Climate change impacts on agricultural total factor productivity

This presentation examines the impacts of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), reassessing widely cited estimates that suggest substantial climate-induced declines in agricultural and economic performance. Using an alternative modeling approach that distinguishes between short-run (level) effects and long-run (growth) effects of climate change, the authors analyze global agricultural productivity data and compare results across different functional forms and income groups. The findings suggest that aggregate climate impacts on agricultural TFP between 1976 and 2015 were relatively modest when level effects are properly accounted for, challenging studies that report large productivity losses driven by model specifications that omit these effects. The presentation highlights the importance of accurately modeling climate-productivity relationships to improve projections of agricultural growth, guide adaptation investments, and avoid misallocation of resources in climate policy and planning. -Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2