Alliance Research Lever 8: Performance, Innovation and Strategic Analysis for Impact

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/114335

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Adoption without gains, and vice-versa: Exploring the disconnect between improved bean varieties and yield in Central America and Haiti through the lens of seed systems
(Journal Article, 2025) Reyes, Byron; Maredia, Mywish K.; Martínez, José María; Gomez, Lorena; Rosas, Juan Carlos; Miranda, Angela
Context: Common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are vital for food security and rural livelihoods in Central America and Haiti. Over the past 30 years, R&D has focused on breeding resilient bean varieties to withstand climate change, pests, and diseases. However, the success of these innovations depends not only on variety development but also on efficient seed systems that deliver them to farmers—a crucial yet often overlooked factor in maxi-mizing agricultural R&D benefits. Objectives: This study evaluates the adoption of improved bean varieties and associated yield differences across Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Haiti. It also assesses the extent to which current seed systems facilitate or constrain adoption and potential yield outcomes. Methods: This study used a mixed-methods approach, combining DNA fingerprinting, farmer surveys, on-farm field trials, and expert interviews to assess adoption of improved varieties. Regression analysis was used to examine yield differences, controlling for observable factors. Results: Adoption estimates ranged from 10 % (Nicaragua) to 77 % (Haiti). Only Nicaragua—despite low adoption—showed a significant yield gain (~33 % at p < 0.05). In contrast, Guatemala, Honduras, and Haiti recorded no gains despite moderate to high adoption reported by experts (Honduras and Guatemala) or confirmed by DNA analysis (Haiti). DNA evidence reveals contamination in formal seed channels, while survey data and expert opinion suggest that limited support services may constrain performance. Significance: Adoption alone is not a sufficient metric of success. Ensuring genetic integrity, local adaptation of varieties, and effective delivery systems is critical for translating research investment into yield benefits. Strengthening seed quality control, aligning bean breeding with farmer needs, and supporting informal systems are key to maximizing impact.
Beans, climate and resilience: How weather and climate information is transforming bean farming in Homa Bay
(Blog Post, 2025-07-09) Kiogora, Joseline Kanja; Kagabo, Desire; Maina, Priscillah
Malnutrition and violent conflict in a heating world: A mediation analysis on the climate–conflict nexus in Nigeria
(Journal Article, 2025-05-12) Belli, Anna; Villa, Victor; Mastrorillo, Marina; Scognamillo, Antonio; Song, Chun; Ignaciuk, Adriana; Pacillo, Grazia
Key narratives around agroecological transitions. A systematic literature review of the current debate
(Journal Article, 2025-07-01) Mockshell, Jonathan; Omulo, Godfrey; Hidalgo, Francisco; Quintero, Marcela; Ritter, Thea; Orjuela, Guillermo; Place, Frank
As agrifood systems face mounting socio-ecological challenges, agroecology is increasingly viewed as a comprehensive approach to achieving sustainability. However, the public debate over whether this is the most suitable approach or whether it is viable at a large scale remains open. Examining how this debate unfolds is crucial as it can shape the future of agrifood systems. This paper contributes by conducting a systematic literature review to identify key perspectives and actors shaping the public debate around agroecology. Perspectives are framed around three narratives labeled “supportive,” “skeptical,” and “pragmatic.” These narratives are articulated across sub-narratives in six highly debated areas: (1)initial transition costs, (2) input use and supply chain systems, (3) yield potential, (4) labor, (5) scalability, and (6) market access. The review also accounts for a broad group of actors participating in the debate from multiple – sometimes ambiguous and fluid – perspectives. The review shows that mobilizing the debate to enable agroecological transitions requires an integrative approach under-scored by knowledge co-creation and collective learning. Based on insights from participatory approaches, we provide considerations for making these processes work and highlight areas that require further examination
Unraveling the spatial patterns of water conflicts in Africa through a multi-scale lens
(Journal Article, 2025-06-06) Song, Chun; Petsakos, Athanasios; Gotor, Elisabetta
In Africa, water conflicts are increasing, posing significant threats to livelihoods. Unraveling the spatial pattern and drivers of water conflicts is essential for anticipating risks and targeting water policies. However, there is a lack of evidence to support this need. Using a multi-scale spatial approach, we examine the spatially heterogeneous influence of drought on intrastate water conflicts and how this may shape future water conflict patterns. We construct a unique dataset of water conflicts at the pixel level from 2010 to 2024 for 21 African countries. Results show that drought increases water conflict fatalities, with a 0.7% rise per 10 km closer to a country's border. Future droughts are anticipated to result in different trends in water conflict fatalities across areas. This pattern is not explained by the overall security situation or factors like irrigation, but may stem from weaker water governance in border areas, implying that stronger water governance may partially mitigate the impact of drought-driven water scarcity on intensifying water conflicts. Our study highlights the importance of identifying areas that face a dual risk from drought and inadequate governance to inform decision-making that strengthens water governance and de-escalates water conflicts.
