Economywide impact of avian flu in Nigeria – a dynamic CGE model analysis

Diao, Xinshen; Alpuerto, Vida; Nwafor, Manson. 2009. Economywide impact of avian flu in Nigeria – a dynamic CGE model analysis. Controlling avian flu and protecting people’s livelihoods in Africa and Indonesia; HPAI Research Brief 15. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162011

Since its emergence in Africa in 2006, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of the H5N1 subtype has spread rapidly to poultry farms in several countries, including Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria (FAO 2006; OIE 2006). In February 2006, Kaduna state in Nigeria was the first of 36 states to report the infection of poultry by H5N1 (Monne et al. 2008). By April 2006, more than 325,000 chickens in Nigeria alone were identified as having H5N1 virus; of these, 223,000 died of H5N1 infection and the rest were slaughtered as a control measure (You and Diao 2007). Since 2006, the infection has spread to 22 states in Nigeria (Monne et al. 2008), and there was recently one confirmed case in humans in the southern state of Lagos in February 2007 (Monne et al. 2008). Though the last outbreak occurred in October 2007, the spread of HPAI poses a challenge to the poultry industry in Nigeria (You and Diao 2007).