in Tandem" project, which highlights the transformative power of women's collectives across the Middle East and North Africa and South Asia. These collectives are driving gender equity and fostering resilience in agriculture by managing water resources, enhancing land productivity and ensuring food security. In Morocco and India, these collectives have adopted climate-smart farming practices, promoted water conservation and empowered women economically and socially. Their efforts highlight the importance of local leadership in building climate resilience and sustainable agricultural development, providing a blueprint for communities globally.

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