IFPRI Briefs

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Vegetable, fruit, and staple crop production and input use: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation
(Brief, 2025-07-17) Bliznashka, Lilia; Dione, Malick; Zagré, Rock Romaric; Boniface, Simon; Dinssa, Fekadu; Mwambi, Mercy; Mbwambo, Omary; Mwombeki, Wiston; Jeremiah, Kidola; Malindisa, Evangelista; Kinabo, Joyce; Cunningham, Kenda; Olney, Deanna K.; Kumar, Neha
In Tanzania, fruit and vegetable (F&V) production is the fastest growing agricultural subsector.1 Production is concentrated among smallholder farmers who face numerous barriers which hamper intensification. These include lack of quality inputs, insufficient financing, limited access to subsidies, limited extension services, and limited and unreliable access to markets. The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN) Area of Work 3, is testing the effectiveness of its end-to-end approach in Northern Tanzania.2 This approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V. The supply interventions are designed to address known barriers faced by F&V farmers. For example, the provision of climate-resilient vegetable cultivars tackles the lack of quality inputs, whereas training on safe and sustainable vegetable production, including integrated pest management, tackles limited extension services. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partners are conducting a longitudinal evaluation to assess the impact of the FRESH end-to-end approach in Tanzania on household vegetable production and F&V intake among women of reproductive age. The evaluation is being conducted among 2,611 households living in 33 villages in five districts in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the production of vegetables, fruit, and staple crops and the inputs used in production among different types of farming households in the study area.
Lessons Learned from Implementing the CAADP Biennial Review Process Under the Malabo Declaration
(Brief, 2025-07-01) Makombe, T.; Ulimwengu, John M.; Matchaya, Greenwell C.
The Biennial Review (BR), launched under the 2014 Malabo Declaration, serves as the African Union's (AU) primary mutual accountability tool for tracking Member States' progress in implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). This brief, drawing lessons from four BR cycles, aims to inform the next phase of BRs in preparation for the domestication and implementation of the 2025 Kampala CAADP Declaration. While the BR has prompted policy and programmatic changes in several countries, its full impact is hindered by persistent challenges such as underfunding, weak monitoring and evaluation (M&E) capacities, and data quality issues. Despite these hurdles, innovations like the eBR and national data clusters have led to improvements in data quality and reporting rates. Still further improvements in data systems, capacities, and stakeholder engagement are urgently needed to strengthen the Biennial Review (BR) process. Key recommendations include adopting coherent data governance policies, promoting BR awareness and data utilization, refining the BR scorecard methodology, expanding data clusters to more countries, strengthening M&E capacities, ensuring inclusive BR validation, and integrating the BR database with M&E systems at both national and regional levels. Sustained political leadership, technical support, and domestic funding are critical to institutionalizing a robust, timely, high-quality, and impactful BR process that supports evidence-based decision-making and accelerates progress toward achieving the CAADP agrifood system transformation goals under the Kampala Declaration.
Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers
(Brief, 2025-07-02) Abay, Kibrom A.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Siddig, Khalid
The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure. This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises.
Integrating agriculture policies with climate change strategies and commitments in Nepal
(Brief, 2025-07-01) Chaudhary, Arbind; Babu, Suresh Chandra; Srivastava, Nandita
The world continues to grapple with acute hunger, malnutrition, poverty, income inequality, and other crises. In 2023, approximately 864 million people experienced severe food insecurity (FAO et al. 2024). On the one hand, poor policy adoption disrupts market and supply chain vulnerabilities, exacerbates food insecurity, and causes economic instability and crises (Hélène and Cohen 2020). On the other hand, disasters and extreme weather conditions significantly damage available infrastructure, transportation networks, and storage facilities, disrupting the distribution of agricultural commodities and as well as regular food patterns (Hasegawa et al. 2021). The COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action recognizes that agriculture and food systems must urgently adapt and transform to meet the challenges of climate change. It commits to integrating agriculture and food systems into climate action while simultaneously mainstreaming climate action across policy agendas and actions related to agriculture and food systems (UNFCCC 2023).
