Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.