Tortillas fuera del comal - sistemas agrícolas y alimentarios resilientes al clima para Centroamérica (TOR2)
(Presentation, 2025-06-11) Gonzalez, Carlos R; Eitzinger, Anton; Navarro, Carlos; Castillo, Johana
The TOR2 study assesses how climate change affects the suitability of key crops such as maize and beans in Central America and identifies increasing risks from extreme weather events. It explores the potential for agricultural diversification with 30 crops and generates detailed local-scale spatial data to support adaptation decision-making.
El Análisis Cualitativo Comparado (QCA): Una herramienta para entender fenómenos complejos en las ciencias sociales
(Brief, 2025-03-01) Garcia, Maria Alejandra; Urbani, Ilaria
This Learning Note introduces Comparative Qualitative Analysis (QCA), a hybrid method combining qualitative depth with quantitative logic to explore complex causality in social phenomena. Originating from sociology and comparative politics, QCA is particularly suited for small and medium sample sizes. It uses set theory and Boolean algebra to identify necessary and sufficient conditions that explain a given outcome, recognizing the principle of equifinality and asymmetric causality. The Note outlines the steps of QCA and presents a case study on citizen participation in hydropower resettlement processes in the Global South. The method's relevance for governance, public policy, and multidimensional sustainability issues is emphasized, positioning QCA as a valuable tool for both theoretical insight and practical application. Espanol Esta Nota de Aprendizaje presenta el Análisis Cualitativo Comparado (QCA), un método híbrido que combina la profundidad cualitativa con la lógica cuantitativa para explorar la causalidad compleja en fenómenos sociales. Originado en la sociología y la política comparada, el QCA es especialmente útil para muestras pequeñas o medianas. Utiliza teoría de conjuntos y álgebra booleana para identificar condiciones necesarias y suficientes que explican un resultado determinado, reconociendo el principio de equifinalidad y la causalidad asimétrica. La Nota describe las etapas del QCA y presenta un estudio de caso sobre la participación ciudadana en procesos de reasentamiento por hidroeléctricas en el Sur Global. Se destaca la utilidad del método para el análisis de gobernanza, políticas públicas y sostenibilidad multidimensional, posicionándolo como una herramienta valiosa tanto para el análisis teórico como práctico.
Fine-tuned AI for tracking policy demands and studies
(Brief, 2025-06-01) Yego, Francis; Song, Chun; Laporte, Marie-Angelique
This Learning Note describes the development of an AI-based system using fine-tuned language models to support researchers in identifying and analyzing policy demands. The Alliance’s PISA team developed an annotated dataset from policy documents, labeling key elements such as drivers, outcomes, and interventions, and classifying texts as either foresight or ex-post studies. The AI model, based on RoBERTa, performed Named Entity Recognition and classification tasks, achieving high precision for socioeconomic and biophysical entities. However, it faced challenges in distinguishing study types and interpreting nuanced contexts. The Note highlights technical and non-technical challenges, and emphasizes the importance of modular AI models and interdisciplinary collaboration for effective policy analysis. Future efforts aim to enhance context reasoning and deploy user-facing tools like web portals or chatbots.
