What do we know about the future of water in food systems?

Ringler, Claudia; McCartney, Matthew P.; and Hafeez, Mohsin. 2025. What do we know about the future of water in food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 10, Pp. 54-59. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175232

Demand is growing while supply is uncertain: Globally, the demand for water in agriculture and food systems is growing, alongside competing needs in other sectors. Freshwater consumption is projected to increase by 17 percent between 2020 and 2050, most of it for irrigation, and almost all of it in low- and middle-income countries. At the same time, water availability is becoming increasingly uncertain due to climate extremes, long-term climate change, pollution, and land use changes such as deforestation and wetland degradation. The rising variability and scarcity contribute to competition among different water users.

The water supply-demand gap must be addressed: As the gap between water supply and demand increases, both tested and new technologies, policies, and institutions are needed to improve water productivity and efficiency. At the same time, more research is needed to identify solutions that mitigate the negative impacts of water shortages, pollution, and poor water management on food systems as well as to curb the adverse impacts arising from inefficient and wasteful food systems on water resources and the environment. Agriculture and food systems drive many of the pressures on freshwater ecosystems. According to the IUCN Red List, 25 percent of freshwater species are threatened with extinction (IUCN 2024). This loss of biodiversity threatens not only the species themselves but also the vital services they and their ecosystems provide to humanity.

With water a connector across sectors, new approaches to management are critical: With rising water scarcity, decisions in areas such as climate, nutrition, energy, and trade policy will increasingly shape the future of water in food systems. To improve water management in food systems, a more integrated, forward-looking approach is needed that considers the broader implications of policies and investments across multiple sectors. In addition, strengthening governance and institutions and empowering farmers, as key stewards of water resources, are essential for sustainable outcomes.