What do we know about the future of wheat?

Kruseman, Gideon; Sonder, Kai; Pequeno, Diego; Reynolds, Matthew; and Frija, Aymen. 2025. What do we know about the future of wheat? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Selected Food Commodities? Chapter 34, Pp. 201-207. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175532

Wheat has been and will remain a major component of diets globally. It accounts for an average of 18 percent of total energy intake and 19 percent of total protein intake globally. It is the primary staple food for 1.5 billion resource-constrained people in the Global South.

Wheat represents 29 percent of the global cereals area and 14 percent of the global cropland area. It is an important crop in most agricultural areas of the world except the humid tropics and is less prominent in sub-Saharan Africa. Compared to rice and maize, it is more drought- and cold-tolerant.

Wheat will continue to be an important source of protein in 2050, even under changing diets. In meat-based diets, wheat is often part of animal feed. In plant-based diets, wheat is a source of protein.

Climate change offers both challenges and opportunities for wheat. Areas previously unsuitable for wheat production may have a comparative advantage under climate change. Similarly, some traditional wheat-growing areas may become less suitable for wheat production under climate change, especially due to heat stress. While Jägermeyr et al. (2021) indicate it can be beneficial for many existing wheat-growing areas, the impacts, for example, of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, warmer night temperatures, and other weather anomalies are likely to counteract some of the benefits.

Some of the poorer regions of the world are historically considered to be wheat-deficit areas and will increasingly depend on imports. This is a key factor in Africa, where there is less wheat production and wheat consumption is increasing with rising incomes.