Clustering shrimp farms in Bangladesh: A novel effort with mixed outcomes
(Brief, 2025-05-21) Kabir, Razin; Belton, Ben; Narayanan, Sudha; Sakil, Abdul Zabbar; Khan, Asraul Hoque; Hernandez, Ricardo
Organizing smallholder farmers in clusters has been widely promoted as a way to boost agricultural productivity, streamline delivery of extension services, and improve access to markets. In Bangladesh, where shrimp is an important export crop produced largely by smallholders, government and industry view clustering as key to preventing Bangladesh being left behind in an increasingly competitive global market. Bangladesh’s shrimp exports are highly dependent on the hotel, restaurant, and catering (HoReCa) sector in Europe—a small and relatively low value market segment. Gaining access to the much larger and potentially more lucrative retail market segment in Europe and North America requires high quality, traceable, and - increasingly - certified, shrimp, posing a challenging for Bangladesh.
Informing CAADP 2026–2035: What a decade of IFPRI Research in Africa tells us
(Brief, 2025-05-20) Ulimwengu, John M.; Hema, Aboubacar; Marivoet, Wim; Omamo, Steven Were
This policy brief distills insights from a decade of IFPRI’s research and engagement across 54 African countries, offering a strategic synthesis to inform the Kampala 2026–2035 implementation phase of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Drawing from almost 5,700 publications between 2015 and 2025, and using a combination of natural language processing (NLP), deep learning algorithms and rule-based approaches, the review maps key findings against CAADP’s six strategic objectives: (1) intensifying sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, and trade; (2) boosting investment and financing for agrifood systems transformation; (3) ensuring food and nutrition security; (4) advancing inclusivity and equitable livelihoods; (5) building resilient agrifood systems; and (6) strengthening agrifood systems governance. By aligning evidence with strategic priorities, this synthesis aims to sharpen the research and policy agenda needed to accelerate agricultural transformation, ensure food security, and deepen resilience across the continent. The review reveals areas of significant progress—such as advances innovative finance, nutrition policy, social protection design, gender equity, and market functioning—while also exposing enduring gaps in data, investment diagnostics, and imple mentation capacity. The brief is thus both a stocktaking and a springboard, harnessing what is known to guide the next phase of CAADP.
Strengthening women’s livelihoods through the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA): Policy strategies for resilience and inclusion: The Bhubaneshwar Charter
(Brief, 2025-05-20) Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Kosec, Katrina; Paul, Meekha Hannah; Kumar, Deepak; Agnihotri, Satish B.; Murthy, Indu K.; Sarathy, Partha; Panda, Aditi
Globally, there is increasing recognition of the significant potential for social protection programs to sup-port sustainable livelihoods and build household resilience to climatic and economic shocks (Jordan et al., 2021; Norton et al., 2020). For women—who disproportionately bear the burden of these shocks—such programs serve as a critical safety net and a pathway to economic empowerment (Kosec et al., 2023; Mason & Agan, 2015). Yet, the extent to which social protection delivers on this promise depends on robust financing, inclusive program design, and effective implementation. Evidence suggests that public interventions often fall short in addressing gender inequalities, and that complementary efforts must be made to redress entrenched disadvantages that women might face in shaping, accessing, and benefiting from these programs.
Rwanda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development
(Brief, 2025-05-07) Aragie, Emerta A.; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Xu, Valencia Wenqian
In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Rwanda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple devel opment outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while extension and advisory services on livestock and climate emerge as the most efficient farmer-facing investments. However, crop ex tension services rank least in cost-effectiveness for economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.
Uganda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development
(Brief, 2025-05-07) Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Hashim; Jones, Eleanor
In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Uganda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their impact on environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while livestock extension services rank highest among the farmer-facing investments. Most R&D related interventions rank lowest in terms of cost-effectiveness at achieving economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effec tive investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when ex treme production shocks occur.
