Water Data for Climate Resilience (WDCR)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/175551

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CMIP6 climate scenarios for climate adaptation studies in Zambia
(Abstract, 2024-12-31) Sahana, V.; Panjwani, Shweta; Amarnath, Giriraj
This study investigates provincial-level extreme weather conditions over Zambia using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate projections for various emission scenarios from 25 Global Climate Models (GCMs). Taylor diagram analysis is performed to identify the best-performing GCMs by evaluating precipitation and temperature variables with the observed datasets for the baseline period (1950-2014). Earlier studies have investigated the changes in precipitation and temperature variables alone. This study investigates the trends in Annual Precipitation, Annual temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) as well as Standardized Precipitaion Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the near future (2021-2060) and far future (2061-2100) using Sen’s Slope Estimator. While all the projected climate scenarios depict an increasing trend in the mean temperatures for both near and far future periods, upto 4˚C increase is expected at the end the 21st century under the worst-case scenario-SSP5-8.5. An overall decrease (upto -65 mm) in precipitation is expected in the near future and far future periods across the country, expect the North-eastern provinces. Corroborating with such a spike in climate conditions, the SPEI decreases by -1.16, -0.95, -0.86, -0.83 (near future, 2021-2060) and -1.36, -1.75, -1.98 and -1.99 (far future, 2061-2100) for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 respectively. Larger changes in SPEI is observed in Western, Southern, Northwestern and Lusaka provinces in both near and far future indicating worst drought conditions. The outcome from the present study provides a basis for undertaking provincial-level adaptation and mitigation measures under the evolving climate and framing policy interventions to combat climate change.
Multivariate return period and risk analysis of non-stationary extremes: dynamic drought severity-duration-frequency in India
(Journal Article, 2025-08) Sahana, V.; Mondal, A.
Under changing environmental conditions, the inclusion of non-stationarity in risk assessment of hydroclimatic extremes provides reliable estimates of quantiles or design levels; however, such assessments are usually limited to univariate analysis. A multivariate non-stationary framework is capable of considering the interdependencies between multiple characteristics of such extreme events. This study offers a new non-stationary multivariate risk assessment framework based on the concepts of Expected Number of Events (ENE) and Expected Waiting Time (EWT) that have worked well in the recent past for return level estimates of univariate extremes under non-stationarity. The proposed framework is first demonstrated on synthetically generated multi-attribute datasets to prove its effectiveness for both increasing and decreasing trends in extremes. Further, real-world applicability of the approach is presented for multivariate non-stationary drought risk assessment in India, where dynamic copulas are used to capture the joint transient behaviour of drought severity and duration. The design severity and duration for any given return period increases (decreases) for positive (negative) trend in drought attributes, implying underestimation (overestimation) of risk by the stationarity approach. Globally, changes in characteristics of hydroclimatic extreme events are increasingly reported, and such changes are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. The proposed framework considers time-varying nature of multiple characteristics for risk assessment of such extremes, and can aide in engineering design and environment management.
Strengthening anticipatory action with the Early Warning, Early Action and Early Finance (AWARE) Platform: a Gender Equality and Social Inclusion (GESI) lens for inclusive resilience
(Working Paper, 2025-08-20) Ariyabandu, Madhavi Malalgoda; Amarnath, Giriraj; Aheeyar, Mohamed M. M.; Alahacoon, Niranga; Kotuwegoda, S.
Anticipatory action (AA) is an emerging approach in disaster management that aims to reduce the humanitarian impacts of potential disasters through proactive and integrated measures. The AWARE platform, a component of the CGIAR initiative on Climate Resilience ('ClimBeR') and CGIAR Climate Action Program, facilitates the coordination of AA by connecting risk and vulnerability information, early warning systems, and proactive measures for mitigating disaster impacts. However, the effectiveness and equity of AA depend on reaching the most vulnerable groups in at-risk communities, which requires understanding and addressing their unique vulnerabilities and capacities. The integration of gender and social inclusion (GESI) in AA planning and execution is critical for maximizing the effectiveness and equity of interventions. The GESI strategy consists of two main elements: (i) inclusive participation and equitable access, and (ii) addressing vulnerabilities while strengthening the capacities of diverse community groups to manage disaster risk. Comprehensive social and gender analysis constitutes the basis for the strategic and effective planning and implementation of AA. This analysis informs the development of criteria, facilitates engagement with diverse community groups, and aids in the identification of suitable interventions. The AWARE platform supports risk governance, a key requisite for GESI, and empowers vulnerable groups by engaging in risk assessment, planning, and execution. Pre-arranging finances informed by context-specific social and gender analysis supports resource mobilization and allocation for inclusive programming and delivery. The guiding principles assigned to each building block of AA strives to navigate challenges and seize opportunities for GESI integration. By embedding the principles of inclusion and equity, the AWARE platform aims to ensure AA interventions are transformative and adhere to the principle of ‘Leave No One Behind.’
Enhancing drought resilience: evaluating the livelihood outcomes of a solar-powered water system in Hanzila Village, Southern Zambia
(Report, 2025-08-19) Mweemba, Carol; Amarnath, Giriraj; van Koppen, Barbara
Increasingly severe and frequent droughts significantly affect livelihoods, agriculture, and water security in Zambia, particularly in the Southern Province. In response, the ACTION Grant Program collaborated with the Ministry of Agriculture and the Monze Town Council to implement a locally led initiative to build resilience against droughts in the Hanzila community of Monze district. The project emphasized community participation, from inception until completion, to create locally tailored and sustainable solutions. This led to the installation of a multi-purpose solar-powered borehole in September 2023, providing water for drinking and domestic use, irrigation, and livestock through ten strategically located taps. In July 2024 an evaluation was initiated to assess the extent to which the project had met its developmental objectives of sustainably increasing the community’s resilience to droughts. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, the assessment revealed significant livelihood improvements. Reliance on unclean sources, such as scoop holes and open streams, was eliminated, with no household accessing water for drinking or domestic purposes from these sources. Households also reported reduced distances to access water and no longer spent time queuing. Furthermore, the proportion of households engaging in gardening activities increased from 23% to 69%, thereby enhancing food security, nutrition, and income. Additionally, 28% of cattle owners gained reliable access to water for livestock during the dry season, replacing the long trips they made to open streams. When asked about remaining hardships, households furthest from the taps still faced accessibility challenges. Where wealthier households could finance the extension of supply lines to their homesteads, poorer households could not. Further, irrigators still missed in-field irrigation tools. The study recommends scaling up similar locally led initiatives and technically supported models to ensure sustainable water security and climate adaptation for other drought-prone communities in Zambia.
What happens when a marginalized village gets water?
(Blog Post, 2025-08-01) Adhikari, Aashika; Shrestha, Shisher; Karki, Darshan; Khadka, Manohara; Niroula, Aayush
In the hills of Sindhupalchowk in Nepal, a newly installed solar lift system carries water uphill to reach the fields and people of a highly marginalized community, bringing relief from scarcity, reducing women’s daily burdens and improving livelihoods.

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