From deficiency to demand: Consumer preferences for zinc-biofortified rice in Colombia
(Journal Article, 2025-05-01) Oswalt, Sara; Durand-Morat, Alvaro; Rivera, Tatiana; Gallego, Sonia; Andrade, Robert; McFadden, Brandon; Bonatti, Michelle
Undernourishment caused by micronutrient deficiencies (hidden hunger) remains a critical global challenge affecting billions worldwide. Approximately 25 % of the population in Colombia has inadequate zinc intake. Biofortification of staple crops, such as rice, offers a promising solution to address this problem. However, changes in the physical and culinary attributes due to biofortification may hinder consumer acceptance and limit the benefits of this approach. This study assesses the impact of zinc fortification, information, and consumer nutrition knowledge on consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for rice in Cartagena, Colombia. We used a non-hypothetical experimental auction including 400 consumers. The results indicate that, without labelling and information treatment, zinc-biofortified rice is priced equal to premium-quality rice, and at an 18.8 % premium relative to standard-quality rice, highlighting that the high zinc content did not affect rice quality. Labelling results in an increase in WTP for both zinc-biofortified and premium-quality rice but not for standard-quality rice. Information about the benefits of zinc and the problems of zinc deficiency increases the WTP for zinc-biofortified rice by 8.2 % premium relative to premium-quality rice and a 43.8 % premium relative to standard-quality rice, which was reinforced by participants' nutrition knowledge. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to address malnutrition effectively, suggesting the implementation of targeted educational initiatives to enhance consumer acceptance, as well as the rice industry and retailers hoping to produce and market biofortified staple crops.
Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments
(Journal Article, 2025) Petsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Falck-Zepeda, José; Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz; Schiek, Benjamin; Gotor, Elisabetta
Regional and global economic models, combined with spatially distributed crop growth simulation models and hydrology models that simulate water supply and demand across sectors (among others), represent the most widely used quantitative approach for addressing questions related to food security under alternative future scenarios (e.g., for a recent reference, van Dijk et al., 2021). These integrated foresight modelling approaches, hereinafter referred to as “Agricultural Integrated Assessment Models” (AIAMs), provide a macro-level view of the global food system, encompassing, directly or indirectly, implicitly or explicitly, components outlined in contemporary definitions (HLPE, 2017). Due to the complex nature of modelling the effects of crop pests and pathogens (P&P) on crop performances, the use of AIAMs in P&P-related analyses has been scant and limited to hypothetical epidemics caused by specific P&Ps affecting a single crop (Godfray et al., 2016; Petsakos et al., 2023). This limitation, also identified in the ex-ante assessment of the pesticide reduction objective of the European Common Agricultural Policy (Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021), suggests that AIAMs overlook a critical element – one that has historically contributed to, or even triggered, famine events (Padmanabhan, 1973; Woodham-Smith, 1992). Given the importance of AIAMs in informing policies and shaping agricultural decisions at national and global scales (e.g., Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021; Fuglie et al., 2022), it is necessary to adress this gap.
Review of tricot principles and data analysis workflows
(Presentation, 2025-05-15) De Sousa, Kaue; Laporte, Marie-Angelique; Van Etten, Jacob
A scoping review of the incentives for promoting the adoption of agroecological practices and outcomes among rice farmers in Vietnam
(Journal Article, 2025-04-25) Ogutu, Sylvester; Mockshell, Jonathan; Minh, Thai; Remans, Roseline
Recent research and development efforts to achieve sustainable rice production in Vietnam have incorporated agroecological principles and practices. These efforts have come as a result of increasing pressure on food systems to achieve global food security. Growing food demand, rising population, climate change, and natural resources degradation, make it necessary to transform the current production systems towards more sustainable models. Agroecology is being promoted as one of the pathways to transition toward sustainable food production, with broad adoption requiring incentives for farmers. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines, we conducted a scoping review of 120 articles to understand the incentives applied for promoting agroecological practices, whether and how the incentives promote the adoption of agroecological practices, and their relationship with economic, environmental, and social outcomes among rice farmers in Vietnam. Such in-depth reviews of the role of incentives in the agroecological transition are scarce. Results show that in about 60% of the articles, incentives led to adoption, outcomes (e.g., yield and income gains), or both, suggesting the importance and common use of incentives among rice farmers in Vietnam. Four types of incentives used were market, non-market, regulatory, and cross-compliance. These incentives directly or indirectly influenced outcomes through the adoption of agroecological practices. Market incentives (33%) were relatively more important for directly influencing outcomes, while non-market incentives (50%) were more important for indirectly influencing outcomes. Market, non-market, and regulatory incentives were more associated with the adoption of new agronomic practices, such as farm diversification, improved varieties, and organic agriculture than with other practices, while cross-compliance incentives were more highly associated with adoption of agroforestry. Generally, the incentives used were more associated with economic outcomes (56%), than with environmental (31%), and social (13%) outcomes. Overall, the results show that incentives influence outcomes differently, and a combination of different incentives is required to achieve holistic outcomes.