Ethiopia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development
(Brief, 2025-05-07) Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Pauw, Karl; Jones, Eleanor
In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ethiopia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Extension services for livestock, credit for farmers, R&D (agronomy), and safety nets also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.
Transforming fallow lands: An impact evaluation of the Comprehensive Rice Fallow Management (CRFM) Program in Odisha
(Brief, 2025-04-30) Roy, Devesh; Padhee, Arabinda Kumar; Pradhan, Mamata; Saroj, Sunil; Vidhani, Vandana; Kumar, Devendra; Kumar Burman, Amit
The Comprehensive Rice Fallow Management (CRFM) program, initiated by the Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Empowerment (DAFE), Government of Odisha, is a program to address the underutilization of rice fallow lands in Odisha, particularly during the Rabi (post-monsoon) season which occurs following the Kharif (monsoon) paddy harvest. CRFM was implemented to encourage cultivation of pulses and oilseeds that thrive on residual soil moisture. The CRFM program was implemented in 20 districts of Odisha, in collaboration with the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Government of India empaneled agencies that have a presence in the state and prior experience in similar programs. In the remaining 10 districts of the state, the CRFM program was implemented by the state government’s Chief District Agriculture Officers (CDAOs). The impacts of CRFM interventions evaluated in this study comprise crop demonstrations organized in clusters of at least 20 hectares, with crops like black gram, green gram, chickpeas, lentils, grass peas, sesamum, and mustard.
Navigating Nigeria’s food system challenges in the face of inflation and reform
(Brief, 2025-04-24) Omamo, Steven Were; Andam, Kwaw S.; Balana, Bedru; Amare, Mulubrhan; Popoola, Olufemi; Nwagboso, Chibuzo
Main Messages: 1. Low-income households in both urban and rural areas are hardest hit by rising food prices. Post-reform (fuel subsidies removal and exchange rate liberalization) price shocks and persistent inflation have disproportionately affected poor urban and rural households, forcing them to reduce food consumption and dietary diversity. Malnutrition and food insecurity are on the rise, particularly among children and women-headed households, with sharpest impacts in conflict-affected areas. 2. Small-scale farmers are not benefiting proportionately from price increases. Despite surging food prices, small-scale farmers face escalating input costs, poor market access, and structural in-efficiencies that leave them with marginal gains far below the rate of inflation. 3. Trading networks maintain healthy margins, amplifying systemic inefficiencies. Traders and intermediaries dominate the food supply chain, passing on increased costs to consumers while pre-serving or even increasing their profit margins, highlighting inequities in the distribution of benefits along the value chain. 4. Recent economic reforms and external shocks exacerbate structural weaknesses. Economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, have amplified existing challenges in the food system, including high transport costs, inadequate infrastructure, and fragmented markets. 5. Policy interventions should protect vulnerable groups and strengthen local food systems. Addressing these disparities requires targeted safety nets for consumers, support for small-scale farmers, and systemic investments to reduce inefficiencies in the value chain while promoting cli-mate-resilient food systems.
Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04) Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are national economy and population of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to PNG’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?
Ethiopia: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04) Mukashov, Askar; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Ethiopia’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Ethiopia’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?
Egypt: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04) Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Ecker, Olivier; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Egypt’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Egypt’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?
Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04-11) Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.
Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04-11) Mukashov, Askar; Pauw, Karl; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Ghana’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Ghanaian economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Ghana. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that Ghana’s trade-oriented economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with fluctuations in world prices of key exports—particularly energy and metals—significantly influencing eco nomic activity and the country’s ability to finance imports. Poverty and undernourishment risks present a more complex picture, with a significant difference between urban and rural risk factors. Rural households, which are generally poorer than urban households and constitute the majority of the poor and undernourished population, are more exposed to domestic production volatility factors. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.
