How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Guatemala? Climate Security Pathway Analysis

Ferré Garcia, T.; Madurga-Lopez, I.; Medina, L.; Penel, C.; Carneiro, B.; Liebig, T.; Läderach, P.; Pacillo, G. (2023) How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Guatemala? Climate Security Pathway Analysis. Climate Security Observatory Series, 2023/4. 21 p.

This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Guatamala, using a pathway analysis. Two main pathways are identified: 1. Livelihood and Food Insecurity: Climate change impacts may exacerbate socioeconomic conditions leading to vulnerability in households dependent on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, and further contribute to food and livelihood insecurity. This, in turn, may spur economic migration towards urban centres inside and outside the country. The lack of access to alternative livelihood options may increase engagement in illicit activities and recruitment by criminal groups, indirectly contributing to the strength of organized crime networks active in the border regions with Mexico and Honduras. 2. Resource Availability and Access: The impact of climate change on water, land and food systems has been observed and is predicted to further reduce agricultural land productivity, decrease key cash crop yields, as well as hinder the availability and access to natural resources in Guatemala. Increased competition over natural resource access and distribution may lead to tensions and conflicts.