Citizen science informs demand-driven breeding of opportunity crops
(Journal Article, 2025-05-13) Voss, Rachel C.; De Sousa, Kaue; N'Danikou, Sognigbé; Shango, Abdul; Aglinglo, Lys Amavi; Laporte, Marie-Angelique; Legba, Eric C.; Houdegbe, Aristide Carlos; Diarra, Danfing dit Youssouf; Dolo, Aminata; Sidibe, Amadou; Ouedraogo, Colette Ouidyam; Coulibaly, Harouna; Achigan-Dako, Enoch G.; Kileo, Aishi; Malulu, Dickson; Matumbo, Zamira; Dinssa, Fekadu; van Heerwaarden, Joost; Van Etten, Jacob; Riar, Amritbir; van Zonneveld, Maarten
Colombian universities incorporate PlaSA Colombia as a pedagogical tool to promote food system education among young people
(Case Study, 2025-05-08) Rankin, Sara; Gonzalez, Carlos; Castillo, Johana
The Alliance-developed PlaSA Colombia platform enhances education on food systems through interactive, data-driven learning experiences, making complex concepts more accessible and engaging. Integrated into curricula at Pontificia Universidad Javeriana and ICESI University, the platform has improved students’ and educators’ capacity to analyze sustainability challenges. Over 190 participants engaged in experiential learning activities, fostering critical thinking and informed decision-making on food choices. Institutional adoption and expansion plans demonstrate its scalability, while interdisciplinary collaboration has strengthened its impact, making PlaSA Colombia a replicable model for transforming food systems education.
PestDisPlace transforms pest and disease monitoring with collaborative (or community) surveillance and genomic analysis
(Case Study, 2025-05-08) Cuellar, Wilmer; Rodriguez, Rafael
.The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT-developed platform, PestDisPlace, is transforming pest and disease monitoring by providing real-time community tracking and genomic analysis, enabling rapid-response strategies in the Global South. PestDisPlace has helped successfully track Cassava Witches’ Broom Disease (CWBD) outbreaks in Brazil and French Guiana and is currently used in Ecuador to for preemtive monitoring and early warning of Fusarium TR4. These devastating diseases pose high phytosanitary risks and exacerbate food insecurity. PestDisPlace has informed policy, improved early warning systems, and contributed to climate-driven pest research, and agricultural workers’ capacities, which are being applied for more effective disease management.
Identifying critical incentives for scaling out the adoption of agroecological practices–a systematic review of Peruvian cacao value chains
(Journal Article, 2025-05-02) Mockshell, Jonathan; Omulo, Godfrey; Asante-Addo, Collins; Nielsen Ritter, Thea; Quintero, Marcela; Remans, Roseline
The growing global importance of agroecology highlights the pivotal role public and private sectors play in providing incentives and investments to catalyze behavioural changes and transform food systems. However, limited research exists on incentives for scaling agroecological practices in cacao value chains. This study employed a systematic review approach, focusing on Peruvian cacao sector, to explore incentives promoting agroecological practices and their sustainability outcomes. Findings reveal that within Peru’s cacao value chains, non-market incentives constitute the majority (36%), followed by regulatory measures (25%), market-based incentives (22%), and cross-compliance incentives (17%). Main providers of incentives include certification bodies, community-based organizations, and international funding organizations. Effective incentives include sustainability standards, market support subsidies, in-kind rewards, and agroecological schemes that support the adoption of practices such as intercropping, nature conservation for carbon sequestration, and the use of green and animal manure. These incentives have significantly improved sustainability outcomes: economic (39%), environmental (33%), and social (28%). However, limited use of cross-compliance incentives and modest emphasis on social outcomes highlight the need for policy instruments targeting the adoption of agroecological practices within cacao sector. This study provides insights for policymakers, development agencies, and private-sector to design effective incentives for advancing agroecological transitions in Peru and beyond.