Increasing access to and uptake of livestock vaccines and women’s empowerment with gender-responsive vaccine delivery systems
(Brief, 2025-03-30) Galiè, Alessandra ; Njiru, Nelly; Omondi, Immaculate A.; Malapit, Hazel J. ; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Lecoutere, Els; Muchiri, Caroline
There are persistent and significant gender gaps in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) which negatively impact productivity, food security and livelihoods. Livestock, particularly chickens, sheep and goats, are essential to sustain livelihoods and nutrition in rural areas of LMICs. They are particularly important to the livelihoods of women and their households given that women farmers in rural areas have few alternative ways of making a living. Preventable, deadly diseases such as Newcastle (ND) and Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), however, often decimate flocks of chicken and herds of sheep and goats. Vaccines to prevent these diseases exist, yet livestock keepers, particularly women in rural areas, infrequently use them. Without these interventions, the health and productivity of the animals are compromised and so is women’s ability to support their livelihoods and that of their households. Both technological and social factors limit access to and uptake of livestock vaccines. For example, technological factors may include a lack of cold chain infrastructure to transport the livestock vaccines. Socio-institutional factors may include informal rules in a community that forbid women from liaising with unrelated men, reducing their ability to obtain animal health services and vaccines from vets (who are almost exclusively men). The empowerment of women is often seen as a way of addressing gender-based disadvantage and providing women with the capabilities to leverage livestock to support their livelihoods and that of their families. Empowered women farmers are more likely to hear about, access, adopt, utilize and benefit from animal vaccines and healthier livestock. Facilitating women’s empowerment requires addressing women’s limited agency, access to resources, and opportunities. These in turn are influenced by restrictive gender norms, that shape informal rules of behavior and inequitable policies. Gender-responsive policy efforts bundled with interventions that transform restrictive norms could potentially support women’s engagement in the livestock sector and their potential to get empowered.
A synthesis of changes in women’s empowerment from Cultivate Africa’s Future agricultural development projects
(Brief, 2025-03-30) Malapit, Hazel J.; Galiè, Alessandra; Njiru, Nelly; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Omondi, Immaculate A.; Lecoutere, Els; Muchiri, Caroline
There are few examples of assessments of project portfolios that aim to support women’s empowerment in agriculture and livestock in low- and middle-income countries and that employ a consistent framework and standardized, validated measures of women’s empowerment across the entirety of the projects (see also Baltenweck et al. 2024). This brief synthesizes and presents lessons about women’s empowerment from the achievements of a portfolio of agricultural development projects, where empowerment was consistently measured across the portfolio using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI). We address two key research questions: (i) What did the agricultural development projects achieve in terms of women’s empowerment? How does this aggregate at the project portfolio level? (ii) What is the significance and some of the key applications of the results to inform future policies, program implementation, extension work and other agriculture-related interventions that aim to support women’s empowerment?
Repurposing fertilizer subsidies in India: An economywide modelling analysis
(Brief, 2025-03) Devi, Asha; Praveen, K. V.; Sharma, Kriti; Pal, Barun Deb; Singh, Alka; Barman, Subrata; Reddy, K. R.; Hanji, Shreya; Rao, Ch. Srinivasa
Between 1980 and 2023-pushed by green revolution technology and fertilizer subsidy policy-fertilizer consumption in India increased from 31.95 kg/ha to 136.05 kg/ha {FAI 2024). The fiscal burden of fertilizer subsidies in India has surged dramatically, increasing from INR 505 crores in 1980/1981 to INR 2,25,220 crores in 2022/2023 ( ibid). As of 2022/2023, the budgetary allocation for fertilizer subsidy was 1.02 percent of India's gross value added (GVA). Fertilizer subsidies have led to greater price increases for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers than for urea, making urea the preferred choice among farmers. This consequent overreliance on urea has created significant imbalances in soil nutrient composition, and subsidized urea is also often diverted to other industries undermining its intended benefit for the agricultural sector.

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