Political economy and governance: Agriculture and food policy from local to global
(Book Chapter, 2025-05-28) Kyle, Jordan; Resnick, Danielle; Mockshell, Jonathan
Policymaking is shaped by evidence as well as by political economy and governance factors such as incentives, institutional structures, ideological biases, and power dynamics. Over the past several decades, these factors have intersected with significant trends affecting the international development policy landscape, with important implications for agriculture and food policy. This chapter examines the key areas of decentralization, agriculture and food policy reform processes, political economy of distribution, and state capacity, before looking ahead to the need to build effective and legitimate global institutions for food systems governance.
A FAIR and project-oriented template for open science data workflows
(Template, 2025-04-15) De Sousa, Kaue; Laporte, Marie-Angelique
Sacrificing leisure for clean energy fuel: A decomposition analysis of time poverty
(Journal Article, 2025-04-08) Martey, Edward; Etwire, Prince M.; Mockshell, Jonathan; Asante‐Addo, Collins
Given the extended hours demanded by the labour market and the health risks posed by pollution from nonrenewable energy sources, the question of whether households are willing to prioritise clean energy over leisure remains unresolved. This study addresses this gap by investigating the impact of time constraints, encompassing both paid and unpaid work, on the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI) using data from the seventh round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS 7). Our findings indicate that households experiencing time constraints are more inclined to adopt clean energy fuels. A decomposition analysis of time constraints reveals that while those stemming from paid work encourage the adoption of clean energy fuels, those associated with unpaid work hinder it. This suggests that households prioritise clean energy when faced with time pressures related to paid employment. Our results hold across various estimation methods and withstand robustness checks using different time and energy poverty metrics. The adverse impact of time constraints on energy poverty is particularly pronounced in rural areas, male‐headed households and communities with accessible roads. We posit that household income serves as a key mechanism through which time constraints influence energy poverty.
Explorando los modelos de negocio para las transiciones agroecológicas en los cultivos de cacao y camu camu en Ucayali, Perú
(Brief, 2025-04-01) Blanco, Maria; Mosquera, Leslie Estefany; De Los Rios, Rafael; Crisostomo, Diego; Díaz, César; Ritter, Thea; Ivanova, Yovita; Mockshell, Jonathan; Sanchez, Jose Choy
Mensajes clave La transición agroecológica es una oportunidad estratégica para el desarrollo sostenible en Ucayali. Los productores de cacao y camu camu ofrecen productos de alta calidad, pero enfrentan barreras, como el acceso limitado a financiamiento, una infraestructura deficiente y costos elevados de certificación. Agroindustria y gastronomía valorizan la biodiversidad amazónica. Innovación, economía circular y conexiones con productores locales son claves para fortalecer la competitividad, impulsar el desarrollo regional y promover alimentos sostenibles. Las cooperativas y asociaciones son actores clave para conectar productores con mercados, financiamiento y prácticas sostenibles. Las políticas que refuercen su rol impulsarán la adopción de sistemas agroecológicos y beneficios sociales. Las inversiones público-privadas en riego, capacitación y tecnología, junto con incentivos como créditos accesibles, estrategias de biocomercio y pagos por servicios ambientales, impulsarán cadenas sostenibles. Promover la diversificación, las tecnologías ecoeficientes y los saberes ancestrales reduce los riesgos climáticos y mejora los ingresos. Los incentivos económicos y los programas especializados son esenciales para facilitar esta transición y garantizar un impacto sostenible en Ucayali.

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